Comments

  • Ukraine Crisis
    Yep, right from the orange mouth itself:



    He is really not mentally capable for his job.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    Joining the EU means give part of sovereignty and many things. I get it. But that's the point. Share the best of each country. We were in war for centuries, and look now. That's what I wish Europeans could see and understand. Our old continent already suffered from wars and dictatorships, so no one is entitled to give us lessons of how we should do the things up.javi2541997
    But we do understand it. It's a happy confederation of sovereign states, that tries desperately be something it cannot be, a real federal union.

    Let's go through just what we get from EU and the monetary union:

    1) With the euro, the country risk is lower, hence we have far lower interest rates than we would otherwise have. That's a plus. We cannot use the devaluation cycle to prop up our export industries (and in your case, make Spain cheaper for tourists). That a plus, that also has minuses.

    2) We don't face our problems alone and have to negotiate all as smaller entities. We don't have to face either Russia, but also the US as far more smaller countries.

    3) Moving here or especially pensioners moving from here to sunny Spain has it plus sides. These people do bring jobs to Spain, they aren't there to use your welfare programs. This is a plus when open borders that we have don't make a problem. And surprisingly many Spaniards work in Finland.

    4) And then the obvious: other Europeans countries aren't there cut us into pieces if we have internal problems. Just think how lovely it would have been, when you had your internal Constitutional Crisis of 2017-2018 and the other European countries would have sided their favorite side as during the Spanish Civil War. Some would have backed Catalonia and some Spain because, why not? Time to squeeze some benefits from your dire situation. And once you kill the first people, then people adapt to the "new reality" of OK, this is war. Last time in your civil war about half a million perhaps died. Well, that didn't happen and in the EU didn't happen. And we aren't thinking that our EU members would be thinking of starting a war with us, just as we know Sweden isn't going to declare us an "artificial country" and start to preach how the natural state is that Finland is part of Sweden as it has been in history. Or something similarly crazy, as we are now hearing from Putin on Ukraine.

    So there are indeed benefits to the EU already.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Daily Mail and Sun seem to running with this Trump "peace plan", which obviously is made in the Kremlin. Sceptical if it really would be so. What is missing is the part that Ukraine has to choose somebody else than Zelenskyi in the next elections. But US troops withdrawing from the Baltics is ominous.

    AP-17-02-UKRAINE-PEACE-TALKS-v3.jpg?w=960[/img]

    Molotov-Ribbentrop pack II.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    On the other hand, I would ask Norway to join the EU. It is not understandable that this country had a NATO secretary, but their citizens have no voice in European chambers. How can we allow that? Furthermore, they are very clever at managing natural resources, as they usually do with oil in their sea.javi2541997
    Let's remember that membership either to NATO or the EU is voluntary. Norway was in talks in joining the EU, did weigh the pros and cons and decided to be away. Just as Switzerland, I can understand them: they would be paying much and not getting much. And Norway was in NATO.

    If NATO goes into the dustbin of history, I am sure that Norway will then do a security arrangements with Europe.

    Europe has to wake up is the unreliability of the US as an ally under Trump. Heck, even some Americans are saying this to us in this forum. The unfortunate thing is to try to simply avoid this fact and think that everything is just fine, when it surely isn't. Especially not to do anything, because it would upset Trump.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    It's amazing such news isn't picked up more broadly. I hadn't heard about those sabotage attempts.Benkei
    Well, if Germany won't be willing to stand up for it, then they'll not make a huge issue with it. You would have to respond to it. Do you take it up to NATO?

    Remember that for example the Eagle S episode when Finland intervened, boarded and confiscated the tanker, it happened during Biden's watch. Finland got a lot of praise for that. But that was the NATO with the US under Biden.

    1*lsejCpMBt5XOq_wi4jh55g.jpeg

    It's clear as day whose behind the cabal cutting and it cannot be "an accident", because cabal cuttings of cabals didn't happen at least in my lifetime in the Gulf of Finland, and not with the frequency of today. Yet the investigations "are ongoing". Finland won't say that Russia is behind it. Just as Germany won't say Russia is behind the sabotage of it's surface combatants.

    Why?

    Because you have the real Putin-apologist in Trump, who likely would lash out to Germany or Finland of trying to break his peace negotiations with Putin. Remember that he has never criticized his friend Putin. All this nonsense that he would be tough on Russia is absolute horse shit. When you have already Trump saying that the war was the fault of Ukraine, how do you think he'll go with Germany whining that their navy ships are sabotaged?

    Wouldn't go well with the "Putin wants peace" message that Trump is repeating. Trump wants ties to Russia to be opened, to get Russia to the G8. That Russia would be sabotaging those annoying allies wouldn't go so well for Trump.

    I have to remind that there are sane people in the US. Many Republicans still hold the view that Putin is a warcriminal and the US should stand with Ukraine. Likely Marco Rubio is trying to do his best to make of the situation. But nobody, nobody will stop Trump.

    Europe should understand that the US is an untrustworthy ally that under Trump will fuck everything up.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    So this is it. The great betrayal has begun. The USA will walk away from Ukraine and align itself with Putin against NATO. This is, of course, even to Republicans, a complete outrage, but who's going to stand up?Wayfarer
    Aligning itself with Putin against NATO is the real issue here. But Trump simply doesn't get it.

    At Doha peace talks Trump made a disastrous peace treaty (which Biden then fullfilled). Yet that was just Afghanistan. And then the US had already lost Central Asia to Russia. Now if Trump makes another disastrous peace treaty (or overtures for that), next in line is Europe.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    No matter who leads, I bet they’re beholden to Brussels.NOS4A2
    What do you mean by that? Just remember that if Brussels or basically EU bureaucracy is whimsical and inefficient, the integration process still does have it merits. Especially after we witnessed what happened to the UK and the absolute disaster that was. Nope, post-Brexit UK was a proof that in the end, the positive aspects overlie the negative ones.

    Do not fall in with your populism ideology on everything. European integration wasn't made because it serves financial gains to someone, it emerged because of the millions of Europeans killed in two World Wars. Our continental civil wars had just become so lethal that a dramatic change had to be done.

    I don’t know why they never disengaged years ago, especially given the thankless anti-US sentiment which seems regnant there.NOS4A2
    Actually, there hasn't been anti-US sentiment in Europe, just as there hasn't been anti-US sentiment in Canada. Of course, that can change, even in the country you live thanks to Trump.

    And now, given the totalitarian trends of those governments, it seems like the perfect time to wean yourself off the tit. Don’t you think?NOS4A2
    Just what governments are you referring to? The US with the totalitarian Trump administration which doesn't care a shit about the separation of powers? Perhaps.

    It’s bad when Trump does it but we’re silent when the EU does it, it seems. All they have to do is be fair and they have nothing to fear, but I don’t think fair trade is in their capacity.NOS4A2
    I would think that now as Trump is hellbent in ruining everything, the EU should approach Canada and perhaps also Mexico. These three entities should start working on trade between themselves in order to compensate for the damage Trump is doing. I think it's extremely reckless to trust the US on anything. Trump isn't a glitch, it's what Americans want and that makes the US a very untrustworthy trading partner.

    Canada could join the EU? Perhaps! :grin:

  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    Really, one of the first things we ought to do, isn't to focus on the physical wars but the information war.Benkei
    Do not forget the hybrid war that is going around. That is far more serious than the information war. We are already having hybrid attacks here quite constantly. And where do you put the fact that the German navy has come out and said that it's naval vessels have been sabotaged:

    (The Maritime Executive) The German Navy has confirmed that unnamed saboteurs have attempted to damage more than one of its warships, and media reports from Germany suggest that at least two vessels have been affected.

    In 2024, a German Navy minehunter was damaged by unknown personnel while in shipyard in Rostock. Several cable harnesses were severed, and an investigation is under way into a suspected sabotage attack, according to Spiegel. The Rostock prosecutor's office has confirmed that it is investigating the case.

    Late last year, an unknown saboteur dumped dozens of kilos of metal filings into the oil sumps of the main engines aboard the brand new corvette Emden, according to multiple German media outlets. The contamination was detected and cleaned out, but if it had not been spotted, it would have quickly destroyed the engines.

    Last week, German Navy Vice Adm. Jan Christian Kaack told the press that "more than one unit" had been sabotaged, without going into specifics. Troublingly, he added that German naval bases have reported a pattern of attempted security perimeter breaches, both from the shoreside and from the waterside. He added that uniformed German Navy personnel have been approached in public while en route from base to their homes.

    "The growing threat from Russia is more urgent at the beginning of 2025 than it was two years ago," Kaack told reporters, without specifying whether the suspected security threats within Germany were Russian.

    The suspected attacks are just part of a broader pattern of sabotage targeting Europe's security forces and its infrastructure. In early 2024, three German-Russian dual nationals were arrested on suspicion of planning an attack on the U.S. military base at Grafenwohr, a training facility for Ukrainian servicemembers. The main suspect, identified as Dieter S., stands accused of plotting an extensive series of arson and explosive attacks within Germany, with targets including rail lines and a manufacturing plant.
    (See here)

    This will only increase now. It is telling if the news like above won't be picked up by mainstream news. And when it comes to information warfare, we have to remember that the information war has effect when the topic is actually something that the people would feel to be changed even without the topic. One of the things the populists and especially the Trump administration will try to do is portray Europe as being stuck in pre-2016 thinking. For example the migration issue. Never will they admit that actually that European countries have changed their policies. Greece doesn't allow refugees coming over Turkey and we even have closed our border totally with Russia. Our prime minister admitted that yes, it is problematic for our laws and international agreements, but it has to be done because of security. And were we reprimanded by the EU? Of course not. But JD Vance can scold Europe for not handling the migration crisis, naturally. As if the populists would be the only one's taking this seriously.

    I think that we as Europeans on this forum would really need quite many new threads because yes, it has been worse than even you anticipated. Like should the EU have it's own nuclear deterrent? Quo vadis NATO?
  • The Musk Plutocracy
    How is it possible that all of Joe Biden's executive orders were wonderful and all of Trump's are evil?philosch
    Presidents giving executive orders simply shows their lack of capability to put through actual legislation.

    No, I do notice the pro-democrat bias. That has been for a long time, yet it simply doesn't matter so much if you take just a little bit of time to look at things yourself. Best way is simply to read the actual speeches of the politicians, not the commentary of journalists what the politician said. In the time of internet, that isn't so hard to do. I've always been skeptic when some party is called "fascist" or "extreme-right". The true extreme-right cannot hide itself. Even the populist comes in many levels and how they respect laws and norms of a republic differs.

    As for the State of Canada or Greenland or Gaza, I think that is all silliness, I believe he's trolling to get people to soften up for negotiations.philosch
    Many try to desperately promote this view, but I think it's wrong. Trump really means what he says. Once you look at his actions from this viewpoint, it actually makes sense. Likely he won't go so far to order a military operation against Denmark, but likely Denmark won't give a message that it's ready defend it's territory even by military means. Denmark is just desperately hoping that Trump will move on and forget the whole idea (just as Panama hopes). That got Denmark off the hook last time.

    But have any journalist ask Trump about his aspirations about Greenland, and he will, until the last day of his presidency, say that it's on the table and the means to get Greenland are open too. He won't back down.

    Or just look at what Trump wanted for Ukraine to sign to:

    (Meduza) The agreement proposed by Donald Trump’s administration granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s natural resources would give Washington control over the country’s mineral and oil and gas reserves, ports, and unspecified “other infrastructure,” The Telegraph reported, citing a draft of the contract.

    The Trump administration is seeking 50 percent of Ukraine’s current revenues from resource extraction, as well as half the value of “all new [resource extraction] licenses issued to third parties.” Such revenues would be subject to a lien in favor of the U.S. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children,’” The Telegraph quoted a source close to the negotiations as saying.

    The agreement also states that “for all future licenses, the U.S. will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals.”

    The Telegraph notes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s resources back in September, hoping to attract American investment that would make another Russian invasion more difficult. Some of Ukraine’s mineral deposits lie near the front lines in the east or in Russian-occupied territory.

    “He probably did not expect to be confronted with terms normally imposed on aggressor states defeated in war,” The Telegraph wrote. “They are worse than the financial penalties imposed on Germany and Japan after their defeat in 1945. […] If this draft were accepted, Trump’s demands would amount to a higher share of Ukrainian GDP than reparations imposed on Germany at the Versailles Treaty.”

    Zelenskyi refused the paper, especially not being given any kind of security assurances. So there's your ally in Trump. But perhaps this should be reported more favorably and more positively for Trump.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Last I heard your president was raving with celebrities and taking drug tests.NOS4A2
    That was the former prime minister Sanna Marin, a social democrat, quite a clueless character, yet let's say an average politician that handled COVID and NATO-membership well:
    sannapieni.jpg?s=a0d9d1b3118e64143dd9c2f9ec5d57c3&fit=crop

    Our new President is Alexander Stubb, a conservative, studied in the US, ex-foreign minister and ex-prime minister and a far better politician that is quite apt in international politics.
    ?source=https%3A%2F%2Ftvmedia.image-service.eu-north-1-prod.vmnd.tv%2Fapi%2Fv2%2Fimg%2F65d1fbb3e4b092ea946fcc7f-1708260399500%3Flocation%3Dmain&width=600

    It's like confusing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with Marco Rubio. But hey, both are American politicians with Latin heritage, so not much difference anywhere in their political views or abilities, right?

    JD’s historic speech wasn’t for Europeans, it was for the stuffy bureaucrats in the room, many of whom were wearing military uniforms for some reason. In fact Vance defended the European citizens who were roundly silenced by the weak commissars of European governments for the smallest of speech and thought crimes. Does anyone in the EU do the same?NOS4A2
    You think this stupid culture war rant goes anywhere near the severity of basically what just happened? How clueless can you really can be here? The country that is by a straight line 9 kilometers from myself is hellbent on building it's lost empire back by attacking it's neighbors and cutting sea cabals connecting my country to others just 40 kilometers from me. Yet then culture warrior JD Vance calls that "Russia isn't our threat", but the stupid brain dead culture war? Oh, because there's these excesses that have happened to individuals, all that culture war DEI stupidity as that would be the most important this and then he's rooting for German party of his liking?

    Above all, this was a security conference, so that's why there were so many military people around, which shouldn't come to you as a surprise to NOS4A2. What I found was that Vance, as Trump, isn't interested in security policy. Nope, fuck it. Put the comments of Vance, Hegseth and Trump together and Europe has to understand that at least for this time, the US has by itself given up on it's Superpower status and seems to be doing the bidding of Putin.

    Europe really has to take care of itself and has to simply to stop listening to Trump. The US is no more the leader of the West so we really shouldn't listen to it at all. Just let him alone with his tweets and tantrums. Likely Trump will get his way and get out of NATO.

    The only thing the EU should do is to approach Canada and get a trade deal with it as to deal with the inevitable Trump tariffs hitting. We absolutely cannot rely on US gas exports. Canada would be a far better and trustworthy trading partner.
  • European or Global Crisis?
    It's an effort to bring the kind of political polarization to Europe that is happening in the US.

    Unfortunately, foreigners openly rooting for one political party may backfire quite much. Just as it would backfire if Europeans would be openly rooting for Democrats and accuse just like Vance of everything that Trump is doing. The simple fact is that many democrats wouldn't like it.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    I disagree. It has very much engaged the Europeans.Amity

    Especially at the German elections, which rather upset both the acting administration and the opposition (only with the AfD cheering for the support they).

    Well, perhaps European countries should start to root for the Democrats to take back their country from the threat of tyranny of Trump and Trump's efforts to dismantle the Republic. That I guess would warm the Atlantic ties, right?

    People try still to be diplomatic and to work with the Trump government. That's the point here.
  • The Musk Plutocracy
    They are only making recommendations.philosch
    Really? Lol.

    https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/US-government-TIC-2024-11-18-share.png

    Just to give ONE example:

    An air traffic controller told the Associated Press that workers affected at the FAA included radar, landing and navigational aid maintenance.

    Spero said messages began arriving after 7 pm on Friday.

    'We are troubled and disappointed by the administration’s decision to fire FAA probationary employees PASS represents without cause nor based on performance or conduct,' he said.

    'Several hundred employees have been impacted with messages being sent from an ‘exec order’ Microsoft email address, not an official .gov email address.'

    One FAA worker alleged he had been targeted because of comments he made about Musk's companies.

    'Before I was fired, the official DOGE Facebook page started harassing me on my personal Facebook account after I criticized Tesla and Twitter,' Charles Spitzer-Stadtlander wrote on LinkedIn, describing how he was fired after midnight on Saturday.

    'Less than a week later, I was fired, despite my position allegedly being exempted due to national security.'

    The dismissals come at a critical time for the FAA, which already faced a shortage of controllers.

    For years, officials have warned that overworked and understaffed air traffic control systems were an accident waiting to happen.

    But you live in your dreamworld of DOGE just making "recomendations".


    I'm not even a Trump supported per say, just don't like propaganda and agenda driven reporting on either side.philosch
    So the media shouldn't report on what Trump is doing by executive orders, not by following things as they are usually are done in a Republic with separation of powers?

    Do notice, that many commentators do agree that there is waste. Here it's really about the method.

    And where do you put the ideas of Canada being the 51st state or the US annexing Greenland, even possibly by force? Or how about the Mar-a-Gaza proposal?
  • The Musk Plutocracy
    - my prediction is that DOGE will come to be seen as the most egregious and idiotic blunder in the history of the government of the United States of America.Wayfarer
    Well, if you can or will save your Republic.

    It can also seen as the shrewd radical way to dismantle government bureaucracy... as the Trumpists will hope it to be. Who cares that it doesn't go "by the book", Congress is the problem, right?

    Because the way in a Republic, the thing would have gone like this: Trump would have made Elon and the other guy to look through government spending. They would do this for several months. Then they would forward their findings to the President, who then would approach the Congress to change the existing laws and spending by new legislation, that should pass both houses. And this would take time. Far more than the less than a month that now has gone. But this would be the case, if Trump and his followers would want the Republic to operate as the Constitution says.

    But they don't. The don't give a fuck about the Constitution.

    As I've said, the Republicans will embrace the separation of powers, the role of Congress and it's oversight and the fundamental structures of a Republic ONLY if they lose the Presidency. Yet otherwise they are totally happy in turning the President to the role of a Caesar. It's really remarkable as how it's playing out in the US compared to the history of Rome turning from the Republic to an autocracy. (Of course you simply cannot talk about Caeser or Augustus in the same level as Trump)

    Yet the rules in a Republic sould be same for everybody, which ultimately shows that Trump-Republicans have absolutely no respect for the Constitution of for what a Republic stands for.

    Every American who doesn't understand that the country is in a Constitutional crisis is either ignorant or simply doesn't care at all about their own Constitution.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Nothingfrank
    History or reality begs to differ.

    Monetary economics is something that people should know. It truly impacts everybody.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    What?frank
    Think about it. If all the debt that you put out is bought by your own central bank, what will that mean to the dollar?

    And by all means this isn't just about the US. Everybody is doing the same.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Think again where the public debt is.

    treasury-debt.png?w=1024
    US-government-TIC-2024-11-18-share.png

    Do notice, that already the largest owner of US treasury debt is the Central Bank itself. When that is the majority ownership, guess what happens at some instance?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Sorry about the break up. I hope the US and Europe can still be friends.BitconnectCarlos
    Me too, but this is the problem with populist foreign policy. I really would hope that this is just one low point between Europe and the US and things can get better. Sorry, if I'm too pessimistic.

    Populism already starts with a juxtaposition of us against them, namely the "real people" against the "rich elite". That can easily be turned into prejudice, fear and hatred about foreigners.

    Likely the door will be kept open, but unfortunately it does seem as the damage already has been done. The Europeans now know they cannot count on Trump being an ally.

    Furthermore, do notice that the reason for European integration in the first place was WW1 and WW2 and the millions of dead Europeans from those two World Wars. Not just an idea of economic growth and trade agreements for the elites. Yes, unfortunately the integration process has been organized by bureaucrats in Brussells, but that doesn't refute the basic reasons for the integration process. Here if someone questions the territorial sovereignty of a nation state is like opening the Pandora's box. You will have in no time people hostile to each other. And Russia has gone over that border. I'm now in my summer place about 20 or so kilometers from the borders and it's totally empty with nothing moving over the border. That hit extremely hard this border community, but that doesn't matter at all as the stakes are far higher than any economic benefit there would be from trade.

    The EU has a combined GDP of $22bn and Russia has around $4bn so I don't see why the countries of Europe can't band together to deter Russia.BitconnectCarlos
    Yes, but notice the real danger here. Once Europe does indeed get to the defense spending levels of 5% and that happens in a new institution outside NATO, what does that look like?

    Let's just remember that the US and UK were allies during WW2. Still, the US had War plan Red in case of a war in the interwar years until as late as 1939. Quite similar in seriousness to the famous "War plan Orange".

    That happens when two large countries aren't allies.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    I think all large banks keep foreign currency reserves.frank
    Reserves of private banks aren't the same as the reserves kept by the central bank. Private banks use the given currency of the country, they don't have to worry about the current account.

    Only in Russia the accounts of the private banks are also the accounts of the government. No really, even before Putin, it was like Gazprom financed the war in Chechnya during the Yeltsin era, because Gazprom had money and the Russian government didn't.

    I'm not sure that if the US Navy goes to fight the Chinese, it will be solely financed by Merril Lynch or Chevron.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    JD Vance’s speech to Europe’s elites was a dressing-down of the old establishment for their totalitarianism. In it he reiterated what he thought were the shared values of freedom, the ones both purported to fight for in the latter half of the last century, all of which seems to have disappeared in the next.NOS4A2
    Yeah.

    Coming from an administration that itself is a word police erasing wrong words government website and punishes new agencies if the dare to talk about "Gulf of Mexico". Yet that isn't the ironic thing here, it's that an administration which doesn't care at all about the separation of powers and simply uses executive orders as coming from an absolute monarch then comes to preach about the freedom of speech with making overtures to the elections of specific countries.

    So hell your freedom in JD Vance's speech, it doesn't have anything to do with freedom or democracy or what a republic and a justice state should stand for. Everything is just partisanship, supporting your party and there are no values at all, just beneficial and advantageous political positions. Only when it would be a democrat president, you would be for the limitation of executive power and giving back the Congress the role it has (assuming you would have majority there) and would be worried about the separation of powers or the independence of the courts. But when you have the power, you are voting to have the Caesar. Because evidently the Republic doesn't work.

    And many, including my own president, made the correct conclusion of JD's scolding: this was far more for the American audience (people like you) than it was to engage Europeans.

    Vance mentioned that the Romanian courts annulled the election and upended democracy when the populist candidate won, on the premise that Russian misinformation promoted him.NOS4A2
    And the elections are rescheduled for May. So your pro-Putin candidate can win then, if the Romanians really want him.

    Former liberal leader Crin Antonescu, the candidate announced by the coalition formed by the Social Democratic Party, the National Liberal Party, and Hungarian minority party UDMR for the presidential elections, stated that far-right politician Călin Georgescu should be able to run in the upcoming elections. According to the schedule agreed by the ruling coalition leaders, the presidential elections should be held again in May.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    How do Americans benefit from the dollar being used in global trade?frank
    How? You really don't know?

    This is the problem. Because your whole system of debt spending relies on this!!!

    You don't have to care about a possible current account crisis. You don't have to worry about foreign currency reserves. Here's an important part from the link above:

    Common sense suggests that if a country fritters away its borrowed foreign funds on spending that yields no long-term productive gains, then its ability to repay—its basic solvency—might come into question. This is because solvency requires that the country be willing and able to generate (eventually) sufficient current account surpluses to repay what it has borrowed to finance the current account deficits.

    Just think about it this way. Assume that your government needed money, but had to take a loan in euros, and only then changed this to dollars to pay salaries of government workers or to pay social security. Well, evidently the government would have to then to pay that loan back in euros, and you would have to have a foreign currency reserve. Now if you would then just do what you do now, print money, and take that debt from the central bank, this would weaken the dollar. Then those euro-debt would rise in value and be an even bigger problem. You aren't in charge of euros, the ECB is.

    But as your dollar is the reserve currency, you don't have to give a fuck about this. You can always print more dollars! Because crucial things like oil are bought and sold in US dollars, even by third party countries. Because they are OK with this, because of the whole goddam "international ruled based order", which your brain dead president is now trying to destroy, because somehow it's bad for you.

    So don't think it's just the awesomeness of the US economy, it's basically what your greatest generation gave to you by winning WW2 and being the only major country around that wasn't bombed to shit. Keynes tried to talk some role for the pound or the idea of Bancor, but no, it would be the US dollar as the reserve currency.

    And this is why you should understand that when Putin or Xi Jinping talk about the unfair edge given to the dollar, it's a direct attack against the US.

    Why Putin loves gold. They have that in Russia too, and you cannot print it.
    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSMgp4uYRbE6kN2ViP9Ec0WJg__kO9CsI1h4w&s
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Which is in line with the domestic political policy, particularly via DOGE. The policy is not one of reform, it's one of revolution. And it's possible the people who provide the philosophical underpinnings of this revolution (who do not include Trump himself) do not actually envision rebuilding any of the things that are being torn apart.Echarmion
    Since Trump basically is incapable of getting laws through, he just goes with executive orders. Just ask yourself: what legislation did he get through last time? The tax cuts were basically a thing done by the GOP with Trump giving only the signature. So he will go with executive orders and with DOGE, which has absolutely no legal basis. And Elon knows this. Hence the extreme hurry with the revolution... as the case of firing those responsible of nuclear weapons showed. Or that when the USAID assistance to Mozambique was to a place there called "Gaza", then we got this ludicrous idea of condoms being sent to Hamas. But hey, it's a great tweet and Trumpist will share it!

    It all comes down to seeing the US government itself as the enemy of the American people. Nothing else explains this better. Anarcho-libertarianism at it's worst. Or anarcho-libertarianism as the figleaf for a naked power grab. And notice just how many nowdays refer to the richers people as "oligarchs" in the US. Actually that was earlier not so popular.

    And when nobody will stop him and the Congress won't raise a finger when obviously it's position is severely undermined, Trump will continue. Today you have a Congress of pundits fearful of Trump's retaliation, while Democrats are totally ignored. That's what you get with decades of gerrymandering.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    I’m wondering if the result of the US - Russia conference will amount to the US walking away from supporting Ukraine.Wayfarer
    It can happen. Even is likely. At worst, Trump can walk out of NATO if he feels like it.

    I think James Ker-Lindsay put it quite well.

    Trump is lazy and intellectually lazy. He will want a deal quick and if it's then Ukraine saying no and Europeans saying something else, he might just walk away from everything. Personally I think Trump's fixation with Putin and his hate of woke Europeans will prevail. He truly doesn't see any importance at NATO. Trump is totally incapable of understanding that he is giving Americas foes the best birthday present ever by dismantling the Superpower status of the US.

    Who are the foes and friends here is blurred with the Trump administration, because Trump himself doesn't think about the issue.

    JD Vance's Trumpian speech at Munich, which likely was more for the Fox News listeners back at home, does show the rift here. That an administration which itself is banning the use of words and punishing organizations that don't use the term "Gulf of America" is here scolding and reprimanding of Europe and saying that Europe is forgetting free speech and that is a bigger threat than Russia. Or Pete Hegseth apparently totally incapable of answering a question if Russia also has to make concessions in the peace negotiations, but was quick to give away Ukraine's negotiating positions even before the negotiations is telling.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    The NATO alliance was beneficial to both sides.Tobias
    Perhaps the past tense is apt here.

    But seems that many Americans really aren't seeing what is happening here.

    Of course they did. They supported the dollar as world currency, they supported the US arms industry with billions in orders, their greatest scientists went to US universities and they rhetorically backed US interventions.Tobias

    Americans don't seem to understand how much of their prosperity did come from role that the US dollar was given and how much their role in the global arena was based on allies and soft power. They just assume that because of the awesomeness of the US the dollar is used as globally reserve currency. First and foremost, one doesn't need a reserve currency. One can have a basket of currencies and the foreign exchange market is to handle. Not having a reserve currency has been the standard for nearly all of history. It's an exception that has benefited the US for a long time.

    And with those alliances the US the military-industrial complex has prospered hugely. Now if that alliance is called into question, Europe will not buy arms from an entity, that it cannot be sure will be there to give possible needed supplies. US has become instantly a very questionably source. Yes, Europe will increase it's defense spending, already defense spending is put to be not included in budgetary and debt limits. But this is because the US cannot be trusted and those euros will go into building up the European defense industry.

    I think there's no example in history where a leader of a prominent country voluntary gives his power away to his enemies breaks up the alliance system which earlier it has worked so much for.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Should we expect the Putin excuse-makers and apologists soon?jorndoe
    As Trump is doing the bidding for Putin, they don't have to.

    Trump is likely impatient to get the "peace agreement" on Ukraine as he promised, which totally plays for Putin. Ukraine has to do concessions, Putin, his dear friend, doesn't. Simply put it, Putin can simply continue the war. Bully Trump won't put Putin any limits, but he has the ability to threaten Ukraine.

    Hopefully European leaders get their act up as they are now meeting in Paris. They have to understand (and likely do understand, but won't say it) that the Superpower status of the US just ended and Russia is achieving it's greatest victory. The US is run now by a president whose power has gone to his head and hapless weak dicks that will ruin American leadership and status in this World.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Jesus. No wonder the country is broke.NOS4A2

    Your country isn't broke from 22 million dollars. Not even the 40 billion. It's the mandatory part plus the interest on the debt. Not the discretionary side.

    Oh sorry, I mean the United States of America. You are living in Canada, right, so it's not your country.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    It’s called diplomacy,NOS4A2
    :rofl:

    Nothing close to diplomacy. In diplomacy you engage the sides, not leave them out and decide on yourself. And the attempts on war-profiteering are made by Trump. This is Trump's at what he does best: makes lousy deals.

    So Trump will meet his dear cherished friend Vlad and they will make then a suggestion, which Trump will then try to force Zelenskyi to accept or face punishment.

    Sure, hopefully there is enough spine in Europe not to leave the Ukrainians alone. At least there's support here. I know some that have fought in Ukraine. I salute them, they are real heroes.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Assisting in the victory of Putin will play only to Putin and the Chinese. What a weak dick loser Trump is.

    Oh I found it myself. Zelenskyi publicly stated how he rejected the Trumpian nonsense:

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday, February 15, he blocked a Donald Trump-led deal that would give the US access to vast amounts of Ukrainian natural resources as it lacked "security guarantees" for Kyiv and "does not protect us." Zelensky's announcement came a day after Ukrainian officials gave the US a draft of the agreement and three days after Trump called Russia's Vladimir Putin, with Europe and Kyiv alarmed the pair will try to end the conflict without them. Trump, a businessman leader highly critical of the money Washington has sent to Ukraine to fight Russia's invasion, has pushed for access to rare earths in Ukraine.

    So now we know. Trump would hand over Ukraine if he would get rare earths of Ukraine (or something). Putin will happily give his sidekick that.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    The Western elan of exporting democracy and universal human rights to the Rest is transmogrifying more and more into importing authoritarianism and despise for universal human rights from the Rest. The irony.neomac
    I would correct that to "The American elan". The Republicans are happily cheering to this. They will remember things in democracy like the separation of powers and corruption only if a democrat is the President. As if they lacking any morals.

    Seems that the dividing line starts to be Russia-Trump vs Ukraine & Europe.

    Because it likely is worse than I thought.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Trump has proposed American ownership of some of Ukraine's rare earth mineral deposits, and wants to send American troops to stake these claims.Metaphysician Undercover
    Do you have something for reference on this?

    It's like selling the house for way under the market value, but then arguing that you benefit greatly from the "deal", because the new house owner accepted that you can use the lawnmower. :vomit:
  • The Musk Plutocracy
    Musk’s misinterpretation went viral, amplified by Trump as proof of corrupt ties between the “radical left” media and the “deep state.” — Washington Post
    Not the first time when Trump finds "waste", "the deepstate" and "lousy agreements" from the decisions his own previous administration did. But who cares about the little things as those...
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Now we might need to take another look at Ukraine's independence. Trump and Putin are in the midst of dividing it between themselves. We'll see how that works out.Metaphysician Undercover
    And I would be very happy if I'm wrong and it won't be as bad. Giving up on Putin and giving Putin everything, Trump can be the largest weak dick ever that has been on the US presidency. Because Trump isn't dividing anything to himself. What is he dividing for himself? He will be the biggest surrender monkey in all of history if he goes along with Putin as Neville Chamberlain had far more backbone than Trump. You see, Neville did declare war with Germany later.

    DFN-Z-peace-in-our-time-01.jpg?w=575

    But then again, he might just have a photo-op with Putin and then do the right thing and not cave in.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    I don't think he'll intentionally pick Russia over UK. The net result would be the same, because of the trust issue - and his stupidity.Relativist

    In days gone by, he didn't have the power to summon Putin-the-powerful.
    Now he does, both, and revels in it?
    jorndoe

    Few things. First about deals, Putin can immediately give him deals (read bribes) or hints of deals which Starmer cannot absolutely do. Dictators can do that. The Prime Minister of UK isn't a dictator, so Trump has a problem with that. This is why he truly can make deals with the Gulf States and Saudi-Arabia, and they surely will play along with that.

    Then this mess about personal relations, personal likings and opinions. First of all, what Trump seems to totally forget is that he is the representative of his country, he's not talking as himself. Yet he is talking as he would as a media personality, not the representative of the US about the US policy. Others aren't so direct because of this, but does Trump care, no.

    Let's just forget this absolute horse manure of this being a "negotiating tactic" or "4D Chess". It's simple: power simply has gone to Trump's head. He really means what he says. He truly would want to enlarge the territory of the US into Greenland, into Panama. Even to have some kind of arrangement of that wonderful Mediterranean beachfront territory named Gaza strip, without the annoying Palestinians that should go somewhere else. This is what this old man thinks, these are his true objectives. The only "negotiating tactic" is that if he cannot get these territories want he wants, he gets something else. Yet the objective is territorial expansion. There is no hiding of this truth. And this defines everything that Trump is about and what he does. Trump's total ignorance or basically hatred of a "rules based international order" can be understood from this point of view, because all those rules are in his way.

    It sounds totally ridiculous, but it isn't. Republicans can attempt to waive off this as acting as in WWE Pro Wrestling, where Vince McMahon puts a sideshow to the wrestling with insane twist plots and always, always stays in character where the fictional character and reality come together. It's a show, even if accidents happen. Yet it's no coincidence that Trump has gotten into the show:



    After all, it's World Wrestling Entertainment. Well, international relations isn't entertainment. It's deadly serious. And people will listen to the US president as talking the official line of the state of United States. And territorial annexations or even the talk of them are the Pandora's box that will quickly poison the atmosphere.

    Diplomats are diplomatic for a very serious reason as relationship between sovereign nation states can easily sour. Hatred and mistrust can be easily created and hence the act of being "diplomatic". Foreign leaders usually try avoiding commenting the internal politics of another country. But that diplomacy can be then put aside. At some level, being "diplomatic" is stretched too much and the politician has to start to think about his or her domestic appearance. And then the gloves come off.

    Secondly, the issue of Trump meeting Putin and possibly making a surrender treaty like with the Taleban in Doha:

    The Polish foreign minister summed up quite well the situation in Munich yesterday, when he was asked what he would to tell Trump. Sikorsky responded, as the Polish are quite straight forward:

    Biden was your successor and predecessor, but he planted the US flag in downtown Kyiv and declared on behalf of the United States that the US will be with Ukraine as long as it takes until Ukraine secures it's independence. Therefore, the credibility of the United States depends on how this war ends, not just the Trump administration, the United States itself. I would secondly tell him (Trump) that if you allow Putin to vasalize Ukraine, that will send a message to China that you can recover what you regard as a renegade province.

    1920x810

    Sikorsky also mentioned that European control the Nobel Peace prize (which Trump, the man of peace, surely wants) and got laughs for that. Yet his statement was very clear about just what it as stake here. This seems to be missing for many Americans that consider that "Ukraine isn't unimportant and is a costly sideshow" or the kind of "forever war" that basically is done only for the military industrial complex or just go along with Trump.

    With Trump acting like Trump, the US Superpower status is in a tailspin. I'm afraid that this will continue just like it has now. Some might argue that it's going to be just four years or until a heart attack of an old man, but the damage has been done. There can always come another Trump or the continuation of this hostile attitudes against the allies and basically total lack of understanding how the position of the US has depended on alliances. Just like if Russia would have a revolution tomorrow and Putin would be ousted like Assad and a pro-Western government would be formed there wished to approach the West, there would always be the doubt of how long the Westernizers are in power before the Putinist return. That change takes really decades and a real effort from the people themselves, just as with the Germans.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    My take on it is that Trump has no favorites, which means he feels exactly the same about the UK or France as he does about Russia or China.Relativist
    Lol. :lol:

    Seems you don't follow Trump when he sees Putin or see his "allies". Oh, he has favorites.

    Trust me, when he believes Vladimir Putin more than his own American intelligence services, that tells something. Now he wants to have Russia (and Putin) back on the G7 (making it again G8). And he is constantly talking to Putin and now meeting him to talk about Ukraine, not with Zelenskyi. And he never says any slightest critique about Putin. Never. The guy has an abnormal fascination on Putin, starting when he tweeted that would Putin be his new friend when hosting a Beauty peasant competition, Miss Universe, in Moscow. Putin didn't see him back then... back then he was a not important.

    sub-buzz-11404-1521055411-1.jpg?downsize=700%3A%2A&output-quality=auto&output-format=auto
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Some expected him to announce a massive withdrawal of troops from Europe. That didn't happen. Yet.frank
    Trump is the only declaring anything in this administration. But it's great days for Russia and China as Trump is rapidly eroding the US position.

    (South China Morning Post, 4th February 2025) US President Donald Trump’s spending freeze for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) could allow China to fill the resultant gap under the aegis of its Belt and Road Initiative, analysts said.

    The 12-year-old initiative provides low-interest loans for highways, ports and power plants in scores of developing countries – many of which are also recipients of funding from USAID, an agency whose operations Trump halted this week.

    Countries reliant on the 64-year-old aid programme may turn to China for support or other concessional investments in infrastructure projects – unless China offers first.

    “There is a vacuum,” said Sharif Naubakhar, a professor of public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “Even though the belt and road is not aid, it is infrastructure, it is energy, clean water.”

    China would be a “winner” of the USAID closure as it seeks “access to vital resources abroad” and tries to “build alliances that are not in US national interests”, said Cornell University applied economics and policy professor Christopher Barrett in a statement on Monday.

    Economically troubled Bangladesh is likely to be among the first to approach China if USAID pulls out, according to a January 29 analysis by the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank.
    Trump really wants to please both the leaders of Russia and China.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Fusing defence industries would favour the rise of military-industrial complex lobby which may the necessary step to build a valid political and military deterrence against hostile powers. It’s also economically important to preserve a unite and dynamic market and technological development to compensate for the demographic and morale decay of spoiled Europeans.neomac
    And that's the issue that should be done. But there are good prospects for this. Assuming there's the will to do it. Just take for example drone warfare:



    Europe has totally the ability to bypass American arms manufacturing and not be dependent on the whims of the American president.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Vicepresident Vance gave a speech, well a scolding lecture, where he told Europeans that their threat isn't external, but basically their "pinko-liberalism" and the threat to free speech (from an administration that is defining words not to be officially used). Basically an endorsement for the AfD, just like Musk.

    Here's the response from the German Defense Minister. He had a planned another speech, but had to reply to Vance. Notice that he answers to Vance in German (4 min), then continues with English the prepared speech. Worth listening to the rest of the speech (which could be in the Ukraine thread).

  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Just because I'm uncomfortable with something doesn't mean that I oppose it.BitconnectCarlos
    Tells a lot. So you are uncomfortable with ethnic cleansing, but think it's an OK thing to do.

    Sometimes I toy with the idea that certain cultures just ought to be vanquished on behalf of their own wickedness.BitconnectCarlos
    Then you have absolutely no problem of understanding Nazi ideology, because that's the way exactly how they thought. Some may have been "uncomfortable" in the process, but hey, the end justifies the means.

    I'll just end here with that I'm categorically against your thinking. There are ample examples that once conflicts are over, people can adapt to peace. Yet then it's a military that is vanquished, or a political movement that has ended up in failure. Not a culture. The idea of perpetual war between "cultures" is a strange and dubious idea, because in the end you are talking of people that basically just want to live their life. I think your view of the "wickedness of some cultures" is one of the most dangerous in this World and will spread destruction and death in further conflicts. Because military conflict isn't seen as an extension or outcome of political disagreement, but a way to attack whole people constituting a culture. The objectives are war aren't as Clausewitz put them, but something of the lines of the Roman saying: "Create a desert and call it peace". If ethnic cleansing is OK, it isn't a big leap to genocide.

    Yep, some new member would be immediately banned.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Interesting and well-written perspectives? What’s the thread coming to?

    Anyway — how seriously do we take anything Trump says? Words and posturing matter, given the US’s stature, but I can’t see Trump allowing Russia to annex Ukrainian territory and permanently shelving NATO membership — which is likely be non-negotiable aspects of any settlement. Hegseth has asked already walked back statements re: NATO.
    Mikie
    Which btw just shows how poor Hegseth is as secretary of defense as first impressions matter. That your first thing you say to NATO members you have to walk back tells a lot. But perhaps it's the genius of Trump. Maybe Trump just wants his underlings to parrot his talking points... perhaps make them more coherent and thoughtful.

    Yet the damage is done. Hardly anyway now to think that this card, possible Ukraine NATO option, could be put on the table again. Why it was so damning, to say that Ukraine won't be a member state, is because it goes against the idea of NATO's article 10:

    The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty. Any State so invited may become a Party to the Treaty by depositing its instrument of accession with the Government of the United States of America. The Government of the United States of America will inform each of the Parties of the deposit of each such instrument of accession.

    Any European State ought to be capable of joining if it meets the criteria. Already from article 10 we can see that it's really complicated for Ukraine to become a member, but saying it aloud is just giving Putin what he wants.

    You might think that this is a tiny issue. It isn't, it truly isn't.

    When Putin demanded that Russia ought to have a say what members are accepted to NATO and what not, that was the red line for Finland. By this demand Putin put Finland to immediately to start the process of joining NATO membership and Finland pushed also to Sweden to seek the membership. And it went through the Parliament with vast majority once the conventional invasion of Ukraine started.

    You see, we were happy to wiggle around without being in NATO and having only an option to join NATO. Give us a space to wiggle, we Finns will wiggle, but take that wiggle space away and put us into a corner, we are far worse than the famous cornered rat. Ask Stalin how annoying we can be. With this demand Putin only showed the corner and that was enough for the Finnish leadership.

    Perhaps politicians will not take seriously everything what Trump say, but they simply cannot think that it's all bullsh 4D-Chess playing. Perhaps Trump just wanted to give the middle finger to outgoing Trudeau with his talk of Canada become part of the US. But those kinds of "gestures" do have effects. There is a reason for diplomats being "diplomatic".

    That would sound more promising. But once NATO is gone and won't be replaced by some comparable EU collective defence, not sure if the EU will survive. Imagine if countries like Hungary or whatever that swim in the other direction, will continue to do it also aver security matters e.g. by hosting Russian military bases.neomac
    Only Trump can really end NATO. I think Europeans have still a love affair with NATO and when Trump is against it and hates it, it will be there for the Europeans as this organization from a more peaceful past. Likely it will exist as an option, if the US notices the mistake it's making and will come back. But still, Trump hasn't left Europe.

    What is likely to happen that Europe will rearm... with European arms. Likely event what Trump with all his hostility will make is that US arms industry will suffer a lot in the future. After all, the US cannot be trusted, so why would you then buy weapons from there?

    But you are right that the way of appeasement might indeed what many countries will opt. Russia's objective is to have the ability to approach every European country individually as then it is in the position of strength. And that's why Putin absolutely hates the EU and NATO and the dissolution of the two is his goal.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    I've been hammering on the EU leaving NATO since then as the only reliable way forward for our security.Benkei
    EU isn't part of NATO. Remember Ireland and Austria, Benkei. And Sweden and Finland haven't been long in

    And even EU might be far too cumbersome. The European family is just too big to work as a team. There will be always some country like Hungary or whatever, that swims in the other direction. Far better is simply a loose but working coalition of countries. NATO countries around the Baltic and the North Sea would be a great start.

    Like we, uh, actually have already where both of our countries are operating: the JEF

    The JEF is a coalition of ten like-minded nations (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, UK), comprising high readiness forces configured to respond rapidly to crises. It can integrate into larger international operations such as those led by NATO, the UN or other security coalitions and can conduct the full spectrum of operations. It enhances the deterrence messaging of NATO and provides agile, credible and capable forces in support of JEF Participant Nation interests.

    Basically JEF was a move to make non-NATO Sweden and Finland to co-operate in the defense of the Baltics, yet the emphasis should be in creating deterrence, not having a forum to talk. There are enough of those. Like minded nations is the key. What actual important player missing is Poland, because Poland is going to have one serious military in the future. France and Germany? Well, the EU has been lead by those two nations and Germany seems not to capable of taking defense seriously.

    Others? Now I don't have anything Spain or Spaniards and well understand that the security environment next to the volatile North Africa put's Spains focus totally somewhere else. And it's understandable (as the country actually has territory in Africa).
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