It's clearly an act of forced displacement, which is indeed a war crime. The problem is that almost all of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) has a clause of 'military necessity', which is what Israel has always put forward to legitimise its actions.

Rule 129. The Act of Displacement

A. Parties to an international armed conflict may not deport or forcibly transfer the civilian population of an occupied territory, in whole or in part, unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand.

B. Parties to a non-international armed conflict may not order the displacement of the civilian population, in whole or in part, for reasons related to the conflict, unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand. — IHL

Legally speaking, all Israel has to do is make a case for military necessity, and it doesn't even have to be a particularly good one.

IHL is pretty much a paper tiger anyway, but I thought it might be useful to understand how Israel covers its bases.

Yes, Israel has royally screwed up with the support of the US. I'm just saying, it's not apartheid by the definition we usually use for that. — frank

What apartheid is referring to in this case is not the situation within Israel, but the situation between Israel and the Palestinian territories.

Apartheid refers to the implementation and maintenance of a system of legalized racial segregation in which one racial group is deprived of political and civil rights. Apartheid is a crime against humanity punishable under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. — Legal ecyclopedia

There's a giant wall seperating Israel from the West Bank, which has been ruled illegal by to the International Court of Justice specifically because of its character of racial segregation and discrimination.

Further, Palestinians do not have the same rights as Jews within the land of Israel.
For example, Palestinians in the West Bank cannot freely traverse Israeli-controlled areas, which results in communities becoming isolated, life being made impossible, etc.

Palestinians in the West Bank are policed by the Israeli army, while Israeli settlers are policed by the police - this results in Israeli soldiers standing idly by while Palestinians are harassed, humiliated, or sometimes violently assaulted by settlers.

Palestinians can be taken into custody without any basis, and held there indefinitely - sometimes for years.

I could go on.

The list of Israeli human rights violations with regards to discrimination of Palestinians is nearly inexhaustible, so please, when the appropriate human rights organisations like Amnesty talk about apartheid, it shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt. This is real apartheid.

Also reports of hostile airplanes (likely drones) in northern Israel.

Yep. This is going fully to shit.

Sadly, as many had already feared, settler violence against Palestinians living in the West Bank is now starting to flare up as well.

Three Palestinians Killed by Israeli Forces, Settlers in West Bank

CAIRO, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Three Palestinians were killed by gunfire from Israeli forces and settlers in Qusra village near the West Bank city of Nablus on Wednesday, the Palestinian official news agency said.

Eleven other Palestinians were wounded by live rounds, according to the Red Crescent.

Earlier in the day, Ghassan Daghlas, the acting governor of Nablus, told Reuters that Israeli settlers had attacked the village located south of Nablus, and fired live bullets at citizens and ambulances in the place.

Personally, I wouldn't be comfortable with the idea of imposing something of that magnitude and with such potential risks on Israel.

Putting pressure on Israel to stop its human rights abuses is something that is long overdue, though. (To be fair, it's not like that hasn't been tried, but alas.)

However, it is unlikely given the huge political clout Israel holds in the United States.

In many ways I agree with you, and it's not so clear whether denying the Palestinians their right to self-determination won't come back to haunt Israel.

Yet it's hard to imagine the Israeli policymakers will see it this way, and they're holding almost all the cards.

It's not clear to me how such a peace plan would address the legitimate concern about what happens if a new Palestinian state would align itself to Israel's adversaries.

I'm trying to put myself in the shoes of the Israelis. Palestine becomes its own state and a few years after the deal it aligns itself with Iran. What happens next? Would Israel realistically ever take such a risk?

Putting the ideological nonsense from the hardliners aside, from a geopolitical view a two state solution would be complicated to say the least (I'll readily call it a pipe dream).

Israeli policymakers (or the international community, for that matter) have to ask themselves the question, what sort of state might Palestine develop into over time?

Is that going to be a state favorable to Israel, or one that is adversarial?

It doesn't take ideologically possessed hardliners to see that the answer is probably going to be the latter, given the immense historical grievances present, and no shortage of potential allies that also take an adversarial position towards Israel.

There might be a period of peace, but I think that would be short-lived, and that it would buckle under geopolitical realities and historical sentiments in no time at all.

At that point, Israel's position would be even more strategically compromised than it already is. In its current state Israel already has virtually no strategic depth - with a Palestinian state located (for example) on the West Bank, that would shrink even further.

To illustrate, at its narrowest point the distance between the West Bank and the Mediterranean is only about 15 km. A 15 minute drive.

From a military perspective it is undefendable.


So I agree with some of the sentiments that have already been shared in this thread, namely that advocating a two state solution is so unrealistic that it is basically a way politicians pretend to advocate for peace, while in fact supporting the status quo.

This idea that Israel wants to push Palestine into the sea is a projection of what Palestine wants to do to Israel. If Israel wanted to fully annihilated Palestine, they could, but they don't. On the other hand, if Palestine could annihilate Israel, they would, but they can't. — Hanover

I'm assuming you are talking about Hamas? You don't think every Palestinian thinks like Hamas, do you? Sounds like you might be doing some projecting of your own.

You're also comparing apples to oranges. Palestine doesn't even have a functioning army or police force - they're not allowed that by Israel. Palestine as a state doesn't exist, and even as a political entity it barely exists.

Palestinians are basically powerless and without proper representation. Add a system of apartheid and a slow policy of bullying the Palestinians until they leave and you have a hotbed for hatred and extremism. Israel's policies with regards to the Palestinian territories could easily be regarded as a method of slow ethnic cleansing.

West Bank Map

Here's a quote by Amnesty:

In [February, 2022], Amnesty International released a 280-page report showing how Israel was imposing an institutionalized regime of oppression and domination against the Palestinian people wherever it exercised control over their rights, fragmenting and segregating Palestinian citizens of Israel, residents of the OPT and Palestinian refugees denied the right of return. Through massive seizures of land and property, unlawful killings, infliction of serious injuries, forcible transfers, arbitrary restrictions on freedom of movement, and denial of nationality, among other inhuman or inhumane acts, Israeli officials would be responsible for the crime against humanity of apartheid, which falls under the jurisdiction of the ICC.

Note that this abhorrent practice has been going on for decades, even during peace processes. Israel has always assumed time is on its side in this regard, and that eventually it will succeed in pushing the Palestinians out. (Rabin was the exception - hardliners had him offed)

There's a significant elite within Israel that wants a strictly Jewish state and sees no place for Palestinians. Netanyahu's party Likud represents part of that elite.

While you're trying to mind read (projecting) what the Palestinians would do if they had the capability, Israel is being actively called out by human rights organisations for actual crimes against humanity. The fact that they've not taken to outright genocide should in no way justify how you've tried to frame the two sides.

And speaking of genocide, Art 2.(c) Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of
Genocide defines genocide as such:

In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with
intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as
such:

[...]

(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its
physical destruction in whole or in part;

Israel has skirted that line vis-á-vis the Palestinians for much of its existence.

For me it looks like an attack that Palestinians could well have planned themselves. — ssu

I am skeptical. An elaborate operation like this prepared and carried out right under the noses of Mossad suggests to me that highly capable actors are involved.

As in, now Israel will never get the Muslims to care about them now that they've gone and done this? — Hanover

If Israel moves into Gaza and it turns into a giant massacre, then yes, I assume rapprochement with the Muslim world will be set back decades. Perhaps outright inflame old tensions.

And that rapprochement matters. Israel is surrounded by Muslim countries who have far greater populations than itself. Unless Israel wants to live in fear of its existence forever (as it has done for much of the past), that rapprochement matters.

Seems the strategic angle would be that the Palestinians would try to gain the affection of the Israelies, considering they have the power to destroy them. — Hanover

The hardliners in Israel, many of whom are part of Netanyahu's party Likud, want Israel to be a strictly Jewish nation state.

I'd agree with you, if it were a feasible option. But the harsh truth is that many of the people who control Israel want the Palestinians gone and have consistently managed to implement policy to try and remove them.

Israel's settlement policy, which Netanyahu has steadily increased support for, is probably the most egregious example of such policies.

With the current lock down I don't think foreign backing is relevant. — Benkei

How does that really help? — ssu

Well, I think it matters.

The scale and organisation of the attacks seem to suggest some kind of foreign backing.

The attacks, while bloody, didn't achieve anything, and harsh Israeli retaliation was basically guaranteed. So if we assume rational actors are behind this attack, we might also assume the attacks themselves weren't the goal of the operation.

So perhaps eliciting an extreme response from Israel, for which preperations may have already been made, was the goal.

In 2006 we saw that Hezbollah was capable of waging war effectively against Israel. There's no reason to assume Hamas hasn't found some way to do the same.

At any rate, if I were the Israelis I would be extremely cautious about sending 300,000 reservists into Gaza. It will be a bloodbath and I don't think it is obvious the Israelis will come out on top without resorting to indiscriminate killing.

And Hamas or the Palestinian authority don't the capability to train and arm such forces. — ssu

The assumption is that Hamas has foreign backing.

Honestly, a force of 300,000 against 2,000,000+ Palestinians (lets say 500,000 military age males) who have nowhere to run to, and are possibly quite well-armed and prepared to conduct an insurgency? I wouldn't be loving my odds if I were the Israeli general in charge. Not to mention the situation on the West Bank, the Lebanon border and with regards to outside actors like Iran.

Flawed they may be, Israel's government is quite capable and one would think (hope) they would see the foolishness of such a course of action.

And moreover, Israel has no worries as it has a nuclear deterrence. And it's neighbors don't. — ssu

I'm not sure how much those nukes count for in the modern age. If some escalation takes place, it's not going to be conventional. It will be 'war among the people', and it can hardly start nuking its own territory.

Israel has referred to the use of its nuclear arsenal as 'the Samson option' - if you understand the symbology you will understand that relying on this would certainly worry the Israelis.

I think a military incursion, even if ultimately successful, would be a serious struggle. We can reasonably assume Hamas is prepared for Israeli retaliations, especially since these were the bloodiest attacks in decades.

But in the end where will it leave Israel? Rapprochement with the Muslim world will be impossible if the civilian death toll is high, and it probably will be. The situation on the West Bank will become further inflamed, quite possibly resulting in extreme violence there as well. What of other Arab nations like Lebanon and Iran, who might not sit idly by while this happens?

If this powder keg blows, what is the US going to do? It's got its hands full with Russia and China.

Mobilizing 300,000 troops is quite an extreme reaction - perhaps exactly the type which Hamas sought to provoke. I'm not sure what Israel plans to do with those 300,000 reservists. Some news reports have stated that it is sending most its troops to the Lebanese border. Given the global geopolitical situation with the US occupied elsewhere and looking weak, they might be fearing a serious attack by another party.

If they use massive military force to once again attack Lebanon or to occupy Gaza, I think it will be a grave mistake on their part. A new occupation of Gaza would turn into an absolute bloodbath that would probably haunt them for the rest of their existence. But I'm not sure if the current geopolitical situation allows Israel to go on the offensive like that.

It's clear Hamas and Hezbollah, and other actors like Iran, are capable of learning from past and contemporary conflicts and know how to target Israel's weak points. I'm inclined to believe the military balance of power is skewed less in Israel's favor than it has in the past, and given Israel's precarious position in the region we may be looking at genuine fear.

Anyone has any ideas about Hamas' goals?

One would have to assume they expected harsh retaliation by Israel, but what do they stand to gain?

Keeping their cause alive could be one reason, but at the same time that's a very limited goal that maybe doesn't warrant such a large attack.

A theory I've heard is that Iran was involved, and that this may have to do with sabotaging Saudi-Israel rapprochement. It's an interesting thought, but at the same time the question is whether such a goal would warrant this type of an attack. Especially considering Iran and Saudi-Arabia have reached their own form of rapprochement recently, and one would assume that countries in BRICS have more subtle ways of settling such matters among themselves.

Anyway, I haven't heard something that makes total sense yet. So any takers?

What did you think of Stradner's post (Sep 30, 2023)? — jorndoe

I think she's right that these conflicts are related to the war in Ukraine, and perhaps more directly with the shifting geopolitical landscape in a wider sense.

However, it would be too easy to label this as 'a thing evil Russia does', because the US / The West seems to be doing the same, for example in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

I agree with you that from a humanist perspective it is a crazy strategy. But I guess close to a century of oppression changed some people's view of what is rational.

My belief is that the Israelis want peace and their enemies do not. — tim wood

There are extremist elements within both sides.

Certain zionist and nationalist elements such as ones found in Netanyahu's party Likud, view Israel as a strictly Jewish nation state, and see little to no place for the millions of Palestinians that live in Israel. Aggressive settlement policies and discriminatory laws are clear examples of that.

Note for example that on the West Bank Palestinians aren't allowed to move freely through Israeli settlements or areas under Israeli control, and thus Israeli settlements have over time cut off entire Palestinian communities or made life impossible and driven them from their homes by settling near them.

West Bank Map

In the West Bank you will literally find lone Palestinian homes amidst Jewish streets, completely boarded up. These are people who refuse to leave. They're not even allowed to do groceries freely. They're policed by the army, while Israelis are policed by regular police forces.

One could argue that Israel adopted these policies with the express purpose of bullying the Palestinians until they would leave.

Did you take my post as finger wagging? — Echarmion

It wasn't aimed specifically at you. It's just a thing that comes up with some regularity.

↪Tzeentch, say, there are some marked differences between Kennedy (1917-1963) and Litvinenko (1962-2006). — jorndoe

I'm sure there are. I just sought to point out that the US isn't a stranger to political killings, and wagging the finger at Russia is rather hypocritical.

Anything further on those NATO and coup things, by the way? — jorndoe

I'm not sure what else you expect me to say. I have responded to your questions. If you think something is lacking in my response, it would really help if you would state your questions a bit more clearly.

[...] but because it has this nihilistic and delusional vision where this will provoke Israel into the "final, apocalyptic, battle," they are fated to lose. — Count Timothy von Icarus

That's perhaps not as delusional as you may think.

Israel is a tiny country surrounded by historical enemies that have attempted to gang up on it several times in the past. Each time it was saved by its professional military, without which it wouldn't have existed today - it would have literally been erased from the map.

Pretty much the whole Muslim world has a bone to pick with Israel, and even if relations with some Muslim neighbours appear stable now, it's entirely unclear if that hatchet is truly buried.

When one considers that Israel's population is less than 10 million people (for reference, Egypt alone has a population of 109 million), one realizes Israel's dominant (albeit precarious) position in the region is entirely unnatural and cannot last forever. When another nation or nations take over that role, will they be merciful towards Israel? I highly doubt it, and Israel owes that in part to its own conduct and failure to find a modus vivendi with the Palestinians.

I visited Israel and the West Bank in 2019 as part of a research tour. The problems there are complicated and many, and solutions are all but impossible, so don't interpret this as though I am taking sides.

The atmosphere there is fearful and tense, in both Israel and the West Bank. It is a police state. I left with exactly the feeling that, unless it can accomplish some kind of rapprochement with the Palestinians and the Muslim world at large, Israel is doomed when that pendulum swings the other way. The question is when that happens.

Just don't live in a building where you could accidentally fall out the window to your death. — Echarmion

In Russia political opponents fall out of windows. In the US they get shot in broad daylight.

Pick your poison, I suppose.

Hezbollah seems to have bombarded a farm in the north of Israel with rockets and artillery, and the Israelis are retaliating with airstrikes. Certainly a worrying situation.

Given the shifting geopolitical situation and rapprochement between Iran and Saudi-Arabia, I understand the fear.

What hangs as a shadow over these conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah, is the question of whether this will be the time Israel's historical rivals may come to settle old scores.

With international politics being what they are, this is an incredibly tricky situation.

One can only hope that this powder keg doesn't finally blow, but even so I don't think it's a matter of 'if' but a matter of 'when'.

Similar to what's come up before, suppose that Ukraine had ... ▸ declared neutrality with respect to international military alliance memberships, formally on paper / constitutionally; ▸ retained right to self-defense, e.g. from invaders (shouldn't be controversial), including foreign training and/or weaponry as the case may be; ▸ explicitly stated that others respect sovereignty, self-determination, freedom to seek own path (shouldn't be controversial); ▸ actively pursued EU membership, and perhaps sought other such cooperation ... Something along those lines.

The question is what might we then have expected from the Kremlin. Seems like they covered their bases, but what might have transpired then? — jorndoe

I gave a pretty elaborate response to this question, by the way:

Pre-2014, some sort of commitment to neutrality backed up by action could have probably avoided this war.

War became virtually inevitable when Washington expressed its wishes to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, and then backed up that intention by supporting a coup and by starting to train and arm the Ukrainians.

Even if NATO membership was being held off, the Russians feared Washington would create a fait accompli when it started arming the Ukrainians to such an extent that in time the Russians wouldn't be able to object.

The importance of Ukraine is especially tied to Crimea and Sevastopol. Ukraine entering a rival military alliance would mean Russian access to the Black Sea and its strategic partners could be cut off at any point in time. It had a long-term lend lease deal, which Ukraine could simply cancel and then it would be up to Russia to invade, which would at that point be completely unfeasible.

Everybody involved at the political level is (or should be) aware of this, which is why Washington's attempt to change Ukraine's neutral status in 2008 and 2014 should be seen as a deliberate attempt at escalation.

EU membership may be a difficult point. The EU isn't a military alliance, but the Europhiles in Brussel certainly fantasize about turning the EU into a 'United States of Europe', with a European army, etc., which would essentially create the same situation as if Ukraine would join NATO. One could argue that such a situation is far away, but the nature of geopolitics is long-term.


Right now it will be very difficult to come to a peace agreement, since trust between Russia and the West has been completely shattered (it should be attempted regardless).

Russia is not going to return the territories it now occupies, simply because the trust isn't there to leave Crimea in the same vulnerable situation that it was in. That was the point of their invasion. And it is unlikely Ukraine (and Washington) would agree to a peace deal that doesn't return territory.

The harsh truth is that the rest of Ukraine is only of marginal importance to Russia and Washington, and it will likely end up being the pawn in the geopolitical game for years to come. I only see things getting worse for Ukraine. — Tzeentch

Regardless of NATO (and the US) — jorndoe

The way that you phrased your hypothetical, those other countries would be forming a bloc that would function essentially the same as NATO.

So in that sense it doesn't matter which military bloc or hegemon takes the role of NATO and US respectively, assuming of course there's a credible threat of Russia being kicked out of Ukraine permanently.

A move to democracy against corruption etc — jorndoe

That's a bit of a rose-coloured way of imagining things.

Having the US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs design the government hardly seems democratic to me. I also wonder how much of that 5 billion was spent on bribes. :sweat:

I was called 'Pro-Putin' for just defending Dostoevsky... *sigh* — javi2541997

My suggestion would be, don't waste your time replying to forum members that try to frame you as being partisan. They're not worth your time and effort.

For me, it is clear that Washington is so interested in degrading Russia and pushing EU members against them. A terrible situation for both Europeans and Russians, but not for Americans. Yikes! — javi2541997

Exactly. European and American interests diverge at key points, and the current European leadership is completely incapable of safeguarding those lines.

You calling it a "victory" for the Russians, tells more about you than about the Russians. — neomac

Damn. I extend an olive branch and gave a serious response to your question, and you give me this? How sad.

Enough with the sass. If you want a straightforward answer, just ask a straightforward question. Unclear, loaded or passive aggressive questions I don't care to respond to.

Anyway, you've been mostly polite thus far:

What might we then have expected from the Kremlin? — jorndoe

If Ukraine's neutral status were threatened in some other way, we might expect the very same behavior from the Kremlin, especially if no meaningful dialogue takes place.

What's up with the repeated misrepresentation anyways? — jorndoe

I never said the Maidan coup was "just a US thing", so I'm not sure what misrepresentation you're talking about.

What does winning the war mean exactly? — neomac

Obviously I cannot look into the minds of the Kremlin, but if I had to make an educated guess:

- Either force a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine problem that involves a neutral Ukraine.

- In the absence of a diplomatic solution, Russia would annex those parts of Ukraine that it deems vitally important (unclear if this includes more than what it already holds), and turn the rest of Ukraine into a ruin.

What inquiries? I'll happily answer your questions, but you have a rather unclear way of asking them.

On an added note, the Russians seem to be getting rather boisterous as of late.

I take that as a clear sign they believe the West is out of aces and they are winning the war. Any takers?

I didn't talk about 'forcing'. The US was aware of and crossed the Kremlin's red lines despite over a decade of warnings, and now Ukraine is paying the bill while Western political figures are gushing about how this war is a cheap way of keeping Russia occupied.

What do you think about that?

And what do you make of the fact that Washington was deeply aware of the Kremlin's red lines, crossed them anyway and is now having Ukraine pay the bill?

These oompa loompas keep saying the quiet part out loud:



This time some cringy quotes from the Minister of Defence from my very own home country. In Dutch we say, "plaatsvervangende schaamte".

It is very much in our interest to support Ukraine, because they are fighting this war. We're not fighting it. — Kasja Ollongren

In a way of course supporting Ukraine is a very cheap way to make sure Russia with this regime is not a threat to the NATO alliance. — Kasja Ollongren

Ukraine's fight is being instrumentalized by the West. Occupying Russia in Ukraine is a great way of keeping NATO safe.

Let's ignore the fact that that very same NATO dangled the promise of safety infront of the Ukrainians and goaded them into playing hardball with the Russians.

NATO security at Ukraine's expense? It's what I and many others have been saying here for a while.

What's worse is that this "plan" is fucking stupid, excuse my French. It's probably what the Americans are whispering in the ears of our dimwitted European "leadership" to foster support for a war that's not in Europe's interest.

How is NATO going to be secure by essentially degrading European-Russian relations and remilitarizing Russia while DEmilitarizing Europe?

But hey, folks like Kasja get to play pretend with the big boys in Washington, so all is well.

They even named the money, the amount of money that was spent on this coup. Everything is possible. — Putin

Well, he is not wrong:

Victoria Nuland: Ukrainians Deserve Respect From Their Government

We've invested over 5 billion dollars to assist Ukraine in these and other goals, that will ensure a secure, prosperous and democratic Ukraine. — Victoria Nuland

This was posted on December 19th, 2013. Months before the coup take place.

Did they make good on their promises to ensure a secure, prosperous and democratic Ukraine? I think not, but you be the judge.

A & B are in a war with each other. Both A & B claim that they - and they alone - have the right to rule / govern / control a particular piece of real estate. — EricH

This doesn't describe the war in Ukraine, though. Russia doesn't claim any such rights.

And that expression of concerns has been generally understood to require world domination by force. — tim wood

The Russians are after world domination by force? You'll have to explain that one.

As to refusing dialogue, that is simply a lie, and the speaker of it either a liar, ignorant, or stupid. Take your pick, combinations allowed. — tim wood

The US has never over the course of some 20+ years veered from its course to do exactly what the Russians were warning them about.

Even diplomatic negotiations like Minsk were used as a tool of conflict.

So yes, I maintain that no (meaningful) dialogue has taken place.

There's an argument to be made that it is the Russians themselves who have "no interest...". That it is the Russians themselves who choose, have long chosen, to live as enemies in a world that instead wants friends. That it is the Russians themselves who have been their own worst enemy. — tim wood

Well, the Russians have never made a secret of what they believe their security concerns are. It is the West (primarily the US) that has refused dialogue of any sort for as long as this conflict has existed.

With your remarks about the Russian constitution, you seem to imply you don't view these things as matters that should be discussed, but rather taken at face value and dismissed if it doesn't appeal. But correct me if I'm wrong.

Well, if you have no interest in other countries' views and their security concerns, what situation do you believe you'll end up with other than endless war?