Comments

  • Ukraine Crisis
    The whole goddam battle for Kiyv wasn't even going on!!!ssu

    What a curious remark, coming from someone who keeps referencing the battle of Hostomel Airport (24th - 25th of February by the way, when "the goddamn battle of Kiev wasn't even going on").


    Anyway, your source provides nothing in the way of troop counts, so I'm not sure what you believe it proves.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    First of all, where do you get the number 20,000?ssu

    It was reported directly by the Ukrainian general staff.

    31 BTGs, each comprised of roughly 600 - 800 officers and soldiers, amounts to roughly 21,000 troops.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    The Russians hoping to take Kiev with 20,000 troops is a laughable fantasy.

    Sorry. but it can't be put in any other way.

    It's pretty obvious that the Russians in terms of territory aimed for south eastern Ukraine. However, admitting as much would mean admitting the Russians may have achieved some sort of victory, which is of course anathema in western media.

    I prefer your sense of humor over your interpretation of the facts.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    A diversion, most likely.

    There's a strategic element to it as well, where the West might've been persuaded to the negotiating table upon Kiev being threatened. That's in fact what happened in the early stage of the war, but the US blocked negotiations.

    A shame, because back then purportedly a peace agreement lay on the table that kept Ukraine almost entirely intact in terms of territory.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Kiev is well outside of the realm of reason. Let there be no misunderstanding about that based on my last reply.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    The plan was to take Kiev, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Odessa, possibly Dnipro. If it suceeded, there would be little to no resistance, as the entire government structure would collapse (with Lviv being the only remaining bigger center). Ukrainians would have no choice but to accept peace on very unfavorable terms, most likely with puppet Russian government installed. How exactly does that 'dismiss the entire western narrative of the Ukraine war'?Jabberwock

    The dismissal happens when I measure your narrative to the 190,000 figure, and conclude that there is no way a 190,000 troops could have achieved the goals you purport the Russians had.

    In fact, had the Russians intended to take and hold Kiev, 190,000 troops would barely be able to achieve just that, assuming 60,000 Ukrainian defenders (which is roughly what sources seem to agree on).

    And they would have been able to achieve nothing else.

    However, we know only ~20,000 Russsian troops participated in the Battle of Kiev.

    You see a discrepancy here?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    The Russian army went into Ukraine with at the very most a 190,000 troops. There is absolutely no way the Russian army, comprised of a 190,000 troops, could conquer all of Ukraine.John J. Mearsheimer

    I'd just like to point out how absolutely pivotal a piece of information like this (that has been public knowledge for a while) is to deciphering the actual goings-on vis-à-vis Ukraine.

    For many months now I have defended the position (leaning quite often on Mearsheimer's arguments, I will admit) that the Russians never intended to take over all of Ukraine with their initial invasion.

    Unless someone wants to argue the 190,000 figure is false, we can essentially dismiss the entire western narrative of the Ukraine war. I hope people realise that.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Present Russia is a prime example of a country where it's leaders are so seduced about it's imagined greatness they will ruin everything absolutely everything.ssu

    Ironically, this describes Washington equally well.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    For once in America's recent history, it's realpolitik goals and the morality of the situation happen to intersect: helping the Ukrainians is the right thing to do.RogueAI

    The Americans played a principal role in causing this war. They have no moral high ground to speak of.
  • UFOs
    This reminds me a little of the Chinese balloon incident, which many claimed was merely a story purposely blown up to divert attention to various failures of US policy.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Having said all that, if I was the Russians I would be very very nervous because, in the immortal words from the opening scene in Patton : "Americans are winners, we hate to lose and love to win" And in this instance winning is going to require something from left field.yebiga

    And not just the Russians.

    The US empire spanned the whole globe, and it's unlikely the Americans will let it crumble without a fight. The key question is where that fight is going to take place, since it seems the US is already weak to a degree that it cannot fight on all fronts.

    In my view, it won't be in Ukraine, since the United States shows no real commitment to a Ukrainian victory. Besides, Ukraine holds no direct strategic value for the United States, and its involvement there has more to do with attempts at hamstringing the Russians, which already seem to have failed.

    Then there's the Persian Gulf - the most important geopolitical area to the US, outside of the American mainland. Again, no sign of a reaction from the US while the area completely seems to slip from its grasp, into the hands of its former adversaries and geopolitical rivals. This is perhaps most shocking of all, and way more significant than anything that happens in Ukraine from a geopolitical point of view.


    The only place where the American sphere seems more or less intact is the Pacific, and with China being the real peer competitor to the US (not the Russians or the Iranians, etc.), this is where I believe the US will make its stand.

    However, in typical fashion the Chinese are biding their time, essentially waiting for the US to weaken further, as it's unable to commit to other threats to its sphere in fear of losing its grasp over the Pacific.

    In an ironic twist the Americans' trump card - Taiwan - seems to have turned into its achilles heel, basically requiring constant attention under threat of a Chinese invasion, disallowing them from turning their attention to other flashpoints.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    The UN voted a few times prior, but the suggestion of peacekeepers and votes could depart some from that, or at least perhaps bring more of what the parties want out in the open.
    Worthwhile? Try? Waste of time? Futile?
    jorndoe

    The UN General Assembly can vote, but such votings have no actual power. Only Security Council resolutions do.

    So until both sides are interested in a truce, these types of proposals should be seen as more political in nature. A way for nations to signal their stance on issues.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    As long as one or both sides are interested in continuing the war, UN involvement is practically impossible. For one, because Russia can veto any UN resolution it doesn't like, and secondly, one of the basic principles of UN peacekeeping is to have consent of all involved parties.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    I'm sitting across the table from a self-identifying incel of the virulent online kind I've earlier described. Let's call him a friend of a friend I have just met. He brazenly begins to expound on his misogynistic world view. What do I do? Is silence complicit? Is compassion complicit? Is polite debate legitimizing? Is opprobrium counter-productive? I'm reminded of Nietzsche's advice that to spare someone shame is the greatest charity but this someone is so immersed in shame and so apparently in love with it, it seems that neither further shaming nor compassion can work. What can work? We don't want them leaving the table thinking talking this way has no consequences but we can't batter them into submission either.Baden

    It depends on what one's goal is.

    If one genuinely wishes to help a person, anything that might nudge them in the direction of self-reflection would be enough. Rather than attempting to convince a person of their faulty ways in one fell swoop (such an approach virtually always fails), a single thought-provoking question may be enough to get a person to reflect. Note that asking such a question may signal one's disagreement in a non-judgemental way.

    If one's goal is to punish or discipline, then probably one ought to consider first whether it is one's place to do so.

    If one is defending against what one perceives to be a threat to one's own beliefs, then the issue lies as much with oneself as it does with the other person.

    The latter two goals are in most cases not going to be constructive. One's energy is best spent elsewhere.

    Going by the comments I have read on this thread, most seem to pursue the latter two goals, hence the lack of constructivity.




    For those interested in the wider social context of this 'incel' phenomenon I would recommend this documentary on Japanese 'hikikomori'; young, socially isolated hermits.




    The Japanese generally seem to have a more 'enlightened' way of dealing with social problems. Perhaps the fact that Japanese society at least makes an attempt at helping these people urges them to reflect rather than become resentful, which seems to be what happens in the West.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Uhh, actually no.

    It's not so simple, actually.
    ssu

    I never said it was simple.

    I said the fact that Russian air defense systems being able to take down anti-radiation missiles is a critical difference which your example doesn't account for.

    The real issue is fire discipline and the ability for the radar operator to know when to shut his radar off. The survival of a SAM unit isn't in it's ability to shoot down missiles, it's simply to understand when to not use the radar, when not to engage when to engage. Move and conceal your SAM's and use them only when the situation favors you.ssu

    Air defense systems have a purpose: to defend critical targets.

    When they have to turn off their radars and reposition to dodge incoming missiles, SEAD is effectively Suppressing the system while (assumedly) other air assets are taking advantage of this.

    Thus, being able to take down these incoming missiles rather than having to relocate is a big advantage.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Obviously you need both, but once you have the air force capable of winning air superiority, then you don't need so much GBAD.ssu

    Since Ukraine and probably also Russia will not meet that criterium at any point during this conflict, I don't see why this would be relevant.

    Ok, first an S-300 or S-400 system is quite useless without it's radars working.ssu

    Of course. The key here being that radars can be replaced. To destroy these modern systems it would take a lot more.

    Old iron bombs were used in Vietnam, so even that can work (if one is very careful).ssu

    Unguided bombs versus an S-400?

    I pity the pilot who gets that job.

    If the Ukrainians were keen on losing their F-16s as fast as possible, they'd use this approach.

    A great example is Israeli attack on Syria GBAD in the Bekaa Valley during "Peace for Galilee" operation named Operation Mole Cricket 19. The Syrian systems weren't so old in the early 1980's.ssu

    You're comparing two different eras.

    The Syrian air defenses weren't able to engage the anti-radiation missiles fired by the Israelis, because ground-based anti-missile defense wasn't really a thing back then. All their anti-air systems (coming from the '60s, mind you) were built to engage air planes.

    Russian air defense can engage incoming missiles, and the AGM-88, even the G variant, falls well within its maximum target velocity.

    This is of course a crucial difference.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    No, it is true. Just look at history: if you have a capable air force that can gain air superiority, then most of the kills will be done in air-to-air combat. Air superiority is the single most important factor in
    deciding the outcome of a modern conventional war. And when either side cannot gain air superiority, well, you have a war that likely will go on for a long time. Hence for the Ukrainian air force as it is smaller than the Russian air force, it's first objective is simply just to exist.
    ssu

    Exactly. And not having any combat aircraft is a huge disadvantage: even having a small contingent of aircraft that are sheltered and not used are basically a fleet-in-being. As long as they exist, it limits the actions of the other side.

    First of all, GBAD cannot gain air superiority above enemy territory. Hence aircraft are crucial in winning an air war. An effective GBAD will result in what basically has happened in Ukraine: the other side simply won't fly in the area where there is the effective GBAD. That's what GBAD can do. But it won't destroy the enemy air force if the enemy doesn't fly. In this war both sides have opted just to use artillery, fire missiles at each other from their own airspace protected by their own GBAD.
    ssu

    The idea that an air force is a "more effective" method of air defense is untrue, as I explained. It functions as part of an air defense network, and it won't function on its own.

    But you simply can have early warning system and get the jets into the air to intercept them.ssu

    All my objections assume early warning.

    My country's own air force has dealt with this from it's birth and has never assumed to gain air superiority. For some reason, you never saw them flying high during the Cold War, but dashing on treetop level when flying from one place to another.ssu

    Even if the S-400 has a great range, again basic physics comes to play as you remarked to Boethius. The Earth is round and also Ukraine a big country. Hence you can do the math just how this effects target acquisition of radars and their ability to track low flying aircraft.ssu

    This is obvious.

    You don't seem to understand that flying low severely limits the effectiveness of fighter aircraft, especially for a nation like Ukraine which is starved for resources.

    Your argument was that the weapon system was old.ssu

    No. My argument was that modern Russian AA like S-300 and S-400 can shoot the AGM-88 down.

    Why don't you do your due diligence and figure out what type of AGM-88 the Ukrainians are receiving and how that relates to my argument?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Fighters are an integral and important part of air defense. Naturally you need GBAD starting from securing the airfields of the fighters, but the fact remains that you can fight against enemy aircraft with your own aircraft.ssu

    Note that you stated fighters are "a more effective alternative" - something which is simply untrue for the reasons I gave.

    Of course fighters can play a role in air defense, in the context of a modern army which also features various forms of ground-based / mobile air defense.

    On their own fighters would be terribly inefficient.

    You think fighters are (or would be) kept 24/7 in air? How about having them up when you have enemy aircraft up in the air.ssu

    Without the capacity to keep fighters in the air 'round the clock, the enemy would simply wait for all to be grounded before launching their attack.

    Considering these planes would have to be stationed quite far from the frontline, scrambling them only when there are threats in the air also seems unfeasible due to time, fuel and weight constraints.

    It's quite rare to have fighter aircraft on CAP 24/7.ssu

    Yes. Because, as I said, it's extremely inefficient. And modern militaries have ground-based systems to ensure such a task doesn't fall squarely on aviation most of the time.


    It seems you don't really understand the practical problems of using air planes in a defensive role in the conditions the Ukrainians would be flying under.

    Flying at low altitudes is essentially a given due to the threat of Russian anti-air systems. This means flying at decreased speeds (due to higher drag) and thus increased reaction times. It also means lower fuel efficiency.

    All of this translates into increased reaction times, low time on station. lighter weapon loadouts, etc.

    Are they now? AGM-88E came into service in the 2010s. AGM-88G is coming to service only now.ssu

    This is not an argument.

    First, find out which version the Ukrainians have received. Then, look up what specifications these upgrades altered. Finally, figure out how that relates to my argument, namely that Russian AA can shoot down AGM-88s.

    For reference, S-400 has a maximum target velocity of between Mach 8 and Mach 14.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    However, a small number of expensive planes can't be risked to conduct air strikes.boethius

    I don't see why not.

    Every use of these F-16s will incur some risk.

    One advantage the Ukrainians will have is the intel they are getting from the US and other nations will probably allow them to craft a fairly accurate picture of the Russian AA network and use it to their advantage.


    The other proposed roles for the F-16s I don't find so convincing. The Russians barely use their air force over Ukraine, and taking down missiles with fighters is not ideal for the reasons I mentioned.

    Are they going to put a 40 million dollar plane into the air to swat a handful of 20,000 dollar Iranian drones, with missiles that each cost a million also?

    Maybe they're anticipating a heavier use of air power by the Russians, however again I think planes would not be the logical choice if their intention was defensive use.


    Unless they're planning to keep them grounded, which I doubt, I think air strikes and bombing raids is what they plan to use them for. They might take a page out of the Israeli book. They are pretty crafty with their air force as well.

    For, the Russians can't risk much their expensive planes either, so as long as Ukraine has planes with missiles that can get into the air and shoot missiles then this is a big risk to Russian fighters.boethius

    I don't remember who it was, but don't the Russians have ~1,000 4th and 5th generation fighters lying around? Why wouldn't they be able to risk those?


    The F16's are better than having no planes at all, but everything you explain just emphasises they cannot get near Russian forces and their use is severely limited.boethius

    Depending how they operate, they can.

    AA systems may have hundreds of kilometers of range, but the radar horizon is a severely limiting factor when it comes to low-flying targets.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    Assuming the term 'incel' refers to this specific, somewhat radicalized internet group, the numbers probably aren't terribly high.

    But the amount of people who suffer under the same social problems is probably quite high, especially among the youth whose upbringing has been dominated by the birth of the internet.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Since WW1, it has been obvious that ground based air defence GBAD has a more effective alternative, namely fighter defence, other aircraft. And this is why GBAD has usually played the second fiddle in wars. The machine guns fitted to biplanes then were as potent or actually statistically more potent to shoot down enemy aircraft than artillery pieces on the ground. Nothing has changed since then as this is a matter of simple physics. A missile shot from an aircraft has already speed, doesn't need to climb as high and obviously the pilot with his speedy weapons platform can change places far more quicker than a land based one to get the optimum firing solution.ssu

    This is an inaccurate idea of how air defense works.

    Fighters are not efficient at air defense at all.

    Consider the amount of resources it would take to keep fighters in the air 24/7 in sufficient numbers to cover all important areas in Ukraine. Multiply that number by three to account for the fact that for every plane in the sky there are two on the ground (repairs/maintenance, refitting/refueling). Couple that with the fact that fighters are able to carry only a handful of anti-air missiles to stop salvos of dozens of Russian missiles/drones.

    For the Ukrainians this would be completely unfeasible, even without taking the threat of Russian anti-air into consideration.

    Hence if Ukraine wants cut off the land bridge to Crimea or some other do outstanding stuff, it is extemely difficult and perhaps impossible without denting the Russian GBAD. The are only few MiG-29s now capable of firing HARM missiles with the Ukraine Air Force.ssu

    Also suggesting a somewhat inaccurate idea of how SEAD works.

    AGM-88s are no magic bullets. In fact, they're pretty old.

    Modern anti-air systems like S-300, S-400, Pantsir, etc. can shoot these missiles down, and it would take absolutely massive volleys to get through a layered defense like what the Russians use. (Not to mention anti-radiation missiles only destroy radar transmitters. To actually destroy an AA installation it would take a lot more).

    Again, considering the resources the Ukrainians have, it is rather unlikely their aim is to degrade the Russian air defenses in any serious way.


    What SEAD might be able to accomplish for the Ukrainians is to provide temporary defensive cover to accomodate air strikes.

    And in line with what Mearsheimer argued, I think this is likely what the Ukrainians plan to do with the F-16s.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    Again, I think this incel problem is indicative of a wider trend among all the young (not just males) - increased isolation and social atomization, increased anxiety, depression, etc.

    The 'digital age' is doing a number on kids and young adults, by completely socially (and mentally) disregulating them.

    Perfectly normal people are unable to find a mate, and are looking for answers why. Predictably, some become very resentful.

    My sense is that a certain subgroup of people - extravert, confident, etc. - are still able to go about their social needs through the dating scene/dating apps/clubbing, whereas the more introverted, shy types completely miss the boat, since those types have always relied on a more gradual type of relation-building - something which is becoming harder and harder.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Because of pacification of the held areas, Russia isn't advancing?ssu

    That's my view, yes. Taking too much territory would greatly increase the risk of an insurgency materializing, which is almost certainly what actors like the United States are trying accomplish in the background.

    How about the simple fact that neither side has the capability for large-scale maneuver warfare [...]ssu

    That's compatible with my view. The Russians may not be in a hurry to rebuild their offensive capability if they're not planning on lauching a new offensive in the near future.

    It should be noted though, that the Russians have mobilized several hundred thousand men and have an elaborate arms industry, so I think the question of whether Russia is currently capable of lauching a new offensive is somewhat ambiguous.

    How did that Russian winter offensive go? Ah, they got Bakhmut!ssu

    Bakhmut wasn't an offensive, and there haven't been any real offensives since the initial invasion.

    Bakhmut was more like a siege. A slow strangulation. Mainly attrition warfare. More than anything it looked opportunistic, taking advantage of weaknesses in the Ukrainian line the Russians took the area around Soledar and Krasna Hora, after which they partially encircled Bakhmut and sent Wagner in to do the dirty work.

    It will take time for Russia to transform into a wartime economy, [...]ssu

    I'm no expert on the Russian economy, but according to Mearsheimer Russia isn't mobilizing to a war economy.

    And as those Ukrainian air defence systems have been mainly from Cold War stocks and the factories for additional missiles lie in Russia, Ukraine is urging for fighters and seems that the US obviously has noticed this problem and will start to give those fighters.ssu

    F-16s can't fill the role of ground-based anti-air systems, so I would probably look for a different explanation. Especially since Russia sports one of the most sophisticated AA networks in the world, and the F-16s would have to contend with that.

    Mearsheimer speculates that the F-16s are brought in to compensate for the lack of Ukrainian artillery, since (according to Mearsheimer) the Americans have ran out of artillery they can spare.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    A recent talk by John Mearsheimer on the Ukraine war, in which he delves into quite a bit of detail:



    Some interesting points he makes:

    - Mearsheimer believes the Russians will aim to (eventually) annex a little under 50% of Ukraine, including Odessa and large parts east of the Dnieper river.

    - The war has turned out to be a classic war of attrition, that the Russians stand to win due to factors of population and artillery imbalance. Mearsheimer estimates casualty exchange ratios to be roughly 2:1 in favor of the Russians. This is likely a conservative estimate as he also cites sources stating 3:1 or even 4:1 (in favor of the Russians). The 7:1 exchange ratio in favor of the Ukrainians that is regularly cited in news media he considers a bogus claim, considering Russia holds between a 5-10:1 artillery advantage. (Artillery being the primary factor in a war of attrition.)

    - In the Q&A Mearsheimer explains the role of the Biden administration in the outbreak of the war, pointing out that Biden was in charge of the Ukraine portfolio when vice-president under Obama, and was notoriously hawkish. He also notes that upon his election Biden likely took this view in relation to Ukraine further, 'doubled down', causing the increase in tensions shortly after his election in 2021.

    I personally think 'the Daltons': Biden, Sullivan, Blinken and Nuland, are the individuals who bear the primary responsibility for the outbreak of this conflict. They have been involved in Ukraine (and with each other) and sown the seeds for conflict for over a decade.


    I would add to Mearsheimer's second point that it's somewhat clear why the war turned into a war of attrition during this stage. Russia is not looking to take large chunks of territory while the occupied areas are still being pacified, and thus with more or less stationary fronts attrition is the way the Russians can still erode the Ukrainian fighting strength, which they seem to have been successful at.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    I mean, take a look at the posts in this thread. The stigmatization should be obvious.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    I wonder how many incels are also virgins. I don't think it's healthy for people to stay virgins for too long into their adolesence (unless they really want to). Sex will start to take a mythical place in one's mind, that in my experience it really doesn't deserve. Love does, but sex doesn't.

    Maybe incels should muster the courage to visit a prostitute at some point. :grin:


    I was referring to the social stigmatization. The rejection these men experience probably can't be called abuse in most cases, but their suffering is real. Unresolved suffering may lead to abuse, and an environment which is unable to recognize the dynamic will perpetuate and worsen that cycle.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    I'm not rooting for any team. I think you are, and that's why you're so eager to project that onto others who post here when things don't go the way you want them to.

    The frustration is palpable, but it is yours.

    Keep it to yourself or express it in a less passive-aggressive way. Don't burden others with your emotion.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Bakhmut has finally fallen it seems. Both sides more or less confirmed it.

    One thing that popped out to me about the last weeks is the barrage of misinformation from both sides. From an apparent Russian "crisis of command" featuring Prigozhin, to the Ukrainians 'pushing the Russians back', mere days before the final push for the city. In hindsight, it all seems phoney to me - attempts at shaping the information landscape or playing the public.


    The coming period will be interesting, to see if and where the Russians may continue to push for ground.

    My guess is that they will, since there are other Ukrainian cities in precarious positions, like Adviivka. Adviivka is under threat of being encircled, much like Bakhmut was, and has been subjected to Russian attacks for a long time.


    There was also the matter of the Patriot - Kinzhal encounter. Very interesting from a military perspective, since they're both modern missile systems.

    My guess is the Ukrainian forces received either Patriot PAC-2 or PAC-3 , both of which have been designed with the purpose of ballistic (read: hypersonic) missile defense. Therefore, if this weapon system was able to take down Kinzhal missiles it should come as no surprise. In fact, countering Kinzhal probably was the reason Patriot was shipped to Ukraine.

    Typically, when roughly equal missile systems compete, the attacker will seek to saturate the defending missile systems in order to overwhelm it. In this case it seems Kinzhal managed to overwhelm a Patriot battery with some ~six Kinzhal missiles. Five were reportedly shot down. Possibly other types of lower generation missiles were included in this salvo as well, but those are details we cannot access.

    All in all, very interesting but not very shocking.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    I don't want to be an apologist for their behaviours either.ChatteringMonkey

    Problematic behavior almost always stems from suffering, and in the case of incels that's pretty clear. Recognizing that doesn't make you an apologist.

    The incels represent a resistance to the liberation of women, but this is its self-image, its ideology, a manifestation of an underlying problem--and, I would say, a self-consciously countercultural reaching back to a patriarchal worldview that they have not in fact developed naturally from their communities.Jamal

    I would interpret it differently.

    Incels' resentment towards women probably has little to do with any real social theory, and more to do with something as simple as continuous rejection, or the perception of such. "You hurt me, I hurt you."

    I say perception, because probably a great deal of these 'incels' aren't quite as undesirable as they believe to be. As many have pointed out, people of all shapes and sizes find partners and get married, and that has always been the case. So the question is where they get these notions of worthlessness and undesirableness.

    Perhaps it's communicated implicitly through popular culture, which floods the young with artificial imagery of what success looks like. Perhaps it's through lack of a father figure or male role models. Maybe it's a combination of both.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    Why do they choose to be miserable?Vera Mont

    The social stigmatization, which is on full display in this thread, is probably a large part of the reason.

    The term 'cycle of abuse' comes to mind.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    The addictive, 'social contagion/social pressure' dynamics of social media also play a big role. I agree.

    It probably doesn't help that social media software is almost exclusively designed by the nerdy types that are mainly interested in numbers and maximizing the effectiveness of algorithms, and seem to lack awareness that their products are affecting are actual people.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    They shouldn't be expected to do it all on their own. What happened to their support network? The adult mentors and community organizers, coaches, teachers, scout-masters, den-mothers, big sisters and brothers, and church-ladies?Vera Mont

    A good question.

    My take on this is that parents are more overworked than ever, and lack their own support network to fall back on, which in previous generations was provided by for example grandparents and the extended family, perhaps even an entire neighbourhood. Again we see social atomization.

    The more people who are genuinely involved, the more balanced the child's upbringing will be. For today's young it's more likely to be the opposite; that only their parents are involved.

    If they even have both parents. The number of single parent households have been steadily increasing over the last decades, and I'd be interested to see if there's any link between that and the many problems plaguing today's young. I'd wager a bet that there is.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    In essence what it does is widen the community to which one must conform to he seen or heard. Thus expectations are much higher across such a broad sphere than they ever would have been in a small close knit circle of friends.

    Being aware of global society from our phones, we are aware of greater heights of beauty, greater depths of skill - from extreme sports to cooking to all sorts. We see the best of the best in every discipline going viral.
    Benj96

    It's an interesting dynamic, but I'm not convinced of its importance. For example, weren't high standards of beauty already available to everyone before the era of social media, through things like magazines and TV?

    I think the more important dimension is the one you address here:

    What used to be genuine popularity for your authentic self has become being a brand, self promoting, being all things to all people, and if you can't, fake it till you make it/edit the shit out of yourself, and this just isn't a true social relationship like the ones that evolved for millenia.Benj96

    And on social media platforms, what one shows to the outside world is malleable.

    It encourages young people to adopt fake personas - something that almost always goes hand in hand with the rejection of the authentic self and leads to a myriad of mental issues.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    Maybe they should get off their cellphones and go out to the baseball park or volunteer to pick up roadside garbage or join go a voter recruitment drive. You won't develop intimate relationships without meeting actual people in the actual world.Vera Mont

    Certainly, but it's not that simple.

    Social media, cellphones, the internet - all of these things have hijacked young people's minds, and their capacity for social interaction has diminished correspondingly, leading to a surge of mental issues like social awkwardness, anxiety, depression, low self-esteem, etc. Many of these also lead to self-isolating tendencies, further compounding the problem.

    The solution 'just go out and meet people' is a major barrier for the young who were caught up in this mess. It's their entire mental wiring that's messed up.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    Have we corrupted the beauty ideal as a society? How do we ensure every child grows up feeling attractive/ with good self esteem?Benj96

    It probably goes a bit beyond the beauty ideal, but it's certainly a part of it. Consider rates of plastic surgery for example, but also the photoshopping that happens on social media and the image of success that is forwarded in popular culture. It's depressing.

    It's like we're teaching kids from a young age to be narcissists (ergo, lacking core self-esteem and instead deriving it from the perceptions of others), turning the successful ones into social vampires and turning the others into anemic dregs. With narcissism social interaction is a zero-sum game.

    Social media plays a huge role in this.
  • Incels. Why is this online group becoming so popular?
    Young people everywhere are struggling with developing intimate relationships (and relationships in general), and that is a serious problem.

    I think increasing social atomization is at the root of this, basically forcing young people into an artificial dating scene that for obvious reasons doesn't appeal to nor suit many of them.

    The way this topic is treated in regards to young men is especially worrying, and some of the replies to this thread are an indication of that. Trying to force people who are clearly suffering into silence through derision and shame is exactly what creates resentment and pushes people over the edge to commit terrible deeds.
  • The Debt Ceiling Issue
    The issue with inflation and debt is how hidden their effects are, and perhaps more importantly, what kind of perverse incentives propel policymakers to accept (perhaps even encourage?) and downplay.

    Even when the writing is on the wall, the long-term, indirect nature of something like inflation will always give policymakers a patsy.

    I remember a while back having a discussion about inflation here, and for reasons I cannot possibly fathom it seemed people were desperate to find something other than economic policy to blame.

    As long as people believe there is such a thing as a free lunch, this problem will persist forever. What people must understand is that someone always has to pay, and 9 times out of 10 it's the common man who gets shafted.
  • Gender is a social construct, transgender is a social construct, biology is not
    Transgenderism has always struck me as seriously contradictory.

    On one hand it seems to dismiss notions of male/female stereotypes, yet on the other seems to work very hard to conform to them.

    On one hand it seems to advocate self-acceptance, yet at the same time doesn't accept the part of the self that is the physical body.
  • The Most Dangerous Superstition
    Rose is absolutely right.

    Structures of political control are, at their very best, a necessary evil, and they need to be questioned and mistrusted at every turn. One need not look very far in our history to understand why.

    These structures are by nature piloted by the worst mankind has to offer, and responsible for the worst excesses mankind has known. They rely solely on coercion, and are especially prone to corruption the larger and less transparent they become.

    In discussions on this forum I have often been confronted by just how far acceptance for such a rotten concept have nested in society, to the point where it's nearly impossible for people to admit that something as simple as law is completely predicated on coercion (ergo, threats of violence).


    At it's core, political structures are a manifestation of man's desire to control others. At the individual level we would immediately recognize this as an immoral desire. Ironically, at the macro-level, there where such desires can produce the most harm, we consider it completely normal.

    A dangerous idea indeed.


    Democracy and ideas of 'legitimate' government are the culprits, I believe. They produce a facade of participation and fairness, when in reality they are scarcely better than the feudal systems they so readily condemn (and through the process of corruption have a tendency to degenerate back into that very same state).

    It's much easier to recognize oppression when the rulers are wearing crowns and sitting on gilded thrones. By masking the dynamics of power, ideas of 'legitimate government' have expanded the power of the monarchs while lullling the public to sleep.
  • How would you respond to the gamer’s dilemma?
    It's a shoddy article.

    Luck skips explaining the key term for his question: morality.

    And this is where he goes wrong.

    He confuses morality with social convention, and as such starts asking himself nonsense questions, like whether it is morally permissible for a person to 'murder' a pixel on a screen.

    Morality and moral actions pertain to people, and not to pixels.


    He treats morality as though it is the same as social convention, however by pretending he is talking about morality he allows himself to reject the obvious answer to his dilemma: social convention dictates that certain things in video games are acceptable, and other things are not - on the grounds that it seems arbitrary.