Farage shouldn't be demonised. He should be acknowledged as representing the valid views of Eurosceptics. — Chris Hughes

I don't think Farage any longer represents the majority of Eurosceptics. I read a poll saying 2/3 of Brexit Party members prefer the Tory govt deal to no deal. I think many of them only cling to him because they understand none of it and he seems a chap who stands up for their 'interests' (aka fears). I have never believed the referendum endorsed no deal and I don't think many others at the time did. Farage has now co-opted the term 'Brexit' to mean no deal - as he says any deal is now selling out. He deals in simplistic slogans. His arguments never hold water under inspection - which is why he never allows anyone to disect them. My point was that 'clean break' is the most absurd mis-representation of what leaving with no deal represents, chosen to hoodwink his followers. I think it's sad that our politics is descending to a populist battle of one-line slogans. Politicians have followed Farage's success and now believe the best way to win voters is not to inform them but to poke them emotionally, either inciting fear or blind optimism.

His masterstroke I have to admit was using the term 'project fear' during the referendum, for all the negative economic predictions Cameron was fighting him with. The irony was that the term should already have been coined to describe the demonising of immigrants, and the impending tidal wave of them coming to swamp us, which led to calls for the referendum in the first place!

The analysis of a pollster on Newsnight last night was that any Brexit Party success is more likely to hurt Labour than the Tories, so Farage's 'threat' to split the Tory vote by putting candidates in 500+ constituencies looks hollow already. Part of the reasoning was that tribal Labour voters who are also leavers are less likely to defect to the Tories than to the Brexit Party, which would be more a protest vote. This of course assumes they can understand and stomach Farage's 'clean break' Brexit more than the Tory negotiated deal. ('Clean break' as in having your leg bitten off by an aligator rather than removed in a long hospital process, that is)

This may be the case now, but if there is a split in the leave vote, then it's game over and I can hear the cracks spreading. — Punshhh

Farage is already getting desperate and having to put up candidates for every seat. No sign of the Tories wanting a pact. They will push hard with 'a vote for the Brexit party risks letting Corbyn in'. And we havent got to the fun part of examining Farage's policies yet..

I also notice many of the Tory left-leaning MPs are not standing. More evidence that Boris has won and recast the party just as Corbyn did after fighting off his challenger for the leadership in 2016 (I think). Perhaps there will be a leakage of the leftie Tory vote to the Lib Dems? I am still intrigued to see if their cancel-Brexit policy gamble pays off.

Yes, the Tories have a deal in hand - but Labour’s offering a second referendum. If voters go for ref2, the nation, now veering to Remain, might be reunited (if ref1 Leave voters' concerns can be allayed). And with Labour, stay or go, we avoid Trump's corporate chlorinated chicken. — Chris Hughes

I cant see voters wanting another 6 month delay for ref2. Even if they swallowed that, the result will almost certainly be close and the arguing will continue. Also, the renegotiated Labour party Brexit deal is going to include Customs Union, Single Market membership, maybe even Freedom of Movement. All that is going to enrage Brexiteers who'll see it is Brexit in name only. So the referendum will be hugely problematical, divisive and if Remain wins the result won't be accepted by the leavers any more than the first one was by remainers. I can only see it making matters worse..

I'm a remainer too, but I think people want this exit deal put to bed. Yes part 2 will be just as complicated, but the prevailing view is 'let's get on with it.' Hadn't you noticed the 13% (and rising) Tory lead in the polls?

So, let's stay in and, firstly, use the same EU rules as Germany and France have to restrict the "free movement" of people. (Mobility of cheap labour is no freedom.) — Chris Hughes

Isn't that what David Cameron tried before the referendum, and came back effectively empty-handed? The UK has no power to influence the EU to change, and its 4 freedoms are sacrosanct. What are the rules you mention that France and Germany use to restrict free movement?

How does your AI learn language?


Oh, I see now where are coming from. I am talking about it in more abstract terms - what can and can not be done in principle. So in this example computer has already learned or has been programmed, and I don't want to go into those detail unless there is an argument it can not be done in principle. — Zelebg

I think that working out a structure for AI in principle is meaningless. You need to consider practice based tests like the Turing test. The advanced use of language is - as far as we humans know - essential for intelligence, so any 'principle' that does not answer how it is to be achieved in practice is suspect.

No God; just genetic inheritance and evolutionary principles..
My ability to conceive a perfect circle although none can ever exist is a function of a mind with an imagination which can extrapolate experience into ideals and create new concepts from them.
Evolution has given me such a mind.

I think that the qualia sense of experience is crucial. Without it there can be no consciousness nor free will. You need some externally derived driver for pain and pleasure. Without their stimuli the concept of 'will' is impossible to actualise. So-called free will has to choose between criteria for a decision. Ultimately, the way it decides is by weighing the pain/pleasure the different choices will entail. You could simulate pain and pleasure by alloting scores to visual cues but I think you would then produce a very odd and limited form of intelligence.
Do you include mirophones to catch sound ? How does your AI learn language? Without it how can it conceptualise and express complex ideas?
Actually this subject interests me too and I have thought about the practicalities of a computer based consciousness. It seemed to me you'd have to synthesise all the attributes of a human. There is no short-cut. Still, I don't want to sound dismissive.. :smile:

The Conservatives will need 326 seats (out of 650) to get back into government. — Punshhh

Assuming Sinn Fein win back their current 7 seats, and they don't take them, and allowing for the Speakers & deputies who don't vote, the total is 640. I think much will rest on whether Boris's Tories can eat the Brexit Party vote down to 10% or less. I think they will. The Brexit Party is little more than a protest vote - in the EU elections they didn't have any policies at all! I don't think whatever policies they cobble together will stand up to full scrutiny in a general election. And with a deal in Boris's pocket he can ram home the message that a Tory victory is the quickest path to Brexit until even the dumbest Faragists agree. Boris just has to keep reminding them that any vote for the Brexit Party risks letting the remain parties in..

Well it's gone through now. Dec 12th it will be. I must admit that after hearing the result of the 2017 election I did not believe a Brexit deal could be agreed by parliament. Finally my prediction has been proved right. I should have bet the house on it!

We're going to have an election, Labour is supporting it now. (there is also a rumour that it might be followed by a no confidence vote) — Punshhh

Don't be too certain just yet. The election bill can now be amended. So it may include votes for EU nationals, 16-17 yr olds; and be on Dec 9th, which will be a public holiday, before MPs have finished. Boris could yet be so afronted he'll pull the bill. It's not a no-confidence vote, so he has that right, just as (he says) he's doing for the Brexit Withdrawal bill..

Finally a decision from the EU on a Jan 31st extension. Hopefully now Corbyn will have to man up. If he keeps looking like he's running from a December election it can only harm his chances. He's repeatedly talked about agreeing to one as soon as no deal is no longer an option. Well, that's now. Or maybe he won't want to disturb his Christmas shopping..

Party loyalty is not a basic instinct among MPs, it follows logically from what is at stake for them personally. When the leader was elected by them, they had to be loyal or else they would be responsible for the failure of their own favoured policy. Now they don’t have much to lose by voting against their leader since he was never their real leader in the first place. — Congau

I agree that election by the members means the likes of Boris will win vs Jeremy Hunt any time - a populist who simplifiies things will get his priorities through quicker than someone whose approach is more nuanced. But don't forget, before the Tory members voted, their MPs whittled the candidates down to 2. And Boris was way ahead all the way through that process. I don't think you can say the majority of his MPs don't support him, or that they'd elect a different leader given sole choice.

It's a problem caused by the hung Parliament — Tim3003

No, the hung parliament is not the problem since many conservative MPs have also voted against the various deals proposed by May and Johnson. — Congau

The likes of Maggie Thatcher and Tony Blair always had large enough majorities to allow them to disregard the 'extremists' in their own parties. Since 2010 we have not had such a stable majority govt. Maybe the times are changing and we'll have to get used to coalitions like much of the rest of Europe has..

In the old days, when the prime minister was elected by parliament and not by party members, the whip had power and could force his MPs into line with their leader. It was in their own interest to support the PM from their own party even if they didn’t agree with him a hundred percent. — Congau

The whips still have that power - hence the 20-odd expelled Tory MPs. But Brexit is an issue where some MPS are putting the country before party loyalty, and good on them for doing so! I think Brexit is such a huge decision that with no majority govt the normal Westminster tactics are creaking under the strain. But that doesnt mean normality won't be restored in time..

Regarding the public, there are a lot of voters who think that "getting it done", means it will all be sorted. This is one of the worst deceits of the government, they know it won't be done, we will have another decade of it. There certainly won't be any certainty. The only way to stop it is to revoke, support for a people's vote may be increasing now, it's difficult to read though along with anything else at the moment. — Punshhh

I agree it won't all be sorted for years yet, and there will certainly be an outcry against the continuing payments the UK has to make in the transition period. Indeed I've just read the UK will lose its rebate, so we'll be paying more than whilst in, still be subject to EU laws, and with no say! But once the withdrawal deal is passed it becomes a matter of when rather than if. I can't see support for another referendum doing anything but reducing from here as even hardened remainers start to accept the inevitable - assuming, that is, Boris wins the election..

there are a lot of Tory's near the top of their party who have had to hold their noses to go along with the stench coming out of No10 already. Some don't want an election now and others want to try and pass the bill anyway, allowing more time. — Punshhh

The problem for the Tories if they delay is the bill getting amended. There is very close to a majority for adding a customs union to it - all opposition plus a handful of Tories would support it. So Boris can't really aford to risk going throught the rest of the bill. He would ideally like to stick to Oct 31st, but that's surely now impossible, so an election it'll have to be. As Wayfarer says: Corbyn cannot really refuse when the EU offer an extension and no deal is no longer possible before the new govt gets in.

Are you confident that the British public won't eventually see through this smoke and mirrors and doublethink of the vote leave campaign. — Punshhh

I think the general public are totally bamboozled by the whole Brexit farrago, and just want it to end. They don't understand what's going on and that leads to fear of the unknown. Basically, they'll give anything for certainty - even a bad deal...

Congau — Congau

It's a problem caused by the hung Parliament we now have. A minority govt has elected a new leader and the Fixed Term Parliament law prevents him from calling an election mid-term without the support of some of the opposition. It's very unusual that the opposition doesn't want an immediate election - the daftness of the no deal Brexit cliff-edge has brought about this situation. I would doubt it will ever be repeated.

the Letwin amendment withholds approval until the whole bill has been amended and agreed. So it has not actually been approved. — Punshhh

That won't stop Boris saying it has in the election campaign. And if he gets a majority it's certain to go through the rest of the parliamentary stages.

Boris seems not to want to discuss an extension with the EU, as he doesnt want one. So he's leaving it up to them to decide on its length. This of course allows him to avoid blame (he hopes) for missing his Oct 31st deadline - ie the delay was a stitch-up between parliament and the EU. He also hasn't tried too hard to agree a more realistic timetable with Corbyn as he knows the bill would be mutilated. So we have the odd situation of the EU deciding the timescale for what happens next. I doubt they'll want the Corbyn short entension for the same reason Boris doesn't. So will it be Jan 31st, and an election at the start of December?

Interestingly a poll Daily Express poll reports 2/3 of Brexit party voters are happy with the deal, so I think Farage's bolt is shot. Also over 1/3 of remain voters now think the deal should go through..

Also I think you are being less than generous to the EU about the negotiations over a trade deal. They have behaved impeccably throughout the process and all the nonsense and delay is on the side of the government. They certainly would'nt be playing games to get a few more membership payments. Also I disagree with any suggestion that the EU is delaying or something in the hope that a more moderate government gets into power in the UK. — Punshhh

I agree with you that the EU have behaved impeccably. I didn't accuse them of deliberately delaying, I said the ERG will think they are, and that's one of the smears they will use to whip up anti-Brussels sentiment.

Anyway, the deal has passed now on 2nd reading, so it's now a matter of the time it takes to go into law. Notably Boris insisted 'the UK will leave with this deal' - no mention of Oct 31st, after the programme motion went down. He didn't quite throw his toys out of the pram and go for an election. So I assume he will ask the EU for as short a delay as he thinks parliament would accept. Maybe only a week. The longer the delay, the more chance of MPs adding amendments to the bill and sabotaging it. I'm still not sure whether he'd rather call the election with the deal fully passed, or with that as his campaign's main aim. Perhaps he'd prefer it passed, to prove he's done it, hence his investigating a short extension first. But if he can only get 3 months he'll surely plump for an election and aim to get a big enough majority to pass it unmolested.

From the Guardian article noted above:

"But Downing Street is braced for potential defeat on the so-called programme motion setting out the timetable, as it suspects some pro-deal Labour MPs and a few Conservatives may not support plans to rush it through the Commons within days.

Veteran Conservative Ken Clarke said: “Unless you are prepared to contemplate more expansive debate, there is not the slightest possibility of considering the deal that has been obtained within the time available.”

If the programme motion falls, the government has little chance of “getting Brexit done”, as Johnson calls it, by 31 October."

The ERG logic for a no deal is simple, they simply want to leave the EU in the cleanest way possible. What happens next following a no deal exit is irrelevant, really. Although they each have their vision, or unicorn that they hope for.

Are you aware of the position that the goal is to leave, fully properly, a clean break. For the people who hold that position that is all that matters. — Punshhh

I know that is true for the simplistic Farage supporters, but I'd have thought that ERG MPs would have more sense. One of the benefits of leaving is supposed to be the ability to negotiate our own trade deals with other countries. That includes the EU, who are by far our biggest trading partner. Having a transition period will allow that negotiation to proceed with willingness from both sides. If we just cut and run then why would the EU rush to agree such a deal? I know the ERG logic that no deal would hurt them as much as us, but that is demonstrable rubbish. 44% UK trade is with the EU, but only 8% of EU trade is with the UK. fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
So who'd suffer most from the imposition of WTO tarifs?

I suppose maybe they think the EU will keep delaying and ensure the trade negotiations drag on for several years, during which time we are still paying in to the EU and subject to its laws, and during which time a new UK govt could come in with a pro-EU mandate. However, once the withdrawal bill passes we have left and article 50 can't be rescinded as far as I know, so a process to rejoin would have to start from scratch..

the commentators are saying that the implementation period ends Dec' 2020 and that an extension must be agreed in June 2020. It is suggested that it was by dangling a no deal Brexit at the end of this period if a future deal is not agreed by then, which brought the majority of the ERG on board on Saturday. — Punshhh

Yes but as I understand it, that 'no deal' is no trade deal - not no withdrawal deal, which is what we are threatened with now. I think 'no trade deal' is less of a disaster. It would just put the EU/UK on the same trade terms as UK/US currently is. Okay, a bad deal compared to what we have whilst in the EU, but not a disaster like no deal at all. And a trade deal could be renegotiated by another govt in a few years time if the Tories cant agree one. It's not a once-or-never chance..

Anyway, what is the ERG logic for not wanting a trade deal with the EU? I can't see any advantages..

( the ERG only came onboard with Johnson's deal because there would be a no deal by default at the end of the implementation period in December 2020, which they are gunning for, if this is taken away, their support will fade). — Punshhh

Surely we have to assume that the implementation period will be extended. It was originally 21 months from the end of March 19, and that looked tight. There's no way a trade deal can be agreed in 1 year even if Boris's deal is agreed by Oct 31st, especially if we lose say 2 months of that year for an election and bedding in of a new govt. Both the UK and the EU must accept that. I havent heard the Tories insist on Dec 2020. Once the withdrawal bill passes Boris can say he's kept to his promise, so hopefully there's no longer such a rush..

↪Tim3003
But it's look now that there is going to be a confirmatory referendum tacked on. Or failing that a confidence vote in the last week of October. An accidental no deal at the end of October is not looking likely now as Oliver Letwin is happy and doesn't think he will be bringing any other amendments, so Corbyn will be lining up for the no confidence vote now. — Punshhh

My feeling is that an amendment tacking on a confirmatory referendum wont pass. No Tories will vote for it, so everyone else would have to, and I'm sure a few Labour MPs won't want to delay things any further.. It would need a 6 months extension from Brussels I think, unlike the 2 or 3 months for an election, and there'd be huge irritation among the public..

I assume that as the EU seem to have taken Boris's official letter seriously - unsigned or not - no-deal is virtually dead - at least for now.

↪Tim3003

Another hung parliament sounds like a neverending nightmare! Maybe if the polls predict one during the campaign voters would vote tactically to prevent it?

l can't see a way to avoid it, at least if there is a coalition of the opposition they will enact their plan and the deadlock will be broken by a public vote, a referendum. I put the stalemate down to the inept performance of the government, they should have reached across the isle following the referendum and formed a coalition across the house for a way forwards on such a fundamental change in the future of our country. But they put their own narrow party interest before that of the country. — Punshhh

If Boris gets his deal through, as I now think is likely if MPs get to look at its detail and are reassured that the govt don't plan a race to the bottom re workers' rights and green policy, then how can he lose the election? Any opposition policies on overturning Brexit will be greeted as sour grapes and dismissed by the Tories. Farage is a dead duck - well, mortally wounded I'd say. I think Boris's charm will win voters over. They'll trust him, despite his impossible 'lower taxes and more spending' policies - Trump won with that manifesto..

As I said earlier, if the deal isn't passed and there's an extension for an election, I think the fact that Boris has a deal will persuade enough would-be-remainers that the time has come to hold their noses and accept it. Party loyalties may well count for little. It'll be a Brexit election.

Already I hear that Johnson sent a photocopy of the letter unsigned, with an accompanying signed letter saying that the first letter is not his words, but those of Parliament and that any delay would be harmful to both Britain and Europe. I wonder if there are threats included. He insisted that he will continue pushing his deal through parliament and will leave by 31st.

I know that they have the measure of him, but if you have a petulant child, it is difficult to manage them without having to step over any red lines. — Punshhh

UK politics must be a laughing stock worldwide by now! The EU are going to hold off granting the extention to the last minute - but grant it they will if need be. They hope that parliament will be scared into voting through Boris's deal before then. It's going to be a game of bluff over the next 2 weeks..

The Letwin amendment has just passed and the government has pulled the meaningful vote, intending to bring it back on Tuesday. — Punshhh

And Boris still insists on the Oct 31st deadline and refuses to negotiate an extension with the EU. This could be fun for the lawyers..

↪Tim3003

There will still be plenty of remainers left, but with Brexit-fatigue and a deal on offer I expect the pro-Brexit vote to be 65% or more. Boris can spare Farrage 10% and still romp home.

That's not quite how I see it, I think there is a high likelihood that the Tory's will win the most seats though. But if they don't have a majority, who would they negotiate a confidence and supply arrangement, or a coalition with? — Punshhh

Another hung parliament sounds like a neverending nightmare! Maybe if the polls predict one during the campaign voters would vote tactically to prevent it?

Also, this Letwin amendment has thrown a cat amongst the pigeons. Boris is now saying today's vote may be pulled if it is allowed..

I would agree with you if the they win the vote tomorrow, although I wouldn't expect such a large majority in the election. However if they lose and it's looking to be by about 10 short at the moment. Then I doubt Johnson will have so much traction during the campaign. He will still have the same problem, if he runs on the deal he's got, or a similar deal he will not drain support from the Brexit party because they think it is not leaving, Farage said as much this morning. Whereas if he runs on a no deal, he loses a sizeable chunk of support who don't want a no deal. So we are back with the infighting in the Conservative side of the argument ( I am regarding the Brexit party as an extreme wing of the Conservative party here). — Punshhh

I think Farrage over-estimates how much of his support is no-deal-of-any-sort voters, and how many just supported him because they thought Boris would not get a deal and would not get no-deal through because parliament wouldnt let him. That made the Farrage way seem the quickest. Speed is what many people want. I hear 'Just get it done' over and again on News vox-pop interviews. Assuming the vote fails tomorrow and no-deal on Oct 31st is prevented by the Benn act, what is the quickest way to get Brexit done? It's an extention for an election, with the Tories winning. No Brexiteer is going to vote for Labour's 'start all over again' route, nor the Lib Dems cancel-Brexit idea. Boris knows that and will campaign ruthlessly on it.. There will still be plenty of remainers left, but with Brexit-fatigue and a deal on offer I expect the pro-Brexit vote to be 65% or more. Boris can spare Farrage 10% and still romp home.. Sadly other issues will probably be swamped at the election.

↪Tim3003
I am not so convinced about the numbers in parliament, the DUP's 10 votes are gone and I doubt there will be more than 5 Labour rebels. This deal is far worse for Labour as it leads to a greater divergence from the EU than May's deal did, leading to a Singapore like destination. I can't see Labour rebels wanting to be blamed for pushing that over the line. Also Tory rebels like David Gauke, or Dominic Grieve are not going to be happy.

Also there may be some spartans who think it's a betrayal in the other direction. It will be interesting to watch how the support builds, or wanes over the next couple of days. — Punshhh

I think as long as the vote is close - say no more than 10 in it, then Boris can request an extention to hold an election. Most Labour MPs won't back him, but all the talk about worker's rights suffering is a red-herring - that is the 'direction of travel' part of the political declaration, ie not set in stone and up for discussion as part of the future trade deal negotiations. If Labour do not like what the Tories propose they can challenge it further down the line.

With a deal in his pocket I think Tory support will build and the Brexit party will lose most of its vote. Are there really that many Brexiteers who'd prefer no deal to a deal? I suspect a 100+ seat majority for the Tories at that election. The fact that Boris has missed his Oct 31st deadline he can blame on parliament - he's got a deal; it's them who've forced an extention. I am looking for an opinion poll to see if the figures have shifted since the deal was agreed. I'm betting the Tory lead is well into double figures..

Not so fast, a lot of the swing votes were waiting to see what the DUP say. Also what they've agreed over NI is a dog's dinner, we will have to see what the swing voters and particularly the Labour rebels think about it. A border pole in Stormont every 4 years, who would agree to that — Punshhh

I think the Tories will back Boris rather than the DUP. The dreaded backstop is gone, and that was the main stumbling block for the ERG. Teresa May's deal passed in the Commons with the backstop removed remember.. In an election almost no voters on the UK mainland care much about the Northern Irish problem anyway. And in the end the determination to get Brexit done will persuade the ERG to cut the DUP loose and follow their leader. They can't really claim there's a better deal out there and tell him to try again can they?! As for Labour, don't forget plenty of their MPs are in leave-seats and will feel huge pressure to back a deal.

As for the agreement re NI. Anything agreed was going to be a dog's dinner. It's basically a problem of squaring the circle - impossible to keep all sides happy. I think most Tories will decide that the DUP having to settle for a sub-optimal deal is the least worst outcome. I think it has yet to sink in what a huge victory for Boris this is. He has got the EU to back down over the backstop and his take-it-to-the-wire negotiating strategy has thus been totally vindicated. Few would have forecast this. Ok, he's allowed the border in the Irish sea, which as May said and he parroted 'No UK PM could ever do', but as we know, populist politicians can U-turn without their voters caring one jot if their basic aims are met. The ERG will be crowing like grinning ravens over the coming days. They can hardly vote against a leader who's done all they asked..

I even saw Farrage looking a bit crest-fallen when interviewed. He's holding out for no-deal, but the ground is fast falling away from under him. Likewise Junker is saying 'No extention'; but if the deal goes down narrowly in the Commons and Boris asks for one for an election in which the polls have him 10 pts ahead will Junker (or to be accurate, the EU 27) opt for no deal instead? I think not..

Deal agreed: Well, that's it. Boris has won.

The DUP are now expendable. The Tory rebels on both wings will all now come back in-line, thus healing the recent rift. If the vote on Saturday still does not pass then we'll have a short extention for an election - which Boris can blame on parliament. He can then stand for re-election with a deal in his pocket. Brexit fatigue ensures the opposition have no chance of selling 2nd referendums/ no Brexit policies against that. So Boris is returned with a decent majority, and the deal is voted through by the new parliament. Brexit happens, probably in January...

Of course, everything he does is a trick and a trap. Doesn't change the dynamics. The opposition currently have Boris by the proverbials. He gets a last-minute deal and he has them by same. They can wreck it and absolve him of the responsibility for no-deal / more endless stalemate. Or they can pass it and make him a hero. Either way he wins. Ergo, I predict he now dumps the DUP, swallows the NI only backstop, and goes for Brexity Labour MPs to replace that lost support (and they will come under enormous pressure from their constituents to vote yea). — Baden

The problem with this strategy is that the EU will not agree a deal if they even suspect it wont go through parliament. And I think the DUP view is crucial to their calculations. Are Brussels sure enough about the support for a deal in the Labour party to risk it without the DUP's support? I doubt it. And that's assuming Boris can count on the 20-odd Tories he's thrown out, plus the Spartans..

It does look like going down to the wire - as the ERG always said it would. However, their view was that the EU would give ground in the final hours. It looks much more like Boris is doing the giving from the little we are hearing.. My hunch is that Boris will want so much to be the hero who clinches a deal with the EU that he may well do so, but at the cost of getting one parliament can vote for. He'd rather blame them than Brussels because painting MPs as the enemy will help his election chances more.

Presumably the promise was for parliament to carry out the will of the people with due care to the country and if unknowingly carrying it out were to put the country in peril, to refrain from doing that and to find another solution.

I would suggest that Parliament's duty is firstly to the Crown and secondly to the people and that parliament would hold an oath to the Crown to have a duty of care to the country, first and foremost. — Punshhh

The idea that a no-deal exit would put the country in peril is maybe putting it a bit strong? My reading of the Brexiteer credo is that leaving is not primarily an economic matter, it is one of politics and freedom. 'We want our country back' sums it up. We can argue against the idea that leaving the EU would achieve that, but in the minds of those who believe it, any thwarting of the referendum outcome is unacceptable. The democratic principle is more important than the economic reality to these people. What they hate is the idea of the Wesminster elite patronisingly telling them that they're wrong and their wishes should be ignored. However questionable their decision-making, this is hard to refute to my mind.

When he asks for the extension there is going to be an almighty push to put the blame on everyone else trying to thwart Brexit, the will of the people. The idea being that it will build up a head of steam and give him a majority in the looming general election. — Punshhh

Well it's already looking like the EU arent going to bend to Boris's will. It must be time for J R Mogg to pipe up about the Benn act which prevents no deal allowing the EU to play hard-ball in the negotiations. I almost wish Boris could negotiate with no-deal really on the table to see what the result would be - maybe with a secret agreement with parliament to stop no deal at the last moment..

As for the election. I think if Boris fails to take the UK out on Oct 31st his election chances will be hit. At least some of those who thought he could get Brexit done and wasn't just another dithering politician may think again..

Government documents submitted to Scotland’s highest civil court today state that the prime minister will seek a Brexit extension from the EU if no withdrawal deal is reached by 19 October.

Boris Johnson said he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than seek a further delay, and the revelation in court appears to be in direct contradiction of that statement and throws the question of whether the UK will leave the bloc on 31 October into fresh doubt.' — Amity

I've heard that the answer could be yes, he will ask the EU for an extension, but he will also 'bribe' the Poles to veto the EU proposal to grant one by putting pressure on their relationship with the UK. I'm not sure how he can exert greater pressure than the EU can - maybe via trident missiles?!

The question of whether or not Brexit has been settled is going to be criticial in the election. Because it's effectively an issue of nationalism it has polarised opinion across the old party boundaries. If it hasn't we're heading for the same situation as Northern Ireland and Scotland, where the whole political landscape is divided up along nationalist or unionist lines. At the moment Brexit is drowning out all other political issues and I think the party conference promises are gaining little traction with voters. If Article 50 is extended pre-election then Brexit could cause the sort of seismic shake up in the political map which happened in Scotland 10 years ago. (What makes me laugh is that the 'Conservative and Unionist Party' is the biggest mainstream voice for nationalism, with Boris's Tories happily willing to sacrifice their core principles in the name of Brexit.) Maybe the Lib Dems and Labour will have to work together and not stand in eachother's best seats to keep the Tories/Brexit Party out..

I don't see what you mean about Boris having to hold the Tory party together. Surely he has already split it by ejecting those last few Remainers. It is now a Brexit party, cast in his image. His votes in the leadership contest were cast on this understanding and the Tory vote at the next election will be leavers-only. The Brexit party cannot amass enough support for a 'clean' no-deal Brexit - its preference, as even the most fanatical right-wingers in the Tory party know a deal is better than no-deal. Farage preaches to the simplistic Brexiteers who want it at any cost ASAP. These are surely only a minority of the Brexit vote. But the Brexiteer vote won't be split in an election because the Tories won't be standing on a leave-with-a-deal platform: Either we will have done that, or Boris will have had to extend Article 50, and it will be clear no deal is the only future option for him. Hence the Brexit Party has no USP. Recent polls have the Tories well ahead of Labour, and a majority is quite possible for them. It's probable that the Lib Dems and Labour will split the Remainer vote so Boris's path back to No 10 with a majority is clear - assuming he can shed all blame for having to extend Article 50 that is. But he can doubtless blame the Remainer parliament for ignoring the wishes of the people and forcing him as he's done successfully already.

He needs to bring everyone with him right to the very last day and hold a metaphorical gun to their heads. To either agree a deal, a deal which few will actually support, or push them of a cliff, which will take everyone else over with them. This also gives him the opportunity with Cummings to conduct some chicanery in the chaos at the point of the acute crisis he will create.

The problem he has is that if he commits one way, or the other, he looses the support who want to go the other way and he would be finished and Corbyn would get in — Punshhh

I think you've answered your own question - chicanery. No deal will be blamed on the EU for being intransigent despite the UK 'working flat out' to get a deal. Or if a deal is agreed and parliament rejects it, then they get the blame. If a deal is agreed and voted through then Boris is the hero. Boris doesn't need to win, he just needs someone to blame if things go wrong. He can then hold an election against the backdrop of a discredited parliament.

The only fly in the ointment is the doubt that he can force a no-deal Brexit through - seemingly against the law, as he insists but no-one outside the Cabinet believes. If he has to ask for an extention to article 50 he will presumably refuse. If he resigns, triggering an election, can he be prosecuted for disobeying the law? If I understand correctly, he can resign, but he is still PM and his govt are still in place until the election, so subject to the law. So we end up back in the Supreme Court?!