What does it mean for a theory to specify what conditions necessitate consciousness or any other phenomenon? What does it mean that a theory has force or is robust? Why must a theory specify what conditions are necessary for a phenomenon rather than just sufficient? — T Clark
I'll see if I can explain with a simple example (it has to be simple because I don't know much science):
To what temperature do I have to heat this water to get it to boil? Prediction: it will boil at 100 degrees provided the following necessary conditions are met:
- sea level atmospheric pressure
- and all the obvious ones like having a heat source and a container that conducts heat etc
...when all these
necessary conditions are met they will be
jointly sufficient for the water to boil at 100 degrees. That is to say that even if one of the necessary conditions are not met then the water will not boil, and if
all the necessary condition are met, they are jointly sufficient, which means the water MUST boil at 100 degrees.
It can't not.
Further, a theory which tells a story about pressure and temperature of different materials and states of matter and so on will then explain why we get the result we do, and will be flexibly able to predict the phase changes of different materials under different circumstances, and that's how we test it: we make a bunch of predictions and then do the experiments. The theory will spit out the necessary and sufficient conditions for each phase change.
Applied to consciousness, a well-fleshed out theory will tell us the necessary and sufficient conditions for consciousness to arise at all, and perhaps even go further and tell us what particular experiences a conscious thing will feel under what circumstances. So to take
@apokrisis preferred theory, the necessary conditions for x to be conscious are:
- models environment
- makes predictions based on that model
- for the purpose of building and maintaining itself as an organism (sorry if I got that wrong)
...and I presume these are taken to be jointly sufficient for consciousness. That is to say, if they are all met, x is most definitely conscious,
it can't not be. (It wouldn't be much of a theory if they weren't jointly sufficient. That would be like saying "Water needs to be at atmospheric pressure at sea level before it will boil at 100 degree, but sometimes it just doesn't, even when those conditions are met. Water is weird like that." That's an incomplete theory, no? It fails to predict.")
So
@apokrisis preferred theory makes a great reasonably clear prediction, because it specifies the necessary and sufficient conditions. The trouble it shares with all theories of consciousness is that we can't test it. We can use it to predict a human being is capable of being conscious, and predict a rock isn't. But we can't check, because we don't have a consciousness-o-meter. And if we use the theory to check, (i.e. we look to see if the organism models the world to make predictions in order to create and maintain itself as an organism) then we have just assumed the thing we are trying to show.
EDIT: this is why I keep asking variations of "So why can't that happen without consciousness?" The analogy with water is "Why can't water just stay unboiled at 100 degrees at sea level pressure?" And of course the theory answers that, it says why the jointly sufficient conditions
necessitate that the water be boiling. It's not enough for a good theory to merely
observe that water does in fact always boil at 100 degrees. There needs to be an explanation. And the situation with consciousness is even worse, we can't even agree on what to observe to detect the presence of consciousness - we don't even have an undisputed regularity of nature to explain. If we did have a consciousness-o-meter, that would give us a huge head start in developing a theory. We do have reports of human beings and the inference to other minds by abduction, that's a start, but it only tells us other humans are likely conscious, it tells us nothing about rocks (not without making a bunch of assumptions anyway).