'The Conversation No One Knows How To Have' — xraymike79
Why would we be skilled at discussing our demise as a species? Talking about our own individual dying and death is hard enough, and there has never been any doubt about it happening, eventually. Extinctions happen to other species, certainly not us!
In short, no, I do not think it is possible to transition to a net-zero carbon emission civilization within a decade. The idea itself is simply absurd because it would require basically returning to a pre-industrial society with none of the benefits which came from building the society provided by fossil fuels.
Well yes, it's absurd. Major social-industrial changes just can't be executed that fast. We should abandon individual auto transportation for mass transit. Building the mass transit systems required to replace personal cars (buses, light rail, trollies, trains, etc.) would take 30 to 40 years in a crash-building drive (Never mind how long it will take to convince the population that it was a do-or-die proposition.)
Then there is the carbon produced in the process of conversion: melting down 125 million cars and building a national transit system is a heavy-industry project. The end result might be clean and green, but getting there would be pretty dirty.
Then there is the pre-industrial angle. We can't have the benefits of industrialization without the industry. Really low carbon transportation means walking, and maybe bicycling. But bicycles require at least some heavy industry. Get a horse? Horses are more ecological than automobiles, but back in their hay day (so to speak) of horse power, at least 20% of agriculture was devoted to feeding horses hay and oats, and that was for a MUCH smaller population (31 million in 1860).
Pre-industrial means pre-oil, pre-plastic, pre-natural gas, pre-wood/coal powered steam engines, pre-nuclear, pre-solar cells, pre lots of things. A remnant of the species might be
forced back into pre-industrial conditions, but nobody is going to willingly buy admission.
In short, we are screwed. I don't think we will go extinct, but I don't see the world sustaining 7.5 billion people in 100 years, either. Somewhere along the line, Mother Nature is going to cull the herd. Yes, it's hard to think about being part of the culled population, dying by the millions.