There are heaps of problems, enormous problems, nobody can ever doubt that. — Wayfarer
I'm very confident we could solve these environmental issues if we'd be willing. — Benkei
For a really depressing read, try
Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology, and the Fate of the Nation or
The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century James Howard Kunstler.
Kunstler writes both fiction (A World Made By Hand series) and books about the environment and urban design (
The Geography of Nowhere: The Rise and Decline of America's Man-Made Landscape is a book written in 1993 by James Howard Kunstler exploring the effects of suburban sprawl, civil planning and the automobile on American society). He is, essentially, a journalist, lecturer, and gadfly (an honorific in my opinion).
Kunstler's thesis in Too Much Magic and The Long Emergency is simple to state, complex to explicate:
We passed Peak Oil in 2006, the result of which is a long-term decline in oil production. The absolute end of oil will be when it takes more energy to extract oil from the ground than is in the oil itself. At the same time, the world population continues to grow, global warming continues, and many consequences flow from those three trends.
All of this is economically, politically, socially, and environmentally destabilizing.
COAL, OIL, and GAS have no replacements, and the world built and maintained since the industrial revolution until now can not be maintained without abundant supplies of these three fuels, particularly petroleum. Further, the would-be substitutes like solar and wind are most economically feasible when oil is relatively inexpensive and rare earths (Lanthanum, Yttrium, Scandium, Neodymium, Praseodymium, Cerium, Samarium, Promethium, Europium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Thulium, Holmium, Ytterbium, Lutetium) are on hand. The rare earths are also necessary for mathematics professor Tom Lehrer's Elements song. [see below]
It isn't that the rare earths are necessarily as rare as hen's teeth; some of them are not common; they just aren't everywhere; they often occur in combination; they are hard to separate out, and so on. The properties of rare earths are critical to a lot of our stuff -- the magnets in windmill generators, solar panels, all sorts of communication equipment, cancer medications, big batteries, etc.
The message of Too Much Magic is that our high tech culture requires cheap energy and petrochemicals to build it, operate it, and then replace it with more.
High tech will be the least of our worries when food and fresh water become scarce, which will happen whether we run short of cheap petroleum or not. 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11... billion people can not be sustained, and human population will crash at some point.
I pretty much agree with Kunstler's scenario, though I find his timeline a bit too short and his estimations overly pessimistic, mostly because of the short timeline.
Kunstler dismisses renewable energy out of hand. That despite some states generating a significant portion of their electricity (15% to 30%) from wind, solar, and hydro 4 years after he published Too Much Magic. On one particular sunny, windy day Germany produced 85% of its energy from wind and solar, at least for a few hours. After that happy day there was a month of clouds and still cold air and half the country froze to death.