A bit odd?

Some in Congress want to cut Ukraine aid and boost Taiwan’s. But Taiwan sees its fate tied to Kyiv’s
^{— Didi Tang · AP · Oct 9, 2023}

Ukraine’s survival is Taiwan’s survival. Ukraine’s success is Taiwan’s success. — Hsiao Bi-khim

Taiwan has been careful not to weigh in on the U.S. debate about continued funding for Ukraine

not a zero-sum game — Bradley Bowman

... Well, now add the wretched Middle Eastern escalation.

Other related news ...

Kremlin-Friendly Hungary Government Wants to Hold Back Some Ukraine Aid
^{— Jorge Valero · Bloomberg · Oct 3, 2023}
Slovakia halts military aid for Ukraine as parties that oppose it negotiate to form a new government
^{— AP · Oct 5, 2023}

↪javi2541997, say what...? — jorndoe

:brow:

Speculation that's come up more than once out there, that seems unlikely (to me): Are others eyeing Russian territory? After all, there's so much of it.

Japan raps Russia's 'illegal occupation' of disputed islets in rally
^{— Kyodo News · Feb 7, 2023}
Putin Is Opening A Door For China
^{— Alexander Etkind · NOĒMA · Apr 20, 2023}
Kremlin calls Polish decision to rename Kaliningrad 'hostile act'
^{— Andrew Osborn · Reuters · May 10, 2023}
Russia may be devoured by its neighbours (archived)
^{— Svitlana Morenets · The Telegraph · May 31, 2023}
Explained: Why Has Russia Rejected China's New Map, What All Territorial Disputes Does China Have With Neighbours?
^{— Madhur Sharma · Outlook (India) · Sep 4, 2023}

Might Moldova eye Transnistria? What of Kazakhstan? Georgia? Technically possible, but not likely (as far as I can tell anyway). Would certainly...complicate things. (What might Lukashenko do?)

, say what...?

They are free to attempt to get a different type of world. — javi2541997

To what end? Dictatorship, authoritarianism? Sortition? Democracy?

For the sake of our children's children, I'll run with the latter. Otherwise ...

I'll take the tedious task of ruling with an iron fist. — Nov 30, 2022

Your choice. :up:

Pavel Gubarev via Anton Gerashchenko on Sep 29, 2023

I wonder when those guys will declare independence (from Russia in addition to Ukraine), with guarded borders and all that. Maybe it's not in the cards. Anyway, harsh words. I thought the Kremlin was concerned with neo-Nazism, though?

not sure what else you expect me to say — Tzeentch

Well, expectations aren't so high I suppose, but at least you did respond to some. Stopping in the middle? Oh well, if you can't/won't.

What did you think of Stradner's post (Sep 30, 2023)?

Moscow mulling response to EU ban on Russian cars — Russian Foreign Ministry
^{— TASS · Oct 4, 2023}
Kremlin angry at Norway joining EU ban on Russian cars
^{— Charles Szumski · EURACTIV · Oct 5, 2023}

Nazism — Lavrov

Nazism — Zakharova

Yeah, Norway is Nazist. Not. So, for Putin's team, it takes pseudo-paranoia to avoid addressing why that was implemented (by EU, Norway) in the first place.

: "We appreciate your sentiment towards the Old Axis. We will rise again." ;)

, say, there are some marked differences between Kennedy (1917-1963) and Litvinenko (1962-2006). Anything further on those NATO and coup things, by the way?

FYI, EU and NATO as of 2022 ...



Ukraine is currently seeking membership of both, with encouragement from / support of most (a couple or so are uncertain). As far as the war goes, Ukraine has overwhelming UN support. There's a bit that the Kremlin ignores or wants to undo.

Things have taken some U-turns. [...] — Oct 13, 2022

The way that you phrased your hypothetical, those other countries would be forming a bloc that would function essentially the same as NATO. [...] — Tzeentch

Except it wouldn't. There'd be no NATO expansion involved for example (as linked), but rather a "defense agreement" involving "whoever" (perhaps including China). Okie, so, in this case, we wouldn't expect much difference from the Kremlin from what we're seeing today. (?)

That was the second of the two cases, the first didn't include such an agreement. What might we then have expected from the Kremlin?

[...] I also wonder how much of that 5 billion was spent on bribes. :sweat: — Tzeentch

Wonder away. As linked, the Ukrainians were and are looking to Europe rather than Putin's Russia, and are in the process of fulfilling EU membership requirements (despite invasion + being attacked) — democracy, ongoing efforts, hard work. At one extreme, declaring Kyiv a CIA puppet is misrepresentation, for example.

There have been quality elections in Ukraine since 2014, and they might have been hard to digest for the Kremlin. — Oct 5, 2023

Anyway, nothing new, these repetitions make things a bit trite.

EDIT: better links

I don't use RUTUBE myself; these folk have some unflattering comments:

Outrage in Russia after Putin's speech. Just look at these comments ← re Valdai 2023 Oct 5
^{— MCZ · essanews · Oct 6, 2023}

It's a farce in Russia. They showed maps and everything came to light ← re Sep 30 Russia enlargement
^{— PAB · essanews · Oct 5, 2023}

A takeaway is the crackdowns.

Moldova switches supplier, which might have some economic implications:

Moldova will no longer buy gas from Russia's Gazprom -RIA cites energy minister
^{— Louise Heavens · Reuters via Nasdaq · Oct 2, 2023}

If Ukraine's neutral status were threatened in some other way, we might expect the very same behavior from the Kremlin, especially if no meaningful dialogue takes place. — Tzeentch

Regardless of NATO (and the US)

I never said the Maidan coup was "just a US thing", so I'm not sure what misrepresentation you're talking about. — Tzeentch

A move to democracy against corruption etc

:up: (un-difficult)

, it's not difficult to understand. (+ cross-links included, not hard to find)

What might we then have expected from the Kremlin? (two cases now) ← fairly specific
What's up with the repeated misrepresentation anyways?

Not particularly difficult to understand, but could be difficult to respond to, depending... No matter, if you can't or don't want to. :up:

I didn't really see much response to the inquiries posed, , . Reads like responding to something else. :/

As to the former, now suppose that Ukraine had entered a defense agreement with, say, France, the UK, Luxembourg, Australia, South Korea, Japan, whoever, so that Ukraine had a multinational force (+ gear) present, and those countries had Ukrainian forces present. What might we then have expected from the Kremlin? (Say, anything significantly different from what we're seeing today?)

As to the latter ...

A "coup"? :chin: — Oct 6, 2023

Repeatedly calling 2014 just a US thing, ignoring the Ukrainians — like the Putinistas — is repeated misrepresentation. — Oct 6, 2023

The protests were sparked by President Viktor Yanukovych's sudden decision not to sign the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. Ukraine's parliament had overwhelmingly approved of finalizing the Agreement with the EU, but Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it. The scope of the protests widened, with calls for the resignation of Yanukovych and the Azarov government. Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations, and the influence of oligarchs. Transparency International named Yanukovych as the top example of corruption in the world. The violent dispersal of protesters on 30 November caused further anger. Euromaidan led to the 2014 Revolution of Dignity. — Euromaidan

By the way, that's not the "US–Ukraine Association Agreement", but the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement.

A "coup"? :chin: If so, then it's the right kind for good reasons, unlike various forceful army takeovers just by would-be dictators with guns, or this, or Jan 6 for that matter. They're now actively seeking to fulfill requirements for EU membership despite being in the middle of a war.

Indeed, notice that "the amount of money that was spent" wasn't a secret or anything, good point. The Ukrainians (and the UN) said "No" to the Kremlin (repeatedly), which invaded + grabbed land, accused Ukraine of being ruled by a Nazi regime, what-have-you. The Kremlin sort of moves toward a Cold War II, except now having learned from 1991.

There have been quality elections in Ukraine since 2014, and they might have been hard to digest for the Kremlin. — Oct 5, 2023

But there's nothing new in the above. Repeatedly calling 2014 just a US thing, ignoring the Ukrainians — like the Putinistas — is repeated misrepresentation.

Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club · Oct 5, 2023

Notice the old alternate world type stuff again?

We have to respond to the constantly growing military-political pressure. I have said more than once that we did not start the so-called “war in Ukraine.” On the contrary, we are trying to finish it. It was not we who organized the coup d’etat in Kyiv in 2014 – a coup d’etat, bloody, unconstitutional. Wherever it happens, we always immediately hear all the world media [mass media], subordinate, first of all, of course, to the Anglo-Saxon world: this is impossible, it is impossible, it is anti-democratic. But here you can. They even named the money, the amount of money that was spent on this coup. Everything is possible.
[...]
The war started by the Kyiv regime with the active, direct support of the West is now in its tenth year, and a special military operation is aimed at stopping it. And it reminds us that unilateral steps, no matter who takes them, will inevitably be met with retaliatory actions. Action, as we know, gives rise to reaction. This is what any responsible state, a sovereign, independent and self-respecting country does.
[...]
Look, you started with Ukraine and asked me whether it is fair that we publicly declare that we are striving for the denazification of the Ukrainian political system. But now we were just discussing the situation that developed in the Canadian parliament, when the President of Ukraine stood and applauded the Nazi who killed Jews, Russians and Poles. — Putin

Which makes this stuff ironic:

Unfortunately, we have to admit that our counterparties in the West have lost their sense of reality and have crossed all possible boundaries. In vain. — Putin

Shift the blame, claim they're doing what you're doing. It's like when Lavrov says "The West" is genocide'ing the Ukrainians, yet it's his military bombing the Ukrainians (ongoingly). Old. The Kremlin ordered the invasion of Ukraine and before that we already know that Russian (military) actors were running some things behind the scenes in Donbas. It's an MO seen elsewhere. There have been quality elections in Ukraine since 2014, and they might have been hard to digest for the Kremlin.

Listen, everyone here is informed, literate people. It’s a good idea, excuse the bad manners, to fool the minds of millions of people who perceive reality from the media. — Putin

Incidentally, a mantra of echo-chamber-maids, yet there are lots of people who check what comes out of freedom-deprived societies, Valdai, and whatever else.

Reports like this have been trickling in for a long time by now from various sources:

Ombudsman: Russia to open military camp for youth in occupied Crimea
^{— Nate Ostiller · The Kyiv Independent via Yahoo · Oct 4, 2023}

Not particularly peace-bound (except for the kind that comes after strife/killing). Gross. Some say it violates international humanitarian law. Would parents want the trajectory for upcoming generations these systematic efforts set out?

'They're just meat': Russia deploys punishment battalions in echo of Stalin
^{— Polina Nikolskaya, Maria Tsvetkova, Christian Lowe, Pravin Char · Reuters · Oct 3, 2023}

Storm-Z Shtrafbats? Wagner mercs are in it for the money; these folks are apparently addicts, riffraff, mentally challenged, ..., "undesirables".

Country borders may be artificial in a sense, like money or whatever conventions.
Yet, what side of a border you live on can matter.
North and South Korea comes to mind, also Finland and Russia, and maybe the recent Mexico → US migrant stories.
Arbitrary or not, there can be stark differences, and they matter to the affected people.

That being said, in a different sense ...

We have not merely been given the world from our parents, we are also borrowing it from our children. — some African proverb I think

Ownership is as fleeting as the lifetime of an owner.

Owning a piece of land won't matter to the owner once they're gone, if you will.
How the living treats each other is more pertinent, and country borders can mark a difference, which can be fairly important if one such country declares ownership of another.
UN resolutions aren't binding I think, however, they can indicate some principled decisions that one can look to.

There seems to be some confusion about trivialities.
Sometimes crayons can help with geography, attached. :)

After the Serb attack on Kosovo police, Stradner wrote:

Putin is opening up a new front against the West
^{— Ivana Stradner · The Telegraph · Sep 30, 2023}

In the face of mounting tensions, Vladimir Putin’s overarching strategic objective is now clear: to dismantle Nato and expose the alliance’s vulnerabilities.

This plan accomplishes three goals: distract the West from Ukraine, strengthen Moscow’s regional standing, and give Putin leverage over Western powers if they want to keep conflict in the region from escalating.

We have repeatedly said before that, according to our forecasts, there will be fatigue in this conflict, growing fatigue in various countries from this completely absurd sponsorship of the Kiev regime, including in the United States. This fatigue will lead to a fragmentation of the political leadership and growth of contradictions. — Dmitry Peskov · Reuters · Oct 2, 2023

I'm noticing some familiar rhetoric coming from Aleksandar Vučić. Hopefully the Balkans won't catch fire, wild- or otherwise. Anyway, the divide and conquer strategy seems evident. Works better if home can be glued together by the likes of strong nationalism, or perhaps an empire-mindset. Is Stradner on point?

Dmitry Medvedev threatens to strike German missile manufacturing plants
^{— Roman Petrenko · Ukrainska Pravda · Oct 1, 2023}

I suppose some would say that the Kremlin and whatever has become "legitimate targets". Who would want to, though? For that matter, ordinarily, why would anyone want to invade Russia? What has Russia in the crosshairs is more like democracy, better transparency, less regression, less oppression, whatever it all is. Maybe that's what's to the (current) Kremlin's disliking? A resolute "rebellion" against a more progressive, open, free, non-irredentist, diverse Russian society?

The war caused the US/German/Turkish/Australian/other military-industrial complex to make a big buck, not vice versa, the US/German/Turkish/Australian/other military-industrial complex didn't cause the war. The Kremlin continues generous bombing throughout (condemned by the UN and the good baker Jones of upper Negombo, Sri Lanka). As far as I know, that military-industrial complex isn't supplying Russia — supply and demand misaligned — but could be wrong. China, Iran, maybe North Korea, on the other hand...

That being said, one might easily enough argue that weapons manufacturing is morally questionable, unless for defense. If only all manufacturing of weaponry made for homicide could be intentionally ended, then we (humans) would have made significant (moral) progress, but it only takes one. Defense depends existentially on offense, and they say that "the best defense is a good offense".

Long sad story. Won't cease or decrease by concessions to land-snacking authoritarians, that systematically indoctrinate a country's children for stark nationalism and war. Crapping on those that aren't cowards or stand up against this crap might be getting a bit too close to complicity for comfort. (Note, Kim Jong Un is taking notes.)

:D Nice photoshop there. Pink, too. Message?

An embarrassing moment for Trudeau and the Canadian government. Trudeau, Zelensky, and the Ministers of parliament gave a standing ovation to a Ukrainian WW2 veteran in the House of Commons. It turns out he was an actual Nazi, fought for the SS in Ukraine and everything. You can’t make this stuff up. — NOS4A2

Embarrassing!

Actually, embarrassment is a good word here, because everyone already knows that Canada isn't ruled by a Nazi regime (or fascist or authoritarian). That won't deter certain parties from using the event as diversion, or to sow mistrust or division, though.

Switzerland and Sweden have a tradition of neutrality, or at least had. Moldova has a constitutional neutrality clause, though sort of impaired by Transnistria. The Baltics have their own stories (2023Jul8).

Similar to what's come up before (2022Mar13, 2022Jul21, 2022Oct8, 2022Nov9), suppose that Ukraine had ... ▸ declared neutrality with respect to international military alliance memberships, formally on paper / constitutionally (2022Mar8, 2022Mar9, 2022Mar11); ▸ retained right to self-defense, e.g. from invaders (shouldn't be controversial), including foreign training and/or weaponry as the case may be; ▸ explicitly stated that others respect sovereignty, self-determination, freedom to seek own path (shouldn't be controversial); ▸ actively pursued EU membership, and perhaps sought other such cooperation ... Something along those lines.

The question is what might we then have expected from the Kremlin. Seems like they covered their bases, but what might have transpired then?

Would be great:

US aims to create nuclear fusion facility within 10 years, Energy chief Granholm says
^{— Stephanie Liechtenstein, Matthew Daly · AP · Sep 25, 2023}

Our goal is to get the cost of clean hydrogen down to 1 dollar per kilogram within one decade. — Jennifer Granholm

Ambitious.

Some US government officials want to leave climate to God:

Congressman Tim Walberg, as per Time · May 31, 2017
Former president spokeswoman Sarah Sanders, as per Raw Story · Jan 22, 2019

Climate change denial in the Trump cabinet: where do his nominees stand?
^{— Mazin Sidahmed · The Guardian · Dec 15, 2016}

Maybe the US needs better voters.

Vyacheslav Volodin dishes out ultimatum:

"Ukraine will accept Moscow's conditions or cease to exist." The Kremlin sends threats ^{(google translate)
— Mikołaj Pietraszewski · Wiadomości Radio ZET · Sep 25, 2023}

I don't think there's much new about this, though.

Tags inside link text terminate the link:


a link with formatted text like so

Room for improvement. :)

A nonsequitur is [...] — Bob Ross

... negation of "follow". (¬(p ⇒ q))

However, there are plenty of sophisticated theological arguments (which are formal) for these religions, such as Christianity — Bob Ross

As already mentioned (except, incidentally point 2 above, again):

(be it simple complex sophisticated renditions) — jorndoe

The kalam cosmological argument is not supposed to prove the Christian God as existing — Bob Ross

Whether supposed to or not, it can't, hence mentioned gap (+ admission). ^{(Aquinas, notes)} There's been threads on the (kalam) cosmological argument before. The veracity/relevance thereof might be a topic in its own right. Feel free to fire one up, if you have something worthwhile.

I just think this “idealized” vs. “elaborate” distinction doesn’t really hold very well. — Bob Ross

So far, it's just an observation (not an argument as such) that you've not really given much reason to dismiss.

If one holds that the representations they have are of mentality and that alive beings are immaterial minds; then the only manner of maintaining an ‘objective’ reality, which has many explanatory benefits, is to posit a universal mind, of which can be labelled as ‘God’. Thusly, God and reality become one. I find this compelling only insofar as I find objective idealism compelling, which, in turn, is predicated off of philosophy of mind (and, more specifically, giving an account of conscious experience). — Bob Ross

You define ‘God’ = "a universal mind" due to Levine's explanatory gap / Chalmers' mind conundrum...? :brow: Either way, I suggest you make a realism versus idealism case in a thread of its own; it's not specifically related to theism. Seems like some comments in the thread are going that way.

Oh, got it. Well, I just didn’t find them convincing for the reasons already stated. — Bob Ross

You find "supernatural magic" a fine explanation...? :confused:

On the Sacred Disease is a work of the Hippocratic Corpus, written about 400 B.C. Its authorship cannot be confirmed, so is regarded as dubious. The treatise is thought to contain one of the first recorded observations of epilepsy in humans. The author explains these phenomena by the flux of the phlegm flowing from the brain into the veins rather than assigning them a divine origin. This turn from a supernatural to a naturalistic explanation is considered a major breakthrough in the history of medicine. — On the Sacred Disease (Wikipedia)

Yep, Christina did bring some good evidence/points to the table.

, it was following up on your chat with , that's the context, focus.

@neomac, in addition to Sergei Poletaev, Putin, Slutsky, Medvedev, Aksyonov, Zakharova, Gurulyov, Zhuravlyov, Zatulin, and some others, have spoken of demilitarization of Ukraine (not just a fifth thereof). Similarly, whoever has spoken of deNazification of Ukraine, change or control of Ukrainian government / Kyiv, and whoever has gone further. (Kremlin-approved officials.) Also Mordvichev.

If Putin's Russia were to assimilate a fifth of Ukraine, then their NATO-phobic argument would continue to apply to the remaining four-fifths of Ukraine just the same. If Putin's Russia was to assimilate all of Ukraine, then Putin's logic could equally be raised vice versa by Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia (Oct 13, 2022; Nov 26, 2022), and hence the EU. Open-ended, perpetual. — Sep 17, 2023

@Tzeentch, what does that...stuff suggest? (in terms of the future?)


^{• Full text: Putin’s declaration of war on Ukraine
• Russia’s Eliminationist Rhetoric Against Ukraine: A Collection}

, so you accuse others of sharing your own sentiment? Odd. :D Oh well.

There is no tiptoeing, there's a very clear objective to weaken Europe [...] — boethius

You changed the subject.

incidentally good news for the Kremlin — Sep 19, 2023

Russia says it sees growing friction between Ukraine and Poland, West
^{— Peter Graff · Reuters · Sep 22, 2023}

We see that there are frictions between Warsaw and Kyiv. We predict that these frictions will increase. As for Poland's weapons, being neighbours with Poland is not the most comfortable for our Belarusian comrades. The country is quite aggressive, does not shun subversive activity and interferes in internal affairs. But we and our Belarusian friends and allies are on alert against the background of potential threats that may come from Poland. — Pesky

I hadn't really expected the Kremlin to target Poland this way, whatever the tactic they're running with. Then again, insidious conspiracy theories come out of those people ← the top official at that.

if Ukrainian former lands is so important, why not send NATO boots on the ground to defend it? — boethius

That's not within NATO's mandate, is it? Others may not have such a charter, though. But, hey, maybe you're right, end the tiptoeing.

can't escalate are you crazy, Russia has nukes — boethius

... seems to often enough be put forth by those saying that Ukraine should capitulate.

He'd be wrong. It was an offensive. Not a counteroffensive, since there was no Russian offensive to counter; that had already ceased months prior. — Tzeentch

Uhm... I guess you don't call the invasion an offensive? It's the offense, what the Ukrainians are working to counter. :D In Putin's words, too.

It's just a buzzword now. It sounds flashy, and flashy sounding language might goad people into supporting senseless waste of human lives. — Tzeentch

Uhm... "counteroffensive" is a flashy-sounding buzzword...? :brow: Weird.

This is mumbo jumbo to me. — Tzeentch

Really? It's really quite easy to understand. :shrug:

Where do you get this stuff?

, there's likely always a bit of vote fraud. No material evidence of what the conspiracy theorists claimed, though.

These candidates lost badly, but now are claiming fraud
^{— Stephen Fowler · NPR · Jul 2, 2022}

My vote to just remain a no isn't based on any evidence. It's not based on any facts, it's only based on my gut feeling and my own intuition, and that's all I need. — Couy Griffin

I've often heard people claim that Trump won the 2020 election or that the election was rigged against him, but I never hear any of the details that convince people why they believe these things. — GRWelsh

They went by, or still go by, the likes of (ordered by timestamp) ...

Despite election results showing Biden win, Pompeo said he expects 'transition to a second Trump administration' (Deirdre Shesgreen · USA TODAY · Nov 10, 2020) — expectations

Press Conference: Election Whistleblowers Come Forward (Amistad Project via PRNewswire · Dec 1, 2020)

Peter Navarro releases 36-page report alleging election fraud 'more than sufficient' to swing victory to Trump (Andrew Mark Miller · Washington Examiner · Dec 17, 2020)

What’s the real evidence for 2020 Election Fraud? (John Berea · winteryknight.com · Jan 18, 2021)

Tucker Carlson Addresses 2020 Election Issues In Fulton County, Georgia (DEEP STATE [2] · Jul 14, 2021 · 6m:59s)

'I Personally Witnessed It': Witness Describes Seeing Voter Fraud To Alex Padilla (Forbes · Jun 9, 2023 · 4m:59s)

Georgia poll workers accused in Trump-backed conspiracy theories cleared of election fraud allegations (Lucien Bruggeman · ABC · Jun 20, 2023) — exonerated

Fish Tank Paradox; a simple explanation of how our elections are rigged using arithmetic. (Edward Solomon · Aug 14, 2023 · 1h:37m:56s)

Some of this stuff is lengthy, tedious, confusing, ambiguous, ... Venture down Alice's proverbial rabbit hole at your own risk.

There has been responses to much of this of course ^{(e.g. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)}, but conspiracy theorists dismiss fact-checkers and whatever else, yet express certainty that the Clown won.

EDIT: my underworld informants slipped me another few sources :)

New "hybrid" voting system can change paper ballot after it's been cast (Salon · Mar 28, 2019)
An Election Security Disaster - Hybrid Voting Machines (Part 1: Dominion vs. The Experts) (Shugah Works · Apr 27, 2019 · 5m:21s)
An Election Security Disaster - Hybrid Voting Machines (Part 2: What's Behind This Deal?) (Shugah Works · Jun 2, 2019 · 6m:55s)
Exclusive: Philadelphia's new voting machines under scrutiny in Tuesday's elections (Reuters · Jun 1, 2020)
Georgia Havoc Raises New Doubts on Pricey Voting Machines (New York Times · Jun 11, 2020)
Laptop, USB drives stolen from Philly election-staging site (AP · Oct 1, 2020)

The sorts of things they went by or still go by

Whatever happened to that offensive, though? — Tzeentch

Tripping minefields?

↪ssu Define what 'Ukraine winning' looks like, and then explain how wasting thousands of lives on ill-advised offensives brings us closer to that end state. — Tzeentch

With a bit of luck, we're not talking an "end state", more like regress or progress, authoritarianism or democracy, etc. Ukraine and the UN have repeatedly said "No" to Putin's regressive Russia, to the bulging-by-land-grab of Putin's authoritarian Russia, etc. Can't have missed it.

Ukraine, Russia and the tense UN encounter that almost happened — but didn’t (Jennifer Peltz · AP · Sep 20, 2023)

You stop the war, and President Zelenskyy will not take the floor. — Edi Rama

(As an aside, Putin admits to Ukraine conducting a COUNTERoffensive, i.e. a response to the invasion by the Kremlin. Different from prior rhetoric, aside from the excuse.)

I'm vaguely reminded of ...

"If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends." (C-SPAN · Sep 22, 2022 · 11m:21s)
Planned walkouts from Russia’s speech and the elephant in the room: Inside the UN General Assembly (Emin Pasha · The Independent · Sep 22, 2022)

Nothing new though. Also, North Korea is worrisome, but maybe there's a bit of (unofficial) tension with the Kremlin?

:chin:

New York attorney general sends cease-and-desist letter to group accused of voter intimidation
^{— Anthony Izaguirre · AP · Sep 21, 2023}

non sequiturs [...] follow [...] therefore — Bob Ross

... are examples of deduction.

By “elaborate”, it seems (from your OP) that you are referring to laymen’s beliefs about God. — Bob Ross

Not exactly, no. We're talking what the Pope, priests, gurus, imams, pujas, etc promote (be it simple complex sophisticated renditions), the Avestan Ahura Mazda, the Vedic Shiva, the Biblical Yahweh, the Quranic Allah, etc, the currently prevalent, elaborate religious faiths, often mutually incompatible (as mentioned), what people out there actually believe and sometimes practise:

(typically involving lengthy stories, religious texts, divine intervention/participation, personal/divine revelations, personal deities, rituals, commands/rules, fate designations) — jorndoe

^{(link, link, link, IEP, SEP)} — jorndoe

By “idealized”, it seems to me that you are referring to formal theological arguments for God, is that correct? — Bob Ross

Maybe. I'd call them definitions, e.g. G is defined as a supposed 1^st cause (like Aquinas did), or "super-designer", or ... As to the mentioned gap, the kalam/cosmological argument, for example, does not derive the Biblical Yahweh, cannot particularly differentiate those "historicized" deities or "the unknown" for that matter (incidentally admitted by one of the foremost promoters of that argument). I suppose that's a characteristic of the "idealized" category, though "definitions" is a better word. (How would one go about practising religious faith in a supposed 1^st cause or "super-designer" anyway? Those apologetics don't derive the 10 commandments or Sun-prayer or much of anything.)

predicated off of idealism. — Bob Ross

There's been realism versus idealism threads before. Maybe it's time for another. Hit it, if you have something good, it's one of those things the forum is about. Roughly 4/5 contemporary philosophers go with realism. ^{2009, 2020} A topic in its own right, all the way back to Plato ... (Descartes) ... Berkeley ...

they are personifying God, which obviously makes no sense. — Bob Ross

I guess your take is more or less at odds with the entire elaborate category above? If my bare guess holds up, you'd have something in common with a few atheists:

I'm guessing atheism primarily is concerned with the former (elaborate), and agnosticism more found in the context of the latter (idealized) — both of which could be held by one person, and thus need clarification. — jorndoe

Sort of. Bad arguments for God, or simply ill-thought out metaphysical explanations of the world [...] — Bob Ross

Those mentioned above aren't arguments, just poor explanations. Some reasons were listed.

Hurricane Sally roamed about in Sep 2020.

3 years after Hurricane Sally, Pensacola is still struggling to rebuild
^{— Julia Jacobo, David Miller · ABC · Sep 18, 2023}

Now, even run-of-the-mill rainstorms are causing regular flooding in the city.

Residents are striving to stay in their water-damaged homes, while community planners are tasked with fortifying the city from future flooding -- not just from powerful hurricanes, but from everyday rainstorms that are now causing more nuisance flooding than in years past.

But the damage from Hurricane Sally, and the flooding that continues with the regular rainstorms in the years that have followed, threaten to throw her out of the historic home where she has lived since 2016.

More frequent hurricanes wreaking havoc is one thing, increasing flooding + water levels another.
I guess it depends on tides, the Moon, ocean currents, what-have-you — with more liquid water in circulation, some areas will see more flooding.

Some may find this a worthwhile read ...

Inside the Next Republican Revolution
^{— Michael Hirsh · POLITICO · Sep 19, 2023}

This land is your land, this federal government is your federal government. It’s not just the sole province of people in the metro D.C. area. Within 350 million Americans we can find genuine, intelligent, straightforward politicians to move things forward. — corrected Paul Dans quote

⁽²⁾ This just simply doesn’t entail that God doesn’t exist: it entails, if granted as true, that ‘world religions’ are false. Seems like a non sequitur to me. — Bob Ross

⁽⁵⁾ Again, this doesn’t entail God doesn’t exist. If someone were to argue that God exists because they were taught that traditionally by their family, then that is a bad argument for God’s existence. — Bob Ross

I didn't read those as deductive, but as evidence in support of the case. Though, I could of course have misread Christina.

That being said, these observations (evidence) can draw attention to the point in the opening post regarding elaborate versus idealized. God/god and religious faith can mean any number of things ^{(link, link, link, IEP, SEP)}, with varying responses. Regarding the elaborate, prevalent category:

It becomes difficult to see the point of a proof of God's existence when it is construed as a proof of an individual's existence. Does one use arguments to become acquainted with an individual? Either that individual exists or it doesn't, and experience alone can tell us which. The project of a proof of God's existence thus ironically comes to appear meaningless to contemporary philosophers of religion. — Theism and Atheism: Opposing Arguments In Philosophy (2019), Joseph Koterski, Graham Oppy

⁽¹⁾ I find that these terms are regularly deployed in vague and superficial manners, where either can be used to consistently and coherently explain reality: it just depends on how loose or precise the definitions are of them. — Bob Ross

I find "supernatural magic" and "G did it" to be non-explanations ^{(previously ... Nov 9, 2022 ... Jun 4, 2022)}. They could (literally) be raised to explain anything, and therefore explain nothing. When did such an explanation ever do away with ignorance/errors? Not themselves explicable, cannot readily be exemplified (verified), do not derive anything differentiable in particular, ... Replacing with "don't know" does not incur informative loss; not replacing is a termination along such lines of inquiry, a proliferation of ignorance.

Difficulties for Ukraine, division, incidentally good news for the Kremlin:

'Just can't sell': Ukraine harvests sunflowers as war blocks ports
^{— France 24 / AFP · Sep 18, 2023}
Ukraine says it will sue Poland, Hungary and Slovakia over food import bans
^{— Tom Balmforth, Pavel Polityuk, Anna Wlodarczuk-Semczuk, Anna Pruchnicka, Timothy Heritage · Reuters · Sep 18, 2023}
Farmers across Bulgaria protest against Ukrainian grain as EU divide grows
^{— Valentina Petrova, Stephen McGrath · AP · Sep 18, 2023}

Meanwhile, the regress continues in Russia:

Human rights in Russia have 'significantly deteriorated' since war - UN expert
^{— Emma Farge, Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Rachel More, Gareth Jones · Reuters · Sep 18, 2023}
Human rights in Russia have ‘significantly’ worsened since Ukraine war began, UN-backed expert says
^{— AP · Sep 18, 2023}

:chin: well, not unheard of, part of a modus operandi ...

A sneaky move at a Kremlin meeting may show why Putin took his time in eliminating Prigozhin
^{— Paul Iddon · Business Insider · Sep 17, 2023}