Putin’s War Against Ukraine: The End of The Beginning
^{— Eugene Rumer · Carnegie · Feb 17, 2023}

Russia was favored to win quickly. A year later, he is betting on the opposite—to wage a long war against Ukraine, exploiting the advantages that Russia’s size, resilient economy, and relative security from retaliation afford him. Victory on the battlefield has proved elusive. A counteroffensive in Donbas, combined with the ongoing campaign of terror against Ukrainian cities and towns and destruction of the country’s infrastructure, is his next best options.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 24 February 2023
^{— Ministry of Defence UK · Feb 24, 2023}

In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again. Its campaign now likely primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing substantial new territory.
The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia’s advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.

So Russia's strategy is that a sufficient supply of bodies (Russian bodies) will eventually exhaust Ukraine's supply of shells. :sad: — Sir Balthazar Wobbly · Feb 24, 2023

CIA director William Burns on "Face the Nation"
^{— Margaret Brennan · CBS News · Feb 26, 2023}

At some point, he's going to have to face up to increasing costs as well, in coffins coming home to some of the poorest parts of Russia because many of the conscripts, you know, who are being thrown as cannon fodder in the front and the Donbas as well, come from Dagestan and Buryatia, the poorest parts of Russia as well.

Merc head Prigozhin is apparently unhappy (also Feb 28, 2023) ...
Wagner chief warns of collapse of Russian front line if there is retreat from Bakhmut
^{— Lauren Sforza · The Hill · Mar 6, 2023}
Potentially being "set up"...? A ruse...?

Seems a stretch that the current situation was Putin's plan all along. (?)


On another note, Mearsheimer or Yudin? A bit of both?
It’s not NATO — Putin always has had expansionist designs
^{— Alexander J Motyl · The Hill · Mar 6, 2023}

Slovakia basks under NATO umbrella, sends Ukraine old arms
^{— Karel Janicek · AP News · Mar 1, 2023}

Not really surprising I suppose.

The report has takeaways.

Slovakia is a Ukraine neighbor and has been "invaded" by NATO forces :smile: that don't otherwise interfere in political processes or daily lives or whatever. The Slovaks don't consider NATO a security threat. They seem to be (and have been) doing relatively/reasonably well as far as the regular Jane and John Slovak goes. Go figure.

^{(you may contrast with other/parallel developments like ... Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Mar 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, W ... anyway, much has been posted in the thread prior)}

They're looking into sending some old "unwieldy" gear to the Ukrainians except keeping one of them as a museum piece. I guess the protection is what the Ukrainians (once) hoped for, which isn't something the UN can do.

, maybe. I was admittedly being a bit facetious. :)
Don't think it's that simple, and don't know exactly what has been seized from who and why.
Putin does have supporters among those people though, and others that aren't so supportive.

EU seeks to use frozen Russian funds to rebuild Ukraine
^{— Terje Solsvik, Essi Lehto, Niklas Pollard, Sandra Maler · Reuters · Feb 14, 2023}
There's an idea. — Feb 14, 2023

Dozens of sanctioned superyachts seized from Russian oligarchs still hang in limbo, racking up millions in maintenance
^{— Grace Kay, Sam Tabahriti · Business Insider · Mar 4, 2023}

Auction them off, put money into fund for Ukraine. :)

A look into what Jane and John Russian get on national TV, Russia-1:
via Julia Davis of Russian Media Monitor (Mar 2, 2023 · 9m:38s)

Taken together with Lavrov's statements (and others) a story is told.

If [t]he US bombed Nord Stream [...] — Tzeentch

How many of Russia's presently available forces are deployed/involved in Putin's war in Ukraine (perhaps with/out mercs, un/trained, respectively)? (, others)

Tearful scenes and protest as mobilization gets underway in Russia
^{— Simone McCarthy, Matthew Chance, Tim Lister, Anna Chernova, Mick Krever, et al · CNN · Sep 23, 2022}
Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine
^{— Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch · Foreign Policy · Sep 28, 2022}
Russia’s Reindeer Brigade Is Fighting For Its Survival In Southern Ukraine
^{— David Axe · Forbes · Oct 7, 2022}
Russia sends St. Petersburg riot police to Mariupol to stop new protests
^{— Daniel Stewart · News 360 · Dec 16, 2022}

but now Putin's Russia is busy elsewhere (Ukraine), and apparently neglecting the alliance — Jan 11, 2023

Russia says little about its soldiers dying, so an open-source team is trying to keep track
^{— Briar Stewart et al · CBC News · Mar 4, 2023}
2022 Russian mobilization
^{— Wikipedia}

Who knows, maybe Prigozhin made Putin some verbal promises to the effect of saving some troubles involved in larger (unpopular) mobilization/conscription? (you know how it is among gangsters, better keep your word, or else...)

A summary of the attack in Russia's southern Bryansk (sources included):

Vladimir Putin: Latest conflict could be sign that 'Russians will begin to wake up', official claims
^{— Ali Postma · Ohmymag UK · Mar 3, 2023}

The attack itself seems a bit odd. Some anti-Putin Russians in Ukraine got together and went posturing without going after anything of much importance in Russia. Just to show they can or something? Not much of a political rally, either. A probe maybe? And Putin's reaction is rather overshadowed by his efforts in Ukraine. There's not really any comparison, though I suppose emphasizing the attack can provide a distraction.

Top Russian official's remark about Ukraine war draws laughter — neomac

Yep, which also echoes Boris Bondarev's comments about "degradation".

Crowd erupts in laughter at Russia's top diplomat after he claimed the Ukraine war 'was launched against us'
^{— Rebecca Cohen, John Haltiwanger · Business Insider India · Mar 4, 2023}

What's up with Lavrov? Lying? Following the script? Bullshitting? Propagandizing? Expressing his belief?

Anyone can speculate on what goes on in Putin's head.
Maybe he got pissed off that the Ukrainians took a different path, went their own way, independent of and diverging from his Russia... Betraying traitors!
And, adding insult to injury, those evil damn Westerners, intruding with their democracy, "progressiveness", homosexuals, and McDonald's... Fuckers!

Zygar writes that Putin ‘flew into a rage’ and warned that ‘if Ukraine joins NATO it will do so without Crimea and the eastern regions. It will simply fall apart’ (Zygar 2016, 153–154). — Rajan Menon, William Ruger · 2020

Putin threw a fit like a petulant little child and decided to no longer play the game he was losing...so you now have violence and war. — Sooner5030 · Mar 10, 2022

What more does a guy need? :)

, what you keep missing is that there are assessments here of what Putin + team want others to hear, whether true/false/bullshit, each of which can be found.

Industrialized land grab (and then some):

Moscow Reportedly Threatened New Parents in Ukraine: Register Your Newborns as Russian or Else
^{— Tony Spitz · Veuer/Flipboard · Mar 3, 2023}
Ukrainians say they were pressured to register babies as Russian during occupation
^{— Rod Nickel, Leonardo Benassatto · Reuters · Mar 3, 2023}

"There is no Ukraine, only Russia." — Mar 2, 2023

(partial repeat...)

Some of these sanctions-defying oddities are old-fashioned greed, others are features (or incidental side-effects) of larger interwoven economies/markets, others still could be ideologically motivated yet this seems rare or covert.

Stop funding Russia’s nuclear weapons
^{— Henry Sokolski · The Hill · Nov 13, 2022}
Exclusive: The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones
^{— Stephen Grey, Maurice Tamman, Maria Zholobova · Reuters · Dec 15, 2022}
CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies
^{— Natasha Bertrand · CNN · Jan 4, 2023}
Two Americans arrested in alleged scheme to supply Russia with aviation equipment
^{— Julia Mueller · The Hill · Mar 2, 2023}

Also makes you wonder about proliferation of nuclear arms components, though fortunately under tighter restrictions.

, then there's a land corridor connecting Crimea and Russia (Kerch is a bit skimpy), and perhaps connecting Transnistria, all of Ukraine being the "best" outcome, right? And, just as importantly, hanging onto it. All (seen as) up'ing Russia's power position. Others might get in the way of such plans/aspirations (the Ukrainians certainly are). Crimea seems to have some importance to the Kremlin. And Sevastopol hosts their Black Sea fleet.

I doubt it's geo-political-military type dominance exclusively, though. The grain incidents in the summer showed the comprehensive market share of Ukraine for all to see. Now sweep all of that (on a national level) under the Kremlin. Control and profit from "The Breadbasket of Europe". Europe's largest nuclear plant is north of Kherson south of Zaporizhzhia, various other industries, ... Might look good on Putin if he managed to assimilate that stuff. Bonus.

Sometimes the invaders have been kind of extensive in activities (for lack of a better word). While still occupying Kherson, they emptied out the art gallery/museum there. The admin kept working there when allowed to by the soldiers. Pretty much empty now. One might hope they moved the art stuff out of the way of their upcoming shelling, right? But who knows, they didn't say, there's no paperwork, heck no piles of them having burnt it all, the stuff's in the wind. "There is no Ukraine, only Russia."

Anyway, ssu probably has more/better insights than me.

EDITED

, I think Mearsheimer argued that the Kremlin decided Crimea is important enough for a Russian power position to grab. Maybe that's just part of it. Anyway, never mind me, carry on.

Shit! (apologies if my French is off)

Today a god has arrived in our galaxy!
You know, an all-powerful and infinitely good being...
"But!?! It smells like..."
"I'm covered in..."
"260 tons of shit in the silos at this base..."
It was a dream... The nightmare is when you wake up...
:D (absurdity of (industrialized) human killing)

André Franquin
Idées noires
1977-1984

So you're just going to support the US efforts to stoke the fires? — Tzeentch

Hmm Skipping it is, then. There are a few "fire-stokers" including the US, much to Prigozhin's dismay; there's also one fire-ender (skipped). Not that it matters much, as it stands I will run with the UN:

Reasonably clear (repeated) messages:
• UN 68/262 (Mar 27, 2014)
• UN 2623 (Feb 27, 2022)
• UN ES-11/5 (Nov 14, 2022)
• UN (Feb 23, 2023) — earlier comment

, as far as I know, the "weaken Russia" aim dates to the Cold War; original/declassified documents would be nifty to take a glance at, though it doesn't really seem to have been much of a secret. In this case, there's a "strengthen Russia" aim, except at Ukraine's expense.

Reasonably clear (repeated) messages:
• UN 68/262 (Mar 27, 2014)
• UN 2623 (Feb 27, 2022)
• UN ES-11/5 (Nov 14, 2022)
• UN (Feb 23, 2023)

Russia was always "strong" though, certainly "stronger" than most peer states, heck by size/resources alone. Russia isn't doomed to destruction without Ukraine (or Transnistria for that matter), but "weaker" than it would be if having assimilated others, which I suppose holds for such takeovers.

And other screens perchance? :D

At this rate we can soon hear from Russian screens that it was USA and NATO that attacked Ukraine, not Russia. — Anton Gerashchenko (Oct 26, 2022)

FYI, how things are done in Moscow, reported by different sources, Yevgeny Prigozhin complains about his mercs not getting enough ammo from the Russian army to kill Ukrainians:

I’m unable to solve this problem despite all my connections and contacts. Those who interfere with us trying to win this war are absolutely, directly working for the enemy. — Prigozhin (Al Jazeera, Feb 20, 2023)

The chief of general staff and the defence minister give out orders left and right not only to not give ammunition to PMC Wagner, but also to not help it with air transport. There is just direct opposition going on, which is nothing less than an attempt to destroy Wagner. This can be equated to high treason. — Prigozhin (France 24, Feb 21, 2023)

They didn’t give us ammunition, and they still don't. It’s now 10 o'clock in the morning on 22 February. No steps have been taken to issue ammunition. What’s the problem? I will explain. I’m posting a photo below. This is one of the gathering places of the dead. These are the guys who died yesterday because of the so-called shell famine. There should have been five times fewer of them. — Prigozhin (Ukrainska Pravda, Feb 22, 2023)

So far, it's all on paper but, so we have been told, the principal documents have already been signed. I would like to thank all those who helped us do this. You saved hundreds, maybe thousands of lives of guys who are defending their homeland, gave them a chance to move on with their lives. — Prigozhin (Reuters, Feb 23, 2023)

There's a bit more commentary in the reports.

Meanwhile in Germany ...

Thousands protest in Berlin against giving weapons to Ukraine
^{— Kate Connolly · The Guardian · Feb 25, 2023}

Don't see much of those in Moscow (any more). The report has broader commentary.

when if the US bombed Nord Stream — Tzeentch

:brow:

the Germans' servile attitude beyond shameful, and as indicative of the relationship between the US and Europe - one of vassalage [...] European political leaders are servants of the American agenda — Tzeentch

We might say ...

riddled with babbling bureaucracy thumb-twiddling impotence sitting-on-hands — Dec 7, 2022

NATO has also helped dull national attention to defense — Jan 13, 2023

By the way, I can think of some that would like the US going all isolation and NATO closing up shop. Can't tell if that's what you're suggesting here; is it?

lot of war trumpeting — Tzeentch

Hmm Are you deliberately skipping who's doing the warring here, continuing the ...

Invasion/attacks multipronged, like conventional (e.g. artillery), intimidation/terrorism-like (bombing throughout, building instability, insurgency), cultural (e.g. re-enculturation, suppression), political (e.g. narrative-hijacking, annexations by fakery, land grab, propaganda) — Jan 10, 2023

...? Ain't Germany ...

, sorry, late response. I think Putin nuking, say, Kyiv over southeastern Ukraine is unrealistic. And Sudzha for that matter.

Moldova is a small blotch on Putin's map, except not white+blue+red enough.

Besides, Putin's Russia pushing up against Moldova looks great on a map; Transnistria is already in the process of being "converted" (vaguely similar to Donbas). — May 9, 2022

«We, Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia, can't have weapons of mass destruction pointed our way sitting on our doorstep. Should actions toward that come to pass, we'd have to take counter-measures. And in case of threats from non-democratic regimes, more decisive measures.» — Oct 13, 2022

Opinion: Moldova isn’t on the front page, but it could be in Putin’s crosshairs
^{— Cristian Gherasim · CNN · Feb 15, 2023} — Feb 16, 2023

Moldova president accuses Russia of plotting to oust pro-EU government
^{— Jennifer Rankin · The Guardian · Feb 13, 2023}
Decree on measures to implement the foreign policy course is declared invalid (Russian)
^{— The Kremlin · Feb 21, 2023}
Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of February 21, 2023 No. 111 / On recognizing as invalid the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 605 / On measures to implement the foreign policy of the Russian Federation (Russian)
^{— Official Internet portal of legal information · Kremlin · Feb 21, 2023}
Putin cancels decree underpinning Moldova's sovereignty in separatist conflict
^{— Alexander Tanas · Reuters · Feb 21, 2023}
The World Has Gotten a Little More Dangerous
^{— Daniel McIntosh · Medium · Feb 23, 2023}

Ends when Putin says so or is compelled to? Doesn't?

Kremlin's Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation:

Putin signs decree establishing Presidential directorate for cross-border cooperation
^{— TASS · Oct 2, 2018}

At the time, Oleg Govorun was the head poncho, nowadays Alexey Filatov is (hierarchy → Dmitry Kozak → Putin). There's a bit about Filatov here (en), here (en), here (en), here (en) if anyone cares.

In 2021, their main targets switched from Georgia more to Moldova, the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine.

The "cooperation" part is a front, does not really involve working with corresponding agencies in those other countries. Some say they assess geo-political-military aims, plan covert insurgencies, political influence, applied intelligence, things like that.

Either way, looking into their role might be interesting for the so inclined. "There be dragons."

Not going to link Putin's Feb 21 speech here ...

Putin is not really saying anything new, but all these old ideas are being put forward in a much more radical form. — Tatiana Stanovaya

... It's largely the trite old bullshit (in the technical sense) anyway.

«...; Nazis; we want peace; dire existential threat to Russia; "the West" is to blame for it all; Ukraine is Russian; they hate us; homosexuals begone; ...»

I am grateful to the [...] journalists, primarily war correspondents, that are risking their lives to tell the truth to the world — Putin (Feb 21, 2023)

Per earlier comments, where are the foreign/independent reports with the invading forces? I'd like to see some anyway, the more the better. Other journalists are already showing the truth to the world. As to "the teachers", "cultural figures", "pastors", ... We've seen the organized systematic (re)enculturation and oppression efforts; kind of sinister. Putin may have picked up how to speak to (some) religious folk from US politics, how to make them nod in agreement, or enough of them. It's not difficult to find people speaking Kremlin outside of Russia, it's more difficult to find people speaking non-Kremlin in Russia.

We also recall the Kiev regime’s vain attempts to obtain nuclear weapons — Putin (Feb 21, 2023)

By 2001 all nuclear weapons in Ukraine had been handed over to Russia; maybe they should have kept them so as to better keep land grabbers at bay? Meanwhile, another Russian neighbor is increasingly becoming a (nuclear) threat.

Putin's war efforts in Ukraine continue to create haters. Putin using it as a justification isn't really the best. He's the primary threat to Russia(ns). That's what others have to deal with / respond to. Kim Jong-un might learn/follow depending on what happens. And Moldovans are getting higher blood pressure.

:D As an aside, on Mar 21, 2022:



↑ Source (Jun 30, 2022)

Peace parties:

• the landlord says they want peace but without the land-grabbery
• the invaders (and destroyers) say they want peace but with the land-grabbery

And:

• the UN said no land-grabbery (explicitly)
• the attackers said it goes beyond that land (well, among a few other things)
• the attacks/destruction continue to create hate + distrust among the defenders
• (Kim Jong-un, are you taking notes?)

How can some productive progress be made?
A wretched situation; heck, for that matter, southeastern Ukraine could be administered independently by the UN for the time being if peace was what everyone wanted.

, I was more thinking of the logical problem with the self-reference, or potential problem.

You're crafting a model ("map") of yourself (the "territory"). The model would then contain itself (if understood), and so on. Structurally, the model might start looking fractal-alike or something. Well, infinitudes here and there anyway. Don't know if that's a problem; is it? Either way, there seems to be an implied introspection horizon.

Arguably, Iran is technically in a proxy war against Ukraine, yet saying so is kind of misleading (incidentally, analogous to some comments hereabouts). — Feb 13, 2023

Putin's Russia, Khamenei's Iran, potentially China ...

Moscow is not alone: Much has changed since invasion of Ukraine
^{— Jonathan Spyer · The Jerusalem Post · Jan 24, 2023}

Will China start a "proxy war" against Ukraine?

On another note, I'm seeing some wariness out there that Kim Jong-un is taking notes.
"Whatever happens in Ukraine ain't staying in Ukraine."

FYI, foreign/independent journalists reporting on the ground:

What the Russians left behind when they fled Kherson
^{— CBC News: The National · Feb 23, 2023 · 9m:58s}

The original report ↑ has been locked down on youtube, a shorter version can be found here:

What the Russians left behind when they fled Kherson
^{— CBC News · Feb 23, 2023 · 8m:55s}

How Russia's invasion turned Ukrainian residents into resistance members
^{— Richard Engel, Gabe Joselow, Michael Fiorentino · NBC News · Feb 24, 2023}

I wouldn't mind similar reports with the invaders.

(continuing a line of evidence ...)

Dozens detained by Russian police on Ukraine war anniversary - rights centre
^{— Caleb Davis, Mark Trevelyan · Reuters · Feb 24, 2023}

Cleaning pays:

JWST is better than anyone expected — here’s why
^{— Ethan Siegel · Big Think · Jan 23, 2023}

, it's not so much refusal, as it is that no one is blaming the Dutch! (imdb)

Anyway, didn't the thread already establish that "Everyone is bad"? If we're to spread blame, then maybe figure out where to place the blame first and foremost, or by rank, weight, score, whatever?
I have some impression of where the victims would primarily place blame. And the (other) main actor ...

It’s not Ukraine that is fighting Russia, but rather it is a collective West. All decorum is set aside, and the goal is to inflict strategic defeat on my country. The US thinks the planet is their turf. — Vasily Nebenzya (Feb 22, 2023)

The West aspires to strategically defeat Russia, dismember and destroy it [...] the West has been and is turning a blind eye to the revival of neo-Nazism and the glorification of Nazi criminals in Ukraine — Vasily Nebenzya (Feb 23, 2023)

... (i.e. an old repeat of the others on Putin's team, and incidentally also some in this thread in part).

As an aside, anti-US / pro-Putin type sentiments aren't as rare as some suggest. At least, in my adventures, they've been common enough.

Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus
^{— Michael Weiss, Holger Roonemaa · Yahoo · Feb 20, 2023}
Will sich der Kreml Belarus einverleiben? (en)
^{— Florian Flade, Lea Frey, Manuel Bewarder · ARD/tagesschau · Feb 21, 2023}
Leaked Russian document shows how Putin plans to annex ally Belarus by 2030
^{— Sinéad Baker · Business Insider · Feb 21, 2023}

Make of it what you will, it does fit a pattern (posted in some detail in the thread prior). I thought Belarus was already more or less under Putin, though...?

Russia’s Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland’s borders
^{— Al Jazeera · Feb 24, 2023}

:D Medvedev is known to make ridiculous statements, though a Russian official, chairman of their Security Council.

, observation, as the case may (or may not) be:
The forum has a (noticeably) different distribution than the world of academic philosophers in general.
If so, then how come?
Either way, I'm not going to pretend to speak on @Banno's behalf.

Again, this to me, is committing the bandwagon fallacy, and now you are showing more evidence of (or reiterating it rather), not countering that. — schopenhauer1

I think @Banno could make the observation without arguing/committing either way (but probably won't :grin:). Doesn't the observation stand on its own?

Two different directions:

the leap from the mental process to a somatic innervation — hysterical conversion — which can never be fully comprehensible to us — Sigmund Freud (Notes Upon a Case of Obsessional Neurosis)

the puzzling leap from the mental to the physical — Sigmund Freud (Introduction to Psychoanalysis)

412. The feeling of an unbridgeable gulf between consciousness and brain-process: how does it come about that this does not come into the consideration of our ordinary life? This idea of a difference in kind is accompanied by slight giddiness — which occurs when we are performing a piece of logical slight-of-hand. (The same giddiness attacks us when we think of certain theorems in set theory.) When does this feeling occur in the present case? It is when I, for example, turn my attention in a particular way on to my own consciousness, and, astonished, say to myself: THIS is supposed to be produced by a process in the brain! — as it were clutching my forehead. — Ludwig Wittgenstein (Philosophical Investigations, Part I)

The two were contemporaries for half a century, apparently with fairly different approaches.

Me personally, ...? I'm rather inconsequential, irrelevant, insignificant.

My general sense is that you don't seem to take the Russian perception Putin's claims of NATO as a security threat very seriously. — Tzeentch

I couldn't say exactly, but seriously enough I suppose, though not just (supposed) NATO-phobia, as per ↑ the thread. Back to this comment, this, this, ... (repeats). :/
In the same round, would Putin risk Russia over southeast Ukraine (perhaps by unleashing the nukes)...? Don't know, but I'd be surprised if Jane and Joe Russian would. Unfortunately, we can't free (their access) and ask them.

EDIT:

The UN isn't quite as inconsequential irrelevant insignificant as me. I don't know if anyone thinks they're a bunch of airheads, but here's a report from their assembly today (Feb 22, 2023) on the topic. The message is clear enough.

What's your (anyone's) take?

YouTube versus Seymour Hersh aside, this bit ...

Let me pass on his tale and then make the connection with Hersh’s exposé of the Biden regime’s Nord Stream op and the other cases I have mentioned. — Patrick Lawrence (Feb 20, 2023)

... isn't quite where Lawrence says.

No conclusive evidence Russia is behind Nord Stream attack
^{— Shane Harris, John Hudson, Missy Ryan, Michael Birnbaum, Souad Mekhennet, Meg Kelly · The Washington Post · Dec 21, 2022}

The Nord Stream incident is less clear, which kind of makes it more interesting. (I'm still not quite convinced the saboteur(s) must be a state actor, for that matter.) Puzzle... — Feb 21, 2023

Anyway, censorship being bad might be another reason the Ukrainians aren't into being ruled by the GKremlin?

, well, what they say (others on Putin's team as well) is what they want everyone to hear, including Jane and Joe Russian. They've talked about doom and destruction, a dire existential threat to Russia(ns). All the while doing a fair bit of that to Ukraine (Ukrainians) I might add. Their verbiage is distinctly political, often enough sufficiently vague/suggestive, with scattered fear-mongering, calls for hard nationalism, ... They'd be poor authoritarians otherwise. :)
(Incidentally, Brzezinski and whoever else confirm that Putin wants to assimilate Ukraine out of power aspirations.)

Anyway, wherewhen have we seen such moves before?

In May 2022, Bondarev wrote:

Minister Lavrov is a good illustration of the degradation of this system. In 18 years, he went from a professional and educated intellectual, whom many colleagues held in such high esteem, to a person who constantly broadcasts conflicting statements and threatens the world (that is, Russia too) with nuclear weapons!
Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred. — Boris Bondarev's resignation letter

Despite all their shortcomings, maybe Navalny and others ought to be allowed voices and participation, talk with Jane and Joe Russian, and in reasonable safety? Hopefully, no one suggests gagging Chomsky (or worse) similarly. :)

Meyn opines:

What Putin’s speech reveals about his plans in Ukraine
^{— Colin Meyn · The Hill · Feb 21, 2023}

• Putin (paraphrased): The West is out to destroy Russia. It's a matter of life and death.
• Most others (including peace-mongers and diplomats): Huh?
• Zelenskyy (paraphrased): Hey hey I'm over here *finger*snap*, could you tell your soldiers to go home and leave us be already? Look over there *pointing*, we have rebuilding to do.

A couple or so continents are being accused of conspiring to destroy Russia.
Have to wonder how much of this was already in Putin's plan-decision-graph.

EDIT:

They intend to transform a local conflict into a phase of global confrontation. This is exactly how we understand it all and we will react accordingly, because in this case we are talking about the existence of our country. — Putin (Feb 21, 2023)

Notice how the rhetoric could be employed to justify whatever (including if Ukraine was to hand over their south + east). After all, it's about a couple or so continents conspiring to destroy Russia. And "accordingly"...

I don't see how. Pretty much all of Russia's actions so far which cannot be denied (the war itself, the sham referenda, the annexing, the bombing, the inhumanity...) are indicators of a ruthless country invading a neighbour. No one is disputing that simple fact. The dispute is over the question of why they invaded, and (more importantly) how best to bring the invasion to an end. — Isaac

Nah, I was commenting on Russia "influencing" Ukraine. Earlier covertly, insurgence'ly, all that, then when that started looking less and less promising, invasion. "Influence." Ruthless ✓, Machiavellian ✓, ... Now (theatrical) war-rallying at home ^{(The Telegraph, Newsweek)}. (Hmm Gotta' wonder what Putin would do with all that in case the diplomats came through with something...)

Also a considerable chunk of your 'evidence' comes directly from the US government or Ukrainian government sources. — Isaac

Yet not all. Trails of (independent) evidence paint a picture and also suggests modus operandi, fingerprints, tell-tale tracks. The shamming, organized re-enculturation efforts, subversion (mentioned in the thread prior) are also parts thereof. And Girkin turned into an Achilles heel of deniability.

You can't seriously expect me to take those sources seriously in the circumstances. — Isaac

(Hmm poisoning the wells (plural)?)
Grabbing Crimea and eastern "insurgence" (followed by "annexation") are fairly hands-on type pieces of evidence, but a bit harder to hide/deny. :)
^{Feb 2014, Apr 2014, Nov 2014, Sep 2017, Jun 2018, Feb 2019, Sep 2022, Nov 2022}

The Nord Stream incident is less clear, which kind of makes it more interesting. (I'm still not quite convinced the saboteur(s) must be a state actor, for that matter.) Puzzle...

No need to go all zealous. :)

"Scientists want you to know that most balloons come in peace. They're used for experiments to look at everything from cosmic rays to the ozone layer."

Researchers watch and worry as balloons are blasted from the sky
^{— Geoff Brumfiel · NPR · Feb 21, 2023}

balloon researchers are careful to follow airspace and other government regulations, our research balloons carry no surveillance capability, and safety is always a primary concern — Joan Alexander

This other side of the story, the useful, practical ballooning that helps students, helps technology and our better understanding of the Universe, really needs to get out there — Gregory Guzik

The spying/security aspect isn't going away, though.

Apparently, some Russian military folk lament Biden visiting that "Russian territory" before Putin. :D

Almost a year after the beginning of the NWO, we were waiting in the Russian city of Kyiv for the president of the Russian Federation, and not the United States. — Notes of midshipman Ptichkin (Feb 20, 2023)

Hmm Could Putin stride about Moscow, Biden stride about Washington? Maybe, maybe not...
With the media shutdown/control in Russia, I wonder how much general access/information those military folk have.

On another note...

Russia targets Netherlands' North Sea infrastructure, says Dutch intelligence agency
^{— Anthony Deutsch, Bart Meijer, Hugh Lawson, Susan Fenton · Reuters · Feb 20, 2023}

Not really all that surprising.

I guess everyone has different aspirations...

Chechnya's Kadyrov: one day I plan my own mercenary group
^{— Caleb Davis, Guy Faulconbridge · Reuters · Feb 19, 2023}

When my service to the state is completed, I seriously plan to compete with our dear brother Yevgeny Prigozhin and create a private military company. I think it will all work out. — Ramzan Kadyrov

As far as I can tell, there isn't a significant number of Chechens shooting in Ukraine, though they have been and are present. Kadyrov was among them around 2014. Most are doing the GKremlin's bidding.

• Chechen involvement in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Wikipedia)
• Kadyrovites » Ukraine (Wikipedia)

What about drones?
Some legislation has been put in place, though I don't recall the exact details here (I've had a small drone with camera from before they started getting legal attention).
For example, you're not allowed to head out to the airport and start flying your drone around. :)
I imagine balloons have been subject to legislation longer.

Russia blocks access to The Bell news website
^{— Caleb Davis, Guy Faulconbridge · Reuters · Feb 19, 2023}

Rights groups say Russia is trying to control the entire media landscape by blocking independent news outlets, stopping their reporting on the war from reaching ordinary Russians.

Some degree of media control is expected when waging war I s'pose; theirs went overboard some time ago though. :/ "Foreign agents" has become a go-to allegation and judicial process has gone down the drain.