missile bases closer to Russia — boethius

Like these (Oct 16, 2022)?

Russia can completely destroy Ukraine with nuclear weapons on a few minutes notice. Is that a good thing? Obviously not. But they can and it's just reality we have to deal with. — boethius

If they could, then they could level Poland, Finland, Moldova, Belarus, Slovakia, or ..., just the same. Perhaps the UK, though the distance is greater (they have mentioned/joked so, too). This is an open-ended threat.

invasion of Iraq — boethius

... have been fairly consistently and openly criticized (including by Americans), as well it should.

Opinion: ‘At my first meeting with Saddam Hussein, within 30 seconds, he knew two things about me,’ says FBI interrogator
^{— Peter Bergen · CNN · Mar 21, 2023}

Critique hasn't been shut down like it might have elsewhere (then again, it wasn't a land grab). Might be more to come.

NATO has also helped dull national attention to defense. Switzerland and Sweden have a tradition of neutrality. Maybe those days are over? — Jan 13, 2023

the United States[’] intent has been [...] to remilitarize Europe — Tzeentch

... or to have Europe (re)learn sufficient self-defense?

the Europeans didn't have any militaries to speak of — Tzeentch

Lots of diverse Europeans in the US and vice versa. Worrying must be tiresome.

Obama urges NATO members to pull their weight
^{— Nolan D McCaskill · POLITICO · Nov 15, 2016}
NATO allies boost defense spending in the wake of Trump criticism
^{— Michael Birnbaum, Thomas Gibbons-Neff · The Washington Post · Jun 28, 2017}

that Russia is forced to mobilize and expand and develop its military — Tzeentch

Forced? No. (For that matter, they're not forced to keep Belarus on such a tight leash.) Putin has chosen (the tradition of) harsh/uncompromising dominance/control.

FYI, some graphs and such from around the time of the invasion ...


^{↑ Source: The Graphic Truth: How do Russia and Ukraine stack up? · Gabrielle Debinski, Annie Gugliotta · GZERO Media · Feb 15, 2022}

Russia and Ukraine's Military Strength: Same Data, Different Visualizations
^{— Juan Pablo Garnica Munévar · Datasketch · Feb 25, 2022}

National aid relative to national economy:


^{↑ Source: The Countries Pulling Their Weight in Ukraine Aid · Martin Armstrong · Statista · Oct 21, 2022}

Some numbers by country (go to source for higher resolution):


^{↑ Source: West continues arms supplies to Ukraine as war drags into 2nd year · Burc Eruygur, Elena Teslova · Anadolu Agency · Feb 25, 2023}

Nitty gritty details ...

Ukraine Support Tracker
^{— Katelyn Bushnell, André Frank, Lukas Franz, Ivan Kharitonov, Stefan Schramm, Christoph Trebesch · Kiel Institute · ongoing}
Arms Transfers to Ukraine
^{— Forum on the Arms Trade · ongoing}
List of humanitarian aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War
^{— Wikipedia · ongoing}
List of military aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War
^{— Wikipedia · ongoing}

How can Ukraine deal with large Russian numbers/resources?
How can Russia deal with large Ukrainian aid/resources?

While the mercs are levelling Bakhmut, Russian military may be digging trenches in Crimea.

, voting is acting.

I suppose, if a majority of humans altogether are idiots (but not you :grin:), then perhaps that spells the (deserved) end of homo sapiens. (Genetic engineering, AI, artificial selection, control, eugenics, aliens, gods, to the rescue?)

Did you really think he was a one man show? — Isaac

Didn't even imply that. :roll: Did you really think I think so? :brow: I mean, really, honestly?

I don't see any cause to hope. If he goes away he'll be replaced by an identical figurehead with an identical agenda. — Isaac

That is, the majority of voters are dumb and blind and stupid? I suppose, if a majority of humans altogether are idiots (but not you :grin:), then perhaps that spells the (deserved) end of homo sapiens. (Genetic engineering, AI, artificial selection, control, eugenics, aliens, gods, to the rescue?)

Adding to earlier observations, this Kremlin crap ...

Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, has said Moscow’s ultimate goal in Ukraine is to topple the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an apparent pivot from the Kremlin’s earlier stance.
Lavrov made the comments in Egypt at the beginning of a tour of Africa, where the top diplomat has sought to raise support while downplaying Russia’s role in blocking grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
He told envoys at an Arab League summit in Cairo late on Sunday that Moscow was determined to help Ukrainians “liberate themselves from the burden of this absolutely unacceptable regime.”
He also said Kyiv and “its Western allies” were spreading propaganda intended to ensure that Ukraine “becomes the eternal enemy of Russia.”
“Russian and Ukrainian people would continue to live together, we will certainly help Ukrainian people to get rid of the regime, which is absolutely anti-people and anti-historical,” he said.
Lavrov’s remarks contrasted with the Kremlin’s stated position in the days following the February 24 invasion, when Russian officials said they sought to “denazify” and “demilitarise” Ukraine and downplayed the prospect of overthrowing Zelenskyy’s government. — Russia will help Ukrainians ‘get rid of regime’, says Lavrov · Al Jazeera · Jul 25, 2022

Russia says it wants to end Ukraine’s `unacceptable regime’
^{— Susie Blann · AP News · Jul 25, 2022}

There are no reasons for a transition of the situation in Ukraine to a peaceful course; achieving of the goals of the special operation is currently only possible by military means, Peskov said. — RIA News · Mar 13, 2023

... goes to show a kind of transparent reality-removed sentiment (assuming it's genuine). Kyiv called it "schizophrenic". :D Naturally, it's up to the Kremlin to tell others what they think, want, etc, and if they don't comply then it's the bombs and the mercs. But, aims of the Kremlin are implicitly being put out there. Not surprising though, it's an MO.

^{Georgia: Wikipedia 2008
Moldova: RFE/RL Feb 9, 2023; VOA Feb 13, 2023; WSJ Feb 22, 2023; Reuters Mar 10, 2023; Yahoo Mar 14, 2023; WION Mar 17, 2023; CNN Mar 18, 2023
Belarus: DW Feb 21, 2023; Telegraph Feb 21, 2023; MSNBC Feb 21, 2023 6m:46s; bne Feb 23, 2023}

@Isaac, those people weren't shut up or their stuff wouldn't be around for all to see. (Thinking of Russia? :grin:) What you label "Dissent" is how things work. Then there's the rest of the community, too many to list I guess. (Have you scoffed at some of their interviews or whatever, manipulated/imposed by mass media / government narratives?) Casting it as dissent versus mainstream story-telling like so is politicizing it or enabling (political) misuse, ripe for en vogue toxicity.

^{Returning to my earlier comment, no calls for masking up, :mask:-industrial complex begone, saving the kids, no occasional lock-down, which would be fascist authoritarian anyway, no vaccine coverage, the evil Big Pharma to be purged, no travel or gathering restrictions, more authoritarian control done with, WHO and the CDC were once wrong, hence never to be trusted, ... Kind of business as usual, I suppose partially in the name of dissent (well, at least until there's harmony among all it would seem). Whichever of the above, and wherever outliers/disagreements can be found. Besides, it's up to every individual alone (freedom guaranteed by law), right? Thus, laissez-faire it is. ... Is ← ↑ that it, then, or ...? (Or, I'd hope.)}

... You name it, someone said it. — Mar 12, 2023

Sometimes we have a situation on our hands that we still have to deal with. The problem here isn't whatever an individual says in particular, it's a matter of taking all of it into consideration to get it dealt with, and there are experts doing that as well. (Are you one of them?) Are we ready for the next one?

, where people get what they vote for, the voters would have to be told, ehh to be asked to choose better, yes? Where people don't (really) get a vote, whatever else would apply.

Anyway, hopefully the Frump will see justice and/or go away.

In other news:

Starbucks CEO Clearly Just Coming To Company Headquarters To Use Bathroom
^{— The Onion · Mar 15, 2023}

He clogged the toilet, stuffed some sugar packets into his pockets, and left. He took a minute to hover near the front, pretending to read a couple of documents, but his eyes were darting toward the bathroom door the whole time. — Alison Whitlock (Starbucks project manager)

Alison Whitlock [...] estimated that Schultz came into the Starbucks office approximately three to four times a week just to lock himself in the bathroom for 10 minutes and leave a terrible mess. — The Onion

Yank — boagie

Heck no. I once lived on Manhattan for half a year (work-related, wife's visits paid for), that's about the extent of my Yankdom. Not about me anyway. (Why do people do that?)

Not really surprising, is it? (Anyone?)

Secret document reveals Russia’s 10-year plan to destabilize Moldova
^{— Tim Lister · CNN · Mar 17, 2023}

• Feb 24
• Feb 27

Anyway, I'd find it more surprising if no such plans were around.

, you OK...?
(terse copy/pastes of the well-known propaganda and such isn't really cool)

isn't really a big deal — Tzeentch

timid reaction — Tzeentch

These two ↑ are consistent at least.

Russia simply should exit from Ukraine, including Crimea, and respect the territorial integrity of the country what it has accepted starting when the country became independent.

Having any problem with that? — ssu

Seems like some want to forget that (perhaps not even keep it part of the equation). :zip:

By the looks of it, every week the invaders wreak havoc, forgive-and-forget becomes harder for the defenders, and the invaders have been at it for a year now.

Russia's Wagner mercenary group says it's no longer recruiting convicts. This may signal a shift in strategy
^{— Tim Lister · CNN · Feb 11, 2023}
Russian Federation: UN experts alarmed by recruitment of prisoners by “Wagner Group”
^{— Ravindran Daniel, Aua Baldé et al · UN/OHCHR · Mar 10, 2023}
Wagner Group recruiting in Russian schools after heavy losses in Bakhmut: report
^{— Snejana Farberov · New York Post · Mar 14, 2023}
Wagner Group opens recruitment center in Murmansk
^{— Atle Staalesen, Georgii Chentemirov · The Independent Barents Observer · Mar 15, 2023}
Russia's Wagner army is recruiting fighters on Pornhub in a desperate attempt to strengthen troops, report says
^{— Sophia Ankel · Business Insider · Mar 16, 2023}

Prigozhin have announced that recruitment centers for the Wagner Group have opened in 42 Russian cities. ^{(The Daily Digest summary)}

Mercs: live by the sword, die by the sword (and not missed by the defenders).

Have to wonder what their job description and contract say.

"You run into the fire when ordered to by a commander, and kill as many Ukrainians as you can. Apart from 240,000 rubles a month, your pay reflects your kill count. If you survive long enough, then you might be promoted to commander. Defectors will be dealt with."

:D Don't say Russians don't have a sense of humor. Some of them anyway.

Russian politician fined for "noodle ears" stunt during Putin speech
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Kevin Liffey · Reuters · Mar 16, 2023}

(Reuters) - A Russian local politician was fined nearly $2,000 on Thursday for "discrediting the armed forces" by dangling spaghetti from his ears while listening to a speech by President Vladimir Putin, a human rights monitoring group said.
Mikhail Abdalkin was convicted for a stunt, which he filmed and posted on social media, based on a Russian saying that someone who has been strung along or deceived has had noodles hung on their ears.
The implication was that he did not believe the content of the state of the nation speech that Putin delivered on Feb. 21, just before the first anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine.
The monitoring group OVD-Info quoted Abdalkin, a Communist from the Samara region, as saying it had been an ironic gesture to express his dissatisfaction with "the president's silence about internal political problems". He was fined 150,000 roubles ($1,950).
Russia's parliament this month tightened laws passed shortly after the invasion that now stipulate fines or jail terms of up to 15 years for discrediting or spreading false news about the armed forces or others, such as the Wagner mercenary group, who are taking part in the war in Ukraine. ($1 = 76.8455 roubles)

At least Abdalkin wasn't jailed (or worse).

The key question is whether Tuesday's encounter was an attempt by Russia to disrupt the US drone and its work, or whether it was a deliberate attempt to bring it down. [...] The US will now have to evaluate its response. — James Landale, Henri Astier · BCC · Mar 15, 2023

By the way, there's not really anything new about the recon, been going on for a long time, it's in international space anyway, and not just the US. Employing observations about their methods, we can hence conclude that they were provoking the watchers. :D Maybe drones should have a self-destruct mechanism that could take such jets down with it?

More info here:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/3/14/russia-ukraine-live-news-russia-does-not-recognise-icc-kremlin — Manuel

A few more reports on the incident ... Reuters, AP News, Axios, BBC, CNN
Someone has become quick to accuse others of what they themselves are doing. :D
Maybe more details will come out if/when the drone recordings are declassified.


In other (but continuing) news ...

Ukraine war: Two Montreal companies sanctioned by U.S. for alleged ties to Russia
^{— Jacob Serebrin · The Star · Mar 7, 2023}

Does the future exist? — invicta

Hmm There's something odd about the question.
The term "exist" is in present tense, but about "the future".

So, the 2002 SARS outbreak was contained somewhat effectively. The outbreak was first detected in late 2002, and was more or less said to have been stopped by 2005, with something in the range of 10,000 known cases (10% fatalities). Determining infection with the virus was largely by symptoms, followed by testing, tracing.

The 2019 outbreak was different, no similar stoppage (or control), including the subsequent mutations. What went wrong? Was the later COVID-19 virus that much more effective in spreading across the globe, perhaps especially the subsequent Ο-variant? Higher survivability outside of infectees? Indifference/complacency/obstruction? Too much politicizing? (Frump culture? :smile:) Something else? Multiple factors seem likely as of typing.

Surely we want to learn. We've learned some things, with likely more to come. Maybe it'll be a case study sometime in the future. Fortunately, the fatality rate is also lower. Are we prepared for the next one?

I came across someone saying something like ... tinder is still catching fire (tinder being the more vulnerable). Some say that nothing in particular should be done in case of outbreaks (altogether), others say "safety first caution", others still ... You name it, someone said it.

Lessons learned so far?

I guess we might say that everything is that which can have no complement.

everything ≈ that which has no complement
∁ E = ∅

That's without trying to get into "every" and "thing" and tedious semantics and whatnot.
So, fictions/imaginations are included, and contrasted with real.

Note that such statements are also around, hence parts thereof.

That being said, I don't think "everything" or "existence" are the kinds of words lending themselves to concise definitions.
As a starting point you (literally) can't miss it (in part), whatever exactly it may all be.

This thread has become an embarrassment. :)

Something was tagged for moderation? :D What happened?

Calls for special tribunal for Russia’s ‘war crimes’ in Ukraine
^{— Al Jazeera · Jan 17, 2023}

When peace talks were started in late March, that should have been the end of the war. — Tzeentch

Wouldn't have ended (supposed) Putinian NATO-phobia. Their arguments against NATO expansion would apply to the remaining Ukraine just the same.
They might grab more land meanwhile, with future would-be / other autocrats/dictators taking notes, and UN votes being laughed at, at the expense of Ukrainians falling under Kremlin's rule. "Not standing up to the bully/thief/murderer means bullying/theft/murder" (or however it goes). I'm guessing the people in Seoul have been unhappy about Putin opening Pandora's nuclear box; it's out now, "What's next, Putin?"
Others see elevated Putin-phobia, fear, tension, justification for mobilization. ^{(Jun 24, 2022; Feb 17, 2023; Feb 26, 2023; Mar 6, 2023, Mar 7, 2023)}
The Ukrainians wouldn't have it, and would have been abandoned and left to Putin's devices, perhaps "deNazification" (+ anti-homosexual) efforts, whatever, all the while Putin being hailed/encouraged as a victorious leader at home.
Such flirting with complicity might have consequences, immediate-term peace-mongery setting the stage for longer-term disasters (to explain to upcoming generations), cashing in for an unknown future, a trajectory the Ukrainians were trying to put distance to.
At least volunteer soldiers of fortune can't quite be counted as victims (nor the likes of Yevgeny Sokolov).
No one should forget who unleashed (and is unleashing) the destruction + land grabbery on the Ukrainians. Nope, this ain't just "Western propaganda"; such handwave dismissal doesn't do anyone any favors (except the Putinistas). Talks are good though, exchange, keep trying, heck maybe disabuse "Gremlinian new reality" and other crap.
But of course — war :fire: is :death: bad — everyone already knows the various arguments, some have been repeated often enough without adding anything new.
Suppose they were to run with capitulation of regions. Then what?

I don't take Scott Ritter very seriously. — Tzeentch

Yudin, then? Others? (Just those assigning specific blame...?)

Hey , any updates from the ground?

Putin’s War Against Ukraine: The End of The Beginning
^{— Eugene Rumer · Carnegie · Feb 17, 2023}

Russia was favored to win quickly. A year later, he is betting on the opposite—to wage a long war against Ukraine, exploiting the advantages that Russia’s size, resilient economy, and relative security from retaliation afford him. Victory on the battlefield has proved elusive. A counteroffensive in Donbas, combined with the ongoing campaign of terror against Ukrainian cities and towns and destruction of the country’s infrastructure, is his next best options.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 24 February 2023
^{— Ministry of Defence UK · Feb 24, 2023}

In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again. Its campaign now likely primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing substantial new territory.
The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia’s advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.

So Russia's strategy is that a sufficient supply of bodies (Russian bodies) will eventually exhaust Ukraine's supply of shells. :sad: — Sir Balthazar Wobbly · Feb 24, 2023

CIA director William Burns on "Face the Nation"
^{— Margaret Brennan · CBS News · Feb 26, 2023}

At some point, he's going to have to face up to increasing costs as well, in coffins coming home to some of the poorest parts of Russia because many of the conscripts, you know, who are being thrown as cannon fodder in the front and the Donbas as well, come from Dagestan and Buryatia, the poorest parts of Russia as well.

Merc head Prigozhin is apparently unhappy (also Feb 28, 2023) ...
Wagner chief warns of collapse of Russian front line if there is retreat from Bakhmut
^{— Lauren Sforza · The Hill · Mar 6, 2023}
Potentially being "set up"...? A ruse...?

Seems a stretch that the current situation was Putin's plan all along. (?)


On another note, Mearsheimer or Yudin? A bit of both?
It’s not NATO — Putin always has had expansionist designs
^{— Alexander J Motyl · The Hill · Mar 6, 2023}

Slovakia basks under NATO umbrella, sends Ukraine old arms
^{— Karel Janicek · AP News · Mar 1, 2023}

Not really surprising I suppose.

The report has takeaways.

Slovakia is a Ukraine neighbor and has been "invaded" by NATO forces :smile: that don't otherwise interfere in political processes or daily lives or whatever. The Slovaks don't consider NATO a security threat. They seem to be (and have been) doing relatively/reasonably well as far as the regular Jane and John Slovak goes. Go figure.

^{(you may contrast with other/parallel developments like ... Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Mar 2022, Jul 2022, Aug 2022, Sep 2022, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, W ... anyway, much has been posted in the thread prior)}

They're looking into sending some old "unwieldy" gear to the Ukrainians except keeping one of them as a museum piece. I guess the protection is what the Ukrainians (once) hoped for, which isn't something the UN can do.

, maybe. I was admittedly being a bit facetious. :)
Don't think it's that simple, and don't know exactly what has been seized from who and why.
Putin does have supporters among those people though, and others that aren't so supportive.

EU seeks to use frozen Russian funds to rebuild Ukraine
^{— Terje Solsvik, Essi Lehto, Niklas Pollard, Sandra Maler · Reuters · Feb 14, 2023}
There's an idea. — Feb 14, 2023

Dozens of sanctioned superyachts seized from Russian oligarchs still hang in limbo, racking up millions in maintenance
^{— Grace Kay, Sam Tabahriti · Business Insider · Mar 4, 2023}

Auction them off, put money into fund for Ukraine. :)

A look into what Jane and John Russian get on national TV, Russia-1:
via Julia Davis of Russian Media Monitor (Mar 2, 2023 · 9m:38s)

Taken together with Lavrov's statements (and others) a story is told.

If [t]he US bombed Nord Stream [...] — Tzeentch

How many of Russia's presently available forces are deployed/involved in Putin's war in Ukraine (perhaps with/out mercs, un/trained, respectively)? (, others)

Tearful scenes and protest as mobilization gets underway in Russia
^{— Simone McCarthy, Matthew Chance, Tim Lister, Anna Chernova, Mick Krever, et al · CNN · Sep 23, 2022}
Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine
^{— Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch · Foreign Policy · Sep 28, 2022}
Russia’s Reindeer Brigade Is Fighting For Its Survival In Southern Ukraine
^{— David Axe · Forbes · Oct 7, 2022}
Russia sends St. Petersburg riot police to Mariupol to stop new protests
^{— Daniel Stewart · News 360 · Dec 16, 2022}

but now Putin's Russia is busy elsewhere (Ukraine), and apparently neglecting the alliance — Jan 11, 2023

Russia says little about its soldiers dying, so an open-source team is trying to keep track
^{— Briar Stewart et al · CBC News · Mar 4, 2023}
2022 Russian mobilization
^{— Wikipedia}

Who knows, maybe Prigozhin made Putin some verbal promises to the effect of saving some troubles involved in larger (unpopular) mobilization/conscription? (you know how it is among gangsters, better keep your word, or else...)

A summary of the attack in Russia's southern Bryansk (sources included):

Vladimir Putin: Latest conflict could be sign that 'Russians will begin to wake up', official claims
^{— Ali Postma · Ohmymag UK · Mar 3, 2023}

The attack itself seems a bit odd. Some anti-Putin Russians in Ukraine got together and went posturing without going after anything of much importance in Russia. Just to show they can or something? Not much of a political rally, either. A probe maybe? And Putin's reaction is rather overshadowed by his efforts in Ukraine. There's not really any comparison, though I suppose emphasizing the attack can provide a distraction.

Top Russian official's remark about Ukraine war draws laughter — neomac

Yep, which also echoes Boris Bondarev's comments about "degradation".

Crowd erupts in laughter at Russia's top diplomat after he claimed the Ukraine war 'was launched against us'
^{— Rebecca Cohen, John Haltiwanger · Business Insider India · Mar 4, 2023}

What's up with Lavrov? Lying? Following the script? Bullshitting? Propagandizing? Expressing his belief?

Anyone can speculate on what goes on in Putin's head.
Maybe he got pissed off that the Ukrainians took a different path, went their own way, independent of and diverging from his Russia... Betraying traitors!
And, adding insult to injury, those evil damn Westerners, intruding with their democracy, "progressiveness", homosexuals, and McDonald's... Fuckers!

Zygar writes that Putin ‘flew into a rage’ and warned that ‘if Ukraine joins NATO it will do so without Crimea and the eastern regions. It will simply fall apart’ (Zygar 2016, 153–154). — Rajan Menon, William Ruger · 2020

Putin threw a fit like a petulant little child and decided to no longer play the game he was losing...so you now have violence and war. — Sooner5030 · Mar 10, 2022

What more does a guy need? :)

, what you keep missing is that there are assessments here of what Putin + team want others to hear, whether true/false/bullshit, each of which can be found.

Industrialized land grab (and then some):

Moscow Reportedly Threatened New Parents in Ukraine: Register Your Newborns as Russian or Else
^{— Tony Spitz · Veuer/Flipboard · Mar 3, 2023}
Ukrainians say they were pressured to register babies as Russian during occupation
^{— Rod Nickel, Leonardo Benassatto · Reuters · Mar 3, 2023}

"There is no Ukraine, only Russia." — Mar 2, 2023

(partial repeat...)

Some of these sanctions-defying oddities are old-fashioned greed, others are features (or incidental side-effects) of larger interwoven economies/markets, others still could be ideologically motivated yet this seems rare or covert.

Stop funding Russia’s nuclear weapons
^{— Henry Sokolski · The Hill · Nov 13, 2022}
Exclusive: The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones
^{— Stephen Grey, Maurice Tamman, Maria Zholobova · Reuters · Dec 15, 2022}
CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies
^{— Natasha Bertrand · CNN · Jan 4, 2023}
Two Americans arrested in alleged scheme to supply Russia with aviation equipment
^{— Julia Mueller · The Hill · Mar 2, 2023}

Also makes you wonder about proliferation of nuclear arms components, though fortunately under tighter restrictions.

, then there's a land corridor connecting Crimea and Russia (Kerch is a bit skimpy), and perhaps connecting Transnistria, all of Ukraine being the "best" outcome, right? And, just as importantly, hanging onto it. All (seen as) up'ing Russia's power position. Others might get in the way of such plans/aspirations (the Ukrainians certainly are). Crimea seems to have some importance to the Kremlin. And Sevastopol hosts their Black Sea fleet.

I doubt it's geo-political-military type dominance exclusively, though. The grain incidents in the summer showed the comprehensive market share of Ukraine for all to see. Now sweep all of that (on a national level) under the Kremlin. Control and profit from "The Breadbasket of Europe". Europe's largest nuclear plant is north of Kherson south of Zaporizhzhia, various other industries, ... Might look good on Putin if he managed to assimilate that stuff. Bonus.

Sometimes the invaders have been kind of extensive in activities (for lack of a better word). While still occupying Kherson, they emptied out the art gallery/museum there. The admin kept working there when allowed to by the soldiers. Pretty much empty now. One might hope they moved the art stuff out of the way of their upcoming shelling, right? But who knows, they didn't say, there's no paperwork, heck no piles of them having burnt it all, the stuff's in the wind. "There is no Ukraine, only Russia."

Anyway, ssu probably has more/better insights than me.

EDITED

, I think Mearsheimer argued that the Kremlin decided Crimea is important enough for a Russian power position to grab. Maybe that's just part of it. Anyway, never mind me, carry on.

Shit! (apologies if my French is off)

Today a god has arrived in our galaxy!
You know, an all-powerful and infinitely good being...
"But!?! It smells like..."
"I'm covered in..."
"260 tons of shit in the silos at this base..."
It was a dream... The nightmare is when you wake up...
:D (absurdity of (industrialized) human killing)

André Franquin
Idées noires
1977-1984

So you're just going to support the US efforts to stoke the fires? — Tzeentch

Hmm Skipping it is, then. There are a few "fire-stokers" including the US, much to Prigozhin's dismay; there's also one fire-ender (skipped). Not that it matters much, as it stands I will run with the UN:

Reasonably clear (repeated) messages:
• UN 68/262 (Mar 27, 2014)
• UN 2623 (Feb 27, 2022)
• UN ES-11/5 (Nov 14, 2022)
• UN (Feb 23, 2023) — earlier comment

, as far as I know, the "weaken Russia" aim dates to the Cold War; original/declassified documents would be nifty to take a glance at, though it doesn't really seem to have been much of a secret. In this case, there's a "strengthen Russia" aim, except at Ukraine's expense.

Reasonably clear (repeated) messages:
• UN 68/262 (Mar 27, 2014)
• UN 2623 (Feb 27, 2022)
• UN ES-11/5 (Nov 14, 2022)
• UN (Feb 23, 2023)

Russia was always "strong" though, certainly "stronger" than most peer states, heck by size/resources alone. Russia isn't doomed to destruction without Ukraine (or Transnistria for that matter), but "weaker" than it would be if having assimilated others, which I suppose holds for such takeovers.

And other screens perchance? :D

At this rate we can soon hear from Russian screens that it was USA and NATO that attacked Ukraine, not Russia. — Anton Gerashchenko (Oct 26, 2022)

FYI, how things are done in Moscow, reported by different sources, Yevgeny Prigozhin complains about his mercs not getting enough ammo from the Russian army to kill Ukrainians:

I’m unable to solve this problem despite all my connections and contacts. Those who interfere with us trying to win this war are absolutely, directly working for the enemy. — Prigozhin (Al Jazeera, Feb 20, 2023)

The chief of general staff and the defence minister give out orders left and right not only to not give ammunition to PMC Wagner, but also to not help it with air transport. There is just direct opposition going on, which is nothing less than an attempt to destroy Wagner. This can be equated to high treason. — Prigozhin (France 24, Feb 21, 2023)

They didn’t give us ammunition, and they still don't. It’s now 10 o'clock in the morning on 22 February. No steps have been taken to issue ammunition. What’s the problem? I will explain. I’m posting a photo below. This is one of the gathering places of the dead. These are the guys who died yesterday because of the so-called shell famine. There should have been five times fewer of them. — Prigozhin (Ukrainska Pravda, Feb 22, 2023)

So far, it's all on paper but, so we have been told, the principal documents have already been signed. I would like to thank all those who helped us do this. You saved hundreds, maybe thousands of lives of guys who are defending their homeland, gave them a chance to move on with their lives. — Prigozhin (Reuters, Feb 23, 2023)

There's a bit more commentary in the reports.

Meanwhile in Germany ...

Thousands protest in Berlin against giving weapons to Ukraine
^{— Kate Connolly · The Guardian · Feb 25, 2023}

Don't see much of those in Moscow (any more). The report has broader commentary.

when if the US bombed Nord Stream — Tzeentch

:brow:

the Germans' servile attitude beyond shameful, and as indicative of the relationship between the US and Europe - one of vassalage [...] European political leaders are servants of the American agenda — Tzeentch

We might say ...

riddled with babbling bureaucracy thumb-twiddling impotence sitting-on-hands — Dec 7, 2022

NATO has also helped dull national attention to defense — Jan 13, 2023

By the way, I can think of some that would like the US going all isolation and NATO closing up shop. Can't tell if that's what you're suggesting here; is it?

lot of war trumpeting — Tzeentch

Hmm Are you deliberately skipping who's doing the warring here, continuing the ...

Invasion/attacks multipronged, like conventional (e.g. artillery), intimidation/terrorism-like (bombing throughout, building instability, insurgency), cultural (e.g. re-enculturation, suppression), political (e.g. narrative-hijacking, annexations by fakery, land grab, propaganda) — Jan 10, 2023

...? Ain't Germany ...

, sorry, late response. I think Putin nuking, say, Kyiv over southeastern Ukraine is unrealistic. And Sudzha for that matter.

Moldova is a small blotch on Putin's map, except not white+blue+red enough.

Besides, Putin's Russia pushing up against Moldova looks great on a map; Transnistria is already in the process of being "converted" (vaguely similar to Donbas). — May 9, 2022

«We, Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia, can't have weapons of mass destruction pointed our way sitting on our doorstep. Should actions toward that come to pass, we'd have to take counter-measures. And in case of threats from non-democratic regimes, more decisive measures.» — Oct 13, 2022

Opinion: Moldova isn’t on the front page, but it could be in Putin’s crosshairs
^{— Cristian Gherasim · CNN · Feb 15, 2023} — Feb 16, 2023

Moldova president accuses Russia of plotting to oust pro-EU government
^{— Jennifer Rankin · The Guardian · Feb 13, 2023}
Decree on measures to implement the foreign policy course is declared invalid (Russian)
^{— The Kremlin · Feb 21, 2023}
Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of February 21, 2023 No. 111 / On recognizing as invalid the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 605 / On measures to implement the foreign policy of the Russian Federation (Russian)
^{— Official Internet portal of legal information · Kremlin · Feb 21, 2023}
Putin cancels decree underpinning Moldova's sovereignty in separatist conflict
^{— Alexander Tanas · Reuters · Feb 21, 2023}
The World Has Gotten a Little More Dangerous
^{— Daniel McIntosh · Medium · Feb 23, 2023}

Ends when Putin says so or is compelled to? Doesn't?

Kremlin's Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation:

Putin signs decree establishing Presidential directorate for cross-border cooperation
^{— TASS · Oct 2, 2018}

At the time, Oleg Govorun was the head poncho, nowadays Alexey Filatov is (hierarchy → Dmitry Kozak → Putin). There's a bit about Filatov here (en), here (en), here (en), here (en) if anyone cares.

In 2021, their main targets switched from Georgia more to Moldova, the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine.

The "cooperation" part is a front, does not really involve working with corresponding agencies in those other countries. Some say they assess geo-political-military aims, plan covert insurgencies, political influence, applied intelligence, things like that.

Either way, looking into their role might be interesting for the so inclined. "There be dragons."

Not going to link Putin's Feb 21 speech here ...

Putin is not really saying anything new, but all these old ideas are being put forward in a much more radical form. — Tatiana Stanovaya

... It's largely the trite old bullshit (in the technical sense) anyway.

«...; Nazis; we want peace; dire existential threat to Russia; "the West" is to blame for it all; Ukraine is Russian; they hate us; homosexuals begone; ...»

I am grateful to the [...] journalists, primarily war correspondents, that are risking their lives to tell the truth to the world — Putin (Feb 21, 2023)

Per earlier comments, where are the foreign/independent reports with the invading forces? I'd like to see some anyway, the more the better. Other journalists are already showing the truth to the world. As to "the teachers", "cultural figures", "pastors", ... We've seen the organized systematic (re)enculturation and oppression efforts; kind of sinister. Putin may have picked up how to speak to (some) religious folk from US politics, how to make them nod in agreement, or enough of them. It's not difficult to find people speaking Kremlin outside of Russia, it's more difficult to find people speaking non-Kremlin in Russia.

We also recall the Kiev regime’s vain attempts to obtain nuclear weapons — Putin (Feb 21, 2023)

By 2001 all nuclear weapons in Ukraine had been handed over to Russia; maybe they should have kept them so as to better keep land grabbers at bay? Meanwhile, another Russian neighbor is increasingly becoming a (nuclear) threat.

Putin's war efforts in Ukraine continue to create haters. Putin using it as a justification isn't really the best. He's the primary threat to Russia(ns). That's what others have to deal with / respond to. Kim Jong-un might learn/follow depending on what happens. And Moldovans are getting higher blood pressure.

:D As an aside, on Mar 21, 2022:



↑ Source (Jun 30, 2022)