Ukraine is a tool, willing or not for more or less actual Ukrainians, of Western, mainly US, policy. — boethius

Convenient, that Ukraine and others could come together in a common cause, huh? :D Democracies against autocrats, defenders against invaders, ...?

Hard to tell what would happen if, say, the UK was to deploy 6000 troops + equipment, Poland 6000, France 6000, Romania 3000, Spain 5000, the US 10000, Australia 2000, Luxembourg 10, Norway 800, in Ukraine. (just whatever came to mind while typing, and assuming this stuff would go through whatever procedures the respective governments have, however unlikely, but invitation accepted) Would Putin play the victim card (again)? Take Kim Jong-un's offer? Tell Lukashenko "Send what you got!"? Ukraine could become quite the battleground. Not sure how realistic something like this is, but one might hope not all that likely...? What might happen?

NATO can defend Ukrainian cities, creating an interceptor network around major population centers to destroy incoming Russian missiles — Limiting the war: What might Western intervention look like in Ukraine? · Seth Cropsey · The Hill · Nov 27, 2022

Cropsey's comment ↑ there doesn't need NATO so close by. NASAMS (and others) can help. :up:

Lavrov says Ukrainians will be liberated from neo-Nazi rulers
^{— TASS · Nov 26, 2022}

Getting old, the Nazi thing (and Lavrov perhaps). Been shown the door. Repeating doesn't make it so.

What would warrant "the complete destruction of Ukraine"? Self-defense?

Everything is in the hands of Ukraine. Not because I want to push this topic on Zelenskyy and Ukraine. In fact, everything is now in the hands of Ukraine. If they do not want the death, moreover, in huge numbers, of people. It is difficult, difficult, difficult, but it must be stopped, it must be stopped because what will follow is the complete destruction of Ukraine... It is not that Putin said long before the "operation" that this would threaten the loss of statehood - it would be the destruction of Ukraine. — Alexander Lukashenko

Ukraine Situation Report
^{— UNOCHA · ongoing}
October–November 2022 nationwide missile strikes on Ukraine
^{— Wikipedia · ongoing}

Kind of obscene. (For that matter, are homosexuals next?)

Why exactly should a country accept that another country or group of countries limits its possible actions? — Benkei

Not all "possible actions", but in said context

The irony here is that Putin's Russia instead has proven a real, present threat to Ukraine. — jorndoe

There aren't that many protective clubs around. Putin would divert with reasons against any. The trajectories of Putin's Russia and Ukraine diverged. (But, hey, maybe Russia should become Ukrainian. :smile:) NATO ain't that dire existential threat it's made out to be by some. The fear-mongering by intuitive emotive appeal is another tool.

how Russians see NATO — Benkei

Most Russians / Russians in general? Hard to tell while Putin's team sets the agenda, largely controls broadcasts. Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, whoever, apparently don't have particular reservations about NATO. Georgia left the CSTO (subject to the signature Russian interloping). The other day Putin had a get-together with select wives and mothers of lost soldiers. He made sure to emphasize not to believe what others say.

How to stop rolling the dice on the destruction of human civilization ← pessimistic
^{— Kelsey Piper · Vox · Sep 22, 2022}

Russia will lose as well as whoever else if they go nuclear. If that's on Putin's table anyway, then what's to stop them? It's become a perpetual threat begging for international standards/transparency toward stability. North Korea ain't helping. Another murderous autocrat. At least China is trying.

Russian confidence in NATO acting with restraint is shown by reports like:
“Russia had this ground force posture facing us for decades that is now effectively just gone.” — Paine

NATO wasn't/isn't this dire existential threat to Russia that's been proselytized and swallowed by whoever around the globe.
But, sure, NATO troop concentrations close to Russian borders could be seen as threatening moreso than local/native/domestic troops, and NATO training local troops could be seen as threatening in a way.
It's kind of the other way around, NATO would get in the way of free Russian military actions, and it's that "threat" that's been swapped out (partly successfully it seems) by the propagandists.
That being said, there's the matter of Sevastopol and the Black Sea Fleet, previously under the Kharkiv Pact, until ditched by Russia in March 2014.
If their perception is that Russia is doomed without that stuff intact (or perhaps doomed without a secured expansion thereof), then that could explain their invasion, waging war.
Until no-NATO is set in stone, Ukrainian NATO membership remains looming however, unless all of Ukraine was to be assimilated by Russia — this sort of "threat" can be raised perpetually by the propagandists.
What we've seen in Russian broadcasts can occasaionally best be described as paranoid fear-feeding.
The main threat NATO poses to Putin's Russia is to them getting away with free military actions, not the dire existential threat proselytized by their propagandists.
Meanwhile, they're raining destruction on Ukraine, refusing to let the EU act as an interlocutor, shamming and attempting to re-culturate, creating more haters.
The irony here is that Putin's Russia instead has proven a real, present threat to Ukraine.

Putin Admits Annexation of Crimea Put in Motion Weeks Before Referendum
^{— Vladimir Soldatkin · Haaretz · Mar 9, 2015}
Putin reveals secrets of Russia's Crimea takeover plot
^{— BBC · Mar 9, 2015}
From 'Not Us' To 'Why Hide It?': How Russia Denied Its Crimea Invasion, Then Admitted It
^{— Carl Schreck · RFE/RL · Feb 26, 2019}
Putin Admits He’s Worried NATO Could Help Ukraine Get Crimea Back
^{— Allison Quinn · The Daily Beast · Feb 1, 2022}
Putin doesn’t fear NATO or Ukraine — he fears democracy
^{— David Tafuri · The Hill · Feb 10, 2022}

Putin may dislike NATO expansion, but he is not genuinely frightened by it. — What Putin Fears Most · Robert Person, Michael McFaul · Journal of Democracy · Apr 2022

Putin sees no threat from NATO expansion, warns against military build-up
^{— Guy Faulconbridge · Reuters · May 16, 2022}
Regime Preservation is Putin’s Primary Concern
^{— Mary Glantz · USIP · Sep 22, 2022}
Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine
^{— Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch · Foreign Policy · Sep 28, 2022}
How to respond to Putin’s land grab and nuclear gambit
^{— Steven Pifer · Brookings · Oct 4, 2022}

Russia’s Justice Ministry puts Meta Platform Inc on register of extremist organizations
^{— TASS · Nov 25, 2022}

Russia's justice ministry adds Meta to 'extremist' list - Kommersant
^{— Reuters · Nov 25, 2022}

:grin:

Russia rains missiles on liberated Ukrainian city of Kherson
^{— The Hindu · Nov 25, 2022}

What a joke.
Maybe Monty Python took residence at Zhitnaya Street 14.

Ukraine does not have allies. Ukraine has arms suppliers. — boethius

... and humanitarian aid (medicine, food, whatever), organized refugee aid, training and intelligence aid, UN support (68/262, ES-11/4). Putin's team has whined about NATO, this alliance is seemingly off the table.

and the ISW... seriously — Isaac

First Wikipedia copy/paste looks a bit raised to a genetic fallacy.
Second looks fine, except you'll rarely find something like this with exclusively positive reception.
Temper mon capitaine, I wouldn't just wholly dismiss them that easily with a casual handwave.
It's not like InfoWars or something.

Hmm... Are the war efforts losing steam/support or is that just wishful thinking?

Analysis: Have China and India shifted stance on Russia war?
^{— Foster Klug · AP News · Nov 17, 2022}

G20’s criticism of Russia shows the rise of a new Asian power. And it isn’t China
^{— Rhea Mogul · CNN · Nov 17, 2022}

Angry families say Russian conscripts thrown to front line unprepared
^{— Robyn Dixon, Natalia Abbakumova · The Washington Post · Nov 20, 2022}

Meanwhile in Russia: a rare moment of sanity on Russian state TV, when one panelist was finally fed up with Vladimir Solovyov's threats to wipe Kyiv or Kharkiv off the face of the earth.
^{— Julia Davis · Russian Media Monitor · Nov 20, 2022}

The wife of a Russian soldier says she gave her TV away because the war in Ukraine was making her 'aggressive'
^{— Sophia Ankel · Business Insider · Nov 21, 2022}

Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov had clearly given up on the idea of defeating Ukraine militarily. In his desperation to scare the West into stopping its support, he resorts to nuclear threats—but even fellow propagandists are sick of it & say he lost all sense of reality.
^{— Julia Davis · Russian Media Monitor · Nov 22, 2022}

Families of drafted Russian soldiers accuse Putin of snubbing them
^{— Andrew Roth · The Guardian · Nov 23, 2022}

Putin's only alliance could crumble after special summit shows Russian despot isolated
^{— Alessandra Scotto di Santolo · Express · Nov 24, 2022}

, yeah, it's related to what I ended up calling re-culturation (admittedly an invented word from enculturation).

Oct 21, 2022

By the way, I already mentioned the Uyghur situation and the old Canadian Indian residential school system because of the uncanny parallels with the annexations — re-culturation. — Oct 29, 2022

Nov 8, 2022
Nov 11, 2022

Not really the kind of machinery you want rolling into town.

, without talks, everyone will just remain in the dark if you will. Putin might simply say "Nope" and bomb on, in which case everyone is equally in the dark. Or, he/they may engage, raise concerns (perhaps even legitimate ones), in which case: less in the dark. Part of talks is to publicize/share information. :up:

We might suppose things kind of freeze for a while with, say, Putin's Russia having taken over Crimea + Donbas + Zaporizhia, now parts of Russia according to them. Russian law, with whatever changes the autocrat circle sees fit, will be enforced. Give it another 8 years, with lots of new Russian soldiers, bomb factories, re-culturation, Putin's Chef (a nasty piece of work) having acquired additional power, industrial-strength propaganda and oppression, whatever along their current trajectory, and you have a recipe for disaster. (Kadyrov is another nasty piece of work in a top position, that ought to take up knitting rather than politics.) From memory (admittedly unreliable), Moldova is neutral by law (their constitution), which Putin's Russia has taken advantage of with Transnistria, a remnant of Soviet takeovers, happily inherited by Moscow. Such goes some longer-term conjectures — speculation yet plausible — that no one (else) wants, that would increase victim counts into an uncertain future.

On the other hand, if talks could reveal thinking, plans, concerns, objectives, issues, etc, then everyone would have something to consider, something stated to mull over, something to talk about. (Maybe Putin would just say "Ukraine is ours"? At least that'd be something.) A next-generation Kharkiv Pact remains worthwhile pursuing.

As an aside, my impression is that the EU needs to step up. There's far too much babbling thumb-twiddling impotence sitting-on-hands. Putin isn't all that likely to pay much attention to, say, Čaputová or Cassis on their own, just wee blotches on his map. Putting it off to our children (or their children) is too close to being complicit.

Talks, where talkers would bring something like the suggestion to be talked about. :up:

their goals — Paine

... could be put on the table in talks. :up: (If they don't feel too embarrassed?)

The reports in the post are from one day. Kind of obscene.

European Parliament declares Russia a state sponsor of terrorism
^{— Siebold, Trevelyan, Hunder, Meijer, Strauss, Baum, Macfie · Reuters · Nov 23, 2022
• via MSN}

Talks could start from UN (charter, votes), take it from there, see where it goes.

A reasonable and fair settlement, or starting point perhaps, could be ...

• Ukraine not to join NATO
• Ukraine to allow UN/similar inspectors to check for atrocities
• Ukraine and Russia to come to agreement like or based on the Kharkiv Pact
• Ukraine otherwise intact, free, sovereign — and not bombed
• Russian military personnel in Ukraine to go home
• any Ukrainians taken to Russia to be recorded and (allowed) to return home, first and foremost children and political prisoners
• some sort of guarantees to be signed ✓ for all to see
• ☮

This more or less meets stated demands. If someone wishes something else, then it can be stated, justified, negotiated, whatever. Maybe no-NATO isn't enough? Could add, say, no UK/US/Romanian/French military installations in Ukraine...?

To be investigated (doesn't seem like someone you'd want to surrender to):

Some Russian commanders encouraged sexual violence, says lawyer advising Kyiv
^{— Joanna Plucinska, Anthony Deutsch, Stefaniia Bern · Reuters · Nov 23, 2022
• via Business Insider, MSN, The Jerusalem Post}
(↑ there are other concerns of relevance here)

Some sort of rebuilding/reparations discussions would be appropriate:

Russian attacks force shutdown of all Ukrainian nuclear power plants
^{— Daniel Stewart · News360 · Nov 23, 2022}
Putin spreads 'terror and murder' across Ukraine with new missile blitz leaving cities without power and claiming lives in Kyiv after newborn was killed in overnight maternity ward strike
^{— Rachael Bunyan · Daily Mail · Nov 23, 2022}
Russia launches new wave of missile strikes across Ukraine
^{— The Kyiv Independent · Nov 23, 2022}

Admittedly, this may not look all that good for Putin's Russia. Regardless, I'd say take it to the diplomats. Besides, if they were ever serious about their parts of the stated demands, then they can't dismiss such a proposal with a handwave. Without getting talks going, all bets are off. Get things on the table.

Important stuff from April that you may have missed.

Russia-Ukraine War By The Numbers
^{— The Onion · Apr 1, 2022}

Waging war costs. Could always cease the invasion destruction re-culturation. :up:

Analysis: Surge in Russia's defence and security spending means cuts for schools and hospitals in 2023 ^{(via MSN, St Louis Post)
— Darya Korsunskaya · Reuters · Nov 22, 2022}

Apart from the mad bombing (now extended to Kherson apparently), Izium, Bucha, and such, atrocious incidents may of course be found on all sides:

Videos Suggest Captive Russian Soldiers Were Killed at Close Range
^{— Malachy Browne, Stephen Hiltner, Chevaz Clarke-Williams, Taylor Turner · The New York Times · Nov 20, 2022
• via Business Insider: UN reviewing video of captured Russian soldiers who appear to have been killed at close range, NYT reports
• via Yahoo: UN reviewing video of captured Russian soldiers who appear to have been killed at close range, NYT reports}

Ukraine to investigate alleged prisoner shooting video
^{— Julia Mueller · The Hill · Nov 20, 2022}

Will see what comes of it.

Russia’s Vindictive Rage ^{(via MSN)
— Tom Nichols · The Atlantic · Nov 21, 2022}

It’s obscene; it’s not constructive; it’s criminal to bomb peaceful cities. These things shouldn’t even be uttered—to ‘wipe a city off the face of the Earth’ is obscene. There are 1,001 ways to fight without touching civilians. — Yaakov Kedmi

Russia, as Kedmi and others now seem to realize, has gone far beyond any of the rationalizations Putin deployed last winter about saving the Ukrainians from “Nazis” or any other such nonsense. — Tom Nichols

Oh wait, is that "mainstream"? A "partyline"...? :grin:
"Destruction of our nation is the sole reason for their existence."
Had some such comments — and this ain't the only one — come out of some small country, then some would just have gone ahead and called them paranoid already.
Repeat: No one is marching on Moscow, or have threatened with that. Yet! :wink:

I appeal to Army General Sutovikin, a hero of Russia. Comrade Army General, I ask you to complete the destruction of the energy infrastructure of the Nazi Ukrainian junta, Captain Solovyov. — Nov 17, 2022

Huh ? Talking about the Nazi thing.

, it consists in their justification to wage war, rationalizations to ramp things up, riling people up with a sense of urgency and righteous hate, all that, taken together (already in the thread). They were/are put forth by the autocrat circle, government officials, for Russians to consume, despite allegations having been shown the door independently/coherently. By the way, you don't see similar actions against the Netherlands, Texas, Greece, Argentina, Stockholm, Italy, Mexico — they're not "Nazi regimes" in need of deNazifying cleansing either. UN charter, votes. What others typically want to see with respect to problems is willingness to change, moves toward transparency, showing bona fides goodwill, those sorts of things. And so we're back to the truth of the matter: It mattered/matters less than what you can make people believe. (Suppression and state broadcasts help.) As an aside, homosexuals have been targeted by some of the same people (attempts to create a certain kind of momentum). Right up there with ...
George Bush: 'God told me to end the tyranny in Iraq' (Ewen MacAskill · The Guardian · Oct 7, 2005)
... well, except for the (attempted) land grab.

For that matter, there has been past resentment/animosity between Poland and Ukraine, yet Poles have been quite helpful to Ukrainians in the present crisis. Things change. (Also, I'm sure Poles have little patience with Nazism.) What might the reasons be? — Oct 13, 2022

By intensity of hatred, nations create in themselves the characters they imagine in their enemies. Hence it is that all passionate conflicts result in the interchange of characteristics. — George William Russell

Don't become what you hate. — Akiroq Brost

Passing the buck on, Putin's Russia has been and is in a (dehumanizing) systematic process of creating a Ukraine of more hate, which, in time, I'm sure they would/will use to justify more (given the chance), perhaps with the help of some questionable friends.

The Nazi thing was and is a ruse.

• Fascism Comes to Ukraine -- From Russia
  ^{— Cathy Young · RealClearPolitics · May 21, 2014}
• Auschwitz museum says Russia's war in Ukraine is an 'act of barbarity that will be judged by history'
  ^{— John Haltiwanger · Business Insider · Feb 24, 2022}
• Putin wants to de-Nazify Ukraine — that’s ludicrous, say the country’s Jews
  ^{— Zoya Sheftalovich · POLITICO · Apr 25, 2022}
• Posters appear in Moscow accusing famous Swedes of backing Nazism
  ^{— Reuters · May 6, 2022
  • via Al Jazeera: Posters in Moscow accuse famous Swedes of backing Nazism
  • via US News & World Report: Posters Appear in Moscow Accusing Famous Swedes of Backing Nazism}
• Can Ukraine have a ‘Nazi problem’ with a Jewish president?
  ^{— Shaked Karabelnicoff · Unpacked · May 15, 2022}
• How the Russian Media Spread False Claims About Ukrainian Nazis — graphs attached below
  ^{— Charlie Smart · The New York Times · Jul 2, 2022
  • archived Jul 3, 2022}
• Putin’s Abuse of History: Ukrainian ‘Nazis’, ‘Genocide’, and a Fake Threat Scenario
  ^{— Grzegorz Rossoliński-Liebe, Bastiaan Willems · The Journal of Slavic Military Studies · Jul 6, 2022}
• Ukraine commits genocide on Russians: the term “genocide” in Russian propaganda
  ^{— Egbert Fortuin · Russian Linguistics · Sep 7, 2022}
• In the Security Council, the Russians declared that Ukraine needs "desatanization" because "hundreds of sects are active in our country." This is what the assistant secretary, Aleksei Pavlov, says. Denazification and demilitarization in the past, friends? Now desatanization! :D
  ^{— Oleksiy Goncharenko · Oct 25, 2022}
• List of neo-Nazi organizations
  ^{— Wikipedia}
• Racism by country
  ^{— Wikipedia}

Yet, officials keep repeating the Nazi thing, seemingly also oblivious to carrying some amount of hypocrisy. As mentioned before, have some parallels to the Sudetenland crisis (≈ 1938). The consequences come through as serious enough (to me).





What else might be a ruse? The (supposed) existential threat to Russia? ...?

As seen on Russian TV, posted by Julia Davis (Nov 19, 2022)

These retaliatory strikes - and they are retaliatory... It's an expression of our hatred, our holy hatred. They'll be sitting without gas, without light and without everything else. If the Kyiv regime chose the path of war criminals, they have to freeze and rot over there. Regular people have to take to the streets and put an end to Zelenskyy's Nazi regime. — Boris Chernyshov

There is no uprising, when it seems there should be. [...] Zelenskyy fits all the criteria of a terrorist. You remember him being compared to Al-Qaeda, bin Laden - his fate is the same. — Vladimir Oleynik

Where are the revolts? We don't see any revolts. [...] With respect to our strikes, our strikes should continue. [...] One way or another, this contributes to our victory. For us, victory is absolutely necessary. Any negotiations, if they suddenly start with the Ukrainian side, these negotiations won't end well for us. On the other side, there is not a single person that could be trusted by the Russian government and the Russian people. Destruction of our nation is the sole reason for their existence. They openly talk about it. We can overcome this situation only through strength. — Roman Babayan

Another posted by Julia Davis (Nov 19, 2022)

We don't need to liberate anyone over there. We need to take what's ours. — Dmitry Steshin

So, this stuff is broadcast throughout Russia. They're aware of the destruction, and call for an expansion. Government official still calling them Nazis. ... If this is what passes as The Word in Russia, then no wonder peace seems elusive. "Existential threat." Land grab. Submission.

The true anarchist is always outnumbered.
Will it be by organized thugs or a democratic majority?

^{Of course, democracy is always in danger. Say, if a majority picks a thug that removes democracy. I'd think, though, in that case, that society might already be on a trajectory for ruin. Otherwise, democracies tend to illegalize (organized) thugs.}

@NOS4A2, you might be interested in Christiania, which can variously be seen as a social experiment, a sort of anarchist community, or whatever.

Fist Zelensky Larps as a NATO member claiming an "attack on collective security", as if Ukraine is part of some collective. — boethius

"Collective" is a strong word in political analysis, and Zelensky is clearly using it in exactly that very strong way of a collective strong enough to act in common military defence. "Collective security is under attack" is Zelensky's words. — boethius

Well, NATO is about "collective defence" (that's the phrase they use).
I think, though, Zelenskyy also wanted to put forth that Putin's Russia poses a threat to others, and to unify efforts (Didzis Nestro and others have also aired unease). After all, Putin and compadres have been talking about dire threats to Russia for a while (it's Putin against a couple or so continents), to the point of justification to wage war.
It's that kind of wretched environment. Threats take stage, regardless of technical semantics of "collective". :/

Mr Zelenskyy acquired a bit of PTSD? Bombs keeping him up at night? — ... maybe ...

‘Tyranny and turmoil’ in Russian invasion, US defense secretary says
^{— Rob Gillies · AP · Military Times · Nov 20, 2022}

Autocrats, he said, have been taking notes — both military and diplomatic — on how the war has unfolded and could rip pages out of Russian President Vladimir Putin's playbook in the future. — Murray Brewster · CBC News · Nov 19, 2022

Going by ...

Putin's Covert Conscription Will Flood 'Overburdened' Russian Forces: ISW
^{— Brendan Cole · Newsweek · Nov 19, 2022}

... Putin's team is moving to war on. From the looks of it, either their losses are higher than what they report, or they have further war plans of sorts. Expansion? Maybe they just aim to flood whatever occupied regions with Russians in uniforms? Starting to look like Putin's Russia is becoming an increased threat to others, which would be bad news.
Meanwhile, ☢ crap in North Korea. :/

Some entertaining stories in there, and some not so entertaining:

Disinformation in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
^{— Wikipedia}

Steven Seagal joined the war? Can't lose then. Unless Chuck Norris...
"The Ghost of Kyiv" seems more standard, if you will. The elusive legendary superhero.
Then there are the weapons with blood magick and the Satanic seals. Scary stuff.

The fake fact-checks are a bit more inventive.

Mr Zelenskyy acquired a bit of PTSD? Bombs keeping him up at night?

October–November 2022 nationwide missile strikes on Ukraine
^{— Wikipedia}

They might've run low on kamikaze drones.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 17
^{— Hird, Bailey, Klepanchuk, Kagan · Critical Threats · Nov 17, 2022}

The bombings are "cheap" in a way. Go set up gear, push buttons, go for lunch, check the news, repeat. Defense is more tedious. Take'm down aggressively. (Whether that'd frustrate/amuse the Kremlin or not.) On another note, maybe someone implemented the drone swarm concept and is good to do a run?

Putin’s generals preparing for more Ukrainian ‘breakthroughs’, says UK
^{— Rachael Burford · Evening Standard · Nov 18, 2022}

Digging in. Land grab. (Or attempted anyway.)


^{↑ Source}

, yeah, the mercs have a bad rep (and there are a few extremists in those circles). If Izium and Bucha are indicative... :/

, I doubt things would be (or are) so black'n'white for involved parties.

For example, it seems unlikely that an attack on the occupiers would go ahead and level Melitopol, despite Russian troop concentrations. Too many civilians, maybe too much infrastructure or whatever.

Also seems unlikely that anyone would be marching on Moscow (or flying). A good many things would precede anything like that.

But maybe you're right.

I must possess all, or I possess nothing! — Skeletor

Quite a dramatic title, derived from a book by Mikhail Zygar.
The article isn't quite so dramatic, though.
Maybe mostly for Russians (in Russia) to check.

The Russian Empire Must Die
^{— Anne Applebaum · The Atlantic · Nov 14, 2022}

EU Defence Review Calls for Greater European Cooperation to Match Defence Spending Increases
^{— EDA · Nov 15, 2022}

The EU isn't sufficiently organized in this respect. Maybe some day? NATO it is, until then, I guess.

After all, send a large NATO coalition to carpet bomb the Russian military, then the war would be over. — Manuel

A bit drastic. :)
I'm guessing NATO/whoever aren't doing much because of unpredictability, risk, that stuff.
A no-fly zone still wouldn't force Putin to start nuking, though.

Besides, if they did, then that'd likely end up worse for Russia(ns) anyway. — comment · Nov 17, 2022

On another note, we don't really know all that much about what goes on in Russia. Whatever shows up may give hints.

Russia's economy has finally fallen into recession, 8 months after it invaded Ukraine
^{— Huileng Tan · Business Insider · Nov 17, 2022}
Putin reforms Russia’s Human Rights Council and puts commander in charge of military operations in Ukraine
^{— Daniel Stewart · News360 · Nov 17, 2022}

Effects of sanctions?

take the wretched bombs out already, aggressively, throughout, whether it takes lots or more or special or expensive tech or not — jorndoe

NASAMS air defense system have 100% success rate in Ukraine- Pentagon chief
^{— Reuters · Nov 16, 2022}
Pentagon chief: NASAMS intercept all Russian missiles in Ukraine
^{— The Kyiv Independent · Nov 16, 2022}
U.S. NASAMS Having 100% Success Rate in Stopping Russian Missiles: Pentagon
^{— Newsweek · Nov 17, 2022}

:up:

Better stop shooting down missiles and kamikaze drones then — jorndoe

Yes — Isaac

Can't tell if trolling or not. Choosing between downing incoming bombs and letting them fall isn't much of a choice. (NASAMS can help, too. :up:) Could always try to calculate (expected) numerical differences I guess; there is a fair amount of data to go by:

The Ukraine war in maps | Russia launches largest missile attack of the conflict against key infrastructure
^{— Javier Galán, Mariano Zafra · EL PAÍS · Nov 16, 2022}

Because this would force Russia to go nuclear — Manuel

They wouldn't be forced to start nuking. Besides, if they did, then that'd likely end up worse for Russia(ns) anyway. They'd still have decisions to make.

Looks like Zelenskyy blundered horribly. And is getting a lot of attention for that. (Had to happen sooner or later? No re-election for Mr Zelenskyy (perhaps). If NATO is going to retaliate, I'd suggest starting with the east Kherson oblast. :grin:)

Oil depot in Russia’s Oryol Region attacked by drone
^{— TASS · Nov 16, 2022}

Suspected drone hits oil depot in Russia's Oryol, officials say
^{— Reuters · Nov 16, 2022}

Hmm... Another stray? Or not.



Elsewhere ...

The Ukraine war in maps | Russia launches largest missile attack of the conflict against key infrastructure
^{— Javier Galán, Mariano Zafra · EL PAÍS · Nov 16, 2022}

:fire:

Agency entirely dependent on the weapons of others, isn't agency. And pointing out the influence the US has over this conflict is hardly anti-American, it's realistic. — Benkei

They still have decisions to make, that's what agents do.
Putin's decisions, on the other hand, are kind of a prerequisite here, "influence" being invasion bombing annexations re-culturation whatever, it's not like others can just choose for those things to not go on.
As it stands, the US is definitely also an influence, and NATO, the EU, China (yaay), ...
I guess what's been seen here and there, is that these things have been used as a springboard for haters, US-haters especially, and that's when they blame the US for all, the invasion bombing annexations re-culturation whatever (the constellations?), a diversion often enough playing right into Putin's hands (and their propaganda) by the way. :down: The US ain't the center of the world.

Meanwhile ...

Power outages in Moldova after Russian strikes in Ukraine
^{— Cristian Jardan, Stephen McGrath · AP News · Nov 15, 2022}

Just cutting "successful" Russian bombing in half would help, taking out 92 of 100 better, ...

We are working calmly and in a very calm manner — Andrzej Duda · Nov 16, 2022

Shooting them down literally did kill someone (two someone's). That's the entire point. — Isaac

Better stop shooting down missiles and kamikaze drones then

Hmm ... Russia(ns) + Africa(ns)?

How Putin prepared for sanctions with tonnes of African gold
^{— Tom Collins · The Telegraph · Mar 3, 2022}

Will Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Impact the Central African Republic?
^{— Nosmot Gbadamosi · Foreign Policy · Apr 6, 2022}

Analysis: The curious case of Russia in Central African Republic
^{— Bram Posthumus · Al Jazeera · May 20, 2022}

Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin’s war effort in Ukraine
^{— CNN · Jul 29, 2022}

Leader of Central African Republic tells Putin he intends to attend Russia-Africa summit
^{— TASS · Nov 11, 2022}

Vladimir Putin Stashes Billions In Central Africa In Preparation To Flee Moscow In Case Of Emergency 'Evacuation' | Via MSN
^{— Haley Gunn · RadarOnline · Nov 15, 2022}

For that last article, it seems unlikely (to me) that Putin et al think they'd be left alone in Africa.
News and a bit of fake news? Don't know.
Makes for a cool story, though.

Personally, I think Putin + team should annex the Sea of Tranquility.
Resources free for the grabbing and no Ukrainians in the way.
Would also give them a way to get away from it all.

https://www.dw.com/en/russian-missiles-cross-into-nato-member-poland-report/a-63770954
shit hitting the fan? — neomac

Now this explosion in Poland. Right before winter.
Cool heads must prevail. — Manuel

I say just take the wretched bombs out already, aggressively, throughout, whether it takes lots or more or special or expensive tech or not.
They've been wreaking destruction for a long time and it's apparently spilling over.
It's not like shooting them down is going to kill anyone, at least that's very unlikely, rather the opposite.
Yep, keep heads cool, NATO shouldn't just retaliate.

Rumors on the street will have it that Melitopol is sort of being turned into a (Russian) military base. I suppose there is a strategic importance here.

Russia launches heavy air strikes across Ukraine as G20 leaders meet
^{— Wilhelmine Preussen; POLITICO; Nov 15, 2022}

On and on they go, bombing destroying ... Apparently, they're not expecting to pay repairs. I'd hold them to that, though. The latest conditions from the Ukrainians ( :up:, Nov 15, 2022) don't mention that, not directly anyway.

:up:

Still, the Chinese leader, who before the war referred to Putin as his best friend, notably stopped short of asking Russia to withdraw, a key demand for Ukraine and its Western backers. — China’s Xi warns Putin not to use nuclear arms in Ukraine · Stuart Lau · POLITICO · Nov 4, 2022

I'm guessing the Taiwan situation plays a role.

We cannot afford any further escalation — Li Keqiang

We have agreed that threatening nuclear attacks is irresponsible and dangerous. I have told President Xi the importance for China to exert its influence on Russia. — Olaf Scholz

Yaay :up:

OK, enough mockery :D At least they have humor

Nov 10, 2022

Nov 12, 2022

Nov 13, 2022