Comments

  • European or Global Crisis?
    I think Trump will organize a yalta-like moment where he sits down with Putin and maybe XI and/or Modi too, [...]ChatteringMonkey

    Do you think he'll continue to have enough domestic support?
    At the moment, it seems to be going down among the general population and officials.
    When asked, some of Trump's voters wanted a cultural revolution in the US, "anti-woke", against homosexual marriage, etc, not an alliance with Putin.
    Some fans don't care much either way about much of anything, but just want Trump; I'm guessing they're a (small) minority.

    Maybe there's also a question of what Vance might do, and/or Johnson/others.

    Quite a difference:

    Jan 6, 2021 - Capitol Building in Washington DC - against election
    74pvhtjkuobsee2n.jpg

    Mar 1, 2025 - Times Square in New York - for Ukraine
    kx3swmyp82u6qdjm.jpg
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    , Europe comes in snack-sized bites, though, as far as Putin is concerned.
    Mounting an effective counter is challenging.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    Trump and Vance's assault on Zelenskyy is roughly copied from Lavrov's stated sentiment towards Ukraine in 2024. The alignment seems clear enough anyway. Trump and Vance were "speaking Kremlin", well, I guess that part was clear enough.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Only 15.7% of Americans make that much. 57% of Americans make that or less.frank

    And now there seems to be a lot more without a job, thanks to you-know-who.

    I suppose some might be replaced with AI systems, too.

    Then there are tariff wars, raising prices further, thanks to you-know-who.

    EDIT: that rhymed :D
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    The first ever Roman fire brigade was created by Marcus Licinius Crassus. Fires were almost a daily occurrence in Rome, and Crassus took advantage of the fact that Rome had no fire department, by creating his own brigade—500 men strong—which rushed to burning buildings at the first cry of alarm. Upon arriving at the scene, however, the firefighters did nothing while Crassus offered to buy the burning building from the distressed property owner, at a miserable price. If the owner agreed to sell the property, his men would put out the fire; if the owner refused, then they would simply let the structure burn to the ground. After buying many properties this way, he rebuilt them, and often leased the properties to their original owners or new tenants.Firefighting (Wikipedia)

    » crass
  • European or Global Crisis?
    , they felt threatened by any loss of control over Ukraine, sovereign nations be damned. You can go over the evidence yourself. Since then, two new NATO members, Europe on a rearmament path, ...
  • European or Global Crisis?
    What it needed was to not have a US-vasal state on its border. So open up diplomacy with Russia, agree to neutrality of Ukraine and end the war. If the US leaves Europe as it plans to do, a lot of the tension will go away... Russia felt threathend by the US, not that much by Europe itself.ChatteringMonkey

    (Feb 19, 2025) The Kremlin feels threatened by loss of control over Ukraine. NATO talk gave them their excuse.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Ukraine voted for a comedian and they got a president, America voted for a president and got a comedian (a dangerous clown) — Dave Cap
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    , Australia hasn't had tariffs on US imports for a couple of decades. Transparent rhetoric.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Then back to Trump being Trump, as usual...

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XkgoXUyGlHM
    ssu

    I find it puzzling how many still take Trump's word for much of anything.
    Not only believe him but parrot what he says argumentatively.
    Weird.

    The US and Australia signed a free trade agreement in 2005. Australian officials are now negotiating tariffs that Trump wants to impose on them.
    The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement was signed by Trump in 2018.
    If the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act came to Trump's mind, then something's off, otherwise he's just ignorant.
  • The Musk Plutocracy
    :D Poor thing got aborted. (title is easy to misread)

    Grok briefly censored criticism of Musk and Trump. It was blamed on a new hire who hadn't 'fully absorbed' the startup's culture.
    — Effie Webb · Business Insider · Feb 24, 2025

    I suppose, with their track records (here's Trump's) it shouldn't come as a surprise.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Hmm Well, diversification seems attractive these days. (Hence posting in this thread.)

    If Canada Wants a Plan B for Trade, Europe Could Be the Answer
    — Arthur Dennyson Hamdani · The Walrus · Feb 25, 2025

    There's been some chatter about defense as well.

    France convenes second meeting on Ukraine with other Europeans, Canada
    — John Irish, Michel Rose, GV De Clercq · Reuters · Feb 18, 2025
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    , I was just going to suggest that ask the folks in the three Baltic states, the Swedes, Finns, Poles, Ukrainians, ... It's been covered in other threads, though.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    US, Ukraine agree to terms of critical minerals dealNOS4A2

    Now they just have to find a way to get their hands on that good stuff in Donbas.

    Extortion (and on Putin's wishlist):

    Exclusive: US could cut Ukraine's access to Starlink internet services over minerals, say sources
    — Andrea Shalal, Joey Roulette, Marisa Taylor, Idrees Ali, Don Durfee, Dave Gregorio, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Daniel Wallis · Reuters · Feb 22, 2025
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    FYI, here's a chat I had with someone fairly intelligent ("AA"), that I know. I sent them roughly this message (Feb 15, 2025) (names and such removed/replaced):

    AA: you missed everything. And the CIA missed the GOP candidate in Butler PA.
    AA: The main goal is to destroy the Deep State. There's going to be a lot of collateral damage.
    me: Like the state? :smile:
    me: Canada, Greenland, ..., don't want to be enrolled in the US, by the way. Is the alienation part of destroying "the Deep State"? // You know that Xi and Putin are having a field day, yes?
    AA: Yes. One of the main promises was Schedule F, which would destroy many bureaucracies. These agencies over time have suffered capture by the CIA and DNC. They both do good and bad, are slush funds for unapproved spending, fund NGOs which then catalyze coups. // It's time to destroy the state as we know it. A lot of guilty and innocent people will be destroyed in the process.
    me: "he would see this country burn if he could be king of the ashes" // — Varys · https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2178798/characters/nm0384152 // "an evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes" // — someone · https://www.truthorfiction.com/sun-tzu-rule-over-ashes-quote/
    me: so what does Canada / Greenland have to do with any of that?
    AA: It's not the 'nation' that's being burned. It's the Deep State. Trump is extremely pro-nation, a libertarian nationalist. He's anti-other-nations, anti-couping other nations, and old school populist/industrialist/working-man-jobist. // Canada and Greenland are strategic.
    me: Whuzzat mean? Concretely, I mean. // (Then there's Panama, Mexico, Mar-a-Gaza.)
    AA: Canada being a state aids in the oncoming multi-polar world. Both countries would be stronger and more prosperous for it. // Greenland will provide future shipping route, minerals, and a stronger northern position which China and Russia would we weaker due to. // Panama and Mexico are obvious. // Gaza is weird. It's a failed defeated state. The US would have an economic and geopolitical foothold there by rebuilding it along with other Arab nations. The main goal being to unify that area making Iran an uninvited party.
    me: so, annexation?
    AA: territories, states...
    me: Canada and Greenland become parts of the US? // (Or should I read your comments differently)?
    AA: Yes. If the argument can be made.
    me: You don't see any problem here?
    AA: No. I'm a fan of the Monopoly on Violence....because hostile states among us believe in it.
    me: what if you're wrong?
    AA: Those that execute the monopoly on violence find themselves in a state of being wrong, when they over use that argument and other with that same right execute it against them. // At that time a state can as, if losing in a conflict where and when they would have done something differently. // ...keeping in mind the idea of "wrong" and "right" are strategic rather than moral.
    me: what if you're wrong on whatever rationale/assumptions? // A country turning on itself is the supreme victory of adversaries.
    AA: That's what's happening right now in the USA. The USA has been terribly violent (regime change, coups, wars) since WWII. It's people are reassessing how the next 50 years looks and it's more isolationist. So securing the region according to the Munroe Doctrine and preparing for multipolarity is the better pathway.
    me: I meant what if your rationale/assumptions are off? (you've expressed a few here)
    AA: As in "mistakes". It's game theoretical.
    me: well, mistakes with inter/national consequences. (Have you run simulations or something?)
    AA: Making mistakes, not taking risks, .... all of it has consequences. // Of course not. But we may be entering an age wherein AI is making the tough decisions.
    me: What consequences are you seeing? // Say, what if you're off about CIA in general or specifically (above)?
    AA: _ is censoring my discussing this.

    What do you make of it?
    (Though tempting, I haven't brought up any psychological terms.)
  • The Musk Plutocracy
    Conflict of interest?

    Musk/DOGE recommended firing federal workers at

    ▸ FDA, which oversees Neuralink
    ▸ FAA, which oversees SpaceX
    ▸ USAID, which probed Starlink
    ▸ CFPB, which oversees Tesla's financing arm and a potential payment platform on twitter/X
  • Ukraine Crisis
    I'll just note (again), that Europe isn't some monolithic entity.
    The EU is part of Europe, Norway (mature democracy), Hungary (mostly democratic), ..., are parts of thereof.
    Hungary argues with whoever else, Croatia and Serbia are arguing, Slovakia might argue with Germany and France, the UK now hangs out on the side, ... Then there are all kinds of bureaucracy.
    Unlike the US, the EU isn't a country, Europe isn't a country, and has a tediously long history.
    If one expects Europe to have centralized executive powers (like the US), then they have things to learn.
    This sort of "diversity" is exploitable, which is what the Kremlin does.

    A question:
    Is there an underlying assumption by some, that the US has a secretive organization (or the like), that more or less determines policy, across the various administrations?
    If not determines, then otherwise assert strong power to their end behind the scenes?
    Say, over the last three decades? Four? More?
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Let me just put on a tinfoil hat for a moment.

    The US Vice President, J D Vance, is a fan of Curtis Yarvin, who is anti-democracy, and coined "RAGE" (Retire All Government Employees), Dark Enlightenment, and all that. This coincides somewhat with Trump's Schedule F, and some of Musk/DOGE's heavy-handed activities. Vance is 2nd in line for the US Presidency.

    The US Speaker, Mike Johnson, is a young Earth creationist, holding that the Earth is about 6000 years old (actually the universe is about that age, too). The private/quiet Johnson can be described as a Christian nationalist, and has been working on a number of related projects. It's the Bible first (his reading thereof), plus whatever fringe, but he's not stupid. In most democracies, he wouldn't have much chance of such a high political position. Johnson is 3rd in line for the US Presidency.

    Maybe the Secret Service should take extra care to keep Trump safe?

    OK, tossing the tinfoil hat now. All better.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , FYI, I updated an old post (Feb 15, 2025); the dictator (illegitimate president) thing originates at the Kremlin.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Clever. :)

    Zelenskyy says he would step down if Ukraine can join NATO, blasts Trump mineral pitch
    — Cybele Mayes-Osterman · USA TODAY · Feb 23, 2025
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Hill spoke at the Helsinki Commission 22 days before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine:

    Why Putin Invaded Ukraine: A Crisis Manufactured to Rewrite the Global Order | Fiona Hill on 2/2/22
    — Helsinki Commission · Nov 13, 2024 · 13m:23s


    Hilton interviewed Hill in 2023:

    Why Trump befriended Putin | The life and philosophy of Fiona Hill
    — The Institute of Art and Ideas · Oct 19, 2023 · 11m:13s
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    LIVE on the Senate Floor
    — Senator Bernie Sanders · Feb 20, 2025 · 21m:40s



    Sanders is the real deal, genuine. And he's fine with me disagreeing with whatever policy he'd like.

    A couple of thousand years ago, the first Roman emperor, Augustus, started turning the Republic into an empire. He told Romans he was the only one who could save Rome, and they believed him; he kicked off an imperial cult. A couple hundred years later, under Commodus, the Pax Romana ended, and the Republic had become an autocracy at the whims of the emperor.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , if cooperating sufficiently, Europe can deal with Putin (keeping it out of NATO offices), including in Ukraine.

    Except:

    Europe can easily get it's conventional gear to defend itself, but what is lacking is the nuclear balancessu

    There's also a matter of US intelligence.

    Either way, European cooperation, sooner rather than later, seems the way to go.
  • European or Global Crisis?
    So has Vance.... It's easy to say no when your self-interest is not at stake.Vera Mont

    :up: Poilievre is susceptible enough
  • European or Global Crisis?
    , in campaigning and otherwise, Poilievre is too much into loud political mudslinging at others, and seeking applause.
    Like a primary modus operandi of dragging others/opponents down with it ("beating them with experience"); not exactly a role model, and he's seemingly not going that way.
    I'm not getting an impression of bona fides concern, trustworthiness, strength/ability to stand up to others, including foreign.
    The politics, which should be the topic I suppose, are the usual these days, some go "left", some go "right", ..., shopping at the political supermarket.
    Maybe "nuisance" wasn't the right word, apologies for that.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    hah I thought this was a joke, but apparently not :D

    ‘LONG LIVE THE KING’: Trump increasingly embraces monarchical imagery
    — Danny Nguyen · POLITICO · Feb 19, 2025

    "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!" –President Donald J. Trump (— The White House · twitter/x · Feb 19, 2025)

    Think he'll declare himself Jesus returned, too?
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    Not a chancefrank

    I'm Jutlandian and have lived in Canuckia for a couple of decades.
    I can tell you with some confidence that Trump has, in my experience, insignificant support.
    Granted, that's not so much about the US in general, it's about Trump, applying as he's doing his thing.
    Lists of what you might not want to buy have been distributed, which isn't something I've seen before.
    Chance? Yep. Redirecting to Europe has already been discussed. But we'll see.

    Trump calls Canada “serious contender” to become 51st US state (— Global News · Feb 13, 2025 · 1m:40s)

    In general, the Canucks have been growing tired of the noise and crap for some time.

    e9znrru022h5x7k0.png
  • European or Global Crisis?
    , even though he's a nuisance, hasn't Poilievre expressed a "No" to Trump?
  • European or Global Crisis?
    So do I. But they also have to take a broader view and team up with pro-democratic factions in Asia, Africa and South America.Vera Mont

    And North America (Canada). ;)

    I'm guessing things would have to keep up pace with Trumpistan, though, at least in some respects.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Elon Musk says journalists 'deserve a long prison sentence' as spat with CBS 60 Minutes continues
    — Reanna Smith · Irish Star · Feb 18, 2025

    Discredit, take over, or remove? More Putinism?
    Well, all critique is "TDS", "fake news", "woke" or whatever cultural trend they dislike today, right?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    (from an earlier comment, Sep 10, 2024, evidence-collection and observations continue)

    NATO was an excuse

    Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and status as a country, was established in 1991 more or less throughout the world. That was a couple of years after the Berlin Wall came down. Changes were in the air.

    The relationship between Ukraine and NATO goes back to Ukraine’s independence: increased cooperation in 1994, 1997, 2002, 2005; decreased 2010; increased 2014, 2018; U-turn 2022; back again 2022; …

    Sometime before 2009, the Kremlin circle (ex-KGB and the like) decided that it would be intolerable to lose control over Crimea, and perhaps lose empowering influence on Ukraine, something along those lines, and that they would need a land bridge to whatever they hence might have to grab. A new or extended Kharkiv Pact wouldn’t do, for example. Couldn’t be left to an independent country to decide.

    And that uncompromising decision marked, and set, the — henceforth seemingly inevitable — collision course of which we’ve seen the results. Likely not an overnight decision, more like an irredentist, “entitled”, “ownership”, or revanchist sentiment, possibly since the Cold War in those circles.

    It’s a thread throughout (elsewhere, 2013, 2018, 2021, 2024).

    Ukraine wrestling free from the dominating, northern neighbor, wouldn’t be easy — isn’t easy. And their NATO aspirations were, perhaps predictably (2022, 2022), a useful excuse for the Kremlin to attack/invade, (pseudo-)annex (2014, 2022), assimilate, regardless of Ukraine’s sovereignty. If their rationale was merely NATO, then what was all this about, and what was accomplished? Besides, something similar would apply to any strong defence that Ukraine would seek membership of. NATO was the most likely around to get in the way of unimpeded Russian military (or Russification) actions, and the Kremlin had years to prepare. We can now conclude that the aspirations were justified.

    Quoting Wikipedia, which has the requisite references, here’s what the Ukrainians want(ed):

    Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations, and the influence of oligarchs.Euromaidan (2013-2014)
    Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of Russia and oligarchs, police brutality, human rights violations, and repressive anti-protest laws.Revolution of Dignity (2014)

    Abandoning the Ukrainians would have the faint whiff of cowardice, broken promises, appeasement and encouragement of the attacker, more so if echoing their lines (2022, 2022) — free expansion of non-democracy.
  • European or Global Crisis?
    I said it on behalf of my country, to Trump. In semi-jocular response to jorndoe's suggestion that we vote in their elections. Which, as a single state, would only give us 50 seats in Congress - 20-30 of them likely conservative - and two in the Senate. Not much of a bargain in return for our human rights, legal system, foreign policy, health care, oil, bauxite, water and lumber.Vera Mont

    Sorry, I just meant in that one election, and, given the campaign trails, and evidence that has since come about, I'd expect most Canucks (by far) to not vote P01135809. I was sort of joking, too. (Each province might be represented as a state?)
  • European or Global Crisis?
    Pistorius wasn't so happy with Vance:

    I am incandescent with rage right now. I feel sick to the stomach. A US Vice President stood today on the soil of where so many Americans gave their lives to defeat fascism in Europe. He delivered a disgraceful speech that spat on their graves. [...]Truth Matters · Feb 14, 2025 · 3m:39s

    Orlins is worried:

    Trump’s post is a direct threat to the rule of law. This is a constitutional crisis in the making. Stay vigilant.Eliza Orlins · Feb 16, 2025 · 1m:10s
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    , I'll just go ahead and add some observations.

    In 1939, Stalin and Hitler made a deal.
    In 2025, Lavrov and Rubio met, and Putin and Trump made a deal. (← but I'm no prophet, so let's see)

    (More plain lying to everyone's faces, and no US politicians/leaders call'em out, except so-called "fake news"?)

    Meanwhile, Putin and Trump's chummy dealings don't mention/address Russian ships roaming northern waters, so Canada and Greenland need US protection from them.

    Many sellouts, much spinelessness, cowardice, hypocrisy, all that.

    , you just want all of them/it to go away, right? Countries, states, laws, ... And any tidbit that can somehow be cast negatively (an exercise in rhetoric) is hence aired to that end? :D
  • European or Global Crisis?
    If P01135809 keeps bullying Canada to become part of the US, then I suggest Canadian voters first be allowed to vote on the US candidates from the last US election, even though it's late. ;) Add the new votes to those previously found, determine election winner, done. Think the current administration would accept?

    Trump Says He’s Serious About Wanting Canada to Become 51st U.S. State
    — Jill Colvin, Darlene Superville · TIME, AP · Feb 9, 2025
  • European or Global Crisis?
    European leaders gather for an emergency meeting after Trump snub
    — Raf Casert, Sylvie Corbet, Dusan Stojanovic, Vanessa Gera, Justin Spike · AP via Defense News · Feb 17, 2025

    Looks like what they don't say out loud (and shouldn't), is that P01135809 + team first alienated friends and allies, then virtually stabbed them in the back, befriended authoritarians that P01135809 can't handle anyway (Putin is smarter, unfortunately). I'm sure P01135809 and Musk (rich folks) will be fine, whereas other Americans might find eggs pricey, while rambling on about "wokeness" or whatever cultural trend they dislike.

    I'd suggest Canada, and maybe others, also are invited to a subsequent meeting (following the above I mean). But don't wait too long. P01135809 (and Putin) apparently ain't.

    , can GPT combine more factors? In a way that's meaningful?
  • European or Global Crisis?
    Brought up in jest earlier (Feb 13, 2025) and by

    I think that we should ditch the geographical locations and look more towards national values. Like a EU but globally, for stable democracies who operate on human rights.Christoffer

    Like a defense alliance of democracies or something? Hey, I'm warming to the idea.

    In terms of defense, it could be modeled somewhat after NATO, and otherwise maybe somewhat after the EU (also 1789, 1948). Ehh or whatever.

    From a military-strategic perspective, it's harder to secure scattered regions, though reconnaissance/observation would be good, yet, surely the values are worth standing up for, human rights, civil liberties, various freedoms and protections, so this stuff would be prerequisites. Things like (nuclear) deterrence would be needed.

    Some candidates alphabetically: maybe Argentina, Australia, maybe Botswana, Canada, maybe Chile, maybe Costa Rica, some European countries, Iceland, maybe India, Japan, New Zealand, maybe Singapore, maybe South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, maybe Ukraine after some further reforms, Uruguay, some US states, some ocean countries, ... (wicked cooperative)

    In absence of "an outside threat", it's going to be difficult to get those together. What about mutual economic support, close to free trade, close to free migration (or visas), ...?
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Misinformation and “false beliefs” is not a threat, never has beenNOS4A2

    History tells a different story.