I'm thinking that scientific methodologies are a means for models to converge on evidence/observations.
The models are revisable/adjustable and falsifiable (in principle always tentative/provisional).
So, in a way, sufficiently stabilized/usable models become parts of scientific theories, where "sufficiently" means within some domain of applicability or category of evidence/observations.
That may seem overly depreciative/critical, yet science remains the single most successful epistemic endeavor in all of human history bar none, and doesn't carry any promise of omniscience — the forums depend on science.
Doesn't science more or less take the role of "justified" in knowledge as justified true belief?

, there are plenty of differences.
^{(Say, the US didn't try to do away with Nihongo, either.)}
So?

That's geopolitics for you. This isn't your average lefty echo chamber where terms like 'victim blaming' are used non-facetiously. — Tzeentch

Could an Istanbul Deal Have Brought Peace?
^{— Andreas Umland · Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies · Jun 24, 2024}

Are the Russians trembling now that Finland and Sweden joined NATO? Maybe the Kremlin circle is trembling, though it's of a different kind. — Aug 11, 2024

Learned indifference
^{— Kirill Martynov · Novaya Gazeta Europe · Jul 20, 2024}
(the original report, "We Have to Live Somehow" (Jul 8, 2024), by the Public Sociology Laboratory is in Russian)

Apparently, the Russians' concerns are different than the Kremlin circle's "existential threat". The new NATO joiners don't seem to have made much difference.

I'll venture to guess that the Kremlin's concern is simple enough or otherwise straightforward: Control over (parts of) Ukraine, backed by geo-political-power-military aspirations (perhaps with a sense of entitlement/ownership) — well, something along those lines. For example, they've more or less had free reins concerning Crimea, despite it being part of Ukraine. Attempts to change conditions on Ukraine's part or potential loss of control on the Kremlin's part could then elicit whatever response from the Kremlin, with little mind to legalities (or involved parties), and warring is a "natural solution" for them. Russia-wide, at least many are more likely to see the Ukrainians as old southwestern friends with cool vacation spots. Add, say, Putinian indignation with the EU for not swiftly extending cooperation without reservation. Putin's sentiment towards Ukrainian EU membership has gone here and there (the EU isn't military). Thus, in a way, since Ukraine is a sovereign country, the Kremlin's attitudes themselves were already on a collision course from early on.

At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities – I would like to emphasise this – began by building their statehood on the negation of everything that united us, trying to distort the mentality and historical memory of millions of people, of entire generations living in Ukraine. It is not surprising that Ukrainian society was faced with the rise of far-right nationalism, which rapidly developed into aggressive Russophobia and neo-Nazism. This resulted in the participation of Ukrainian nationalists and neo-Nazis in the terrorist groups in the North Caucasus and the increasingly loud territorial claims to Russia.

Meanwhile, the so-called civilised world, which our Western colleagues proclaimed themselves the only representatives of, prefers not to see this, as if this horror and genocide, which almost 4 million people are facing, do not exist. But they do exist and only because these people did not agree with the West-supported coup in Ukraine in 2014 and opposed the transition towards the Neanderthal and aggressive nationalism and neo-Nazism which have been elevated in Ukraine to the rank of national policy. They are fighting for their elementary right to live on their own land, to speak their own language, and to preserve their culture and traditions. — Address by the President of the Russian Federation · The Kremlin, Moscow · Feb 21, 2022

Kiev is not a victim. It made its choices, and carries the responsibility for the consequences. — Tzeentch

(Who's being bombed again?)
I guess, by such logic, Japan had Hiroshima and Nagasaki ☢ coming, some 79 years ago (with a difference of not being a land grab). "That’s geopolitics for you."
Anyway, I thought you blamed the US for it all.

:up:
Without some sort of data expiry, the space usage will keep growing

I've been getting some "502 Bad Gateway" errors lately.
Also a "System error. Please contact us for assistance." today.
Are the forums under heavy load?

, going old school, though not that old school

Hildegard von Bingen, O vis aeternitatis, Liber Scivias (Sequentia · 8m:12s)

, the thread established way back that "Everyone bad". ;)

, right, don't forget to blame the victims for looking to democracy rights transparency freedom (handy, so as to maintain a narrative).
Are the Russians trembling now that Finland and Sweden joined NATO? Maybe the Kremlin circle is trembling, though it's of a different kind.
The EU presents a carrot, the Kremlin presents a stick, the Ukrainians have chosen.


Ukraine and Russia trade accusations over fire at occupied nuclear plant
^{— Tom Balmforth, Yuliia Dysa, Andrew Cawthorne, Josie Kao · Reuters · Aug 11, 2024}
Fire at cooling tower of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
^{— AFP · Aug 11, 2024}

Whatever is going on, it would be reassuring if the on-site IAEA personnel had done a close inspection and reported. (Or...was it a CIA plot?)

EDIT: links and such

, alternatively, (once again) you deny Ukrainian agency, presuppose that it's not that they want democracy rights transparency freedom and wrestle free from the dominating (regressive opaque authoritarian oppressive) neighbor, joining Estonia Latvia Lithuania Finland Sweden Netherlands et al (and the EU), and take the opportunity to point (conspiracy-alike) fingers at the evil US instead. Incidentally, you're echoing what came out of the Kremlin.^{(also check here, here, here)}

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of Russia and oligarchs, police brutality, human rights violations,^(33)(34) and repressive anti-protest laws.⁽³³⁾ — Revolution of Dignity

Maybe return once Estonia Latvia Lithuania Finland Sweden Netherlands et al cancel their NATO memberships? — Aug 11, 2024

, I think most readers know your vassal stories by now.
By the way, democracy rights transparency freedom -versus- regression opacity authoritarianism oppression, has come up a few times in the thread (plus proliferation thereof).
Maybe return once Estonia Latvia Lithuania Finland Sweden Netherlands et al cancel their NATO memberships?

In 2014 it made the critical error of jumping in bed with the US. — Tzeentch

Here's what they wanted (again):

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations,⁽⁹¹⁾ and the influence of oligarchs.⁽⁹²⁾ — Euromaidan

I vaguely remember reading about some old-school Donbas separatists. They had this old dream of their own country (well, or two), that they could craft on a path of their own. Not on offer from the Kremlin, either.

In lesser news, Kadyrov received "a Nobel prize", but then his troops were accused of betraying Putin. Oh well, can't win'em all.
Meanwhile, blasting civilians (again) seems an unusual way of "liberating" them. Wouldn't the invading forces expect a negative attitude towards them?

NATO membership wouldn't constitute independence — Tzeentch

Not independence from NATO, no. (Unless they were to cancel such a membership again.)
The Baltics have (happily) chosen, Finland and Sweden freely chose, the Moldovans are jittery.
You can't speak of independence, without the independence for them to choose.

Meanwhile in other news ^{(tass, independent)}, Ksenia Karelina, who donated fifty-one US dollars and eighty cents to Razom in February two years ago, awaits sentencing. If the prosecutors have their way, she'll face years in prison.
Reportedly ^(forbes), the Ukrainian skies have been seeing old Yak-52 propellers with shotgun-wielding hangers-on chasing drones.

If Ukraine is neutral, and the West shows a sincere interest in peace, I think the Russians could have possibly been persuaded to agree to some sort of special status for Crimea.

But that was back then. Today it is unthinkable they would give back Crimea and the landbridge that leads to it. — Tzeentch

Possible, sure, maybe. Plausible, no. Would have handed the keys back to Kyiv, no, not likely.

DeNazification is their word, one they've been using consistently, and associates with the "Great Patriotic War". (Ukraine generally replaced "Great Patriotic War" with "Second World War" around 2015.) They've accused Ukraine of Nazi rule, and, they say, mean to deNazify Kyiv. Well...Mariupol first. You'll find attempts to justify its use in the thread. But, taking some liberties with your comment, you're right that their rhetoric is "alternate world" ridiculous, though it goes with their irredentist genocide⁶⁷ revanchist rhetoric. Other than that, apologetics (naïveté no good).

, not counting color/blind people, our interaction with our common environment has sufficiently similar results, that become identifiable experiences to each of us.
I suppose it's analogous to the digestion example — when we eat apples, roughly the same reliably happens, they're dissolved into whatever and absorbed by the stomach, transported around the body, etc (unless someone has an apple allergy), and we're less hungry. We (may) learn to associate pain with putting a hand on the hot stove, and hence (better) learn to identify/recognize hot stoves.
Some earlier babbling: 2023Mar2 (image), 2024Aug2, 2024Aug6
(I'm not sure "private" is quite the right word here, we're chatting about them intelligibly after all, but know what you mean.)

@frank, I don't think "Is my red your red?" can make much sense, since the experiences are localized occurrences, a bit like "Is my apple digestion your apple digestion?" also is a weird question.
Maybe Wittgenstein's approach is more fruitful, "The apple is red" attains meaning by common use, it's how we learn to identify red, whatever exactly it all is.

Greenland ice takes up what would otherwise contribute markedly to sea levels. These folk examined interim deglaciation during the Pleistocene, from when the temperature was ≈ 2-3°C above pre-industrial.

Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times
^{— Bierman, Mastro, Peteet, Corbett, Steig, Halsted, Caffee, Hidy, Balco, Bennike, Rock · PNAS · Aug 5, 2024}

Greenland was ≈ 1-10°C in July, largely ice-free tundra. Anyway, anthropogenic climate change could end up seeing some wicked rises in sea levels.

, maybe my wording should have been different/clearer (the links could help).

Do you suppose that the Kremlin would have handed (what they (formally) consider³) a piece of Russia over to Kyiv at that time², after 8 years of efforts¹? Perhaps insist on a new Kharkiv Pact⁴? Didn't Mearsheimer (and Drennan⁵ by the way) argue that Crimea remains a critical geo-political-power-military asset to Russia?
Whatever the case, something here doesn't quite add up.

Wouldn't such a supposition also be an admission of sham³? How might that fare (in Moscow, for one)?

This is why they talk about 'denazification'. They mean ultranationalist militias like the Azov Batallion. — Tzeentch

Hmm. Apologetics to make their (deNazification irredentist genocide⁶⁷ revanchist) stories fit your narrative? Dubious. Specious.

, Crimea¹ then² ...
Do you suppose that the Kremlin would hand (what they now (formally) consider³) a piece of Russia over to Kyiv? Perhaps insist on a new Kharkiv Pact⁴?
Didn't Mearsheimer (and Drennan⁵ by the way) argue that Crimea remains a critical geo-political-power-military asset to Russia?
Whatever the case, something here doesn't quite add up.
And what then of their deNazification irredentist genocide⁶⁷ revanchist rhetoric (again)? For show? Propaganda?
Either way, land grab remains what they're enacting⁸⁹ (factual, non-theoretical/hypothetical).
More things that telling a coherent story would have to account for, well, unless you think there are sort of random acts involved, maybe.

@boethius, given their anti-NATO stories — those they want everyone to hear (and propagate) — what plans exactly is it you think the Kremlin has going for Donbas?
Use it as a mined buffer zone to keep the barbarians at bay? Give Donbas independence? Make it into a new iron curtain?
Well, no, they're trying to gobble Donbas up, switch flags entirely, call it their own, expand Russia, and have employed shamming (and :fire: more) to do so.
And, as explained a few times, that does nothing to fix their supposed NATO-phobia.
They already had a border, call it Ukraine's "red line".
So, do you think they did/didn't (do/don't) know that? (I'll just start out with the simplest coherent explanation.)

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks
^{— T Möller, A E Högner, CF Schleussner et al · Nature · Aug 1, 2024}

Every 0.1°C of warming increases risk, with acceleration above 2.0°C

This one :point: :flower: the flower and the onlooker are both a part of (or "in") the world, by "being-in-the-world" (see Heidegger, [...] — Kizzy

:up: _{(no need to invoke the ol' fella' to talk about the world we're all part of, well, unless ...)}

I guess "it's red" or "it has the property of being red" means it reliably can elicit/cause that (format of) experience/perception to most onlookers under common circumstances? That's how we learn that stuff anyway.

What exactly red is, may be a different question.

Some summery beachy sounds

Imagine we discover an unknown tribe of humans from some remote island. [...] — Richard B

Real-life example: Marie Curie might have lived longer if she could have visualized radiation with a cloud chamber or sonified radiation with a Geiger counter. Instead, it was her later radiation sickness symptoms that gave her the otherwise absent, delayed sensing of the radiation. :/

The mental phenomena is not the cause of us seeing the colors of the fruit, the cause is the addition of the contact lenses. — Richard B

Hmm... So, there's the experience (the perception, qualia), the perceived (the fruit), and whatever is involved in the interaction (including the contact lenses). Could "mental phenomena" and "seeing the colors" be deflated, so they're the same thing? Or, well, for the mental phenomena to occur in this case, we'd first have to see with our eyes, right?

Could we say that the rose and the car have the property of being red since they can elicit/cause that (format of) experience/perception to most onlookers under common circumstances?

The experience/perception isn't "in the" rose, it's part of the onlooker when occurring. And the rose isn't part of (or "in") the onlooker. What "red" are we talking about anyway? :)

I'd start with some, let's say, observations ...

• for hallucinations, imaginary/dream worlds, whatever, the perception and the perceived are the same
• when the perception and the perceived aren't the same, the perceived can be objects

• perceptions are events/processes, temporal, come and go, occur, are interruptible
• objects are spatial, left to right, front to back, movable, locatable, breakable under conservation

• by interaction one can perceive something without becoming the perceived in part or whole

... and take it from there.

(maybe I'm using the verbiage in a non-standard way)

I'm seeing some openings for category mistakes, perhaps depending on verbiage.
Red could be called one format of perception, typically related to objects we hence call red.
Or something like that.

Has synesthesia come up? Phantom pain? Mary's room? :)

Consider


^{(including all kinds of details would make it cumbersome, use charity where in doubt, you know what I mean)}

YY and NN aren't so interesting for this inquiry.

So, what's the worst that could happen in case of NY and YN respectively?
(By "do something" I'm not thinking of everyone committing suicide. :grin:)

As far as I can tell, "We do something about the environment" is generally the most rational (re)action, at least if caring about our children's children.
More importantly, what do you think?

There are posts here (in the thread I mean) that are illegal·outlawed·dangerous in Putin's Russia. No invasion of Russia, like the one of Ukraine, has taken place, nor have such threats been issued.

I don't recall any posts here that are illegal in the Kremlin's assumed adversary countries (but it is 2 or 3 or so continents). German laws against Nazism came to mind, which might be the closest, but not applicable here. Ukraine is in a precarious situation at the moment, which works as a temporary excuse.

That at least should give some indication of what's going on (plus bits and pieces of related past).

^{• United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 (2014)
• Legality of the Russian invasion of Ukraine}

, hang on a sec, so the truth of the matter doesn't factor in (typically contrary to the claims of, say, Shaivists, Zoroastrians, Catholics, Sunnis).
You should come up with a "Healthiness Religion", (implicitly) targeted for such special benefits, perhaps even revisable depending on evidence.
Could take some lessons from, say, Yoga and Hubbard, and perhaps be inviting to (otherwise dehumanized) minority groups.
:up: :wink:

Now creating that deterrence will simply get some people to think that your war-hungry. Well, I'm not. — ssu

Something along those lines has come up before.

can all defense be narrated as offense, can all defensive measures be cast as threats? — Apr 8, 2024

A naïve attitude towards Putin's regressive Russia is, well, not particularly smart, or is a particularly kind of blindness, or whatever. Not going to repeat all evidence already posted. (Besides, you ignore requests to account for whatever observations with your theory.) — Jul 25, 2024

The only blind ones are you oompaloompas I keep wasting my time on. :lol: — Tzeentch

:shrug:

With Principes élémentaires de propagande de guerre (2001), Anne Morelli (1948-) summarized Falsehood in War-Time (1928) by Arthur Ponsonby (1871-1946) (and others):

1. we do not want war
2. the opposite party alone is guilty of war
3. the enemy is inherently evil and resembles the devil
4. we defend a noble cause, not our own interests
5. the enemy commits atrocities on purpose; our mishaps are involuntary
6. the enemy uses forbidden weapons
7. we suffer small losses, those of the enemy are enormous
8. recognized artists and intellectuals back our cause
9. our cause is sacred
10. all who doubt our propaganda are traitors

Some of this stuff stretches back, including the 1^st world war.
Part of the task is to separate true and false statements, im/plausible statements, figure out contexts, "To what end?", (freedom to) point out propaganda, etc.
Looks to me like some of the above apply to whatever party here.
More importantly, what say you?

, can't read that one inquiry, responds to the others? :brow: (won't ≠ can't)

Say, how does your story account for the ...

deNazification, this, sham referenda + swift annexations, this, irredentism — Jul 22, 2024

as mentioned before, what they're doing won't solve their (supposed) NATO-phobia — Jul 22, 2024

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations,⁽⁹¹⁾ and the influence of oligarchs.⁽⁹²⁾ — Euromaidan

...? How does your story stack up against whatever else?


Apple bows to Russian VPN crackdown: What it means for internet freedom (Karah Rucker · Straight Arrow News · Jul 10, 2024 · 2m:31s)

Are you aware of this knee-jerk reaction you seem to have, where every attempt at diplomacy is caricatured as "giving up on everything and doing as Russia wants"?

"Diplomacy is capitulation" I hear you saying, like you're the minister of propaganda in a George Orwell novel. — Tzeentch

When one side issues conditions (declarations/demands/ultimatums masquerading as proposals, which have to already be accepted) — conditions that go against international law and recognized land and borders, instead of demonstrating wanting to come to the talking table to negotiate — then there's no negotiation on the horizon, there's a "Yes" or "No" to those conditions.

At the moment we see no grounds for hope that there will be any positive changes in the foreseeable future. Russia remains open and ready to discuss the most difficult issues at the negotiating table. But not to the detriment of our own interests.
— Dmitry Peskov — Oct 25, 2022

It is completely not feasible. It is not possible to implement this. It’s not realistic and everybody understands this, but at the same time, they say this is the only basis for negotiations. — Sergey Lavrov · Sep 23, 2023

In Ukraine, those who are aggressive towards Russia, and in Europe and in the United States – do they want to negotiate? Let them. But we will do it based on our national interests. We will not give up what is ours.
— Pukin — Dec 19, 2023

A naïve attitude towards Putin's regressive Russia is, well, not particularly smart, or is a particularly kind of blindness, or whatever. Not going to repeat all evidence already posted. (Besides, you ignore requests to account for whatever observations with your theory.)

By "a peculiar turn of events", this mathematics (calculus) has been taken up extensively by physicists (and other scientists), showing that it indeed works to a tee, thereby indirectly giving these mathematical methods empirical support. ;) Cool eh?

:)

once the US starts backing coups in Ukraine — Tzeentch

Ah yes, an evil covert coup by the CIA :D

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations,⁽⁹¹⁾ and the influence of oligarchs.⁽⁹²⁾ — Euromaidan

Been over this, @Tzeentch

I'm aware of the context — Tzeentch

Goodie, then you also know about the

deNazification, this, sham referenda + swift annexations, this, irredentism — Jul 22, 2024

yet keep skirting how to fit it all into your story/theory, hence the question.

Where is this imperialist Russia that wants to "Finlandize Europe"? — Tzeentch

This is just the reality Ukraine has to deal with. — Tzeentch

They told us exactly what the problem was, and they told us exactly what the consequences would be. — Tzeentch

And,

as mentioned before, what they're doing won't solve their (supposed) NATO-phobia — Jul 22, 2024

anyway.

So ... fit into your story?

, OK, follow the thread, where the bottom quote seemingly confused you (I've underlined some snippets):

With denazification and all that? — ssu

Where is this imperialist Russia that wants to "Finlandize Europe"? — Tzeentch

↪Tzeentch, do you think the demilitarization deNazification irredentism stuff (pertaining just to Ukraine) was blather for the gallery? (I'm guessing yes, except when in service of neo-colonialism.) — jorndoe

No, they mean it. — Tzeentch

This is just the reality Ukraine has to deal with. — Tzeentch

They told us exactly what the problem was, and they told us exactly what the consequences would be. — Tzeentch

↪Tzeentch, and deNazification, this, sham referenda + swift annexations, this, irredentism? And, as mentioned before, what they're doing won't solve their (supposed) NATO-phobia. Seems odd if they wouldn't know that. :shrug:

On another note, I considered doing a poll: Is NATO more of an existential threat to Russia, than Russia is to Ukraine? Since there's no proof, it would be a matter of honest assessment. Seems reasonably clear what assessments have come out of Finland and Sweden. — jorndoe

By the way, which do you think is the larger threat there (if any/comparable)?

, and deNazification, this, sham referenda + swift annexations, this, irredentism? And, as mentioned before, what they're doing won't solve their (supposed) NATO-phobia. Seems odd if they wouldn't know that. :shrug:

On another note, I considered doing a poll: Is NATO more of an existential threat to Russia, than Russia is to Ukraine? Since there's no proof, it would be a matter of honest assessment. Seems reasonably clear what assessments have come out of Finland and Sweden.

According to Johnson, if McClown has a say about the war, it'll be something like...

• supporters allow Ukraine to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, as well as other weapons, to target airfields in Russia; once Russian troops are pushed back, Putin could offer a deal
• Russia retreats to the borders as of Feb 24, 2022; Ukrainian territory under Kyiv's control is recognized as a free country with the prospect of rapid accession to the EU and NATO
• after the war, some Ukrainian troops are to be stationed in Europe to replace part of the 70,000 US troops deployed to deter potential Russian aggression; this would save US $s, bring American troops home, and compel Europeans to up defense, which is one of his goals
• Russia declares that the "Special Military Operation" has fulfilled its mission and deNazified the country; special protective measures are to be introduced for the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine

Not really consistent with prior statements, and not consistent with his present VP pick, but who knows.

, do you think the demilitarization deNazification irredentism stuff (pertaining just to Ukraine) was blather for the gallery? (I'm guessing yes, except when in service of neo-colonialism.)

Congratz :up: :cool:

There we go again.

Trump uses false claim about Chinese auto plants in Mexico to call for UAW president to be fired
^{— Tom Krisher, Mark Stevenson · AP · Jul 19, 2024}

Serial bullshitter, serial liar, going for the White House.