That's how you determine which ethical theory is true? Which one seems more 'down to earth'? What does that even mean?
Arbitrary means 'without reason'. Most ethicists reject consequentialism because it makes predictions about morality that are not confirmed by our rational intuitions. What would be arbitrary would be to ignore that counter evidence. For now your belief in consequentialism is not reason informed or responsive.
Incidentally, if consequentialism is true and the good to be maximised is pleasure or happiness, and the bad to be minimized is pain, then presumably you too would be against lockdowns?
For the virus, if allowed free reign, would kill mainly the elderly, who are a big drain on resources. Their productive years are over, they themselves are fairly miserable, and the resources used to cater to them could produce much more utility if spent elsewhere. So you would reason - if you were a true consequentialist and not simply someone who tries to find negative or positive consequences to justify doing what they were going to do anyway - that letting the virus blaze through us all would be far and away the most utility maximizing policy. And you'd stop the media whipping up fear of impending doom in everyone (lots of censorship - ignorance is often bliss). Just shut the media up and let the virus do its thing. Most of us wouldn't notice. "Steve got ill....and died! He was only 55. He was fit as a fiddle, but by thursday he was dead" "Oh, gosh. That's terrible. Poor Steve. Makes you think, doesn't it? Anyway, what's for dinner? Cough" That'd be it.
And as a good consequentialist, you'd stop covid patients clogging up ICU by just implementing proper triage procedures. If someone has covid and needs ventilating, then they're probably going to die - so spare the ICU bed for someone more likely to benefit from it. It's not how much you need something that matters, but how much benefit giving it to you would achieve.
The clever and wealthy would be able to hunker down and let covid pass over - for in 6months to a year herd immunity would have been achieved and the virus would have mutated into something much less deadly (as is their tendency). And the feckless and elderly and stupid and otherwise expensive, burdensome part of the human community would have been reduced (for without assistance, they do not fare well). In a year or two there would be a massive boom - as there was in the roaring twenties after spanish flu - and covid would be but a distant memory. We'd miss gran and steve, but gran was dying anyway and we've inherited early, and Steve. ..well, you make new friends don't you? (Individuals are replaceable with consequentialism - they're just containers of utility, not bearers of rights).
You are a very bad consequentialist - appalling - if you think the most utile thing to do is to force everyone into their homes, regardless of whether they want to do that (most people really dislike having their freedom curtailed). All those people who have died from covid - they'd have died of it if there wasn't a lockdown, yes? So locking them down just made them miserable to no gain whatsoever. And most of us - the vast bulk - would not be killed by it. So most of us are being made miserable and poorer and being made to lose businesses for the sake of sparing us a flu-like illness (the vast bulk of us would rather suffer a flu like illness than be locked in our homes for months on end at massive cost to ourselves and others....as you can tell by the fact that if there were no enforced lockdowns, most would not have voluntarily locked themselves down, would they?). How on earth - how on earth! - can you possibly think that's a good consequential profile?
So, consequentialism is false. But if it is true, then lockdowns fail any halfway plausible coldblooded consequentialist analysis. Note: deaths aren't a big deal on consequentialism (unless the only consequence you are interested in is keeping the maximum number of persons alive). You don't have a right to life at all. Not if consequentialism is true. We are all just counters on a scale.