The universe is likely completely mathematical, and I believe 100% deterministic. Not to say we don't have the ultimate playground of the delusion of free-will. Science enables us to understand more of the sub-atomic actions and reactions causing every 'random' event or even lottery pick, as time goes on. Just as we continue to understand the inner workings of the most complex machine in the universe, the human brain, so we will understand better the infinitely complex closed system we live within.

I think therefore I am. Rock formations or a cup would not care about being 'broken' or altered in shape, nor would they rationalize about origins. Only the maker of the cup (self-evident) and creator of cup-maker, rocks, & our minds would have this discussion. Actually the latter Creator doesn't ever discuss or rationalize but extends this ability to us mankind alone. Actually also we are possibly part of this Creator's brain consciousness currently discussing this.

I'd say the mug was designed no question, and the accidental breakage is in parenthesis within that. Seeming randomness, chaos or storyline, happens within the overall framework of the intelligently created universe. Design or randomness is in the eye of the beholder, thus the argument will never end.