It will not pass. If Manchin decides to pass something, which has been reported he's interested in doing so piece-meal, it will be devoid of anything meaningful. That's assuming anything passes whatsoever.
Of course, it isn't just Manchin. He's taking the fall on this, and happy to do so, but most of the Democratic party isn't interested in passing anything meaningful for the working/middle class, for the environment, or for really anything that threatens their plutocratic masters' position and power. They made their choice long ago; it was particularly evident in how the DNC effectively, unlike the RNC, beat back the more popular candidate, Bernie Sanders. The rest has mostly been empty lip service and placation to corral his supporters -- and the last year has taken away any doubt whatsoever of this (their vote was
against Trump anyway, not
for Biden -- which is a crucial distinction).
So the legislation is indeed dead, and the fossil fuel kingpin is largely (but not entirely) to blame. It was already largely watered down, which is what initially made me think that it had a chance of passing (given that the biggest provision was already removed and the price tag came way down). Alas, my own foolishness.
We're wasting with time we don't have, either way. Democrats only nibble around the edges.
I'm thinking now that there are two options before us: (1) the people can give what's called the "extreme" sides of the political spectrum full control over the government -- abolish the filibuster or give supermajorities, etc -- so that we see what truly comes out of either vision (including, unfortunately, the Republican party). This is probably spells doom, and wastes 2-6 years. But at least the citizens will get a real sense of what it looks like, as they do in state governments dominated by one party or the other.
Or (2) is that we wait for a much-needed cultural and economic upheaval. 9/11 obviously didn't cut it. 2008 financial crisis and recession came close, but mostly that just got us Trump. The coronavirus obviously didn't bring anyone together, although it has shifted people around in their jobs, perhaps increased remote work, and apparently has energized, to a degree, the labor movement (Starbucks, Amazon, all the strikes taking place). But none of it is enough. We need a
real crash and a
real depression. Things need to get far worse, evidently -- because the 80% of the American populace is still convinced that there are "two sides."
What I'm waiting for is the massive crash of the stock market -- which I have little doubt will happen. Watch what the Fed does.
Unfortunately, if this does happen it will most likely bring the Republicans in power -- and possibly Trump again. But perhaps that's what's necessary to awaken the large movement (bordering on revolution if not outright revolution) that's needed, at this point.
Beyond that, I see no way we avoided future catastrophe.
(BTW, I don't want to minimize the huge success of the people organizing in unions and going on strikes, etc. -- the concession of Shultz to freeze $20 billion in stock buybacks is a MAJOR victory for labor, and shouldn't be dismissed.)