Moi? I have been accused of war cheerleading here more often than I care to count. The words roll off the tongue of your buddies day and night. And when for the first time I return them the compliment, I'm the one to blame?

That's called a double standard. — Olivier5

If you support the Ukrainian war effort ... but aren't in Ukraine fighting the war, nor even proposing troops from your own country go and fight with Ukrainians to at least vicariously live through your own soldiers' bravery ... then you are simply cheerleading other people fight a war that you're not willing to fight personally nor you're own government.

If you're in Ukraine fighting, then maybe that serves a military or political objective, maybe not, we shall certainly find out.

If you're arguing with people who's position is to put pressure on their own governments (who's policy they can most affect and are most morally responsible for affecting) and super-political-block, the EU, to use their soft power to work on diplomatic solutions rather than pour in arms ... precisely because we aren't about to send any troops and sending arms instead is a cowards cop out, that is the opposite of cheerleading a war.

None of us are cheerleading Russia to level Ukrainian cities to the ground, we are appalled it is happening and there are certainly diplomatic solutions given the immense leverage NATO and the EU has in the situation.

The US didn't just send arms to Britain to fight the NAZI's and call that "fighting a righteous cause" ... yet somehow social media posts are a moral substitute to taking any actual risk for one's pet cause.

This is literally the first time in history where selling and gifting arms is a pure act of altruism and the bravest thing freedom lovers could possibly do, or ever have done, amen.

Like what?

Maybe provide at least some examples of what's misunderstood.

How are you sure you're not serial misunderstanding your understanding of serial misunderstanderers?

Oh sure, how the war is going it surely won't be an Afghanistan for Russia. It will be much, much worse. — ssu

This isn't an "Afghanistan".

If the war is quick, it may cost lives but doesn't slowly ground down morale and domestic support over time.

Right now Putin's popularity has increased and Russian's support the war, so the war need only be ended within this window of popularity.

Putin has not made promises that can't be kept: like "democratize" Ukraine at the end of a rifle.

Putin has already achieved the land bridge to Crimea and if the Dombas front collapses and territory pushes out regions border, Putin can just sit on this territory and shell to oblivion anything that approaches while continuing to strike command and control and logistics infrastructure.

The entire Russian army can be consolidated to the lines around what Putin claims to want, maybe around Kiev as well to keep pressure on the capital ... and then just wait for his terms, that have not changed since the beginning of the war, to be accepted.

What the Kremlin has learned from previous episodes, is that Western "Unity" is only ever short lived and only ever exists on social media and not in any tangible form. Winning the social media culture war ... doesn't win a real war, is the main lesson to be drawn from Syria.

If a military status quo settles in with the Russian army mostly just sitting on the territory it wants to keep, then the EU is going to start to wonder what it's going to do with all the refugees and disputes will break out about that ... gonna look really attractive the idea of the war actually ending so Ukrainians can go back to Ukraine (which, for now, most want to do ... but if the war goes on for any amount of time, most will start making new lives and will have nothing to go back to).

As far as I can tell, the only reason Zelensky didn't accept Russia's terms in the first phase of the war, when it was easy to do:

1. Neo-Nazi's made it clear they would kill him if he did.

2. He genuinely believed in the power of acting to conjure up a NATO no-fly zone a la Churchillian Dumbledore.

3. He got so many views ... no one in show business can walk away from

However, the difference with Churchill is that he also had a feasible military strategy and feasible political strategy of getting US into the war and a pathway to military victory based on military experience (indeed, experience largely considered to be failures, and maybe a little dabbling in genocide, but potentially kind of experience that breeds the requisite caution). Also a little foot note: Britain was still head of a large empire from which to draw resources to take on the new Nazi empire, with the Nazi-Soviet alliance tenuously paranoid at best.

The modern conception that Churchill's speech somehow caused, in itself, the defeat of the Nazi's without any sort of credible plan ... is possibly misguided.

Politicians love Zelensky because social media loves Zelensky and his views of photo-ops are their views of photo-ops and the whole thing makes other political problems just sort of ... vanish.

And, their real constituents, the arms manufacturers, tell them war is good, and so it is. And so it is.

However, if speeches don't cause wars to be won in themselves, then Zelensky is in a dilly of a pickle, having fought an existential war to the last man ... only to accept terms offered on day one.

Of course, Russia likely knew the terms would be rejected, so they could then sell the war they want (total obliteration of the Ukrainian military as a going concern) even easier to the home audience, as nearly all Russians will agree A. Ukraine should be neutral and not host NATO missiles and nukes pointed at their cities B. Crimea should stay Russian and be recognized as Russian and C. Dombas should be independent.

At the end of the day, Russians are simply buying what Putin's selling as it makes sense to them, and he hasn't overplayed his hand by promising much more.

He's argued Ukraine is somehow apart of Russia already ... but there has not really been any actual demands to annex the whole of Ukraine, so that could be sort of contextual historical analysis not directly connected to any current political aim as well as a legal cover for conscripts in Ukraine, which did happen and may have been planned as a plan-C "if needs be" (as the conscripts can legally only defend Russia ... obviously, as @Benkei points out, the law doesn't really matter, but still pretextual justifications are needed, just as NATO made the pretextual justification to go from "No-fly-zone" to bombs everything that moved on the basis that anything that moved could in theory support an anti-air asset that in theory could support a plane that in theory could fly if Lybia had any left that weren't already shot down or bombed--it was totally preposterous reasoning, and the whole point is that doesn't matter).

... of course, that being said NATO can always hire Marvel and DC script doctors to do a clean reboot a la The Batman and Spiderman: Far from Home.

But does NATO have that kind of cash to attract that sort of talent?

And is there enough creative material and fan loyalty to avoid an X-men or Fantastic 4 ... just ... sort of fizzling out?

There's chances the franchise can keep loyal fans and build on that, but, honestly ... NATO may have to sell to Disney to access their production studios, creative pool and audience reach.

Sure, NATO's tapping yesterday's stars, but can Bono's edgy anti-establishment poetry he's so famous for, really get fans back in the seats? Can audiences really keep up with the franchise when there's huge drops like Obi Wan ... is Disney even prepared to pickup another creative orphan?

Uncertain times in the market, and I'm just not sure one hit, even as massive and totally adored on social media as it is now, is enough to fix plot things long term for NATO's creative executives.

Even die hard fans maybe difficult to keep committed if plot holes like NATO officers being killed in missile strikes don't have some sort of fan service resolution that keeps the older generation, that really grew up reading the old pre-NATO installments, like WWII, interested, while also reaching out to the new generation that thinks the SS were just total bad asses and it's just super fun to mix them up in a campy mashup of different characters fighting the new super villain; bringing out the "Red Army" is for sure a nostalgic throwback and safe choice for NATO, really directly addressing the core audience, but at the same time, even details like the new uniforms is a really big leap in design for them to take in, not to mention the whole re-conception of "The Soviet Red Menace" for a younger, more digital audience who connects more if they fear them as more of a "virtual" foe that's mostly just a danger to anonymous avatars online, than some actual "physical" enemy that may blowup entire cities at any moment, the classic "ticking clock" that kept eyes glued to screens in the 70s franchise heyday; but viewed by younger generations as a pre-internet tiresome gimmick. There's not even any submarines in this new story that happens nearly entirely on land, and for a lot of people that's a big disappointment; but maybe NATO's teasing a neo-Nazi submarine escape from Mariupole as a way to bridge those concerns, there's certainly no end to that sort of speculation about this sort of plot twist on the legacy fan forums, and maybe a way to really win over hearts that the rebranded neo-Nazi's as a ambiguous "anti-heros" that fans are supposed to empathize and understand in this new alliance, rather than that classic archetypal villain that just needs to be defeated for the plot to move forward, are a core part of the story now; of course, solutions may exist, such as another fan theory favorite is having them play that super cool submarine role, satisfying old fans demands to see more submarines as well a form of narrative continuation of the original Nazi's, of which submarines was a signature ability.

The script literally writes itself.

My only worry is we can't go "bigger" in the next installment of the NATO cinematic universe.

I think this is why right wingers gravitate to obvious liars: it is a sign of strength and status, to be able to tell such lies. The stronger one is, the bolder the lies one is able to tell. — hypericin

Oh, you mean like the literal head of the CIA accusing, unnironically, the Russian's of waging an "information war".

Or ... do you have more in mind the current President of the United States saying he engaged in civil disobedience with Corn Pop as well as arrested in South Africa trying to see Mandela in prison.

Or maybe you have in mind something like George Bush joking about finding WMD's in Iraq, that they "gotta be around there somewhere"?

You have that sort of unaccountable lying ... or just Trump, who, last time I checked, does get held accountable for his lies, the liberal media repeats them ad nauseam and, unlike the neo-con's who bragged about "making the facts", Trump was held accountable in the democratic process and lost re-election and he's held accountable by the powerful all the time for his continued insistence the election was stolen from him. But, certainly Trump had so much power and was so unnacountable for anything he says that losing the election was the biggest expression of raw power the world has ever seen.

You are the only war cheerleader here. — Olivier5

By recommending diplomacy be engaged with in good faith to try to end the war? And, simultaneously to that, diplomacy be used to protect civilians ... like evacuating them by boat from a port city.

Before this high intensity phase of the war began, diplomacy could have easily resolved it.

However, not taking that opportunity, now Zelensky and the West are faced with the problem that Ukraine won't be Russia's Afghanistan as their plan is to just completely demolish Ukraine's war infrastructure ... and most it's trained soldiers, and then just lay siege to cities until their demands are met.

And the whole thing of Western war hawks rushing to declare Ukraine Russia's Afghanistan as the insurgency will be impossible to manage (until shh, shh, shh we need to pretend their winning to justify sending the warms to fuel the insurgency) is premised on what:

1. The West's own Afghanistan was a completely immoral debacle and cluster fuck that simply killed Western soldiers for nothing, couldn't be won, and simply resulted in two decades of war and suffering and terrible deaths for normal Afghans only to be ruled, in the end, by fanatical extremists (the only kinds of people that fight an insurgency for 2 decades) that are even more extreme than before and now have zero fear of any Western military interventions of any kind and no diplomatic pressure can be placed on them whatsoever to alleviate people's suffering much less try to export those "Western values" I keep hearing so much about.

2. The conflict only benefited Western Arms dealers, just as this Ukraine conflict only benefits Western arms dealers at the end of the day.

3. The self-righteous refusal for years and years and years to negotiate some peace settlement with the Taliban, when there was far better position and leverage to do so, as "they're too evil", wasn't self-righteous and good faith at all, but just as an excuse to sell more arms ... considering negotiating with the Taliban is exactly what NATO does when they tire of the war and there's more arms to be sold in a new Cold war which is obviously coming (the pull out of Afghanistan happens after the Ukraine army start preparing for a large offensive in Dombas which solicits the totally expected and inevitable buildup of Russian forces, that must invade if there's no deal ... which NATO knows ahead of time isn't going to happen).

4. Ukraine will be totally wrecked by the insurgency and far more Ukrainians will be killed by fanatical extremists than Russians will be.

5. Ukraine, like Afghanistan, will serve as a extremist fighter training ground as well as giant arms depot, to then export extremist violence all around the region to destabilize any government of the CIA's choosing at any moment by providing more arms and money in exchange for focusing a generally omnidirectional fanatical rage on the target of the day, with "advisors" on the ground if things aren't going to great as over confidence is the fanatical extremist fighter's weakness and they keep dying in foolhardy attacks planned and executed entirely based on their own sense of superiority.

6. Decades from now, Ukrainian babies will be literally starving to death, and, just as with the West's Afghanistan, no one will care about the Russian's Afghanistan at that point in the future. Let them eat cake, those babies ... you know, if it's their birthday they certainly deserve it.

7. Such a public and long term moral and military disaster, waste of troops and equipment, will, just like the US, undermine Russia's security, position in the world, and erode their military's confidence and domestic and international image, leading, ultimately, to an embarrassing withdrawal (military loss) and signal to American "friends" that American "friendship" means dick-all and can't be counted on and also signal to all America's competitors that US public is tired of war and they need not fear any "boots on the ground" military intervention at any time in the near and medium and perhaps long term future, except maybe the supply of arms and dropping some bombs from time to time (2 things that can be easily dealt with technologically if you're any more sophisticated and prepared than Gadafi ... who honestly though he was a friend of the West, pitching his tent in the ).

When current and ex CIA, and other retired "Generals" and officials and so on, trip over the dicks and their tits to gleefully tell us Ukraine will be Russia's Afghanistan, it's exactly the above they have in mind.





Caption: European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana talks with Gaddafi during a meeting in his bedouin tent in Brussels, on 27 April 2004; Photograph: European Council/Reuters



For, when you have friends like these ... who needs enemies?



Lybia post-NATO no fly zone and glorious liberation!

They have already oil & gas pipelines to China and likely will build more: — ssu

Yes, but these pipelines across thousands of Kilometres do take time to build, so my reading is the nuclear ice-breakers are a plan B to ship oil out the arctic ... it's not like they'd be shipping beanie babies.

Yes, we will surely soon forget this thread and the media can focus on other issues, but as long as the war goes on, the effects of it will be there. And even if the war would tone down as it did after 2015 for seven years or there would be a cease-fire that held, the World has already changed. — ssu

My basic point is that the Western media will focus on something else as soon as focusing on this is inconvenient. Afghanistan babies starving to death is inconvenient, so we're focusing on the Russians now.

Normal people don't necessarily forget, but the Western media is pretty synchronous with whatever policy the West "needs to do right now" to deal with [insert outrage].

Problems today, for Western institutions, are whatever Western media says they are, proven by the fact Western media is saying it and, doubly so, by the fact Western institutions are answering the call to do something about it.

Opinions of normal people don't really matter in this conversation between Western media and Western institutions, just that Western bureaucrats and politicians and even CEO's know what they're supposed to be doing today, hating the people that need hating today and coddling the people that need sympathy today from knowing about, sometimes even interacting, with said hated group (but mostly just knowing about a hated group exists, even if they lack any power at all to affect your life, is oppressive enough). From time to time the conversation exists to explain that, yes it's unfortunate, but nothing really can be done to help people negatively affected by Western policies--no end of the "realist" supply when those issues are "debated".

Can you at least stop using obscene words like that all the time? I find it disgusting. — Olivier5

I find cheerleading a war to continue and for arms to be poured in to fuel it with zero consideration if that even helps the victims of the war and simply pre-supposing any criticism of the righteous war and arms dealers propping it up is unrighteous as we know it's righteous even if it doesn't, and shouldn't, encounter any criticism of that premise at all, is disgusting.

We all have our own tastes, don't we.

I don't even like ice-cream at all.

An oil embargo has been talked about by EU foreign ministers. For example Poland is openly demanding it and naturally many countries are opposing it. At least yet. — ssu

I guess post it when it actually happens.

You have to make infrastructure investments and quite a dramatic realignment to stop Russian gas and oil trade. But it is totally possible. It simply cannot be done in weeks. But in few years, totally possible. — ssu

Agreed that some infrastructure adjustments would be needed if the EU stopped importing ... but I'm not sure by how much, as Russia has been investing massively in a fleet of nuclear icebreakers, which, I assume, is to be able to ship out oil and gas from the arctic; and that capacity may be already there, at least most of the year, if the tankers can just show up.

Step 11- millions of refugees resulting from the situation look to their noble benefactors for succor.

Step 12- noble benefactors: "fuck off, we've got a new crisis on the front page now" — Isaac

I totally forgot about all those unpaid extras! Can't make a war epic without them.

I feel so silk stocking liberal right now, you have no idea.

But yes, people genuinely believe this current New cycle won't go the way of terrorism, Afghanistan, WMD's, Iraq, banks stealing trillions of USD after corrupting the entire system leading to it's crashing and a public bailout and zero accountability, emails, grab em by the pussy, emails, piss tape, the leader of the free world threatening to turn another country into a lake of fire as foreplay for some sort of online bromance, US mass riots and looting and buildings burning, and war on drugs needing more war part, invasion of the world's superpower's capital buildings, mass shooting of the week, ice-cream flavours, Chavez, Iran, Chavez, Iran, Maduro, Iran, China pivot, migrants drowning all the time, opioids scandal, Lybia, sporadic but most important political identity crisis to ever happen, Syrira, Covid, Afghanistan, toxic male executives all the time (guilty as charged though ... and this one will make a comeback, just like the Red Army and cold war paranoia!).

The backlash is people getting into severe cognitive dissonance which disrupts the war horny trance like state they were in previously, when they encounter the fact the "neo-Nazi" problem isn't some fringe skinheads in some seedy bar, but a whole institution.

Which, please pay attention to the "black sun" which doesn't even have any apologist "it's just a rune" or "ancient Sanskrit symbol" whatever explanation, but literally created by the SS for the SS.



And also discover, at least the US and Canada (... maybe not other NATO members like Germany, who are the experts on neo-Nazi's after all and arbitrate whether they exist or not in today's media landscape) exposed to be breaking their own laws, which was military aid was contingent on irregular forces not doing any fighting or getting any weapons or ammunition ... which journalists could just go debunk in like, a single day's investigation?



And discover ... that when people talk about this problem going back to 2014 ... there's times and BBC reportings on this very thing:

January First, is one of the most important days in their callender. It marks the birth of Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian partisan forces during the second world war.

The rally was organized by the far right Svoboda Party. Protests marched amidst a river of torches, with signs saying "Ukraine above all else".

But for many in Ukraine and abroad, Bandera's legacy is controversial. His group, the organization of Ukrainian Nationalists sided with Nazi German forces [but fortunately we have modern Germany to tell us there's no connection!] before breaking with them later in the war. Western Historians also say that his followers carried out massacres of Polish and Jewish civilians.

[... interview with a guy explaining the importance of Stepan Bandera's birthday party ]

Ukraine is a deeply divided country, however, and many in its East and South consider the party to be extremist. Many observers say rallies like today's torch light march only add to this division [really?!?! you don't say...]. — BBC

Or discover this one which interviews the FBI talking about these terrorists training with Azov ... but ... wait, "the war on terror" doesn't extend to white terrorists training "oversees".

And has the quote (recorded on video) from one of the recruiters:

We're Aryans, and we will rise again — totally not a neo-Nazi, according to the German government

But ... the president is Jewish and is allied with these forces, who don't even hate Jews all that much! So obviously you can have Nazi's if their friendly Nazi's (to your side).



This one's just adorable.

...familiar plot? — Isaac

Completely familiar ... but even more familiar is the exact same script in Syria:

1. Russian army is incompetent, hahahahah
2. "Resistance" is winning the information war, so many videos of "resistance" victories online!
3. Gains Russian army are making mean nothing
4. The people Russia are fighting are freedom fighters, not a single fanatical extremist among them
5. We need to pour arms into the situation to give Russia their Afghanistan! Hurrah!!!
6. Russia is winning ... but playing unfair!!! Boohoohooo
7. Chemical attack is going to happen
8. Anyday now, chemical attack since Russia is winning on the ground, but Putin and Assad are so evil they'll use chemical warfare when their wining! (obviously if they were actually losing we'd just let that play out into a failed state).
9. Chemical attack is coming ... it's coming ... Assad and Putin are just that crazy, and they know we'll be upset about a surprise chemical attack!!! And they know we'll easily find out!! And it will isolate Russia on the world stage and totally backfire!! But nothing can stop their evil machinations!!!
10. Chemical attack! Chemical attack!

We're on step 9 of this play.

Oh it has, among the European left and even in the extreme right. — Olivier5

OMG!!! Putin must be terrified!!!

But, even if that was true, there's clearly a big backlash to the neo-Nazi's and so on, otherwise the Western Media wouldn't constantly be saying we can't talk about it and people in this conversations wouldn't be all "shhhh, shhhh, hush, we don't mention the neo-Nazi's that helps Purit!" ... ok, well how does it help Putin if his "allure" is all gone?

It's just damage control, I suspect. The idea is to combat the rapid depreciation of Mr Putin's allure in the West and elsewhere, as swift as the ruble's on the currency market. — Olivier5

This is simply not true. Putin's "allure" in the West is exactly the same as it was before: dictator, evil, murderer, Hitler, chemical weapons user, fascist and old soviet reactionary in addition to even older school Empirial Czarist as well.

His "allure" in the West hasn't "declined".

As for the rest of the world, China, India, Brazil, Africa etc. are staying neutral or then supporting Russia in buying gas and oil.

Indeed, EU's purchases of gas and oil far out-weigh any other sanctions or arms dealing with Ukraine.

For example, check out this infographic



If you're not actually stopping the flow of oil and gas ... you aren't really doing anything of significance against Russia's economy.

What would be significant is blocking off real, tangible intellectual property that Russia needs to function (single points of failure that are disproportionate points of leverage, such as in Soviet times) ... but, oopsie, we sent all the Western IPR made by our superior "freedom based creativity" to Communist China and other East-Asian countries that aren't about to stop sending anything China buys to China to stop Russia buying it from the Chinese.

All the West has area brands and "spanking" Russia by pulling out those brands just cedes market share to the Chinese. It's a capitalist wet dream for the entire pantheon of competing brands to just "go away" from the market, and Communist China definitely understands that part of capitalism ... to go take that market share.

However, to make things even worse about the infographic:

Brown box is other raw mineral commodities totally unaffected by sanctions as everyone needs these kinds of commodities, in particular China, and Russia offering these at even a slightly cheaper price, will be bought up, and the most that happens is global resource flows just change around a bit.

The pink box is petroleum derivatives, totally unaffected by sanctions, same reason as above.

The purple box is precious metals, again easy to sell and also just easy to stockpile as part of central bank holdings.

Yellow is food ... no one about to "not buy food" if they need it.

Beige and orange also food.

Red is wood products, again commodity not going anywhere on the international market.

Blue is capital equipment that, guaranteed, Russia isn't selling much of to Europe and likely those trade relations are totally unaffected by sanctions.

In short, pretty much the entire infographic of Russia exports are either totally unaffected by sanctions ... even by their "enemies" such as the EU sanctioning them, or then, at best, just re-orders international material flows a bit but in no way stops those Russian exports.

And since the war increases commodity prices generally speaking, even if Russia has to undercut competition in the markets it has access to (... like one of largest economies in the world, China, but also India isn't sanctioning Russia, and certainly not Russia's post-soviet allies that remain and Iran and so forth) ... is still selling at a larger profit than before the war, that then easily pays for the war.

People think this is Soviet collapse 2.0 ... depressing commodity prices (intentionally or just because cheap oil was plentiful back then) and restricting critical IPR (in particular computation) was a big part of the unravelling of the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union was making bank on its core business of commodities then likely it could have kept people happier during its reform programs ... which it was only trying to do in the first place because, back then, IPR economy was king (and commodities ran on thin margins) and the whole Soviet system wasn't great at IPR style capitalism to constantly innovate the new bling people crave (you know, after they've been told they crave it by marketers).

But we're now at the end of the great capitalist "innovate your way out of your problems" 500 year run, and there isn't really any new "must have" gadgets that keep the "myth of progress" narrative going.

Westerners have cell phones ... so do Russians, and the "grass is greener" effect also no longer works as Russia has now tasted Western style capitalism and most Russians think they were better off under communism ... so, isn't that happening, certainly at least in the authoritarian component, just "democracy".

Or possibly, are you just such an arrogant twat that you think whatever you've heard simply must be true because, unlike all those other dupes, you couldn't possibly be being fed a narrative, you wouldn't fall for that. It's only everyone else who falls for that. — Isaac

Well, to be fair, I'm falling for this narrative this very moment.

Dude, the whole current war is precisely because NATO isn't Ukraine's friend ... or it would be in Ukraine right now shoulder to shoulder, protecting its "friend".

Saying NATO arms dealing with Ukraine is "friendship" is like saying your meth dealer dealing you meth is "friendship".

Maybe you need the meth, but big mistake thinking your meth dealer's your friend. That's how suicides happen. Public service announcement everyone.

I can't respond to all the responses to me just yet.

However, I wanted to drop this analysis that seems, so far in my research, the best overall view of the crisis and each expert more-or-less predicts exactly the current situation in their area, and also agree on where their subjects overlap.

Anatol Lieven even predicts the exact Russian political strategy, which is to not "occupy" and passify the country, but just hold territory militarily, blowup everything that's a threat, and basically demand Ukrainian Neutrality and independence for Dombass regions.

The military experts correctly predict it will not be "half measures" but a full scale invasion, and the political experts correctly predict Russia can likely withstand the sanctions.

When searching for theories, you don't actually want too much analysis of current "just happened" information (although that's useful too, and necessary to even have some idea of what a theory would need to explain, just that so many theories can fit today's data), but rather theories in the past that predict the current information; i.e. predictive power, is what is most insightful.



The absolute key takeaway is: "The Swedes could join NATO, or could join any other alliance, they still won't fight."

In your cryptosoviet dreams. — Olivier5

This is literally what has just happened with cold war 2.0.

It's not a Soviet dream ... soft power didn't matter much in the cold war, but mattered a lot after the cold war, and again doesn't matter much in the new cold war.

EU doesn't have hard power, NATO does and it's lead by the US (which isn't even in the EU), so, as the worlds largest economic block, the EU had a lot more soft power in the global integrated economy as it existed before this war in Ukraine and schism in said globally integrated economy.

↪boethius Yeah, I get that, but, you know, actions speak louder than words. — Wayfarer

The BBC and other Western media are starting to "prepare" people for a negotiated settlement ... whether to encourage that to happen or then it's already been "more or less" worked out behind the scenes. Keep in mind Russia and US still have the "nuclear emergency phone" so may have been having a totally parallel top level negotiation all this time.

We certainly don't know the facts on the ground, but Russia and US certainly have a pretty good picture. If Ukraine can't win, then both Russia and US certainly know that, and they may have already worked out "a deal" of some sort.

Negotiation between the big powers is always secret and they can always "horse trade" all sorts of stuff, certainly to the disapproval of everyone here.

At the end of the day, Biden wants to be reelected more than he hate Russians, and so he's "pro Ukraine war" when that boosted his ratings, and now that there's not only blowback but potentially a lot more blowback if the war continues, he / administration maybe willing to work out a deal with Russia (there's all sorts of diplomatic channels to "feel things out", but the nuclear phone would be the most "dramatic" and I assume has been used in all these nuclear escalation talks).

The big liability for Biden if the war is not resolved is that supporting Ukraine and denouncing Russia has played well in this phase, but if Ukraine loses then he looks weak, which is worse in American domestic politics and all these international relations considerations.

So, at this particular moment of the war, everyone, in particular US and Russia (the people with all the nuclear weapons) can call it quits and still say they won.

As I said previously, Zelensky is entirely dependent on NATO, therefore the US, to supply his army, so will accept whatever deal US tells him to accept.

I want to see a resolution because I don't like people dying. Morality questions are easier to discuss with people that are still alive.

Some Kremlin PR hack drafting respectable-sounding diplomatic soundbytes to feed to the media, meanwhile Putin's army is destroying entire cities full of non-combatants because his troops are too incompetent to win on a battlefield. — Wayfarer

This is literally the BBC ... yes, state media, but the British state media last time I checked.

The Russian demands fall into two categories.

The first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet.

Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.

There are other demands in this category which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side.

Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called de-Nazification.

This is deeply offensive to Mr Zelensky, who is himself Jewish and some of whose relatives died in the Holocaust, but the Turkish side believes it will be easy enough for Mr Zelensky to accept. Perhaps it will be enough for Ukraine to condemn all forms of neo-Nazism and promise to clamp down on them. — BBC

Indeed, perhaps it's enough for Zelensky to just publicly say neo-Nazi's are bad and should not have their own paramilitary brigades and bases, where they publicly said they'll kill the government if the Ukrainian actual military came for their guns.

The rest of the article is interesting as well on the other category which was the land issue.

Still, President Putin's demands are not as harsh as some people feared and they scarcely seem to be worth all the violence, bloodshed and destruction which Russia has visited on Ukraine.

Given his heavy-handed control over the Russian media, it shouldn't be too hard for him and his acolytes to present all this as a major victory. — BBC

Which is a pretty good insight on part of the state owned media the BBC.

If they wanted a clear & unequivocal answer from Nuland, they would have asked for such an answer. But they didn’t, and also that can be seen as suspicious. — neomac

The senator was totally shocked that the answer wasn't no, and changed the subject to his next question (aka. damage control) that any chemical attack we can know ahead of time is like totally Russia, which Nuland then stops what she was saying to joviently declare chemical attacks Russia's MO.

Feeding the Russian propaganda with half truths to increase Russian support will facilitate Russian use of chemical weapons in a "false flag" attacks against Ukraine [1]. This is for example what I would consider more reckless. — neomac

It's not feeding Russian propaganda with half truths, it's a completely legitimate conversation about something "fuck-the-EU" Nuland said, and as someone who lives in the EU, I think it's pretty relevant to evaluate her testimony as potentially revealing her "fuck-the-EU" strategy.

Of course, any legitimate criticism by EU citizens of US official operating in the EU, will also be used for propaganda purposes by plenty of parties, doesn't render legitimate discussions "half truths feeding the propaganda"; indeed, it's only so amazingly awesome for propaganda purposes because it's a legitimate discussion. If it was out of context, minor official, nothing burger, then using it for propaganda can easily blow-back when the nothing burgerness is established. What's shocking in the Nuland testimony is there's no contextual ambiguity, she's a high official that would know, and she even disambiguates what she means by clarifying that what she's talking about shouldn't fall in the hands of the Russians and they're working hard to make sure that doesn't happen.

I’m referring to a war of propaganda and how the intelligence resources might be invested to feed the propaganda machine. — neomac

Yeah, obviously there's also a propaganda or "information" war going on, but the problem with ignoring legitimate issues of debate because talking about something may "help the bad person" is that ... how do you even know who's good and bad if truth is off-limits. I'm not advocating we should peddle in half truths, I'm advocating we should deal in truths. Obviously, any given truth is going to help certain people more than others and, indeed, could be extremely embarrassing to certain people and not others. Doesn't change the fact that it's true.

’m just saying that one part of the American establishment might find some use in feeding the “neo-Nazi”, “bio-weapons”, “Russian genocide” narrative in a way that on their side grants plausible deniability while on the other side it can contribute to escalate tensions between Russia, Ukraine and EU. — neomac

That's what would normally happen. What's so unusual is there isn't plausible deniability. On the question of neo-Nazi's the West and Ukraine defence ministry had the assurance to everyone that "volunteers" (aka. Azov brigade) weren't doing any fighting and, sure, aren't "really Nazi's". Journalists went to record them fighting (which would mean, if US was following its own policies, that Ukraine should not get weapons and training support). The spokesperson of Azov brigade itself clarified they only have "10 to 20%" members who are Nazi's.

Then, this testimony of Nuland you'd think would have some plausible deniability, but she clarifies she's talking about stuff the Russian's shouldn't find and they need to work hard to make sure the Russian's don't find it ... which is alarming and also just weird as to why they didn't take care of it if they knew the war was coming as US intelligence publicly claimed.

This is what's so odd in these subjects, is that you'd expect plausible deniability, which then, sure, whatever, who knows, but these issues don't have plausible deniability.

As much as Russia, its useful idiots and its useless troll army. — neomac

I do not claim the war is good for Russia. EU getting fucked doesn't exclude Russia getting fucked as well. But at least Russia is achieving something and getting at least whatever military gains they do get (even if it doesn't compensate the losses and sanctions, they'll at least get something).

What does the EU get? More or less the collapse of its immense soft power position in the world overnight, and nothing in return, except of course Russian gas.

We can not exclude that there are competing views within the American establishment toward this war. — neomac

Nuland is not commenting on the war, she's answering the direct question of whether there are bio-weapons in Ukraine.

And, this theory:

Others do not want to escalate it further. Maybe "fuck-the-EU" Nuland is dog-whistling to the Russian propaganda and intelligence on purpose, to galvanize them and maybe offer them a pretext for becoming even more reckless. In other words, Nuland and the piece of establishment she represents could be doing their dirty job by exploiting such ambiguous declarations in public hearings. — neomac

Is just more example of how bizarre apologetics for Nuland need to get to actually fit a theory to the facts.

Yeah, sure, maybe Nuland is trying to "galvanize them and maybe offer them a pretext for becoming even more reckless."

Certainly a good tactic, but the problem is that this is really not a good way to do that, as it obviously will play well to the Russian supporters of the war and consolidate support for the war, which makes the war less reckless.

Furthermore, if you did hatch such a plan, you wouldn't do the taunting in a senatorial hearing; the classic strategy for what you propose is to feed Russia false intelligence that can be easily disproved, denied or just ignored later.

So, maybe some elaborate prank ... always possible, or maybe "fuck-the-EU" Nuland just wants to do what she claims and fuck the EU by orchestrating a coup with neo-Nazi's, setting those neo-Nazi's up with means and resources and then institutional legitimacy, and then setting up bio-weapons labs for this neo-Nazi cesspool as she feels that's a good way to "fuck-the-EU" which is her stated desire.

EU has gotten fucked, has it not?

Don't bother tagging me, I am not reading your ignorant bullshit. — SophistiCat

It's her own words, even specifies whatever these biological materials are, shouldn't fall into enemy hands.

We wouldn't be talking about it if it wasn't a senatorial hearing.

People here have tried to argue things like "lab could mean anything" or then it's just normal bio-research or then it is bio-weapons research but that's totally legitimate and normal for defensive purposes.

But if you have a better explanation of Nuland's answer, feel free to debate that point of view on a debate forum.

Maybe consider the Western media attitude on this point that it can just be ignored ... is because there's no good answers that account for the facts and what's already admitted to by the US, not just Russia suddenly throwing stuff up on the internet.

Same problem with the neo-Nazi's, it's not just Russia claiming stuff, Western media has documented these guys since 2014, there's all sorts of reportages on them by all sorts of credible journalists ... in addition to what they self publish about themselves!

Totally agreed that anything coming solely from the Russians can be seriously doubted, no way to know if it's true or fabricated, the problem is the stuff coming from Western media and Western institutions. We can't just ignore what "our own side" says simply because it's inconvenient for hating the Russians more. And, of course, what "our own side" says makes the best propaganda for Russia ... doesn't mean Western institutions exposing or admitting to some problems or corruption or totally illegitimate intelligence operations, can't be discussed as that undermines the idea that only Russia is bad now, everyone else good, all Western policies and wars of aggression fought or backed we can just ignore the morality of now, the West pure now.

Also unlikely that they care about ethnic Russians NOT fighting the war either, because the civilians being bombed in Mariupol are in majority ethnic Russians. — Olivier5

Maybe, but I'm sure they would say "liberating" Mariupole from Azov brigade is for the greater good of ethnic Russians.

But how do you know what Putin feels? And it's a legitimate grievance any oppression, such as language suppression, of ethnic Russians, regardless of what Putin feels about it, his concern in negotiation is how it will play out for the Russian people who obviously do care about ethnic Russians.

Legitimate grievance just means there's a valid argument based on at least some facts that do exist, and not some bullshit made up argument.

But sure, you can criticise Putin, the Kremlin, the Russians all you want, doesn't suddenly white knight Ukrainians or the EU or NATO.

As I've explained, even a murderer, confessed to murder, can have legitimate grievances about a fair trial or sentencing or treatment by police and in jail. Having a legitimate grievance does not make a party "right" or "more right", only that it needs to be recognised, perhaps for moral reasons if we agree about the grievance, but for sure in the context of a negotiation. For instance, if the police suddenly need a murderer to testify against his mob boss or whomever, and the murderer has a bunch of legitimate grievances about conditions in jail ... maybe police are going to need to sort that out if they want a deal.

Of course, prisoner may push beyond what's legitimate (like a helicopter and 1 million dollars) and will obviously be turned down on those requests because they are not legitimate.

The first point about a legitimate grievance is that it matters to the counter party, so you obviously have to respond to it if you want something from the counter party, like a deal. Of course, then there's negotiation and a deal is reached or not, it's only the very first step which is trying to understand the counter-party's point of view and what they are complaining about and what they want and what they can offer.

Of course, if police don't want anything from a prisoner, and that prisoner is being mistreated, but there's nothing that prisoner can do ... then likely to just stay that way regardless of this mistreatment being a legitimate grievance.

Honestly, you don't? — Olivier5

I mean the idea NATO doesn't give an actual shit about Ukrainians, ethnic Russians or whoever, in Ukraine ... doesn't exclude the possibility that the Kremlin also doesn't give much of a shit about ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

First, certainly the Kremlin position is any ethnic Russians still in Ukraine fighting Russia are traitors, just like the Kremlin position is any ethnic Russia in Russia in anyway opposing the war is a traitor. So, unlikely they care about ethnic Russians fighting the war.

For ethnic Russians on Russia's side, likely the Kremlin does care about them (whether genuinely or for propaganda purposes, feel free to decide), and for these ethnic Russians Russia would likely state they started the war super soft to get everyone a chance to leave and also cities and towns that are pro Russian to give up (which does happen) and the "humanitarian assistance" that Russia is at least bringing some stuff ... compared to the West pulling out of Afghanistan and cutting all food and and child care funding and just letting those children starve to death.

Obviously Taliban will do a little corruption with whatever is given to Afghanistan, but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't distribute food if we sent it, nor allow NGO's to distribute the food directly, nor any reason to believe that's not the right thing to do even if Taliban somehow stop any food getting to anyone; but would that really be politically viable for the Taliban, that we send food and they simply throw it in the sea? And ... West has pulled out of Afghanistan and let the Taliban take-over ... so it's not like there's some political demand or reason for sanctions.

NATO just straight abandoned their Afghanistan people and their allies (all those hearts and minds they did manage to win over) and have now let them starve.

And, think of the budget that would be spent to keep NATO in Afghanistan even a few months longer and how must funds it would take to keep getting food into the country?

There's no longer interest in getting food to our Afghanistan "friends" because there's no more arms sales related to the issue.

↪boethius Likewise, if you want us to believe that the Russian government gives a rat's ass about the lives of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, do try and explain why Russian forces are bombing so many ethnic Russians in Ukraine... — Olivier5

Sure, yeah, I don't see how the proposals are mutually exclusive.

My basic thesis in this discussion is that two sides of the story are needed to reach a diplomatic solution.

Now, if Ukraine is going to win, and you care about Ukrainians, ok, no need for diplomacy, just let them "win" as the vast majority of Ukrainians seem to be in favour of fighting and winning and support Zelenskyy

However, if Ukrainians aren't going to win, the diplomacy now is almost always better than diplomacy tomorrow in this sort of situation.

Likewise, fighting to a stalemate ... only purpose is to then have a diplomatic resolution, so still requires both sides of the story (whatever we may morally think of any particular point or who's right and who's wrong or who's more right and who's less right and so on).

Russian state-controlled media is still pushing the "biolabs" story. — SophistiCat

Nuland literally answers this question about biolabs with with a non-no answer. If there was no bioweapons Nuland would just confidently state there's no bioweapons. Just like if she was asked if Ukaine had nuclear warheads and ICMB's ... she would just say "no, Ukraine does not have nuclear warheads and ICBM" as obviously it doesn't.



Things are not necessarily how they appear ... even the above video could be some deep cover Russian plant; difficult to tell, nothing is clear cut.

Anyone that can watch this video:



And maintain the West and NATO are sincere in their sudden concern for war victims ... feel free to explain how.

Well, The Germans did pocket whole armies when they attacked in 1941, so encirclement of enemy forces can be done basically anywhere. — ssu

Yes, but the Germans pocketed soviet armies using armor. Motti tactics are about encircling columns without armor, which was possible if the Soviets are stuck in long columns on roads through the forest and were also not prepared for Finnish winter.

And, as I've explained, the armor component to armor is somewhat secondary to the mobility part. If you simply can't get to the front without a tracked vehicle in a reasonable amount of time, then you can't reinforce a breakthrough to cut through enemy lines to encircle them.

In addition to just the speed problem, there's simply a limit to how much ammunition you can carry on foot, so even you do get to the front you maybe out of ammunition pretty quick, especially anything heavier than bullets (but they can go pretty fast too).

would not be surprised if the Russian army already lost 10,000 or more soldiers, and many more to come. — magritte

It maybe true Russia has suffered 10 000 losses or more. And in terms of casualties I would agree that's a reasonable figure. However, depends a lot on how casualties are defined; after a war it's usually killed and seriously wounded, but during a war the smallest of injuries can get infected and make you non-combat effective, even if you're back to basically 100% after a week in an infirmary.

These small injuries don't really matter in a conflict like Afghanistan (to US troops) as attacks are relatively infrequent, "low-intensity conflict" (compared to what's happening in Ukraine) and so they just go back to base and heal up and any given time there's some sick and wounded soldiers, but the don't accumulate.

However, in a high intensity conflict with shelling and explosions all over the place, people can get cut, concussed, fractured limbs or ribs, infected or just get sick due to stress and exhaustion, or simply reach their physical and psychological limits.

So, we'd need to know the statistics on these casualties, to decide if 10 000 is a big number or not.

And that's also the basic problem with all the negative reporting on the Russian military situation, it's really sparse data that doesn't give much statistical insight. The "Task and Purpose" video has a really good contrast (by someone a lot more qualified than me on these tactical issues) of a totally incompetent armor response to an ambush and a pretty competent response. It's entirely possible the incompetent response was because the tanks weren't even driven by a tank crew but just logistics people to get them to the front and it was believed the area was cleared (obviously a mistake).

However, ambushed don't take territory and unless they stop logistics completely, don't really change anything fundamentally. German U-boats sank plenty of merchant ships resupplying UK, but obviously enough got through for UK to hold out. In supplying some location where resupply can be targeted it's a question of if those losses are worth it for whatever strategic location is being supplied.

I expected that modern technology would have proven cumbersome tanks and even expensive airplanes obsoleted by this war. Movements of large machines can be tracked by satellites making them easy targets for attacks from the distance by small groups of scattered defenders armed with portable and shoulder fired rockets. — magritte

The problem is that everything has a counter. If you don't have tanks ... enemy use weapons and tactics that highly effective against an enemy without tanks, if you do have tanks they'll employ weapons and tactics to try to take out your tanks. Of course, you'll then try to deal with their anti-tank weapons and tactics and they'll try to deal with those.

Air power is definitely the tanks biggest weakness, and drones extremely effective air power for this purpose, so facing this threat counters will be developed, and then counters to those counters and so on.

So, to evaluate anything we need some statistical information of how much a given tank is able to accomplish before being destroyed, how many anti-tank drone missions can be done before the drone is destroyed (or drone command center targeted with cruise missiles), and so on. What we'd want to know is the Russian tank's survivability generally speaking in front line combat and against ambushes as well as the survivability of the crew.

We basically don't have any statistical information at all.

All we know is that Russia can take and hold territory in Ukraine pretty effectively, and regularly advances key positions, but we don't really know what the cost is to Ukraine or Russia. Are Russians regularly tactically retreating to inflict heavy losses ... or are Ukrainians methodologically tactically retreating to inflict heavy unsustainable losses.

We definitely don't know, my main purpose is to simply point out that Western media claims are totally unsubstantiated and can represent Russia winning as easily as Ukraine somehow winning.

I'll look this up. But do note that this was before the current war. — ssu

That's why it gives really context of what Russia's strategic doctrine may have been before going into the war.

The analysis is not biased by trying to interpret current events as it was done before.

A lot of actors do have genuine reasons to get a realistic picture of the war. — ssu

I don't say otherwise, but most material just so happens to be published by Ukraine as basically the foundation of their strategy is the social media battle, to get international support, to get weapons and sanction pressure on Russia, so publishing material to support the narrative that they are winning, or inflicting serious unsustainable losses on the Russians, is critical for that.

Even observers tying to be unbiased may not have any unbiased sources. Sure, you're free to believe Western intelligence sources are just unbiased truth tellers if you want.

What is really lacking is that Ukraine would make larger counterattacks and surround larger Russian units and hence use as Finland did in Winter War the famous motti-tactics. — ssu

Motti-tactics were specific to the Finnish Boreal Forest North of lake Lagoda, where the Russians were constrained to narrow roads to move any heavy equipment or supplies through the forest; Finns could use their advantage of ski and other winter forest tactics to cutup and destroy these columns (including excellent mortar teams trained precisely due to the near vertical terminal descent of mortars perfect for hitting targets between tall trees). It should also be noted that the Soviet Union was still wary of and positioned for a war with the Nazi's and Stalin purged some 90% of the officers. So these weren't Russia's best troops and officers sent into said forest / death trap.

However, south of lake Lagoda there is more of an open plane of farmland that the Finns must defend a more traditional line against armor and artillery, but there's a big bottle neck between the lake and the gulf of Finland where a small force can hold hold a line against a larger force due to the constrained space making flanking maneuvers impossible and the entire region will be impassible mud for armor and artillery come spring--hence "the Winter War".

The situation was very different.

Notice that the map hasn't changed much for days. — ssu

This is the basic pattern of the war, as forward operating bases need to be built, and defenses to protect them, to supply forces for the next step (otherwise armor just runs out of fuel as we saw in the first days of the war). Russia has a unit dedicated to building tactical pipelines for example, which apparently has been stealing tractors from farmers for digging and landscaping for this project.

The other reason there's a pause is that Kiev has been nearly encircled, which means the affect of this will be tested diplomatically and also strategy rethought considering this strategic objective being achieved (consolidate, move forces around, decide and plan the next military operations). For example, Russia may decide Kiev is encircled "enough" and so dig in where they are now to focus on other objectives, or decide to storm the capital, or decide to fully encircle the capital.

Lastly, there may not be a pause at all, but rather the next critical step is not taking more territory but something more subtle when looking at a map of the entire country.

Or maybe there's a pause as things are falling apart, and casualties and losses are unsustainable.

It's very difficult to tell, but a few days pause, even if literally nothing much was happening, may indicate a setback or may indicate Russia is simply preparing it's next major offensives and moving things into position.

All the anti-tank weapons are definitely clearly dangerous, but what we don't know is if Russia has developed effective counter tactics. Russia has had experience with a lot of anti-Tank weapons in Syria and developed counter tactics in that context, but the environment was very different and they weren't NATO's best in stock. We really have almost no insight into what Russian generals are thinking of these weapon systems (except obviously they'd rather them not be there; so, if they simply inflict unsustainable losses without any counter-tactic, then Russia will likely dig in where they are now; but if they, at least feel, they can deal with them somehow, then we may see major offensives demonstrating that confidence--I honestly don't know what the situation is with the ATGM's, except both sides are trying to learn and adapt, and they clearly haven't stopped Russian getting to wherever they are now).

For those confused about the current mainstream maps getting more and more ambiguous, such as replacing Russia "territory" with arrows, there's 2 reasons for this.

There's a good faith reason that journalists simply don't know the situation on the ground. At the start of the war there were journalists a bit everywhere and almost everything was documented on social media.

It's sort of the reverse of pre-telegraph times where the start of a war was the most confusing and word travels on foot and can be inaccurate and rumors spread on purpose by enemy spies and so on, and the reality becomes clearer only over time. And also "journalists" didn't necessarily exist at all.

However, there's also a bad faith reason of "map propaganda" in that if one wants to make the argument Russia has completely stalled ... one simply need not update the map for a few days to give that impression. Likewise, a pro-Russian source may do the opposite and so paint as much of the map Russian as can be possibly argued. So, whereas both pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian maps of the war started out largely agreeing, I have noticed they can now be really far apart (not just between different partisans but also even between the same partisans maps can now be very different).

There is one mapper that not only seems genuinely making an effort to be as objective as possible, but even makes videos explaining sources and confidence level of different reports as well as tactical implications and what's been reported about different battles.



It's so far the most insight into what's actually happening on the ground I have found so far, and where things are very unclear (basically still internet rumors with no confirmation) it at least gives insight into the tactical stakes in different battles and fronts (such as if the rumor is true what that may mean etc.).

My first comment on this thread was mainly asking for insight into how Russian's perceive things, to balance out the inundation of what Westerners think.



This video is pretty good for that purpose.

Here's some analysis of the fog of war situation from someone who's actually been in a war.



He also comments on the use of conscripts situation and that they seem useless to him as front line soldiers.

It definitely could be a "send the cannon fodder situation" but from what I can tell we're not talking about a lot of conscripts.

For me, the buildup is over a year and conscripts will simply be integrated into the war games and training, so it makes sense to me that they'd just be deployed like everyone else, especially in a chaotic 1 week to plan situation (again, that has many cons, but means Ukraine has no time to deploy their own conscripts).

I think it's really difficult to evaluate what risk Putin saw in the current situation happening, and maybe none, but it seems clear to me that both Putin and Russian generals would want to avoid a Ukrainian sizable conscript deployment along the West of the Dnieper and Belarus border, with all the bridges wired to blow. Even if Russia then takes the East side it's not really a victory as that would be exactly Ukraine's strategy.

In any case, to understand decisions you have to know what risks they were intended to mitigate. There can be a lot of negative consequences for a decision, but if it mitigated worse risks then it may still be the best one, and certainly rational.

It's possible Russia is somehow losing, but it's also possible they are happy the West thinks they are losing so that Ukraine keeps on fighting so they can destroy more of their military capacity (the stated 'de-militarization" objective which Putin told the Finnish president was currently 'happening'). Of course, the negative is Russia is certainly experiencing losses, but without knowing how many and some idea of the acceptable loss level, it's basically impossible to evaluate the Kremlin's view of things and what motivates decision making.

This entire process is Zelenski and the West calling Russia's bluff, and now Russia calling the West's bluff.

Who's actually bluffing ... we'll find out soon enough.

Completely agreed, and those governments will therefore soon want the conflict to be resolved one way or another.

The party (that they can influence) that can most easily end the conflict is NATO, by stopping the supply of weapons (or just negotiate behind the scenes, and then telling Zelensky to accept the deal or the arms supplies ... well, aren't necessary going to stop but, it would be a damn shame if anything were to happen to them once in Ukraine--there's a nice supply line of ATGM's here, I wouldn't want to see anything to happen to it, capiche, kind of remark).

↪boethius, the Nazi thing wasn't in Putin's demands (other than used as a pretext/excuse perhaps). Either way, UN peacekeepers ain't up to him to decide, as he apparently thinks, only to go in with his bombs blazing instead. — jorndoe

Legitimate grievances are rarely directly addressed in a resolution, rather compensation is represented in some way to make the deal acceptable.

For example, if a company screws up, they may offer you a gift card to "resolve the issue", they won't commit to writing that they accept whatever the grievance is has any legitimacy; it's their offer that represents that and their proposal to solve it.

Russia knows that the Ukraine and NATO will never admit to a neo-Nazi problem, so there's no use in negotiating that directly. Most leverage in a negotiation is implied. Someone much bigger and stronger than you shouldn't need to actually point that out if "you're in their seat".

Completely agree.

However, Russia is also currently holding the world's food hostage. This is going to create a log of diplomatic pressure from all sorts of countries on NATO to resolve the crisis.

On-top of the Ukraine-Russian military struggle, there's also this battle of wills. Russia is hurting from the sanctions ... but the whole world is hurting from the sanctions as well as commodity price increases. At some point, various "neutral" governments, that NATO still "needs" to deal with for various reasons, are simply not going to care who wins or loses the fight ... only that their people are gong to be able to eat.

What we can be sure of is that the whole situation is tense.

Thanks for these insights, always pause for thought someone describing something happening today ... about a century ago.

Reminds me of a passage from Marx about how the "liberal" party of UK, whatever it was called at the time, just represents the aristocrats and their fellow rich friends that benefit from economic liberalisation and getting rid of the rest of aristocratic privileges, and they'll never deliver on their "ideals" of freedom and equality and the rest of it; that it's all talk and you'll never see actions no matter their majority in parliament ... it will always be close but "shucks, can't do it".

↪boethius For what it's worth, the Ukrainian side estimates that the Russians will have exhausted their stock of cannon fodder by end April - early May.

With any luck, Ukraine can save part of their wheat harvest, that should take place in June I think. If the conflict last longer, the harvest will be compromised, with significant repercussions on food prices and possibly famines in a number of food-importing countries. — Olivier5

Even if true about the cannon fodder, which is certainly difficult for us to know, is this leverage Ukraine has on Russia, or leverage Russia has on Ukraine and the entire world?