A picture's worth a thousand words.

... obviously I'll be also writing many thousands anyways, but for now I need to go do a little partying; forget about people actively trying to bring about World War III, if only a little while.

I wouldn't say that would be reason to assume they are collapsing. — ssu

My original phrasing is simply that this is the last remaining objective on Russia's list of objectives, and it's certainly seems achievable.

Yet Finland existed, wasn't occupied. What else is there for Ukraine? Likely there won't be Ukrainian tanks on the Red Square either, so they can't "win" in the traditional sense. — ssu

Exactly why Finland accepted defeat and negotiated a peace with significant territorial concessions, including Finland losing its biggest fresh water body (Lake Ladoga, even if only counting by half!), and Finland's access to the Arctic Ocean ... and also a agricultural and cultural heartland from which comes a large part of Finland's nation defining epic book:

The Kalevala (Finnish: Kalevala, IPA: [ˈkɑleʋɑlɑ]) is a 19th-century work of epic poetry compiled by Elias Lönnrot from Karelian and Finnish oral folklore and mythology — Kalevala, Wikipedia

Finnish Karelia was a historical province of Finland — Karelia, Wikipedia

Key word "was".

I would not say the wars with the Soviet Union was winning anything, but a great loss.

These were major concessions for the sake of peace because:

A. The cost of war is very real.
B. There was no way to "win" against the Soviet Union.

Something was done, even if what the West did was to produce an extremely corrupt system which was totally unsustainable. — ssu

... Yes, indeed, I see what you're saying, and I do indeed think it's wise to predict the same process in Ukraine.

Kim Dotcom ...

Now there's a name I've not heard in a long, long time.

A long time.

That is illogical. — ssu

Why would it be "illogical" to assume someone's states objectives aren't their real objectives?

Now, of course everyone always rather things go even better than achieving their goals, the rosy outcome as you say, but there is a difference between objectives and what one would prefer to happen.

OK, on what do you base this assumption on? — ssu

There's a lot fog of war and certainly anything is "possible", but while everything else has being going on in Ukraine, Russia has been bombarding and bombing the Dombas front for a month now.

There's a material and man-power degradation of these lines that is reasonable to assume is pretty severe.

There's also a psychological affect on these front line Ukrainian soldiers.

And then there is the fact that the Dombas line is 17 hour continuous drive from resupply in Poland but only 1 and half hour drive from Russia.

Of the news that comes from this area, it seems Russia has broken through in key places already.

Well, just like it worked with Finland both in the Winter War and the Continuation War. War of attrition does work. — ssu

The Winter war ended because of the Nazi's invading the Soviet Union.

Finland accepted defeat to end the continuation war. Finland did not "win" against Russia.

War of attrition for the purposes of a negotiated resolution on better terms, accepting defeat and giving up 20% of territory, "works".

But Ukraine keeps taking off the table even the possibility of any negotiated settlement because of "the views" as far as I can tell.

What better outcome can Ukraine fight for, compared to accepting Crimea is now Russian (something everyone agrees won't change), that Ukraine will not join NATO (something NATO told Zelensky would never happen before the war ... yet Zelensky chose to fight to join NATO anyways), and accepting the Dombas as independent states (again, no one argues these regions aren't massively pro-Russian nor that there's any way to militarily take them back)?

I don't think anybody considers it a win. Not even the future contractors that will build (again) Ukrainian cities after this war. — ssu

Then we agree it's not a win, and also yet to be seen the Wests generosity when it comes to rebuilding rather than destroying things. I didn't see all that much actual building anything in Afghanistan these last 20 years ... definitely felt more like a destructive process than an act of love, as was advertised until literally a few months ago.

Of course, Afghani's aren't white, so that's certainly a big factor in comparing their current state and Ukraine's future state after the West "is done playing with their toys".

Jingoistic imperialism usually fades away after wars that have been failures. Don't forget that Putin views independent Ukraine as an "artificial construct". If those kind of delusional attitudes can be changed, that would be a good start. — ssu

One can disagree, but it's not delusional. The West's own scholars call borders imposed by the great powers "artificial" and just cause internal division and civil wars, without benefiting any of the internal ethnicities, all the time ... just as we've seen play out in Ukraine.

I understand that one has to be sceptical about Western media, however one shouldn't forget that:
a) Ukraine is a huge country, b) It has large armed forces, c) it has shown the will to fight and d) it is supported by a huge alliance and finally e) Russia isn't Soviet Union and hasn't the former's resources. — ssu

Again, the effectiveness of asymmetric handheld systems against Russian armor (without which NATO pouring into Urkaine, would have been totally routed already) ... does not mean Ukraine can somehow rout the Russians without armor.

That Russia has plentiful armor and fuel and logistics isn't somehow a disadvantage, even if Ukrainians can inflict losses on Russian advances.

The core utility of tracked armor is mobility and just being able to get to the front in the first place.

All the above facts make it totally possible that the outcome is a standstill with neither side reaching it's rosiest objectives. To assume that Russia will inevitably win and reach it's objectives is a long shot. — ssu

Sure, Urkainian total capitulation would have been the most rosiest outcome, but there is no evidence Russia's core objectives aren't exactly what it's stated, and will be accomplished with the collapse of the Dombas front (which seems to me in the process of collapsing).

Neither side is yet, after a month, is really willing to cease operations and declare that their objectives have been met. Of course both sides will declare victory...but when and at what cost. Thinking that either side will abruptly now collapse isn't realistic. — ssu

How does Ukraine just declare victory if its territory is being occupied and it's set for itself the objective of zero territorial concessions?

True, Russia can just declare victory at each step, as the only goals its ever stated have already been achieved and so all further objectives are just bonus.

If Ukrainians cannot, regardless of the amount of ATGM's and Manpads poured into Ukraine, actually push the Russians back to their borders ... how does a war of attrition (in a "stalemate") work in Ukraines favour?

I think that NATO and US are far more timid than they were in the proxy wars during the Cold War. The Polish MiG-29 debacle clearly shows that. In truth if the fighters would have been painted to Ukrainian colours and flown by Ukrainian pilots to Ukraine wouldn't have resulted in WW3. — ssu

Proxy wars during the cold war were not on Russia's border, only Afghanistan was even on the USSR's border ... and, only hand held missiles were supplied, same as we see now.

Vietnam saw US pilots up against Russian pilots, but this was far from either of their borders.

And note that Zelensky would be all too happy about a "no-fly-zone" made up with Ukrainian manned Soviet legacy system (that would have been imported from NATO countries). — ssu

This is simply impossible to achieve from any practical perspective.

I think this war will go on far longer than anybody anticipated and be more bloody and ruinous for both sides than anybody thought. — ssu

There's really no reason to assume the Kremlin did not think of the current possibility more-or-less.

The initial "failed" invasion (that occupied some 15-20% of the country in a day) was achieved with less than half the amassed force (some estimate a third) ... of which the only logical interpretation was that the rest of the force was in reserve for plan B.

Even Western media just end their "Russia is bogged down" narrative with "grumble-grumble Russia has made gains in the South" ... well, maybe it was the South that had the strategic objectives and sophisticated planning went into that operation, other fronts the objective of just advancing until resistance and then tying up Ukrainian forces (as there is no long-term plan of occupying territory in the North, just pressure the capital).

At least Ukraine has the nice prospect of refurbishing all that old infrastructure after the "urban renovation" from the Russian Army and Air Force with Western aid. — ssu

I do not think any Ukrainian views this as a "win" ... and I fear Western generosity may run into all those "realists" after all, when it comes to pouring in tangible love rather than arms.

For Russia this might be an ordeal like the Russo-Japanese war, which didn't go so well afterwards in the domestic scene for the Czar. — ssu

It's possible ... but, again, if this is the likely "cost" to the Russians, how does that help any Ukrainian?

If this is the basic logic, NATO is just cutting off Ukrainian's nose to spite Ukrainians face.

Sure, fun times for NATO, they're definitely excited about it.

addresses the USSR:

No, no, no, Whitehouse is just taking a page out of the Kremlins playbook, and gonna beat Putin at his own game:

The firehose of falsehood, or firehosing, is a propaganda technique in which a large number of messages are broadcast rapidly, repetitively, and continuously over multiple channels (such as news and social media) without regard for truth or consistency. An outgrowth of Soviet propaganda techniques, the firehose of falsehood is a contemporary model for Russian propaganda under Russian President Vladimir Putin. — Firehose of falsehood

That's why you hear the Whitehouse contradicting itself, and Western media declaring victory everyday, they're just winning the information war, just as literally the director of the CIA unironically explained to us on live television that Ukraine is winning the information war ... and also everything Russia says is false.

And people have good reason to take what the director of the CIA says at face value, for the unofficial motto (i.e. something not admitted to but a covert action) of the CIA is "And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free," and people just want to be free after all, so obviously CIA only tells them the God honest truth in all circumstances.

23 days ago:

As Putin himself said "all outcomes are acceptable"?

Western media takes it as a foregone conclusion that this was a "miscalculation" by Putin ... because it's played so poorly in the Western press and Western nations have flocked to offer moral support and a bit of hardware and economic sanctions.

However, the Kremlin has been preparing itself for this exact threat by the West since 2014, building redundancies for all critical systems and scaling up economic ties with China.

Of course, Oligarchs are punished via their Western assets ... but the Kremlin may not actually care about that, — boethius

Also 23 days ago:

Oh, and the most ludicrous, that "declaring" renewables are now a priority is sticking it to the Russians somehow. "In 50 to 100 years will be independent on Russian natural resources. Haha! take that Russia!". I work in the renewable energy sector ... and this idea is so insanely idiotic, it severely discredits every politician that repeats it. — boethius

22 days ago:

The large size of Ukraine makes total occupation difficult / impossible, but, the large size of Ukraine makes a lot of land grabbing easy. For the same reason Russia can't easily occupy all of Ukraine, Ukraine cannot easily defend all of Ukraine. — boethius

20 days ago:

The problem with the "boohoo commodity price increase global economic disaster; the war is such a terrible disaster" is that if you provide no incentive for Russia to participate in the global economy ... but are going to buy their commodities anyways, and China isn't going to leave a fellow tyrant hanging, then this isn't a "bad result" for the Kremlin. Certainly immoral to cause such a disaster, but if the world plays hardball with Putin ... what's the argument that Putin should play softball back.

And indeed, once the war is over and Western leaders are dealing with even worse inflation, people may not accept the argument "their suffering is necessary for Ukrainians to have prolonged a war for a true apex of virtue signaling on social media; literal victory through defeat" for long. — boethius

Literally yesterday:

That’s why — (applause) — that’s why I came to Europe again this week with a clear and determined message for NATO, for the G7, for the European Union, for all freedom-loving nations: We must commit now to be in this fight for the long haul. We must remain unified today and tomorrow and the day after and for the years and decades to come. (Applause.)

It will not be easy. There will be costs. But it’s a price we have to pay. Because the darkness that drives autocracy is ultimately no match for the flame of liberty that lights the souls of free people everywhere. — Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine

We will fight to the last Ukrainian!! — (applause) — There will be costs — (applause) — mostly to Ukrainians and all poor people around the world affected by food and fuel price increases!!! — (applause) — But it's a price I'm willing to let Ukrainians and poor people pay!!! — (applause) — For the long haul!!! — (applause) —

Every Ukrainian soul literally lit on fire — (applause) — by Russian artillery and air strikes and hyperbaric munitions I literally masterbate over when the US drops them on brown people — (applause) — lights the way to freedom!!!!! — (applause) —

— (applause) — Just like those torch lit marches by neo-Nazi's — (applause) — lit the way to freedom!!! in 2014!!! — (applause) — (applause) — (applause)

19 days ago:

For the overall outcome on the war of all these measures, I personally don't see Russia losing.

Their strategy is pretty simple:

1. Keep pressure on all fronts.
2. Advance each day on weakest fronts
3. Avoid urban combat unless necessary
4. Cutoff all supply lines and wait things out
5. Build out their logistics methodically — boethius

The situation now is they've occupied key highways, and can degrade Ukrainian logistics on the remaining roots by air and missile strikes. As mentioned previously, the Dombas front is 1000 km away from the Polish border and may be effectively cutoff from supplies already.

In the meantime, Russia has consolidated its fronts (why they have transformed into straight lines on maps) and worked out its logistics in Ukraine (something that simply takes time, linking / building rail and even tactical pipelines), and absolutely recking Azov battalion in Mariupole ("de-nazification").

And Chechnya is literally part of Russia. Saying using your own citizens who are literally soldiers as soldiers is some form of weakness ... is just stupid. Russia is a culturally diverse place, so it's as unusual as seeing Latin-Americans and African-American's in the US army. OMG they're using their own citizens with arguably the most experience in urban combat to fight Azov in urban combat!

Luckily Ukrainians under siege know how to win on social media instead, and so dipped their bullets in lard and posted that to twitter, so I'm sure the Chechnians now have servere moral problems, as we've been hearing about in Russian forces for a month, and will lose any day now.

20 days ago:

"""
LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.
— Reuters
"""

There's zero reason to assume this offer isn't genuine.

Unless Ukraine has some way to "win", then Russia will simply implement these conditions by force. — boethius

I don't disagree if you're talking about non-military things. For sure, war and sanctions isn't good for normal Russians.

But the competition is between states. Normal Americans and normal Chinese people don't benefit from the war either, but, certainly, neither normal Ukrainians.

Agreed, that China and US states (i.e the elites that run them) win in this war and EU loses. The insanity of committing to buy LNG gas from the US and build all that infrastructure ... even though the war will be long over, and normalising trade relations would be an immense diplomatic tool to actually end the war and bring peace (... never hear the EU saying that ... that peace would have benefits to everyone), and it's just using the war as an excuse to do the US's bidding.

However, even so, China's benefit is in anyways Russias benefit, as they are besties now.

US pivots towards China (this isn't viewed as a big warm hug by the Chinese), Russia comes to China and says the logical thing: "the US views you as their enemy, they talk about it all the time, they have no shame saying so, now they bring their ships and their planes and their submarines and their missiles to your shores, which are moves of war and not of peace--even though we Russians know you Chinese are a peaceful people and have never invaded us nor taken anything that wasn't rightfully yours--but war has come to you, even if neither of us want it we must accept that as a fact, and what I suggest, is that we are in fact in this together, and that this 'pivot' to threaten you, the US talks about, that it is simply the reasonable move in response, if we look on a map, to open a second front with the US, and force them to commit troops to defend in the West too: I can do this, bring American soldiers back to Europe, now that they leave the Middle East in fiery ruins, and, if you feel the same way, that we are in this together, then I will do this for you. For we Russians know the treachery of the Americans and have learned to deal with it, and we will take this heat in the West so you may have peace in the East."

Now, the US, indeed does benefit with harming their real competition (the EU) ... but can they say the same thing as the Russian state can: that they are also helping their allies in so doing?

And for those accusing me of being a Russian propagandist, simply seeing someone's point of view and what persuasive arguments they can make and reasonable strategic decisions they can make to advance their stated goals or defend themselves against a party that has no hesitation nor qualification in calling them the enemy, doesn't mean I agree with such arguments. If I was Putin, I'd go to Xi and say: "Have you heard of decentralised grass roots anarchism, pretty rich tradition, don't want to brag but Nordic style participatory creative education was actually an anarchist idea and first developed in anarchist schools, it's pretty cool actually, kids a lot happier and even more productive economically! who knew ... and, umm, and I have here a few brochures here I'm going to leave with you, ok just putting them under this gold paper weight, just take a look when you have a moment and think about it, my number's on the bottom there if you have any questions, and ... we're actually having a little anarcho-get-together in a few weeks at the Kremlin / new local community soup kitchen, feel welcome to come check it out, have a few drinks, maybe bring North Korea along--honestly, I feel they could actually really use a hot soup right now, and, you know, we're there for them."

Stakes are much higher here but it seems fine to us to risk escalation because of the underdog narrative or whatever. — Baden

To be fair, Rocky's epic duel with Ivan Drago is both a cinematic master piece and "feels" how reality actually works by divine scriptwriter intervention.

Ivan Draggo had overwhelming advantage. Russia has overwhelming advantage.

Rocky had heart. Ukraine has heart.

Ivan Draggo lost anyways. Russia will therefore lose anyways.

It's honestly difficult to argue with.

Same reason everyone was rooting for the Taliban all these years, and now super happy they "defended their country" and defeated the more powerful military and have returned to power to defend their nation and culture, such as barring girls over 11 from going to school.

No. It's not their only option. How about starting with a) oil & gas embargo, b) migration crisis, c) naval blockade, d) whatever else. Having a panic attack like some about nukes in truth is the last option. — ssu

I mean only military option ... of which less Russian soldiers on the border would be relevant.

Though I agree chance of conventional war is low in Finland, Poland, Baltics ... it's unclear to me that increasing the chance of nuclear war in exchange, even slightly, is a positive outcome.

Literally first hit searching MOAB and Afghanistan:

Weekend Explosions - 5 months ago
Some of the best quality footage out there. RIP to PFC Kirkpatrick and to all the Afghan allies who lost their lives in these battles

Evander Colasimone - 5 months ago
amazing footage dude, and rest in peace to your teammate. i hope his family is doing well and i hope he's in a better place.

Sturmmann - 4 months ago
One of the best combat footage I've seen. Much respect for US troops

Miniard - 3 months ago
@Vegan Zombie lmao wow

someonebroken - 2 months ago
@Vegan Zombie it's also because of them that you can comment on YouTube...sooo

mori remembers - 2 months ago (edited)
@Vegan Zombie They are human same as you and I, they (soldiers) had a choice to fight for a cause. We humans strive to become more than what we are, we try to have a good society, and blood is a price, sadly. War is something almost nobody wants but through history it(war) is needed.

POVHFR Videos - 3 weeks ago
100th like. Yes, absolutely agree. — youtube wisdom about hyperbaric bombs pre-Russia-might-get-advantage-fromt-them

And my favourite:

JewFricans - 3 months ago
Stopped everything I was doing when I found this vid to watch. This is the most RAW and some of the most intense war footage I’ve ever seen. Nothings not shown. from intense ass firefights to just smacking that basketball around and managing to still find some fun things to do. This is probably the most underrated youtube video i’ve come across in a very long time. Thank you and everyone else for your service, even with the film can’t imagine what you all went through. not even sure how y’all sit down with balls that fkn big

Peter K - 3 months ago
Just goes to show how ridiculous it is in video games when nothing jams or malfunctions, you don’t need to worry about timing and headspace on the 50, you can flick the Gustav open with two fingers, the AT4 slides apart like it just came off the production line… thank you and everyone else in these clips for your service. Many feel obligated to share their opinions these days but few could ever do what y’all do — youtube badass

But can't forget the classics, shoutout to:

Nicholas -1 month ago
These men literally have trucks full of freedom. They have everything. Mortars, Sniping rifles, different shoulder fired missiles, heavy machine guns, grenade launcher pistols literally everything. — A true freedom fighter

And lot's more super valuable military analysis, like "Mike Sierra: looks like Abdul got some that day." (The actual MOAB explosion, Abdul "getting some", to thunderous applause, is at the end of the video.)

And yes, I'm ashamed to admit it, but Peter K is right, I have been sharing my opinions these days ... instead of bringing freedom to Afghanistan. I haven't even started ordering from Amazon any freedom supplies, much less started packing my truck with it (and I don't have a truck! That's how unpatriotic of an American I've allowed myself to become).

What was the chain of command and military justification on this one?

Jack- 5 months ago
I can just imagine the phone call to Donald Trump asking if they have clearance to use the Moab. I bet you it was Trump's idea he was probably like okay these a-holds are dug in can we drop a nuke no can't do that okay what's the next best thing oh the Moab that's right and then in his Trump famous voice he says do it just do it, do it.

Jack (replying to himself)- 5 months ago
That's funny the guy took some shrapnel in the butt lol. — Jack

And since everyone seems to have forgotten, the whole foundation of the world's previous nuclear diplomatic structure (... involving all the treaties that the US pulled out of) ... was the fact that there's nothing logically stopping a nuclear power from extorting non-nuclear powers, except other Nuclear powers.

Of course, if North Korea launched a nuclear weapon into South Korea or at Japan, its entire military capacity would be immediately obliterated by nuclear weapons ... so that would the end of that.

However, that problem is solved by simply having enough nuclear weapons.

So, previously, immense diplomatic effort was put into creating workable international relations where a nuclear power, aka. Russia, has no incentive to use nuclear weapons to easily win a war, knowing, when nuclear push comes to nuclear shove, that NATO will not use strategic nuclear weapons simply to punish Russia for using tactical nuclear weapons to win a war ... that is only happening because NATO pumps in billions of dollars worth of weapons and many, many, many billions more worth of intelligence.

However, since hyperbaric weapons exist, and are cheaper and more tactically useful as a "giant bomb", Russians ... I guess fortunately in a a sense, will just use those, as we're seeing.

The reason the West complains about them is simply that they are a game changing weapon against a bunch of dug in infantry / Taliban, that the US also uses in the exact same situation of dug in infantry actually causing an conventional military problem.

So it's waiinnn, unfair. Which is the Western media standard of assessment: Russia using it's overwhelming fire power--which if it doesn't use we call them idiots for not using--is unfair and thus Russia has "lost" by using the exact same tactics as the US in similar situation.

For, US has also dropped hyperbaric weapons for the exact same reason (and when there's video of it, social media is alight with glee and celebration, and explaining how clever and effective and painful it is for the enemies of the US and there's nothing they can do about it etc.); it's not the case that the US even adheres to the standard it's judging Russia by now, as "fair" and fighting "unfair" according to this standard is losing by winning.

I will welcome Russian tanks in my street if it avoids a nuclear war. Nothing, absolutely nothing, is worth a strategic nuclear escalation. — Benkei

It's incredible that this is the irresponsible, reckless and immoral attitude in today's "media-scape".

As long as the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine, there are few Russian soldiers on our border and near my summerplace (which is on the border). :smile: — ssu

... yeah ... true, but that just means Russia's only option to deal make their point of Finland not joining NATO is with nuclear weapons.

I don't feel all that safer about the fact Russian soldiers are tied up in Ukraine and NATO is escalating tensions ... with the explicit goal to bleed the Russians and collapse the Russian state, which Russia has said it would use Nuclear weapons in that exact scenario NATO desires.

None of the retired generals or NATO officials or NATO heads of state explain to us how giving Ukrainians weapons will lead to their deliverance from the war, Russia's aggression, or any positive outcome for the Ukrainians at at all.

They just praise their bravery and are literally giddy about bleeding the Russians and "giving Russia their Afghanistan".

It makes "social media sense" only because Zelenskyy makes speeches that tap into Western victory nostalgia, and asks for weapons ... so of course we'll give him weapons, he's just so cute.

However, the only plan I can tell Zelenskyy ever had was to cause so much suffering of Ukrainian civilians that NATO would be forced, while creating that "fighting against impossible odds" every Western war and super movie presents (and also associated with victory) -- that, seeing such suffering and "Englishman" bravery, that NATO, being such morally upstanding altruistic people without any self interest whatsoever, to intervene with a no-fly-zone (which, after Libya, doesn't mean "you can't fly here", but that every single military asset can be bombed as any asset could in theory support an air asset ... of course, a logic only just so happens to apply only to one side in the conflict that NATO happens to want to destroy).

Now, maybe there's some secret plan, and all this was just "cover", but it's difficult to believe.

Competent military strategy would have been to mobilise before Russia invaded and took lot's of territory uncontested. However, that would not have played well in social media, as there would be no reasons for stunts like handing out small arms to civilians.

As to propaganda: the idea that anyone will win is propaganda. Everyone will lose on both sides, because that's what a war of attrition is, the last man standing takes possession of the smoking ruins. — unenlightened

The problem is this is simply not true.

There is zero fighting happening on Russian soil and, except for NATO using nuclear weapons (we we shouldn't "want"), zero way for Ukrainians to win militarily.

Military campaigns should have an achievable military objective.

Now, had Ukraine "put up a fight" and then accepted the peace terms offered, that was clearly the minimum Russia would accept (and far away from just taking over the whole country, which obviously they would have done if Ukraine just surrendered immediately), then that's a reasonable military action.

However, there's simply no way to fight Russia to lower peace terms, and, after rejecting the lowest they would be willing to accept, then Russia will be demanding more and more to compensate the cost of continued fighting ... and, unfortunately, the logic quickly becomes that, due to all the bad press from the West spinning Russia is losing by winning somehow, a decisive military victory is needed.

When Western generals lambast the Russians on TV for not using their overwhelming fire power, rather than pointing out the obvious the low-intensity of the first phases of the war were for laudable moral / political reasons ... what does Russia say? Russian generals answer "well, I'll show you high intensity warfare if that's what you want".

Western media goes on and on about how Russia hasn't achieved total air superiority, but then fails to mention Russia is doing 300 bombing sorties a day.

Not achieving immediate total air superiority is also a completely ludicrous criticism. US achieves this fighting irregular forces with ... zero air power and defence whatsoever.

However, US lost a F-117 in Yugoslavia, because any military more sophisticated than the Taliban and ISIS can keep SAM sites hidden and moving around and turn them on for very short engagements to fire a missile. SAM systems are not all on, all the time and you can just go and blow them up.

In addition, Ukraine has CIA intelligence and NATO weapons and training, so the idea of measuring military progress compared with fighting the Taliban, which is basically the Western media uses as a metric, is just crazy.

Of course, if you're saying Russians will also lose "morally" and also lose troops and equipment as well as economically, I agree. Russian people won't be better off due to this war. However, they definitely can win militarily whereas Ukraine has no pathway to victory, and continued fighting, since passing up the minimum offer, simply causes more harm and will result in worse conditions for peace.

And the logic is now completely contradictory: we're told that Russians are losing and getting a spanking and are so incompetent, but also if Ukraine doesn't fight to the last man, fight the Russians in Ukraine rather than in NATO ... the Russia is going to just steam roll into Poland?

How does that even make sense?

Here's finally some good analysis of claims made and repeated on Western media.



Really concise analysis a historian, well, or so he calls himself ... history will be the judge of that.

At the end of the video, he mentions -- as @Benkei has already -- that more evidence of context is required to assert war crimes especially if the only evidence we have access so far is provided by one side, and, even more intellectually honest, that we can also argue war crimes by the Ukrainians ... with their own material.

That's exactly why, personally, I prefer to analyze it in terms of a conflict between geopolitical spheres of interests. The "conspiracy" may or may not exist but the conflict is generally acknowledged and beyond dispute. — Apollodorus

We definitely agree on this point. Different political structures will manage their interests in their own idiosyncratic way.

Indeed, the only reason we have the concept of "conspiracy" in the sense of some large scale political thing going on, is because we have the concept of democracy, and they are incompatible.

No one's claiming Xi is some paragon of transparency and openness and just an "noraml guy" you'd just want to have a beer with.

Unfortunately, the facts are disputed and denied by the ignorant (or disingenuous) who scream "conspiracy theory" the minute you suggest that at least some of the causes of the conflict may lie not with Russia but with the West. — Apollodorus

No argument with you there. Which is exactly why I don't join in the "conspiracy theorist" smearing as it's a double edged sword ... even if I didn't find even the most outlandish conspiracies theories entertaining and at least interesting exercise to work out exactly why I disagree, and did want such discourse "banned", what goes around comes around.

This, of course, is facilitated by the media and its political masters or collaborators. Take Zelensky's claim that the end of the world has arrived or that Russia is trying to exterminate the Ukrainian people in a "final solution", for example:

"They are saying these words again — ‘the final solution’ — in relation to us, the Ukrainian nation ... it was said at a meeting in Moscow ..." — Apollodorus

Super weird to use the wording "again" ... as if we can actually exorcize all our Western demons and cast them into Putin.

I think it's paywalled for non-academic access so briefly... Dr Caplan is suggesting

All research, both ongoing and new, must cease immediately. Whatever can be done to minimize harm to existing subjects in a short period of time ought to be done, but that is it. — Isaac

I don't get this part. Cease all research generally speaking? Or just in Russia?

Was he just about to say "We're going to impose a New World Order", but slightly changed the phrasing? — Apollodorus

Why I mention that the elites literally say this ... even after it has the reputation for being their conspiracy.

But does it represent some coherent plan ... or is it just a flex to use the expression?

However, I don't view "conspiracy research" as irrelevant, just that (from my point of view at least) it's more a journalism activity than philosophical or political project. As Noam Chomsky says about it, that they already got caught red handed starting a massive war that killed hundreds of thousands of people and destabilised the whole region, and faced no consequences, what more do you need?

Of course, where I disagree with Chomsky is simply that the truth of whatever machinations the elite are up to is valuable for it's own sake, so I wouldn't say it's as irrelevant as Chomsky argues. However, plenty insane scandals have been revealed already by many credible journalists over the decades (Iran Contra, obviously Iraq, French shit we've been discussing) ... and it doesn't change anything in itself these scandals coming about.

The whole cathartic "and then the politicians went to jail / reported to the president" trope at the end of nearly every political thriller for decades ... until it was simply so unbelievable that they had to start changing that genre to way more mirky, if there's any moral point at all.

And indeed, the whole "conspiracy theorist" trope is literally documented as a FBI fabrication for propaganda purposes ... so, should beg the question: why?

However, be that as it may, there are forums dedicated to the topic. On a philosophy forum you may simply find it more efficient to either use facts that are supported by some journalist or institution that most here would likely accept, or then just use the word if rather than assertions to make your argument (people can then look into the premises on their own time).

Exactly, difficult to say Villepin was somehow squeaky clean, certainly at least knew how things worked ... or then not that smart after all.

Even people who liked Villepin that I would talk to would always finish with ... well then there was all this fucked up shit.

Un argument massue = a sledgehammer argument ? — Olivier5

This makes a lot more sense, thanks!

I had heard it originally as Massoud ... so, like, maybe Massoud has some referencable anti-Imperialist argument? that Villepin would reference Putin as making ... but then I discarded that possibility.

The book sounds really good, thanks for the tip.

Definitely so. He is convincing. He believes in what he says. His aura in France is that of a looser magnifique, a flibustering poet-diplomat. A bit passé now of course. — Olivier5

He's still a politician though, and associated the whole

In 2004, French judges were given a list by an anonymous source containing the names of politicians and others who, it was alleged, had deposited kickbacks from a 1991 arms sale to Taiwan into secret accounts at Clearstream, a private bank in Luxembourg. The most prominent name on the list was that of Nicolas Sarkozy, Villepin's rival for power in the UMP. The list was later shown to be fraudulent, a discovery Villepin kept from the public for 15 months at a time when the two men were vying for party supremacy.[17] Meanwhile, the source of the list was later revealed to be a longtime associate of Villepin's, one Jean-Louis Gergorin, an executive at EADS. Critics claimed that Villepin, perhaps with the support of then-president Jacques Chirac, had tried to defame his rival. Sarkozy, in turn, filed a suit against whoever was behind the creation of the Clearstream list. Villepin was eventually acquitted in 2010[18] (see #Clearstream trial below). — Villepin, Wikipedia

... A passage that paints Sarkozy as the victim--and maybe he was--but who later went on to get embroiled even larger corruption scandals involving kickbacks for submarines and just brief cases of cash from the Oreal fortune.

On 1 July 2014 Sarkozy was detained for questioning by police over claims he had promised a prestigious role in Monaco to a high-ranking judge, Gilbert Azibert, in exchange for information about the investigation into alleged illegal campaign funding. Mr Azibert, one of the most senior judges at the Court of Appeal, was called in for questioning on 30 June 2014.[153] It is believed to be the first time a former French president has been held in police custody, although his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, was found guilty of embezzlement and breach of trust while he was mayor of Paris and given a suspended prison sentence in 2011.[154] After 15 hours in police custody, Sarkozy was put under official investigation for "active corruption", "misuse of influence" and "obtained through a breach of professional secrecy" on 2 July 2014.[155] Mr Azibert and Sarkozy's lawyer, Thierry Herzog, are also now under official investigation. The two accusations carry sentences of up to 10 years in prison.[156] The developments were seen as a blow to Sarkozy's attempts to challenge for the presidency in 2017.[157][158] Nevertheless, he later stood as a candidate for the Republican party nomination,[159] but was eliminated from the contest in November 2016.[160] A trial on this case, Sarkozy's first, started on 23 November 2020.[161]

In April 2016, Arnaud Claude, former law partner of Sarkozy, was named in the Panama Papers.[166]

On 23 November 2020, the trial of Nicolas Sarkozy started who is accused of corruption and influence peddling, for an attempted bribery of a judge. The trial was postponed until November 26, following a request from one of his co-defendants for health reasons.[167]

On 1 March 2021, a court in Paris found former French President Nicolas Sarkozy guilty of corruption, trading in influence in a wiretapping and illegal data exchange case involving a number of individuals like magistrate Gilbert Azibert and Sarkozy's former lawyer Thierry Herzog. Both men were tried with him and convicted as well. Sarkozy and his two co-defendants were sentenced to three years, two of them suspended, and one in prison.[168][169] Sarkozy appealed the ruling, which suspends its application. — Sarkozy, Wikipedia

... So maybe Villepin was just the best of a rotten lot, or too dumb or too arrogant (I think typical French attitude about him today).

Of course, it's not like Villepin is running the red cross or anything since leaving public office:

Soon after his exit from daily political life, on 9 January 2008 de Villepin returned to legal practice.[24] Since then, he has travelled on business to Iran, Argentina, Venezuela and Colombia.[24] Over its first two years, the bureau had revenues of 4,65 million euros and earned profit of 2,6 million.[24] Alstom, Total and Veolia and the Bugshan family conglomerate have all been clients.[24] His main client for a time was Qatar,[25] and he has a close relationship with Al-Mayassa bint Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani and her mother Moza bint Nasser.[24] He advocated forcefully the Palestinian cause during the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict,[26] at the request of the Qataris, and protested the French legal ban on Islamic facial veils for women in 2014.[27] De Villepin counsels the Qatar Investment Authority.[28] He is president of the advisory board of Universal Credit Rating Group, a Sino-Russo-American bond credit rating agency, and international advisor to China Minsheng Bank.[24] — Wikipedia

So ... maybe just a realist idealist, that was too naive or too clever with too much ambition for his own good (notably: he did get acquitted).

However, the above scandals were so massive and messy (leading to far more "all politicians are corrupt" kind of attitude in France -- and super charging the far right, who are generally at least not "corrupt", as they have no power), that the French generally just want to forget about them all: hence Macron could just waltz in and won the presidency with an entirely new party he invented literally the year before.

Is my feeling from when I lived in France, people just didn't want to talk about it anymore (even though I was still super enthusiastic).

Written by the guy to whom it happened. He was hired to write Villepin's speeches but cannot follow the guy's thoughts, Villepin goes way too fast and changes constantly and switches from the highest concepts to the most trivial details all the time -- as transcribed in a post upthread, his elocution is that of a scatterbrain. Not stupid by far, but a poet more than a mathematician. — Olivier5

Of for sure, I definitely don't have any totally precise idea of Villepin's general political philosophy.

However, this could easily be by design (or then a sort of survivor bias in that only his kind of personality can persists in politics, doesn't get immediately taken down by the press).

For his way of packing everything together, highest principles and trivial details, sort of overwhelms interviewers and news anchors and he can make his point.

If you try to really get into the mechanics of the argument, there's all sorts of missing pieces, but the point and structure of the argument is clear; you can easily fill in the blanks ... and certainly "sounds" smart. But this might be just his personality.

The next part, for sure by design, is that he waits his moment. He certainly has had these idea of Western hypocrisy and and the affect on the world since a while--conversations with his Russian counterparts are literally decades in the past. But he waits the right political moment to speak his mind.

Lot's to debate and disagree with, but certainly not a coward in any case.

↪boethius Thanks, I appreciate that. But yes, I remember being shocked to """learn - not long ago either - that it was Russia that destroyed 80% of the wehrmacht in WWII, but in literally any narrative ever, it's the US that gets all of the credit. — StreetlightX

... And West only really invaded Europe after Russia had already turned the tide.

However, Villepin has another really good analysis that follows, that's only partly transcribed, so I've put bellow the whole thing:

"""
Villepin: And there is another factor, above that humiliation, is the sentiment of Western hypocrisy.

We ignore that factor.

For Vladimir Putin we are liars.

News anchor: But on what? [in a tone of clueless, innocent honest perplexion]

Villepin: 1999, the Kosovo, we talked of a military intervention, without authorization of the security council. [can't quite make out the word], the term we used at the time, and Vladimir Putin would hold it against us even today, in us [creating or crediting] a genocide on the part of-on the - on the [can't make it out, I assume Albanians] from the part of the Serbs.

Second step of the lie, and the occidental hypocrisy, the United States in Iraq, where they are evidently [expression I've never heard before], and how many times the Russian foreign minister at the time told us: you did nothing to judge for the monstrous War Crimes, hundreds of thousands dead, not George Bush nor Tony Blair.

Third step, Lybian crisis, where we made a deal with the Russians, since the supported the revolution 1973, and we largely exceeded the mandate.

And when they tell you that, the Russians, what do they add: we stretched out our hands to you, and it's that in 2001, 911, made a considerable gesture, vis-a-vis the United States--

New anchor: that does not permit to explain what is currently happening

Villepin: But, it doesn't expla - it doesn't justify it, but it allows to understand the software of a man who, hates humiliation and hypocrisy, adds to that, and I think we would ignore it in favour of the crisis, we would ignore - if we don't take it into consideration, we would make a colossal mistake, it's the immense feeling of injustice and the desire for revenge, Eastward, yes in the Orient, but also in the South.

And when we see, skipping some steps to save time, where at the general assembly, there are 35 states who abstain, and a few states, not so important, who voted against. But among the 35 states, there's delegations like Senegal, so we need to understand why, why these African states, why these South-American states, feel necessary to send us this message; which is: you have the habit of crushing us, which is from where comes the argument ["masu" not sure what it means; edit: likely means a "sledge hammer"] of Vladimir Putin, that not only he wants to put into question [i.e. challenge] the European order, but he wants to put into question the occidental domination. And thus-

Interviewer: [interrupts]

Villepin: And thus, I finish, as it's a point, a major point. And thus, the whole game, is to know if Russia will stay relatively alone, and the embargo against China will become more and more important, all the way to China taking distance from Russia, or if, as Vladimir Putin puts into question the European order, well then, at the same moment, the President Xi feels the need to put into question the Indo-Pacific order and the World order and then the junction, between those two revindications would happen, and there, the risk - I do not say a World War - but a world confrontation would be, verily, then, current affairs.
"""

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1505396482274304000.html

The importance of taking China into account of any analysis of what is going on is made startlingly clear. — StreetlightX

There's one part I found note worthy that wasn't transcribed.

Transcription skips Villepain explaining Russian perspective, in particular no credit for their fight against the Nazis, and instead being antagonized and ultimately humiliated by the West.

Interviewer interrupts with:

"Re-writing history, says Emanuel Macron"

Villepain:

"""
Yes, but it's not so simple as that!

You know, anyways, as a diplomat, we can't just completely deny what other's believe.

We can consider we have differnet opinons, but we are obliged to take into consideration [the others]: above all, when they're in front of us, and we're even brought to confront them.

And a last battle, which is essential, and China advances, obviously has in mind, is the battle of power! And we can all see the effort well militarily, of people here and there, and the economic one by China; thus we cannot consider it a negligible quantity.
"""

(French way of talking sounds a bit weird translated directly to English, but it's just how French people talk; such as "we're brought" to do something, is an interesting French expression which explains what you decided to do ... by presenting it as others stringing you along the whole time; and other people don't even need to be involved at all, it connotes more that the end result, or that part of the story, wasn't some sort of goal, but haphazard series of events)

It’s a well-known fact that NATO was created by America “to keep Russia out of Europe and the Germans down” as admitted by NATO's own website:

Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay was NATO’s first Secretary General, a position he was initially reluctant to accept. By the end of his tenure however, Ismay had become the biggest advocate of the organisation he had famously said earlier on in his political career, was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”

Lord Ismay - NATO — Apollodorus

Hilarious that this exists.

And worth following the link, it's not even buried in a bunch of text as just the historical record relevant for that reason, it's the lead citation summing up this guys contribution to the world.

And definitely, more fruitful, especially on a philosophy forum, to stick to facts that are easy to establish.

True, the term "World New Order" does get mentioned from time to time by our overlords, but it's not an established fact that it's anything more than something "cool" to say they made up drinking on the golf course one day.

And these are people that give themselves Star Wars nicknames:

And there he stayed for 42 years, cultivating a group of disciples who called themselves members of “St. Andrew’s Prep.” By the 2000s, Marshall, then in his 80s, had earned the affectionate nickname Yoda. — The Return of the Pentagon’s Yoda, Foreign Policy

These are just minions, but the people at the top aren't having any less fun.

... There's even a Wikipedia page of George Bush's nicknames for people.

Nickname: Flies on the Eyeballs Guy
Real name: Cofer Black
position: Director of the CIA Counterterrorist Center — List of nicknames used by George W. Bush, wikipedia

It's more Lord of the Flies than 1984, just we're all stuck on the same island.

Britain's clown-in-chief Boris Johnson even said that the Germans should "make a sacrifice in the interests of peace". Shows how easy it is to sacrifice other people's economies and boost America's and Britain's .... :smile: — Apollodorus

Although we are in total agreement here,

I agree with Baden's analysis of:

Throwing sand in the air isn't going to work here. The evils of Western imperialisn are well known. But none of what you've presented is evidence of a NATO anti-Slav plot involving Zelensky. Instead of digging in, you'd be well advised to drop that clownish line and stick with some of yoiur saner points. — Baden

I think it nevertheless worth explaining somewhat more for your and others benefit.

History is filled with conspiracies, but, although interesting to historians, most (if not all) historians will be happy to explain that those conspiracies had little affect.

For example, assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand was a successful conspiracy, and credited with triggering the events that started WWI, but at the same time most historians view the war as inevitable at that point and the trigger largely irrelevant.

Also of note, the "black hand" wasn't some great international conspiracy, but a relatively local organization of random violence, manipulated by people wanting to start the war ... so, if that didn't work they'd do something else.

Let's say the Sinking of the Lusitania was the US doing to get into WWI ... well, if that didn't work, they'd just do something else.

Likewise, if The Reichstag Fire wasn't set by the Nazi's they would have found some other excuse, lit something else on fire, or just waited for the next bad thing to happen to blame on the socialists, or then just done their plan without any event at all.

However, focusing on this historical minutia would be missing the forest for the trees. Mussolini, Franco, Hitler ... fascism was simply a popular movement and that's what brought about WWII, in conjunction with post-WWI policies that brought about the great depression.

In all these "start a war" cases, the policies are already decided by those in power and they're just looking for the pretexts: the choices are 1. just wait for a pretext (if there's all sort of random acts of violence happening anyways, then easy to just pick one), or 2. then make a pretext (conspiracy of some sort), or 3. then just do it anyways for reasons and no triggering event at all.

If a case about WMD's in Iraq couldn't be made, some other reason for invading Iraq would have been invented.

In short, definitely there have been conspiracies associated with immense political events such as starting world wars ... twice!

Conspiracies would matter a lot if option 2 was the only option available, but what people forget who focus on the events above as "the cause" of the bad things happening, is that if it wasn't option 2, it would be option 1 or 3.

There's pros and cons to each option ... and what actually matters is there's a power structure that wants to start a war or purge their political enemies, and can do it with immense support (enough to control society) even, for many, if there was no reason given at all than the other people are bad and we hate them!

What matters is the power, everything else is secondary.

The fact of WMD evidence being fabricated to start a war is totally secondary to the fact there's a small group of people that have the power to start a war in the first place and ... even if the reason is proven (by their own military institutions!) to be bogus, have the power to face no consequences about it anyways, just joke and laugh about "those WMD's gotta be somewhere".

Why the CIA folks love saying "the world is messy" and they don't have total control, is because it's true and it distracts from the structure of power and their part within it ... that maintains the disparity between the rich and the poor.

But it's not a conspiracy, it's simply everyone knowing their place: including most poor people.

Almost everything we see as "the serious politics" of the day is just smoke and mirrors, if people weren't "super concerned" with this, we'd be "super concerned" about something else. The war seems certainly "more serious" than usual, but, as has been discussed, there's been several ongoing wars no one cares about; why we care about this one is just part of the show.

People are dying, true, so easy to sell this is "big" ... but people are dying all the time in horrible ways, with far easier ways to help them than solve this mess in Ukraine. All those deaths aren't "big", but something that a lone intrepid journalists needs to go expose just to be ignored by mass media, because Ukrainian deaths today serve the power structure's already chosen policies (in the West, China and Russia), for different reasons and presented in different ways of course. As soon as the war is over and the deaths of these Ukrainians becomes inconvenient for the West, China and Russia ... we'll stop hearing about it, just as we stopped hearing about Afghanistan after literally a couple months after Afghani deaths became inconvenient rather than a call to arms to "defeat the hated enemy".

The power structure focuses our attention on the dead in Ukraine not because people have some intrinsic value, but because it distracts from all the rest, and that's pretty damn convenient right now. But if it wasn't the dead in Ukraine, it would be something else, and people would be just as emotional about it.

If you peer behind the curtain, you'll find it's just fun and games, laughing and partying between those that are in the party. What they do doesn't really matter, and between lines on a hookers ass crack things aren't thought out all that far and coherently (academia has an entire industry dedicated to re-interpreting the whims of the powerful as representing serious doctrines of some sort, but that's just part of the power structure), but it's why this party is happening in the first place and what keeps it going, that's what matters.

True, the power structure is sadistic, and so it is in fact giving it more credit to believe they exercise their sadism in secret, for they must be ashamed of it. But they aren't! They hide things only if it was more fun and adventurous that way, but if it's funner to just do it in the open to really feel how powerful they are, they have no hesitation.

Not that their stupid, they're just "normal people" as anyone who gets close to them informs us.

And, they do get serious from time to time. What's elites "getting serious" look like? After they blowup the banking system and bank cards are literally about to stop working and the party may actually end, then, for sure they get "serious". What do they do? They sit down and draft a single paper giving the banks unlimited money.

They don't, in their moment of tension and "bringing their best", finally create some giant tome of intellectual mastery, they just give themselves trillions of dollars with a single paper.

Which both explains why they don't need clever plans when they can just print money to fix the last disaster and create the next one, and why they have the power to begin with: the money.

By any measure that will always be the Ukrainians. — Benkei

This is honestly the most bizarre part of Western media "analysis" and the 6th (irrelevant) column of online partisans, that somehow the "humiliation" of Russia not winning on day 1 is not only comparable in harm, but actually more harmful, than millions of people sleeping in basements and subways for weeks, millions of refugees, cities being reduced to rubble, in addition to all the death and trauma.

People online are basically "we got'em".

That is the sad truth. — ssu

This presentation by the Swedish ex Prime Minister about his time really trying to focus and help things when he was in office, is super insightful.



There's also an interesting exchange with a Ukrainian diplomat of some sort who lays out a bunch talking points.

Swedish ex-Prime Minister answers about the idea the gas transit fees "are being weaponized" is that they're a major source of corruption ... and more or less implying maybe it would actually help if they were no longer there!

Germany could have easily recycled Nord Stream 2 massive profits and better and cleaner economic development into EU programs to help Ukraine in a less corrupt way.

EU would have been better off, Russia would have better off, and even the Ukrainians (though perhaps not their politicians) would have been better off!

Which was the craziest part of that argument, all the rage in Western media at that time ... things need to be done less economically efficiently to "help" Ukraine?

Where were all the neo-liberal "nep-classical" economists on the air waves to lecture us on the mad Pareto Gains of doing things more efficiently and just compensating Ukraine for that. If only we had access to their wisdom then! This whole war could have been avoided! By capitalism 101, I keep on hearing so many great things about.

This could all be a lie, but it looks like the end game to me. — FreeEmotion

It's just rhetoric to justify the policy. For, presumably, policies have some objective ... so if we're pumping weapons into Ukraine and sanctioning Russia then, if we're doing international relations and not Tictok, then there's some purpose to these policies.

The only logical thing to say in public is that the goal is to "end the Putin regime".

However, Putin's popularity in Russia has gone up since the war, he has China's backing and India is staying neutral about it, as with the rest of the developing world.

Of course, never say never, but currently there's no indication that the sanctions and the war effort will end the Putin regime.

Now, keep in mind this is just some random official and so they could be just virtue signalling.

However, what is clear--even if the internal evaluation is Putin's hold on power is even tighter as a result of the West "attacking" him--is that the real policy is Cold War 2.0.

That's what the "OMG, we didn't see it coming, but we actually did!" crowd don't really get.

The point of expanding NATO East was to sell arms (a lot of NATO arms can only be sold to NATO countries) and the "warning", from basically every expert, of provoking Russia with this Poilcy, rather than have mutually beneficial trade relations immensely positive, is a great thing from the point of view of this arms selling policy (war on terror was a 'not great, not terrible' place holder) and provoking Russia leads to even way more arms sales and harms the EU (the US' biggest rival).

Kill enough Russians, I suppose. How do you think Russia is going to win this war? — Olivier5

That would not be winning the war.

And maybe it should be pause for thought for you, and anyone that sympathizes with you, that you've engaged in pages and pages of analysis of a military situation, promoted Ukrainians fighting on ... and yet you do not even have in mind what a military victory for Ukraine would even look like.

As I've already explained, even if Ukraine pushed Russian forces to the Russian border, the war would still be ongoing, Ukraine would not have won, as Russia is still there, and no one even proposes that as a possibility.

However, certainly you have really no issue then of Russia employing the exact same strategy of just "killing enough Ukrainians, you suppose" as a military objective?

You don't understand what's happening if you focus too much on Zelensky. Presidents don't fight wars. Armies don't win wars. Nations win and lose wars. — Olivier5

Again: explain how the nation of Ukraine is going to win the war and take Moscow and the East?

But sure, definitely Zelensky the Ukraine "President" should have shared what NATO already told him--that NATO ain't coming and will never be coming--with the "Nation" of Ukraine, so that they, due to the President being irrelevant, could have decided--I guess by referendum--on the cost/benefit of rejecting Russia's neutrality offer before and during the war.

You really think Ukrainians wouldn't have wanted to know that ... or is it they shouldn't know because they aren't the "President" and it's the President with the executive prerogative to do wants?

Zelensky could be dead tomorrow; it won't change much on the battlefield. Don't confuse him with a dictator taking all decisions. He is very different from Putin from this point of view. — Olivier5

Ah yes, the "not a dictator" banning opposition parties and not only banning critical media but consolidating all media into one organization.

The whole nation is fighting; Zelensky is just giving them voice. — Olivier5

Honestly makes negotiation difficult if the whole nation is fighting and all Zelensky has the power to do is casually mention that.

Ukrainians have proven that the Russian army is dumb and far weaker than it looked. — Olivier5

We shall see. Russia has certainly taken losses, but so too has Ukraine. How do Americans justify their opinion of being the best considering Afghanistan? They say "we killed, like 100 Afghanis for every American that died!"

In terms of military capacity, this Russia-Ukraine conflict will be evaluated on the same metric American's evaluate their own military capacity in looking at Afghanistan. US was dumb as it didn't achieve it's objectives of "democratizing" Afghanistan (but don't worry, Afghani's are to blame for that) but not weak (what actually matters to them) because far more Taliban were killed than American soldiers. On this same standard, Russia is not dumb if it achieves it's objectives, and not weak if it has killed more Ukrainians.

You seem to be counting your graves before they've all hatched.

Cretins whining about social media. What else is new? — Olivier5

We're not whining about social media, social media is whining about Putin and all but declaring Ukrainian victory and parading in the streets.

Now, if Putin can be beaten by social media posts, that would be one thing.

However, if the war fervor (that almost no one supporting Ukraine on social media has any personal risk in) just embolden's the CIA's plan, as @StreetlightX has posted a good article about you may want to respond to if you perceive yourself as having a "debate", to pump arms into Ukraine, not for Ukraine to win, but just to bleed the Russians ... is maybe harming Ukrainians for nothing but the CIA's stated objective.

Zelensky got the information directly from NATO before the war that Ukraine will never be allowed to join, was just PR standing beside (in the sense of standing in an entirely different and safe country ... not like "actually standing beside" in fighting) Ukraine's "right" to join NATO.

Zelensky should have taken that information and ... instead of--how you say it--"whining" about that being unfair to Ukraine of being in a limbo and wanting to live in denial of needing to do any diplomacy with it's largest neighbor ... done actual diplomacy and crafted a policy that takes into account never joining NATO.

Maybe consider Blinken's publicly explaining long before the war, how Ukraine's military options aren't very good as whatever military asset is put in Ukraine, Russia will simply double or quadrupedal that. If Zelenesky is such a military genius, maybe he would have taken that obvious fact into consideration: that Ukraine has no military solution by itself in dealing with Russia and that Ukraine is never going to be joining NATO.

Maybe being officially neutral is better than being officially NATO's expendable side kick?

Well, Zelensky couldn't parse this information and seems to have concluded instead that when push comes to shove, he could simply hold Ukrainian civilians hostage and "force" NATO to do the right thing and come and save him ... instead of NATO fearing Russia, as he is realizing now.

For years and years and years, the Western media has been ridiculing Putin for wanting a seat at the "big boy table" and to be taken seriously and respected as a nuclear power. Hahahahah our pundits would say.

Seems now that was just a fact all along, NATO does indeed take Russia's nuclear weapons seriously.

Ukraine didn't want to be neutral, and now it has what it wanted--it's certainly not neutral now, it's fighting a war--but it got more than it bargained for in being neutral alone, when it thought it wouldn't be alone ... but it is alone and was told it was alone before the war.

Or, you disagree?

Or, let me guess, you disagree but you feel you need not explain why.

I hope Ukraine and Russia can work out a peace deal soon and avoid this insane bloodshed. — Benkei

I fear this boat has sailed.

I think the offer Russia made a couple of weeks at the very start of high-intensity warfare, could have been taken.

Zelensky could have then sold it to his people as due to courageous Ukrainians, Russia couldn't just take the whole country, but peace is now needed and so on. Even easier if there was behind the scenes negotiations for Ukraine to join the EU, which Russia said it had no problem with at that time.

And Putin could have sold it to his people as just what he wanted the whole time of ending the war in the Dombas, and Putin could then withdraw his troops as he said he would and I think the whole world would have been super relieved about that.

I am totally willing to believe the Kremlin had larger ambitions, but I think the losses did make them reconsider and so offer the minimum they could accept (... essentially just the de facto status quo before the war).

As hard as it is to believe, the ant-Russian rhetoric was actually pretty tame even a couple of weeks a go and normalizing political relations was potentially possible, everyone having learned war is a bad thing and we should all try a lot harder to use our mouths to avoid it.

However, at from watching his speeches and addresses, Zelensky seems to have now rationalized why the deal would have been good to take then ... but building new rationalizations of why it can't be taken now, and banning opposition political parties and consolidating the media into one organization to double down on the war (of which ... certainly there are some Ukrainians questioning whether it's worth continuing to fight for Crimea and Dombas that can't be taken back militarily and also filled with ethnic Russians that ethnic Ukrainians don't like too much anyways ... and continuing to fight for the "constitutional" right to join NATO, even though Zelensky himself has clarified NATO told him Ukraine would never join).

So, accepting Russia's demands now would make the fighting since the offer was first made basically pointless and Zelensky would be immediately just a dangerous fool that got his citizens killed for literally no reason.

Hence, Zelensky has now chosen to "pull a Brexit" and pass the responsibility on to a referendum that is basically politically impossible to organize. There is literally zero political reason to go on television and place a referendum as a condition to any peace deal, and the whole point of martial law is that it suspends the constitution ... which Zelensky doesn't hesitate to take advantage of in banning opposition parties and opposition media.

There was a few days building up the idea of a settlement in the Western media, but the new narrative is that Ukraine is "winning" ... which, as I've explained previously, you actually have to defeat your enemy to win.

Western media points to a few areas of push back by the Ukrainians, but there is zero evidence that Russia didn't simply tactically retreat to consolidate it's current position (lot's of evidence it's doing this though).

Given all this, it seems now a diplomatic end to the war is currently off the table, and my guess is that Russia will collapse and encircle the Dombas line (accomplish militarily it's stated objectives) and then just sit on the territory it's taken.

We hear good news in the West and around Kiev ... but I don't think internet people keep in mind the Eastern front is over 1000 KM away from Poland. From Lviv to Donesk, it's 1200 KM and 17 hour drive, whereas Donesk to Russia is a 1.5 hour drive.

Not only an incredible distance ... where you may need more gas along the way, but Russia can strike anywhere along the supply chain with missiles at anytime.

Which is something all the "retired" generals and CIA folk fail to mention, is that it's a massive advantage to Russia to keep Ukrainian troops as far East as possible ,if the goal is not, and never has been, to occupy all of Ukraine, but simply wreck it's military, obliterate Azov, and lay siege to Kiev until their demands are accepted.

What seems likely now is that Russia will take the whole Dombas region and then Putin will just declare victory in that his demands were modest, he's achieved them in the field and he doesn't want more of Ukraine and forces around Kiev and elsewhere will be withdrawn as soon as the military reality is accepted diplomatically.

Russia can then just sit behind it's lines and continue to pummel Ukrainian logistics with missiles. With drone spotters, normal spotters and heavy artillery, these lines will be simply impossible to assault.

Zelensky will then be in a "what now?" position: impossible to "defeat" the Russians, and impossible to fight to any better a negotiation position and impossible to get any concessions from Russia who are already sitting on their demands and Zelensky himself has already Ukraine is never joining NATO.

Of course, still better to negotiate the only political end available, before Eastern lines collapse, and sell that as best as can be done (and accept an end to your political career), but Zelensky's ego simply can't that.

Do not be worried !!

The arms are sent to "vetted" Ukrainian military units.

You may have missed that part.

Point well taken, I was not aware of that. Note that it happened after the first Russian invasion though. That a country being invaded would seek alliances is somewhat natural. — Olivier5

No one criticizes Ukraine for wanting to join NATO and seeking to join NATO.

The problem is they aren't actually in NATO ... and maybe should have negotiated actually getting into NATO before "flexing" about it.

Zelensky just made clear yesterday that the constitutional questions would need to be done through the constitutional process ... with a referendum.

So what Zelensky says as a soundbite is entirely meaningless.

Of course, NATO, been made up of sovereign nations, could have easily signed a treaty with Russia that Ukraine would not join NATO, regardless of what Ukrainian constitution said.

However, that idea was rejected by all parties, including Zelensky saying things "nothing decided about Ukraine without Ukraine", because it was important to uphold and also fight (except for NATO who wouldn't be doing any of the actual fighting) for the "right" to join NATO.

NATO was pretty clear that it stood by Ukraine's right to join NATO ... even if it couldn't actually join NATO.

"Solidarity brother, I mean sister" was I believe an exact paraphrase of the NATO position.

Zelensky also clearly stated before the invasion that he had no hopes for joining NATO. — frank

When does he say this before the invasion?

He's said, after the invasion, that he's been "cold on NATO" for a while.

And, also, I think just yesterday, said pretty clearly that he asked NATO to tell him when they could actually join, or to say no clearly, and that NATO told him that Ukraine would never be allowed to join, but the door would be left open publicly.

This is after the invasion.

Before the invasion and the first week, I only remember ever seeing a defense of Ukraine's "right" to join NATO.

Do you have a citation of Zelensky that he had no hopes of joining NATO stated before the invasion?

I need to sign off for the day, but I agree with your points. My expectation is that Russia will push to the borders of Dombas and then take a holding position, work out a deal.

Yes, by opposition I was meaning more "opposing Zelensky," and obviously censorship, but it is good to be precise in that it is not a uni-party system ... yet.