Knowledge and induction within your self-context Induction
While a method of evaluating beliefs through a deductive methodology has been proposed, there are times when a belief cannot be deduced. In these cases the only type of belief available is an inductive belief. So far, an inductive belief has been classified as merely a belief. Intuitively however, people have regarded certain inductions as more cogent than others. Understanding how beliefs can be deduced into knowledge also allows insight that not all inductive beliefs are the same.
In evaluating inductions I looked at them from the standpoint of their relations to distinctive and applicable knowledge. In looking at the interplay between distinctive and applicable knowledge, I noticed that certain inductions strayed more or less further from the knowledge process. This allowed me to definitely demonstrate why one induction is more reasonable than another. From this, I propose 4 baseline inductions: probability, possibility, plausibility, and irrational induction.
Probability
The induction considered mathematically the most cogent is probability. An example of probability is the statement, “The random chance of pulling a jack out of a normal deck of 52 playing cards is 4/52. If it is applicably known there are four jacks in a deck of 52 playing cards, the cards have been randomly shuffled, and the person who draws the card is unable to discern which card is which, deductively a 4/52 chance is the only possibility. Any prediction about the future is innately inductive, but a probability is the most rational type of prediction about the future because its justification the applicably known limits of what can occur given the situation.
Probability will also reveal how I can evaluate other inductions cogency. If applicable knowledge is a deduction that cannot be contradicted by reality, then the possible outcome when considering all of the evidence leading to that knowledge is 100%. There is only one conclusion that can be reached, no other possibilities. If I then make another claim of applicable knowledge using a prior claim of knowledge as justification, as justification, the second justification is a 1*1=100% probability of being applicable knowledge.
If I make a pure induction, its probability is less than 100% of being logically sound. The definition of an induction is that the premises do not necessarily lead to the conclusion. This means that the probability of an induction’s result being a belief that does not contradict reality is 1 out of an unknown other possibilities. To simplify this concept, imagine an induction’s probability of not being contradicted by reality is 50%, as in the shep/goat example when I could not see its face. I arrive at 50% because there are only two distinctively known possible outcomes. (Note: I am ignoring the possibility of a person forming new distinctive knowledge to simplify the example).
If more than one probable induction is combined, the likelihood of its occurrence can be reasoned out. For example, I guess that it’s a shep instead of a goat, then I guess that the shep is male. Since I distinctly only know of two possible sexes, the probability of both of them being sounds is .5*.5 or a 25% chance. Any probability of less than one multiplied by any probability of less than one will always result in an overall lower chance of being correct. The more inductions one uses as justification for new inductions, the less likely their conclusion will be a rationally concluded belief.
Possibility
From this understanding, the next cogent induction down from probability that can be defined is possibility. A possibility is a belief that something applicably known at least once, can be applicably known again without consideration of its likelihood. For example, I applicably know people can put a jack in a deck of cards, shuffle it randomly, and draw a jack on the first draw. Therefore, it is possible that when a deck of shuffled cards has a jack in it, it can be randomly drawn on the first draw again. However, I am not evaluating the probability that it will happen, only that it is possible.
A possibility is cogent because it relies on previous applicable knowledge. It is not inventing a belief about reality which has never been applicably known. Like probability, a possibility is an applicably known outcome. We applicably known there is a Jack in the deck of cards, and thus if someone randomly pulls a card, it is a possible outcome that it is a jack. A possibility is less cogent than a probability because while both rely on applicable knowledge as a justification for their inductions, a possibility does not examine all of the facts to conclude a deduced chance of its likelihood. For example, it is possible that I could win the lottery, but highly improbable. I would be more rational in my belief that I will likely not win if I buy a ticket based on probability, then ignoring probability and simply believing it is possible that I will win if I buy a ticket today.
What I cannot do while comparing inductions is state the specific likelihood that one is more possible than another. I can claim that it is unlikely that I will win the lottery, and also believe it is possible. But what I can do is base my decisions on what is most applicably known. If I examine the possibility of winning the lottery, I can realize it is incredibly unlikely that I will win in a particular place, lets say 1 out of 1 million. If however I examine another lottery elsewhere, I find the chances of winning are 1 out of 100,000. If both pay out equally, I can take the more rational probability and bet on the one that has the greater chance of winning.
Without probability, if I know it is possible to win the lottery in both states, but do not know the odds, there is no way to determine which possibility is more likely to occur. Thus if there are two possibilities, I cannot deductively conclude which one has the greater chance of occurring. If I only examine the possibility that I can win without analyzing the probability, my belief has less applicable knowledge involved, and thus I cannot know the likelihood of winning.
While I cannot compare possibilities alone and determine which one is more cogent, I can compare probabilities to possibilities and determine that probabilities are more cogent to make decisions on. Thus, a hierarchy of inductions seems to be a better way to evaluate inductions than evaluating what is more cogent within the particular hierarchy set. Still, both probability and possibility rely on the belief, “What has been applicably known once could be applicably experienced again.” This brings up the problem of induction by Hume. What reason compels us to believe that what has happened once can happen again? If one has applicable knowledge of moments in which one applicably experienced something, and moments in which one did not applicably experience that same thing, one cannot applicably know that the applicable knowledge will, or will not be experienced again. The only way to applicably know one will or will not experience what one applicably knew again, is if one either does experience, or does not experience what one applicably knows again. Thus the decision to make an induction is something outside of applicable knowledge.
Relying on Hume’s base criticism of induction is not a rational decision,, but an ingrained thing that I simply do. I in fact, must do it, just like I create discrete experiences. Making inductions is something that is necessitated by our very existence. Forming applicable knowledge takes time and careful reason, something the world does not always afford an individual before a decision must be made. With the understanding of distinctive and applicable knowledge, just like I can shape our discrete experiences into better expressions and tools for greater success, I can manage and shape my inductions as well.
Plausibility
Continuing on, this leaves the remaining two classifications of induction: plausibility, and irrational. While probability and possibilities rely on applicable knowledge, these two new inductions rely only on distinctions. A plausibility is the belief that an applicable belief will be applicably known before an application has been made. This breaks down even further into two subgroups. There are applicable and inapplicable plausibilities. An applicable plausibility is a plausibility which has not been applicably tested, but can be. An inapplicable plausibility is a belief which is unable to be applicably tested.
Imagine I open a brand new deck of 52 cards and have looked at them. I know that its a 4/52 probability that the first card I draw will be a jack. I know that its possible for the first card drawn to be a jack. However, my mind whirls and I think to myself, “What if its possible that all the cards are actually magical cards that grant me a wish when I pull one?” I've never experienced this before in opening a new deck of cards, so using the word “possible” is incorrect. I don’t applicably know if its actually possible that all the cards could grant wishes. The correct term is “plausible" when I have formed a new distinctive idea that has not yet been tested in application.
Without the understanding that knowledge has the two subdivisions of distinctive and applicable, the distinction of plausible can be difficult to identify. However, there is a clear difference between the possible, and the plausible. What is possible must have been applicably known at least one time. What is plausible is a distinctively known concept that has yet to be applicably tested.
An applicable plausibility is previously unapplied distinctive knowledge that can be applied. In this case, an easy way to test the idea that all cards are magical wish granting cards, is to pull the cards and see if my wish is granted. If at least one of the cards does not, then my plausible belief is now applicably known as incorrect. An inapplicable plausibility would be when I had no means of applicably testing My claim. For example, I are unable to, or refuse to open up the deck of cards and pull one.
Another example of an inapplicable plausibility is Descartes’ “Evil Demon,” argument. In his meditations, Descartes stated that perhaps his entire view of reality was flawed because an Evil Demon tricked him into believing a false reality. There must be essential properties of this Evil Demon that I could apply. As the Evil Demon cannot be sensed in any way, there is no criteria of application. The plausibility is inapplicable.
What is common to both plausibilities is that they are distinctive ideas without application. In the hierarchy, plausibilities are less cogent than possibilities. The simple reason is that possibilities and possibilities are based on something which has been applicably known. A plausibility has not yet reached this level. It is more cogent to base my reason on what has been confirmed to exist in reality, then what has not. Myths and conspiracy theories are good examples.
Irrational
Finally, an irrational belief is a belief that distinctive knowledge which is applicably known to be contradictory to reality, still may somehow be real. An example would be a person watches a deck of 52 cards being shuffled, a jack is randomly pulled, and it actually grants a wish. There are no tricks, and this is applicably confirmed. Despite the applicable knowledge that a jack was randomly pulled, the person irrationally insists on believing it is impossible for card to grant wishes.
Justification for irrational beliefs cannot rely on applicable knowledge, irrational beliefs are a contradiction to applicable knowledge. Irrational beliefs are either justified by reliance on other inductions, or simply have no justification at all beyond one’s personal desire. This does not mean irrational inductions cannot be eventually found to be an applicable outcome. Perhaps in the future new experiences demonstrate that the card wasn’t actually magical, despite the idea that it granted wishes being the only deduced outcome that could be ascertained at the time. Irrational inductions are at the bottom of the hierarchy of inductions, as they go against rationality itself.
Hierarchy of Inductions Summary
Induction examined from the applicable knowledge of deductive justification provides a rational way to evaluate competing inductive beliefs. This is important, for while one cannot rationally argue which possibility is more rational to believe in, one can argue a probability makes the claim of a possibility irrelevant. Thus I can now take different inductions and determine which is most rational to make decisions on.
To summarize:
In an applicably known deck of 52 playing cards with four jacks,
It is a 4/52 probability that a jack will be drawn the first pull.
It is possible that a jack will be drawn.
It is plausible that drawn card will grant me a wish.
It is irrational that if I draw an applicably known Jack, I believe it is not a Jack.
Here I can see how each progressive induction is lower in the hierarchy. To be clear, when comparing inductions within the same hierarchy (besides probability), there isn’t an easy way to determine which induction is more cogent. It is possible that a jack could be drawn, but also possible that a jack could not be drawn. Looking at possibilities alone cannot tell us which is more rational to believe in for the first card draw. It is equally plausible that the drawn card could grant myself a wish, but also plausible that it sings a tune for me. It is equally irrational to believe the Jack I draw is not a Jack, and that despite my drawing the card, I did not actually draw it.
At this point, this theory of knowledge has been distinctively known and applied within a single individual’s context. This does not yet address knowledge between more than one individual, but I will definitely post the continuation if this gets enough traction and discussion. Thank you for reading all the way! Feel free to post questions and criticisms at this point. I honestly have so much more to say, but I understand the length is already quite long for these forums. I will be reserving the next post for optional reading focused on questions and comments that are repeated below.