I feel stupid.
As I was working on a response to your last post, there were some things I was puzzled about and obviously you've been puzzled by some of what I was writing recently. I started to worry that we were losing the thread of the argument. So I decided to go back through everything and I realized there was something about your position that I had fundamentally misunderstood.
A long time ago, you admitted that the argument from design is not deductive but inductive. I had been assuming that the issue, since then, was how to make that induction work, and I've gotten caught up in the details of that. I now realize that, as far as you were concerned, the inductive argument was actually complete at that moment, as soon as you agreed that it was an inductive argument. From your point of view, the conclusion of the argument, that order is always attributable to conscious agency, was established a long time ago. That the universe, being ordered, must be the work of a conscious agency, is just an application.
There are two peculiarities about this. One I should have understood, because it's pretty fundamental to the way the argument from design works. The other is interesting.
At first, a lot of us reached for examples from nature of things that are ordered, apparently without any conscious agency taking a hand--crystals, normal distributions, complexity, etc. None of this was relevant, as it turns out, because of the way the argument works.
It's an induction. You throw every ordered thing you can find into a box, then take them out one-by-one and check to see if they are the result of conscious agency. There's trillions upon trillions of human artifacts in the box--the usual watches, tidy rooms, and 747s--and then there's the universe. The whole universe. A single object that is ordered, like one of the billions of watches in the box. Although a typical scientist might see what humans have done as an unimaginably small dataset compared to all she could conceivably learn from looking at the vastly hugely mind-blowingly big universe, here the tables are turned: the entire universe is just one more ordered thing, just another wristwatch. Of course, that's how the argument from design works, and I feel stupid for having forgotten that.
But here's where it gets interesting. Say you have a hypothesis that all ravens are black. You put every raven you can find into a box, then take them out one-by-one and check to see if they're black. Suppose among all those ravens--black, black, black, black--there's one that somehow is indeterminate in color. From one direction it looks blackish, from another kinda grey, from another nearly brown. You could stop, and decide that the induction fails because here's a raven that is not definitely black. Who knows how many more of these there are? Doesn't matter anyway, one's enough to scuttle the project. Or you could decide, weird raven, let's set it aside for now and check the rest. You go through the whole box, find nothing but black, and conclude that the induction is still pretty strong. Now what about that indeterminate-color raven? Having finished your work, can you now say, my inductive argument shows it
must be black? Er, no. It's still indeterminate in color, despite the strength of the induction. It's not even probably black.
Now suppose that the one indeterminate-color raven is, for some reason, kept, unexamined, in a separate box, and you go through the entire box of black ones first. Then you can conclude, without even opening the box containing the last one, that so long as there's a raven in there, the inductive argument shows that it's black.
So that's exactly what happened here. Every possible instance of order in nature was lumped together as one single data point, the universe, and then that data-point isn't even examined. It's held back until we've gone through all the watches and tidy rooms and 747s, the conclusion is established, and then we apply our inference to the universe--it's ordered, must have been ordered by someone.
Well, that's cheating. It's not supposed to matter what
order you examine your data points in. If you reach an instance of order that isn't clearly the work of a person--maybe it's the first one you pulled out of the box, maybe it's the 587th--you're done. Even if you decide this is just an outlier and set it aside, once you're done you don't get to go back and say the induction showed that the universe must be the work of a person. It's still an outlier, induction or no induction.
The argument cheats. It compresses almost all of the data available into a speck, and then it even hides that speck to make sure we don't look at it and wonder why it's not obviously like everything else.
Side notes:
(1) "Science is just as bad." I had forgotten that this was your real point. Well, no. After the raven study, a scientist will report that very nearly every raven is black, but there's at least one outlier, and conclude that we'll just have to learn more about the process of raven pigmentation.
(2) "It still makes it
likely that the universe, being ordered, is the work of a conscious agency." True enough, if you treat every doodled smiley face as a datapoint equal to the entirety of universe, oh yeah the odds are going to be on your side. If, instead, you actually look at nature instance by instance, you'll find overwhelming evidence of self-organization at every level can you think of, all of it happening without any sign of a conscious agent behind it all.
(3) "It's no less likely that the universe is the work of a conscious agency." Could be, but I'd spend a lot of time in point number 2 before reaching a conclusion.