What would be the point? If I give you my answer now, and you accept it as you read it, what grounds do you have for thinking it will still hold in a week, or tomorrow, or even five seconds after your read it?
:cool:
I am aware of a few ways of attacking the problem:
1. Techniques in statistics and probability theory do not rely on induction. We have proofs for why Weibull regressions, multinomial logits, OLS, etc. work. We can use these techniques in the context of
Bayesian Inference, while hewing to the
principal of maximum entropy. This will never allow us to be absolutely certain of any inferences, but it does allow us to have high confidence in them. There are also combinatoric arguments along this line, see:
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/induction-problem/#BayeSolu .
2. You can attack Hume's premises. The uniformity principle (UP) that Hume invokes for his attack on induction doesn't seem to hold up. This doesn't necessarily resolve the problem, but it changes it.
Maybe inductive inferences do not even have a rule in common. What if every inductive inference is essentially unique? This can be seen as rejecting Hume’s premise P5.
P5: Any probable argument for UP presupposes UP.
Proponents of such views have attacked Hume’s claim that there is a UP on which all inductive inferences are based. There have long been complaints about the vagueness of the Uniformity Principle (Salmon 1953). The future only resembles the past in some respects, but not others. Suppose that on all my birthdays so far, I have been under 40 years old. This does not give me a reason to expect that I will be under 40 years old on my next birthday. There seems then to be a major lacuna in Hume’s account. He might have explained or described how we draw an inductive inference, on the assumption that it is one we can draw. But he leaves untouched the question of how we distinguish between cases where we extrapolate a regularity legitimately, regarding it as a law, and cases where we do not.
One way to put this point is to say that Hume’s argument rests on a quantifier shift fallacy (Sober 1988; Okasha 2005a). Hume says that there exists a general presupposition for all inductive inferences, whereas he should have said that for each inductive inference, there is some presupposition. Different inductive inferences then rest on different empirical presuppositions, and the problem of circularity is evaded.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/induction-problem/#NoRule
3. You can show that Hume's argument is self-undermining.
First, you can attack Hume's Fork, the distinction between relations of idea (logical truths) and matters of fact, see:
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/analytic-synthetic/#ProDis . There appear to be significant problems with the formulation. For example, it was considered an a priori fact that a triangle's angles add up to 180 degrees. This turned out to not be true under all consistent geometries, e.g., a triangle on a curved plane, as drawn on a ball. That is, there is no way to tell between an a priori analytic truth and a firmly held dogma. To be sure, some truths true by virtue of being simple tautologies, but then these do no lifting in any analysis, and in any event, many of these can be shown to be true only as regards arbitrary axioms.
If relations of ideas are actually matters of fact, and inductive inference preformed on such facts is invalid, than Hume's position reduces to the radical skepticism of the Academics. We end up with "knowledge is impossible." Why should we even trust our memories? Just because your memory has seemed to be accurate in the past is no assurance that it will be in the future. But the statement that "knowledge is impossible" pretends at being a knowledge statement; it's the equivalent of the man who says "I only tell lies," a contradiction.
If anyone said that information about the past could not convince him that something would happen in the future, I should not understand him. One might ask him: what do you expect to be told, then? What sort of information do you call a ground for such a belief? … If these are not grounds, then what are grounds?—If you say these are not grounds, then you must surely be able to state what must be the case for us to have the right to say that there are grounds for our assumption….
-Wittgenstein
Hume's argument is can also be attacked by looking at the "Paradox of Analysis" and the "Scandal of Deduction." If deduction gives us no new information, then we can learn nothing that we did not already know from it. This also implies that Hume's argument denies the possibility of knowledge, as we cannot learn what we don't already know if only deduction is valid.
Either of these routes then leaves Hume open to all the arguments against radical skepticism, my favorite being from Augustine's "Against the Academics," because they're witty.
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The above gives me reasons to think the past will be like the future, while also undermining the credibility of Hume's attempt to undercut this claim. Additionally, if I buy into computationalist conceptions of physics, then what comes before dictates what comes after by the same sort of logical entailment Liebniz had in mind when he developed his conception of computation, then my expectation that the future is like the past is not grounded in Hume's UP. Or if I buy into Hegel's arguments from phenomenology and speculative logic, then I see the progression of events, at least in the big pictures, as part of a process of dialectical-logical unfolding, which is also not grounded in the UP. The same is probably true for other views of nature that don't jump to the top of my mind right now; they reject Hume's premises.
BTW, I also think Hume's idea of causation is nonsense and that it contributed to his error here, and I say that as someone who largely appreciates his work, especially his work on this very interesting topic.
When we say X causes Y we don't mean that X occurs before Y in all instances of Y (constant conjuction). We generally mean to imply some sort of step-wise chain of entailments between Y's becoming a state of affairs and X then becoming a state of affairs, not merely conjunction. (As an aside, Hume's conception of cause as being reducible to constant conjunction arguably collapses in the face of (mostly) reversible laws of physics.)
Combined with his view on induction, Hume's whole argument against causation ends up turning into what is possibly just a very convoluted form of begging the question.
Hume says we cannot sense that cause is a form of step-wise entailment. Why not? Because our senses can't tell us anything about the logical laws that may or may not be underpinning events. Why not? Because seeing events follow from one another is somehow not seeing
howevents follow from one another. But this is true only if you don't accept that events follow from one another in the first place. This problem is obscured by the fact that Hume argued for undecidability rather than the denial of a world that progresses logically.
If the world is logical, then my throwing a rock at a window and seeing it break
is my observing causation/entailment in the exact same way that my tallying 3+4 to equal 7 is my observing that the two sum together to 7 when the inputs 3 and 4 are given for the addition function.
Following the Wittgenstein quote above, it's worth asking what Hume
would count as observation of causation/entailment? If we discovered a physical theory of everything, and all observations followed its predictions, and further if we could use mathematical induction to prove that this relation holds in n+1 cases, would Hume still deny we have grounds for explaining causation? It seems possible given his arguments, but then this is essentially just radical skepticism that has been dressed up.
Example: we know how video games work. They use logical computation to produce their outputs based on given inputs. Everytime Mario jumps on a Goomba, it falls off the screen. But if we're Hume, we have to think that the console running Mario only appears to instantiate computation, and that our observing the step-wise enumeration of mathematical entailments is actually not sure to "really" be the step-wise enumeration of mathematical entailments in the world, it just "appears" to be identical. This is Descartes' evil demon territory, because it implies that while 2 + 2 = 4, adding two apples to two apples might result in 5 apples at some time in the future; we can't be sure because we can never determine if mathematics is instantiated when it appears to be.
The argument reduces to "cause cannot be logical connection because you cannot sense such a thing, and you cannot sense such a thing because you could only sense such a thing if cause is logical connection." However, if cause IS logical connection, then seeing X after performing Y every time would be your sensing the logical connection.
At best Humeans can say "if cause is step-wise entailment then the world would look exactly like it does, and you can indeed observe cause, but it's possible to imagine that our world is observably indistinguishable from such a world but somehow different." This is just positing a potential bare illogical nature of reality though, radical skepticism.