The US Economy and Inflation And an option of self-imposed compliance by companies as a result of sanctions but they're doing it in such a way that makes doing business more expensive and only too happy to force the costs of those choices on consumers.
I think you cannot really tell what will happen. I suspect a recession but it could well be japanification is the economy. I don't believe, like some writers, that people are on a spending spree after covid lock downs. That reduction in spending was the result of people losing jobs. Since most companies were propped up with subsidies, the extra spending is the result of people getting jobs again, moving to pre-covid levels but most companies more or less maintained operational capacity. If this was the only driver, we should've seen deflation during covid but we didn't.
Second area, we've seen shortages in components and raw materials due to covid disruptions since 2020 causing inflationary pressures during the pandemic. You would expect, especially if people would be spending more coming out of covid, that production capacity would increase. Instead we've seen three quarters of reduced shipping in consumer electronics. Why?
Only reason I can think of is that supplier sentiment is the market is overheated and we're bound to have a recession, (see for instance onetrust laying of 10% after a record q4 in 2021, Tesla layoffs etc.).
QE is definitely a contributor, we've had years of asset inflation already (real estate, cryptos, shares, bond yields dropping) fueled by cheap credit and at the first sign of serious interest hikes, everybody is falling over each other to rebalance their portfolio. To where is a mystery to me, I've not been involved in markets closely anymore for over two years.
Wars never helped.
So, all of the above and then some?