The fact you haven't conceded it just shows how little you've actually looked into it. Not something to be proud of. And no, I don't need to make a lot of assumptions. Here's some facts.
Supercritical geothermal (SCGT) introduces several risks that are either absent or significantly less pronounced in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). There's:
1. Thermally induced seismicity and fault reactivation. The thermal gradients for EGS are far lower compared to SCGT.
2. Material challenges. SCGT requires drilling and equipment that has to withstand much higher temperatures and pressures. supercritical water is highly corrosive.
3. Risk of encountering magma or volcanic gases is much higher as well.
4. SCGT is very likely to reach depth where rock becomes ductile, making reservoir creation even more challenging.
5. The heat and pressure can lead to rapid changes in rock properties and permeability which creates risk of wellbore collapse, equipment failure and difficulties with reservoir management.
Each risk has to be managed and therefore increases costs and therefore USD per Mwh will increase. Many of these risks will cause production to stop if they materialise which has huge ramifications for access to energy.
Furthermore, EGS technology is designed to be deployed in a wide range of geological settings, not just areas with naturally occurring high-temperature hydrothermal systems. It works by artificially creating reservoirs in hot dry rock, which is abundant in many regions worldwide.
This makes EGS more geographically flexible and potentially scalable across many countries and regions, provided there is sufficient subsurface heat at accessible depths.
SCGT, on the other hand, requires access to much deeper and hotter subsurface resources, specifically targeting the supercritical water regime.
Such conditions are only found in certain volcanic or tectonically active regions, which are geographically limited compared to the broader applicability of EGS.
There are also several known benefits to decentralised energy production as compared to centralised, making EGS preferable as well.
- By relying on multiple, local sources, communities become less vulnerable to fuel supply disruptions, price spikes or geopolitical tensions.
- Power is generated closer to where it is used, reducing the energy lost during long-distance transmission, which is typically up to 8% in centralized systems.
- Decentralized systems make it easier and quicker to integrate.
- Local ownership and management of energy resources create jobs, stimulate local economies and give communities greater control over their energy supply.
- By reducing transmission and distribution costs and enabling local energy trading, decentralized models can lower energy bills, especially in remote regions.
- Microgrids and distributed systems can operate independently during grid outages, providing critical services with reliable power.
In summary, decentralized energy production improves reliability, resilience and sustainability.
SCGT has its place, if it becomes viable. For now it's in the pilot phase but in any case it will never work as the primary source of energy production due to the risks and limitations involved.