I know, I'm just making the simplest inference. Gives me a result not too far off.

@frank

Can't find the article. There's this too: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

Mentions Ibuprofen. But I'm finding conflicting advice online tbh.

I'll check it when I dig up the article.

In the absence of further info on how their calculation was done, I make it 244. Remember, it's every 5 days, not every day.

Day 1: 1 case + rate of spread = x 2.5 in 5 days.
So,
Day 5: 1 x 2.5 = 2.5
Day 10: 2.5 x 2.5= 6.25
Day 15: 6.25 x 2.5 = 15.6
Day 20: 15.6 x 2.5 = 39
Day 25: 39 x 2.5 = 97.6
Day 30: 97.6 x 2.5 = 244

I don't have the article to hand right now, but I think Ibuprofen was one. I don't recall prednisone being mentioned.

Yes, one thing I learned today was that the latest two severe cases (requiring intensive care) in a local hospital were two young people in their twenties with no underlying conditions. They had both taken anti-inflammatories though at the onset of symptoms.

There were multiple issues with testing, including bureaucratic and others. Doctors want to test, but they need stuff that works, that's reliable, and they're sure they're using properly otherwise they'll understandably resist it. They also need the full support of government, which, at least initially, they didn't get.

E.g.

"Jeff Duchin, the public health chief in King County, Wash., where 37 deaths have been reported, suggested the lack of tests was critical, in addition to the fact that authorities had limited who could be tested. Initially, they had said tests would only be used for those who had traveled in affected regions of the globe or had otherwise been in contact with an infected person.

“So, you know, if we had the ability to test earlier, I’m sure we would have identified patients earlier in the community, possibly at hospitals, but we were also looking at not only availability of testing but whether patients met criteria for testing,” Duchin said.” So, given the fact that we just recently acquired our availability of testing and new criteria were published, this person was brought to our attention.”

...

"Thomas Frieden, an infectious disease physician who served as CDC director under former president Barack Obama, called on Sunday for an “independent group” to investigate what went wrong with the CDC’s testing process. He said in the past, the CDC moved quickly to produce tests for diseases such as H1N1, or swine flu.

“We were able to get test kits out fast,” Frieden said on CNN. “Something went wrong here. We have to find out why so we can prevent that in the future.”

Frieden said the agency has been muzzled under President Trump..."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/cdc-who-coronavirus-tests/

Time to catch up.

And yes, test like a mf, test, test, test. Probably the main failing in the US so far.

On social distancing, I've spoken personally to several South Koreans in their homes during the crisis. They've been voluntarily isolating even without symptoms. I'm all for that if it can be done. Again, copy what works.

On quarantine:

"Quarantine violators face up to 3 million won ($2500) fines. If a recent bill becomes law, the fine will go up to 10 million won and as much as a year in jail."

While that may fly with you and I, the liberty crowd aren't going to like it much and it's probably not going to be practical to enforce it in America in general. I like your authoritarian impulses though. Triggers the Stalinist in me. :p

Anyway, the article is ambiguous on the South Korean approach:

"Yet whether the success will hold is unclear. New case numbers are declining largely because the herculean effort to investigate a massive cluster of more than 5000 cases—60% of the nation’s total—linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a secretive, messianic megachurch, is winding down. But because of that effort, “We have not looked hard in other parts of Korea,” says Oh Myoung-Don, an infectious disease specialist at Seoul National University...

New clusters are now appearing."

But good contribution. Keep it up.

It's all about the curve. Voluntary and enforced social distancing worked in China and now, looking at today's figures, seems to be working in Italy. Pretty simple folks, shut up and copy what works.

The latter.

Banned @xyzmix for low quality/conspiracy theorizing.

Visual learning:

Maybe @NOS4A2 is only 99% in line with the Trump admin. See how reasonable I am...

Your prerogative. At least we agree on this:

Nos, our resident bullshit-spreader — frank

You always get butthurt instead of engaging. *Shrug*.

people are spreading stupid conspiracy theories and pretending the threat doesn't exist. — jamalrob

It starts with that. Then when things get worse moves on to just downplaying the threat until that stops being plausible too, and eventually these people just shut up because no-one's listening anymore.

:lol:

Again: there's no name. — frank

The names of government spokespeople are very often not given. They're just called "spokesman/woman". And they either exist, in which case they are authorised to speak for the relevant minister, and can be considered to be doing so, or they don't. So, unless the spokesperson doesn't actually exist (no evidence for that), Michael was using his source in a perfectly valid way. At least, I don't see the objection except that the case is not open and shut.

In China, they used sticks.

Take Michael's quote up with Michael. My point stands. You function here as a government spokesman/Trump spin provider. Nothing more. You're not in a position to talk about unbiased judgements.

What's ironic about this is that while calling for others not to trust "one side" of the story, you immediately describe it as "fake news". As far as I'm concerned, it's very plausible, but I wouldn't fully commit myself one way or the other.

"Contacted by Reuters, a spokeswoman for the German Health Ministry said: "We confirm the report in the Welt am Sonntag."

The German health ministry are obviously a more trustworthy source than some random corporation, I would say. And, of course, NOS our local Whitehouse spokestroll, would say that.

Uh, didn't notice at first. But yeah, FAKE NEWS™!

(By the way, walking pneumonia is classed among the "mild symptoms" people keep going on about. Permanent lung damage is just a bonus.)

Nothing to worry about. Relax. Have a beer.

Now my country is going to a lock down until 13th of April. Schools closed, every over 70-year old person will be quarantined. Meetings of over 10 person will be forbidden. State of emergency and emergency laws are introduced tomorrow. Government will spend 5 billion euros to help the economy (GDP 290 bn euros). — ssu

:clap: This needs to happen everywhere and now, not when the damage is already done.

Um, no, letting morons crowd into pubs and football matches (which they will because some people are incapable of understanding math and science) will result in far more deaths and hospitalizations than a strict response. Your medical system would collapse and people suffering other conditions wouldn't be able to get the help they need either. Plus, fuckwitts walking around like nothing is wrong may not suffer very serious effects but they will become vectors spreading to others, one of twenty of whom will die, and the rest will become more vectors etc. If minimizing deaths is the goal (which presumably we share), then not only are we not doing too much, we're not doing enough.

Dead people aren't infectious.

My strategy is not to get covid. Good luck with your made up words.

Loving it.

Did you know the reason a lot of leftists have long hair is to cover up the little horns growing from the sides of their skull? Or maybe I'm just speaking for myself as I break out the popcorn and watch in hopeful glee as the covid death toll mounts.

I hope I'm wrong, I have relatives there, but I expect Trumpmerica is more likely to walk itself blindly into a disaster than do what's necessary, which is a total and extreme shutdown.

OK, stupidly I'm just presuming Alex Jones's anti-coronavirus toothpaste doesn't really work and the spread in the U.S. will be similar to other countries who failed to take the virus seriously enough when they had time.

See where this is going?

@Hanover



You're at about Feb 15th Italian time.

You're at least a month behind peak. Italy's infection total was doubling daily for a while (not sure of today's figures). Anyway, take 1 and double it thirty times (sorry, I mean get someone who knows math to do it for you) and all the toilet paper in the world won't save you.

*Cross posted.

:eyes: :party: