This seems to speak volumes about your ideology. Saving Trump's face is worth more than human lives?

Yes, this is what I was pointing out too. NOS will even dance on the graves of these lives rather than save his credibility on the forum, to save face.

But the faces are becoming more and more contorted, sooner or later they will disappear in a puff of smoke.

So we'll withdraw funding during a pandemic, which will surely lead to many more deaths in vulnerable populations? (such a stable genius).

Admit that this is Trump trying to pass blame to anyone he can, rather than take responsibility for his actions.

It can only be a vanity project, by an egomaniac, anyone else would realise that everyone objective will see through it. This is his death nail, he can only be grasping at any semblance at credibility as he falls from grace, to reduce the fallout.

Those hard Brexiters in government must be sh****g themselves, now they are having to deal with something serious, just when they were revelling in getting Brexit done. It's all a world of sh*t now and they are going to have to pull us through.

@Punshhh
At this stage of the pandemic, it is not a simple choice between lives and livelihoods. There is the chaos resulting from what would happen with out lockdown measures. It would not only be a medical crisis and an economic one, but a food and disobedience crisis as well. This was already pointed out at the beginning of the thread, but ought to be considered here.

@NOS4A2

That’s a good point. The line-ups outside the barbershop alone will cause chaos.

Good to see that you are prepared to debate the crisis with the seriousness it deserves. Just like Trump who showered himself with glory lastnight, by withholding funds to the WHO the only international authority trying to help countries around the world save lives. But vanity comes before lives of course.

As countries open up I suspect the lives vs. livelihoods approach will loosen—governments cannot task itself with saving lives forever—and a better balance will be sought.

At this stage of the pandemic, it is not a simple choice between lives and livelihoods. There is the chaos resulting from what would happen without lockdown measures. It would not only be a medical crisis and an economic one, but a food and civil disobedience crisis as well. This was already pointed out at the beginning of the thread, but ought to be considered here.

I don’t agree. The world can act together. The quicker the developed countries get sorted out the sooner they can ship supplies and equipment to help out.

I hope you're right, although even if it does go the way you lay out. It will be to late. The help is needed now and the West is nowhere near coming out the other side of the first peak yet. The help wouldn't start to be sent out for a few months at the earliest and there are to many countries crying out for help now. Just imagine if that Ebola outbreak had been in multiple countries at the same time, it would have been a struggle to get it under control even with our own countries not infected.

There are already news reports appearing about violence and riots around food distribution in undeveloped countries. Countries where many millions of people are at risk of starvation imminently.

Going back to your thoughts, I have sympathy with your sentiment, but as I said before I don't think the developed countries would come to the assistance of these undeveloped countries now due to their own existential crises, even if they had somehow averted the worst effects of the lockdowns and managed to maintain some semblance of normality in their economies. The international community responded in a remarkable way to the last Ebola outbreak. But this was only possible in a normal world, disrupt that and such a response is quickly lost. This crisis is global and catastrophic to our way of life globally, we are struggling to offer assistance to ourselves, let alone anyone else.

Trump showered himself in glory lastnight.

Max Richter, The Consolations of Philosophy

Nice track.

I just wanted to say that I offer you my philosophical and moral support for the work you are doing in this time of existential uncertainty. I think many are thinking of the difficulties being faced now by health workers and how they are now in the front line of a struggle for our world, our way of life. A life which many of us were questioning, before this happened, but which I expect they would take back in a heartbeat, in the newly dawning knowledge of our vulnerabilities. But to then do things differently.

Is this our wake up call?

Drinking at work, working at home, what's the difference?

I think the point is he's working from home.

Doing a collection now for @Hanover's paper bag. Might help his love life. Please give generously.

A bottle of bourbon would be a good start.

A copy of How to win friends and influence people, might be useful.

Hang on in there, the economy should bounce back once the virus is under control.

"Although I suspect that Johnson has had a Damascene conversion following his own infection."
— Punshhh

Any reason for your uncharacteristic optimism?

If you listen to Johnson's speeches after he returned from hospital he sounds different, there could be a decent fellow inside, which has come to the surface while he stared death in the face. He accepts that his life was in the hands of some immigrant nurses and he has seen the good work the NHS does from the inside. I might be wrong, let's see what he does when he returns to the fray. He really should kick out Raab and Patel, who are actively hostile to the NHS ( and a lot else besides). If he goes back to business as usual, he really will cement his reputation for being a hypocrite.

I didn't see the figures you're referencing, but the figure of the number of people infected is not accurate because it is a function of the number of tests being carried out and the policy is that if you have symptoms to stay at home and only contact the health service if you begin to have difficulty breathing while at rest. The assumption is that there are large numbers infected, with no attempt to test them.

That's odd. If they aren't reporting nursing facility COVID-19 deaths, then why is the UK's death total so high? There was this.

Did the UK just decide not to ramp up to meet the demand? That would explain the death total, but, I mean, that would be crazy.

They are only reporting deaths in hospital of patients tested positive for Covid19. There are more accurate figures published by the ONS every two weeks, we will get the updated figures tomorrow. It is generally accepted that the actual death rate is about twice the reported figure.

The UK has ramped up for the surge, they have around 6,000 extra beds available in temporary hospitals set up in exhibition halls. Although they are way short of ventilators.

Also If you've been reading my posts and Unenlightened's comments, you would know that in the UK, there is an unspoken policy of letting Covid19 run through the care homes unhindered, relieving the government of a social care crisis in the future. It's all part of their herd immunity policy.

Although I suspect that Johnson has had a Damascene conversion following his own infection.

Yes, Channel 4 News is breaking the story. The chief medical officer said that as of today 13.5% of care homes in England have a confirmed case. In Scotland it's 33%. The England figures are likely an underestimate due to lack of testing.

None of them are in any way equipped to deal with it and hospitals aren't accepting the patients.

Or else what?

I might start saying that the US states should all become independent, or that the US, Canada and Mexico should form a Union making them the largest trading block.

Views coloured by my political views.

I don’t think the union will survive this. I suspect some more exits.

t really goes to show that when some institutions are actually put to the test they reveal how effete and powerless they really are. It makes you wonder why people put so much faith in them.

It's probably best if you don't stray into areas you don't understand.

I don't see the thread as derailed, it is rather a commentary on the progress of the pandemic as it happens. Welcome to the thread.

It was following an occupation by the Angles in the 5th century, who invaded the parts of East Anglia. In their new land they decided to divide it into two areas, north folk and south folk. Even now, they are noticeably different.

One could say the virus has been overestimated, but such considerations are relative to the mood of the population, how much preserving life, or economic circumstances are valued by the population.

In our decadent Western countries as much as 10% of the population are in "vulnerable groups", the size of this group is larger in such places due to the success of modern medicine. In poorer parts of the world perhaps half or more of such a group would have died already, so the virus wouldn't have so much of an effect on their population.

In terms of an overreaction, I can only see this being the case from the perspective of the economy, as otherwise people are simply being asked to spend some time at home, not a bad thing. And in terms of public health it is a beneficial response. Surely economically, provided economies can be put into hibernation, on life support, temporarily, what harm is done? Economists keep saying it will bounce back afterwards.

Perhaps the vulnerability of our economies is a consequence of narrow minded human behaviour in large populations resulting in an economic house of cards( it certainly feels like this in the UK at the moment) which will collapse at the merest hint of a down turn and that exposing this weakness will be a good thing. Resulting in more robust systems developing. Although historically this sort of progress does not often happen in humanity.

I think the overestimated response was due to political expediency more than anything else, that in our decadent countries such loss of life, in an undignified way, is not to be tolerated.

That was in Ecuador

Thanks for correcting me, I'll correct it.

Oh going back to the north folk and the south folk, it was to do with who lived to the north or south of the river Waveney.

Not me, not ever. Human touch is necessary for life :sparkle:

We should spare a thought or a prayer for the millions of unfortunate souls who will suffer at this unfortunate time.

It is a poignant thought that this weekend commemorates the crucifixion and the resurrection. In a cruel twist of fate nature is acting out this metaphor amongst Christian societies around the world now with the wave hitting many poorly prepared countries this weekend.

Note: I’m still curious to see the figures for deaths in the UK these past two weeks (will be released on April 14).

The death rates of confirmed cases in hospital are published every day. Today (actually the 24hrs up to 5pm yesterday) are 980. The actual figure can only be estimated because all the death certificates won't be tallied until later, also many deaths will be put down to some other cause. But a rule of thumb is probably about double the hospital death rate. The total hospital death rate for the UK is approx 9,000 as of yesterday.

The daily death rate is still going up, but is beginning to level out. I doubt it is going to flatten because the lockdown is quite porous with many people still going to work and interacting on public transport etc. Also there are spikes happening currently in a few places in other parts of the country.

It will be interesting what policy changes there will be if the daily rate goes over a thousand, or fifteen hundred.


Going back to the less developed countries, I saw a scary report on UK Channel 4 tonight from Ecuador it has hit them big time with hospitals and morgues piled high with bodies. I expect to hear sporadic reports like this from many countries over the next few weeks.

Yes I was expecting a bounce back in Wuhan and they've only been out of lockdown for one day.

Yes Norfolk England, the back of beyond.

When I said what price a life, I was thinking of the monetary calculation, rather than how much people value other people's lives.

If we knew then what we know now, I dont think we would have. Some places needed it and some didn't. We took the most conservative approach in the face of the unknown.

We can't know this, firstly because we don't have a developed country which didn't have a lockdown and secondly the less developed countries, which are more vulnerable are behind us in the timeline, so we will have a much better view on this in a couple of months.

I live in a quiet corner of Norfolk and in theory we might not have needed such stringent lockdown measures, but I am happy we do, even though I have to stand in line for shopping etc. The point is that if we didn't lockdown in my neighbourhood, we would probably be experiencing infection rates equivalent to London right now, just as the hotspots of London, Birmingham and Manchester are struggling to cope with the wave of serious cases. We should bare in mind the numbers of medical staff falling ill, meaning they can't do their jobs. Any less of a lockdown would have resulted in more infections to medical staff along with more admissions. The whole system is only just managing to deliver the basic respiratory requirements and all elective surgery has been cancelled including all but a handful of cancer patients.

At the end of the day, what price is a human life?

we just need to get you installed as Trump's righthand man and the Doomsday devise will be complete. Mien Fuhrer/Orange one/Orangutan.

Trump is claiming the qudos for saving Johnson, saying that he has personally orchestrated two US drug companies coming over to the UK hospital where Johnson is being treated so they can give him the beautiful drugs, chloroquine, I expect. It's a beautiful thing the way Trump is leading the fight against the ***** virus.

I just heard him saying that the WHO is China centric, and he's going to review US funding of the WHO.

the doomsday machine is terrifying. It's simple to understand. And completely credible, and convincing

And what about our precious bodily fluids, I hear that 5G technology is used to control the virus and weaken the life force?

But what if it's natures doomsday machine and humanity is the weed, her furher?

Johnson has gone into intensive care, I hope he pulls through.

Good article. Indian capitalism is obscene, it is based on brutal exploitation, there's nothing new here though, India has always been structured like that.

The Prime minister has just been admitted to hospital, I hope it's not serious. A spokesman says it is a precautionary measure. His deputy Dominic Raab will step in to the breach.

Old people don't count. When did you say that radical change of policy was again?

23rd March, I meant the lockdown, up until then the policy was just to let the virus spread freely, well apart from hand washing (Lady Macbeth).

Sadly, most of what I've read on the situation in the UK today lends support to un's contentions, dramatic as they are. i.e. It's quite possible that Herd Immunity (which amounts to sacrificing the old and weak for the sake of the young and strong) was never really taken off the table, but is just being done more gradually.

The issue of carehomes has just started showing up on the radar today after deaths in a carehome in Scotland. This might blow up into a storm for the government, but I expect they are confident that most homes are infected now, so they won't have to come to the rescue, just claim that they tried, or blame it on a delay in ppe provision or something.

Until then grab some grace for what others are going through before fingers are pointed.

I hear you and Unenlightened, it is difficult to express compassion when you feel overwhelmed by events, I do feel it, but tend to focus on how events are unfolding.

To be fair, I think you would have to compare the response to other countries (like France, Germany, Netherlands etc.) to see if the UK response would really stand out from other countries. I don't think it would. You can see from other examples that especially in January governments around Europe were totally dismissive about the epidemic, in February few measures were taken and in March the whole thing started in earnest. If the lockdown came for UK the 23rd of March, for Germany that general lockdown came just one day earlier (Bavaria issued it on the 20th of March). Here we had it few days earlier and some Eastern European countries opted for a lockdown also rather early, but I guess the time difference is in days, not weeks.

I can't comment much on the response by other European countries, however in the UK the government changed its response suddenly on the 23rd of March. This has been pointed out by commentators at the WHO and is a commonly held position by commentators now. Up to that point the policy was to allow the virus to spread and develop herd immunity, with a nod to slowing it a bit. Commentators have said that this change of course was due to the projected figures of deaths when the hospitals were overwhelmed being spelled out to the government. I heard someone saying that in London alone a million ventilators would have been needed in April where there were only 2 or 3 thousand ventilators in place.

This shocked the government into action, this is when Brexit fell of the table, which meant the influence of Cummings had been rejected and the UK finally got with the programme. Up until this point the virus was allowed to spread freely around London, Indeed I remarked on this on this thread at the time.

The virus is in the shanty towns of Mumbai now. There's no way back from there, they may be a month behind, but it's going to be gruesome.

with a slow response from the government medical sector than the political leadership. So if you argue that Boris Johnson was slow to react because of Brexit or for ideological reasons, then there clearly should be an obvious mismatch between the medical professionals who's job this is and the political leadership

The view is that the scientific advisors were groomed to bend a little towards the position that a lockdown, like in Wuhan, was not required because as we are all going to get the virus anyway in the long run and herd immunity was in the end going to be the natural way in which the virus would be defeated. You should imagine the scene where the head of public health and one or two scientific advisors are talked round by these right wing spin doctors, given the message that we can't risk a shock to the economy right now with the Brexit talks at a critical stage. Dominic Cummings was involved at that stage and the grooming narrative was probably very sophisticated. Plus his disposition of shouting and bullying people to fall in line.

As I said earlier, the main conduit for the virus coming into the country was air travel at this point and no restrictions at all were implemented, no checks, nothing, this went on for I think a couple of weeks. Until commentators politicians and the public were demanding action to reduce this influx and nothing was done by the government. Then the action taken was an advisory that anyone coming in from countries with many infections, or people with flu like symptoms, should look to stay at home for a week on their return. No checks, nothing. This was followed by the government putting out a plea for everyone to wash their hands frequently. Again no checks, no restrictions at airports. The policy right up to the partial lockdown was please wash your hands, nothing else.

I realise what you are saying about preparedness etc. I think the issue was lost in the attempts to recover from the subprime mortgage crash of 2008. The austerity hollowed out the health service, which became more and more strained until it is now on its knees in many respects.