France and it's former colonies should have another thread, but France isn't annexing it's former colonies back!They almost all do, or at least act as if they have that right. Look what's going on in Niger; France and USA are threatening and terrorizing it as if its their country. — Jack Rogozhin
Nonsense.This isn't an issue of imperialism at this point. It is a security and territorial dispute. — Jack Rogozhin
Not their exact motivations, but do you then totally dismiss what they state for their reasons for the actions they do? If you do so, you should explain why. Because what Putin says about Ukraine does matter. Just as important as is his opposition to NATO.Do you actually think Putin, or any somewhat functional world leader, tells us their exact motivations? — Jack Rogozhin
Again, what "NATO missiles" in Ukraine are you talking about?NATO missiles. — Jack Rogozhin
And the fact is that NATO is an international organization where the US doesn't decide everything and new members have to be accepted by all members. Just look at how difficult the road for Sweden has been. Hungary openly opposes NATO membership of Ukraine (see here) and there's not much the US can do. Remember how many times the US and it's presidents have been disappointed in NATO.It is fact the US refused to take Ukraine membership off the table; — Jack Rogozhin
Notice that this thread started before February 24th 2022. Hence the name of the thread is Ukraine crisis, not Ukraine war. And we aren't talking about the US invasion of Cuba or the US-Cuban war.It's cliche by now, but remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. Was Kennedy wrong to feel threatened — Jack Rogozhin
In similar fashion dozens of countries ought to have the "right not to consider" other countries and territories similarly. But once you acknowledge the independence of a country and it's borders, be it Ukraine, Ireland or Finland, you don't make statements of that country being "artificial" or that it's independence was an error or accident. Or that the borders are wrong. The insanity of Russian imperialism would perhaps be more clear to people if some other country would start similar rhetoric about their neighbors. Perhaps Austria should declare it's objective to re-establish the Austro-Hungarian Empire or the UK would declare that it's objective is to get the whole of Ireland back into the Kingdom, because Home Rule etc. was an error. After all, the two countries have language and cultural ties quite as long as Russia and Ukraine share.Russia rightly doesn't consider Crimea taken land. — Jack Rogozhin
You don't have to be. A good start is to read what Putin has said and written. There's bound to be some links to his actual motivations on what he has written or what speeches he has given.I wouldn't presume to know his actual motivations. I don't know him and I'm not a psychologist. — Jack Rogozhin
What missiles are you talking about? Besides, Ukraine wouldn't have become a NATO member. It wouldn't have been just the countries like Hungary that would have opposed this, it actually would have been Germany. But then February 24th 2022 happened. Ukraine's path to NATO would have been blocked just the way Turkey's EU membership is off and no way happening, but theoretically (hypocritically) possible.I don't think Putin was primarily acting out of his country's interests, but Ukraine and NATO created a legitmate threat against his country and himself when Ukraine refused to remain neutral and NATO refused to not put missiles in Ukraine. — Jack Rogozhin
Well, it's a bit difficult to catch up to a thread that is over 500 pages long, I guess.What is the rule here? Are positions only allowed to be said once? — Jack Rogozhin
If the ICC has made the case against these actions and the numbers are well in the many thousands, including cases where Russia has then released back Ukrainian children who had been taken earlier, the idea of it not happening is absurd.Have these Russification programs and kidnapping of children been established? — Jack Rogozhin

I think you make a separation of what the objectives were prior to the assault and what they have become after a year and a half of fighting. One assumption was that the Ukrainians wouldn't put up a defense and thus the "lightning strike" attempt for example towards Kyiv, which ended badly. It's a bit eary just how close to what Russia tried to get is to what Russian propaganda earlier published as the boundaries of Novorossiya:I know many disagree, but I believe the Donbass--which Russia certainly hasn't captured--was their territorial goal. — Jack Rogozhin


I'm not so sure that the US & NATO response of using force in the case of nuclear weapons being used was just a bluff. Or is a bluff.In such a situation, dropping nukes on Ukraine would stabilise the military situation as Ukraine would have no way to nuclear retaliate. Stabilising from their perspective (the perspective of the people considering nuclear use in a unstable and deteriorating situation). — boethius
It's quite possible that this war becomes a frozen conflict (as Russia just loves frozen conflicts!) and Russia keeps the Donbass. However Russia giving "unhappy Ukrainians" the option to leave is more remote when you take into account just what Russia has now done in the occupied territories with it's Russification programs and even kidnapping children.Newcomer here, so tell me if I'm repeating. Is there any other feasible outcome at this point than Russia keeping the Donbass, with all Ukrainians unhappy with that moving West. — Jack Rogozhin
Wars do end some way or another in the end. And do note that Russia hasn't been able for a long time to conquer new territories and has entrenched itself in a very defensive posture, likely because of necessity.It just doesn't seem like Ukraine can take it back...without getting destroyed in the process...and the Russian Ukrainians of the Donbas want to stay part of Russia — Jack Rogozhin
As much as humanity has engineered the planet, the answer is of course. The good thing is that compassion and empathy is also something important for our survival and prosperity also. We simply don't understand how we are changing the biosphere through our actions, especially in the long run, hence it's beneficial for us to try to keep a status quo with part of the biosphere and ecology.Another important question: Is it essential that humanity have compassion and empathy towards animals on earth? — chiknsld
China isn't poor and there's still a functioning global grain market. Russia will be eager to compensate for any problems the war causes for China. Hence if China doesn't get grain from the Black Sea, then it gets it somewhere else.China is a major customer of that grain. It looks like a major divergence of interests has developed between partners sworn to never part. — Paine
Don't assume the logical with current US politics. And never underestimate how bizarre populist politics and polarization can be.Still reckon Trump will never get the Republcan nomination, polling data notwithstanding. — Quixodian
I would absolutely defend the claim that Fukuyama has been 100% correct on no major, international rival claimant emerging to challenge liberal democracy, which is itself pretty remarkable given the history from 1780-1980. — Count Timothy von Icarus
China is the one potential counter example. — Count Timothy von Icarus
Link didn't work, but I guess I found what four terms were talked about.I'm not sure what that's supposed to indicate. — Isaac
Yes, China's involvement I think would be incredibly useful. — Isaac
Or looked in the wrong place. Fukuyama was a neocon and then, afterwards, distanced himself from the Bush era neocons and wrote an apology of a book about it in 2006 (After the Neocons: America at the Crossroads).Thus, Fukuyama appears to be looking in the wrong place for a new movement. — Count Timothy von Icarus
The irony here is that the thing Mearsheimer got right (in the 1990's) was that Russia would attack Ukraine if Ukraine would give up it's nuclear deterrence. :smirk:Mearsheimer is good when he sticks to a small scale. It's his attempts at big picture theorizing that really go off the rails. I appreciate that you have to "go big" to move the ball along on theory, even if it means getting a lot wrong, but the problems in "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics'" Offensive Realism are such that I think it's worth questioning if it was worth publishing. It makes the realist camp in IR look like a caricature, and got basically every prediction about the post-Cold War era wrong. — Count Timothy von Icarus
If the term "coup" is too much, then use the word mutiny. Yet I'm not so convinced about the disbandment of the Wagner group as you are. Just yesterday Prigozhin met a representative from the Central African Republic in St. Petersbugh at the Russia-Africa summit. Wagner provides the regime of CAR crucial support and has I think gold mines there, which brings a lot of income to Prigozhin/Wagner.Considering Prigozhin seems still alive and seems to have even met with Putin in person, I find it really difficult to believe this was a genuine coup attempt.
Has it disbanded?
— ssu
It's effectively disbanded, ordered to either join the regular military, go to Belarus or go home. — boethius


Having the conflict and the killing halt somehow obviously would be a good thing. And it's now obvious that Russia doesn't have the ability to destroy the Ukrainian military, hence some kind of settlement between both sides has to be reached by both sides. Yet this depends on the military situation. If war is a continuation of politics by other means, then surely a political settlement of a war depends on the military situation on the ground.I get your point. It's a valid one. Holding a different one doesn't make one uniformed, biased, nor a putin-supporter. We all want an end to this war we just have a difference of opinion as to how.
what was the likelyhood of Russia to negotiate a peace when it was still wanting to denazify Ukraine, when it was still engaged in the battle of Kyiv and war enthusiasm was very high?
— ssu
I don't know, it's not my area of expertise. Obviously people better informed than me thought it possible so that's good enough for me to consider it a reasonable option. Obviously, if possible, its the better one. — Isaac
Please give a reference to this or the source. What does neutral Donbas mean? Luhansk and Donetsk Republics in what kind of state towards Russia and Ukraine?On the table, I believe, was a neutral Donbas, and, non-NATO Ukraine. Russia believes it has a right to a 'sphere of influence' in the region. — Isaac
Ahhh!!! The deep insightful wisdom of Jeffrey Sachs, Mearsheimer & co.So are you smarter or better informed than Jeffrey Sachs. Which is it? — Isaac

Perhaps the sneaking in part isn’t so easy?Why don't they sneak in and attach bombs to the columns? Boom! — frank
Great point! Unfortunately in the school and even in the university science and especially math isn’t taught like this: how not only the mathematician/scientist came to the conclusion, but how the scientific community accepted the result. There simply isn’t the time. Hence you are taught the theory, the proof, the conclusions. And that’s it, then forward. Not much if anything on how it was done, what were the objections, possible earlier errors etc.I've often wished math and science were taught with more of an eye to history. — Srap Tasmaner
An interesting an multifaceted question. I think the total acceptance and normalization isn’t beneficial. Going to brothel shouldn’t be as normal as going to the gym (where you pay for doing physical exercise that you could basically do without the charge).Is it a good thing that "prostitution" (under any name) is stigmatized? — BC
And on what terms were they (the Russians) negotiating with the neonazis they were meant to denazify back then?The Russians and the Ukrainians were ready for peace. — Tzeentch
But what really ended efforts to bring about peace – which had continued since the 24 February invasion – was the proclaimed annexation of the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Cherson. Since his election in 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called on Putin to agree to a personal meeting, even in the first weeks of this year’s Russian invasion. But on 4 October 2022, in response to the actions of the Russian side, he signed a decree rejecting direct talks. Ever since the beginning of the Russian aggression in 2014, and all the more so since 24 February 2022, the course of Ukrainian-Russian negotiations has been highly dependent on the situation in the battlefield and the broader political context.
Scarcely a month into the war Russia was speaking of denazification of Ukraine and on the offensive, so your argument that it was Washington’s ego that blocked peace talks is hilarious. (Or actually, very typical to you…)How far should the situation in Ukraine deterioriate before we can agree the peace accords that were on the table in March / April 2022, scarcely a month into the war, should have been carried out instead of blocked by the US?
Those were blocked by the US simply to save Washington's ego. — Tzeentch
It’s an interesting issue, but perhaps on another thread about US-Chinese tensions.Apologies for the side-track. — jorndoe
In that case guess he has good chances with the hard-core Republicas, I guess.But DeSantis may actually be worse. He seems like a meaner, dumber, younger and less charismatic version of Trump — GRWelsh
That talks before Feb 24th show this quite obviously. It wouldn’t have been Hungary, it would also have been Germany. Just as a decade earlier the Wikileaks papers told how US official saw ”a lot of work” to be done then with Germany. Well, that field of work existed prior to the full invasion also.Russia provided that show of force the same year NATO proclaimed its intention to incorporate Ukraine and Georgia. So I guess it's not that 'simple'. — Tzeentch
