The differences between Bernie and Biden are numerically small in the battleground states, but in my mind, the significance is magnified by the context: Trump can win each one of those states. If he wins the 3 biggest (Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan), he will win the election. He won those 3 in 2016. This makes me more nervous than does the coronavirus. Despite the low probability I will die if I get it, I'm taking the recommended precautions (social distancing, hand-washing, etc). Analogously, I'm taking precautions against Trump's being reelected.But as you saw, Bernie is very close with Biden in national polls and fairs well in battleground states as well. So it is a little riskier, but not by much. — Xtrix
Yes, and please do.
You're right about turnout -- that's harder to predict. My "hunch" tells me that enthusiasm matters, but that doesn't seem to be panning out for Bernie with younger voters (who he wins 80% or so of). — Xtrix
Yes, because you assume that the company that employed me (note the past tense; I'm retired) defines my political deology. Here's some other things about me:Bigot? — creativesoul
I have given my honest analysis. I may be wrong. Xtrix provided some cogent reasons to think I might be. You have just been an asshole.That would explain the push for Biden and the attempt to portray Bernie as 'unelectable'... — creativesoul
Great idea! He could tell them, "What have you got to lose?" Hmmm...that sounds vaguely familiar.Bernie could easily inform the black voters of how the DNC has been horrible for them, as well as the RNC — creativesoul
Perot got zero electoral votes. Hillary won the popular vote 48% to 46%. The election will be won in the swing states.Ross Perot got nearly nineteen percent against Bush Sr. and Clinton. — creativesoul
Bigot.Finally, I live in Texas, and worked for an oil company 33 years. — Relativist
That would explain the push for Biden and the attempt to portray Bernie as 'unelectable'... — creativesoul
You make some good points, so I'm reconsidering. I'll review the latest polling in swing states and see what they tell us.
One thing that doesn't seem to be measurable is voter turnout. e.g. Turnout by African Americans was the difference in Obama winning and Hillary losing. On this measure, Biden's popularity with blacks is important. — Xtrix
Which of those items did he not deliver on at least in a qualified way? To be clear, I'm not a fan of the deliverables.And of course he actually hasn't delivered, but that doesn't matter. — ssu
What evidence am I ignoring? I haven't ignored the polling, I just don't think a raw reading of the polls tells the whole story - note how variable they are. This suggests a higher degree of error in them than the statistical analysis suggests. I'll give you more background on my position.But I think in your case the evidence is being ignored for a more speculative and "instincts"-based justification. — Xtrix
Your beliefs, desires, and mood contribute to making you who you are. Your choices are therefore a product of you, and you alone.I would argue that there are 3 things that enforce your actions. Beliefs, Desires (or wants), Mood. None of which are your choice. — chatterbears
Trump's promises were appealing to some: a wall paid for by Mexico, a Muslim ban, tax cuts, replacing NAFTA, withdrawing from the Iran deal, and most important of all: judges who would strike down Roe v Wade.If people were used to voting based on policy, Hillary would've won. — Benkei
Which makes perfect sense if they truly believed a moderate had a better chance than Bernie, and they accepted the fact that they couldn't be the one.You believe the DNC is conspiring against Bernie by disseminating the notion that Bernie isn't as electable. What evidence do you have of this? Bernie's electability was an issue during the debates. Candidates like Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Steier, and Bloomberg made an issue of it... — Relativist
All of whom immediately endorsed Biden after securing just about the same amount of delegates as Bernie found himself behind after super tuesday. — creativesoul
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:The third party run would result in a Bernie presidency — creativesoul
Sure- we can't KNOW who is more electable, but we can and should make a best guess.Regardless... electability quite simply is an unknown. — creativesoul
Trump says stupid things every day. There's so many of them, that a few more won't change anyone's opinion of him. Trump WILL twist the "socialist" label, and lots of people will fall for it. He'll pounce on the high cost of Bernie's programs, just as did his Democratic debate opponents. More voters are likely to be swayed by nonsensical one-liners ("Crooked Hillary", "brain dead Bernie") than by reasoned arguments. It will be painted as "our side" vs "communism" (Trump has already called him that).Bernie destroys Trump in a national debate. He would make him look like the fool that he is. — creativesoul
That's inevitable. The alternative is a corpse, and I don't think they're eligible.I hope Biden selects a younger, healthier, more functional Vice President — Bitter Crank
The election ought be post-poned due to the corona virus. — creativesoul
I admire your optimism.They win, and they do so by telling the inconvenient truth to the American people.
In doing so, they will have helped created a well informed electorate. — creativesoul
I was discussing electability. Did you overlook this statement? --I don't care to debate who's the best person for the Presidency.
What an odd thing to say given the context...
:brow:
What are you doing here then? — creativesoul
Here's why I think Biden has a better chance to beat Trump than does Sanders:... — Relativist
I live in Texas, a heavily red state. But there is at least a small chance that Texas will go for Biden. If Texas goes that way, Trump is likely to lose in a landslide. That would make me very happy, so I will do my little part to help that possibility happen.I live in a solid blue state so I usually vote 3rd party (usually Green) because to do otherwise would be to throw my vote away. If the Democrats ever nominate a candidate that at least moves them in the right direction, like Bernie, then I'll vote for them as a reward.
But f I lived in a swing state, I would vote for whoever go the Democratic nomination just to stop the Republican candidate (so long as those nominees continue to stand for the things their parties generally stand for), so I answered "Biden" in this poll. — Pfhorrest
You haven't addressed what I wrote, and I don't care to debate who's the best person for the Presidency. I'm primarily concerned with who's the worst.Care to address what I actually wrote? I mean, I know your personal straw targets are easy kills, but come on man... — creativesoul
I agree my list is irrelevant to your choice of whom to vote for.You offered a very long list of fucking irrelevency — creativesoul
He can certainly do that, and it will guarantee Trump another 4 years.Bernie runs as an independent and during the national debates clearly makes the case regarding how both parties have caused everyday average Americans harm by virtue of acting upon the best interest of corporations when their interests conflicted with the average everyday American's. — creativesoul
Relativist: If Bernie does that, who will this convince to vote for him?
Anyone and everyone who wants to know what has actually been going on in the American government for the last fifty years that has caused the quality of everyday average American lives to plummet the way that it has. — creativesoul
I get it: you want people to vote for Bernie. It's too late for me, the Texas primary is over. Do what you can to get that message out to voters in the states that haven't yet had their primaries. If the choice is as obvious as you believe it to be, then it shouldn't be a problem.Do you want someone like Trump who has no concern whatsoever beyond his own image and wealth? Do you want someone like Biden who does not have a clue how to fix all the problems facing the people he has convinced to vote for him? Not a clue
I'm not saying that at all. I'm just counting votes, and you're mistaking that for being anti-Bernie or anti-Bernie ideas, or campaigning for BidenSo, your argument is that because doing the right things will scare too many Republicans who do not want to do the right things, that we ought not do the right things... — creativesoul
Well, since you asked...
You left out all of the most important stuff.
...Which candidate actually has a good grasp upon the root problems(actual legislation over the last fifty or so years) that have caused so so many poor Americans to become disillusioned with government altogether?
...Which candidate was on the right side of history in the moment?
...Which candidate acknowledges these problems and is willing to do everything it takes to get them corrected... even if it is a long road?
.
...Which candidate can explain these problems and their solutions to everyday Americans in clear and understandable terms? — creativesoul
By "original post" are you referring to the one where you referenced the Newsweek article? It doesn't address the topic of who has a better chance betwee Biden and Bernie. Sure, Biden has vulnerabilities. It's an exaggeration to claim he has dementia, so if want to make a case you should avoid hyperbole. Bernie has liabilities too, and I've seen no acknowledgment. His liabilities are the polarizing nature of his policies. I wonder if you simply don't want to believe that, because of your passion for his policies. Bernie's policies turn more people off than does Biden's. Either of them can get the strong anti-Trump vote, so I calculate a net loss for Bernie.Ohhhhh boy. I'm just gonna refer you right back to my original post in which I showed that Biden and Bernie are TIED as to who will vote for them over Trump.
I'm sorry, but it really seems like you just don't want to understand what several people (so, phew, it's not just me!) here have been telling you. — Artemis
I am one of them, and I see good reasons to think it's true, and haven't seen good reasons to think otherwise. Got any?Because voters have been convinced that he can't win and isn't "electable." — Xtrix
Of course, but it makes it a reasonable belief. I'm awaiting reasons to believe it false. This isn't one:ust because they sound like they could be true, doesn't mean they are. — Artemis
The metric cited is popularity with his constituents. Sure, he's a shoe-in to win Vermont. This has no bearing on whether he can win Florida or Michigan.He's the most popular senator in America.
https://politicalwire.com/2020/01/16/sanders-is-most-popular-senator/ — Artemis
Will you vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee?His policies are also the ones that most Americans support. — Artemis