I would assume the same would be true for the US if China were running military drills in Mexico. Wouldn’t make the US right to invade Mexico, but I think the least we’d say is that it would be a major factor. — Mikie

These sorts of thought experiments have come up before, e.g. Oct 11, 2023. Let's have your take on it. (y)

I guess that's what things look like on the ground at the moment ...

Finnish volunteers target Russian soldiers during fierce gun battle in Ukraine (Daily Mail · 1m:9s · Nov 19, 2023)


... in some places anyway.

Someone should set up a venture: "Treat yourself to a thrilling action adventure in Ukraine. Safety not guaranteed. The new trend in vacation." :)

, can't differentiate the :fire: war, and Putin's idiotic decision? Brilliant. :D Putin's (official) reasons were spoken, and they didn't compel his decision, nor was it necessary.

By the way, recall Dmitry Kozak? Recall the spoken demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine and neo-Nazist Kyiv? Not a fifth of Ukraine. Well, maybe that was lying, or they're incapable of taking over (at the moment). Recall where NATO-related nuclear weapons are placed? And the Kremlin circle's hand-waving paranoia about Russia being doomed to destruction? ... Anyway, all trite re-repetition.

As an aside, I'm a bit surprised no one has claimed that Washington is the real actual true cause of Putin's rise. :)

Putin should be detained (or go on extended vacation), Ukraine should perhaps eventually join the EU, and not become a military-industrial powerhouse.

NATO expansion was the most direct cause of this war. — Mikie

No. This decision remains the most direct cause of this war:
"On conducting a special military operation" —Putin

Russian elections expected in Mar 2024.

Vladimir Putin’s interview with Le Figaro
^{— The Kremlin · May 31, 2017}

This is what distinguishes a true world leader from the people we call temporary caretakers, who come for five minutes to show off on the international platform, and then disappear just as quietly. — Putin · Oct 2023

Peskov is convinced that the next president of the Russian Federation should be “the same” as Putin
^{— TASS · Nov 17, 2023}
Jailed Russian nationalist Girkin warns of 'sham' presidential election
^{— Guy Faulconbridge, Elaine Monaghan, Clelia Oziel, Barbara Lewis · Reuters · Nov 19, 2023}

I can easily see Putin and Patrushev in the Kremlin (both bad news), for example. (Navalny is rather unlikely these days.)

Time for some bets? :)

The question is whether we — the US —should have taken the Russian perspective seriously. — Mikie

"the Russian [monolith] perspective", or the (current) Kremlin's?

In this context, the main perspective is Ukrainian; just about everything that happens here is about / in Ukraine. Leave that out, and you've lost perspective — perspective that matter.

By the way, the (supposed) NATO-phobia has come numerous times in the thread already. I suppose it's time for a re-repeat?

I suppose this shows the danger of being out in the open:

Wherever a 155mm projectile will not reach, a missile launched from HIMARS will reach. (Armed Forces of Ukraine · 16s · Nov 10, 2023)

Effective coordination between the aerial reconnaissance of a separate artillery brigade of the Russian Air Force and the HIMARS calculation for the destruction of the enemy "Gradu".

Offensive and movement in monitored areas are very unsafe, hence hunkering down and longer-distance bombing.

No.

I'm wondering why "state" continues to be described as some external, independent, sentient being "out there". It's existentially dependent on people, not some separate entity.

Anyway, a successful state? I thought there were just less unsuccessful states? :)

, hey that could be a useful metric. At least, if many more people want to exit one, and enter another, then the latter is the more successful in some way.

In addition to Iranian kamikaze drones, Chinese "multi-purpose" gear and North Korean bombs, Pakistan Egypt Belarus Brazil buybacks:

Russia Turns to Longtime Arms Customers to Boost War Arsenal
^{— Thomas Grove, Summer Said, Luciana Magalhaes, Gordon Lubold, Saeed Shah, Chao Deng · WSJ · Nov 8, 2023}

Russia spent decades building its arms trade. Now they're going back in secret to their customers trying to buy back what they sold them.

Concerns about running out of means to terrorize Ukraine?

Occupiers report missile attack on Skadovsk: Russian base supposedly hit
^{— Ukrainska Pravda via Yahoo · Nov 9, 2023}

Surgical strike in the south? Either way, Saldo seems to be in a precarious situation.

, the Kremlin gets their way, or it's the nuclear way...?

Russian Official Issues Nuclear Weapons Warning After Historic Achievement
^{— Nick Mordowanec · Newsweek · Nov 6, 2023}

For the first time in the history of the existence of nuclear missile weapons, our country is ahead of its competitors in this [nuclear] domain. — Patrushev (Russia Today)

For some reason, American politicians who are held captive by their own propaganda remain confident that in the event of a direct conflict with Russia, the United States is capable of launching a preventive missile strike, after which Russia will no longer be able to respond. — Patrushev (Rossiyskaya Gazeta)

Putin ally: West increasing risk of weapons of mass destruction being used
^{— Guy Faulconbridge, Andrew Osborn, Timothy Heritage · Reuters · Nov 8, 2023}

The natural consequence of the United States' destructive policies is the deterioration in global security. The risk that nuclear, chemical and biological weapons will be used is increasing. The international arms control regime has been undermined. — Patrushev (TASS)

Cold war style paranoia? When was the last time someone threatened the Kremlin with attacking Russia? Nuclear assault? Why would anyone want to? Investment opporutnity?

Meanwhile...

Moscow bombarded 118 Ukraine towns: officials | WION Speed News (WION · 13m:25s · Nov 8, 2023)


Not much by way of a peace trajectory coming out of the Kremlin circle these days. Rich powerful guys terrorize Ukraine and talk paranoia.

Chechen warlord appoints son, 15, as head of his security service (— Sara Odeen-Isbister · Metro · Nov 5, 2023) (also reported by Reuters and Euronews and others)

Not like when I grew up.

According to Express UK and their sources, Russia (partially) went into a war economy, various places (shopping malls, whatever companies) turned into arms production and such.
Anyway, things might not be as rosy in those parts as Pesky says, surely not if some of those casualty estimates are in the right range.
A war economy in part (or perhaps whole) isn't all that surprising with their current leadership, is it?

Transcript: Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova on "Face the Nation," Nov. 5, 2023 (Margaret Brennan · CBS)

Thunberg — Deacon

If I remember right, those people are mostly concerned with policy.

It is the younger generation who is "setting one generation against another". — Agree-to-Disagree

Or climate activists calling out policymakers.

With the brewing climate change, these have taken part in shaping the present: pandemic (Dec 2019), the US leaving Afghanistan (Feb 2020), Russia invading Ukraine (Feb 2022 (also Feb 2014)), Hamas-Israel warring (Oct 2023).
Whether we like it or not, there will be future impact as well.
Frederick Kempe noted "pay now or pay more later".
Paying my part.
What's the cost of longer-term prosperity, progress, anyway?

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia
^{— The Economist · Nov 1, 2023}

Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.
I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.
On our monitor screens the day I was there we saw 140 Russian machines ablaze—destroyed within four hours of coming within firing range of our artillery.
The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other.
It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods.
Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people. — Zaluzhnyi

Peskov commented on Zaluzhnyi’s words about the deadlock in the conflict in Ukraine (en)
^{— TASS · Nov 2, 2023}

No, it has not reached a stalemate. Russia is consistently continuing to conduct a special military operation. All the goals set must be fulfilled. — Pesky

Five factors, according to Zaluzhnyi, for Ukraine to progress significantly: air force, electronic warfare, counter-battery fire, dealing with the extensive minefields, reserves.

The Kremlin's (official) goals have gone a bit here and there, though:

Lavrov says Russia’s objectives in Ukraine now extend beyond eastern Donbas region
^{— Radina Gigova, Sana Noor Haq, Jack Guy, Rob Picheta, Tim Lister, Kostan Nechyporenko, Oren Liebermann · CNN · Jul 20, 2022}

At least Zaluzhnyi isn't propagandizing like Pesky.

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say
^{— Courtney Kube, Carol E Lee, Kristen Welker · NBC · Nov 3, 2023}

Going by the (official current) Kremlin, it's either continue bombing/destruction, or expansion of authoritarianism regress oppression (and wherever that may lead). Meanwhile their prison population has halved or something.

Unverified independently (though consistent with other efforts):

New recruitment scheme for those unwilling to join the Russian army. (Anton Gerashchenko · Nov 1, 2023)

Some Russian polls, FYI:

Conflict with Ukraine: October 2023 estimates (en) (Levada-Center · Oct 31, 2023)

, , I guess this stuff is a step in that direction, sort of ...?

CEO on why giving all employees minimum salary of $70,000 still "works" six years later: "Our turnover rate was cut in half" (CBS · Sep 16, 2021)

The Company Where Every Employee Earns the Same (WIRED · May 30, 2023)

Who really needs 3 cars and 2 houses anyway? Cut down on the excess.

I guess, by some odd logic, North Korea is waging a proxy war with Ukraine:

North Korea believed to have exported over 1 million shells to Russia
^{— Yoonjung Seo, Sophie Tanno · CNN · Nov 1, 2023}

Those 10 shipments could have made a big :fire: somewhere.

, seems absurd. I guess there's some sort of tactical advantage of sitting on the hill.

, right, yes, in broad strokes, "the West" is often North America + Europe + Australia + New Zealand.

Oct 30, 2023 Russia blames Ukraine and the West for Dagestan airport unrest (Al Jazeera)

"Thief thinks everyone steals." (?)

I'm with the good Doc:

Your future is whatever you make it, so make it a good one. — Dr Emmett Brown (1990)

if people can remember what mistakes not to repeat — Vera Mont

Evidently, people can't. :/ Or at least enough people can't.

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it. — Santayana (1905)

I'd say worth serious consideration, except keep it legit. Either way, when the Kremlin deteriorates, all kinds of things are affected. Agreement/unity is unlikely, though. Has come up before.

EU leaders approve using profits from frozen Russian assets
^{— Paola Tamma, Jacopo Barigazzi, Laura Hülsemann · POLITICO · Oct 27, 2023}
Moscow will confiscate EU assets if Brussels 'steals' frozen Russian funds, Putin ally [†] says
^{— Reuters · Oct 29, 2023}

For: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Poland
Cautious due to legalities and economics: Belgium, Luxembourg
Hesitant due to € financialities: France, Germany, ... (The European Central Bank)

[†] Volodin


Out of Solovyov, Medvedev, Trump, who rambles or bullshits the most? :D

Attention, Germany! Russian propagandist Solovyev threatens that Berlin will exist "under the Russian flag." (Gerashchenko · 1m:18s · Oct 30, 2023)

The "quiet invasion" ...

Denial of Georgia's EU membership bid would be "a big victory for Russia," President Zourabichvili says
^{— Sharyn Alfonsi, Ashley Velie, Jennifer Dozor, Erin DuCharme, Peter M Berman · CBS · Oct 29, 2023}

, let me just check that I understand your theory, the military-industrial complex decides what is and isn't sent to Ukraine, and they're in business.

At 11:54 he again forgets that the US isn't handling satellite states like Stalin did with NATO members and Ukraine or Georgia [...] — ssu

Never mind. We'll do it our own way later. — Stalin

Maybe Mearsheimer forgot post-Yalta. At least that Stalin-world ended.

And Western Europe would create it's defense towards Russia without the US — ssu

I suppose one could hope anyway (all of Europe preferably). Expensive, though. The (present somewhat Stalin'esque) Kremlin looms large on the horizon.

Sudan has been a long disaster, humanitarian and otherwise. I'm not particularly optimistic.

Domitilla Sagramoso interview:

'Momentum is on side of Russia' despite minor Ukrainian victories, 'increasing opposition' to Putin
^{— François Picard · France 24 · 9m:44s · Oct 26, 2023}

Slovakia's new populist Prime Minister Robert Fico said Thursday that his government was stopping military aid to Ukraine. Fico told MPs that the country would "no longer supply weapons to Ukraine", repeating promises made during his election campaign, but would still supply humanitarian aid to its war-torn neighbour. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective on Russia's brutal war on Ukraine and Slovakia's decision to end military aid to Kyiv, FRANCE 24's François Picard is joined by Dr. Domitilla Sagramoso, Senior Lecturer in Security and Development and expert on Russian foreign and security policy at King's College London.

By the way, , Hawley's comments, "I also wish our European allies to do their part", echoes what Obama and others have aired prior. So easily post-Yalta is forgotten (also set out in some detail by Anne Applebaum (2012)).

Opinion | Josh Hawley Is Wrong About Israel and Ukraine
^{— Rich Lowry · POLITICO · Oct 11, 2023}

Russia-Ukraine are warring, Hamas-Israel are warring, though not China. Hawley's "I don't see where this is going" oddly forgets the active and violent proliferation of authoritarianism regression oppression contra democracy transparency freedom. I suppose Kara-Murza likely agrees.

why not just ask the US to supply the longer range — boethius

Not just the US, but you're right. They should just have been given the tools/resources from the get-go.


On Russian Nuclear Threat, Putin Lets Others Rattle the Saber
^{— Paul Sonne, David E Sanger · New York Times · Oct 7, 2023}

Oct 20, 2023

Ukraine holds peace formula talks in Malta, Russia absent
^{— Christopher Scicluna, Elaine Monaghan, Andrew Gray, Olena Harmash, David Evans, Mike Harrison · Reuters · Oct 28, 2023}

The world has told the Kremlin όχι.

, sure seems conflicting.

A bit like when Saudi Arabia chaired UN's Human Rights thing, or Russia led UN's Security thing.

I suppose, having the theocrats take some responsibility for all to see, being inclusive, could have some positive effects. One could hope anyway, though admittedly I haven't (personally) been impressed so far.

One day the president of Israel will be a Muslim and all the old people will be like, I thought this would never happen! — frank

Better yet, one day a secular Buddhist will be president of the whole area, and it'll be a genuine democracy with separation of religion and politics.

Doesn't warring itself breach human rights and all that? In a way, if that's where you start reasoning, haven't you already lost...?

Explainer: What war crimes laws apply to the Israel-Palestinian conflict?
^{— Stephanie van den Berg, Anthony Deutsch, Giles Elgood · Reuters · Oct 26, 2023}

What constitutes a war crime? (NBC · 4m:46s · Oct 26, 2023)

all is fair in love and war — @user-bx6we4od7d

If someone has the means and opportunity, then the decision is theirs, others can't decide not to. Anyone may argue about motive, which often enough ends up shrouded in rhetoric.

Migrants Reportedly Being Forced To Sign Contracts With Defense Ministry To Obtain Russian Citizenship
^{— Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, Frederick W Kagan · RFE/RL · Aug 28, 2023}

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24, 2023
^{— Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, Frederick W Kagan · ISW · Oct 24, 2023}

Russian authorities are intensifying mobilization efforts targeting Central Asian migrant communities in Russia. Russian Internal Affairs (MVD) Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev met with the MVD board to discuss “migration problems” and “ethnic crime” and insinuated that migrants commit crimes at a higher rate than natural born Russian citizens.⁽⁷⁾ Kolokoltsev defended recent Russian law enforcement mobilization raids on migrant communities and claimed that Russian law enforcement is enforcing standard legal norms.⁽⁸⁾ A Russian insider source claimed that the Russian Investigative Committee is conducting investigations into naturalized migrants with Russian citizenship and is reopening previously terminated and canceled criminal cases in order to mobilize migrants to fight in Ukraine.⁽⁹⁾ The insider source also claimed that the Russian Investigative Committee will now investigate migrants for committing any offense, even minor ones, and will expand that individual’s investigation to include their friends and family. The insider source claimed that unspecified actors, possibly the MVD or MVD Head Alexander Bastrykin, ordered Russian state media to increase reporting about ethnic crime in Russia, likely to set informational conditions for further mobilization raids on migrant communities.⁽¹⁰⁾ Bastrykin has continually advocated for the targeted mobilization of migrants with Russian citizenship, in line with Russian law enforcement’s recent expansion of its efforts to detain and forcibly register migrants with Russian citizenship for military service.<sup>(11)

(7) https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/30299 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/13239 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/15640 ; https://mvdmedia.ru/news/official/vladimir-kolokoltsev-provel-zasedanie-kollegii-mvd-rossii-posvyashchennoe-protivodeystviyu-nelegalno/
(8) https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/30299 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/13239 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/15640 ; https://mvdmedia.ru/news/official/vladimir-kolokoltsev-provel-zasedanie-kollegii-mvd-rossii-posvyashchennoe-protivodeystviyu-nelegalno/
(9) https://t.me/vchkogpu/43131
(10) https://t.me/vchkogpu/43131
(11) https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-22-2023 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-20-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-12-2023</sup>

Putin sends message in German to Schröder's critics
^{— t-online · Oct 24, 2023}

I would like to say, the further one gets from Schröder, the closer one comes to Anthony Rota, the Speaker of the Canadian Parliament, who sympathizes with the Nazis. There are many decent people in Germany, and I am sure many will hear this. — Pukin

Plainly, Rota isn't Nazi or a sympathizer. Neither is the Canadian government, nor the Canadian populace at large. That then makes Putin a liar, caught in the act. Don't know if any of his home peers called him out; if any have or will, hopefully, they won't get "sent away" as "extremists".

But, hey, yes, there are many good Germans.

‘So Russians don’t fear them’ Putin administration tells pro-government media not to report on crimes committed by returning soldiers
^{— Andrey Pertsev · Meduza · Oct 24, 2023}

Uh-oh Azerbaijan → Armenia :fire:

Is one of Russia’s oldest allies slipping from the Kremlin’s orbit?
^{— Christian Edwards, Caolán Magee · CNN · Sep 17, 2023}
France sends weapons to Armenia amid fears of new conflict with Azerbaijan
^{— Laura Kayali, Gabriel Gavin · POLITICO · Oct 23, 2023}
Azerbaijan Could Invade Armenia. The U.S. Must Intervene
^{— Simon Maghakyan · TIME · Oct 24, 2023}

Perhaps a "world order" ought to be one by which attacks/takeovers are less feasible, more disincentivized? Ethics-driven culture seems to have partially failed.

US says China has significantly expanded its nuclear arsenal
^{— Al Jazeera · Oct 20, 2023}
Russia unconcerned by China increasing nuclear arsenal capabilities, says Kremlin
^{— Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones · Reuters · Oct 25, 2023}

This does not cause us concern, our relations are an advanced strategic partnership, we have the most advanced stage of political dialogue, economic interaction. And in this case, China, which faces very serious challenges for its own security in the region, is taking steps that it considers appropriate. This is the absolute sovereign right of this country. — Pesky

What threats have been exerted prompting China's (supposed) need for a fresh nuclear arms race? Oddly perhaps, the Kremlin comes up first in that respect.

Ukraine’s race to build its own arms industry
^{— Alec Russell, Christopher Miller, Roman Olearchyk · Financial Times · Oct 23, 2023}

We have a huge deficit of ammunition not just in Ukraine but all over the world. We understand we should produce this here in Ukraine because all around the world it’s finished, it’s depleted. All the warehouses are empty. — Denys Shmyhal

Back to sticks'n'stones? :) (if only everyone would run out at the same time :cool:)

Concerning if Ukraine becomes a military-industrial powerhouse? At the moment they have good reasons. Later?

, the Kremlin blamed the Navalny poisoning thing on the CIA of all things. It became ridiculous some time ago. Meanwhile, they proliferate authoritarianism regression oppression contra democracy transparency freedom, which they continue to divert/misdirect from when blaming everyone else (with some success I might add).

Unexpected:

Anchor of Chinese container vessel caused damage to Balticconnector gas pipeline, Finnish police say
^{— Jari Tanner · AP · Oct 24, 2023}

Anyone up for watching a crime drama about poisoning and trying to hide it, detective work, political activism, courage, might check Navalny (2022).

I was a bit taken aback by the strength of evidence implicating the Kremlin circle, a real-life conspiracy if you will.

For his flaws, Navalny's story is also a story of Putin's authoritarian regime. I doubt Navalny would be a worse president than Putin is (regressive opaque oppressive sinister).

A Discussion of “Navalny": the Documentary
^{— Wilson Center · 58m · Apr 18, 2022}

Bits and pieces of Putin's televised response in 2020 (or related) can be found out there ... RFE/RL, CBC, CNN, DW, Daily Mail, BBC, ... "Yeah, sorry Pukin. Won't fly."

Column: Is the documentary ‘Navalny’ a life insurance policy for the imprisoned Russian opposition leader?
^{— Robin Abcarian · Los Angeles Times · Dec 14, 2022}

Unless something changes, it seems unlikely Navalny will ever see the light of day again (or his lawyers), but whatever happened to Kudryavtsev...?

If I were in Kyiv, I'd be looking elsewhere.

Kremlin says U.S. can't build 'new world order' that Biden spoke of
^{— Gareth Jones · Reuters · Oct 23, 2023}

Allow me to rephrase Pesky's statement :D

In this part we disagree because the United States... no matter what world order they talk about, they mean an American-centric world order of democracies, that is, a world that revolves around the United States democracy transparency freedom. It won't be that way any more.

, unfortunately, it goes further than the Jews, and has for some time. :/

, hmm, what other perspective is there than "from something"...? In absence of anything/everything, speaking of perspectives doesn't make much sense...

... what else, ? ;)

I doubt those among Russian top brass who are against the war can/will do much:

Carnegie · Apr 7, 2023
Bloomberg · Jun 8, 2023

If within Putin's reach, it's safer for them to play along in any case (for now at least). :death:

UN · Jul 28, 2023
POLITICO · Aug 4, 2023

Marcus Keupp seems too optimistic (to me):

watson · Oct 20, 2023 (en)

Mentioned Russian losses alone won't do it, at least not in the near future, though at some point...

Besides, with friends like Kim Jong Un, what can go wrong? :)

Al Jazeera · Sep 13, 2023
ABC · Oct 8, 2023

Nuclear posturing of late has been Russian and North Korean. The Kremlin appears to be going for a Cold War II. Incidentally, the kind of environment Putin was trained in, grew up in, knows, where he made some buddies.

To what end, though?

If Putin is willing to hit the red button over Ukraine, then the world (in general) already has a markedly larger problem (sort of masked/hidden in rhetoric). For that matter, certainly not in the best interest of Russians. On the other hand, as a promised response to a nuclear attack, it seems to work well enough. Maybe. (I'd be more worried about Kim Jong Un at the moment.)

The Putinistas have had a decade or two to think Ukraine over, when they had spare time. There are some suggestions that parts of the (current) Kremlin's moves have been prepared/strategized for a long while, despite setbacks/bumps.

Mariupol is becoming a military installation. A resort city not so much, at the moment.

a direct railway connection with Mariupol, Volnovakha and Donetsk — Petro Andriushchenko · Sep 27, 2023

Russians build rail links to Mariupol, Volnovakha and Donetsk
^{— Alona Mazurenko · Ukrainska Pravda · Sep 27, 2023}

Russians so worried about Ukrainian breakthrough on Donetsk front that they have begun to fortify occupied Mariupol
^{— The New Voice of Ukraine · Oct 12, 2023}

Ukraine’s Next Target: Russian Supply Lines
^{— Daniel Michaels · Wall Street Journal · Oct 12, 2023}

The new rail link that Russia is building to Mariupol—a Black Sea port on the land bridge—would, if successful, relieve pressure on supplies coming from Crimea, said an assistant to Mariupol’s exiled mayor, and so poses a threat to Ukrainian troops. — Daniel Michaels

I don't think the Russian Mariupol efforts are new, though. Strategic importance for them. Meanwhile, Avdiivka is keeping both parties busy.