, I was commenting on these, mostly the former (emphasis mine by the way):

The Russian forces now outnumber the Ukrainians significantly. That should tell you enough about the current balance of power. — Tzeentch

vastly larger manpower pool — Tzeentch

How many Russian and Ukrainian troops do you think there are in Ukraine at the moment?

There's that vastly again, though about firepower this time:

the Russians have vastly more firepower than the Ukrainians — Tzeentch

The Russian forces now outnumber the Ukrainians significantly. That should tell you enough about the current balance of power. — Tzeentch

vastly larger manpower pool — Tzeentch

Well, some more numbers... Russia (largest country in the world) is about 28 times the size of Ukraine, GDP is about a factor 15 (not per capita), population is about 4 times larger. Ukraine has been and is receiving a good deal of help: civil, arms. It's unclear exactly what, but, likely, Russia has been / is receiving some stuff from China, Iran, North Korea, maybe others. In terms of home production, unlike Russia, Ukraine hasn't really had that much (though they've been inventive with drones and such, including old stuff), but are reportedly working with Rheinmetall, Baykar, and others to set up Ukrainian production. Sanctions has some effects on Russia's arms production.

Anyway, I haven't seen indications that there are significantly more Russian than Ukrainian fighters in Ukraine at the moment. But the Kremlin has spent a significant amount of shells and rockets (and troops) in 17 or 18 months of warring. Reports suggest much more unity among Ukrainians (and hate towards the invaders).

↑ I think most of this stuff is repetition

The media you keep linking — Tzeentch

FMI, do you mean GlobalFirepower? ISW? FOCUS online? Another one?

Some rough estimates of troop sizes ...

Russia
Pre-invasion at border: 169,000 - 190,000 ^{military + paramilitary + 34,000 separatist militias, 4, 5}
Pre-invasion total: 900,000 military ⁶, 554,000 paramilitary ⁶
In February 2023: + 200,000 newly mobilised soldiers ⁷
In May 2023: 300,000+ active personnel in Ukraine ⁸

Ukraine
Pre-invasion total: 196,600 military ⁹, 102,000 paramilitary ⁹
July 2022 total: up to 700,000 ¹⁰

, if you have access to Wikipedia, you can check False or misleading statements by Donald Trump. It's one angle anyway.

Axe writes:

As Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Gains Momentum, Russia Is Deploying Some Of Its Last Good Reserves
^{— David Axe · Forbes · Aug 27, 2023}

There was some chatter among Russian military bloggers echoing Axe, but who knows what's going on. There have also been rumors of TOS-1A MLRS deployments and of Russian command abandoning troops around Dnipro. I guess time will (or might) tell.

Russian Neo-Nazi Paramilitary Group Issues Putin an Ultimatum: ISW ^{(also ↑ Aug 26, 2023)
— Andrew Stanton · Newsweek · Aug 27, 2023}
Rusich Group
^{— Wikipedia}

The spiraling cost of war means growing economic pain for Russia
^{— Clare Sebastian, Hanna Ziady, Anna Cooban, Tim Lister, Olesya Dmitracova · CNN · Aug 28, 2023}

Hard to tell what's going on with Capo dei capi.

In follow-up to this Aug 23, 2023 comment:

The Ukraine war, propaganda-style, is coming to Russian movie screens. Will people watch?
^{— Dasha Litvinova, Jake Coyle · AP · Aug 28, 2023}

On cue.

FYI, GlobalFirepower has various military metrics giving some indications of relative strengths/weaknesses for different countries.

Russia ranks high (worldwide) on tanks, self-propelled artillery, towed artillery, rocket projectors, and also aircraft fleet, attack aircraft, attack helicopter fleet, which is, apart from population size, pretty much what Ukraine is fighting (with help from others). However, Ukraine's helpers could probably establish air superiority relatively easily ^{(also Jul 27, 2023; Jul 24, 2023; Jul 5, 2023)}.

2023 Military Strength Ranking is an overall assessment based on 60 factors.

How do we know there is a behind us? — Darkneos

:D Might just turn around and take a look. Has this ever failed you? (Would you expect something more than that?)

Frontlines move here then there.

Ukrainian forces now appear within striking distance of the next series of prepared Russian defensive positions, which may be weaker than the previous set of Russian defenses but still pose a significant challenge. (ISW · Aug 26, 2023)

Jetzt kämpft sich die Ukraine durch den schwierigsten Teil der Front (via google translate)
^{— FOCUS online · Aug 27, 2023}

Not all of the something-industrial complex are purely evil. ;)

Are electric vehicles definitely better for the climate than gas-powered cars?
^{— Andrew Moseman, Sergey Paltsev · MIT Climate Portal · Oct 13, 2022}

Yes: although electric cars' batteries make them more carbon-intensive to manufacture than gas cars, they more than make up for it by driving much cleaner under nearly any conditions.

BMW To Construct $108 Million Battery Logistics Facility
^{— Andrew Lambrecht · InsideEVs · Aug 27, 2023}

BMW says that by 2026, a third of its vehicles sold will be fully electric.

:up:

, yeah, it's crazy. :/
The Euromaidan protests started in Nov 2013, just prior to Russia grabbing Crimea.

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, abuse of power, human rights violations,[ 91 ] and the influence of oligarchs.[ 92 ]

In Feb 2014, the Russo-Ukrainian war started, and Russia grabbed Crimea.
Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in Jul 2014.
Almost a decade of warring as of typing.
(In this context, I might use "Putin's Russia" rather than just "Russia", but that may just be me.)

What's up with that? Is he just plain lying or something?

Donald Trump’s ‘round of 67’ at Bedminster Club Championship has fans rolling on the floor laughing (Aug 27, 2023)

They'd likely have preferred US (and whatever) presence staying in Afghanistan:

Female Afghan students stopped by Taliban on way to Dubai
^{— Camilla Alcini, Somayeh Malekian · ABC · Aug 24, 2023}

:/

A bit of mass hysteria, too:

Taliban Suspend Swedish Activities in Afghanistan Over Quran
^{— Ayaz Gul · VOA · Jul 11, 2023}

In a radio interview, Danilov opines:

Russia's fragmentation has begun. In the near future, a lot of interesting things will happen there. Let's wait and see. You shouldn't touch something when it's that hot. We should wait until it cools down a bit. Then we'll understand all the events that took place. Prigozhin wasn't crazy. The people who gave him the order to march on Moscow finally stopped him. — Oleksiy Danilov (Aug 26, 2023)

I'm not convinced that someone else in particular ordered Prigozhin to initiate their "march of justice". If enough of his people complained repeatedly (and/or died), then that might have given him a nudge in that direction.

Wagner boss Prigozhin says his soldiers won’t sign contracts with Russian army
^{— Wilhelmine Preussen · POLITICO · Jun 11, 2023}
Wagner fighters are furious and vowing vengeance after their leader Prigozhin's presumed death in a plane crash
^{— Thibault Spirlet · Business Insider · Aug 24, 2023}

The first time was when I phoned him and negotiations (were taking) place while they were marching on Moscow. I told him: ‘Yevgeny, do you understand that you will doom your people and will perish yourself?’ He had just come back from the front. On an impulse he said: ‘I will die then, damn it![’] — Alexander Lukashenko (Aug 26, 2023)

The Belarusian leader said that during second time he spoke with Prigozhin he warned him “in no uncertain terms to watch it.” — Alex Stambaugh, Katharina Krebs, Heather Chen · CNN · Aug 26, 2023

I said: ‘If you are afraid of something, I will talk to President (Vladimir) Putin and we will extract you to Belarus. We guarantee full security to you in Belarus.’ And credit where credit is due, Yevgeny Prigozhin has never asked me to separately pay attention to security matters. — Alexander Lukashenko (Aug 26, 2023)

Says he "cannot imagine that Putin did it, that he is to blame" but suggests someone did, is to blame, though.

Putin orders Wagner fighters to sign oath of allegiance
^{— Andrew Osborn, Guy Faulconbridge, Kirsten Donovan · Reuters · Aug 26, 2023}

Putin's introduction of a mandatory oath for employees of Wagner and other private military contractors was a clear move to bring such groups under tighter state control. The decree, published on the Kremlin website, obliges anyone carrying out work on behalf of the military or supporting what Moscow calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine to swear a formal oath of allegiance to Russia. Described in the decree as a step to forge the spiritual and moral foundations of the defence of Russia, the wording of the oath includes a line in which those who take it promise to strictly follow the orders of commanders and senior leaders.
[...]
Russia's Baza news outlet, which has good sources among law enforcement agencies, has reported that investigators are focusing on a theory that one or two bombs may have been planted on board the plane.

Prigozhin and Utkin (+ 8 more) down, Surovikin out of commission, Zhidko gone by the way — actors in a gangsterdom writ large.

WATCH: People lay flowers for Wagner founder Prigozhin outside HQ in St Petersburg
^{— Euronews · Aug 24, 2023 · 1m}



Prigozhin plane crash: What's next after Wagner Group leader's apparent demise?
^{— Shannon K Crawford · ABC · Aug 25, 2023}

Maybe Putin will try to install a trusted ruthless gangster somehow. As long as they can get fighting and money going.

*hah* I have a feeling this will p¡ss off the Kremlin, and I haven't seen the trailer. :D
"CIA Propaganda!" "Hollywood Lies!"
Then the crew might be sanctioned, it'll be banned anywhere within Putin's reach (except he'll watch it), and he'll tell the FSB to look for someone to create a "counter-movie".

Sean Penn's Ukraine documentary 'Superpower' premieres at Berlin International Film Festival
^{— Mark Armstrong, AP · Euronews · Feb 18, 2023}
Sean Penn's 'Immersive' Ukraine War Documentary Previewed in New Trailer
^{— Kimberlee Speakman · People · Aug 23, 2023}
Superpower (2023)
^{— IMDb}

, these two sentences have a kind of...similarity to them... :)

• Prigozhin died in plane crash
• Putin had Prigozhin killed

Destroy this, destroy that:

This night alone, the export capacity of the port of Izmail was reduced by 15%. Russia is systematically hitting grain silos and warehouses to stop agricultural exports. In total, 270,000 tonnes of grain have been destroyed in a month of attacks on ports. — Oleksandr Kubrakov · Reuters · Aug 23, 2023

Four educational workers were killed and four other people were hurt in a Russian attack on a school in the city of Romny in northeastern Ukraine on Wednesday, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.
“The school building was destroyed, and this is just before the school year, which unfortunately will never start for some,” Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Telegram. — Reuters via Al Arabiya · Aug 23, 2023

Yet, the same old self-victimizing crud:

Russia wants to end war unleashed by West in Ukraine: Vladimir Putin at BRICS
^{— Sahil Sinha · India Today · Aug 23, 2023}

↑ Script got old some time ago. Give it up already.

Opinion: Russia’s neighbors have a message for Putin
^{— Frida Ghitis · CNN · Aug 23, 2023}

Latvia’s bravado is made possible by the safety of belonging to NATO. [...] As in Estonia, Russia’s 21^st century assault on Ukraine brought echoes of Russia’s 20^th century subjugation of Latvia. [...] When I asked her [Galina Domenikovska (53)] about former President Donald Trump, she winced, and told me she is afraid he will come back to office.

Some share Domenikovska's concern. :)

Poland’s leader says Russia’s moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, shifting regional security
^{— AP · Aug 22, 2023}

Russia said it would maintain control over those it sends to Belarus.

More or less Russian forward bases in Belarus. As someone has noted, the Kremlin is confident that Lukashenko will maintain power/grip for the foreseeable future. (*psst* now is a cool time for Belarus to swiftly oust Lukashenko :wink:)

Would the Kremlin be capable of handling a free Belarus while warring on Ukraine?

If the Belarusians were determined, I have some doubts they could maintain "two fronts", but they'd surely try/intervene and their confidence suggests they're deeply embedded in Belarusian power structures already.

‘Silence is killing me:’ A firefighter on Ukraine’s frontlines yearns to be back at work
^{— Kostyantin Gak, Nick Paton Walsh, Brice Laine · CNN · Aug 22, 2023}

I agree there are normal adequate people anywhere, on each side. But I will hate them until the end of my life. — Dima

More of that hate :/

, that's roughly the story of John Chau in 2018, just not Africa but the Sentinelese. So, not hypothetical.

I suppose you can't doubt that something exists.
Not exactly informative, though, hardly a fantastic epistemic discovery/development or grand philosophical innovation.

Can you doubt that this is English?
Not really, which is a bit more informative.
I suppose, however unlikely, that an alien could happen to find it a description of a comet they're in the vicinity of, not knowing English in the first place.

This: Thoughts therefore exist. (← A more accurate version of cogito ergo sum.)

Would it not be a matter of who voters vote for?
That's assuming voters are most of "the people".
Of course voters can be poorly or well informed or be invested in some way, and candidates have varying resources for campaigning, and resourceful haters can launch smearing campaigns, etc, which can muddle things up.
Yet, suppose a majority decides to vote for Jane Doe 'cuz she cool (like the best of Jefferson, Lincoln, JFK, Carter), or something.
Jane Doe is among "the people" and voters, not somehow apart or isolated therefrom.
Barring something odd, Jane Doe would then become president, and could push those cool things, because the voters picked her and employed her to make it so.
In principle at least, voters decide, so that's where such powers lie, and where efforts could be directed?
Government leadership (like Jane Doe) has the responsibility of doing the (cool) things they said they'd do, right?

Increasing wildfires are likely partially + cumulatively caused by climate change, and are bound to have a climatic effect in turn.

As the wildfires in Canada continue to shroud much of the midwest in a thick haze of smoke, New Yorkers are preparing yet again for the smoke to make its way further east. — The Guardian · Jun 27, 2023

Based on data from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, there are 480 active fires in Canada: 252 are out of control, 77 are being held in place, and 151 are under control. — GPS World · Jun 28, 2023

Smoke from Canadian wildfires has reached Europe — Euronews · Jun 28, 2023

Data also shows that Canada has experienced 11,598 fires during the first seven months of this year alone. This is a 705% increase compared to fires detected over the same period of the previous six years. Canada is currently battling the country’s worst wildfire season on record, with more than 10 million ha of land burned, which is said to increase in the coming weeks. — GPS World · Aug 4, 2023

Lots of :fire: this year. Will this become a new norm of sorts?

Copernicus EFFIS (interactive)
NASA FIRMS (interactive)

In continuation from an Aug 17, 2023 comment...

Bulgarian minister: 'We cannot rule out' clash between NATO, Russia in Black Sea
^{— Martin Fornusek · The Kyiv Independent · Aug 18, 2023}

We cannot rule out such an option. We are working to prevent it. Russia constantly provokes NATO. — Todor Tagarev

... Sea, ground (e.g. Wagner), air, public statements.

:/

Just another day in Ukraine.

Seven dead including six-year-old girl as Russian missile hits center of Ukraine’s Chernihiv city
^{— Maria Kostenko, Sarah Dean, Sophie Tanno · CNN · Aug 19, 2023}

A Russian missile hit right in the center of the city, in our Chernihiv. A square, the polytechnic university, a theater. — Zelenskyy

Ukrainian air force reportedly shot down 15 of 17 Iranian-made Shahed drones overnight. ("sitting ducks with some repellent")

Not military target.
Plain intimidation (however deadly)? Spite?
One target-picking method has been reported before: Jun 28, 2023.


(nah, don't expect insurance to cover the damaged cars :grin:)

@NOS4A2

Some have suggested going more or less in the opposite direction than what you suggest.
That's assuming you suggest no state, government, taxes, all that, which I might have misunderstood.
For example, in order to deal with climate change, pollution, environmental concerns, etc, worldwide cooperation (or policing) of some sort might be needed.
Then again, I'm not quite sure what your idea is (apart from some things you seemingly detest).

By the way, individuals may live, say, 100 years (optimistically); outside of that, it's not really meaningful to speak of them (me) reaping the fruit of their (my) labor, or ownership of anything.
Subsequent generations may however "reap the fruit" of climate change, pollution, etc.
Would such concerns be irrelevant in the name of radical individualism (anarchy of sorts)?

2,001 respondents throughout non-occupied Ukraine aged 18 or older took part in the survey

Analytical report based on the results of WAR, PEACE, VICTORY, AND FUTURE SURVEY
^{— OPORA · Jul 27, 2023}

78% of Ukrainians share the idea that all Russians are accountable for the aggression against Ukraine :/ (bad, and differs from how Zelenskyy has pointed at Putin + team explicitly — growing hate)

70% of Ukrainians consider it crucial for all the territories to be liberated from the enemy to call it a victory in the war

57% of Ukrainians want to punish everyone who was directly involved in planning, approving, arranging, and committing the war crimes

68% of Ukrainians think that the prosecution and punishment of the criminals should be subject to the national and international laws

95% of Ukrainians expect that the state will insist on Russia compensating for the losses caused during the war

40% of Ukrainians believe that reparations will actually be paid (that seems optimistic, yet many Ukrainians are optimistic in other questions as well)

Drennan opines:

Only one thing will bring Putin to ceasefire: Crimea
^{— Patrick Drennan · The Hill · Aug 17, 2023}

At least a fairly straightforward account of what's been going on.
Worth adding that Stalin (in office 1922-1952) paved the way rather effectively by replacing locals with Russians in Crimea (called ethnic genocide/cleansing by some). ^{1, 2, 3, 4}
Incidentally, Mearsheimer and Drennan agree that Crimea is important to Putin.

:) (where's that photo from anyway?)

Conversely, Ukraine had (and has) international and domestic monitors. I guess that would end if they were to be assimilated by Russia.

Russia opens a criminal investigation into a leader of a prominent election watchdog
^{— AP · Aug 17, 2023}

Nothing new I guess, "foreign agent" and "undesirable" have become go-to's for doing away with transparency and opposition. Regress. They're a democracy-monitor, how dangerous can they be?

Intensive military preparations are underway in the West; enormous sums of money are being invested in this. It is necessary to understand that, in the capitalist world, nobody will tie their assets up in [long-term investments in costly] weaponry and in beefing up the ranks of the army for nothing. So, one can make an unambiguous conclusion: The possibility of a direct military clash with NATO in the future is becoming more and more evident. — Viktor Khrenin · TASS · Aug 15, 2023

Well, considerable resources have gone to Ukraine. Weaponry production has been up'd here and there due to supplying Ukraine. (The providers haven't particularly moved toward wartime-alike economy.) Various democracies, the UN, and NATO officials have condemned the invasion and taken steps to help the defender.

It is no accident that the Republic of Belarus is considering returning tactical nuclear weapons to its soil as a potent element of strategic containment. — Viktor Khrenin · TASS · Aug 15, 2023

"A direct military clash" with Ukraine was already initiated by the Kremlin, which has consequences. :shrug: The Kremlin and Minsk are hardly the victims here. Should Belarus become a genuine democracy, where political opposition wouldn't have to be in exile, the situation would likely be different.

The sanctions announced today are in addition to sanctions previously imposed on 13 Belarusian individuals and entities, including Belarusian Minister of Defence Viktor Khrenin, who have played a role of significant strategic importance to Russia by allowing Russia to launch attacks from Belarus.
The Belarusian Government allowed Russian military forces to train in their country for weeks ahead of the invasion. Since then, it has allowed Russia to fire ballistic missiles from Belarus into Ukraine, enabled the transport of Russian military personnel, heavy weapons and tanks into Ukraine, provided refuelling points in Belarus for Russian military aircraft and stored Russian weapons and military equipment. — Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs · Mar 25, 2022

any aggression against Russia's neighbour and close ally Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia — Putin (paraphrased) · Reuters · Jul 22, 2023

Much emanates from the invasion; ironically, Putin's Russia has breathed some life into NATO. I suppose NATO and Russia/Belarus could still "clash" due to the invasion of Ukraine despite much tiptoeing. (And an attack on Poland Finland Lithuania Romania would be a "clash", for example.)

They're all right. Discuss the lot, too.

The sham referendums were engineered in Moscow. And imposed on Ukraine. In total violation of international law. This land grab is illegal and illegitimate. — Jens Stoltenberg (Sep 30, 2022)

I think that a solution could be for Ukraine to give up territory, and get NATO membership in return. It is important that we discuss this. It must be up to Ukraine to decide when and on what terms they want to negotiate. I'm not saying it has to be like this. But that could be a possible solution. — Stian Jenssen (Aug 15, 2023)

Trading territory for a NATO umbrella? It is ridiculous. That means deliberately choosing the defeat of democracy, encouraging a global criminal, preserving the Russian regime, destroying international law, and passing the war on to other generations. After all, why should Russia voluntarily abandon provocations, hybrids, and traditional behavior without losing? Obviously, if Putin does not suffer a crushing defeat, the political regime in Russia does not change, and war criminals are not punished, the war will definitely return with Russia's appetite for more. Attempts to preserve the world order and establish a "bad peace" through, let's be honest, Putin's triumph will not bring peace to the world, but will bring both dishonour and war. This applies to any format of a new "division of Europe": including under the NATO umbrella. Then why propose the scenario of a freeze, so desired by Russia, instead of speeding up the supply of weapons? Murderers should not be encouraged by appalling indulgences... — Mykhailo Podolyak (Aug 15, 2023)

, there are reasons for suspicion of involvement. Seems unlikely that the coup-doers would hail far-away Putin and wave Russian flags like so, out of the blue. Hating on the French is more expected; "smaller rebels" loathing "larger powers" is trendy, regardless of what the latter may or may not be doing (even if attempting to democratize), you can always find something. Or come to the aid of the former. That being said, should material evidence come to light that incriminates the Kremlin, I doubt it'll make much difference, they'll make something up or won't care. Most likely by proxies anyway.

, yeah, there are some effects: Russia’s central bank raises interest rates to 12% after the ruble plunges (Anna Cooban, Vasco Cotovio · CNN · Aug 15, 2023). I'm wondering how it's felt on the streets.

, there was briefly some speculation about Russia in that respect, but nothing further has surfaced (that I know of).

Bit of a contrast in terms of Russia here:

Niger coup (reports from Jul 31, 2023): CNN, Forbes (Russian flags)
Georgian protests (reports from Aug 1, 2023): BBC, Business Insider (simmering Kremlin-hate)

Maybe they should get together? :D

Anyway, while going over all this...stuff, I sure hope Putin hasn't had more warring in mind all along. — Aug 2, 2023

Russian flags, "Vive Putin", etc, in the middle of Africa? (contrasting Georgia) Hmm... :chin: Wagner is present ^{(Jul 6, 2023 ← check photos)}, there are well-known links, but no further material evidence (that I know of). Then Putin himself to the rescue:

Putin stresses need for ‘peaceful resolution’ in Niger coup in call with Mali leader
^{— Jessie Gretener, Uliana Pavlova, Duarte Mendonca, Larry Madowo, Vasco Cotovio · CNN · Aug 15, 2023}

By the way, some earlier get-togethers with African leaders didn't go quite as he may have preferred ^{(Jun 18, 2023; Jul 27, 2023)}.

, apologies, will try being more "fleshy". :) (After a while this stuff got so repetitive.) By the way, it was a response to this comment, but would be more appropriate in this thread. Maybe I'll move/take it up over there (again).

, the Mossad, the Israelis, they really blundered, eh? :D

^{• Russia’s Eliminationist Rhetoric Against Ukraine: A Collection
• Nov 21, 2022}

↪RogueAI Have you ever thought of joining the Azov Nazis? — Jack Rogozhin

Those people that went to Israel for an official get-together? Mossad must have blundered royally. (incidentally Aug 2, 2023) The Nazi thing is straight out of Putinist newspeak. No, Ukraine ain't ruled by a Nazi regime as they propagandize. Old. You know, answering a question with a question like so is kind of rude (deflection, dodging).

I'm not. — Jack Rogozhin

Yeah, you are. Just about verbatim.

Why are you a Russophobe? — Jack Rogozhin

I'm not. So, bare racism accusation. Tu quoque style at that.

but indicative of a Russophobia that our media and the Democrats (and many Republicans) have fomented in the last six years — Jack Rogozhin

Why are you parroting Putinist propaganda? :roll:

Putin has managed to create much hate ^{(May 26, 2023; Aug 1, 2023)} etc, not the least in Ukraine ^{(Aug 9, 2023)}. FYI, it's come up a few times before.

Confusing Russophobia and anti-authoritarianism/anti-Putinism verges on accusing everyone of racism.