, yeah, there are some effects: Russia’s central bank raises interest rates to 12% after the ruble plunges (Anna Cooban, Vasco Cotovio · CNN · Aug 15, 2023). I'm wondering how it's felt on the streets.

, there was briefly some speculation about Russia in that respect, but nothing further has surfaced (that I know of).

Bit of a contrast in terms of Russia here:

Niger coup (reports from Jul 31, 2023): CNN, Forbes (Russian flags)
Georgian protests (reports from Aug 1, 2023): BBC, Business Insider (simmering Kremlin-hate)

Maybe they should get together? :D

Anyway, while going over all this...stuff, I sure hope Putin hasn't had more warring in mind all along. — Aug 2, 2023

Russian flags, "Vive Putin", etc, in the middle of Africa? (contrasting Georgia) Hmm... :chin: Wagner is present ^{(Jul 6, 2023 ← check photos)}, there are well-known links, but no further material evidence (that I know of). Then Putin himself to the rescue:

Putin stresses need for ‘peaceful resolution’ in Niger coup in call with Mali leader
^{— Jessie Gretener, Uliana Pavlova, Duarte Mendonca, Larry Madowo, Vasco Cotovio · CNN · Aug 15, 2023}

By the way, some earlier get-togethers with African leaders didn't go quite as he may have preferred ^{(Jun 18, 2023; Jul 27, 2023)}.

, apologies, will try being more "fleshy". :) (After a while this stuff got so repetitive.) By the way, it was a response to this comment, but would be more appropriate in this thread. Maybe I'll move/take it up over there (again).

, the Mossad, the Israelis, they really blundered, eh? :D

^{• Russia’s Eliminationist Rhetoric Against Ukraine: A Collection
• Nov 21, 2022}

↪RogueAI Have you ever thought of joining the Azov Nazis? — Jack Rogozhin

Those people that went to Israel for an official get-together? Mossad must have blundered royally. (incidentally Aug 2, 2023) The Nazi thing is straight out of Putinist newspeak. No, Ukraine ain't ruled by a Nazi regime as they propagandize. Old. You know, answering a question with a question like so is kind of rude (deflection, dodging).

I'm not. — Jack Rogozhin

Yeah, you are. Just about verbatim.

Why are you a Russophobe? — Jack Rogozhin

I'm not. So, bare racism accusation. Tu quoque style at that.

but indicative of a Russophobia that our media and the Democrats (and many Republicans) have fomented in the last six years — Jack Rogozhin

Why are you parroting Putinist propaganda? :roll:

Putin has managed to create much hate ^{(May 26, 2023; Aug 1, 2023)} etc, not the least in Ukraine ^{(Aug 9, 2023)}. FYI, it's come up a few times before.

Confusing Russophobia and anti-authoritarianism/anti-Putinism verges on accusing everyone of racism.

I'll take the tedious task of ruling with an iron fist. — Nov 30, 2022

Well, maybe democracy and all that isn't worth putting up a fight for? (Such a sentiment would certainly please dictators, theocrats, and such, [...] — Jul 8, 2023

Yeh, it is.

In general, there's much to be said about democracy of course: technicalities, implementation, practicalities, ... A large topic in its own right. ^{(Nov 4, 2013; Feb 19, 2020)}

The Economist Democracy Index might be the most common of this sort of thing, and uses a handful of categories to assess a society's status. Others use different methods. Most (that I know of) differentiate autocracy—anocracy—democracy on some weighted scale / to varying degrees. Some societies haven't changed much over time, some have seen a sudden regress (← direction), some have moved slowly (e.g. → direction), etc. Anyway, various renditions/reports taken together can give an impression of what's (been) going on around the world:

Democracy
^{— Bastian Herre, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Max Roser · Our World in Data · 2013-}
The animated map that explains the world
^{— Zack Beauchamp · Vox · Apr 22, 2014}
Forms of Government, 2018
^{— National Geographic}
Despite global concerns about democracy, more than half of countries are democratic
^{— Drew DeSilver · Pew Research Center · May 14, 2019}
The Shifting Global Balance of Autocracy and Democracy
^{— Thomas Carothers, Saskia Brechenmacher, Staffan I Lindberg, Carnegie · Apr 8, 2022 · 56m:19s}
Mapped: The State of Global Democracy in 2022
^{— Raul Amoros, Nick Routley, Sabrina Fortin · Visual Capitalist · May 13, 2022}
The State of Democracy
^{— Martin Armstrong · Statista · Feb 17, 2023}
Mapped: The State of Democracy Around the World
^{— Avery Koop, Joyce Ma · Visual Capitalist · Apr 24, 2023}

For recent years and perhaps for some time to come, I'm expecting a drop (further), if mapped out later. (Check the African situation (thanks @ssu); Russia (apropos); Ukraine (apropos; Jul 23, 2023); Afghanistan (Dec 20, 2022; Aug 14, 2023); maybe Ecuador (sort of peripheral in this context); ...)

So, what the heck is the deal?

What, if anything, should be done?

Ukraine desperate for help clearing mines, says defence minister
^{— Daniel Boffey · The Guardian · Aug 13, 2023}

... Great lengths gone to install then remove mines. Seems almost absurd.

:

Source: Sirena Telegram channel, referring to the video message of Alexander Dudka, the so-called head of the village

And (as they incidentally point out) it's not the first such report.

Aug 4, 2023

( :grin: Ghosts ... Nov 18, 2022 )

Kherson is Crimea's northern neighbor.

Russians stop providing insulin to civilians without Russian citizenship in occupied village in Kherson Oblast
^{— Tetiana Lozovenko · Ukrainska Pravda · Aug 11, 2023}

Destabilize/insurrect, propaganda efforts, invade, bomb, threaten, reenculturation efforts, sham votes, annex, force citizenship, landgrab, ... Imperialism, enlarging the world's largest country.

Maybe it's worthwhile making explicit why more people leave/defect Putin's Russia, than the other way.

BBC News Russian: Russian officer flees to Lithuania and requests political asylum
^{— Meduza, BBC · Aug 11, 2023}

Mar 22, 2023; Jun 23, 2023

Some give their reasons, though they may just try to appease authorities at their destination, or not.

I suppose some overall/unspecific categories/reasons could be freedoms, justice systems, living standards, politics, regress, oppression, fear, ... Seems less likely that some would do so to spy for Putin's Russia or sabotage their destination, though it has happened in cases where, say, a ragtag group of refugees arrives at a border post.

Leaving/defecting/fleeing (either way) takes resources/resourcefulness that not everyone has, and of course it takes motivation/rationale.

US government sanctions Russians on the board of Alfa Group in response to war in Ukraine
^{— AP · Aug 11, 2023}

Wealthy Russian elites should disabuse themselves of the notion that they can operate business as usual while the Kremlin wages war against the Ukrainian people. Our international coalition will continue to hold accountable those enabling the unjustified and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. — Wally Adeyemo

4 billionaires (Aven, Fridman, Khan, Kuzmichev) further restricted. Businesses of Putinistas curtailed. Un/fair?

6 Western nations demand Russia return two regions it took from neighboring Georgia 15 years ago
^{— Edith M Lederer · AP · Aug 10, 2023}

A fifth of Georgia, a fifth of Ukraine (at the moment), ..., enlarging the world's largest country.

Dmitry Polyanskiy · Aug 10, 2023 (notice the X :grin:)

A couple or so continents Russophobic? :brow: Putinistaphobic, maybe, and not democracyphobic. Putin has managed to create much hate ^{(May 26, 2023; Aug 1, 2023)}, not the least in Ukraine. Sacrificed? The Ukrainians want to join the EU, were and are asking for help in repelling the invaders, etc. They said "No", and the UN concurs. Polyansky is repeating the scripted partyline, give it up already, "alternate world" type bullshit ^{(Mar 4, 2023; Jun 16, 2023; Jul 11, 2023; Jul 28, 2023)}.

FYI, old interview, journalist on the ground, diplomat in New York:

There is no ‘war’ in Ukraine, claims Russia’s deputy ambassador to the UN
^{— Krishnan Guru-Murthy · Channel 4 · Mar 29, 2022 · 13m:20s}



Re nukery: Oct 16, 2022 (e.g. @Jack Rogozhin)

Russia and Ukraine trade aerial attacks as Zelenskyy makes another move against corruption
^{— Samya Kullab, Illia Novikov, Emma Burrows · AP · Aug 11, 2023}

I'm not sure "trade" expresses how generous Russia has been. At least Ukraine has received some good air defense from others, though "sitting ducks with some repellent" is a precarious situation.


^{↑ Svitlana volunteers (Efrem Lukatsky · AP · Aug 11, 2023); is that an AK-47?}

, as mentioned, repeats, including regress/progress. :/ Yes, that's a fallacy :D (the linked one, this is a philosophy forum).

Hmm Getting into repeats. :/

They almost all do, or at least act as if they have that right. Look what's going on in Niger; France and USA are threatening and terrorizing it as if its their country. The US currently has bases there and in Syria, which they bombed as if it was their territory, and are stealing their oil. They did it to Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan, too, and with the NATO--a supposedly defensive alliance's--help. They bombed Yugoslavia and cut Kosovo out of it with no respect for those borders at all. — Jack Rogozhin

France has miltary bases in Niger the country wants out, they have half their financial reserves in their bank, and they are crossing into Niger's airspace. That is imperialism and disrespect of borders, period. Anyone OK with that has no place complaining about Russia — Jack Rogozhin

↑ This would be a common fallacy.

It's been a while since Crimea was a part of Russia. It's been a legitimate part of Ukraine for a while. In 2014 Putin's Russia launched the land-grab. The UN concurs. "Period" (to use your word). But of course human rights should be respected in Crimea. And in Russia, Belarus, etc. Ukraine has to fulfill this and a few other things to be accepted into the EU. From memory, Ukraine has to be a transparent democracy to be accepted by NATO. Putin's Russia has regressed, Ukraine has progressed some (barring PTSD). Putin's supposed NATO-phobia has also been discussed (not sure I'm up to digging it all out).

Russia rightly doesn't consider Crimea taken land — Jack Rogozhin

Probably not that simple, and rightly isn't quite right. :)
But you're right that Crimea has had an increasing population of Russians.
Whether Khrushchev was wrong or not ^{("was carried out in accordance with the 1936 Soviet constitution")}, the previous ethnic cleansing was wrong.

Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago?
^{— Mark Kramer · Wilson Center · Mar 23, 2014}
Shifting Loyalty: Moscow Accused Of Reshaping Annexed Crimea's Demographics
^{— Rostyslav Khotin, Rostyslav Khotin, Robert Coalson · RFE/RL · May 31, 2018}
Five years after Crimea’s illegal annexation, the issue is no closer to resolution
^{— Steven Pifer · Brookings · Mar 18, 2019}
Myth 12: ‘Crimea was always Russian’
^{— Orysia Lutsevych · Chatham House · May 13, 2021}

Stories from Zaporizhia:

‘We expected less resistance’: Ukrainian troops on southern front learn not to underestimate their enemy
^{— Nick Paton Walsh, Kosta Gak, Olha Konovalova, Florence Davey-Attlee, Brice Laine · CNN · Aug 9, 2023}

Hatred is very strong. — Julia (frontline medic)

:/

Russia has made clear only the Donbas is not on the table — Jack Rogozhin

Crimea?

Ough. Disgusting. What the heck is going on in Florida?

Videos denying climate science approved by Florida as state curriculum
^{— Oliver Milman · The Guardian · Aug 10, 2023}

PragerU...? Haven't watched this particular propaganda of theirs; might just be a waste of time.

, no, it wouldn't be stabilizing, and Putin presumably knows. (Not sure why you keep writing that.)

_{(You know how in certain subcultures there are certain things that cannot be said suggested questioned?)}

Impressive, sinister, disgusting:

Russia’s latest effort to sway young minds: High-school textbooks praising the conflict in Ukraine
^{— Ivana Kottasová, Uliana Pavlova · CNN · Aug 9, 2023}

As per Sergey Kravtsov:

Of course, we will supplement the textbook as soon as we win. As I said, we are already winning the information war, but the special military operation will end, and end with our victory, and, of course, we will supplement the history textbook. — RIA Novosti · Jun 23, 2023

The textbook on the history of Russia for the 11th grade reflects the causes and course of the special military operation, the reunification of the Crimea and Sevastopol with Russia, as well as the entry of new regions into the Russian Federation. — TASS · Aug 7, 2023

There’s been an increase in school indoctrination efforts through textbooks, the content of the curriculum and extracurricular activities in Russia from 2014 onwards. — Katerina Tertytchnaya

The state has everything on its side, it has money, it has bodies, it has the stick of being able to jail parents who oppose what’s happening in schools, it has the stick of being able to keep teachers quiet – but these opposition groups have none of that and therefore everything they do is a drop in the water against this great behemoth of conspiracy theories and nationalism. — Ian Garner

Putin consolidated powers and put Russia on a non-peace trajectory. Goes hand-in-hand with the reenculturation efforts that have come up in the thread. I'm guessing it'll work, at least to an extent, perhaps depending on what others do.
_{"War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength."}

, turning it into a nuclear war wouldn't stabilize anything, it'd be like a defcon 2 or 1 escalation (sort of, to use old verbiage).
I'm assuming the Kremlin knows, but might be wrong I suppose.
Or, do you think Putin is that spiteful (and mad)?
He'd jeopardize lots more than himself, and has been told so by more than one party on more than one occasion.
(For that matter, there's a chance it could lead to unrest within Russia.)
At times, Putin comes through as meticulously calculating.
Incidentally, in this respect, I'd be more worried about Kim Jong Un.

...

incentives and disincentives — unenlightened

... is a good place to start, wouldn't you say?

, losing out in Ukraine wouldn't destroy Russia, though it might be detrimental to Putin. Starting a nuclear war on the other hand...

Chellaney opines impatience:

Biden’s Ukraine strategy is failing
^{— Brahma Chellaney · The Hill · Aug 8, 2023}

Organise or fight? Three years in exile, Belarus opposition divided about path
^{— Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska, Mike Collett-White, Peter Graff · Reuters · Aug 8, 2023}

Without foreign support, would Ukraine take a Belarusian turn? Apart from assimilation, that might be ideal for Putin. At the moment, it seems some ways off. But some steps roughly in that direction have been taken.

as Russia could and likely would respond with nuclear weapons ... exactly why the policy has been to drip feed Ukraine weapons in a progressive and controlled manner that Russia can deal with without panicking (aka. win) — boethius

Why likely would? It would seem rather spiteful, certainly not good for Russia(ns). Making it a nuclear war over a fifth of Ukraine (or however much would be left) suggests that the world (not just that area) has a markedly larger problem with the Kremlin, something in need of attention now (politically, tactically/strategically, militarily).

The get-together apparently reflected the UN.

Ukraine calls Jeddah talks productive, Russia calls them doomed
^{— Pavel Polityuk, Hatem Maher, Angus McDowall, Barbara Lewis · Reuters · Aug 6, 2023}

We had very productive consultations on the key principles on which a just and lasting peace should be built. — Andriy Yermak

West’s efforts to make global South support Kiev's plan doomed to failure — diplomat
^{— TASS · Aug 6, 2023}

[The meeting in Jeddah is] a reflection of the West's attempt to continue futile, doomed to failure efforts to mobilize the international community, or more precisely, the global South, even if not entirely, to support the so-called Zelensky formula, which is doomed and unworkable from the outset. — Sergey Ryabkov

Kyiv doesn't want to talk with Putin (and repeats the UN). The Kremlin doesn't want to talk, just repeat demands. Doesn't look encouraging as far as talks are concerned.

Attempting to figure out China's stance towards Russia isn't the easiest. Various experts have various takes. (Shen Dingli goes as far as saying Russia will lose out in Ukraine by the way.) China's activities continue to suggest walking a cautious line that could go this or that way at a moment's notice.

Xi weighs up support for Putin after rebellion
^{— Amy Hawkins · The Guardian · Jun 26, 2023}
China unlikely to be worried by ‘weaker Putin’ post Wagner revolt
^{— Erin Hale · Al Jazeera · Jun 29, 2023}
Analysis-China's Ukraine peace talks gambit shows shifts amid hard realities
^{— Laurie Chen, Martin Quin Pollard, Greg Torode, William Mallard · Reuters · Aug 5, 2023}

Perceived common adversaries seem the main driver. After that, who knows. A Russian dependency on (or debt to) China could still be a factor. Pseudo-commitment?

What to expect from China these days in this respect?


Russia Invades Ukraine: A Timeline of the Crisis
^{— Madeline Fitzgerald, Elliott Davis Jr · US News · Jul 25, 2023}

Looks like Bayer agrees with @boethius, sort of, in a way, partially...

It's time for Zelensky to get tough with Biden - opinion
^{— Alexei Bayer · The Jerusalem Post · Aug 6, 2023}

Bayer suggests an opportunist angle/pressure, though it may not be quite that simple. There are all kinds of discussions back-and-forth, not just Biden making a phonecall and that's that. Maybe old Joe wouldn't take it that well either, who knows.

You might get it your way @Isaac:

Most say Congress should not authorize more funding for Ukraine: survey
^{— Julia Shapero · The Hill · Aug 4, 2023}

At least as far as US Republicans (and the Kremlin) are concerned.

Putin's Russia demonstrably instigates lengthy destabilization and land-grabbing campaigns. By assimilating a fifth of Ukraine, those folk ^{(Aug 2, 2023, Aug 4, 2023)} are auto-enrolled in such efforts.

910 of 58,000 Belarusian citizens, and 254 of 16,000 Russian citizens, were given a month to leave Lithuania or can appeal the decision in court:

Lithuania declares more than 1,000 Belarusians and Russians to be national security risks
^{— Liudas Dapkus, Yuras Karmanau · AP · Aug 4, 2023}

Lithuania borders Latvia (close ally), Belarus, Poland, Kaliningrad (Russian). Lithuania and Poland ramp up security with respect to Russia and Belarus.

The border/country-free world won't happen this year, @Isaac. I suppose Schengen was one small move in that direction. With leaders like the current Kremlin around, it seems less likely to form.

Forced Passportization in Russia-Occupied Areas of Ukraine
^{— Yale Humanitarian Research Lab · Aug 2, 2023}

Second, Russia’s occupation officials have imposed de facto restrictions on those without Russian citizenship that make it impossible to live in Russia-occupied areas without accepting a passport. These include denial of medical services, social benefits, the ability to drive and to work, and overt threats of violence and intimidation.
These efforts create a series of ultimatums for residents of occupied areas of Ukraine who did not choose to move to Russia, but rather saw Russia impose its control on them. The incrementally added restrictions on residents without Russian citizenship make it increasingly difficult for them to meet basic needs for, among other things, shelter, food, employment, and medicine. — Executive Summary

The Yale link above lists some of the Kremlin's law moves. Incidentally, straightforward land-grabbing citizen-converting imperialism. And sham.

Law Adopted that will Detain or Deport Residents Without Russian Passports
Starting July 2024, residents without Russian citizenship will be considered “foreigners” or “stateless”
Presidential Decree № 307 — Apr 27, 2023

2022 annexation referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine
^{— Wikipedia}

, at least the greenery can't complain about CO₂ levels.

Being among generations where future generations say "They knew, and didn't do anything" isn't the best legacy...

...
Accident? (случайно) Incompetence? Not knowing there's a bit of tension at the moment?
Provocation? Russians have done some of that lately anyway.
Probing? Testing? If so, then they got some responses (though no Polish/NATO air appearance).

Who knows; I'm not sure it's easy to determine.

There have been some activities to do with Poland. Targeted by the Kremlin: exposed, made public (embarrassment?), crɘeǝpy crap, what's next?

Attacking Poland directly involves NATO directly; I doubt they'd want that (despite the tiptoeing around them).

, nah, we = voters

, well, personally, I've been increasingly worried about the environment since ehh the 1980s I think. :) (paralyzing panic doesn't help though)

, right.

By the way, if mercenaries (not a national army) attack Poland in some way, can NATO then identify a nation to hold accountable? I guess so.

Wagner Attack On Poland Will Be Treated As Russian Attack On NATO: US Ambassador To UN
^{— Parth Satam · The EurAsian Times · Aug 1, 2023}

Well, if they were deployed from Belarus (who hasn't exactly kept their presence/status a secret)...

Apart from spying and destabilization and such efforts, it seems unlikely that Belarus (or Russia) would attack Poland.

I suppose that's one way to snag up cannon fodder:

Russia is forcing Ukrainians from occupied Crimea and Donbas to fight in its invasion of Ukraine
^{— Halya Coynash · Human Rights in Ukraine · Mar 7, 2022}
Russia turns to Donbas conscripts to fill front lines
^{— Polina Ivanova · Financial Times · Jun 11, 2022}
Russia Pressing Men In Occupied Areas Of Ukraine Into Fight Against Ukrainian Forces
^{— RFE/RL · Sep 26, 2022}
Russia "officially" annexes Donbas on Sep 30, 2022
^{— Wikipedia}
Russia engaged in extensive effort to force Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories to accept Russian citizenship, report says
^{— Jennifer Hansler · CNN · Aug 2, 2023}

Furthermore, unfortunate people are trapped between Russian and Ukrainian law:

Russia forced them to fight. Ukraine tried them for treason
^{— Kateryna Farbar · openDemocracy · Nov 16, 2022}

I'm guessing (conjecture on my part) that Ukraine / Ukrainian law is more amenable to un-trap those people. Ukraine also has an interest in acceptance into organizations that would look favorable on such amendments. Maybe the resident legal experts know something?

Poland busts another Russian spy network, this time around unveiling plans to attack Ukraine-bound trains. Lukashenko + Putin "mention" that Wagner would like to hit Poland (on more than one occasion). Wagner mercs train close to Polish border; Poland + Baltics nervous. Poland enacts controversial law to deal with Russian influence. Belarusian choppers enter Poland airspace. Russia posts about Poland taking over Western Ukraine. EU ready to close Belarus borders.

There's more to the story of course, yet seems to follow an old playbook.

Nyberg writes up some political history:

Russia, Ukraine, and Poland: The End of a Tragic Triangle
^{— René Nyberg · Carnegie · Jul 28, 2023}

(... also check the crɘeǝpy TASS post above)

Bit of a contrast in terms of Russia here:

Niger coup (reports from Jul 31, 2023): CNN, Forbes (Russian flags)
Georgian protests (reports from Aug 1, 2023): BBC, Business Insider (simmering Kremlin-hate)

Maybe they should get together? :D

Anyway, while going over all this...stuff, I sure hope Putin hasn't had more warring in mind all along.

Hard at work to "recruit" here:

Russia Takes Its Ukraine Information War Into Video Games
^{— Steven Lee Myers, Steven Lee Myers · The New York Times · Jul 30, 2023}
Minecraft and Roblox are being used to spread Russian propaganda to kids
^{— Michael Beckwith · Metro News · Jul 31, 2023}
Russian anti-Ukrainian propaganda had made its way into ‘Minecraft’
^{— news.com.au · Aug 2, 2023 · 2m:24s}

I predict it'll work, though to a limited extent.

Dubbed "the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly":

High sea surface temperature in North Atlantic
^{— Arctic News · Apr 22, 2023}

Rising temperatures threaten to trigger massive loss of sea ice (and loss of albedo) and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Over the next few years, feedbacks threaten to start kicking in with increased ferocity and important tipping points threaten to get crossed, such as the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point.

Record-breaking North Atlantic Ocean temperatures contribute to extreme marine heatwaves
^{— Copernicus · Jul 6, 2023}

While the causes of the anomalous warmth across the northeastern Atlantic are still a matter of research, there are already several contributing factors to take into consideration. These include atmospheric circulation, air pollution and climate change trends.

Hmm... As an aside, I've come across a few that have mentioned they "game the system" for own gain (including on the forum), though on a much smaller scale (I assume). They good, those others bad...?


(my emphasis)

None of those are things we can do. That's the point. they're all things government can do.

Things we can do; — Isaac

4. vote differently (known as democracy :wink:)

But some folks work hard to vilify and stigmatize the word "socialism" and anything they can associate with that. One place to start, to put up a fight? :fire: (This wouldn't amount to vilifying and stigmatizing the word "capitalism" and anything that might be associated with that.)