My emphasis

offensive seems to have now concluded — Tzeentch

the offensive was — Tzeentch

Why do you think so?

which suggests heavily that NATO is not looking to get more military involved than it already is — Tzeentch

NATO members (and whoever else) are indirectly involved (no declaration of war / combatants). Why "heavily" though?

fool-hardly attempt — Tzeentch

Plausible enough, yet makes Prigozhin appear dumber than a fairly successful entrepreneur. Is he that out of touch? Does it stack up?

How Our Efforts to Bring Competition To Television Unknowingly Helped Create the Fox Disinformation Machine
^{— Preston Padden, Ken Solomon, Bill Reyner · Jul 12, 2023}

Reported elsewhere ...

Ex-Fox Execs Are Now Appalled By 'Disinformation Machine' They Helped Create
^{— Ed Mazza · HuffPost · Jul 13, 2023}
Former Fox executives express ‘deep disappointment’ for helping build ‘disinformation machine’
^{— Lauren Sforza · The Hill · Jul 13, 2023}

The "machine" and Dump share a category or something.

Opinion: Whatever happened to Mutually Assured Destruction?
^{— David A Andelman · CNN · Jul 6, 2023}

He would see this country burn if he could be King of the ashes — Lord Varys

↪frank Indeed, democracy is a bad system when most of the population is insane. — unenlightened

‘Resting,’ fired, believed dead: Russia’s missing generals reveal cracks in faltering military
^{— Tim Lister, Anna Chernova · CNN · Jul 13, 2023}

Surovikin — alleged Prigozhin supporter, whereabouts unknown, "on leave"?
Tsokov — RIP
Popov — airs complaints similar to Prigozhin's (Mishov), fired

Firing experienced commanders doesn't seem like a good idea. Might be smarter to take the noise as feedback? Anyway, who knows what's going on. Fear of mutiny, defection, public image? Whatever the case, there's additional evidence of Prigozhin's misgivings.

Maybe this angle will catch on?

Reinventing cosmology: uOttawa research puts age of universe at 26.7 — not 13.7 — billion years (at ScienceDaily)
^{— Bernard Rizk · University of Ottawa · Jul 11, 2023}

DOI 10.1093/mnras/stad2032

Rambling dude as usual (emphasis more or less like the original).

Preliminary results of the NATO summit.
Just like we thought:

1. Action Plan for Ukraine's membership in the Alliance (MAP) - cancel. Kind of take it faster.

2. Call country 404 to NATO. But they will accept - it is not known when and under what conditions.

Quite possibly never. And that's what realists in the Alliance are afraid to say out loud.

3. Increase military assistance to the Kyiv regime. Everything that is possible: rockets, cluster charges, airplanes.
The completely crazy West could not come up with anything else. Predictability of the highest level, to the point of idiocy. In fact, it's a dead end. World War III is getting closer.

What does all this mean for us? Everything is obvious.
The special military operation will continue with the same goals.

One of them is the refusal of the Kyiv Nazi group from membership in NATO, which we insisted on from the very beginning (which is impossible).

This means that this group will have to be eliminated (which is possible and necessary).

P.S. It was reported that Tokmok was shelled with cluster munitions. So, it's time to uncover our arsenals of these inhumane weapons. — Dmitry Medvedev · Jul 11, 2023

• nah, the Kremlin's invasion + bombery + all that brought wars closer, Ukraine told you "No", the UN likewise — leave Ukraine alone
• nah, Ukraine ain't ruled by a Nazi regime (actually, the regressing Kremlin is worse)
• Use of cluster munitions in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Give it up already.

Wagner looking to expand their repertoire (☢ Voronezh-45)?

Wagner fighters neared Russian nuclear base during revolt
^{— Mari Saito, Tom Balmforth, Sergiy Karazy, Anna Dabrowska, John Shiffman, Phil Stewart, Polina Nikolskaya, Maria Tsvetkova, Anton Zverev, Christian Lowe, David Gauthier-Villars, Stephen Grey, Reade Levinson, Eleanor Whalley, Milan Pavicic, Daria Shamonova, Janet McBride · Reuters · Jul 11, 2023}

At a glance, it doesn't seem all that likely. Then again... Either way, Wagner could apparently have acquired materials from Voronezh-45 had they wanted.

Treisman opines:

Opinion: Welcome to the ‘looking-glass’ world of Putin’s Russia
^{— Daniel Treisman · CNN · Jul 10, 2023}

More "alternate world" type stuff (like Jun 16, 2023, Mar 4, 2023).

Deer spread COVID to humans multiple times, researchers find
^{— Alexander Tin · CBS · Jul 11, 2023}

DOI 10.1038 s41467-023-39782-x

AI and CRISPR Precisely Control Gene Expression
^{— NYU · Jul 3, 2023}

What to expect...?

, neat illustrations. The evolving universe might be the most intuitive, except if "evolving" already presupposes time.

NATO flexes muscle to protect Vilnius summit near Russia, Belarus
^{— Andrius Sytas, Sabine Siebold, John Irish, William Maclean · Reuters · Jul 8, 2023}

If Lithuania was alone, I would feel differently. — Edvard Rynkun, 67

If not for the NATO membership, things here could already be same as in Ukraine. — Elena Tarasevic, 55

"We are preparing for various provocations", border guard chief Rustamas Liubajevas said. He added that he feared waves of migrants at the border, or border violations, or military vehicles appearing at the border without explanation.

Seems unlikely that the Kremlin or Minsk cares much about NATO military presence, it's not like NATO is going to attack. Kaliningrad looks like a nice appetizer, though. :yum: j/k

Well, maybe democracy and all that isn't worth putting up a fight for? (Such a sentiment would certainly please dictators, theocrats, and such, to which the Ukrainians said "No" by the way.) What's in putting up a fight, though? Here it included things and moral concerns that can take a good while to mull over by a large number of mullets...err mullers:

US to send cluster munitions banned by over 100 nations to Ukraine after months of debate
^{— Natasha Bertrand, Haley Britzky, Jeremy Herb, Radina Gigova · CNN · Jul 8, 2023}
Ukraine says it won't use cluster bombs in Russia
^{— Olena Harmash, Vladimir Soldatkin, Ros Russell, Mark Potter · Reuters · Jul 8, 2023}
Use of cluster munitions in the Russian invasion of Ukraine
^{— Wikipedia}

Wagner chief walks free after armed revolt. Other Russians defying the Kremlin aren’t so lucky
^{— Dasha Litvinova · AP · Jun 27, 2023}

, a bit has been said (and speculated)

Prigozhin’s public support remains significant despite Russian propaganda efforts, polls show.
^{— Anatoly Kurmanaev, Julian Barnes · The New York Times · Jul 3, 2023}
↑ plausible

Wigs, guns and a giant sledgehammer: Russian media attacks mercenary chief over lavish home
^{— Yuliya Talmazan · NBC · Jul 6, 2023}
↑ plausible (no mention of Putin + palace on Russian state TV? :grin:)

Lukashenko Says Prigozhin Is in Russia, Not Belarus
^{— Valerie Hopkins, Anatoly Kurmanaev, Ivan Nechepurenko, Eric Schmitt, Paul Sonne · The New York Times · Jul 7, 2023}

We don’t follow his movements. We have neither the ability nor the desire to do so. — Peskov

↑ Peskov not really all that believable

No one from Wagner has visited barracks offered by Belarus, ministry adviser says
^{— Guy Faulconbridge, Kevin Liffey, Mark Trevelyan · Reuters · Jul 7, 2023}
↑ plausible enough (what's up, mercs in the wind, where, back in Bakhmut?)

Prigozhin’s fate remains unclear and it signals more trouble in Russia
^{— Jill Dougherty · CNN · Jul 7, 2023}
↑ Dougherty opines / offers analysis

:chin:

Misc news...

Xi Jinping warned Vladimir Putin against nuclear attack in Ukraine
^{— Max Seddon, James Kynge, John Paul Rathbone, Felicia Schwartz, Joe Leahy, Nian Liu · Financial Times · Jul 5, 2023}
Kremlin: We can't confirm report that China's Xi warned Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Andrew Osborn · Reuters · Jul 5, 2023}

He-said-she-said :D

‘You can never become a Westerner:’ China’s top diplomat urges Japan and South Korea to align with Beijing and ‘revitalize Asia’
^{— Nectar Gan · CNN · Jul 5, 2023 (some comments by Joel Atkinson)}
Don’t try to be like Westerners – China’s top diplomat
^{— RT · Jul 5, 2023}
China dismisses criticism of top diplomat’s comments appearing to push for race-based alliance
^{— AP · Jul 5, 2023}

No matter how blonde you dye your hair, how sharp you shape your nose, you can never become a European or American, you can never become a Westerner. We must know where our roots lie. — Wang Yi

Don't Yi's comments carry some implicit admissions/implications?
Not sure why Koreans and Japanese would want to "become Westerners" (they should feel free to do whatever, join the Uyghurs or talk democracy if that's their thing).
There are other reasons at play.
Apologies for the side-track.

Looks like the Kremlin is taking over Wagner's lucrative businesses.

‘It is like a virus that spreads’: business as usual for Wagner group’s extensive Africa network
^{— Jason Burke · The Guardian · Jul 6, 2023}

Putin Wants Fealty, and He’s Found It in Africa
^{— Roger Cohen · The New York Times · Dec 27, 2022}

This would effectively cement what one Western ambassador called the Central African Republic’s status as a “vassal state” of the Kremlin.

Today, the Wagner shock troops form a Praetorian Guard for Mr. Touadéra, who is also protected by Rwandan forces, in return for an untaxed license to exploit and export diamonds, gold and timber from virgin forests and from Russian mining interests in the country’s central region.

France this month completed the withdrawal of all of its forces from the Central African Republic. Six years ago, they numbered more than 1,600.
Asked about this decision, the French Ministry of the Armed Forces sent a statement blaming Central African authorities for choosing to work with a “nonstate actor, the Wagner Group, that regularly commits violence and abuses toward the civilian population and is a for-profit enterprise whose business model is based on the plundering of local resources.”

No longer quite a "nonstate actor".

Some recent moves:

Homemade or imported - France and Germany have different strategies on air defence systems
^{— euronews · Jun 29, 2023 · 2m}
Neutral Switzerland and Austria will join European air defense project
^{— AP · Jul 4, 2023}

Proceeding from the UN ^{Mar 2014, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Feb 2023} ...

If Ukraine declares a no-fly-zone in their airspace (except for whatever they approve), then it's more or less settled, although there aren't any "higher authorities" to enforce that. Others may acknowledge or otherwise follow suit (like neighbors, the EU, NATO, the UN).

Sticking strictly to Ukrainian airspace, maybe it's time to take an enforced no-fly-zone seriously, bring it up seriously among those capable of doing so? Keep the Ukrainian skies (and just those) clear of uncleared attackers invaders bombers rockets, destruction from above?

What remains is risk assessment, implementation details, whatever. As far as I can tell, the only deterrent has been fear of what the Kremlin might do (risk assessment). We've now seen a year's worth of what the invader does, and the UN + the international community have spoken (repeatedly). Implementation details could likely be discussed for a long while, e.g. what if someone launches a surface-to-air missile against an enforcing plane? What say you? Forget it? Worthwhile taking up among the capable? ...?

, long ago, the thread established that all are bad. ;)

Motyl opines:

America’s leading ‘realist’ keeps getting Russia wrong
^{— Alexander J Motyl · The Hill · Jul 4, 2023}

On a backdrop of supposed NATO-phobia, deNazification, ongoing bombing of civilians, ...

Moscow says 700,000 children from Ukraine conflict zones now in Russia
^{— Lidia Kelly, Michael Perry · Reuters · Jul 3, 2023}

In July 2022, the United States estimated that Russia "forcibly deported" 260,000 children, while Ukraine's Ministry of Integration of Occupied Territories, says 19,492 Ukrainian children are currently considered illegally deported.

The Children Russia Kidnapped ^{(cache)
— Lauren Wolfe · The Atlantic · Jul 1, 2023}

Ulyanovsk and Krasnoyarsk (different regions) have a new political candidate:

"Merchant of Death" Viktor Bout, Russian arms dealer freed in swap for Brittney Griner, is running for office
^{— Haley Ott, Caitlin Yilek · CBS · Jul 3, 2023}

Mr. Bout said in a recent interview from his jail cell: “If you are going to apply the same standards to me, then you are going to have to jail all those arms dealers in America, who are sending the arms and ending up killing Americans…it’s a double standard. It’s hypocrisy.” — The Legal vs. the Illegal Arms Trade (Harvey Morris · New York Times · Apr 6, 2012)

Maybe he has a point there.

- "ordered" :)

Here we go again (again), on time ...

Russia's top diplomat Lavrov sees no reason to extend Black Sea grain deal (news version)
Russia's top diplomat Lavrov sees no reason to extend Black Sea grain deal (article version)
^{— Guy Faulconbridge, Michelle Nichols, Andrew Osborn, Grant McCool · Reuters · Jun 30, 2023}

The United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative last July to help tackle a global food crisis worsened by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine - something it calls “a special military operation” - and its blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

If the Black Sea Initiative ceases to operate, we will provide grain deliveries of a comparable or larger size to the poorest countries at our own expense, free of charge. — Lavrov

If they can and are willing to send the food free of charge, then I'm confident no one will stop them. Free to go ahead. :up:

OK, as food exports go, there was a bit of commotion a few months back, but Poland Hungary Slovakia aren't likely to get in the way here. (WSJ · Sep 17, 2022, Al Jazeera · Apr 19, 2023.) :)

As mentioned, it's just the Kremlin standing in the way of the Ukrainian food shipments. Without Crimea, they might have less capability to do so, yet likely retain those food shipments (free of charge or not).

The (sort of) ultimatum put forth by the Kremlin seems to list two options:

• no blockade of Ukrainian food shipments: reconnect Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT; restart Tolyatti-Pivdennyi ammonia pipeline; resume supplies of agricultural machinery and parts to Russia; lift restrictions on insurance and reinsurance; unblock assets + accounts of Russian companies involved in food + fertiliser exports
• Russian blockade of Ukrainian food shipments; Russia exports some grain free of charge

The United Nations on Friday said it was concerned no new ships had been registered under the Black Sea deal since June 26 - despite applications being made by 29 vessels - and called on all parties to “to commit to the continuation and effective implementation of the agreement without further delay.” — Reuters · Jun 30, 2023

Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met
^{— EURACTIV and Reuters · May 26, 2023}

The ("outrageous") sanctions were put in place due to the (outrageous) invasion, hence of (other) relevance.

Ough.

Russia reducing its presence at nuclear plant, says Ukraine
^{— Luke Harding · The Guardian · Jun 30, 2023}

The agency’s chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has alleged Moscow has approved a plan to blow up the station and has mined four out of six power units, as well as a cooling pond. Last week Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said Russia was plotting a “terrorist attack”.

The Kremlin does have a thing with radioactives.

Comments in brief:

More Russians Questioning Putin After Wagner Revolt
^{— Veuer via NBC · Jun 30, 2023 · 1m:11s}

Maybe the blogger should ask whether the Ukrainians really are "our enemies". (Or were at least.) Speak up. The Kremlin is Russia's. Russia ain't Putin's.

‘Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again’: Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord
^{— Andrew Roth · The Guardian · Jul 1, 2023}

A recurring theme I guess...

Does the simulation hypothesis also apply to those running the simulation?
Elon Musk on the Simulation Hypothesis
Could we be living in a simulation?

As thought experiments go, I think it shares a category with other ideas, where both the idea and its negation are compatible with attainable evidence.

Dream argument
Evil demon
Brain in a vat
Last Thursdayism
intangible invisible dragons
...

On the traditional account, we can know whatever happens to be the case.

We neither live in a simulation nor a ‘real’ universe, if ‘real’ here means an environment unaffected in its meaning by linguistic and material interactions among humans and between humans and that world. We co-construct the sense of the real through social interaction as well as via individual perspectival practices. The real is enacted, not passively observed. — Joshs

And yet what you don't know can still kill you.

, maybe Wagner will march on Minsk. :D
Better than causing trouble for others anyway.
Someone should set up a GoFundMe, "Wagner for Minsk" or something; they're guns for hire, right?
Might even spur the Belarusian freedom fighters on, though they're hardly aligned with Wagner, it would be like a tripartite clash.


Belarus leader welcomes Wagner forces but others in the country see them as a threat
^{— Jari Tanner · AP · Jun 29, 2023}

Russia confirms missile strike on Kramatorsk pizza place
^{— DW · Jun 28, 2023 · 2m:1s}
Ukraine says it caught a sleeper agent who sent video of a crowded restaurant to Russia before a deadly missile strike blew it apart
^{— Jake Epstein · Business Insider · Jun 28, 2023}

If they're that quick and trigger-happy, someone should try sending them photos of military installations in Rostov or something.

Ukraine-Russia war latest: General Armageddon 'detained in crackdown on Wagner mutineers'
^{— The Telegraph · Jun 29, 2023}
Russian general Surovikin was sympathetic towards Wagner rebellion -US officials
^{— Reuters via The Jerusalem Post · Jun 29, 2023}

Andrei Yudin dismissed, Sergey Surovikin taken in?

A summary, some interviews, ...

As Russia teetered, the elite trembled, and some private jets left (news feed version)
As Russia teetered, the elite trembled, and some private jets left (article version)
^{— Guy Faulconbridge, Darya Korsunskaya, Gleb Stolyarov, Mark Heinrich · Reuters · Jun 28, 2023}

On average the demand for foreign currency and cash rose about 30% but in southern regions near the mutiny and in large cities, demand rocketed up by 70-80%, according to an update by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov.

Tickets for direct flights to Belgrade sold out. One-way tickets to Belgrade via Sochi soared in price to 63,700 roubles ($742). Tickets to Istanbul quadrupled in price.

But within the elite, there is now a fear that Putin will seek to assert his position and remove those he felt did not profess their loyalty with enough ardour.

“Heads will roll,” said another senior source. “They will look at who kept silent, who did not speak in support of unity and of the president.”

Ongoing murder-mayhem in Ukraine ...

Russia blows up packed Ukraine restaurant, killing kids, as Putin shows war still on after Wagner mutiny
^{— Ian Lee, Justine Redman, Tucker Reals · CBS News · Jun 28, 2023}

Heads rolling on the Kremlin's account.



Hmm... Did Lukashenko blabber...?

Russia-Ukraine war live: Putin wanted to ‘wipe out’ Prigozhin during Wagner mutiny, says Belarus president
^{— Andy Gregory, Arpan Rai · The Independent · Jun 28, 2023}

Fun comment seen out there:

Putin: "It's not a war. It's a special military operation."
Prigozhin: "It's not a coup. It's a special military disagreement."

Anyway, whether staged or not, a coup attempt or not, Putin could use the events to enact more draconian laws, tighten control, perhaps start another draft, disperse blame or otherwise muddle the waters, whatever useful for his chess game.

! You never fired up a thread about that stuff, and there's so much of it.

Prigozhin has been invaluable to Putin, up until and including Bakhmut anyway. (No, not referring to Prigozhin's cuisine here. :smile:) Allegedly, Wagner has poured enough into the war to warrant medals. Wagner has also done dirty work for Putin elsewhere. Then, allegedly, the Defense Ministry, Shoigu, slaps Prigozhin/Wagner up and down — skips military support/ammo to the frontlines, sends untrained newbies, puts them in danger, plans to take over Wagner, whatever. (Would a Wagner takeover mean that the Central African Republic would become part of Russia? :chin:)

Prigozhin directly contradicted Putin on the old NATO-phobia. Nay, NATO wasn't really a reason for the invasion. The official line on the line. Though, Prigozhin laid this on people lying to Putin. And about other things. (Prigozhin doesn't come through as a patient fellow, by the way.)

So, what the heck is Putin going to do with that? He might have looked at the chessboard, looked again (a sociopathic look), and figured he'd effectively run with Shoigu.

I'm guessing the Club of Angry Patriots would run with Prigozhin — there are overlaps. (By the way, they're not outlawed in Putin's Russia despite being extremists critical of the Kremlin.)

Hmm :chin: ...

Russia says China backs its efforts to stabilize the country after mercenary rebellion
^{— Simina Mistreanu · AP · Jun 25, 2023}

Public appearances ... good for morale ...

Russian defence minister appears for first time since Wagner mutiny
^{— Gerry Doyle · Reuters · Jun 26, 2023}

, he could start out smaller, taking over after Lukashenko. :D

, yeah, though it's hard to tell what might come of it.

he wanted to have a politically apathetic population and that is exactly what he got — Jabberwock

I am ashamed that I allowed lies to be told from TV screens, that I allowed Russian people to be zombified. — Marina Ovsyannikova (Mar 2022)

↑ source

FYI, here are two different feeds on the Wagner move, with analyses, commentaries, summaries and such along the way:

• The Guardian
• NBC News

, don't know, I guess we'll see. They'll probably bring out the heavy/opaque paint, tell some tall tales.

The convoy allegedly downed a handful of choppers + a plane, earlier threatening to do that sort of thing if attacked. A fuel depot was blown up to slow the convoy down. Another country doing something like that could have resulted in a declaration of war, depending. What does a Mil 35 chopper cost anyway? An Ilyushin 22 plane? (For that matter, what about a gang killing 20?)

Reportedly, the convoy had something in the range of 5,000 fighters, some 40-50 pieces of warware (led by a nasty creep), with a similar number of fighters in Rostov-on-Don, where Prigozhin apparently was. Prigozhin mentioned the number 25,000, perhaps referring to the number of soldiers available to partake should the need arise. By some estimates, Wagner has 50,000 mercenaries altogether as of typing.


↑ source

Would the (heavily armed) convoy be enough to confront his foes? Short-term I'm guessing yes, longer-term no, possibly depending on participation. Reportedly, Kadyrov's forces were useless in Rostov.

What could Prigozhin/Wagner hope to accomplish, though? Force changes in leadership of the Defence Ministry, and go on about business as usual? Letting frustrations boil over, maybe Prigozhin thought so, with a show of force, if his various allegations could be shown true. If recognized, there'd be some (wide-ranging) implications for all to see, including for the war. But, some things have steered towards "business as usual", with charges dropped, mercenaries invited to join the Russian forces, whatever.

According to Prigozhin, the events weren't about overthrowing the government, but about changing the Defence Ministry leadership.
Supposing he wanted (or had been part of) a coup, he might have gone about it much the same way though.
A "bull in a china shop"? A "concealed coup"? (plenty room for conspiracy theories here)
Putin "the spy" comes through as significantly more calculating than Prigozhin "the warlord-chef".
Either way, a bunch of consequential things has been said by Prigozhin and Moscow. Wagner allegedly downed three choppers. A fuel depot was blown up to slow down the convoy.
Going to take some bending to make it look favorable for the Kremlin.

Prigozhin: "I'll be back."

Chechen leader offers to help put down Wagner mutiny
^{— Andrew Osborn · Reuters · Jun 24, 2023}

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said on Saturday his forces were ready to help put down a mutiny by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and to use harsh methods if necessary.

Those two should get a room.

Odd how Prigozhin apparently was pissɘd with the army leaders, but went about it by being threatening to lots more. And the 180° turns. (Is the Kremlin dependent on Wagner for the war?) Maybe more will come out.

Prigozhin: “ ‘Wagner-on-Don’ sounds good. ”

Putin: “ Sorry Shoigu, take one for the team. ” :death:

The Russian bombing of Ukraine out of Rostov is reportedly still going on, or at least continued after Wagner took over. I don't think Prigozhin is particularly into leaving the Ukrainians alone. Nasty piece of work.

In the Tavry direction, the Defense Forces liberated the territories near Krasnohorivka in Donetsk region, which had been occupied since 2014. The movement of our forces continues. — Oleksandr Tarnavskyi (Jun 24, 2023)

Maybe the Belgorod attackers will surface again.

But Beijing might see a bigger prize in playing kingmaker for [...] — Count Timothy von Icarus

:gasp: :fire:

Prigozhin apparently wants:

• to hang Shoigu and Gerasimov
• roughly unrestricted access to the resources of the Defence Ministry or otherwise full support
• for the Armed Forces to "carry their weight"

But has also ...

• called out dis/mal/misinformation coming out of Moscow / the Kremlin, contradicting them
• elicited a number of responses, including threatening, from the Russian top
• apparently exposed weaknesses in Putin's Russia

Prigozhin: “ Our special operation will just take a couple days. ” :D

Prigozhin is running a few lucrative businesses, including the Central African Republic.

It's all about following the money. You've got to understand that these private militaries, they need money to function, they need resources to function... We're talking about billions of dollars here, perhaps even more. — David Otto

Experts estimate Wagner's projected revenue for the timber alone to be close to $1 billion, while the potential revenue from the Ndassima mine — now run entirely by Wagner — is estimated conservatively at around $2.7 billion. — CBS · May 16, 2023

They have a good lot of re$ource$. Doesn't mean they can stride in and hang Shoigu of course. :)

Wasn't aware of Medvedev's "cult of victory" which was invalidated in 2012 just before the end of his presidency. Similar free/open critique/discussion today would be :up:.

Strengthening Ukraine is not tantamount to weakening Russia. The tsarist and Soviet past cannot be defined by Moscow alone. It is a past shared with other countries, whose perceptions differ greatly from those of the Kremlin. If Russia wants safe and stable borders, it should offer the same to its neighbors. — Rudolf G Adam

Russia and a return to Soviet-style central planning
^{— Michael Marder · The Japan Times · Jan 15, 2023}

I guess their efforts sometimes pay off, just takes a mob of loud anonymous creeps.

TV meteorologist quits after receiving threats and harassment over climate change coverage
^{— Rachel Ramirez, Laura Paddison · CNN · Jun 23, 2023}

Gloninger’s experience is not an isolated one.

@ChrisGloninger · Jul 16, 2022

The CNN article has various links.

this is not an armed rebellion, but a march of justice — Prigozhin (Jun 23, 2023)

Prigozhin has made accusations before.

The [Rostov] border guards came out to meet and hugged our fighters — Prigozhin (Jun 23, 2023)

, it was also reported elsewhere ...

Russian mercenary boss says Moscow's war in Ukraine based on lies
^{— Andrew Osborn · Reuters · Feb 23, 2023}
Wagner chief accuses Moscow of lying to public about Ukraine
^{— Pjotr Sauer · The Guardian · Feb 23, 2023}

The Defence Ministry is trying to deceive society and the president and tell us a story about how there was crazy aggression from Ukraine and that they were planning to attack us with the whole of NATO [...] — Prigozhin

Sort of echoed by some Russian soldiers (even if somewhat questionable) ...

Demoralised Russian soldiers tell of anger at being ‘duped’ into war
^{— Luke Harding · The Guardian · Mar 4, 2022}
Dmitry Mishov, Russian airman who defected, gives BBC interview
^{— Ilya Barabanov, Kateryna Khinkulova · BBC · Jun 12, 2023}

I am a military officer, my duty is to protect my country from aggression. I don't have to become an accomplice in a crime. No one explained to us why this war started, why we had to attack Ukrainians and destroy their cities? In the military no one believes the authorities. They can see what is really happening. They are not some civilians in front of the telly. The military do not believe official reports, because they are simply not true. — Dmitry Mishov

Putin might be in too deep. An exit would be :up: though.