Regarding the (alleged) Kherson retreat, DShRG Rusich, co-founded by Alexey Milchakov, posted:

And a bunch of cotton wool sharply began to accuse us of provocation, cooperation with the SBU, and so on. And we just stated the obvious - the clowns from the Moscow Region did not learn how to fight normally in 8 months. The city was not destroyed even before the surrender (everything should have been blown up). But cotton wool is grabbing - they have enough excuses for clown AP channels (and channels of supposedly military specialists who are sitting in the rear). For us, this is another betrayal of the Russian people, who believe less and less that "Russia is here forever." What's the next goodwill gesture? Berdyansk or Melitopol? — DShRG Rusich (Nov 9, 2022)

Ironic that the Russian army has bloodthirsty neo-Nazis in their employ. Nothing new though I guess.

Scattered stories from the frontlines...

Voices from the trenches: Ukrainian soldiers near Kherson share what they feel and fear
^{— The Kyiv Independent; Nov 9, 2022}

Mad Dash to Flee Village Swarming With Putin’s Drunken Troops
^{— The Daily Beast; Nov 10, 2022}

With cell phones being so common, a good deal of footage can be found of bombings, kamikaze drones, tanks exploding, and such. The destruction seems senseless.

a more defensible position, from which they can bomb Kherson to the ground — Olivier5

Others reported the same. They don't seem all that bent on defending this "piece of Russia" (annexed). Maybe the severe threats are more ad hoc...?

Analysis: Russia's planned Kherson retreat a double-edged sword for Kyiv | Via MSN
^{— Reuters; Nov 10, 2022}

Putin makes top brass take the fall for Kherson humiliation – and that’s no accident | Via MSN
^{— The Telegraph; Nov 10, 2022}

Just as a reminder in case anyone forgot.

Chapter I, Article 2 of the UN Charter:

1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.

4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

Downplaying some issues and "look-there" others seems to be Barbashin's main takeaway. Barbashin also noticed the subtle "justification" of Putinian politics, the autocratic un-democratic rule:

Putin wants the world to forget Ukraine
^{— Anton Barbashin; Al Jazeera; Nov 3, 2022}

Seen that before, and history has. (Perhaps more among religious extremists.) Aligns with the anti-West rhetoric.

What should we expect, though?

Of course Putin wants the US to go away. That's not to say the US shouldn't, just that it might well be what Putin (really) wants for Christmas.

Moscow orders retreat from Kherson — Olivier5

They're apparently moving further east as well. Maybe trying to isolate the Melitopol region somewhat? It's unclear how many poorly trained soldiers are present, though.

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map

Russo-Ukrainian War - Google My Maps

don't buy for a second that he's actually concerned about Nazis — Isaac

Don't think a whole lot do. Except perhaps in Russia, hard to tell. Either way, it keeps coming up from Putin and compadres.

Fascism Comes to Ukraine -- From Russia
^{— Cathy Young; RealClearPolitics; May 21, 2014}

Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years. And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous, bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.
At the same time, our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force. — Full text: Putin’s declaration of war on Ukraine · Feb 24, 2022

Can Ukraine have a ‘Nazi problem’ with a Jewish president?
^{— Shaked Karabelnicoff; Unpacked; May 15, 2022}

Anyway, if that can be scratched off, then their interest in Donbas was another from the get-go, and that was/is among their demands. And, if they had ulterior plans, then it'd be helpful to understand what they were/are, especially for decision-makers.

Russian Army Endorses Return of Soviet-Era School Military Training – Reports
^{— The Moscow Times; Nov 8, 2022}

Basic military training course to be added to Russian school curricula next year
^{— TASS; Nov 9, 2022}

Military training and "talking about important things" will take up 10% of the study time
^{— Novye Izvestia; Nov 9, 2022}

the introduction of such a subject in schools will allow for the systematic preparation of citizens for a possible confrontation with the enemy — Sergei Mironov

Soviet school kids were taught to assemble and disassemble Kalashnikovs. Now ‘Basic Military Training’ is set to return to Russian schools. Today one unhappy parent tells a Russian newspaper: “We should prepare our children for a peaceful happy life, not for war.” — Steve Rosenberg · Nov 9, 2022

Moscow's busy these days. Some years after 2023, Russia will be increasingly militarized, at least that's what it looks like.

corporate opportunity to screw everyone — Isaac

Does this really look that sinister to you...?

Bayer plans to invest approximately $34.9 million (35 million euros) to boost the capacity of the company's seed processing facility in Pochuiky in Ukraine's Zhytomyr region.
[...]
Bayer has donated more than 40,000 bags of corn seed that will enable more than 1,250 smaller farmers to grow food. — USAID and Bayer partner to support Ukrainian farmers and address the global food security crisis (Oct 11, 2022)

I suppose maybe it is. I'd run with it, though. (Foodstuff, millions of children, ...)

point about any deal — Isaac

The neutrality deal was to accommodate Putin's demands, "NATO threatening us", "deNazification", "demilitarization", that stuff. Their tune has changed some, and might continue to change.

Russia declares expanded war goals beyond Ukraine's Donbas
^{— Mark Trevelyan; Reuters; Jul 20, 2022}

As for the limits of the goals that we set during our special military operation, the President has outlined these goals, they remain unchanged. They will be achieved. Ukraine shouldn’t be a terrorist state that terrorizes its own citizens. It should not be a country that’s allowed everything, and whose impunity crosses all boundaries and leads to murders of journalists, political figures, and deputies of the Verkhovnaya Rada. It’s not only about the residents of Donbass, but about how Ukrainian nationalists treat peaceful citizens, as it is now happening in those areas of the Kharkov Region, and parts of the Zaporozhye Region, that they entered after our special military operation participants regrouped. — Sergey Lavrov · TASS · Oct 11, 2022

^{↑ very careful not to suggest "war" by the way :smile:}

Conjecture on my part: If they thought it feasible, they'd grab all of Ukraine, and start re-culturation immediately. Down the line, who knows. On that angle, the demands are more like rationalizations for public consumption. The demands have become increasingly fake-looking (almost ridiculous), but decision-making and such depend on understanding their aims, which may not have much to do with peace anyway. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are being bombed throughout, not pretty.

The neutrality thing addresses the demands, but if their aims are too different, then they wouldn't accept it, perhaps even as a starting point for talks.

As usual, all kinds of speculation about what goes on in Moscow...

Vladimir Putin is weakened and his opponents are preparing to strike
^{— Alexey Minyaylo via Chris Brown; CBC; Oct 7, 2022}

Putin’s No-Win Trap
^{— Kirill Rogov; Wilson Center; Oct 13, 2022}

What Could Bring Putin Down?
^{— Daniel Treisman; Foreign Affairs; Nov 2, 2022}

Putin is losing his grip and facing regime collapse, says Russian KGB expert
^{— Yevgenia Albats; The Sun; Nov 5, 2022}

Vladimir Putin's regime is being threatened 'from within', reveals Ukrainian official
^{— Volodymyr Ohryzko via Luan Trimi; Oh My Mag via MSN; Nov 8, 2022}

Would be great (maybe). Not holding my breath though.

going to take more than non-NATO membership — Isaac

Right, like a formal neutrality agreement, involving external parties like the UN, NATO itself, whichever.

already an agreement — Isaac

Except some number of their statements complain about that on their doorstep (been mentioned in the thread a few times by now). But, in a formal neutrality agreement, this would be put to rest.

Does it look like Russia gives a flying fuck — Isaac

Whether they do or not, it would at least no longer be an excuse of theirs, it'd be credibly monitored by independent parties (like the UN).

their naval base is currently in their territory — Isaac

In a war zone. Not a neutral zone in which they'd have an agreement, a formal lease.

This ship has sailed — Isaac

Don't give up so easily. Lives (and infrastructures) are at stake, right? Might take some time, but, hey, small steps.

they can just stop — Isaac

Not if they wish to continue warring. It's proven costly.

they're a lost cause as far as the 'Western' influence Putin fears — Isaac

OK, so we're beyond NATO and a neutral Ukraine here. We're talking Putin against a couple or so continents. If that's his real actual beef, his reason for war bombing killing destruction, then he's already steered onto a path with a markedly larger conflict, not ending with Ukraine. That could be. Without some effort, I suppose we'll eventually find out, though I (personally) hope not.

Do you think there's a significant opposition in Russia that would be satisfied by such an agreement? — Isaac

Don't know, but I'd be surprised if all of Russia is going all-out blood-lust. People have fled the country, some have tried avoiding getting sent to war, some poorly (or un-)trained new soldiers have reportedly surrendered to Ukrainians. Jussi Lassila's post from Apr 6, 2022 suggests less Russian enthusiasm than what meets the eye. But, hard to tell.

I think Putin is one of the radicals — Isaac

That's the bad part, where we might hope he's not a goner entirely. :/ There'd be no telling what's next.

something more substantial — Isaac

The suggestion could be a start. Try getting China in on it. Something.

I'm not convinced "supernatural" has much meaning as such.

If we were talking "supernatural magic" in fiction literature, then it could mean something like causing particular extra-self change by will alone, except maybe accompanied by rituals or something.

The Book of the Dead, theurgy, the Key of Solomon, Enochian magic, telepathy, ...? (creative fantasies)

Sort of similarly, I can't get a cab to go visit and shake Superman's hand, "Job well done, sir", but we can chit-chat about it just the same.



Back here in the world we inhabit/share, in what cases can "supernatural magic" not be replaced with "unknown" without incurring informative loss? In what cases have "supernatural magic" as an explanation done away with ignorance/errors? What does "supernatural magic" derive that's differentiable? For that matter, is there anything that "supernatural magic" couldn't be raised to explain? Such cases seem few and far between, if there are any at all.

The verbiage would have to be exemplified and set out to have much meaning, yes?

Al Jazeera reported (Nov 7, 2022; 3m:39s)...



Zelensky sets terms for negotiations with Russia
^{— Clyde Hughes; UPI; Nov 8, 2022}

Ukraine’s Zelensky Sets Conditions for ‘Genuine’ Peace Talks With Russia
^{— Matthew Luxmoore, Laurence Norman, Marcus Walker; WSJ; Nov 8, 2022}

• compensation for losses
• territorial integrity (per UN charter)
• bringing war criminals to justice
• guarantees against recurrence

That's more or less four of Anders Åslund's six items: 1, 2, 3, 6,
one of which (6) also was brought up by Oleksandra Matviichuk.

(hey, mine is more future-oriented)

Mykhailo Podolyak is skeptical...

‘Hundreds’ of Russians killed daily as Donetsk is ‘littered with bodies’
^{— Nataliya Vasilyeva; Telegraph; Nov 8, 2022}

Civilians grabbed from Podmoskovye and shipped off to the frontlines? :/ Apparently, that's what those taken captive says.

Isn't that a bit hyperbolic, ? You wouldn't give them a chance to do some good, helping with Ukrainian foodstuff?

, I don't know, ..., no NATO in Ukraine, a whole neutral country right there (the more the better?), no nukes in Ukraine, stability + some observers helping to prevent atrocities against minorities, one less staging area, one less geo-worry (check those eruptions elsewhere), their naval base on otherwise neutral grounds, a chance to show bona fides goodwill + potential for gaining international trust + rekindle relations, saving war resources (seems they already spent/lost quite a bit), possible cancellation of Sweden's + Finland's NATO applications, ease up some domestic tensions, sanctions easing up, a chance to exit the bad cycle/spiral, demonstrate resilience against the radicals for the world to see, less weeping mothers, decrease hate, picking the less risky/costly more stabilizing option, peace (in that area anyway).

Actually, the option might as well be put forth. As a starting point at least, a way out. Try to get China behind it. Put the diplomats to work.

But the Putinistas may not care. Might not be realistic. Can't say I'd be optimistic as it stands. At least everyone would know if that was the case.

A blocker could be if the Ukrainians were to demand repairs or some such. Maybe the international community could step in, instead of Russia, don't know, it's all hypothetical.

, the scenarios you pitch against each other are both risky. :/

How about reinstating the Kharkiv Pact with a neutral intact, otherwise free sovereign, Ukraine (though it could frustrate the extremists)?

Say, having some UN observers or whatever scour about would probably be fine with most, including the Ukrainians. We're not talking Israel-Palestine here. Elections could be independently certified for some time. Maybe any internal conflicts could be addressed over time. People could get on with life.

Did that ship sail?

As an aside, this review makes the book seem interesting: How to Un-Rig an Election by Alberto Simpser

Elementary school teachers predicament ...

• Russian schools to teach new course on Crimean "reunification" (Nina Achmatova; AsiaNews; Dec 4, 2014)

• Russia moves to eradicate Ukraine from schools in occupied Mariupol, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (Halya Coynash; Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group; Jul 4, 2022)

• Ukrainian TV host shows textbook to Russify school students in occupied Mariupol (Andriy Bednyakov; The New Voice of Ukraine; Sep 14, 2022)

• Ukraine's Lightning Counteroffensive Has Russian Teachers Rethinking Plans To Work In Occupied Areas (RFE/RL; Sep 17, 2022)

• ‘No way I could work for the Russians’: the Ukrainian teachers resisting occupation (Shaun Walker, Pjotr Sauer; The Guardian; Sep 18, 2022)

• Ukraine war: Tortured for refusing to teach in Russian (Zhanna Bezpiatchuk, Sofia Bettiza; BBC; Oct 1, 2022)

Re-culturation. (OK, I made that word up.) There's something a bit sinister about this stuff ...

• 29 thousand Crimean ‘Youth Army’ recruits taught to hate Ukraine and be ready to die for Russia (Halya Coynash; Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group; Feb 7, 2022)

• Russian State Patriotism and Putinʼs Invasion of Ukraine (Jussi Lassila; ZOiS; Apr 6, 2022)

• Young Army Cadets National Movement / Yunarmia / Yunarmiya (Wikipedia)

EDIT: wrong word

Chilling down back then apparently didn't go over too well.

Russia’s Potential Drawdown from Kyiv Fractures Pro-War Voices at Home
— James Beardsworth; The Moscow Times; Mar 30, 2022

I myself was in a state of panic yesterday. Today I feel better. The night was accompanied by heavy bombardment of Ukrainian targets throughout the country, from Lviv to Donetsk. — Alexander Prokhanov

We will not make concessions, Medinsky made a mistake, what he did was not right. — Ramzan Kadyrov

The submission (if not genocidal) tendencies aren't just Patrushev, Putin, and those folk.
This article was bad enough to get its own Wikipedia entry:

• What Russia Should Do with Ukraine (Wikipedia)
• What should Russia do with Ukraine? (RIA Novosti; Apr 3, 2022) ^{english via google translate}

What's wrong with these people?

, fortunately, Ukrainian food went out since April. Close call recently that the Black Sea Fleet would block them again, but I think it's OK now.

On the other hand, just think about if all war efforts throughout were transformed into supporting those 8 million children... (Some might even regain faith in mankind.) :smile: "And that's why :point: you should vote @jorndoe in the next election." :grin:

Are Iran and North Korea now in a proxy war against Ukraine? Well, effectively against Ukraine, though intended against Ukraine's supporters, I guess?

• Do Putin and Kim have an 'arms for horses' deal? Russia sends North Korea 30 thoroughbred horses by train after Pyongyang shipped Moscow artillery shells in bid to bolster its bungled Ukraine invasion (Daily Mail; Nov 5, 2022)

• Foreign fighters in Ukraine speak out on their willingness to serve: 'I had to go': (ABC News; Nov 6, 2022)

, Putin's Russia sure regressed. :/ Not all Russians (I'd say), but the autocrat circle is in control.

Russia has legitimate security concerns about NATO setting up shop on the other side of its 1,000-mile-plus border with Ukraine. — It’s Time to Bring Russia and Ukraine to the Negotiating Table · Charles A Kupchan · Nov 2, 2022

Sure they do, sure.

Putin frames this "concern" in dire terms (just like Patrushev), employing it as a justification for war. Been trying to figure out exactly what existential threat NATO was/is to Russia, but came up short, for the most part anyway — here.

Ironically, Putin's Russia has proven an actual present existential threat to Ukraine instead (to which the Ukrainians + support are responding). And, until they've taken over all of Ukraine, the supposed NATO threat remains. With Finland + Sweden it may now grow? Yet, if they were to take over all of Ukraine, then they'd become an increased substantial threat to others by the same thinking (Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia come to mind at first) — not that they weren't before, including nuclear-wise (2018). Putin's activities have all by themselves put Russia/ns at greater risk. See where this is going?

I suppose Putin and Patrushev might come to terms with the fact that any trust there may have been is lost, Poles, Romanians, many others. Simply telling Ukrainians that they're Russian doesn't seem the way to rectify. Let the warring shamming propaganda slide?

it appears to be that the US wants to prolong this war to "weaken Russia". — _db

Maybe that's become a factor? Maybe most want Putin to leave the Ukrainians alone, and quit it already?

• U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia (The Washington Post; Nov 5, 2022)

(Public talks have a chance of exposing bullshit, though.)

Much like Putin's statements, some "ideological" backgrounds, plans, and such were set out by Nikolai Patrushev:

• Patrushev: West has created an empire of lies, involving the destruction of Russia (Rossiyskaya Gazeta; Apr 26, 2022) ^{english via google translate}

A couple or so continents are out to get Russia, they're more or less fascist- or Nazism-bound. The victim, Putin's Russia, will set it right. [Have nukes, by the way.]

Egbert Fortuin offers an analysis of some of the topics:

Ultimately, the Russian propaganda is part of the concept Russkij Mir ‘Russian World’, where Russian language and culture are a means to restore Putin’s Russian sphere of influence from Soviet times or earlier. This culminated in the war that started in 2022. The war in Ukraine is not about language, but the status of Russian in Ukraine has been abused as a weapon, one of the factors leading up to the actual war crimes by the Russians against Ukrainians, both Ukrainian speaking and Russian speaking, that can be witnessed today. Whether these war crimes should be classed as genocide or not has still to be investigated. However, it is clear that the dehumanization of Ukrainians in the Russian propaganda, including the use of the terms “Nazi”, “fascist” and “genocide” by the Russians, has contributed to the atrocities that the Russians have committed and are still committing in Ukraine. — Ukraine commits genocide on Russians: the term “genocide” in Russian propaganda • Egbert Fortuin • Sep 7, 2022

• As one of Vladimir Putin’s closest advisers on Ukraine, Nicolai Patrushev spreads disinformation and outlandish conspiracy theories (The Conversation; Jun 7, 2022)

Talks negotiations diplomacy would be great. :up: (suggestion: a neutral intact, otherwise free sovereign, Ukraine)

• China's Xi meets Germany's Scholz, urges Ukraine peace talks (CTV News; Nov 4, 2022)
• The Biden administration is encouraging Ukraine to support peace talks with Russia nearly 9 months after invasion began, WaPo reports (Business Insider; Nov 6, 2022)

What do you say to someone like Patrushev, though?

, say, propaganda is around for a reason, lots of words are intended to or can influence, yes? Enculturation/indoctrination could be examples. Otherwise language would be kind of useless. :) I suppose, between words and subsequent actions, we might assign credit or blame, in whatever ways. If that's your drift?

I'd still like to know exactly what threat NATO was/is to Russia.

^{Some Putin quotes: Dec 23, 2021, Feb 24, 2022, ≈ Oct 26, 2022, Oct 27, 2022
Some earlier comments: Oct 16, 2022, Oct 18, 2022, Oct 28, 2022}

So, not nuclear really.

But maybe foreign troops close to Russia's borders. Maybe just foreign (NATO) troops in the host country? Albeit stationed for defense, they could be seen as threatening.

@Tzeentch seems to suggest that Putin's geo-objectives require control of Crimea. (Then in case of war with Ukraine, Sevastopol or a base alone wouldn't do?) Maybe or maybe not to the extent of non-control being an existential threat? A bit up in the air. Doesn't depend on NATO specifically, though. Rather, NATO would instead have gotten in the way of Russia grabbing Crimea, and the following invasion.

^{• Putin Admits Annexation of Crimea Put in Motion Weeks Before Referendum (Haaretz; Mar 9, 2015)
• Putin reveals secrets of Russia's Crimea takeover plot (BBC; Mar 9, 2015)
• With Trump on his side, Putin admits Russia staged the ‘referendum’ to annex Crimea (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group; Jul 17, 2018)
• From 'Not Us' To 'Why Hide It?': How Russia Denied Its Crimea Invasion, Then Admitted It (RFE/RL; Feb 26, 2019)
• Putin Admits He’s Worried NATO Could Help Ukraine Get Crimea Back (The Daily Beast; Feb 1, 2022)
• Putin admits Ukraine invasion is an imperial war to “return” Russian land (Atlantic Council; Jun 10, 2022)}

What else, though?

As a primary justification for war, this stuff seems to matter, yes?

^{On the strategic (chess game, objectives) side, SophistiCat posted something; not much else lately.}

If Putin is to be replaced, then preferably not by Medvedev or Volodin (or worse).

^{• ‘I hate them’: Dmitry Medvedev’s journey from liberal to anti-western hawk (The Guardian; Aug 1, 2022)
• Ex-president deletes post claiming Vladimir Putin will invade Georgia and Kazakhstan (Mirror; Aug 2, 2022)
• War in Ukraine Has Sparked a New Race to Succeed Putin (Carnegie; Aug 4, 2022)
• “Whoever resists will be destroyed” State Duma’s Volodin threatens Ukraine with “tougher response to terrorist attacks” (Euro Weekly; Oct 13, 2022)
• Russian lawmakers vet new bill against LGBTQ 'propaganda' (ABC; Oct 27, 2022)}

What to expect?

^{(Will they be sending homosexuals to "conversion therapy/camps"? Jail? ...?)}

, hasn't verbal fire mostly been directed at Russian politics and Putin + team? Rather than all Russians I mean?

, you think a chaotic Russian "Viva la revolución" is likely here? (☢ Kinzhal better not fall into the wrong hands)

Might not ethnic Russians in Donbas want to become part of Russia to help — Isaac

Don't know. You really think that's realistic (or a game-changer)? There hasn't been much indication that the autocrat circle is going away. (Hmm I kind of like the other potential development, the Russian justice system pulling weight, it could work wonders for trust too.) But it's all conjecture and idle speculation.

the Ukrainian government have banned opposition parties, censored opposition press — Isaac

For the time being, I'm guessing (conjecture on my part) that it's a (perhaps panicky) response to old news

Putin's Empire The Russian Federation has rolled their submission-machine out

All the bombing killing destroying shamming re-culturating

Since 2014, Donetsk + Luhansk (≈ Donbas) have been an organized Russian staging area, and Crimea was grabbed

After all, Ukraine is facing a real, present threat, analogous to the more hypothetical threat where Putin victimizes his Russia ...

And for our country, this is ultimately a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a people. And this is not an exaggeration: it is true. This is a real threat not just to our interests, but to the very existence of our state, its sovereignty. — Putin · Feb 24, 2022

And in the end, if nothing at all can be done, the aim is the same: to destroy them, to wipe them off the political map.
[...]
Russia is simply upholding its right to exist and to develop freely. — Putin · Oct 27, 2022

And that real, present threat is at Putin's hands, at that. Anyway, Ukraine + supporters have now become a bigger problem for Russia(ns). By the way, Russo-hate has grown in Ukraine, around here we don't particularly hate Russians.

, don't know, except, in principle, no. And "inexorable"? Hope not.

In principle at least, if everyone would just oust the autocrat circle, then new paths would open up. Not likely, could turn wickedly chaotic too.

Better if the Russian justice system was to weigh in for real — here's more conjecture on my part — and charge them with fraud, abuse of power, corruption, (attempted) murder, threats (cause fear of harm), obstruction, shamming, covering things up, illegal money/other acquirements/handling, whatever, for all to see, giving leeway to moderate voices and a process of real and transparent democracy, then things would look up. Could that happen? Well, in principle, yes. How likely...?

But this is speculation, the earlier comment was more like observation.

Putin's Russia went regressive, downhill.
Not really the best; all those nukes and Kinzhal don't help either, and at the fingertips of a creepy autocrat?
Having gone down that trajectory matters — we take it into consideration when making assessments, important people use it when making decisions.
All the bombing killing destroying shamming re-culturating really doesn't help.
I guess some don't want to get dragged along downhill, and some don't want to implicitly or explicitly assent to (reinforce/encourage/support) the regress.
Why would anyone jump onto a degenerative path/trend (toward an unknown future)?

, not sure how to thoroughly verify the numbers; admittedly I tend to take Reuters seriously (among the links).
Another factor could be the pandemic, though it didn't really take off until early 2020.
(Our neck of the woods, typically rather laid back, even had pandemic-related political incidents.)

FYI, one motivation for this post was Musk taking over Twitter, promising no censorship, trying to figure out where (if anywhere) free speech ends or should end.
Free speech can be "self-destructive" if you will, because it allows speech against itself, and, more directly, might incite harm or violence — then it becomes real.
As of typing, there are places where such freedom is stomped out to a wretched degree, and other places where it's abused ("weaponized" dis/mal/misinformation, whatever).
Middle grounds?

Just in time for Halloween:

The high-resolution image is quite something:

Pillars of Creation (MIRI Image)

If Russian warships are attacked in the present war, then Ukrainian food bound for various places will be blocked or worse, with food shortages to follow.

U.S. accuses Russia of "weaponizing food" after halting Ukraine grain exports (Axios; Oct 30, 2022)

The logic seems clear enough, yes? Putin values the warships being intact (untouchable) more than he values those people getting food. To me, that doesn't seem approachable as such, though he should be (regularly). What's next? Hold food hostage for Kyiv (London, Tampa Bay)?

Came across some earlier nuclear rattling ...

Putin used a graphic of Florida getting nuked to show off new Russian weapons (Orlando Weekly; Mar 1, 2018)


^{Putin shows video of nuclear attack on US (Newsy; Mar 1, 2018; 42s youtube)}

With the new system, there is no range limitation. As you can see from this video, it can attack any target through the North Pole or the South Pole. No missile-defense system will be able to withstand it. But even this is not the end. We have developed a new strategic weapon that does not use ballistic trajectory at all, which means that missile defense will be useless against it. This is what I am going to tell you about now, this new kind of weapon, a promising weapon that Russia has developed using new, unique technology designed by our engineers. One of those systems is a small, super-powerful, nuclear energy system that can be deployed in a cruise missile-like. Its range will be 10 times higher, which means there is basically no limit. — Clip Of Russian President Vladimir Putin State of the Nation Address (C-SPAN · Mar 2, 2018)

What to make of it?

No juicy selfies? :D

Liz Truss's phone hacked by Putin's spies in search for 'embarrassing' secret information (Express; Oct 30, 2022)

Finland Will Allow NATO to Place Nuclear Weapons on Border With Russia (Oct 26, 2022)

Finland and Poland could potentially end up hosting nuclear weapons.
Seems sort of unlikely that it will happen (to me at least); Finland would then become a Russian neighbor (border-sharing) with nuclear arms, of which there aren't a whole lot contrary to what Putin suggested.
But, unless Russia simmers down perhaps, it could become reality, more or less following Putin's moves.
I can't help but wonder, though, if a more conflict-prone or tense world is what Putin wants.
(Chaos levels the playing field, in chaos all are equal, until someone can use order to take control — a strategy alongside divide and conquer.)
Has non-proliferation taken a backseat? :meh:

Drones are all over the place these days.

Russian navy ‘repels’ drone attack on Crimea’s Sevastopol (Oct 29, 2022)

Ukraine war: 'Massive' Crimea drone attack, Russia suspends grain export deal, clocks controversy (Oct 29, 2022)

(Made me think of Star Wars for a moment.)

But you didn't, . It's a broader assessment. Take another look, here (quotes, here).

Similarly ...

Are we deploying missiles near the US border? No, we are not. It is the United States that has come to our home with its missiles and is already standing at our doorstep. Is it going too far to demand that no strike systems be placed near our home? — Putin · Dec 23, 2021

By the way, it seems clear enough that various parties were naïve or not paying attention. Putin's gunmen waltzed right in and grabbed Crimea. :smile: Something, according to your story, Putin apparently would do with or without Ukrainian NATO membership, for control. Back to the threat assessment.

, that's a bit ironic, because the question here was ...

I'd like to know what existential threat NATO was/is to Russia.
A fair assessment can (ought to) take place without going by any one particular person's story (Putin, Biden, Mearsheimer, Stoltenberg, Zelenskyy, and Winnie-the-Pooh came to mind while typing). — jorndoe

But you just keep repeating your story instead. :brow:

By the way, I already mentioned the Uyghur situation and the old Canadian Indian residential school system because of the uncanny parallels with the annexations — re-culturation. You might notice some of Putin's statements about "The West", NATO, whatever, bear resemblance to extremist manifestos (going as far as rambling against democracy). We've seen the type of rhetoric before. But that's not an argument, just an observation.

, so that's what Putin meant by ...

And for our country, this is ultimately a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a people. And this is not an exaggeration: it is true. This is a real threat not just to our interests, but to the very existence of our state, its sovereignty. — Putin · Feb 24, 2022

And in the end, if nothing at all can be done, the aim is the same: to destroy them, to wipe them off the political map.
[...]
Russia is simply upholding its right to exist and to develop freely. — Putin · Oct 27, 2022

↑ a couple of dire statements from this year not using «The term "existential threat"» verbatim, instilling that sense of urgency ("hyperbolic" or perhaps "fear-mongering" better than "dire"?)

Novorossiysk (Black Sea) and Rostov-on-Don (Sea of Azov) are more or less on a stretch of Russian coastal real estate from Veselo-Voznesenka to Adler (close to the Sochi Olympic Park). Rumors will have it that Putin spent a bit to develop Taman (just east of Kerch) since 2008, also on that stretch.

Maybe Putin should have used resources to further develop Novorossiysk and Taman for example, instead of spending them on (starting) a costly war ... bombing killing destroying shamming re-culturating. :up: But when you're the top dog Russian autocrat that's not enough apparently, and so an old-fashioned land grab it is. :down: There'd instead be less destructive jobs, perhaps praise instead of people fleeing, lost tanks, bodies, a Ukraine with increasing Russo-haters, heavy international sanctions, real threats.

As long as Turkey is a NATO member (has been since 1952, supports Ukrainian territorial integrity), Russia's further southbound sea access remains «at the mercy of NATO», if that means much here, it's any supposed NATO threat that's to be assessed here in the first place. NATO would instead limit Kremlin's free military actions; maybe that's what he meant by "develop freely".

, I don't think it's that unclear. Say, it could be the end of any of these, at least in any way that matters: Russia (country, nation); Russians (people); Russian (identity, culture, language); Russians doing Russian in Russia. Something along those lines.