but expansion of NATO has deteriorated relations with Russia several times and therefore deteriorated our safety in Europe — Benkei

More generally, I don't see how anyone can call an expansion of any military alliance as defensive. Expansion is by definition offensive. — Benkei

Sure, maybe that's an aspect of sorts, yet it was never about NATO specifically. It's about the Kremlin's vision of Russia, at least the current authoritarian leadership, and that losing control of Ukraine or parts thereof would be contrary to that.

We (the EU) need our own defensive alliance and leave the US and create a fourth power. — Benkei

Yep :up: if Europe can get its act together (I intentionally expanded "the EU" to "Europe"). Do you think Europe can create + maintain an effective defense? Hopefully so. (I don't just mean some "blue eyed" part of Europe, or Western Europe, I mean those wishing to be part thereof that can meet a set of requirements.) Yet that, all by itself, could be argued the same way by the Kremlin: "Can't have such a strong (capable) defen...err..threat on our doorstep. Offensive!" Authoritarians don't require much discussion debate bureaucracy agreement back-and-forth etc, things we've seen in North America, Europe, and elsewhere. The Kremlin, in its aggressive posturing, would further argue Ukraine wanting to join a European defense as being a "dire existential threat", "critical security offense", whatever. Again, it was never about NATO in particular, but about a grand vision of Russia's "destiny", that Ukraine has been forced into, evidently with little concern for Ukrainians or their aspirations.

Remove all Hamas — RogueAI

OK, or neutralize.

Remove all Israeli war criminals — Benkei

And those as well.

Nazism — BitconnectCarlos

And that. :fire:

Russia is rebuilding capacity to destabilize European countries, new UK report warns
^{— Danica Kirka · AP · Feb 20, 2024}

The Threat from Russia's Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022-24 (pdf)
^{— Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk, Nick Reynolds · RUSI · Feb 2024}

Well, the Kremlin organizing and sending operatives (destabilizing insurging propagandizing staging arming shooting), employing extremists (including locals), invading (shooting bombing all over), land grabbing (annexing intimidating referendum'ing (foretold?)) ... can pass for a variety of neo-colonialism. (← steps fairly well-documented, including in this thread, not ad hoc story-telling)

The former parts (destabilizing etc) need not lead to the latter parts (assimilation) though.

COVID-19 vaccines and adverse events of special interest: A multinational Global Vaccine Data Network (GVDN) cohort study of 99 million vaccinated individuals

^{— K Faksova, D Walsh, Y Jiang, J Griffin, A Phillips, A Gentile, J C Kwong, K Macartney, M Naus, Z Grange, S Escolano, G Sepulveda, A Shetty, A Pillsbury, C Sullivan, Z Naveed, N Z Janjua, N Giglio, J Perälä, S Nasreen, H Gidding, P Hovi, T Vo, F Cui, L Deng, L Cullen, M Artama, H Lu, H J Clothier, K Batty, J Paynter, H Petousis-Harris, J Buttery, S Black A. Hviid · Vaccine · Feb 12, 2024}

@neomac, long tedious invasion at first masquerading as uprising. Known playbook, seen before.

Don't know how much of this stuff is news around here, was to me anyway:

Former Wisconsin Republican Party chair says he was tricked by fake elector plan
^{— Anderson Cooper, Aliza Chasan, Sarah Koch, Madeleine Carlisle · CBS · Feb 18, 2024}

:D The Donald Dog Toy

For them (the West - TASS) this is about improving their tactical position, but for us this is about our destiny, a matter of life and death. I wanted people that will listen to this [interview with Carlson] to realize that. It’s not up to me to judge whether it hit the mark or not. — Putin · TASS · Feb 18, 2024

The largest country in the world...? :brow: Russia will persist, Putin is 71. Once again conflating grand (somewhat USSR-style) vision, at the expense of Ukraine (and Russia(n youth) for that matter). ^{2024Feb16, 2024Feb12, 2024Feb7}

:D Old Joe versus The Clown

Look, this is going to be a long, grueling, and mostly pointless campaign, since everyone already knows which of the two elderly candidates they prefer to barely tolerate. The one who can’t walk up stairs or the one who can’t walk down ramps.

It gets so dull hearing these talking points. The American dream is dead because Mars bars were $1 and are now $1.25.

I know what you hacks on both sides will say before they say it. Is it really healthy to blame every problem on Joe Biden?

The reason for that [more people have registered as independent voters than ever] is this kind of mindless partisanship.

We gotta get used to it, this is it, this is the race. Biden and Trump, the race is over. This is bad news for the country, I think. Very good news for people who build ramps on debate stages.

Did you know that Bill Clinton, has been out of office for 25 years, is still younger than both of them? I’m not kidding about that. That is a true fact. Their combined age is 158 years old. The first debate is going to be at the Museum of Natural History.

You know what’s trending on Twitter? Dementia Don, because Trump was talking about Nancy Pelosi during January 6, but he kept calling her Nikki Haley.

You know what else Dementia Don did this week? This is a direct quote, I don’t know what it means, no one does, he said word for word, ‘We are an institute in powerful death penalty. We will put this on.’ Even Biden was like, ‘What the f---?'
— Bill Maher (Feb 17, 2024)

(my emphasis)

would super very likely trigger a Russian invasion (plenty experts predicted this) — boethius

Not saying right/wrong, just that you keep interspersing postulates. Per earlier, the war was about loss of control. (Aren't resources/assets among the most common reasons for warring?)

, climate can terrorize if poked long enough collectively by humans.

Russian activist and Putin critic Alexei Navalny dies in prison
^{— Andrew Roth, Helen Sullivan · The Guardian · Feb 16, 2024} — Feb 16, 2024

A fictional dialogue ("When what happens in Moscow, goes to FUK3") translated to English:

Putin: "Get him out of my sight."
Unknown: "Yes, sir."
Putin: "Get rid of him but do not allow him to become a martyr."
Unknown: "Understood, sir."
Putin: "Forgotten by election season."
Unknown: "Yes, Mr President."

Some of the footage that came out of the imprisonment reminds a bit more of Hannibal Lecter treatment than a political opponent. Putin fears Navalny, Putin makes example of Navalny, Russians fear becoming another example?

, you missed the point (again), or skirted or whatever. Regardless of Kremlin CIA Mossad Sri Lanka whatever, this is what the Ukrainians wanted (again):

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and human rights violations.^(29)(30) Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.⁽²⁹⁾ — Revolution of Dignity (Wikipedia)

^{(you're free to work backward from the facts, but no matter)}
And there still was/is no independence in the grabbed regions.
So, to what end?


:/ Another one bites the dust:

Russian activist and Putin critic Alexei Navalny dies in prison
^{— Andrew Roth, Helen Sullivan · The Guardian · Feb 16, 2024}

, yes yes, I know, everyone should hate the US...and blame...at least suspect...always. Well, I've been asking "To what end" in contexts like this, and here's what they wanted (again):

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and human rights violations.^(29)(30) Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.⁽²⁹⁾ — Revolution of Dignity (Wikipedia)

Seems reasonable enough to me. Except, such a tedious lengthy damned process, surely if wanting to join modern democratic clubs and wrestle free from ghosts of the past. But the Gremlin threw a wrench in that with a roar...err war.

Anyway, the repetition is also getting tedious.

And there still was/is no such independence. Probably not really the Gremlin's plan in the first place.

Russia and West clash over Ukraine at Security Council meeting ahead of war anniversary
^{— Edith M Lederer · AP · Feb 12, 2024}

Had the Minsk agreements been implemented, Nebenzia said, “the tragedy that has taken place in Ukraine today would not have happened, a tragedy in which the U.S. and the collective West are complicit as they try to achieve their geopolitical aims at the cost of Ukraine and the lives of its citizens.” — Vasily Nebenzya

Whenever the Kremlin circle says ↑ this (emphasized), I can't help but wonder if they know how ridiculous it is. Along the lines of their alternate world type stuff. (Going by the latter part here, which isn't new.) How to talk with someone that doesn't care about truth?

Russian — not German Chinese American Antarctican Japanese — military is killing Ukrainians and the Kremlin has chosen to do so, more or less ongoingly. (besides, the attackers↔defenders relationship isn't symmetrical, attackers choose for both, defenders can't choose otherwise)

By the way, has Nebenzya considered North Korea (and Iran) to be "complicit" in "the cost of to Ukraine and the lives of its citizens"? After all, reportedly, North Korean bombs are on a killing spree, via Russian military, by Kremlin order.

So, the Kremlin circle evades/shirks their responsibility, and pseudo-offloads to others instead. I'm guessing one person could pick up the phone and change the killing in a jiffy, well, maybe. They indirectly admit to creating "a tragedy", but ... no ... (Misdirection.)

They cater to a particular argument (intended) to appeal to (against) supporters: The defense supporters cause the attacks that kill Ukrainians — implicitly, the attackers are one (unbendable righteous superior) and the killing is necessary. The defense supporters must cease and desist — remove cause and effect ("the tragedy") disappears. (Slippery slope.) Are the invaders unmovable and don't care about ("the lives of") people? In analogy, should supporters "be the bigger person" in some way, abandon the defenders, appearing to confirm the attackers' rhetoric?

It is Russia that is the aggressor and Ukraine which is simply defending its people, its territorial integrity and its freedom. — Robert A Wood

Accuse others of what you're doing. Kindergarten'ize victims. Grab land. Carry on with impunity. :ok:

Donbas secedes. It's messy, like most secessions are, but they manage to maintain their independence. They need Russian support, but so too did the US need French support; once you're a new political entity it is incumbent on you to seek out support where you can find it.

The US guards jealously its right to secede from the British; the war of independence was costly and bloody but they won (with the help of foreign powers hostile to Britain).

I don's see why I would reduce in meaning the Donbas Declaration of Independence.

Ukraine tries to reconquer the Donbas, fails, creates the inevitable intervention of Russia to resolve the situation. — boethius

There was and is no such independence, remember? :D Rather, regions were grabbed by the (regressing) Kremlin empire after their campaigns. (odd how these ↑ comments keep skirting other stuff, oh well)

Also, if Syrskyi isn't popular, it's definitely setting the stage for a coup. — boethius

Covertly, no protests or the like? After all, Zelenskyy was democratically elected. Protests seem unlikely in the current (wartime) situation. But, hey, who knows.

Looks like Yandex departs Russia, joining whatever others (ExxonMobil, McDonald's, Rönesans Holding, Payoneer, Match Group), for whatever reasons.

Faisal Islam: Russia’s war economy cannot last but has bought time
^{— Faisal Islam · BBC · Feb 10, 2024}

No doubt there are / will be effects, but they're hard to predict. Forecasts, anyone? Effects on their war efforts?

Okie then, you concur, land grab, because power and such, NATO or not. (By the way, they have other Black Sea presence + Sea of Azov.)

Their "dire existential threat" rhetoric was/is a call for nationalism (unity), without which waging wars is more difficult; goes hand in hand with their...other efforts. Also, you might have noticed that nuclear posturing is on them, though North Korea is more worrisome.

And to what end?

^(hint)

, again, it wasn't specifically about NATO^†, it was about loss of control (any such control and influence, to anyone), hence the land grab:

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and human rights violations.^(29)(30) Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.⁽²⁹⁾ — Revolution of Dignity (Wikipedia)

But, hey, a "dire existential threat" promotes a sense of urgency (fearmongering), and is also neat for picking up any anti-NATO (or anti-West) sentiments anywhere.

^{† 2024Feb5, 2023Dec26, 2023Dec25, 2023Oct15, 2023Oct11, 2022Nov13, 2022Nov4}

↑ nutn' new thread-wize

@boethius, so, in short, you say Russia is not really a threat to anyone, but NATO is an existential threat to Russia. :D *hah*

Yep, NATO is a threat: to Kremlinian free military (and such) actions, and to Putin's ambitions.

Mearsheimer has argued that Crimea would be, or is, a great geo-political-power-military asset to Russia, which the Kremlin apparently couldn't pass up. Land grab. Then a variation of "neo-imperialism" or "neo-colonialism" or whatever.

The Kremlin has instead proven a direct present tangible ongoing threat to Ukraine and Ukrainians. (And others.)

It seems unlikely that the Kremlin would have accepted this peace agreement, for example.

Maybe Kyiv's democratic (and such) aspirations are a threat to Putinian authoritarianism, to their control and influence. :D Well, their efforts threw a wrench in Kyiv's attempts to free themselves from their large neighbor.

NATO nuclear weapons in Ukraine was always and remains unlikely. Russian nuclear weapons and rattling on the other hand...

NATO was kind of simmering down over the years, but, with Putin's crap, that seems to have ended.

If Putin's Russia were to assimilate a fifth of Ukraine, then their NATO-phobic (and "West-phobic") argument would continue to apply to the remaining intact Ukraine. If Putin's Russia was to assimilate all of Ukraine, then Putin's logic could equally be raised vice versa by Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia, and hence the EU. It's open-ended perpetual crap.

And to what end?

↑ nothing new here

A recent study suggests that as women become more educated and have access to reproductive health services, they choose to have less than 1.5 children on average. — Agree-to-Disagree

It's not all that new, been a tendency for some time (also in religious demography). The "Idiocracy (2006)" movie takes a humorous shot at that (not really the best movie, but, anyway).

:D gave me a good chuckle

Strangelove limb control (1964 · 28s)


Putin limb control (2024 · 12s)

Girkin's unit of mostly Russians has crossed the border and started the hostilities. — Jabberwock

Not just Girkin. Anyway, Surkov was reportedly one of the godfathers running covert Donbas operations.

I stopped reading the rest of your argument when you state that Ukraine is a 'democratic' country. No, it isn't. — javi2541997

There have been quality elections in Ukraine since 2014 — Nov 28, 2023

... whereas Russia has gone in the other direction, despite their wartime situation. (← more repetitions in the thread) Dismissing their efforts with a handwave, reeks of bias prejudice discrimination or something like that. But, maybe you're right, maybe they ought to look into legislative amendments on appointing military leaders.

, you're comparing that to Donbas...? Sure, there are some similarities, and then there are the differences. By the way, the Ukrainian separatists didn't get their way. Rather, by Kremlin decree, Donbas (and Crimea) swiftly swapped flags, UA → RU. (anyway, this stuff has come up a few times already, including whatever aspects/angles)

Israel — boethius

... is a mad mess and has been for a while.

, , I'd say "Poor move Kyiv"; seems like we concur?

(I don't think Zaluzhnyi ran for office, though, .)

, the Canada-Quebec and Ukraine-Donbas situations differ. Adding to 's comments, a difference that matters has come up a few times in the thread.

The Kremlin sent operatives into Donbas to organize propagandize stage insurge arm shoot for years (eventually culminating with the invasion). Standard playbook. Oddly enough, they employ extremists of the sort they claim to be after in the first place (2023Oct8).

If we suppose for a moment they hadn't done all that crap (including invade), then Kyiv would have to constitutionally recognize minorities as per EU requirements/standards, as part of their EU membership negotiations. And why wouldn't they? It's not like they're anti-Tatar for example.

But that's a bit late now. The Kremlin's ongoing :fire: efforts, have created animosity (2024Jan18, 2023Aug22) that will take a while to heal.

, I'm still not seeing how Moscow has been threatened with nuclear bombing (or invasion for that matter).
It seems more like they managed to come up with that by themselves (2023Dec31, Starovoyt), now apparently to the point of domestic school curriculum.
But, yes, recently there have been some military types (German, Polish, Nordic, Baltic) having aired concerns of them being attacked, however unlikely that seems (fearmongering of sorts).

:point: A question: why do Moldovans get nervous and jittery when there's talk of Putin? — Feb 5, 2024

Is Russia preparing kids for war? Moscow rolls out Soviet-era 'training' to teach children how to use weapons
^{— Srishti Singh Sisodia · WION · Nov 11, 2022}
Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland (en)
^{— To help the teacher · Nov 15, 2023}

This should bring back some Cold War memories, for some at least. It's worth noting that the only nuclear rattling lately has come from the Kremlin circle and North Korea, who appears to be partners. So, what's going on here? A "2nd cold war" path seems clear enough, though the rattlers haven't been particularly successful in provoking any such counter-rattling. Are those two attempting to reinvent the good old nuclear holocaust paranoia, to the point of domestic school curriculum...? Just your regular (warranted) updates to teaching kids? I don't know, except it doesn't seem random. Anyone have insights?

You state they "covered their bases" and answering that is a side track? Or then you could just answer directly but are deciding to side track? Or is my question a side track? — boethius

Let me stop you right there, and apologize for (now leading you onto) this ↑ side-track:

What bases? — boethius

irredentism and such has come up among others, promoted by the Kremlin circle as justification — jorndoe

(↑ see that? focus – "neutrality" – "what might we then have expected from the Kremlin" – "for an intact Ukraine" – please stick to the train of comments at hand)

When you say Ukrainian sovereignty shouldn't be controversial, well neither should Iraq's, Afghanistan's, Syria's, Lybia's, and so on. — boethius

Sure. Well, why did Imperial Japan lose out? (Nazi Germany?) I suppose we might consider when sovereignty is lowered by other concerns, though it could end up polluting the thread. This is where Putin-apologetics re-enter (apropos "like they covered their bases", e.g. irredentism).


Right, , anything unfavorable about Russia is a Western conspiracy. :D


Meanwhile in Georgia

President Grills Ivanishvili and GD in Final Address to Parliament, Offers to Mediate United Opposition Platform
^{— Civil Georgia · Jan 6, 2024}

More fingerprints.

Let me just note (again), NATO nuclear weapons in Ukraine was always and remains unlikely (≈ Oct 16, 2022). Russian nuclear weapons (and rattling) on the other hand... e.g. Belarus (Jun 17, 2023), right next door.

:point: A question: why do Moldovans get nervous and jittery when there's talk of Putin?

The part about Ukraine is simply not true though. Ukraine is one of the poorest nations in Europe and routinely rates among the worst for corruption and not particularly well on political freedom either. The most you could say about the difference between Ukraine and Russia is that the former has at least moved up, haltingly and with much backsliding, while the quality of Russian governance has mostly atrophied under Putin. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Yeah. There are various aspects to the situation. Ukraine freeing themselves from the dominating neighbor to the north + east isn't easy, to the point of war. 2023Jul22, 2024Jan2. They're trying (from bomb shelters or wherever) and has shown willingness to do so. Not an overnight thing though, especially with the Kremlin in the way.

What bases? — boethius

Hmm Shouldn't really need a side-track to (genuinely) try answering the inquiry. Anyway, irredentism and such has come up among others, promoted by the Kremlin circle as justification. But the Kremlin doesn't want Zelenskyy or his government in Kyiv despite having been elected, maybe it was different once. (Euromaidan...?)

The Kremlin has another weapon in its arsenal: Migration policy (archive)
^{— Caress Schenk · The Washington Post · Apr 11, 2022}
The War in Ukraine Is a Colonial War
^{— Timothy Snyder · The New Yorker · Apr 28, 2022}
Ukraine's Lightning Counteroffensive Has Russian Teachers Rethinking Plans To Work In Occupied Areas
^{— RFE/RL · Sep 17, 2022}
‘New Russia’ and the Legacies of Settler Colonialism in Southern Ukraine
^{— Olivia Irena Durand · Journal of Applied History · Dec 12, 2022}
Understanding Russia’s Actions in Ukraine as the Crime of Genocide
^{— Denys Azarov, Dmytro Koval, Gaiane Nuridzhanian, Volodymyr Venher · Journal of International Criminal Justice · Jun 13, 2023}
Russians actively change ethnic composition of occupied territories' population
^{— Iryna Balachuk · Ukrainska Pravda · Jan 4, 2024}
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2024
^{— Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, Frederick W Kagan · ISW · Jan 23, 2024}

If your question was what would Russia have done if a peace agreement was reached — boethius

Not "a peace agreement", but running with that peace proposal. ("something along those lines" → e.g. toss in a fresh Kharkiv'esque Pact or whatever)

I will let the time speak for itself and show how Zelensky acts afterward. Will he still be the angel we all wish to have as a friend? — javi2541997

No angels around.

Some posters seem to think Ukraine is variously a kindergarten or just another sh¡thole or whatever. :point: Either way, wouldn't it be :up: if Ukraine developed toward something comparable to, say, Estonia, Germany, Czechia, Spain?

Odd. Part of the wellness industry has spotted climate change.

Wellness influencers fueled pandemic misinformation. Now they have another big conspiracy in their sights
^{— Laura Paddison · CNN · Feb 4, 2024}

Meta, which owns Instagram, declined to comment. The company has policies to counter misinformation, including international teams of fact checkers which evaluate climate science content.

... and then censorship, free speech, suppression ... the usual. When such folk were chasing lizards and aliens in the desert, they might actually come across something interesting (by coincidence). :up: This seems a bit different though, no particular independent "Go look". Also exploitable by others.

Can't recall where I saw this treatment...

p) this sentence is false
is implicitly the same as
q) "this sentence is false" is true
and
r) this sentence
refers to the same by self-reference, so we have both
p) this sentence is false
and, via the above
s) this sentence is true
which is an ordinary contradiction, implying anything

In a way, implicity and self-reference allow unpacking a regular contradiction, which, if not much else, isn't as mystifying.

Some division. Some of the rhetoric seems familiar.

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso withdraw from West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS as tensions deepen
^{— Chinedu Asadu · AP · Jan 28, 2024}

Taking a look at Moldova in the present context, there are plausible fingerprints of the Kremlin's grubby hands (modus operandi) across Moldova and Ukraine.
The Kremlin isn't that likely to go at NATO members (or non-expendable partners) the same way as Ukraine Moldova Georgia (at least not currently).
^{(since some posters are adverse to reports, I've just stuffed a bunch into an ignorable attachment; up to the reader to weed out/in whatever im/plausible)}

Attachment: moldova_russia.txt

To what end? (hence remains a pertinent question)
And why would anyone care anyway?
The Baltics have been supportive of Ukraine, and have their reasons, e.g. 2023Jul9, 2023Dec20, that might be applicable to Moldova just the same.

Reports evidence observations commentaries analyses opinions ...

• Moldova–Russia relations
• Moldova and the Russo-Ukrainian War
• 2023 Moldovan coup attempt allegations

, check things before you call them (Western) propaganda with a casual handwave.
(Since you make it personal, yep, I'm critical, though there's plenty of that already in this thread, I'll pick up some of the slack.)

Transparency International » Board of Directors (international)
Wikipedia » Corruption Perceptions Index » Assessments (critique)

Given the numbers above (36% is hardly admirable), I'm not convinced you checked or have any particular interest (other than dishing out "Propaganda!" when tickling your funny bone). Feel free to prove otherwise.

, that was a question, inviting responses (preferably evident/justified), it was even emphasized. :D Get your glasses, try again.

Corruption Perceptions Index 2023
(The Wikipedia article has a summary)
Somewhere around "the middle" you'll find Hungary and Moldova

Regarding EU support of Ukraine:

Viktor Orbán's interview with the French daily Le Point (in Hungarian)
^{— Orbán Viktor (interviewer Emmanuel Berretta) · Jan 30, 2024}

[...] Hungary is ready to participate in the solution of the 27, if they guarantee that we will decide every year whether we will continue to send this money or not. — Orbán

OK. But then things take a downturn...

[...] the European Union has moved more and more in an imperialist direction in recent years, especially after the withdrawal of the UK. It is a community of less and less sovereign states. More and more, regardless of what rights you have under the Contracts, what reasonable argument you give them, they try to force you to do something you don't want. More specifically: Brussels has been waging an ideological war against Hungary in recent years and is constantly trying to blackmail us.
[...]
I understand Ukrainians. I would like a huge amount guaranteed for as long as possible. I understand, but this is not a European interest. We have to behave differently in Europe. The Europeans also need this much money. In Europe, we are increasingly suffering from the poor performance of the economy. This money would be very useful for the European peoples, the French, the Germans, the Hungarians, the Poles...
[...]
At the time, I said clearly that we need Donald Trump in Europe. Because when Trump says "Make America Great Again" or "America First", it legitimizes us to "Make Europe Great Again" and "Europe First". Put Europe first, put France first, and put Hungary first. — Orbán

Russia says West understands ‘Ukraine project’ has begun to fail
^{— Burç Eruygur · Anadolu Ajansı · Jan 30, 2024}

A faint whiff of desperation or anger or something in Lapdog's distractions? Maybe things aren't going as well as others are led to believe? Anyway, who knows.

Russia lawmakers pass bill to confiscate assets of those who discredit army
^{— Al Jazeera · Jan 31, 2024}

Ouch. Say something un-Kremlin'y about the war → your house gone + jail? I imagine people in occupied Ukraine are feelin' it.

Rise and shine: Japanese moon probe back to work after sun reaches its solar panels (Mari Yamaguchi · AP · Jan 30, 2024)

Yaay :)

Oh look, another one :D

Romanian far-right leader lays claim on Ukrainian regions, Moldova
^{— Martin Fornusek · The Kyiv Independent · Jan 29, 2024}
Yasmina (Jan 28, 2024) of NAFO has unflattering words ...

, maybe Yasmina's word, "clown", is right. Anyway, so easy it is to lay claim to land.

Ukraine - Law 10288 (Amendments) (direct)
^{— EU's Venice Commission · Jan 22, 2024}
Ukrainian Parliament Amends Laws on National Minorities’ Rights
^{— Interfax-Ukraine · Kyiv Post · Dec 9, 2023}

The Kremlin sometimes take another approach to extend their authoritarian control (call it a variation of "neo-imperialism" or "neo-colonialism" or whatever), by setting up supposedly independent puppet regions, then accusing others of doing that (e.g. Medvedev, Starovoyt). Destabilization can be an action towards that, instability an excuse, immigration/deportation/etc a solidification. One advantage is deniability or distancing, though it doesn't always work well (e.g. Girkin). Nothing new I guess.

4. Russia has pressures to maintain a peace if Ukraine commits to neutrality and repudiates seeking NATO membership and cooperation. One such pressure is the diplomatic cost of breaking a promise, but there would be bother international and domestic pressures that would impose costs on Russia to reinvade. — boethius

Switzerland and Sweden have a tradition of neutrality, or at least had. Moldova has a constitutional neutrality clause, though sort of impaired by Transnistria. The Baltics have their own stories (2023Jul8).

Similar to what's come up before (2022Mar13, 2022Jul21, 2022Oct8, 2022Nov9), suppose that Ukraine had ... ▸ declared neutrality with respect to international military alliance memberships, formally on paper / constitutionally (2022Mar8, 2022Mar9, 2022Mar11); ▸ retained right to self-defense, e.g. from invaders (shouldn't be controversial), including foreign training and/or weaponry as the case may be; ▸ explicitly stated that others respect sovereignty, self-determination, freedom to seek own path (shouldn't be controversial); ▸ actively pursued EU membership, and perhaps sought other such cooperation ... Something along those lines.

The question is what might we then have expected from the Kremlin. Seems like they covered their bases, but what might have transpired then? — Sep 26, 2023

(↑ for an intact Ukraine)

With the Kremlin's swift sham referendums they kind of burned some bridges of their own, somewhat at least (if they care). There was a post-Soviet time when things were looking up, many wanted to cut military, create relationships with Russia(ns), trade, open offices in Moscow, what-have-you, but the emergence of Putinism gradually ended that, and now we're looking at a 2nd cold war.

Ukraine did want to be neutral. But as all of the East European countries starting from the Baltics, sooner or later they understood what Russia's plans would be... when it got it's act together. The Baltic states being tiny countries understood this from day one. Hence their objective to join NATO. — ssu

Yep.