I guess the Swedes are (uncharacteristically) ramping up defense efforts, including in Latvia. :/

Interviewer: "You think that there could be war in Sweden? [with Russia]"
Micael Bydén: "Yes." — Jan 8, 2024

Pål Jonson:
At the same time, Russia has mobilised its economy and defence industry for war.
An armed attack against Sweden cannot be ruled out. War can also come to us. — Jan 8, 2024

Aleksey Pushkov:
Following the military leaders of the Czech Republic and Holland, another one is the same - the Minister of Civil Defense of Sweden called on citizens to be prepared for war. “There could be a war in Sweden,” Carl-Oskar Bohlin said at a press conference. He was joined by the Commander-in-Chief of the Swedish Armed Forces, Micael Bydén. He is also eager to move “from words to actions.” My hands are really itching.
Sweden is one of the first countries in Europe in terms of the level of anti-Russian paranoia. Russian submarines have been fishing there for many years, and for some it has become the main occupation in life. For many years they have been telling how Russia is supposedly “preparing to capture Gothenburg”, and other nonsense. Apparently, this is how they try to give Sweden a geopolitical importance that it does not have. Sometimes it seems that some Swedish military personnel, as well as journalists, are almost dreaming of war. Apparently they can’t calm down since the defeat at Poltava... — Jan 8, 2024

Pål Jonson:
I do not engage with Russia when they use various forms of disinformation.
Russia has put both its economy and its defense industry on a war footing, and of course they continue to pressure Ukraine. — Jan 9, 2024

Reacting to the Kremlin. Probably shouldn't be that surprising any longer.

Putin really wanted to reach a peaceful settlement with Ukraine — Tzeentch

Well, why wouldn't he want Crimea + Donbas "for free"? :)
That's exactly what his "peaceful settlement" would have been.
Grab (steal) → peace (official) → done (might have avoided some sanctions and whatever else too). :up:
Must be among the simplest + cheapest ways to grab land.

There's been a number of diplomatic efforts since Feb 2022 (including some grain export negotiations) + some polls.

, takes democrats internally + externally, people standing up, not forgetting. Easier said than done.

Well done :D

Inviolability, life support and protection: guarantees for Lukashenka after the presidency have been determined (in Belarusian)
^{— Radio Svaboda · Dec 23, 2023}
President of Belarus gives himself immunity from prosecution and limits potential challengers
^{— Yuras Karmanau · AP · Jan 4, 2024} — Jan 4, 2024

Belarus refuses to invite OSCE observers to monitor this year’s parliamentary election
^{— Yuras Karmanau · AP · Jan 8, 2024}

Belarus is a member of the OSCE, and members of its Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights have been the only international observers at Belarusian elections for decades.

“Belarus holds the election for itself first and foremost,” Karpenka said, adding that Belarusian authorities will invite observers from Russia and Central Asian nations.

Since 1995, all elections and referendums in Belarus have been deemed by the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the OSCE as not conforming to the organization’s standards and being neither transparent nor fair. Meanwhile, observers from Russia and countries allied with Belarus view all the votes within the country as democratic.

I guess they bother at all ... for appearances, to appease certain sensibilities, like a ritual, ... Have to wonder what results genuine democratic elections (with free press and such) would give.

The UN does not advocate for a specific model of government but promotes democratic governance as a set of values and principles that should be followed for greater participation, equality, security and human development. Democracy provides an environment that respects human rights and fundamental freedoms, and in which the freely expressed will of people is exercised. People have a say in decisions and can hold decision-makers to account. Women and men have equal rights and all people are free from discrimination. — The UN

No cruel and unusual punishment, respect one's personal beliefs- whatever they may be as long as they are not harming others, due process and rights of representation, people should be able to peacefully protest and write their thoughts, things like this — schopenhauer1

I guess there are any number of characteristics, transparency, freedom, ... And non-characteristics, authoritarianism, oppression, ... There's no magic bullet. Involves ethics.

Who is to do do this "working with"? — Vera Mont

It takes democrats (I don't mean the US party :grin:). A democracy where the people have become infatuated with a would-be dictator is less likely to stay (as) democratic. Demagogues can democratically undo democracy. Academic critique by itself might not do. It takes people standing up for those things.

The United States and the Arab Spring: The Dynamics of Political Engineering

A worthwhile read. — Tzeentch

FYI, author Gamal M Selim, published Summer 2013:

Conclusion

The short-lived US democracy-promotion agenda following 9/11 did not result in any meaningful democratization in the Arab world. As the United States abandoned this agenda and did not incur any major risks as a result, it seemed content with its policy of endorsing the Arab autocrats. That explains the fact that the United States was surprised by the outbreak of mass uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. The United States did not plan the Arab Spring as claimed by some analysts, as the local autocrats were doing everything possible to secure American and Israeli interests in the region.

Following the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the United States embarked upon a process of political engineering under which it was able to reverse a revolutionary trend which could have jeopardized American interests in the Arab world. Today, the revolutionaries who initiated the change did not assume the leading positions in dismantling the old authoritarian regimes and building new democratic ones. Ironically, elements of the old pro-American regimes assumed these tasks in Egypt and Yemen. For the first time, we have democratic projects designed and implemented by elements who were main actors in the old dictatorships. In the case of Libya, a complete reshuffling process took place where the revolutionary movements were marginalized and a new pro-American regime was installed, thus replacing the insubordinate, highly unpredictable regime of Qaddafi. In the case of Bahrain, the United States was able to suppress revolutionary changes through covert military intervention.

It is important to note, however, that these strategies did not resolve the main problems which produced the revolutionary discontent in the Arab world. Rather, they prolonged them and opened new horizons for further upheavals in the Arab world. Perhaps the most noticeable among these problems are (i) the continuity with the neo-liberal economic policies, which had created a tremendous gap between the rich and the poor unprecedented in recent Arab history, and (ii) the US full endorsement of Israeli policies in the region. These policies are bound to generate more anti-American resentment in the region and lead to more future surprises. In other words, the United States has not grasped yet the social and historical underpinnings of the Arab Spring. The United States may have won in the short-term; however, in the long-term, more violent developments are bound to occur.
— Gamal M Selim · Summer 2013

:D , I'm referring to the protesters.

, well, there might be responses to either. Say, do you think they were reasonable persons in protesting those causes in their situation?

Should one take the Kremlin's irredentist promotions seriously ...

• Putin: Russians, Ukrainians are ‘one people’
  ^{— AP · Jul 20, 2019}

I believe that Russians and Ukrainians are one people ... one nation, in fact. When these lands that are now the core of Ukraine joined Russia ... nobody thought of themselves as anything but Russians. [...] we can use this as our competitive advantage during some form of integration. — Vladimir Putin · Jun 19, 2019

• On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians
  ^{— Vladimir Putin · Jul 12, 2021}

• ‘Russification’ erodes Ukraine’s sovereignty in occupied Kherson
  ^{— Mehul Srivastava, Veronika Samborska · Financial Times · Aug 5, 2022}

this has included road signs exhorting Ukrainians to believe they are “One People . . . With Russia”

In this video from a liberated town in #Kharkiv region, east #Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers removed a Russian propaganda poster saying “We are one people with Russia”. Only to reveal a poster with national poet Shevchenko’s verse “Fight and you will win”. — Alex Kokcharov · Sep 10, 2022

• ‘Never saw such hell': Russian soldiers in Ukraine call home
  ^{— Erika Kinetz, Solomiia Hera, Anna Pavlova · AP · Feb 24, 2023}

Russian soldiers had been told by Putin and others that they’d be welcomed by their brothers and sisters in Ukraine as liberators.

... then their impressive destruction and killing nonetheless tell a different story. Whether miscalculation, delusion, honest false belief, or something else, land grab fits the bill. The swift opaque referendums suggest the same. Land grab, influence, control, power, "Ukrainian brothers and sisters be dɐmnɘd".

Ukrainians and Russians as ‘One People’: An Ideologeme and its Genesis
^{— Pål Kolstø · Taylor and Francis · Aug 23, 2023}

What was your question or objection? — boagie

Again? https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/868183

(peripheral to the conflict)

Well done :D

Inviolability, life support and protection: guarantees for Lukashenka after the presidency have been determined (in Belarusian)
^{— Radio Svaboda · Dec 23, 2023}
President of Belarus gives himself immunity from prosecution and limits potential challengers
^{— Yuras Karmanau · AP · Jan 4, 2024}

Give the Houthi some missiles to attack the HMS Diamond?

After Novocherkassk: A New Chapter in Naval Warfare
^{— BNN · Jan 2, 2024}
Putin is asked to order NATO attack - but not from Russia (en)
^{— Marcus Oscarsson · Jan 4, 2024}

, hmm well ok, no response to my response to your comments before. Should those comments of yours be disregarded then?

Cheering on BRICS as if they were Manchester United instead eh... :) I guess you could fire up a new thread.

, I've only lived in the US for ≈ half a year, it was in the past and mostly business related. Not that it matters. But you're still not answering the comments, you resumed the (known) script instead (almost verbatim). :shrug:

, did you ignore my comments on purpose? They were responses to two of your comments (this, this) plus about promoting authoritarian regimes (maybe you are genuinely anti-democracy).

^{(responding according to a known script gives the impression that your comments are somewhat prepackaged, somewhat indicative of knowingly spreading propaganda)}

How James Webb Changed Astronomy (Primal Space · Apr 23, 2023 · 9m:11s)

, right, this is US colonialism. :lol:

, known nuclear weaponry placements as of ≈ Oct 16, 2022. Belarus (bordering Latvia Lithuania Poland Ukraine Russia) has reportedly received nuclear weaponry from Russia since. :scream:

If Putin's Russia were to assimilate a fifth of Ukraine, then their NATO-phobic argument would continue to apply to the remaining four-fifths of Ukraine just the same. If Putin's Russia was to assimilate all of Ukraine, then Putin's logic could equally be raised vice versa by Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia (Oct 13, 2022; Nov 26, 2022), and hence the EU. Open-ended, perpetual. — Sep 17, 2023

Keep up promoting authoritarian regimes (and reciting their propaganda). ;)


Hmm... Not wasting any time...

Mariupol City Council

Videos of Putin and the blockade of Leningrad: what Mariupol children will be taught during the occupation

The occupiers systematically continue to instill their ideology in the children of Mariupol. In schools, they hold "Conversations about the important", murderers are called "heroes", and Russian textbooks are brought to the libraries of educational institutions.

The so-called "Ministry of Education and Science of the Donetsk People's Republic" has already issued a plan of "educational measures" for 2024. They plan to "educate" children by showing video recordings of meetings between the Russian dictator and international criminal Putin with students.

They also plan to tell the students about the liberation of the besieged Leningrad from the fascists. However, they forget to tell about the blockade of Mariupol, which the Russians carried out in the spring of 2022.

Attempts to distort history and reality run into the memory of the people of Mariupol, who personally know who and what was done to their city for almost three months. The truth will surely win!
— Mariupol City Council · Jan 2, 2024

The present war started around Feb 27, 2014 when the Kremlin initiated grabbing Crimea; hardly a shot was fired. A direct pretext ("neither evil nor ignorant") was:

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and human rights violations.^(29)(30) Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.⁽²⁹⁾ — Revolution of Dignity (Wikipedia)

As mentioned in the parallel thread (now moved here), part of these efforts were about shedding the shackles of the dominant (regressing) northern neighbor, whom you'll notice have some of those same problems the Euromaidan protests were about. Protests/assembly have more or less been stomped out by the Kremlin. The Ukrainians are trying while being bombed. The Kremlin orders the bombing and their trying is on another path. (Pick your poison?)



Observed, documented. The supposed dire threat to Russia is to the Kremlin's (authoritarian) control/influence, not to democracy transparency freedom, not to Russian farmers. Sauli Niinistö mentioned some implications in his New Year's speech, which don't really look good.

Kicking off 2024, Sauli Niinistö and Oleksiy Danilov commented on the Ukrainian situation. As you'd expect, the outgoing Finnish president was measured and non-inflammatory (unless you're Putin perhaps), the head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense less so. Their messages overlap, with some concerning (albeit not new) implications:

In Ukraine, the front has been almost stationary for a long time, but the war is in constant motion. It is fought on battlefields where every day claims its victims. The civilian population is not protected either.

I believe that it is not so much due to fatigue or lack of will. A more serious theme is ensuring the ability to help in the long term, sufficient resources. Europe must wake up.

Investing in weapons production is not necessary just to be able to provide the help that is needed. It is needed to ensure that Europe is strong, not for war, but for peace.

Russia is never as strong as it appears to be, and never as weak as it appears to be. Russia's intention to defeat Ukraine in a few weeks failed, as the bravery of the Ukrainians overcame the onslaught.
— Sauli Niinistö · Jan 1, 2024

Only the systematic, consistent and methodical destruction of putin's fascist formation is the only guarantee of security for Ukraine and the world, and the absence of a missile threat to peaceful cities. Give Ukraine weapons, and we will bury this piece of...
We have fought and will continue to fight, no matter how many missiles are flying in our sky. There is no force that can stop us in our fight to revenge all 514 murdered Ukrainian children, fallen defenders, and every innocent Ukrainian soul tortured.
We will pay off a hundredfold!
We thank the defenders of the Ukrainian sky and rescuers, doctors and power engineers, everyone who has stood up to russian terrorist attacks! — Oleksiy Danilov · Jan 2, 2024

The Kremlin's ongoing moves have created much animosity on the ground.

We know that there is no color or sound in the real world, it is [...] — boagie

Hmm... Are you saying that our experiences are not part of the real world? Sure, they might be existentially mind-dependent, yet aren't (also) minds part of the world? :chin:

The West wasn't willing to stick its neck out for Ukraine when — Tzeentch

neither the US nor Europe is willing to stick their neck out — Tzeentch

Well, then no one was. :shrug: China, North and South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, ...

the NordStream bombings which were obviously planned (and probably carried out) by the US — Tzeentch

... in your opinion (again)?

The Gremlin circle, with Pukin at the helm, has been telling a particular story, a tale of doom and destruction, a vast plot and dire existential threat:

As for our country, after the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., given the entire unprecedented openness of the new, modern Russia, its readiness to work honestly with the United States and other Western partners, and its practically unilateral disarmament, they immediately tried to put the final squeeze on us, finish us off, and utterly destroy us. — Vladimir Putin · Feb 24, 2022

In essence, Russia is fighting the notorious collective West, defending its very existence as a country, people, and civilization. — Valentina Matviyenko · Jun 10, 2022

We are fighting for our place in the world, for our historical future, and, undoubtedly, victory will be ours. Our country is now experiencing a truly historic moment. The main factor in Russia's development is its sovereignty, the right to independently determine its own destiny. Sovereignty is a guarantee of the well-being and dignity of our citizens, it is the future of our children. In such matters, Russia has never retreated and will not retreat, because otherwise it will cease to be Russia. — Sergey Naryshkin · Jul 5, 2022

Either we win in the way we consider our victory, or there will be World War III, sooner or later. I don't see any other way. — Margarita Simonyan · Dec 4, 2022

It is no longer a secret to anyone that the strategic goal of the United States and its NATO allies is 'victory over Russia on the battlefield' as a mechanism for significantly weakening or even destroying our country. — Sergey Lavrov · Dec 27, 2022

The Westerners' plans are to continue to pull Russia apart, and eventually just erase it from the political map of the world. — Nikolai Patrushev · Jan 10, 2023

We pray to the Lord that He will enlighten those madmen and help them understand that any desire to destroy Russia will mean the end of the world. — Patriarch Kirill of Moscow · Jan 19, 2023

The Western elite make no secret of their goal, which is, I quote, “Russia’s strategic defeat.” What does this mean to us? This means they plan to finish us once and for all. In other words, they plan to grow a local conflict into a global confrontation. This is how we understand it and we will respond accordingly, because this represents an existential threat to our country. — Vladimir Putin · Feb 21, 2023

If Russia stops its special military operation without achieving victory, there will be no Russia, it will be torn apart. — Dmitry Medvedev · Feb 22, 2023

Currently, we are again facing a serious danger. Exploiting Ukraine, the collective West seeks to break up Russia and to rob it of its independence. — Sergei Shoigu · Feb 23, 2023

They have one goal: to disband the former Soviet Union and its fundamental part — the Russian Federation. I do not even know if such an ethnic group as the Russian people will be able to survive in the form in which it exists today. — Vladimir Putin · Feb 26, 2023

The existential nature of threats to the security and development of our country, driven by the actions of unfriendly states is recognised. — Sergey Lavrov · Mar 31, 2023

Ukraine is a puppet of forces that want to destroy Russia and take away its historical lands. — Roman Starovoyt · Jan 22, 2024

for us this is about our destiny, a matter of life and death — Vladimir Putin · Feb 18, 2024

For the domestic audience it's a (hyperbolic) nationalistic call for unity (seen before), in general it's for anyone they might pick up along the way because of something negative about "the West" or NATO, which is easy enough. Many has independently commented (← you can check their credentials sources whatever yourself), including Catriona Kelly (Mar 20, 2022) · Ruth Deyermond (Mar 20, 2022) · Robert Person, Michael McFaul (Apr 2022) · Emily Ferris (Jul 27, 2022) · Andrew Katell (Feb 26, 2023) · Delhi audience (Mar 4, 2023) · Steven Pifer (Mar 6, 2023). NATO has kept tiptoeing around Russia.

The Kremlin's authoritarianism regress oppression opacity irredentism posturing polemic bombing is indeed threatening, and anyone valuing democracy transparency freedom can be expected to respond, which, granted, can also be threatening. Incidentally (perhaps), the Kremlin circle tends to conflate themselves and Russia, in their responses. It might be possible to argue that Armenia Israel Palestine Moldova whichever is endangered. But Russia? Get real. Ironically, the Kremlin's supposed grievances towards two or three continents + NATO, are Ukraine's real grievances towards the Kremlin.

Happy New Year, Ukraine. And Russia.

, I guess it's customary to discuss the context from world war 2 onwards.

Both parties lay claim to religio-historical areas (+ there's a contemporary geo-context) ... Both parties have exhibited sort of genocidal tendencies if you will ... The badness on both sides has been re-repeated throughout the threat...err...thread many times (often by loud partisans) ...

What am I missing? :) What would be some good stuff, suggestions toward peace stability prosperity, forward-looking, something like that? (assuming there are any)

, the (supposedly) religious aspects aren't quite as innocent as you seem to describe.

Persecution of Zoroastrians
^{— Wikipedia}
Muhammad Bakhtiyar Khalji (1150-1206)
^{— Wikipedia}

Still to this day, in some cases. :/

Iranian Regime Inciting Hatred, Persecuting Zoroastrian Minority
^{— Ahmad Majidyar · The Middle East Institute · Feb 3, 2017}

↑ There are some genocidal tendencies in this stuff, and the (seemingly) religious aspects of the Israel-Hamas conflict aren't pretty either. If those aspects could somehow be "filtered out" (for all parties), then peace would have a better chance.

(Animated map shows how religion spread around the world (Business Insider · Jul 14, 2015 · 2m:35s))

:D

Chinese spy balloon used US internet provider to communicate its location
^{— Katie Bo Lillis · CNN · Dec 29, 2023}

Parnas confession or story-telling?

Lev Parnas didn't testify in Trump Ukraine scandal. Will he appear in Biden impeachment?
^{— Antonio Fins · Palm Beach Post · Dec 29, 2023}

(Should this be posted in "Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)"?)

Has anyone ever considered whatever good the various parties have done...? :D

Jussayin' (not that I have a particular answer myself).

Informative reads, spanning roughly a year:

Russian fighter jets are struggling in Ukraine, but Ukraine can't beat their missiles and radars, researchers say
^{— Michael Peck · Business Insider · Dec 20, 2022}
The air war over Ukraine
^{— Gerry Doyle, Mariano Zafra · Reuters · Dec 14, 2023}

Ukrainian air defense has had more success than I thought.

Again, 'no-fly zone' is simply 'starting the war with Russia', which NATO countries are unwilling to do. — Jabberwock

There's a bit more to it, but, OK, so a combined international air force can simply be ruled out. (EOS)
I have no idea what kind of S-400 stocks Russia has; these are their high-end systems as far as I know.

Justification isn't missing; will is missing — Dec 29, 2023

... which adds a bit to Kremlin impunity.

The zone would include all of Ukraine (well, it's at Kyiv's discretion). Whatever the gory details of such an initiative, I don't know.

It still would be NATO member planes bombing targets in Russia — Jabberwock

Members, sure. (Might also be members of the EU / Asian air forces, heck, send Xi an official notification-invite for that matter.) But they wouldn't bomb inside Russia (for a while, depending), except due threats to be issued for Russian missiles entering Ukrainian airspace (direct violation). Would put the invading forces into a defensive position, taking initiative from the precarious situation of being "sitting ducks with some repellent". If bombs/missiles go Russia → Ukraine, then bombs/missiles may equally go → Russia. What's an expected range for anti-fighter-bomber SAMs (not anti-ballistic/cruise-missile SAMs)? The Kremlin's actions were repeatedly condemned by the UN, in violation of international law, which they've given a(n impunity) hand-wave. Justification isn't missing; will is missing, contrary to pledges since 2022 by various parties.

But, [...] it's not likely to happen — Dec 27, 2023

It can turn into a frozen conflict if Ukraine is not tossed under the bus, otherwise all bets are off. FYI, a somewhat related discussion paper:

Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat (also CEPA · Dec 17, 2023)
^{— Ministry of Defence, Estonia · AP · Dec 2023}

Anyway, at the moment, I find North Korea worrisome.

North Korea's Kim orders military to accelerate war preparations
^{— Soo-Hyang Choi, Chris Reese, Jamie Freed, Raju Gopalakrishnan · Reuters · Dec 28, 2023}

Putin has Kim's ear. Pyongyang is amenable to the Kremlin. Could they quietly nudge North Korea to do something drastic?

It is not a big surprise. — javi2541997

What about the surprise to Xi? Maybe that shouldn't have come as a surprise; reportedly it did though.


In other news:

Takeaways from AP investigation into Russia’s cover-up of deaths caused by dam explosion in Ukraine
^{— Samya Kullab, Illia Novikov · AP · Dec 28, 2023}

BRICS FOREVER, AN END TO COLONIALISM — boagie

@boagie, are you a bot...?

'No-fly zone' effectively means 'bombing Russian SAM sites by NATO forces'. How exactly is that different from NATO starting a war with Russia? — Jabberwock

Well, it wouldn't be a NATO operation (under the auspices of NATO), except the combined force would include NATO members. More importantly, it would be a bona fides Ukraine defense operation, operating in Ukraine, irrespective of invader, within Kyiv's mandate. Wouldn't be an invasion of Russia. But, you're right, it could (incorrectly) be perceived/cast (by some) as NATO warring against Russia, which would be propagandized, especially because such a move can push invading forces out of Ukraine. That's the "wargame" set up by Kremlin strategists. Ironically perhaps, such a move could save lives, defender/Ukrainian lives at least (while limiting propagation of Kremlin authoritarianism).

But, [...] it's not likely to happen — Dec 27, 2023

Analysis: Putin promises Xi to 'fight for five years' in Ukraine
^{— Katsuji Nakazawa · Nikkei Asia · Dec 28, 2023}

↑ some of this is news to me

What many people don't seem to realize is that this, too, is democracy. The problem isn't Trump, isn't Orban, it's the very phenomenon of democracy itself. In a democracy, people defend their own interests. And this inevitably leads to tensions. A common way of coping with those tensions is to try to discredit the others. — baker

I'd go further and call this crap a cultural or human thing. Democracy has always contained the possibility of its own undoing, it just takes a majority vote of someone non- or anti-democratic.

Continuing earlier suggestions, this can work to free Ukraine (whatever links are embedded)...

• no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace officially declared by Ukraine
• Ukrainian no-fly zone (and that alone) maintained by combined international air force designated so by Kyiv
• with advance warning, hostilities toward combined air force deterred or neutralized

To my knowledge, there isn't anything against this by international law. Besides, it's Ukrainian airspace. Logistics etc demanding. Where combined air force lands is irrelevant as long as OK'd by Kyiv (it's their airspace to defend, their choice to make). None of this is proxy war or terrorism, or intended so. After some time with clearer skies, civilians can be expected to be a bit safer, though not to the extent of resuming international commercial air traffic.

• combined air force turn to hostile artillery, missiles + launchers, mortars, ammunition depots, arms transports

Combined air force not limited by minefields. Can be monitored by international observers, e.g. to ensure integrity or whatever. After some time, civilians can be expected to be safer, maybe to the extent that Ukrainians having fled can return (assuming what they call home hasn't been razed). As of typing a fifth or so of Ukraine is occupied.

• Ukrainian ground forces can better sweep minefields and move

Call it a "special defense operation" if you must (or escalation or both). Doubtful that the Kremlin can withstand such a move (cf their posturing propaganda threats). A fairly straightforward strategy. Can send a message to other would-be invaders, by the way. But, while reasonable enough, it's not likely to happen (giving fuel to things like @boethius's "drip feed" hypothesis), at least not with NATO as the combined international air force:

What is a no-fly zone, and why has NATO so far rejected calls for one over Ukraine?
^{— Teaganne Finn · NBC · Mar 7, 2022}

Incidentally, such a combined air force could ask Kyiv for additional (political democratic transparency non-aggression) guarantees. Pro et contra?

(apologies for the copy/paste)

For sure the people in Washington are evil, and the people in Brussels are ignorant. But my intention was never to exonerate Russia, rather to make clear that the West is just as bad as they, and that all this narrative spin is just window dressing for a cynical game that is about power and nothing else. — Tzeentch

Neither evil nor ignorant:

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and human rights violations.^(29)(30) Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.⁽²⁹⁾ — Revolution of Dignity (Wikipedia)

More copy/paste that pertains to the comment:

(There's a bit more at Euromaidan (Wikipedia).)

Part of this stuff was about shedding the shackles of the dominant (regressing) northern neighbor, whom you'll notice have some of those same problems the Euromaidan protests were about. Protests/assembly have more or less been stomped out by the Kremlin. The Ukrainians said "No", looked elsewhere, backed by the UN (ES-11/6 and prior), and have gone through moves addressing some of those problems in negotiation with the EU. I'd have thought it difficult in wartime, but they have made some improvements. They're trying, while being bombed. The Kremlin orders the bombing, and their trying is on another path.

A covert conspiracy for Ukraine to become a modern democracy, eh? :D "The Kremlin involvement" was of a different nature. — Dec 26, 2023

There are observations evidence references documents developments whatever — specifically related to Euromaidan — not exactly all from the US (or specifically related to the US). — Dec 26, 2023

Questionable in terms of evil/ignorant:

Contrariwise (selling and) "simply buying your postulate" converges on conspiracy theory. Using it as a premise in arguments would then be misleading. — Dec 26, 2023

Prejudice overriding example to the contrary. :/

I know why. I should follow the money. — Merkwurdichliebe

Have you followed the oil industry money?

, that's too bad. There are observations evidence references documents developments whatever — specifically related to Euromaidan — not exactly all from the US (or specifically related to the US). Contrariwise (selling and) "simply buying your postulate" converges on conspiracy theory. Using it as a premise in arguments would then be misleading.

EDIT ... Hmm this ↑ works in the direction of exonerating the Kremlin in 2014 because "conspiracy" :D

those evil damn Westerners, intruding with their democracy, "progressiveness", homosexuals, and — Mar 3, 2023

Hmm , you kept repeating your grievance with the US without responding to the Euromaidan comments, which was a response to a comment of yours. Stay on the Euromaidan track you initiated?

(I've only lived in the US ≈ half a year, mostly business related and in the past, if that's what you mean.)

I don't know how anyone can seriously deny US involvement in the Maidan coup — Tzeentch

Sure, there was "US involvement" (+ other involvement) supporting ...

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and human rights violations.^(29)(30) Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.⁽²⁹⁾ — Revolution of Dignity (Wikipedia)

(There's a bit more at Euromaidan (Wikipedia).)

Part of this stuff was about shedding the shackles of the dominant (regressing) northern neighbor, whom you'll notice have some of those same problems the Euromaidan protests were about. Protests/assembly have more or less been stomped out by the Kremlin. The Ukrainians said "No", looked elsewhere, backed by the UN (ES-11/6 and prior), and have gone through moves addressing some of those problems in negotiation with the EU. I'd have thought it difficult in wartime, but they have made some improvements. They're trying, while being bombed. The Kremlin orders the bombing, and their trying is on another path.

A covert conspiracy for Ukraine to become a modern democracy, eh? :D "The Kremlin involvement" was of a different nature.

The most direct cause of Crimea 2014 was the 2014 Revolution. It was a loss of control and influence for the Kremlin. Ukrainians explicitly started looking elsewhere, while the Kremlin circle has propagandized that Ukraine isn't a real country.

you missed our discussion about — frank

Apologies, yes, the comment assumed the US is still in NATO.

By the way, this stuff is also on-topic over here: Ukraine Crisis

, @Tzeentch is just going to recite Mearsheimer again. :)

Why do you say that? — frank

I'm just thinking that the Kremlin can't be that dumb. :) Then again, it's just conjecture on my part. I suppose they could make it look like they were attacked first?

They're more likely to inserting covert operatives/agents in such cases. — Dec 25, 2023

, it seems unlikely that Russia will attack NATO countries. They're more likely to insert covert operatives/agents in such cases.

That project sought the incorporation of Ukraine into NATO, and zero attention was paid to Russia's many objections, who spoke about red lines, fundamental security threats, etc. — Tzeentch

It's less so about NATO in particular and more so about what the Kremlin can control. That said, NATO is the most visible limit to the Kremlin's control, and hence what they talk about. Their officials have gone as far as saying that Russia is doomed for destruction unless they follow the (present) Kremlin.

You underestimate the (under)current of sentiments against the regressive authoritarian anti-democratic trajectory Putin has put Russia on. When this sort of down-slope happens to the largest country in the world, a technically developed country with resources, the danger can't be ignored (unless chosen to). As a result of the Ukrainians looking elsewhere, the Kremlin has come pretty close to portraying Kyiv as traitors (they went with Nazis).

Another one down:

Not long ago I announced my intention to run for office. On December 17, we held a meeting of the initiative group, which supported my nomination. On December 23, the Central Election Commission refused to register my initiative group.

Due to restrictions established by law, I will not be able to hold a second meeting of the initiative group, but we can nominate my candidacy from a political party. I ask you to consider the possibility of holding a congress and nominating me from the "Yabloko" party.
— Yekaterina Duntsova · Dec 23, 2023

The voiced claims of the commission for holding the meeting have no legal basis: we collected all the passport data of the participants in advance and verified them, the notary also certified that the signatures were signed with his own hands. Voting on issues on the meeting agenda took place in strict accordance with the law. Let me remind you that on the eve of the decision, the Ministry of Justice came to the notary with an "unscheduled inspection". — Yekaterina Duntsova · Dec 23, 2023

In the present system her chances would be slim anyway.