But you didn't understand it.I saw it, ... he distinctly says "well one over infinity that's zero, so you get nothing from that". — Metaphysician Undercover
Yes, but the method is integration.And, you said: your method is the same as the one on the video. — Metaphysician Undercover
But that is not the method; that is just a shortcut. The method is to apply a limit.You can insist, as fishfry stated, that this is the convention in such procedures, to take one divided by infinity as zero. — Metaphysician Undercover
Sure. But remember the bag I was talking about earlier? That bag has all of the finite numbers in it, but no infinite numbers. This is the situation here. The bag has real numbers in it; there's no such thing as an infinite real number though. Nevertheless, "unlimited" describes the extent of such numbers on the number line in the positive direction. And that ∞ symbol when used in the limit is used to represent just that... that's not a number, it's just shorthand for representing the infinite extent of the numbers in my bag."Infinite" means unlimited. — Metaphysician Undercover
Nonsense. You just made that up.When you apply limits to the unlimited, you are either contradicting or rounding off. — Metaphysician Undercover
Those things don't follow, there isn't a paradox here in the first place, and anyone trying to play the if-you're-wrong-that-means-I'm-right card should have their philosophy license revoked.If you will not accept the fact that you are rounding off, then the paradox arises due to the contradiction. — Metaphysician Undercover
If you don't understand the method, you're unqualified to critique it.that describes exactly what is the case with the volume of Gabriel's horn — Metaphysician Undercover
Wrong. The real issue is very simple... areas aren't volumes. "Paint" tricks you into thinking they are. It is very interesting to note that you never actually tried to address this explanation, just as you never commented on the extruded Koch snowflake with a bottom having the same "issue". It's no wonder you're trying to play the if-you're-wrong-that-means-I'm-right card.The "real answer" is — Metaphysician Undercover
That sounds like a confused equivocation. A 1x1x1 cube by definition is 1 cubic units of volume, but it has an infinite number of points. It's not a contradiction to say that it has an unlimited number of points but a limited volume. Gabriel's horn has an unlimited extent into the x axis in the positive direction; that means it is unlimited... in extent... along the x axis. And that's it. It doesn't mean that the horn surrounds an infinite volume, as your equivocation is apparently meant to imply, any more than the fact that the 1x1x1 cube contains an infinite number of points suggests it should have an infinite volume.To impose a limit on the infinite is to contradict. — Metaphysician Undercover
It's right there under your nose and you can't see it. You read:Saying that 1/infinity equals zero is obviously an instance of rounding off. — Metaphysician Undercover
Okay, so there's nothing wrong with rounding off. And okay, we do it all of the time. So what? It's cute and all that you're trying to "counsel" me so that I can "cope" with rounding off, but your projection of some imagined psychological trauma is a red herring. Limits still aren't rounding off.There's nothing wrong with rounding off. We do it all the time with pi, square roots, etc. That's how we get the job done by rounding off. If we couldn't round off, we couldn't get the job done in many instances. So you shouldn't be embarrassed by it. — Metaphysician Undercover
Clearly it's not rounding off, though. Clearly, you just don't understand what a limit is. And that's okay, MU. Not understanding something isn't the end of the world. It's nothing to be embarrassed about; there's a lot of knowledge in the world and not everyone knows everything. There's nothing to be embarrassed about by admitting that you don't know something. But you should be embarrassed by insisting that you understand when, clearly, you don't.You should be embarrassed by insisting that it's not an instance of rounding off, when it clearly is, though. — Metaphysician Undercover
If you know of a method to figure out the volume of that horn, — Metaphysician Undercover
At this point, it's just denial, and you're unqualified to continue this discussion with. Hardly surprising, given this is the same exact thing you failed to grasp in the other thread.Sure chief, one over infinity is zero, and that's not a matter of rounding off. — Metaphysician Undercover
Wrong. The video used limits (and integrals, which are built off of limits). Limits don't round off to zero.The volume of the horn is only determined as finite when the infinite radius is rounded off to zero at some determinable length, as is demonstrated by the YouTube video. — Metaphysician Undercover
...is just uninformed non-sense.Clearly you are using a different calculation than the one in the video then. If you know of a method to figure out the volume of that horn, which avoids rounding off the infinitely small dimeter to zero, then maybe you should present it for us. — Metaphysician Undercover
Wrong. You're only confusing yourself here. I haven't specified any rules for paint at all, much less different rules for the inside and outside. Rather, I've talked about three things:In other words you want the paint to follow different rules for the inside of the horn, than for the outside of the horn, allowing a finite volume of paint to cover an infinite surface area on the inside, but not the outside. — Metaphysician Undercover
You're kind of mixing two things in here. Imagine a mathematical bag; inside the bag, we'll put all finite numbers. All of them, mind you, but only the finite ones. There are an infinite number of numbers in this bag, but infinity isn't in the bag. So if we admit that the horn is infinitely long, we're not necessarily admitting that there's an infinity-point on the horn (a point where there's an infinitely small diameter).Obviously, if we can assume that the horn is infinitely long, with an infinitely small diameter, we can also assume that the paint can go infinitely thin. — Metaphysician Undercover
...because now you're talking about an infinitely tiny quantity multiplied by infinity. And that's still not meaningful.so whatever the layer is, it will be multiplied by infinity, — Metaphysician Undercover
I already discussed that here.Do you agree that if the horn is allowed to go infinitely thin, then the paint must play by the same rules, and be allowed to go infinitely thin as well? — Metaphysician Undercover
See? You don't even know what you're discussing!The physical properties of the paint being incompatible with an infinite horn, was already rejected as not the subject of this discussion. If we were discussing whether the molecules of paint could fit down inside an infinitely small tube, we might just as well reject the infinitely small tube as a nonsensical proposition in the first place. — Metaphysician Undercover
Andrewk does not provide a solution. The inside of the horn has a non-zero diameter with infinite extension. This means that there is an infinite surface area on the inside of that horn, to be covered with paint, just like there is on the outside. — Metaphysician Undercover
I don't see how this is relevant. Are you forgetting that it's infinitely long? — Metaphysician Undercover
That is what we're discussing. You made a claim that there's some number, you call it "whatever the layer is", that you multiply by infinity. The problem is, there's only a finite portion of the horn that can fit "whatever the layer is", and there's an infinite portion of the horn too thin to have "whatever the layer is" be the thickness of "whatever the layer is". Because of this, you cannot multiply "whatever the layer is" by infinity and get anything meaningful.so whatever the layer is, it will be multiplied by infinity, — Metaphysician Undercover
You've got this backwards. I have 400 square feet of wall coated with 1/3000th of a foot of paint. How much paint is that? Well, given that the entire area is covered with a 1/3000th foot layer, we can just multiply 400 by 1/3000 and we get about 1/7.5. Now what's this you were saying about the horn?I don't see how this is relevant. Are you forgetting that it's infinitely long? — Metaphysician Undercover
...ah, yes. Tiny bit of a problem you have there, though. It doesn't matter how many times less than a layer's worth of paint you've got inside, the horn can only have an inner layer that thick if it's thick enough on the inside. And only a finite portion of the horn so qualifies. The rest of the infinite horn (the infinite portion) is too small to have an inner layer that thick. You can't just multiply your paint's thickness by infinity if it isn't covering the infinite area. So where are you getting this crazy notion that you can multiply your layer's thickness by infinity?It doesn't really matter how many time less than a layers worth of paint you're putting in there, it's infinitely long, so whatever the layer is, it will be multiplied by infinity, — Metaphysician Undercover
It depends on what you mean by paint.In terms of the so-called paradox, do you not agree that if the paint could fill the horn, then necessarily that same volume of paint paints the surface (boundary) of the horn? — tim wood
If filling the inside means the inside is painted, then there's no positive minimal thickness of paint required to paint things; i.e., paint can be 0 thick (quick proof; assume there is such a thickness t... then if you go out 1/t on the horn, and toss the finite part, you're left with a horn whose insides are too thin to paint). At that point you're basically just mapping points to points, and there are plenty enough points in a tiny droplet of paint to map to the infinite surface area of the horn.Because filling the inside means the inside is painted, — tim wood
The questioning of the shape's volume is only said to be problematic because the questioner thinks that the questioner knows what he is talking about.The shape is only said to have finite volume because of the method employed to determine the volume. — Metaphysician Undercover
The method makes no such assumption.As explained above, this method assumes a point where the radius of the shape is zero. Therefore this method contradicts the premise of the problem, which states that the horn continues infinitely without reaching a zero radius. — Metaphysician Undercover
So? Areas have no volume. The paint analogy tricks you into thinking they at least relate when, in fact, they don't. A cubic foot of paint is roughly 7.5 gallons. A gallon of paint can paint about 400 square feet of wall; thus our cubic foot can paint about 3000 square feet of wall. Such paint has a specific layer width of 1/3000 feet. The intuitive equating of a particular area of paint to a particular volume requires such a specific nonzero layer; in the case of actual paint, 1/3000 feet thick layer.Andrewk does not provide a solution. The inside of the horn has a non-zero diameter with infinite extension. This means that there is an infinite surface area on the inside of that horn, to be covered with paint, just like there is on the outside. — Metaphysician Undercover
The physical properties are implied by the intuitions, so they're imported by a back door; the paradox is always phrased about paint filling versus painting the horn... that's tricking you to use your intuitions of paint to compare a volume ("filling") to an area ("painting"). You don't need a shape extending into the infinite to make this paradox "work"; you just need a finite volume/infinite area, and to be tricked into thinking areas relate to volume. The actual thickness of the surface of Gabriel's horn is 0 units, so that infinite surface area actually doesn't consume any meaningful volume at all. Comparing the infinite surface area to the finite volume is simply a false comparison.If the argument is that the thickness of the paint prevents it from going into that tiny channel, then we're just arguing physical properties, which has already been dismissed, as not what is to be discussed. — Metaphysician Undercover
No, the reason for the appearance of a paradox is that the shape has finite volume and infinite area; that those are two completely different kinds of things; and that our intuitions about paint "connect" the two. We just "know" that if we buy a gallon of paint and start painting the walls, we'll run out at some point and cover a certain area of the walls. But the reason that is, as already mentioned by @andrewk early on in this thread (and apparently severely underappreciated), is that painting areas with paint requires some thickness of paint.So, as I said this implies a zero radius and therefore closure of the horn. That's the reason for the appearance of a paradox. — Metaphysician Undercover
Pathetic ad hominem attempt. There's obviously a difference between avoiding people and vaccinating them, so either you're dense beyond reason or you're intellectually dishonest. Which leads one to wonder, what is your motivation? Might you be desperate to peddle your theories because you cannot actually show your human vacuum cleaner theory true?For those of you, like InPitzotl, that have difficulty in understanding the difference between "social distancing" and "herd immunity", — Roger Gregoire
Nope. The bottom line is this:Bottom-line — Roger Gregoire
...versus this:For the more healthy people we get to take off their masks and start social distancing full time, the faster this virus will dissipate, and the more lives we will save. — Roger Gregoire
https://youtu.be/Et_J8_x4qBs?t=604To control a germ, the goal is to get enough people {recovered and immune} and fewer people {dead} so that the germ has no susceptible people left to infect. Some people {Roger} argue we should get people into the immune bucket by just letting them get infected, and then recover, like a big global chicken pox party for Covid-19. But without a vaccine, if the only pathway to this recovered group is to get infected, that means some people are going to end up here... dead. What a vaccine does is let you jump straight from {susceptible} to {recovered and immune}, and avoid {dead}. And if we have a choice that lets us avoid death, why wouldn't we take it? — Dr. Joe Hanson
Just a quick interjection... this statement suggests to me two things: (1) a non-repetitive robot is conscious, (2) a non-repetitive robot is incredibly difficult to build. Both 1 and 2 are dubious.It will mimic me in the first minute, then start repeating itself while I adapt and change my behavior pattern. — Christoffer
Why bring it up then? We are, after all, discussing physically identical objects (p-zombies and human beings)? — TheMadFool
^^-- This. You're comparing here a "brain" and a "conscious brain". Let's backtrack:Which is simpler, a brain or a conscious brain? — TheMadFool
...this follows unless you're committing an amphiboly between 1 and 2. This for example:1. IF physicalism is true THEN p-zombies are impossible.
2. P-zombies are possible
Ergo,
3. Physicalism is false — TheMadFool
No, it's not. Your argument against physicalism only works if there's a difference that's not physical. So if there's a physical difference then your argument doesn't work. That's a truth criteria you must meet, not question begging. Since you define a p-zombie as physically indistinct, except for the consciousness, the applicability here is showing that your non-conscious entity can be attained without any physical differences.That's begging the question. — TheMadFool
Sure, but a running laptop is physically different than a laptop in sleep mode.A laptop in sleep mode is simpler of course and that actually proves the point that given a certain level of complexity, a simpler stage/state is a given. — TheMadFool
But I'm not claiming you have to show that. This was just another example.I don't have to draw the distinction between awake and asleep — TheMadFool
Understood, but, the running laptop is not merely more complex than the laptop in sleep mode... it is also physically distinct from it. And the awake human may be considered more complex than the sleeping human, but those two humans are also physically distinct. IF likewise your consciousness-as-we-understand-it human (awake) is more complex than your p-zombie (behaving exactly like an awake human being [without consciousness]), BUT the same awake human is physically distinct from the p-zombie, THEN your argument against physicalism does not work.my argument is specifically about consciousness as we understand it (awake) vs a p-zombie (behaving exactly like an awake human being). — TheMadFool
Not quite sure that works TMF. Which is simpler... a running laptop, or a laptop in sleep mode?Which is simpler, a brain or a conscious brain? Doesn't matter if it's physical or not (no petitio principii)? — TheMadFool
Or, we could practice social distancing.We can do this state by state (or maybe city by city, or community by community). For example, let's take all the immune people in Oklahoma and ship them Arizona, that way we now have 100% certainty that these immune Oklahoman's, that now are in Arizona, will not shed any virus whatsoever back into Oklahoma. — Roger Gregoire
Nonsense. Here's why.InPitzotl, you are very disingenuous. — Roger Gregoire
Again, that's a "you" problem. See below.You seem to be more interested in finding ways to insult than in giving a straight answer. — Roger Gregoire
I'd rather not. You see, your problem throughout this ordeal is that you keep assuming things. We have a real model here, so let's just use it. Keeping the other parameters the same for maximal relevance (80x25, population 500, infection radius of 5, 5 initial infections, same reference unseeded RNG), it turns out that all 20 people die when initial immunization is 333. At 334, we get our first vulnerable survivor. So the threshold is 66.8% (=333/500). That is measured, not assumed.Let's assume the herd immunity threshold valueis 60%. — Roger Gregoire
No, Roger, I don't say that; you say I say that. What I say is clearly laid out in my very post to this thread... 17 days ago at the time of this post:And you say, all we need to do is not let these immune people shed virus back into the environment, and we get the protective effect to the other 40 vulnerable people. — Roger Gregoire
Adding in vaccinations, this describes the following state transitions:For discussion purposes only, I'll oversimplify. Let's say everyone is either healthy, or vulnerable. I'll grant 1 and 2 literally; vulnerable people who get sick die, and healthy people who get sick become immune. Unstated, for simplicity, let's presume that everyone who is vaccinated becomes immune.
But here's how the mechanics work. Everyone starts out uninfected, call that state (A). They can become infected, state (B), if exposed to a carrier. A carrier is essentially another person in state (B). Then if the person is healthy, they go to state (C1), immune. If they are vulnerable, they go to state (C2), dead. So in these terms we want to minimize the number of people in state (C2), death by covid. — InPitzotl
They don't. Every vulnerable person actually factually dies in the 60% scenario. But in the 66.8% scenario, exactly one vulnerable person survives. That one person survived in the 66.8% scenario because that one person was not in the extended infection range of any of the initial 5 sick people.So now I ask -- how do these 60 statues provide protection over the 40 vulnerable people in the community? — Roger Gregoire
This is not "in other words" Roger; it's an entirely different question. If that virus made its way to Ralph, Ralph's a goner. Likewise, in principle, Ralph could still die from other paths as well; Ralph is simply protected along this particular vector path. But as it happens in practice, in the 66.8% scenario, there are no vector paths that could lead to Roger from anywhere because every individual within 5 squares of Ralph is immune (including wrap-around).In other words, if a virus found its way into this community of now 100% vulnerable people, what would protect them? — Roger Gregoire
Told ya! But sorry, the answer doesn't change just because you can't understand it. Here is the actual 66.8% run without the immune people per your question.Without immune people in the mix, what is protecting them???? — Roger Gregoire
Yes. There's the picture....and your answer is "distance"? — Roger Gregoire
What statue? You could put your red herring anywhere you want; including where Ollie is....do we need to distance these statues to a remote island? — Roger Gregoire
It's not magic. Ralph doesn't get sick because his environment is never contaminated because no infected person contaminates it. By contrast, in the similar other-universe scenario of 66.6%, Ralph died because he got infected because Olley got infected and contaminated his environment, and Ralph is in said environment. I'm sorry you don't like the answer, but that's a precisely accurate description of exactly what you asked, so this is still just a "you" problem....will that then magically protect the 40 vulnerable people? — Roger Gregoire
Done! I used the real model (the program), related it to my initial post, computed the exact herd immunity threshold you asked about, found the critical survivor, named him (Ralph); found the initial vector, named him (Paul); found the critical immunized guy defining the threshold, named him (Olley); named the guy one step upstream (Smith), showed you a picture of the evolution steps, drew giant orange arrows to Olley for you, drew giant red arrows to Ralph for you, reran the scenario by removing the vulnerable people, showed the same overlay of the vector paths for you, with the same giant red arrow to Ralph, and an orange arrow drawn to the empty square Olley would have been on, actually discovered to my total lack of surprise that Ralph still survived, and explained exactly why this exact survivor survived in 66.8% and not in 66.6%, in practice, in terms of the same model I've been explaining to you since the first post... this is the same concept of herd immunity you claimed was impossible, explained to the last dotted i and crossed t.I think you need to look in the mirror, and take a closer look at your own words: — Roger Gregoire
What does "again, our discussion is done" mean?So again, our discussion is done, as I prefer not to debate with dishonest, disingenuous people. — Roger Gregoire
The following is based on a model that just makes sense to me. For discussion purposes I'll make a distinction between "physical" continuity and "identity" continuity. By analogy, suppose I just plant an acorn and it grows up to be a tree. Then there's a thing I mean to be describing by claiming that the acorn grew up to be a tree... that thing is physical continuity. Factually speaking, acorns can become trees; they don't for example become tigers. Were I to plant an acorn, I should not be horribly surprised if it didn't sprout. Neither should I be surprised if it grew up to be a tree. But I should be horribly shocked if it sprouted to become a tiger, because that just doesn't happen. So we might speculate about the nature of time, what change means, and what physical continuity means, and there are good questions there to ponder for all of these, but we shouldn't forget that whatever answers we come up with, acorns can grow into trees. However we account for that would be an example of physical continuity.Do you exist more than a moment? Are you a different person every day? Will your subjective experience continue after your death? What are the theories of mind that match with Closed Individualism? — Philosophuser
Per the above model, there is an identity staring out of the undestroyed Terran body's eyes, and there is a distinct identity staring out of the Martian replica's eyes. But both identities have equal claims to being the guy who was standing in line for the teleporter five minutes before entering. This relies more on the identity continuity model above than any particular view of time; one can easily believe time to be an illusion, but so long as you can account for the apparent illusion (e.g., that the physical structure of the block is such that traces through time-like directions within this sliver of the universe follow causation-like rules), the entire model of identity can fit into that account.This is often discussed with the Teleporter Paradox: if a machine scan your body, destroy it and create an exact replica with other atoms in Mars, is he you, or another person? — Philosophuser
Well to be more precise... the atoms are just a substrate... as you noted, the body's eventually replaced like a Ship of Theseus. The most we can say under a materialist premise is that the pattern of atoms implement points of view. After death, there presumably being neither a point of view nor a conscious mind that could remember being a person, there would be no sense in which you could say there's an identity or continuation of one.After your death, since all of your experiences are just based on atoms, — Philosophuser
...hopefully this model explains such a theory. The consciousness being a particular one is related to it having a particular point of view; and it's being "the same" is related to its ability to remember having one.Perhaps, if consciousness emerge from some particular arrangement of atoms, the brain as a whole is conscious and his activity just make it feel one way or another, allowing you to have always the same consciousness all your life, because what matters is the sistem as a whole. What are the theories about the consciousness that allow you being always the "same", and stop feeling at death? — Philosophuser
That sounds like a "you" problem to me.Sorry InPitzotl, this (your reply) comes across as a creative "non-answer" to me. — Roger Gregoire
Wrong. The answer, which has been given to you before, only needs a single word: Distance.Its just a simple question. A simple sentence is all thats needed, — Roger Gregoire
Nope. If you understood what you were talking about, you would understand how the image I showed you directly answers your question. ...and not only answers it, but shows exactly how this protection is attained.I don't need a micro detailed account. — Roger Gregoire
LOL! But Roger, the micro detailed account I'm giving shows a complete, exhaustive understanding of why you're wrong. I'm not only telling you that you're wrong, and definitely not just repeating some "Them" like "The Evil Corporate Media"... I'm telling you why you're wrong, showing you precisely where, writing programs simulating it, showing you the full program, showing you how the program works, and showing you exactly what steps over time lead to the final results. What more could you possibly ask for as a criteria for knowing how this works?Either you know how a community of 100% vulnerable can be protected (in the absence of immune people) or you don't. — Roger Gregoire
No, Roger, this one of those "my opinion versus your opinion" things that isn't really about opinions.We obviously disagree over the CDC's usage of "person-to-person" in their definition of herd immunity. — Roger Gregoire
We can't talk strategy before you understand the basic concepts. And you don't understand the concepts.Okay, so what about this, how do we provide protection to vulnerable people if there are no healthy people in the same environment? — Roger Gregoire
Let me explain it this way. Here's the final state of 95% scenario again:But if you could, then what would be left to provide the protective effect to the vulnerable? — Roger Gregoire
No, it's an example of a straw man.This is an example of bad science (...science that disregards logic). — Roger Gregoire
Person to person does not mean respiratory systems are directly connected. A person to person conversation doesn't mean sticking your tongue in someone's ear.People's respiratory systems are NOT directly connected to one another. — Roger Gregoire
Changes what? 5 isn't equal to 0.This is an IMPORTANT distinction that changes the mathematics involved in calculating probabilities and risk. — Roger Gregoire
Nope, because they do not mean "respiratory systems are directly connected to one another".Yes, if they claim that the virus transmits "person-to-person", then logically, they are wrong. — Roger Gregoire
Making an "appeal-to-authority" (a logical fallacy) is an irrational means of arguing; has no logical basis. — Roger Gregoire
See the problem?And it's not just me saying this, but virtually all medical experts, scientists, and health agencies (e.g. CDC, etc) also say this. — Roger Gregoire
Stop right there. This is a mis-attribution. Here's the full text as it appeared in my post:Community immunity: A situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. — InPitzotl
...note that this comes from the the CDC glossary on the CDC website.Community immunity: A situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and those with chronic illnesses) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community. Also known as herd immunity. — CDC Glossary
The phrase "person to person" does not mean direct contact.This is Non-Truth #1. ... People's respiratory systems are NOT directly connected to one anther's. — Roger Gregoire
It changes nothing. The infection radius in the scenarios shown is 5, not zero as "directly connected to one anther's[sic]" implies.This is an IMPORTANT distinction that changes the mathematics involved in calculating probabilities and risk. — Roger Gregoire
No, I said this:There was no "speculation" on my part. You were the one that said it was "based on breaking vectors", not me. — Roger Gregoire
The program isn't based on breaking vectors. The effect it demonstrates is based on breaking vectors. Since you're a bit slow on the uptake, here's what everyone except for you understands.Well, there is indeed a real protective effect demonstrated by this program based on breaking vectors. — InPitzotl
The thing you refuted in this very post, which is the definition of herd immunity given by the CDC, can be used to explain why the 95% scenario run of this specific program actually in practice resulted in less dead people than the 80% scenario run of this specific program. The program model is complete and understood; it definitely does irrefutably work this way. As I said before, you're trying to wring blood from a stone here.This is not what creates the "protective effect" of herd immunity. — Roger Gregoire
You could.If this were true, then we could simply replace these healthy immune people with statues or rocks, — Roger Gregoire
"Herd immunity" is just a term for something. The CDC glossary defines what that term is. That description is modeled by the program which does indeed work this way.But herd immunity does not work that way. — Roger Gregoire
Let's review, again:Your program only shows the protective effects of social distancing, not herd immunity. — Roger Gregoire
My program runs until simulated eradication. 80%/95% scenarios are "sufficient proportion of a population" being immune (underlined). The spread from person to person is likely (ref next underlines) in proportion to the likelihood that potential persons are in the extended infection range (ref prior post). Those protections are area dependent, not vaccine dependent, so "even individuals not vaccinated" are offered protection, "because the disease has little opportunity to spread" to the areas they are in.Community immunity: A situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and those with chronic illnesses) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community. Also known as herd immunity. — CDC Glossary
It's really weird that you speculate about what the program might be doing, always incorrectly, when the program was intentionally made publicly available to you. I'm hiding exactly nothing; and you're just guessing incorrectly about what you can just see in a link. For your benefit, here are the links again:if your program is indeed based on "breaking vectors", then it is based on "social distancing" which is just the opposite of herd immunity. — Roger Gregoire
Roger, I wrote a program demonstrating the effect. I pasted pieces of the program here. I showed you a running video. You started crazily asserting that my program "assumed" things. But you didn't actually critique the actual program.Please describe, or give an illustration (like my mosquito illustration) on how "breaking vectors" magically creates a "protective effect". You will see that it actually makes things worse. If you remove healthy people far away from vulnerable people, vulnerable people die faster, are less protected. — Roger Gregoire
Wrong. The probability is ; expected dead is approximately 6.513 on average. Here's a simulation:Imagine 10 people inside a room with 10 mosquitos flying about. Further imagine that 0 (none) of these people are healthy (a mosquito bite does not bother them) and all 10 people are vulnerable, whereas a mosquito bite would result in a severe reaction and certain death. So the odds of a vulnerable person dying from a mosquito bite in this scenario is 100% (10 mosquitos / 10 total people) which equals 10 dead people. — Roger Gregoire
#include <random> #include <iostream> struct Person { unsigned int times_bit; Person() : times_bit(0) {} }; int main() { std::mt19937 rng; std::uniform_int_distribution<unsigned> bite(0, 9); unsigned times_all_bit = 0; unsigned each_bit[10] = {0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0}; unsigned cumulative_mortality = 0; for (unsigned n=0; n<10000; ++n) { // Nobody bit yet this run Person people[10]; // 10 mosquitos bite for (unsigned mosquito=0; mosquito<10; ++mosquito) { ++people[bite(rng)].times_bit; } // Count the dead this round unsigned num_dead=0; for (unsigned p=0; p<10; ++p) { if (people[p].times_bit>0) { ++num_dead; } } // Add to times_all_bit if everyone was bit if (num_dead==10) ++times_all_bit; // Add number dead to cumulative mortality cumulative_mortality += num_dead; // Accumulate number of times each person was bit for (unsigned e=0; e<10; ++e) if (people[e].times_bit>0) ++each_bit[e]; } std::cout << "Out of 10000 runs, everyone was bit in " << times_all_bit << ".\n"; std::cout << "Average deaths per round is " << (cumulative_mortality/10000.0) << ".\n"; std::cout << "Breakdown of each bit:\n"; for (unsigned p=0; p<10; ++p) { std::cout << " person " << (p+1) << " bit in " << each_bit[p] << " runs\n"; } }
Out of 10000 runs, everyone was bit in 3. Average deaths per round is 6.5107. Breakdown of each bit: person 1 bit in 6593 runs person 2 bit in 6415 runs person 3 bit in 6548 runs person 4 bit in 6491 runs person 5 bit in 6446 runs person 6 bit in 6533 runs person 7 bit in 6594 runs person 8 bit in 6491 runs person 9 bit in 6494 runs person 10 bit in 6502 runs
Making stuff up isn't a valid epistemic approach.People with healthy immune systems develop antibodies, which in most cases, provides better protection than does vaccination. — Roger Gregoire
I'm afraid you have it backwards Roger:I challenge you to prove me wrong. — Roger Gregoire
What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. — Hitchen's razor
I suggest that your frustration is that I don't agree with something you think is obvious. But I suggest you're not thinking about the situation because you're too busy defending what you think is obvious to realize what's actually relevant, and this affects your original premise because it makes your conclusions irrelevant while it leaves you the mistaken belief that it's obvious....wow. — Roger Gregoire
We're going in circles. This is the flaw in your theory that makes this ridiculous:HERE ARE MY SPECIFIC WORDS below. — Roger Gregoire
...your theory seems to assume that the vast majority of viruses in an environment find themselves inside human bodies in 7 days. I question that assumption. — InPitzotl
...and those are your specific words....an irrelevant red herring. — Roger Gregoire
Joe, John are in the same environment if they are in a kitchen. John cannot eat any pie that Joe eats. But if there are 10 pies and Joe and John together can only eat 5, division is inappropriate.Assuming Joe, John and the pie are all together in the same environment (e.g. John's kitchen). -- For every slice of the pie that Joe eats, means that there is one less slice that John can eat. — Roger Gregoire
Nope. It's a pretty direct interpretation of your words.Firstly, you seem to be fabricating a delusional interpretation of my words. — Roger Gregoire
Of course it could be true that we need to divide. But you just ruled out what would make that appropriate. Let's be explicit about what you ruled out:And secondly, this is not necessarily ridiculous — Roger Gregoire
...your theory seems to assume that the vast majority of viruses in an environment find themselves inside human bodies in 7 days. I question that assumption. — InPitzotl
You accused me of advancing an irrelevant red herring here. I dispute that. But if this were an irrelevant red herring, it shouldn't affect things. So let's start with the presumption that the vast majority of available resources for consumption is not consumed....an irrelevant red herring. — Roger Gregoire
But there's only a milk shortage if you consume the vast majority of milk in the area.And secondly, this is not necessarily ridiculous (i.e. thousands of people drinking milk could cause a milk shortage, thereby resulting in no milk in your fridge). — Roger Gregoire
But it's actually your conditions that are irrelevant. If Joe and John don't consume the vast majority of pies in the kitchen, division is inappropriate. Same environment isn't really relevant; and it's always true that John cannot eat a pie Joe eats. If Joe can eat 2 pies, John can eat 3 pies, but there are 10 pies in the kitchen, what are you going to divide what by?Assuming Joe, John and the pie are all together in the same environment (e.g. John's kitchen). -- For every slice of the pie that Joe eats, means that there is one less slice that John can eat. — Roger Gregoire
You still didn't give an example.Of course you are (see a). — Bartricks
In the example I gave, a desire not to be checkmated, my understanding of the rules, and my ability to model the consequences of my actions.And what are you following when you reason, if not some kind of directive? — Bartricks
Why did you bother with the thread then?As for b, I have my reasons. — Bartricks
I'm having problems understanding whichever of these things are true:Are you slow? The. Imperatives. Of. Reason. See argument above. — Bartricks
Let's say I'm playing chess. I "ought" to avoid moving my knight, because that can lead to a checkmate. I "ought" to consider other moves that improve my position. Those oughts are prescriptive; they are a consequence of a teleos in my own human mind... the desire to win... and the ways in which the artificial laws of chess unfold on the board. That I ought not move my knight does not require an omniscient mind commanding that this be the case. All it requires is that there is a move by my opponent that can checkmate me if I do so.If you 'ought' to draw the conclusion, then you are bid draw it - that's what the oughtness 'is'. — Bartricks
Give an example of an imperative of reason that requires an omnipotent mind.The imperatives of Reason are imperatives (hence the name). — Bartricks
Nope. I'm denying that someone must be commanding the laws I use to do so.So you are denying that you ought to draw the conclusion of a valid argument? — Bartricks
Certainly not instructions someone gave me in English. Except in those cases where they did, but in all such cases those were simply minds of one or more other humans. Imperatives and instructions are things humans convey to each other using language.And what are you following when you reason, if not some kind of directive? — Bartricks
And I'm questioning whether laws of reasoning are imperatives.But I am clearly referring to the imperatives themselves. — Bartricks
That was a prescription given in a language. Reason is surely descriptive.Sorry, but it did. You accept, I take it, that I did what I did: I, a mind, issued an instruction to you. — Bartricks
What else?As for your example, it's an example of something else. — Bartricks
There's quite a bit of sapience required to relate the visual experience to such things as colors sticking out of a box and their spatial relations.For what you describe is a visual experience causing in you a belief, without any inferential activity on your part. — Bartricks
Sorry, but you didn't answer my question. That's a nice hypothetical example of your issuing a prescriptive imperative using the English language to another sentient entity who speaks English over a virtual medium via text, but how does a mind create a law of reason?Here's a law of Bartricks: if you have money, give me money.. — Bartricks
That does not follow. I believe there is a yellow crayon in this box sticking out just to the left of an orange crayon, and I use reasoning to believe it, but it's not clear that I followed an instruction. I tend to think I just looked at the box.Well, clearly one of the things he wants is for us to do and believe things, hence the instructions of Reason exist. — Bartricks
Well for example if I divide two numbers in my head, I might carry out the operations to figure out what the quotient is. An omniscient entity would presumably simply know; so there's no point doing the thinking. If I were playing chess, I might plan ahead. But again, an omniscient entity would presumably just know all moves, so there's no point in thinking. It's easy to say there's an all knowing mind, but such a thing is so alien to how minds work, it's questionable whether or not it even is one.As for it being pointless for him to think - I don't see how you get to that conclusion. — Bartricks
The mind not limited by reason could command reason and irrationality both. You would have no way of describing by reason any violation of reason commanded by this entity. Could this mind command that 1+1=3? And if so, how can you be sure he didn't? Pretty sure the only way you could be sure such a mind only commands reason is by applying a doctrine, and if you're applying doctrines you're not applying reason.Yes it can. See above. I am not bound by what I say, but I can nevertheless tell people about myself. Likewise for Reason. Think it through!! — Bartricks
How does a mind create laws of reason?If there are laws of Reason, then there is a mind whose laws they are — Bartricks
What does an omniscient mind do? It would be pointless for example for such a thing to think.The mind whose laws are the laws of Reason is omniscient — Bartricks
A mind not bound by the laws of reason cannot be reasoned about.The mind whose instructions and commands constitute the laws of Reason would not be bound by those laws, as they have the power over their content. — Bartricks
Of course, but that's hardly a gotcha. I ate an egg sandwich this morning. That egg I ate is one less egg you "could have" eaten. But I somehow doubt there's any reasonable way you could have eaten that egg had I not eaten it. If I drink a glass of milk, that's one less glass of milk that you could drink. But that doesn't mean there's any less milk in the container in your fridge. If a raindrop lands on me, that's one less raindrop that could land on you. But that doesn't mean if we both walk into the rain we get half as wet.InPitzotl, can you grasp this concept? Yes or No? — Roger Gregoire
Sounds very passive-aggressive. Facts are what they are; whatever points you imagined I was making before the end is just what you projected. The point is that you actually think the viruses are on the scale of humans. I'd like to know why. But you didn't comment on that... instead, you just continued onto another arbitrary claim. The only comment you made regarding this appreciation of scale was a passive aggressive accusation that I was "almost" being dishonest; you seemed to have completely failed to grasp the proportionality of the entities you're trying to talk about.I'm glad you were honest enough to end with this paragraph and not continue to falsely equate all the viruses in mankind with this one virus that we call covid-19. — Roger Gregoire
No. The vast majority simply don't affect humans. It has nothing to do with herd immunity.Herd immunity has been natures way of protecting mankind from all these viruses throughout history. — Roger Gregoire
Argument from repetition.We are intentionally shielding our healthy population from protecting our vulnerable population. — Roger Gregoire
Then how do you explain these news clippings that 5 minutes of googling dredged up?Never in the history of mankind have we did this, and is why we are losing this battle with covid.