So we can't rely on Russian mission statements. It's hard to tell what they're trying to accomplish from observing them. I don't think it's supposed to be this complicated.

Let's make some predictions, Baden. I predict in a month's time Russia will be just as stymied as they are now and will control no Ukrainian cities, as befitting the military disaster the Russians are experiencing. If you think everything is going so swimmingly, Where do you predict the Russians will be in a month's time?

There is information out there if you dig but, yes, it's not easy to know their intentions; what they say means almost nothing because they're happy to lie to misdirect. My hope is that China is putting some pressure on them to gradually deescalate and they might accept some kind of autonomy deal on the Donbass that stops short of full independence. Europe might also put some background pressure on Zelensky to concede he's more or less lost that region to Russian puppet control.

the first two of these scenarios are disastrous for Ukraine and the third only a win if the Russians make significant compromises. So, your outlook appears no more optimistic than mine. — Baden

I'm not trying to be optimistic, i'm trying to keep my analysis fact-based. The Russians have evidently failed in their objectives so far, with the forces and weapons they have engaged. If they now start to lose ground, they might try other weapons. We'll see.

Conscription would only help after a while because you have to equip and train this new cannon fodder first.

How I see it playing out is as above: Russian puppet control of Donbass and Ukraine accepting neutral status. The question is how long it takes. As far as I'm concerned, the sooner the better but that is the difficult one to judge.

My hope is that China is putting some pressure on them to gradually deescalate — Baden

I think they're going in the opposite direction. They're reaching out to countries who might want to create an anti-NATO alliance. This is how it becomes a global conflict. If you want to see the citation on that I'll look for it.

Europe might also put some background pressure on Zelensky to concede he's more or less lost that region to Russian puppet control. — Baden

I think Biden is actually leading the team right now and he wants to bruise Putin.

I would also love to see this end quickly, but the stars are saying it's going to continue and it has the potential to spread. This is partly about prying American fingers off global control.

And I've thought it through: no, this is not happening because of previous American aggression. That's bullshit. It's happening because the US is obviously in decline.

It's also plausible. Anyway, if you have a source on that, I'll read it, yes.

Well, now I can't find it, so I guess consider it bullshit until I do.

FYI: Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Rambling on from NATO membership, another of Putin's demands — Donetsk and Luhansk becoming two independent states — seems more contentious. In that respect, if that was to proceed, I'm thinking that all Ukrainians throughout be allowed to freely attain citizenship either way (and relocate when they can, without coercion obstruction reprisals threats or whatever, I mean). After all, they're the people on the ground here, not Londoners and Muscovites. Un/reasonable?

On a related note, I think that some of the commenters (and I don't entirely absolve myself) tend to hold official Russian rhetoric to a standard of truthfulness, rationality and consistency to which it does not hold itself. — SophistiCat

I'm admittedly guilty.

I'm sure it'll show up. Meanwhile, it looks like Russia's response to Biden's fiery rhetoric in Poland has been to unleash some real fire and fury on Lviv.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60887974

"Lviv's mayor, Andriy Sadoviy, said that "with today's blows, the aggressor sends greetings to President Biden"

Ukraine would want Crimea back, or at least part of it, IMO.

Another possible future, if Putin can't manage to extract himself and his men from this situation before a month or two, remains a partial collapse of the Russians forces on some theaters. Putin's position as generalissimo would then seem compromised.

Instructive:


"You may not humiliate a nation and think it will have no consequences."

Here it is.

:up:

Behind enemy lines:

:fire: Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine (Mar 24, 2022)

Tightening things up:

:zip: Putin Signs Law On Jail Terms For 'Fake' News On State Actions Abroad (Mar 25, 2022)

In that respect, if that was to proceed, I'm thinking that all Ukrainians throughout be allowed to freely attain citizenship either way (and relocate when they can, without coercion obstruction reprisals threats or whatever, I mean). — jorndoe

Over one and a half million people have fled the area, the majority to other parts in Ukraine, but also hundreds of thousands have fled into Russia. Before Russia's assault happened, many (usually women and children) were evacuated from Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia. Already in 2019 Putin declared that all citizens in Donetsk and Luhansk can get Russian citizenship. About 720 000 have now got Russian citizenship. Now it seems to be a higher number:

(DW) In 2019, Russia began to distribute Russian passports to the area's inhabitants. According to the latest reports, some 800,000 eastern Ukrainians are said to have Russian citizenship — an estimated 15 to 25% of the population, although exact figures are hard to obtain. This is the central argument behind the Kremlin's recognition of the independence of the separatist regions.

The idea of people freely choosing their citizenship either way in a warzone is unrealistic.

Have you noticed that the 20th Century started with a pandemic and a world war?

World war continued with a pandemic, yes, that's the history.

It's possible it could happen again, but it in the same order.

A bit more analysis on whether the failure to advance further on Kyiv was a disaster or intentional or something in between. — Baden

Do notice that there obviously was a intelligence gaffe, which Putin likely hasn't been all too happy. The most likely reason is that Putin has had in his inner circle fellow minded people and anyone thinking that this "special military operation" wouldn't be a great idea was sidetracked. The three intelligence services (SVR, the FSB, which handles the near abroad, and the GRU) likely did give them intelligence that they wanted to hear. After all, the 2014 invasion had worked splendidly, hence the idea that it could continue similarly could be something that you could sell in the Kremlin. It's not hard to find such examples of this, when one remembers the way how the American intelligence services reacted to the wishes of the neocon White House before the invasion of Iraq.

Vladimir Putin has placed the head of the FSB's foreign service and his deputy under house arrest after blaming them for intelligence failings that saw his army handed a series of embarrassing defeats in Ukraine, it has been claimed.

Andrey Soldatov, a respected author on the Russian secret services, said sources inside the FSB told him that Sergey Beseda, 68, head of the agency's foreign service, has been placed under arrest on Putin's orders.

Also arrested is Anatoly Bolyukh, Beseda's deputy, according to Soldatov, who said Putin is 'truly unhappy' with the agency - which he ran before becoming president.

The fifth department of the FSB (Operational Information and International Relations), ran the "near abroad" and was responsible for missions in Ukraine, has been said to been raided by the both FSO, Federal Protective Service of the Russian Federation, Putin’s own security service.

But of course now this is old news and the reality now is that Putin might really be thinking of looking at just Donbas and the landbridge to Crimea. The question is what Ukrainians think about it and just how much Putin is willing to fight for. He hasn't lost a war yet, so it might be hard for him.

I personally fear that the war will just continue for far longer even if a conclusion could be made earlier.

"You may not humiliate a nation and think it will have no consequences." — Baden

I guess he was speaking on behalf of the Soviet Union. Wasn't also Ukraine a large part of it, or is just the Russian federation the only successor state of the Union? Just asking..

It's possible it could happen again, but it in the same order. — frank

Well, let's remember that before the Great War that started in 1914, the last huge European war were the Napoleonic wars. And that had been ages ago and there wasn't any historical memory of such total war as the World Wars we have now. And there were no nuclear weapons.

We have a totally different collective memory of World War 1 and it's continuation, WW2 and at least those that have been born during the Cold War remember quite well the scare of WW3 during the Cold War. Hence such sleepwalking into a bigger war isn't likely in my view as happened in the summer of 1914. It is already quite evident from the timid way that the US and NATO act in the support of Ukraine.

(In 1914, they were enthusiastic about the war, as can be seen in the pictures...)

There's more of a sense of dread now? I'm guessing Russians feel that way, but I think there are a lot of young Chinese who feel the opposite: they want nuclear war. They've turned the US into an image of what keeps them down (when the opposite is actually true).

Anyway, I hope you're right. I don't want war at all.

The Left vs Vlad Putin. How can Putin win. The last military battle to be fought by conservatism is being fought. He may win the battle but not the war. Putin is mortal after all whereas the 'X' Chromosome that the Left represents will be around as long as the last human.

Have you noticed that the 20th Century started with a pandemic and a world war? — frank

Have you noticed people have not killing in each other en masse, not making the commitment not to do so?

Militarism and Development in Underdeveloped Societies
Peter B. Mayer, in Encyclopedia of Violence, Peace, & Conflict (Second Edition), 2008

Militarism is a word to which many different meanings are attached. The archetypal image of militarism is the equestrian figure of a ruler dressed in military costume, the Man on Horseback, the heroic, martial savior of the nation. Most commonly, militarism refers to predominance – political, economic, or social – of the military in government or society. Thus Prussia in the nineteenth century and Japan in the late nineteenth and first half of the twentieth century – both societies in which military ideas and ideology were predominant, the military class was extremely influential, and conscription was widespread – are often characterized by the term ‘militarism’.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/militarism

President George W. Bush got on with him, but so did President Clinton, I think. The mad swings of the pendulum from Democratic to Republican. From Left to Right.

Watching closely.

I am assuming he is a good Vlad.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/03/23/coaltion-donor-whitehaven-coal-governments-donation-ukraine/

I'll say it again: dead Ukranians are good for business (@Banno) -

In the past five years, Whitehaven has handed $98,000 to the federal Liberal Party. They only donate to the Liberals — none of this give-to-both-sides stuff used by so many companies to get in the door of fundraisers. And for that sum, less than $100,000, Whitehaven just got an almighty pay-off.

Scott Morrison is paying Whitehaven an estimated $31 million for Australia’s “donation” of 70,000 tonnes of coal to Ukraine. That will last one generator a few days tops, so won’t do much for the brave people battling the Russian army. But it will do an awful lot for Whitehaven: its $98,000 investment is paying off 316-fold.

Capitalism is a wonder to behold.

dead Ukranians are good for business — StreetlightX

So is Cynicism

Vladimir Putin has placed the head of the FSB's foreign service and his deputy under house arrest after blaming them for intelligence failings that saw his army handed a series of embarrassing defeats in Ukraine, it has been claimed.

Andrey Soldatov, a respected author on the Russian secret services, said sources inside the FSB told him that Sergey Beseda, 68, head of the agency's foreign service, has been placed under arrest on Putin's orders.

Also arrested is Anatoly Bolyukh, Beseda's deputy, according to Soldatov, who said Putin is 'truly unhappy' with the agency - which he ran before becoming president.

I think Vlad is right to be nervous. It may be more serious than the FSB having just erred in their assessment.

The US had access to tiptop intel prior to the war about what was planned (even though few believed their predictions of an all out aggression, even in Ukraine). Possibly they were tipped from the FSB (or another source). And two weeks ago the Ukrainian side said they fought back a Wagner force aiming to kill Zelensky, thank to tips coming directly from the FSB.

It's not just a case of passing info to the enemy for the money, I think. It looks more likely that someone in the FSB didn't like the idea of invading Ukraine at all, and decided that for the best interest of the nation, Mr Putin's war in Ukraine had to fail.

Perhaps so that Mr Putin would be replaced by somebody nicer.

The actions and inactions of Belarus could also be interpreted this way: does Lukachenko want Putin to succeed in Ukraine, or does he want him to fail? If he wants him to succeed, why hasn't Belarus entered the war yet?

President George W. Bush got on with him, but so did President Clinton, I think. The mad swings of the pendulum from Democratic to Republican. From Left to Right.

Watching closely.

I am assuming he is a good Vlad. — FreeEmotion

Putin is a response to Western society's shift to the left, in this instance its influence on European nations. The modern media a vector for emotion can't but help depicting patriarchs as bad guys. When Putin is gone the Left will be all conquering its ultimate victory and goal symbolized with the elimination of the last male on earth. The 'x' chromosomes attempt to eliminate the mutant 'Y' complete.