I would say a reasonable assumption is information. It’s certainly something we can reason from.
No it doesn’t contain information about humanity’s demise. It’s the mathematical reasoning that shows we’re most likely close to that demise. — AJJ
The probability does change if you divide the rooms into groups. If I say you’re either in rooms 1 or 2 or in any of the rest, then it’s most likely you’re in the second “any of the rest” group. — AJJ
But if I’m blindfolded and asked which one colour you’ve given me then I’m going to say blue. I can’t say “not blue”, because I’ve been asked to pick a particular colour. — AJJ
Mathematical reasoning, being a deductive process, cannot generate information though. — Echarmion
If those are the groups you are given by some outside source. But if no outside source provides you with any groupings, and you're just standing alone in a room, you cannot reason yourself into rooms 3 to 100 by arbitrarily deciding on these groups. Given arbitrary groups, one can make any sequence of rooms the most likely one. No such thought experiment tells you where you actually are though. — Echarmion
It's even worse when, as is the case with future generations, you don't even know how many rooms there are. If you simply know there are n rooms and you are in one of them, there is no way to tell what number your room is. Yet the logic of the "doomsday argument" would have you believe that you can. — Echarmion
What you’re actually saying is you have more chance of being within generations 1-4. What you actually have to do is pick one; the one most likely for you to be in. — AJJ
Well sure, I guess reasoning doesn’t generate information, but it does discover it. — AJJ
The groups we’re using in the thought experiment are real though: Generations, with the assumption that each is larger than the last, which so far has actually been the case. — AJJ
And if you're asked to pick a generation then, yes, you should say the last generation -- although you're more likely to be wrong than right, and so if you're asked if you're more likely in the last generation than not in the last generation then you should say not in the last generation. — Michael
So let's set up a proper thought experiment: The entire human population that will ever have lived is grouped into 100 hotel rooms. Every room represents the same amount of time between humanity's evolution and it's demise, but you don't know how long that is. Every room is an incredibly vast extradimensional space, and it is completely dark, so you don't know how many other people are in your room and you have no way of communicating with them.
Now a voice tells you that you will go to heaven if you can guess which room you're in. You can choose any range of 5 rooms as your guess, as long as you're in any one of them, you win. Which range do you choose? — Echarmion
You seem to be saying you’re more likely to be in a generation other than the one you’re in. — AJJ
Once you’re in a generation there is no chance you’re in the other four. So the question is which particular generation is yours, and the best answer is “the last one”.
So are you claiming that information concerning the timing of the end of humanity is encoded in a) the fact that humans exist right now and b) the assumption that the living human population will be highest shortly before it's demise? — Echarmion
Generations aren't real. they are more or less arbitrary groupings of people who were born in the same time period. But regardless, the generations are the rooms in the hotel. You want to know which room you're in. — Echarmion
So let's set up a proper thought experiment: The entire human population that will ever have lived is grouped into 100 hotel rooms. Every room represents the same amount of time between humanity's evolution and it's demise, but you don't know how long that is. Every room is an incredibly vast extradimensional space, and it is completely dark, so you don't know how many other people are in your room and you have no way of communicating with them.
Now a voice tells you that you will go to heaven if you can guess which room you're in. You can choose any range of 5 rooms as your guess, as long as you're in any one of them, you win. Which range do you choose? — Echarmion
There's a difference between an answer being the best answer and that answer being more likely right than wrong. The best answer has < 50% chance of being right, so it's wrong to say that we're most likely in the last generation. We're most likely not in the last generation. — Michael
I haven’t said the answer is more likely right than wrong. — AJJ
Assuming population growth (and an abrupt rather than gradual end), you're more likely to win if you select the last 5 rooms (assuming the rooms are numbered according to the time period). — Michael
Whatever the last five are, because that will be the range with the most people in it. That’s assuming we go extinct quickly, but whatever the choice you’d choose a range towards the end of all the rooms. — AJJ
Yes. — AJJ
So to answer the last 5 rooms is presuming - and not proving - that humanity's demise will come relatively soon. — Echarmion
If the chances are 3-1 and you’re getting 3-1 on your money then you can bet all you want since you’ll break even. Does “best odds” not mean most likely to win? — AJJ
You’re still in check as far as I’m concerned. What you’re doing it picking a ball and saying, “whatever ball this is, it’s more likely another one — AJJ
I don’t think it is. The only presumption is population growth until an abrupt demise. It then follows that the final X years will have a greater population than any earlier X-year range, and so therefore that betting on the final X years will give us the best odds of winning. — Michael
I’m saying “I’m going to bet that it’s blue but it’s more likely not blue” - which is true if there are 15 balls and only 5 are blue. — Michael
That is if we are in fact living in the final years. If we're not, then betting on the last rooms gives you no better chance of winning. Your position in the rooms is determined by time, not population number, so you can only be in the largest group (given continuous population growth) by being in the last group. So, the question ends up circular. — Echarmion
That’s not right. Take my example with the coloured balls. 1 red is given out at T1, then 2 orange at T2, then 3 yellow at T3, then 4 green at T4, and then 5 blue at T5. There’s nothing circular in saying that if I have to bet on which Tn my ball was given to me then T5 gives me the best odds (1/3). It doesn’t make sense to say that if I was given my ball at T4 then T5 doesn’t give me the best odds. That’s like saying that if my ball is red then betting on blue doesn’t give me the best odds. That’s not how probabilities are calculated. — Michael
That's true, but in your example, you know you're already after T5. That is to say all balls are in the game. With the doomsday argument, this is not the case. In your example, you'd have to account for the probability that there are no blue balls at all yet. — Echarmion
If the 3-1 is the best chance available then the 3-1 is the most likely to win. Most likely to win is what “best odds” means right? Payouts come into this if you say you shouldn’t bet in a spot; payouts are essential to consider there. — AJJ
But of all the balls blue is the most likely one you’re holding. You can say it’s more likely to not be that colour about any of them, but it has to be one, and one of them is going to be most likely. — AJJ
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I'm just told the rules and then given a hidden ball. I don't know if my ball is blue and I don't know if the time I was given the ball (say 12:00pm) is T5. — Michael
So what are the probabilities P(it is at most T4) and P(it is T5 or later)? If they aren't equal, this changes the probability to have a blue ball. — Echarmion
The likelihood to live now...compared to living in history or in the future is very low. Now if we assume humans have been around for 100 000 years, it's totally possible for us to be around for another 100 000 year. No, we won't go extinct in a couple of decades or continue on an upward trend (as Peak Human Population) will come likely in 100 years or so. Yet if there are 10 billion people for the next 100 000, do the math.The question(s) goes as follows: In which scenario are we most likely to live? Or rather, can we make a statement about this? — Mind Dough
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