Mathematical magic tricks like hmmm, statistics?To me, it's more amazing how easily people bow their heads to experts once the experts perform some mathematical magic tricks that they don't understand ;) Much like witch doctors did 2000 years ago. — Agustino
No, if someone came with such statistics to me to predict a result, I'd bet against it and win some money actually :D - so I would like it very much!Nowdays it seems that people are OK with statistics if the statistical result tells something they want to hear. Otherwise it's fake news. — ssu
People tend to double-down on their commitments rather than admit to being wrong. They're so invested that they're incapable of changing their mind. Probably an ego thing. — Michael
I think this is actually a serious misunderstanding of the gravity of our modern situation. I think Alasdair MacIntyre was right in his book After Virtue that we, as a society, no longer have the tools and the means required to settle moral disputes.An atheist, an agnostic, a buddhist, a jew, a muslim, a hindu, and a christian all walk into a bar and sit down. After a while they drink, talk, and quickly become friends...
If you're waiting for a punchline... don't, cause it ain't a joke. That's just what happens when you're not an asshole. — creativesoul
And what makes you think I don't know stats? — Agustino
He actually didn't present a mathematical analysis, he just indicated how the pollsters analysed the data they had collected. I've already critiqued that methodology and shown by example how some of the following assumptions are wrong:Edit: in a bit more detail, Michael presented a mathematical analysis in support of his claim. You did not reply in kind, but instead simply claimed that the experts could not be trusted. — Banno
That the probability distribution is normal.
That the sample is random.
That the sample is representative.
That there are no systematic errors.
That people answer honestly.
That people would actually behave as they say they'd behave if they actually had to vote. — Agustino
How much does Crooked pay you? — Agustino
No, he actually did that by pointing me to the methodology of the pollsters. Then I critiqued that methodology. That's the facts of what happened. Now you may disagree with my criticism, and you can think that the methodology applied (including the mathematical analysis) is valid, but that's an entirely different story, which has little to do with the facts.And he did that using poetics. — Banno
The very strange thing is that I feel exactly the same way about you. You also have so much insight sometimes, you are a spiritual person, you are not blind. Moreover, you understand the value of social conservatism, you even are one, and yet you support the most monstrous of candidates - like Hillary Clinton - out of fear of someone like Trump. How can a man like you be afraid of a Trump? A Trump is very visible, but Hillary is invisible. And with her would have come the likes of Amy Schumer and Madona triumphant! Can you just imagine? Conservatives would have been expelled from the US! What would have happened with your social conservatism? Madona offered people a blowjob to vote for Hillary Clinton - that already is sufficient not to support Hillary. The fact that she associated herself with such people is sufficient. Not to mention all the corruption scandals, the deletion of 30,000 emails, her husband's behaviour towards women and her protection of him, and so on so forth. It really amazes me, your behaviour.I don't understand it. There's a lot of depth in your other posts, even though I don't always agree with them, although in some respects I do. But then you come out in defense of the indefensible, which simply destroys your credibility. I am not going to get into another pointless argument, but I am convinced that in this regard, your judgement is flawed. — Wayfarer
Not to mention all the corruption scandals, the deletion of 30,000 emails, her husband's behaviour towards women and her protection of him, and so on so forth. — Agustino
Madona offered people a blowjob to vote for Hillary Clinton - that already is sufficient not to support Hillary.
And with her would have come the likes of Amy Schumer and Madona triumphant! Can you just imagine?
As far as I know, not really. He has maybe been cruel in some business deals, but I wouldn't say he's actually done as much as Clinton. In terms of personal sexual morality, he might be worse off than Hillary Clinton though, I can grant that.And Trump hasn't done anything comparable (or worse)? — Michael
No, if you read what I said, you'll see that I clarify further on that:So if some celebrity offered people a blowjob to vote for Trump then that's a reason not to support him? — Michael
She could have come out and said that she thanks Madona for her support, but her comment was not decent, and women aren't sexual objects who are only good for sex, and therefore we as a society shouldn't try to promote that image. But she didn't. Instead, she gladly accepted Madona's support, and not only, but she spoke with her, she invited her to her rallies, and so on so forth. That is already going too far. Such a person lacks integrity and backbone. She would do anything probably - including probably give a blowjob herself - if it could get her elected. That's terrible. A President should have integrity and should be willing to go against public opinion when public opinion is wrong. Clinton hasn't shown the capacity for that at all.Madona offered people a blowjob to vote for Hillary Clinton - that already is sufficient not to support Hillary. The fact that she associated herself with such people is sufficient. — Agustino
No, I never said he's a noble and a good soul. I said that his impulse - to defend the statues from being taken down - is noble and good. The thing with Trump is that he is unconsciously good. He does not realize what he is doing, but some of the impulses he has are good. In fact, if you read what I said:I don't even know what it is you actually like about Trump. It's all very vague ("he's noble and has a good soul"). — Michael
Far from suggesting Trump is a good character, I said his character doesn't matter as much since his politics are still better than Clinton's.And what's so bad about Trump? Yes he's a narcissist. So what? His politics is still better than the politics of the non-narcissist but Crooked Hillary. — Agustino
This shouldn't suggest Trump has a good character or soul - for then it would contradict the above. It should rather suggest that Trump has intimations of a good character or soul. I'd say those tendencies that he has, are unconscious - they're just deeply ingrained in him.He is upset that people are pulling down the statues in US, and destroying the heritage of the country. That is the sign of a good soul, of nobility. — Agustino
Whether I agree with them or not isn't very relevant to the discussion. And that's because morally speaking I'm indifferent to whether we build a wall between US or Mexico, whether Muslims from certain countries are banned from entering US, whether transgenders can or can't serve in the US Army, etc. These decisions are morally indifferent to me. They should be purely pragmatic decisions. Sure, I have preferences on them, but I wouldn't worry for a second if we chose to take the opposite course of action.Or are there specific policies that he has implemented (or wants to implement) that you agree with, like the Muslim or transgender ban or the Mexican wall? — Michael
I respect him because of positions he publicly takes on issues with regards to, for example, the statues, or the military, the veterans, God, etc.Is it just that he identifies as a Republican? — Michael
Well I've been very honest about that. I'm not going to declare that he himself is a good guy, but I have no problem declaring that he's a competent president, because he actually is. I think we do need a President who will stick it in the face of the media and the corporate world who've started to think they have an absolute right of dictating our morality and culture. Of course there's going to be a massive conflict between the President and these people, and I think we actually need that conflict, I'm very happy it's going on.If it is just the case (as I believe it is, recalling our discussions prior to the election) that the real reason you support Trump is that you think he's the best chance at having social conservatism promoted (overturning rulings on gay marriage and abortion and the like) then it would be far more honest and productive if you just came out and admitted it, and stopped trying to pretend that Trump himself is a good guy or a competent president. — Michael
It doesn't sound to me like a guy who cares only about his image and bank account. Certainly such a guy wouldn't show his support for not taking the statues down, and in the process get in a huge fight with the media, risk ruining his reputation, and lose out on support from part of the business community. He totally wouldn't do that. So either Trump is stupid - which he is not - or he has some noble drives inside of him that are motivating him through his own very big ego.All he seems to care about is his image and his bank account. — Michael
I think we do need a President who will stick it in the face of the media and the corporate world who've started to think they have an absolute right of dictating our morality and culture. — Agustino
Yes, he has. Richest White House team in history. So what? I'm not judging his hirelings, I'm judging him now.He's hired many big businessmen into government. He still owns the Trump Organization, refusing to divest from it. — Michael
Okay, I don't think those things are bad in themselves.This is confusing. Trump is very pro-business. Most of his executive orders seem to be aimed at reducing regulations, and he has plans to reduce corporate tax. — Michael
Yes, he apparently does, but isn't actively involved in running it. Is that a problem?He still owns the Trump Organization, refusing to divest from it. — Michael
It's true he's friendlier with Fox, but Fox has a better and more truthful portrayal of what he does than the other media channels. But even Fox is critical at times, and Trump is also critical of Fox (though not of Sean Hannity >:O )And it isn't accurate to say that he sticks it in the face of the media, given his love of Fox & Friends, Sean Hannity — Michael
Whom he just fired.and Steve Bannon (who he gave a powerful position in the White House) — Michael
He does seem to have that tendency, yes.He just lashes out at anyone that is critical of him. — Michael
So he supported not taking down the statues because the media lashed at him? :sThat's got nothing to do with some righteous fight against the "evil" newspapers and everything to do with him being a narcissist. Anything he doesn't like he just proclaims to be "Fake News". — Michael
I'm here to discuss philosophy not sound off. — Wayfarer
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