Yes, and there's plenty more here to unpack. "Why" questions presume intent, in some aspect, and so all that goes with intentionality.

My point is that: 1) we can draw some conclusions based on the information that IS available; 2) some conclusions are more reasonable than others; 3) (obviously) it's contingent upon the information being correct.

I gave my family member's reasoning, and mine. Don't you agree mine is more reasonable?

My point is that: 1) we can draw some conclusions based on the information that IS available; 2) some conclusions are more reasonable than others; 3) (obviously) it's contingent upon the information being correct. — Relativist

Is the argument that abduction can be used to pick out which theories are conspiracy theories? Then what counts as a conspiracy theory is which "conclusions are more reasonable than others"; but a conspiracy theorist may just insist that the conspiracy is the more reasonable conclusion.

Hence Melina Tsapos' conspiracy definition dilemma.

"Why" questions presume intent, in some aspect, and so all that goes with intentionality. — Banno

As in the rock intended to start the avalanche that happened by intending to pursue gravitational paths of less resistance down the mountain just so?

That would make a rather extreme animist of you. Not even the spiritualists I've encountered hold such views.

Why questions all presuppose purpose, ends toward which things move physically or otherwise, and hence teleological causation - of which intents, and hence intentionality, is just one relatively minor instantiation of within the cosmos at large. The reason why leaves flutter is not because the wind so wills it. Lest we loose track of what are poetic truths and what is objectively real.

But I guess none of this matters much when causes are taken to be unreal. No objective truth to them to speak of - only the invented illusory truths of those who domineeringly subjugate the minds of others. What tyrant wouldn't approve?

(Still very much concur with Orwell's perspective.)

As in the rock intended to start the avalanche that happened by intending to pursue gravitational paths of less resistance down the mountain just so? — javra

That'd be more a "how" than a "why" - how the avalanche started rather than why.

Why questions all presuppose purpose — javra

Yep.

What's proposed is causation not as an external “thing to be explained” but as a feature of our ongoing engagement with the world. Saying that causes are unreal would be a misrepresentation. Pushing the trolly causes it to move, hence it's true that pushing the trolly caused its movement. That's not an antirealist ploy.

Added:

The reason why leaves flutter is not because the wind so wills it. Lest we loose track of what are poetic truths and what is objectively real. — javra

Reconsidering, "Why did the leaves flutter - because the wind blew them" presumes neither intent nor purpose. Fair point.

Davidson treats intentions as causal, after all. I'll give @unenlightened's post some more thought.

Why did the wind blow? - because of areas of differing atmospheric pressures.
Why were there differing areas of atmospheric pressures? - because of solar heating on a rotation earth.
Why was there solar heating on a rotation earth...

Each of these presents a broader description.

Do we end with "because godswill" or perhaps "Becasue triadic thingumies"?

I gave my family member's reasoning, and mind. Don't you agree mine is more reasonable? — Relativist

Of course. But I was discussing conspiracy theorising in general. As in the sociologic context of what can count as legitimate belief.

In the modern world, is your anti-conspiratorial stance still the legitimate thing? Can the truth even be secured without accepting a dash of conspiratorial doubt given the fact that even the well intentioned have reason to gloss over or edit the facts as they might exist.

If correlation ain’t causation, well what if even correlation ain’t much of a fact either. Even description can’t ground truth.

All this arises from my point that truth is a pincer movement. We can make objective measurements, but even these become subjective facts. So pragmatism requires we also do equal work on the causal explanation side. We must have grounded logic - that pesky all-encompassing theory of everything.

The best we can do is play the two sides of this dichotomy off against each other. Conspiracy theories show how the facts are always irreducible ambiguous. We can’t rely absolutely on them. But where conspiracy theory falls down is often on some grounding holism of causal logic.

We could ask if the world really works in a way where it is reasonable that Charlie Kirk was popped at close range with some kind of special bullet fired by Azov regiment agents on the behest of Israeli forces, with Tyler Robinson set up as the patsy with AI doctored footage of him clambering of a rooftop, etc?

Anything is possible. So the burden shifts to what - by logical constraint - remains credible.

We can pretend life is a science project or learn to assess situations in more pragmatic fashion. A skill becoming more necessary everyday it seems.

But again my point is how even for conspiracy theories, it cuts both ways. We are in a new media era where there is vastly more individual capacity to data mine and fact check. We can find out what is real about public events to a degree that we couldn’t before. That should be a good thing. And couple that power to a general rationality - an ability to step back with a world view that asks, well what are the odds - then conspiracy thinking could morph into something valuable. Producing needed social change.

I’m not giving Candace Owen high marks as yet. I just think this is a very interesting space. Especially if AI could be a neutral judge on the balance of the odds. The media has always evolved. But the pace of that is now really fast. And theories of truth need to keep up to date.

Hence Melina Tsapos' conspiracy definition dilemma. — Banno

Reductionism is always caught on the horns of a dilemma. Just as for PoMo, everything is mired in self-refuting paradox.

There is a reason why the unity of opposites is the more reasonable totalising framework when it comes to a metaphysical ground for our habits of mind.

That'd be more a "how" than a "why". — Banno

Not when it's an explanation for why the avalanche happened. Quite obviously I would think.

Why questions all presuppose purpose — javra

Yep. — Banno

OK then. Point being that not all purposes are intentions or else intentional. The rock's movement ended in there being an avalanche. In this very affirmation, there is a presupposed background of teleological reason in the form of "something's movement toward an addressed as of yet unactualized end/telos resulted in the actuality of the end addressed" and thereby caused the given effect. There's two glitches, though. The rock is devoid of intentions it wills to accomplish, for it it devoid of sentience and thereby will. Debatable within panpsychism contexts, true, but more importantly, to so consider all whys dependent on purpose in one way or another is to claim that all inanimate physical givens nevertheless do what they do sans intentionionality for the sake of accomplishing some ultimate end. Otherwise, there'd be nothing purposeful to it.

I can live with this. Can you?

Especially when you state that:

Saying that causes are unreal would be a misrepresentation. — Banno

Given your rudeness and ridicule, why should I respond to your posts? Your worldview strikes me as sophistic bullshit.

That'd be more a "how" than a "why". — Banno

Yep, one can’t avoid dichotomising. But it is the unifying that separates the reductionists from the holists.

How and why don’t have to be a dilemma - two disconnected monisms. Anomalous monisms indeed. They can instead be the two limits of inquiry. As in the material and formal causes of substantial being. Aristotle’s hylomorphism.

How always needs a why, and why always needs a how. So no dilemma. Just the opposing bounds on inquiry that we then bring back together to account for the whole. :up:

I can live with this. Can you? — javra

Yep.

See the musings added to the previous post. You've got me rethinking my reply to Un.

Is there a problem?

Given your rudeness and ridicule, why should I respond to your posts? Your worldview strikes me as sophistic bullshit. — Banno

I realise you would prefer a public fluffing and then you might graciously dole out your little morsels of Davidsonian wisdom mixed in with exciting news about what you have planned for lunch.

But sorry that ain’t happening. I’m here for the contest of ideas. Not to play your popularity competition. The good old days of like buttons and bragging about the inordinate length of your threads.

If you want my respect, it has to be earnt, Show up with an argument. And make it interesting. Give that a try.

I can live with this. Can you? — javra


Yep. — Banno

That's cool

See the musings added to the previous post. You've got me rethinking my reply to Un.

Is there a problem? — Banno

I have a problem with this part:

Do we end with "Becasue godswill" or perhaps "Becasue triadic thingumies"? — Banno

Neither of these present an ultimate end as the teleological reason for what is. Godswill is a mouthful: what is this "god" supposed to be to begin with, for example; is it supposed to be an omni-creator deity which created everything, including right and wrong and truth and falsehood, in line with the "His" own whims. If so, then this god cannot rationally equate to the divinely simple unmoved mover of everything that is as teleological ultimate end, for whims and creations are aspects, parts, of His being - which cannot be rationally said to occur within divine simplicity. ... A rather expansive subject. In a roundabout manner same with "triadic thingness": it is a supposed explanation for what is that cannot serve as an ultimate teleological end of what is: for starters, it doesn't predict that the cosmos's ultimate end is that of triadic thingness.

I know, these can be argued back and forth. But I think I'll be leaving that to others. Still, I can't find either to be that ultimate end which teleologically determines all that is, was, and will be - our myriad intentionings very much included - till the time this ultimate end is actualized.

Almost nothing in life is provably true, but we can still weigh facts and evidence - and strive to do this as reasonably as possible- that is all abduction is. — Relativist

But again, if nothing is certain—even conceptually—then you can't weigh anything as more or less certain. The labels "conspiracy theory" or "inference to the best explanation" are never substantive labels given that they always involve a begging of the question. The "conspiracy theorist" is always the other guy, just as the guy with the best explanation is always me.

If someone's theory is bad, then you should say why it is bad in a way that would be convincing even to them. If your explanation is good or the best, then you should say why it is such. Labels like "conspiracy theory" or "inference to the best explanation" don't add anything substantial to a conversation, particularly when they lack context.

For example, if you have a number of different explanatory kinds in your belt, and one of them is IBE, then labeling one of your explanations an IBE is intelligible vis-a-vis the differentiation it provides. But when you continually say that IBEs are all there is and also claim that "IBE" means something intelligible, you aren't making much sense.

Or riffing on my parasitic idea from earlier, you can't talk about an "inference to the best explanation" if you aren't able to tell us what an explanation is. And if you say that an explanation (or every particular explanation) is an inference to the best explanation, then you've fallen into the viciously circular quandary. If you give a traditional account of what an explanation is, then we already have an alternative to an IBE, at least from an ontological perspective, and therefore not every account is (or professes to be) an IBE.

There are a number of folk on this forum who reject all substantive approaches to causality and explanation, substitute in their term "inference to the best explanation," and think they have won the day. But this is a rather confused move. If there are no real explanations, can there really be any best explanations? If I don't have even a conceptual understanding of what counts as an explanation, then how am I to know how to identify better or lesser explanations?

I have a problem with this part: — javra

Me, too. It's intended to show how the "why" doesn't end satisfactorily in at least some cases.

There's a whole side road concerning intentionality here, that is well worth considering. At issue is the difference, if any, between these and other causal explanations. All good stuff.

Do we go there, in this thread?

Is the argument that abduction can be used to pick out which theories are conspiracy theories? — Banno

No. Rather, abduction would tend to rule out theories that are commonly called conspiracy theories, but it's irrelevant whether they've been labelled as that.


As far as I'm concerned, anything goes when it comes to proposing an explanatory hypothesis. Brainstorming works best when unconstrained. But applying abduction results in sorting out from consideration those hypotheses that have the weakest support.

a conspiracy theorist may just insist that the conspiracy is the more reasonable conclusion. — Banno

You can lead a horse to water....

But not really relevant. I argue that we think abductively all the time: we make epistemic judgements based on data too sparse to draw a deductive conclusion. This isn't about trying to convince anybody, it's about ourselves thinking critically.

Of course, it does help to review one's hypothesis with others, to invite criticism - hearing different perspectives on the body of facts (adding, removing, revising), exposing our biases, and hearing alternative interpretations. But ultimately, we all make our own epistemic judgements.

If our case IS sound (in an abductive sense), then it probably would convince others, but that's a byproduct.
.

First issue is whether abduction is just brainstorming, or if it includes some selection amongst the hypotheses generated. To you, it seems it does. To others, it seems it doesn't.

The problems I want to point out apply to abduction considered as being normative - as involving choosing between hypotheses. So, to your account.

How is it that "abduction would tend to rule out theories that are commonly called conspiracy theories"? What's the basis for the selection?

The criticism I began with is that if you set out those criteria, if you set out your expectations for a good hypothesis, then what you are in effect doing is choosing only the hypotheses that meet those expectations; I somewhat hyperbolically called that "confirmation bias" - you get what you want, an so perhaps not what you need.

On this approach, is any theory that does not meet one's expectations a conspiracy theory? Seems to be so, unless there is some additional criteria.

Next step was introducing Feyerabend, who shows historical cases in which going against expectations and logical conclusions leads to progress in science - were irrationality leads to choosing the better theory. His argument gets a bit deeper than that, but there's a start, since this is counter to the naive view of abductuion as choosing the best theory.

Now some care is needed here. We agree that we do "make judgements based on data too sparse to draw a deductive conclusion". what I am baulking at is calling these judgements "abduction", if what is meant is that they are correct, or true, or worse, necessary.

All up, it seems to me that there remains a hole in your account, that explains the why of how we must choose this hypothesis over that one.

But again, if nothing is certain—even conceptually—then you can't weigh anything as more or less certain. — Leontiskos

Suppose you can't find your car keys, one morning. What possibly happened to them? Did it fall into an interdimensional portal; did a poltergeist hide them? Did a monkey come through an unlocked window and take them? Was there a glitch in the matrix? The possibilities are endless. But only a few are truly worth consideration, like - maybe you. left them in the pants you were wearing, you dropped them, left them on the kitchen table, or in the car.

More generally, it is often the case that we would consider some possibilities more credible/plausible/likely than others. Examples:

-It's quite plausible for one person to keep a secret, but less plausible that hundreds can keep the same secret for decades with no noticeable slip-ups (this is one common problem with conspiracy theories).

-Suppose you have 2 alternative possibilities, but there is supporting evidence for only one. Evidence gives a good reason to treat it more credibly.

If someone's theory is bad, then you should say why it is bad in a way that would be convincing even to them. — Leontiskos

That assumes the other person is reasonable. I actually did explain to my sister-in-law why her belief that Trump staged his assassination attempt was flawed, and she just responded that I give Trump too much credit.

Another factor: background beliefs. They are factors that influence our judgements. Of course, they can be challenged, but how deep do we ever go? People are apt to get frustrated or pissed off before a meeting of the minds is reached.

Yet another factor: Some people are more apt to make clear epistemic judgements, and some are more apt to reserve judgement. There's no objectively correct point at which judgement is deemed appropriate, although one ought to try an be consistent. This is a factor in past judgements that are within our background beliefs - so there's an abundance of reasons why 2 reasonable people may disagree.

if you have a number of different explanatory kinds in your belt, and one of them is IBE, then labeling one of your explanations an IBE is intelligible vis-a-vis the differentiation it provides. — Leontiskos

Agreed.

Or riffing on my parasitic idea from earlier, you can't talk about an "inference to the best explanation" if you aren't able to tell us what an explanation is. — Leontiskos

In this context, an explanation is a conclusion someone is drawing from some set of evidence and background facts.

There are a number of folk on this forum who reject all substantive approaches to causality and explanation, substitute in their term "inference to the best explanation," and think they have won the day. But this is a rather confused move. If there are no real explanations, can there really be any best explanations? If I don't have even a conceptual understanding of what counts as an explanation, then how am I to know how to identify better or lesser explanations? — Leontiskos

I don't know what your talking about regarding "causality and explanation". But I'd say that an IBE is always a conclusion, but it may simply be a conclusion to reserve judgement. For example: is there a "best" interpretation of Quantum Mechanics? IMO, no- because they are all consistent with the measurements- there's no objective basis to choose one, so I think we should reserve judgement.

We often don't have multiple, distinct "explanations" to choose from; we're just assessing whether or not there's sufficient justification to support an assertion. We examine this justification and decide whether to affirm it, deny it, or reserve judgement. It's the same process, whether or not we choose to label it abduction.

Take a look at this.

As in the rock intended to start the avalanche that happened by intending to pursue gravitational paths of less resistance down the mountain just so?

That would make a rather extreme animist of you. Not even the spiritualists I've encountered hold such views. — javra

"Snow likes to be very quiet, and when someone disturbs it, it does its best to quieten them down."

The point I am making is more so grammatical. Of a living being, one can ask why they did something, and how they did something and get very different answers.

"Reasons why" ask for motives: The tiger killed the goat because it was hungry.

"How" asks for effective method: The tiger killed the goat by creeping through the pampas grass stealthily from downwind and springing suddenly upon it.

So I would rather suggest that my reasoning is that avalanches and snow do not reason, and therefore the question of why they happen is inappropriate. 'How an avalanche happens' one can ask, but 'why' is indeed the question of an extreme animist, or else a 'how' question in inappropriate and misleading disguise.

Thus 'why', asks about reasoning, about the mind in question, and 'how' asks about practicalities and events. I think this simple distinction can resolve much of the controversy. If there seems to be no mind, do not look for reasons why. Because it will only confuse and annoy. Because I said so! Because this is how the language works.

What's your point? Are you just acknowledging what I said about background beliefs being involved in our epistemic judgements?

In fact MMA is much safer than boxing.

In boxing you have the repeated blows to the head resulting in long term brain injury.

The "punch-drunk" syndrome.

In boxing the primary target is the head.

Boxers sustain hundreds of sub-concussive blows per fight and in training.

In MMA you have a single blow to the head instead of multiple repeated blows.

I gave my family member's reasoning, and mind. Don't you agree mine is more reasonable?
— Relativist

Of course. — apokrisis

Then appreciate how this relates to what I'm saying about IBEs. My explanation is "better".

In the modern world, is your anti-conspiratorial stance still the legitimate thing? Can the truth even be secured without accepting a dash of conspiratorial doubt given the fact that even the well intentioned have reason to gloss over or edit the facts as they might exist. — apokrisis

I don't have an "anti-conspiratorial stance". Conspiracies certainly occur. However, large scale conspiracies involving hundreds or thousands of people, particularly over many years, with 100% adherence to maintaining the fiction is implausible. Faking the moon landing would require this. A "false flag" operation by the US government in taking down the WTC on 9/11 would require this. It's an inherent implausibility in many conspiracy theories. Real conspiracies are apt to be exposed when very many are involved- some will screw up; some may have second thoughts.

Anything is possible. So the burden shifts to what - by logical constraint - remains credible.

We can pretend life is a science project or learn to assess situations in more pragmatic fashion. A skill becoming more necessary everyday it seems. — apokrisis

Absolutely! That's exactly what I'm talking about.

But again my point is how even for conspiracy theories, it cuts both ways. We are in a new media era where there is vastly more individual capacity to data mine and fact check. We can find out what is real about public events to a degree that we couldn’t before. That should be a good thing. And couple that power to a general rationality - an ability to step back with a world view that asks, well what are the odds - then conspiracy thinking could morph into something valuable. Producing needed social change. — apokrisis

Absolutely: we have an abundance of easily accessible information. In a perfect world, everyone would apply good epistemic judgement when trying to make sense of the information. In our imperfect world, we can at least strive to do this ourselves. This means trying to avoid being overly influenced by our biases (as in the case of my sister-in-law); it means valuing evidence over pure conjecture; it means considering the plausibility of claims; it means being willing to reevaluate our assumptions instead of tenaciously rationalizing our initial reactions. We can also attempt to persuade and to discuss the need for good epistemic judgement, but we also should be open to being persuaded by good reasoning.

I’m not giving Candace Owen high marks as yet. — apokrisis

I don't know much about her, so I checked Wikipedia. Apparently she promotes a variety of conspiracy theories. From this, I infer she has poor epistemic judgement, and thus I would'nt gain much but listening to her. It would be foolish for anyone to uncritically accept the claims of anyone with that track record.

There's a reason the term "conspiracy theory" has evolved to entail being irrational: they entail a set of common errors of epistemic judgement. Don't take my word* for it, but do examine the basis for any theory you find intriguing.

* The wikipedia article on conspiracy theories is worth a read.

The criticism I began with is that if you set out those criteria, if you set out your expectations for a good hypothesis, then what you are in effect doing is choosing only the hypotheses that meet those expectations; I somewhat hyperbolically called that "confirmation bias" - you get what you want, an so perhaps not what you need.

On this approach, is any theory that does not meet one's expectations a conspiracy theory? Seems to be so, unless there is some additional criteria. — Banno

In answer to the question: we could dispense with using the term "conspiracy theory" entirely, and simply apply good epistemic judgement to any theory that comes along. Let's consider some factors that affect this judgement.

1) I contend that more credence should be given to claims that are supported by evidence, than those that are purely speculation. Often, the evidence is insufficient to establish the claim beyond reasonable doubt (or some other standard we might apply). So it is of course possible the speculation is true, and the one supported by evidence is false. But have we made an error of judgement? Possibilities are endless, so if we dwell on all possibilities, we will never make a judgement - we'll be lost, wandering through a forest of possibilities. We can make a judgement, while remaining open to revising it when we learn more. Maybe evidence supporting the speculation will come out.

2) Plausibility is a factor in epistemic judgement. This will be a function of background beliefs, but it's grossly impractical to start from the ground up when judging every claim. I've said it's implausible that hundreds or thousands of people could maintain a conspiratorial secret for any extended period of time. It would entail unwavering commitment to the cause, and perfect competence by all. I can't claim it's impossible, but I judge it to be grossly implausible. I apply this as a background belief when judging a claim. But because it's possible, I could be missing an exception by ruling it out prematurely,. But again: possibilities are endless, so if we're going to make a judgement, we need to narrow down the possibilities.

Feyerabend,...His argument gets a bit deeper than that, but there's a start, since this is counter to the naive view of abductuion as choosing the best theory. — Banno

His case studies do not entail choosing a best theory. I'll interject Kuhn's "scientific revolutions" concept - these entail a sort of selecting of a better theory. It's a process that is gradual and collective, not an individual sitting down and juxtaposing the respective theories and applying some rules, but the process has the same net effect.

There's another issue that is unique to science:"The history of science, after all, does not just consist of facts and conclusions drawn from facts, problems created by conflicting interpretations, mistakes, and so on. On closer analysis we find that science knows no "bare facts" at all but that the "facts" that enter our knowledge are already viewed in a certain way and are, therefore, essentially ideational. This being the case, the history of science will be as complex, chaotic, full of mistakes..."
[Feyerabend, "Against Method", p 3).

I can't find the quote, but elsewhere he discusses the fact that scientific theories are invariably inconsistent - they entail come contradictions or other clear falsehoods (example: the cosmological constant problem). This provides a strong reason to set aside the commonly accepted theoretical framework, at times (let's not forget that progress is also made within current theoretical frameworks).

These issues don't apply to everyday epistemic judgments. Of course, you COULD point to various metaphysical theories that could call everything into question (e.g. idealism, solipsism), but such an approach is as unpragmatic as you can get. It's hard enough to navigate the world just in the way we commonly view it, so (IMO) it's silly to be paralyzed by these various metaphysical possibilities.

Now some care is needed here. We agree that we do "make judgements based on data too sparse to draw a deductive conclusion". what I am baulking at is calling these judgements "abduction", if what is meant is that they are correct, or true, or worse, necessary. — Banno

I agree, and that's why I'm referring to them as "epistemic judgements". It would be unwarranted to claim a judgement made through abduction constitutes knowledge, in the strictest sense, or that it entails necessity. Even more so than the lip-service we give to the epistemic status of scientific theories: they can only be warranted as provisional. The "best" in "inference to best explanation" isn't an absolute claim that there can be no better explanation. It's simply a judgement that the selected hypothesis is best, among the options considered.

Does that fill the hole you mentioned?

Yep. Another resonating point. Especially as before Trump was on The Apprentice, he was part of WWE. — apokrisis

Interesting - I did not know that.

I used to like old school boxing but find modern MMA unwatchable. One claimed to showcase the skill, the other only the brutality. — apokrisis

That seems right to me.

I completely agree. That is why I focus on Candace Owens as a particular case in point. The medium is evolving fast. It is too easy to dismiss it for its history on the fringes and its WWE levels of believability. — apokrisis

Okay, but can you elaborate on this? I'm not too familiar with Candace Owens. I know she broke off from a media company, went her own way, and become more idiosyncratic and conspiratorial (much like Tucker Carlson). And is the "medium" you speak of conspiratorial thinking, or something else?

My suggestion is that the media may evolve but it always becomes what power must capture and control. And that exists in tension with the power of the people to resist. — apokrisis

Yes, I think that's quite right.

So the printing press at first liberated people power - taking back the written world from the social elite. Then it became the tool of class factions and eventually the liberal order, such as it was.

How is the internet likely to fare in that regard? How do things go as even social media crashes into the new AI paradigm. — apokrisis

Right. I tend to share Baden's worries that he expressed in a thread that has up and vanished.

That is why I now toy with AI as the instant fact checker on PF opinion. — apokrisis

I haven't used it for philosophy much, but I have tried the LLMs for other things. I agree that one must keep abreast of such things.

The great thing about is that @Banno holds the "opinions" of AI in high regard, and often utilizes them himself. I think that's part of the reason why he got so quiet after seeing his own theories debunked by his own authorities.

Then appreciate how this relates to what I'm saying about IBEs. My explanation is "better". — Relativist

But isn't it just a truism to say that one should prefer the better to the worse? That's why a preference for the best is not a substantial position. Everyone agrees with it and everyone thinks their theory is better than other theories.

But again, if nothing is certain—even conceptually—then you can't weigh anything as more or less certain. — Leontiskos

Suppose you can't find your car keys, one morning... — Relativist

But how does any of this address the point at stake? I don't even know if you are agreeing or disagreeing with my statement.

If someone's theory is bad, then you should say why it is bad in a way that would be convincing even to them. — Leontiskos

That assumes the other person is reasonable. — Relativist

The point is that you must do more than beg the question. The label "conspiracy theory" is too broad, bordering on things as broad as "bad" or "irrational." If one wants to engage in rational discourse, then they must offer reasons, and "bad", "irrational", and "conspiracy theory" don't really count as reasons. More generally, one must offer arguments and not assertions.

if you have a number of different explanatory kinds in your belt, and one of them is IBE, then labeling one of your explanations an IBE is intelligible vis-a-vis the differentiation it provides. — Leontiskos

Agreed. — Relativist

Good, but do you also agree that if everything is an IBE then there is no intelligibility given that no differentiation is possible? If so, then you must possess alternative approaches other than IBE if 'IBE' is to be a meaningful notion.

Or riffing on my parasitic idea from earlier, you can't talk about an "inference to the best explanation" if you aren't able to tell us what an explanation is. — Leontiskos

In this context, an explanation is a conclusion someone is drawing from some set of evidence and background facts. — Relativist

Okay, good. So would we say that, at least in some cases, there is the real explanation and nominal explanations are better or worse depending on how well they approximate the real explanation? If so, then an IBE is presupposing the ontological existence of an aitia/cause/explanation.

For example: is there a "best" interpretation of Quantum Mechanics? IMO, no- because they are all consistent with the measurements- there's no objective basis to choose one, so I think we should reserve judgement. — Relativist

So would you say that when someone argues for one particular interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, they are not offering an IBE?

We often don't have multiple, distinct "explanations" to choose from; we're just assessing whether or not there's sufficient justification to support an assertion. We examine this justification and decide whether to affirm it, deny it, or reserve judgement. It's the same process, whether or not we choose to label it abduction. — Relativist

But that doesn't seem very principled. If there is not more than one explanation, then how can you talk about an inference to the best explanation? It seems like you now want "inference to the best explanation" to include any judgment that there is sufficient justification to support an assertion. But that's not what the words mean. "This is the best explanation" is not the same as, "This assertion possesses sufficient justification." "Best" and "sufficient" are not the same concept. It seems that you are being too loose with words and concepts, and that is much the point.

If I were teaching a logic class I would ask you to provide an argument for your conclusion, "...Therefore, no conspiracy theory is an IBE."

If you reply that some conspiracy theories are IBEs, but this is rare, I would point out that the conspiracy theorist agrees with you. The conspiracy theorist would not be a conspiracy theorist if they thought that conspiracy theories were common or mundane explanations. It is precisely the rarity that they are attracted to.

In fact MMA is much safer than boxing. — Colo Millz

Yep. I said boxing was in fact the deadlier. :up:

Then appreciate how this relates to what I'm saying about IBEs. My explanation is "better". — Relativist

Sure. And I was talking about how it would be better. What “best” might mean.

I don't know much about her, so I checked Wikipedia. — Relativist

I mentioned her as an example of conspiracy theory going mainstream in a more potent fashion.

But isn't it just a truism to say that one should prefer the better to the worse? — Leontiskos

No, because we're employing reason to guide the choice, not just what feels "best". We're evaluating the evidence, considering plausibility, reflecting on our personal biases...everything I've talked about.

But again, if nothing is certain—even conceptually—then you can't weigh anything as more or less certain.
— Leontiskos

Suppose you can't find your car keys, one morning...
— Relativist

But how does any of this address the point at stake? — Leontiskos

My point is that we can often make finer distinctions than simply possible/impossible.

I think I previously mentioned "modest Bayesianism" to you. This is the claim that for SOME pairs of propositions, we can justifiably judge one to be more likely than the other. This doesn't entail a commitment to attach a numerical probability to all propositions that could be used in a Bayesian probability calculation.

The examples I gave illustrate this. If you're going to treat all possibilities the same, no matter how remote, you will get nowhere in making epistemic judgements.

The point is that you must do more than beg the question. The label "conspiracy theory" is too broad, bordering on things as broad as "bad" or "irrational." If one wants to engage in rational discourse, then they must offer reasons, and "bad", "irrational", and "conspiracy theory" don't really count as reasons. More generally, one must offer arguments and not assertions. — Leontiskos

Of course! I'll go further: discussing our reasoning with others can help us improve our judgements, by getting additional facts before us, and alternative theories. It forces us to think through our reasoning with more rigor, and to justify the various intermediate judgements that lead to the position we're defending.

Good, but do you also agree that if everything is an IBE then there is no intelligibility given that no differentiation is possible? — Leontiskos

Absolutely not. I can't imagine why you'd suggest no differentiation is possible. Do you worry about losing your keys in an interdimensional portal? Do you worry your spouse might be an extra-terrestrial? If you do not differentiate, how can you ever make ANY decision?

Okay, good. So would we say that, at least in some cases, there is the real explanation and nominal explanations are better or worse depending on how well they approximate the real explanation? If so, then an IBE is presupposing the ontological existence of an aitia/cause/explanation. — Leontiskos

Yes, to the 1st question (I think).

I don't understand the 2nd. What's the ontological status of descriptions of events in the public sphere? What does it matter? The appropriate objective is truth, and this is irrespective of one's preferred theory of truth, theory of mind, or the metaphysical foundation of reality.

So would you say that when someone argues for one particular interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, they are not offering an IBE? — Leontiskos

If they're arguing for it, they are probably explaining why they consider it an IBE. My position today is simply that I reserve judgement, and I could go into a bit more detail as to why. I've read defenses of Many Worlds, of ontological wave function collapse, and of Bohmian "pilot wave" theory. Each is coherent, none are verifaible or falsifiable. Also, while it's interesting, there is no interpretation that will impact my life or the real-world choices I have to make daily.

But that doesn't seem very principled. If there is not more than one explanation, then how can you talk about an inference to the best explanation? — Leontiskos

There's always more than one explanation, in principle. Suppose only one explanation is before us, but I judge it very unlikely to be true. This implies there is some unavailable truth of the matter.

Example. An amateur Christian apologist I used to engage with made the claim we should all accept Jesus's resurrection as true, because there is (at least) some evidence it occurred (e.g. the Gospels, early belief in it, alleged martyrdom) and no evidence of alternatives. He was arguing the Resurrection is the "best explanation" of available evidence. But for other reasons - I regard it as grossly implausible. So I reserved judgement as to how to account for the Gospel stories, early belief, and alleged martyrdom. I still think that was appopriate. This general problem in abduction is called being "the best of a bad lot".

Since then, I've read a good bit about critical Biblical scholarship, so now I could proffer some general alternative hypotheses- but I also judge that no specific theory can have sufficiently strong support to warrant accepting it as true.