Since SB doesn't remember Monday, she cannot feel the difference but the structure of the experiment KNOWS the difference.So if she is asked twice, Monday and Tuesday, that only happens with tails outcome. Even without memory, her credence may shift, but because the setup itself is informative. — Kizzy
OH never mind, OF course if she knew it was Monday she wouldn't say 1/3, but what if she was off...and Tuesday comes around and it changes to 0? the chance to change or update belief still exists if tails and asked twice. On Monday she does not know for certain if heads or tails only gives her degree of belief in heads, knowing nothing Wednesday when experiment ends, tomorrow she will be awakened or sleep through the day, she can still guess reasonably participating, I think? I don't know, perhaps I am in over my head here...again! — Kizzy
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