Given that you are happy to pay £13billion in fees, £4billion in fish, £4billion in benefits to EU citizens, to sustain a £95billion deficit in traded goods, for whatever benefit you think you get in return, why does no other country pay the same? — Inis

You can cherry pick stats until the cows come home, but I'm siding with the economists on this one.

I believe Project Fear has such a device, though it seems to be malfunctioning for the last couple of years. — Inis

Sure, and you expect me to believe that you know better than the experts, I suppose? They've been wrong before, so we should just go ahead and disregard what they've been saying?

You can cherry pick stats until the cows come home, but I'm siding with the economists on this one. — S

Sure, but why is UK expected to pay so much, when no other country does? Germany pays more in fees, but is vastly over compensated in surplus in trade of goods.

The customs union cannat be called "free-trade" when it costs the UK so much.

Sure, but why is UK expected to pay so much, when no other country does? Germany pays more in fees, but is vastly over compensated in surplus in trade of goods.

The customs union cannat be called "free-trade" when it costs the UK so much. — Inis

I don't know whether or not what you're saying is true, but if your purpose in saying it is to dissuade me from the notion that our membership of the European Union is the best thing since sliced bread, then there's no need for it. I just think that it's better than the available alternatives.

I don't know whether or not what you're saying is true, but if your purpose in saying it is to dissuade me from the notion that our membership of the European Union is the best thing since sliced bread, then there's no need for it. I just think that it's better than the available alternatives. — S

Being an open free-trading democracy, is always better than the alternatives.

Being an open free-trading democracy, is always better than the alternatives. — Inis

No, it's a matter of priorities. When comparing an open free-trading democracy to alternative democracies, my priority is what makes us economically better off. I shouldn't end up economically worse off as a consequence of your fondness for the idea of open free-trade.

No, it's a matter of priorities. When comparing an open free-trading democracy to alternative democracies, my priority is what makes us economically better off. — S

Many people prefer to live in a sovereign democracy than a undemocratic burgeoning police-state, even if that state invests a great deal of your money into propaganda.

The Brexit vote was proof that the British still value self-determination. Project Fear could not be ignored, and everyone believed that, while the Bank of England and Treasury predictions may have been slightly pessimistic, UK was in for some serious economic problems if the country voted Leave. I seem to recall the BoE predicted 600,000 immediate job losses.

If your only concern is your wallet, it might be worth noting that UK would be bankrupt if it were not for its profitable trade with the Rest of the World.

Many people prefer to live in a sovereign democracy than a undemocratic burgeoning police-state, even if that state invests a great deal of your money into propaganda. — Inis

That's a false dichotomy.

If your only concern is your wallet, it might be worth noting that UK would be bankrupt if it were not for its profitable trade with the Rest of the World. — Inis

It's not my only concern, but it's a primary concern. And prior to the referendum, we were not at risk of going bankrupt as a result of losing profitable trade with the rest of the world, so what you're saying is misleading. We would continue to profitably trade with the rest of the world in or out of the European Union.

It's not my only concern, but it's a primary concern. And prior to the referendum, we were not at risk of going bankrupt as a result of losing profitable trade with the rest of the world, so what you're saying is misleading. We would continue to profitably trade with the rest of the world in or out of the European Union. — S

Less than 8% of UK GDP has anything to do with selling goods to EU, according to the EU Commission. They don't want your stuff, they just want your money, your fish, and £4billion in benefits.

Less than 8% of UK GDP has anything to do with selling goods to EU, according to the EU Commission. They don't want your stuff, they just want your money, your fish, and £4billion in benefits. — Inis

According to the office of national statistics, in 2016, the income from UK exports to the EU alone was worth almost as much as the income from UK exports to the rest of the world (£235.8 billion compared with £284.1 billion respectively). And almost half (48%) of UK goods exports went to the EU. So they most definitely want our stuff.

And, although I don't have the number at hand, given these statistics, the percentage of UK GDP which has to do with selling goods to the rest of the world can't be much higher, so again, you're cherry picking.

Also, you should know that UK services, and financial services in particular, make up a significant portion of our exports. So why focus exclusively on UK goods?

why does no other country pay the same? — Inis

Because very few countries are as rich as we are? Only five countries in the whole world (which boasts hundreds of countries) have more than we do. And besides, I thought Germany paid more than we do, and maybe other members too? :chin:

Because very few countries are as rich as we are? Only five countries in the whole world (which boasts hundreds of countries) have more than we do. And besides, I thought Germany paid more than we do, and maybe other members too? — Pattern-chaser

Of these "hundreds of countries", how many of them give away a £4billion fishing industry, pay £4billion in benefits to citizens of neighbouring countries, suffer a £95billion deficit in traded goods, and pay £13billion for the privilege?

Why would any sane country do that?

Of these "hundreds of countries", how many of them give away a £4billion fishing industry, pay £4billion in benefits to citizens of neighbouring countries, suffer a £95billion deficit in traded goods, and pay £13billion for the privilege?

Why would any sane country do that? — Inis

You're doing it wrong, and I suspect that you're doing it wrong on purpose to try to make the situation look worse than it is, and I'm going to keep exposing you every time that you do this. You need to look at net profit, not just expenses, and you need to compare that to what it is estimated to be after leaving. Economists, who know what they're doing a lot more than you, have done these kind of calculations and worked out that we'll likely be worse off, i.e. lower net profit.

The £95billion figure is not the overall trade deficit figure, which is actually the lower figure of £67billion. And the comparative figure for your £95billion for non-EU countries is a trade deficit of £42billion. (Source).

Here is a fact check on the UK's trade deficit with the EU. By the way, note that about 80% of the UK economy comes from providing services, and we have a trade surplus with the EU in services.

The government must remove the prospect of the catastrophe of a no-deal Brexit". — Jeremy Corbyn

:up:

Someone else talking about political trilemmas in a Euro-context.

https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/143465789704/david-pagnucco-the-eurozone-and-the-impossible

The government must remove the prospect of the catastrophe of Brexit.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/leavers-have-just-killed-the-best-chance-of-brexit-ever-happening/?fbclid=IwAR2iPm9LGjOaN6wtNrCFoQNi1zFSvSlR2YTPTlldbmxMZ-m2FgFJnqkWexc

The government must remove the prospect of the catastrophe of Brexit. — Michael

Democracy is a catastrophe for those whose plans don't support it.

The government must remove the prospect of the catastrophe of Brexit. — Michael

Unfortunately, the exotic spresm that is Brexit can't be unspressed without consequence.

Unfortunately, the exotic spresm that is Brexit can't be unspressed without consequence. — S

Can’t be followed through without consequence either. And as I’ve said before, my crystal ball is telling me that the consequences of Brexit - especially a No Deal Brexit - would be worse than the consequences of revoking Article 50.

Can’t be followed through without consequence either. And as I’ve said before, my crystal ball is telling me that the consequences of Brexit - especially a No Deal Brexit - would be worse than the consequences of revoking Article 50. — Michael

This is strange, because paying £13billion in fees annually, £4billion in fish, £4billion in benefits to EU citizens, to maintain a £95billion deficit in traded goods seems pretty catastrophic already.

Less than 8% of UK GDP depends on selling goods to EU.

A no deal Brexit will simply mean that things carry on as they are (as WTO rules demand) but the UK is free to trade openly with the rest of the world, rekindle it economic links with the Commonwealth, and become a functioning democracy once more. Oh, and it saves £39billion and gets its fishing industry back.

We could leave the WTO as well - imposing its rules on us undemocratically.

We could leave the WTO as well - imposing its rules on us undemocratically. — unenlightened

UK is a signatory to WTO, and trades with the rest of the world on those terms. UK actually runs a trade surplus under WTO.

According to WTO rules, trade between UK and EU will continue under current arrangements for 10 years or until a trade deal is agreed.

I think people are seriously misjudging the mood of the British.

I think people are seriously misjudging the mood of the British. — Inis

The British are desperate and angry. Unfortunately at entirely the wrong people. That something is popular does not prevent it from being a disaster. But you miss the point as usual. The WTO is an international governing body like the EU. We could leave, and take back control. It would be another really bad idea.

Trump: US will quit World Trade Organization unless it 'shapes up ...

The British are desperate and angry. Unfortunately at entirely the wrong people. That something is popular does not prevent it from being a disaster. But you miss the point as usual. The WTO is an international governing body like the EU. We could leave, and take back control. It would be another really bad idea. — unenlightened

As I said, UK already trades under WTO (where the EU will allow). In fact, Germany's single largest trading partner is China, with which it trades mostly under WTO.

UK's single most profitable trading partner is USA, with whom it will have a free trade agreement soon after Brexit, so whether USA is in WTO or not is irrelevant to UK.

Trade deals are being offered to UK from across the globe. WTO is merely a fall-back where no deal exists, like with China or USA.

Even here the officials are preparing for the no-deal Brexit:

If you are a British citizen living in Finland, here is what we recommend you to do:
•Register your right of residence in Finland, if you have not done that already.

The registration might be of advantage if the United Kingdom decides to withdraw from the EU and British citizens are required to apply for a residence permit in Finland in the same way as any other so called third-country nationals.

The registration might be of advantage if the United Kingdom decides to withdraw from the EU and British citizens are required to apply for a residence permit in Finland in the same way as any other so called third-country nationals — ssu

UK citizens already have to register their residence in Finland, and demonstrate they have sufficient funds to support themselves and their family. Same applies across the EU.

Same applies across the EU. — Inis

Except Britain, of course, which has to put up with hordes of Finns coming here to take advantage of the wonderful happy life that we all lead here with our super-generous benefits system and state of the art health service.

Except Britain, of course, which has to put up with hordes of Finns coming here to take advantage of the wonderful happy life that we all lead here with our super-generous benefits system and state of the art health service. — unenlightened

UK is only managing a net immigration from EU of 74,000 per anum at the moment. The 248,000 from elsewhere will help take up the slack.

I don't think there is a large Finnish population in UK, but there are a million Poles, and approaching four million EU citizens in total.

Leave means cleave basically! There are two tribes and their makeup is largely predicted by their personalities IMO. The leavers are largely introverts and the remainers extroverrts.

I don't think there is a large Finnish population in UK, but there are a million Poles, and approaching four million EU citizens in total. — Inis

Gosh, 4 million is a lot, I don't think my spare bedroom is big enough. But back to the WTO, that unaccountable undemocratic overwhelmingly foreign organisation imposing its trade rules on us. Let's take back control, Leave the WTO!