A new extension is required to throw Johnson out of Downing st, without the risk that parliament finds itself not sitting during the period up to the 1st of November. In which case we leave the EU by default. ( if an election is called, parliament doesn't sit for 5 weeks)

So we have trench warfare between the government and the opposition. In which Johnson will try to ram through his deal and the opposition will do anything to prevent him without the risk of a no deal by default. The opposition can throw him out now( well it's very close, it might come down to one or two votes), but there is a risk ( of no deal) which is why they are waiting.

The EU I expect is simply trying not to get involved, drawn into this battle, while also trying not to facilitate a no deal by default, or by accident. In which case they would take the blame for causing it.

It's in Corbyn's interest to wait because Johnson is powerless and digging a hole for himself, to die in a ditch, "do or die". In the meantime Corbyn can bring amendments to erode Johnson's deal, making it softer and less palatable for the ERG, thus reducing his majority. ( the ERG only came onboard with Johnson's deal because there would be a no deal by default at the end of the implementation period in December 2020, which they are gunning for, if this is taken away, their support will fade).

hmmm - the prospect of Brexit being delayed again until 2020 seems unbearable - and I’m not even there! Anyway we’ll see - Monday is going to be a pivotal day.

It looks like Rees Mogg won't be granted a vote on the deal today by the speaker. So he will have to bring forward the withdrawal bill, which will be eroded all week by the opposition, until it has faded so much that it's a dead duck. The first amendment may be a customs union with the EU for the whole of the UK.

It's like that serie Lost all over again. It long stopped being entertaining, is confusing for everyone involved, including its original architects but you have to sit it out because you already committed to the previous 5 seasons.

( the ERG only came onboard with Johnson's deal because there would be a no deal by default at the end of the implementation period in December 2020, which they are gunning for, if this is taken away, their support will fade). — Punshhh

Surely we have to assume that the implementation period will be extended. It was originally 21 months from the end of March 19, and that looked tight. There's no way a trade deal can be agreed in 1 year even if Boris's deal is agreed by Oct 31st, especially if we lose say 2 months of that year for an election and bedding in of a new govt. Both the UK and the EU must accept that. I havent heard the Tories insist on Dec 2020. Once the withdrawal bill passes Boris can say he's kept to his promise, so hopefully there's no longer such a rush..

I haven't seen the deal or the bill, but the commentators are saying that the implementation period ends Dec' 2020 and that an extension must be agreed in June 2020. It is suggested that it was by dangling a no deal Brexit at the end of this period if a future deal is not agreed by then, which brought the majority of the ERG on board on Saturday. John Baron stated this explicitly and I think we can assume that Bill Cash and a handful of the hardest brexiters are banking on this. Also ministers have been saying over the weekend that the threat of this no deal at the end of the period is an important bargaining tool in the negotiations for the future agreement.

So we have the same hardline rhetoric with a cliff edge continuing for another 14 months and considering that the government has been populated with hardline brexiters. This wreckless behaviour is not going to end anytime soon.

You know the phrase we keep hearing in the media, "people just want to get this done", "we just want to get this done", is so disingenuous. Nothing will be done, we are in for at leat another year and a half of this and many years beyond that.

Meanwhile it's bye bye Scotland.

the commentators are saying that the implementation period ends Dec' 2020 and that an extension must be agreed in June 2020. It is suggested that it was by dangling a no deal Brexit at the end of this period if a future deal is not agreed by then, which brought the majority of the ERG on board on Saturday. — Punshhh

Yes but as I understand it, that 'no deal' is no trade deal - not no withdrawal deal, which is what we are threatened with now. I think 'no trade deal' is less of a disaster. It would just put the EU/UK on the same trade terms as UK/US currently is. Okay, a bad deal compared to what we have whilst in the EU, but not a disaster like no deal at all. And a trade deal could be renegotiated by another govt in a few years time if the Tories cant agree one. It's not a once-or-never chance..

Anyway, what is the ERG logic for not wanting a trade deal with the EU? I can't see any advantages..

Anyway, what is the ERG logic for not wanting a trade deal with the EU? — Tim3003

What national or domestic constituency does it appeal to? I suspect there's your answer.

Anyway, what is the ERG logic for not wanting a trade deal with the EU? I can't see any advantages..

I will have to take your word for it about a no trade deal, as I have no information on that. I have heard both a full no deal and only a no trade deal on the media, so I don't know about that.

The ERG logic for a no deal is simple, they simply want to leave the EU in the cleanest way possible. What happens next following a no deal exit is irrelevant, really. Although they each have their vision, or unicorn that they hope for.

Are you aware of the position that the goal is to leave, fully properly, a clean break. For the people who hold that position that is all that matters, they couldn't believe their luck when the referendum result went that way and now they are desperate to hold onto it and want to secure the no deal for the benefit of all of us, even if to achieve it they have to lie, cheat, break the law. We'll thank them for doing it later, when we arrive in "the sunlit uplands". Perhaps they think that we are deluded or something for wanting to remain linked to the controlling EU, or fill in any anti EU rhetoric coming from the Brexit party.

Boris Johnson will make a final bid on Tuesday to force Brexit through by the 31 October “do or die” deadline, amid growing signs he will make a renewed push for a general election whether his deal passes or not.

Johnson has already requested a delay to Brexit, by sending the letter to Brussels required by the backbench Benn act after MPs declined to support his deal on Saturday – something he said he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than do.

But if the government can force its Brexit bill through parliament in time, the UK could in theory still leave the EU by next Thursday’s deadline.

The prime minister will ask MPs to back him in two crucial votes on Tuesday – on the withdrawal agreement bill, enshrining the deal he struck in Brussels last week, and on his plan to ram it through the House of Commons by the end of Thursday. — The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/boris-johnson-in-final-push-to-ram-through-brexit-deal

Yet another nail-biter/deadline/crucial vote/point of no return. They just keep coming.

Yet another nail-biter/deadline/crucial vote/point of no return. They just keep coming.

Yes, there are likely to be some interesting amendments from the opposition too.

Interestingly it has emerged that the Letwin amendment on Saturday prevented a circumstance in which if the government had won the meaningful vote, they would have been able to retract the request for an extension from the EU and we would have been heading for a no deal again. So that was the cunning Cummings plan. It would have forced a no confidence vote this week and a divisive election.

The ERG logic for a no deal is simple, they simply want to leave the EU in the cleanest way possible. What happens next following a no deal exit is irrelevant, really. Although they each have their vision, or unicorn that they hope for.

Are you aware of the position that the goal is to leave, fully properly, a clean break. For the people who hold that position that is all that matters. — Punshhh

I know that is true for the simplistic Farage supporters, but I'd have thought that ERG MPs would have more sense. One of the benefits of leaving is supposed to be the ability to negotiate our own trade deals with other countries. That includes the EU, who are by far our biggest trading partner. Having a transition period will allow that negotiation to proceed with willingness from both sides. If we just cut and run then why would the EU rush to agree such a deal? I know the ERG logic that no deal would hurt them as much as us, but that is demonstrable rubbish. 44% UK trade is with the EU, but only 8% of EU trade is with the UK. fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
So who'd suffer most from the imposition of WTO tarifs?

I suppose maybe they think the EU will keep delaying and ensure the trade negotiations drag on for several years, during which time we are still paying in to the EU and subject to its laws, and during which time a new UK govt could come in with a pro-EU mandate. However, once the withdrawal bill passes we have left and article 50 can't be rescinded as far as I know, so a process to rejoin would have to start from scratch..

From the Guardian article noted above:

"But Downing Street is braced for potential defeat on the so-called programme motion setting out the timetable, as it suspects some pro-deal Labour MPs and a few Conservatives may not support plans to rush it through the Commons within days.

Veteran Conservative Ken Clarke said: “Unless you are prepared to contemplate more expansive debate, there is not the slightest possibility of considering the deal that has been obtained within the time available.”

If the programme motion falls, the government has little chance of “getting Brexit done”, as Johnson calls it, by 31 October."

It seems to me that everyone is wasting time on this nonsense. How can you base any policy on a vote three years ago on a woolly question, which close on half opposed anyway? Nobody bothered to ask about the detail of 'leaving the EU' because it was all about feuds in the tory party and no-one seriously expected it to pass. People, however, were in a bloody-minded, totally irresponsible mood. It is like a Beckett play, only more depressing.

I think you are rather generous about the thinking of the members of the ERG. I agree that the majority view amongst them is that a deal is preferable to no deal, but only a hard deal with a minimum divergence equivalent to a Canada trade deal. But more important than this distinction for them is to secure leaving. They are terrified that moderate (read sensible) Tory's will water down, or lose the prize of leaving, or Parliament will somehow cancel Brexit. Also they might be of the opinion that they might have to secure a no deal Brexit to both secure leaving and save the Tory party. This is because they might only be able to achieve this by whipping up nationalist civil unrest, during an election campaign. Such a campaign is likely to split the party and the leave vote, as I've already explained.

Also I think you are being less than generous to the EU about the negotiations over a trade deal. They have behaved impeccably throughout the process and all the nonsense and delay is on the side of the government. They certainly would'nt be playing games to get a few more membership payments. Also I disagree with any suggestion that the EU is delaying or something in the hope that a more moderate government gets into power in the UK.

if the programme motion falls, the government has little chance of “getting Brexit done”, as Johnson calls it, by 31 October

Yes he has now threatened that he will pull the bill if that doesn't pass. He is like a petulant child throwing his toys out of the pram. Corbyn pointed out that bringing the bill in this way shows contempt for parliament, which is correct. Johnson is lining up for the people against parliament and trying to get his general election ( which he apparently doesn't want).

Interestingly the threat to pull the bill emanated from No10 during the PM's speech in parliament introducing the bill. He hadn't mentioned it and then did later on. Presumably when someone had told him about it during his speech. Proving that Cummings is pulling the strings.

Interestingly the threat to pull the bill emanated from No10 during the PM's speech in parliament introducing the bill. He hadn't mentioned it and then did later on. Presumably when someone had told him about it during his speech. Proving that Cummings is pulling the strings. — Punshhh

Or it was planned to go down that way. Doesn't seem to prove anything one way or another.

Also I think you are being less than generous to the EU about the negotiations over a trade deal. They have behaved impeccably throughout the process and all the nonsense and delay is on the side of the government. They certainly would'nt be playing games to get a few more membership payments. Also I disagree with any suggestion that the EU is delaying or something in the hope that a more moderate government gets into power in the UK. — Punshhh

I agree with you that the EU have behaved impeccably. I didn't accuse them of deliberately delaying, I said the ERG will think they are, and that's one of the smears they will use to whip up anti-Brussels sentiment.

Anyway, the deal has passed now on 2nd reading, so it's now a matter of the time it takes to go into law. Notably Boris insisted 'the UK will leave with this deal' - no mention of Oct 31st, after the programme motion went down. He didn't quite throw his toys out of the pram and go for an election. So I assume he will ask the EU for as short a delay as he thinks parliament would accept. Maybe only a week. The longer the delay, the more chance of MPs adding amendments to the bill and sabotaging it. I'm still not sure whether he'd rather call the election with the deal fully passed, or with that as his campaign's main aim. Perhaps he'd prefer it passed, to prove he's done it, hence his investigating a short extension first. But if he can only get 3 months he'll surely plump for an election and aim to get a big enough majority to pass it unmolested.

so it's now a matter of the time it takes to go into law.

I agree with you apart from this one point. It is probably a Pyrrhic victory, for two reasons, one the Letwin amendment withholds approval until the whole bill has been amended and agreed. So it has not actually been approved. Secondly there isn't a majority for the deal in its current form, the support he was given tonight by the Labour rebels was due to their wanting to add a number of amendments which would make it a softer Brexit. The problem being, if this happens Johnson's support will fall away from the ERG. So he is swapping one group of votes for another, but still does not a have a majority for either incarnation of his deal.

In the meantime he has now gone to the EU and asked for an extension, rather than die in a ditch and he has missed his do or die deadline of the 31st of October. Although I'm not sure how important these issues are at the moment.

This is beautiful. The EU are giving Boris's actions today as a reason for granting an extension.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit-countdown/2019/1022/1084934-brexit-uk/

It's rocket science! Always happy to see an asshole hoisted on his own farts.

Penny for the guy.

the Letwin amendment withholds approval until the whole bill has been amended and agreed. So it has not actually been approved. — Punshhh

That won't stop Boris saying it has in the election campaign. And if he gets a majority it's certain to go through the rest of the parliamentary stages.

Boris seems not to want to discuss an extension with the EU, as he doesnt want one. So he's leaving it up to them to decide on its length. This of course allows him to avoid blame (he hopes) for missing his Oct 31st deadline - ie the delay was a stitch-up between parliament and the EU. He also hasn't tried too hard to agree a more realistic timetable with Corbyn as he knows the bill would be mutilated. So we have the odd situation of the EU deciding the timescale for what happens next. I doubt they'll want the Corbyn short entension for the same reason Boris doesn't. So will it be Jan 31st, and an election at the start of December?

Interestingly a poll Daily Express poll reports 2/3 of Brexit party voters are happy with the deal, so I think Farage's bolt is shot. Also over 1/3 of remain voters now think the deal should go through..

How odd that parliament could pass a law that forced the prime minister to act against his deepest conviction. Has that ever happened before? Usually when the PM doesn’t have the backing of parliament on an important issue, he threatens to resign and then he either gets his will or parliament appoints another PM from its midst (or there’s reelection).

The whole messy Brexit process signifies a crisis of parliamentary democracy and the Westminster model. Because this PM was not elected by parliament but by party members, the assembly is not responsible for executive policy anymore, and therefore it can afford to act irresponsibly. Parliament doesn’t need a plan. It can now be perpetually destructive.

If this novum of direct election of the party leader had not been introduced, Britain would now have had a PM supported by parliament (like it has always had throughout its history) and his Brexit plan, whatever it had been, would have been accepted a long time ago.

As it now is, no one is to blame for the mess. Not Johnson, he’s working for what he believes in, and not parliament, it doesn’t need to believe in anything. The new unbritish system is to blame.

Congau — Congau

It's a problem caused by the hung Parliament we now have. A minority govt has elected a new leader and the Fixed Term Parliament law prevents him from calling an election mid-term without the support of some of the opposition. It's very unusual that the opposition doesn't want an immediate election - the daftness of the no deal Brexit cliff-edge has brought about this situation. I would doubt it will ever be repeated.

I expect an election in the new year. But really I don't think we can predict what is going to happen next. It's chaos, a mess which has in part been generated by the scaremongering and fake news peddled by rags like the Daily Express, over the last 30 years.

Interestingly Peter Oborne has said today that the mainstream media has now become a sound board for the No10 leak and comment factory. "A source in Downing Street" has been manipulating the media in the knowledge that many widely followed reporters working for the BBC for example simply repeat it, without challenging, or questioning the information. He should know he was a political commentator for the Telegraph, a staunch leaver who had the courage to admit his mistake and now talks of how the whole referendum and leave ideology was a tragic mistake.

Are you confident that the British public won't eventually see through this smoke and mirrors and doublethink of the vote leave campaign and now the government.

Another example of the behaviour has emerged today, Corbyn and Johnson met today to discuss a sensible compromise on how long to allow for scrutiny of the bill. After the niceties, Corbyn brought up the issue which the meeting was supposed to be about, the timetable for debate of the bill and apparently Cummings slammed his hand down on the table and shouted no, it's not going to be discussed, or something like that. After which Johnson tried to paper over the cracks. Somehow I don't think the meeting went very well.

Not Johnson, he’s working for what he believes in — Congau

What's that then?

Seems from my perspective that Johnson is winning. He did actually get a Brexit bill passed, albeit with caveats and strings attached, but he's in a very good position to go to the polls, especially with Jeremy Corbyn being leader of the opposition, as by all accounts he's unelectable. I would prefer to see Brexit abandoned, but an orderly exit would be next best.

Either side can't decide whether to have an election at all at the moment. If we get one it is going to be chaotic and who knows what the results will be.

I'm hoping the British public will see through the lies, bullying and destructive behaviour of our government and throw them out. They are doing to much damage

Either side can't decide whether to have an election at all at the moment. — Punshhh

That’s not strictly speaking true. Johnson is champing at the bit, and has repeatedly called for an election, but Corybn has voted an election down on the grounds that it might lead to a no-deal exit. Now that the no-deal option has been firewalled, I think Corbyn will be very hard-pressed to keep denying a poll. Then, I would think, Johnson will campaign hard on the fact that he has a Brexit deal in the bag, and I expect he’ll win.