He called the State Department the Deep State Department. — Michael
Nah. Man. The Chinese have higher ethical standards than US, — Shawn
You mean the CCP? The one that jailed people for months for talking about Corona? Seriously??? — Nobeernolife
you are mixing up ethics with human rights again. Granted, they have to do something with each other. — god must be atheist
I think the quaranteening movement actually can stop the virus from spreading. If all people who have got it are quaranteened for three weeks, the virus will die in them. Some will die with the virus, but the virus in the survivors also will die.
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
But some suspect it will be even lower, possibly lower than seasonal flu. Dr. John P. A. Ioannidis Recently wrote: — NOS4A2
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have. — John Ioannidis
In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. — John Ioannidis
School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease. — John Ioannidis
It's the fact nobody has immunity and enough are sick enough that they require hospital care that will demand all the healthcare capacity a country has. — Benkei
The fatality rate is actually not even that important at the moment. It's the fact nobody has immunity and enough are sick enough that they require hospital care that will demand all the healthcare capacity a country has. The knock-on deaths because of that will mean deaths that can be attributed to corona will greatly increase. — Benkei
Human rights are part of ethics. What are you talking about? — Nobeernolife
you are mixing up ethics with human rights again. Granted, they have to do something with each other.
— god must be atheist
Human rights are part of ethics. What are you talking about? — Nobeernolife
But anyhoo, good to see spending a few billions to save lives is more an issue than spending trillions on wars. — Benkei
I don't think this is quite fair. If they could have just given the airlines billions to solve the problem; some expensive device that instantly diagnoses flyers and so you can contain perfectly, then they would have spent that money gladly. — boethius
Yes, I'm sure his work is bad but I guess my point was that even if he was right it still didn't matter. So the whole discussion becomes a distraction from the fact that the Trump administration dropped the ball. — Benkei
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. — idiot
I sincerely doubt it but we'll never know. — Benkei
It's just interesting to me that approaches are discussed in terms of economics and its long term effects. Where was that discussion going into Iraq, Afghanistan, war on drugs etc. Etc.? — Benkei
We also know that for every positive test, there are about 10 asymptomatic infections. That's
1. Why the wave of sick people ramps up so high so quickly, and
2. Why herd immunity takes over so quickly after that.
— frank
It's a bump in the road, not a plague. — frank
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