Thanks Andrew, that seems to be one of the most sensible articles about how Covid-19 should be handled that I have seen. — Janus
Putting all I've read together, including Andrew M's excellent article, unless extreme measures are taken, the US is going to hit half a million cases by about the middle of next month. Probably 250,000 identified and 250,000 downstream. — Baden
Do you take into account the effect of "social distancing" and the lock downs?Any thoughts on why our math differs here? Perhaps you have a longer doubling period? Anyone else want to check the numbers? — Andrew M
Italians are Italians.I have heard unconfirmed reports that despite the situation in Italy, Quarantine still isn't strictly observed there by everyone. People are still meeting in Cafes and the like. Boggles the mind. — Echarmion
Chinese Red Cross Vice President Sun Shuopeng warned Italians that they were risking lives by not adhering to the novel coronavirus lockdown. He made the comments after visiting Milan in the hardest-hit region of Italy, which has recorded 41,035 cases and 3,405 deaths. “Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by COVID-19, the lockdown measures are very lax,” the veteran of the Wuhan epidemic fight said Thursday. “I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masks.” Sun warned that the resistance to the lockdown will prove deadly. “I don’t know what people here are thinking. We really have to stop our usual economic activities and our usual human interactions. We have to stay at home and make every effort to save lives. It is worth putting every cost we have into saving lives.”
Any thoughts on why our math differs here? Perhaps you have a longer doubling period? Anyone else want to check the numbers?
— Andrew M
Do you take into account the effect of "social distancing" and the lock downs? — ssu
You see for a logarithmic scale to continue, you would need to have people mingle as they did few weeks ago. Or put it another way. Why are there less new infections than before in China. Surely there would have to be tens if not hundreds of thousands dead by now. So is the Chinese authorities just covering up everything? Do you think that is possible in our time? — ssu
And that is a great looking logarithmic scale growth to extrapolate from.I'm extrapolating purely from the reported US case numbers in the table here. — Andrew M
It's not clear to me what your point is. If it's that somebody should have done things differently, I dont see a lot of value in that kind of 20-20 hindsight. People always do the best they can with what they know. People make mistakes. Move on. — frank
That way you have energy to deal with with what you've got. I'm in an emergency room now preparing for a 12 hour shift. Wish me luck. — frank
Even Trump supporters may be able to see this obvious logic considering the time frame is so short; many are impressively immune, updating their beliefs Trump is not to blame for anything in real time, but we will see if this applies to all members of the flock. — boethius
What obvious logic? I agree that Trumps initial response was bad PR, he went all out to claim the problem was under control while it was not. However, I do not see a problem with the actions he took. He quickly (much more quickly than e.g. European countries) introduced travel restrictions, and appointed a Corona Tsar to coordinate further actions. What exactly should he have done that he did not?
I feel the strong smell of TDS here again.... orangeman bad, no matter what. — Nobeernolife
I'm just going to appreciate this beautiful exercise in mental gymnastics, let it stand a bit as a refined and advanced example of the double-think talent, and then completely demolish it. — boethius
So in other words you can not give a concrete example of what Trump should have done that he did not. Figures. — Nobeernolife
So the 0% is bad? — Hanover
I have no idea who you are but remaining humble is my suggestion for a start on how to deal on an interpersonal level with others.I wish your patients luck. As for you personally, you'll get what you deserve in this situation. — boethius
Mitigating actions of a test failure would have been:
1. Had one or two parallel test-kids developed by other companies to increase the odds one is successful at scaling quickly in the critical first outbreak phase (where all reductions in infection rates have the highest return on investment; Tump's a business mad so surely understands that concept).
2. Negotiate to fly-in some tests short term (maybe in exchange) if testing is delayed, perhaps in exchange for money as well as promise to fly back even more tests when things are sorted out in the US. Because, you know, he's the president and can phone up other leaders and "make a deal".
3. Invest and re-organize in scaling tests as quickly as possible once the problems were solved. — boethius
I have no idea who you are but remaining humble is my suggestion for a start on how to deal on an interpersonal level with others. — ArguingWAristotleTiff
I'm extrapolating purely from the reported US case numbers in the table here.
— Andrew M
And that is a great looking logarithmic scale growth to extrapolate from.
But notice that the information itself has an effect here. When you get greater numbers, you get greater panic and more drastic measures. That will have an effect on the forecast and the extrapolation may need what in economics and statistic is called a Dummy variable.
For example, now New York City has 43+ deaths from corona virus. What do you think the effect would be if it would be in few weeks it would be 400 or 4 000? I figure the amount wouldn't be quite high when the lockdown and the curfew will be enforce by police and the national guard, which will stop people walking in the street. — ssu
It's not an attack. It's a prediction. I predict you can't avoid the consequences of an overloaded medical system if you are a medical professional. It's essentially a mathematical certainty at this point. — boethius
I understand all of this is being done.
I fail to see what he could have done differently in concrete terms, He reacted quickly, and as I pointed out, quicker than other European countries (although not as quick as Taiwan and Singapore, I give you that. — Nobeernolife
You can state what you believe to be fact without personal attacks. Saying you get what you deserve was stated in a personal way to Frank. — ArguingWAristotleTiff
This is true, but there is also the crucial moment measured in days just when the pandemic got rolling on. When it started in Italy, Europe or the West hadn't got the pandemic hysteria. Now when it has truly started in the US, the population takes action.Yes, I would expect those things to have an effect. But as we've seen elsewhere, those effects may not register in the figures for up to 2 weeks — Andrew M
Would be even greater if there wouldn't have been patient 31. This tells just how much things are prone to the butterfly effect:South Korea is also a great example of what competence looks like. — boethius
Actually now 8799 cases and 102 deaths and counting.In South Korea, where the virus first appeared on Jan. 20, public officials said the situation was largely under control for the first several weeks, as the first 30 infected people adhered to strict containment strategies.
But patient 31 changed everything. “The situation here was not really serious until mid-February,” said Hwang Seung-sik, a spatio-temporal epidemiologist at Seoul National University, in an interview with Al-Jazeera. “It began to get very serious starting with patient 31.”
Patient 31 traveled extensively through South Korea, even after doctors had suggested she isolate herself due to a high likelihood that she had been infected. The Korean Center for Disease Control found that she ultimately had contact with approximately 1,160 people. There are now more than 7,800 confirmed cases in South Korea, and more than 60 people have died.
I dont have any authority. I'm a respiratory therapist who used to sell medical equipment and now is back in the clinical setting. — frank
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