Attempts were made to do that in NYC. The virus was already present, though. They were too late to contain it. At that point, locking down only saves lives in that it keeps the hospital system from being overloaded so that patients don't die of hypoxia, dehydration, DKA, etc. for lack of any care at all.

Same for the economy. If you're able to contain the virus, you could minimize the effect on the economy. Otherwise, you're at the mercy of the way the virus interacts with your particular population.

Yes, the US did have enough notice, just like the UK they didn't take it seriously to begin with. Now in the UK some commentators are suggesting that we may not be able to unlock significantly for a long time. The tracing app is being prepared, but it may not be effective enough to keep R below 1. Also the virus is widespread in the community, so there might be to much infection for the tracing to be manageable.

There are questions being asked about if the lockdown was called to late, which is code here for, it was to late, by about 2 weeks.

Currently the UK has now recorded the highest death count in Europe at around 30,000 and the death rate is not going down anytime soon, as care home deaths are still increasing.

The economy is in a bad place too and how it's going to be got back to anything near normal is going to be a long time off.

Yes, the US did have enough notice, just like the UK they didn't take it seriously to begin with. Now in the UK some commentators are suggesting that we may not be able to unlock significantly for a long time. — Punshhh

So let's get this straight: taking it seriously earlier would have had a meaningful impact on events if the US and Europe had taken measures in January to contain the virus: shut down borders, start testing and tracking.

That would have allowed the US and Europe to contain the virus. Having failed to contain it, there is no better time to lockdown than when the hospitals are starting to treat active infections. Locking down prior to that won't accomplish anything if the virus was not contained.

Without containment, locking down only saves lives by alleviating the burden on the healthcare system. I don't quite understand why people don't understand that.

Currently the UK has now recorded the highest death count in Europe at around 30,000 and the death rate is not going down anytime soon, as care home deaths are still increasing. — Punshhh

Keeping track of the daily death toll is interesting, but it's not where the significant story is.

It's that we didn't contain the virus and we don't have a vaccine. Again: why isn't this fact being grasped?

oooh that song is good, hadn't heard of them before, thx for that.

I am aware of those points. My point was that in the UK it might require to much tracing (for our tracing teams) to be able to work effectively when we come out of lockdown, due to the amount of infected people at the point of unlocking. If the infection had not spread so widely before the lockdown, there would be less infected people at this critical point.

In the UK there is a lot of virus circulating continually due to what is only a partial lockdown. Unless there are sufficient resources put into dampening down each local spike around the country R will go above 1 and the lockdown will have to be resumed. This is not really about whether the hospitals will be overwhelmed, but whether R can be controlled during a partial unlocking.

You need antibody testing.

Today I ate at a restaraunt and went to the gym. There are still social distancing rules in effect.

Georgia's numbers are showing a steady decline in new infections and deaths. https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report.

Gov. Kemp might've been right in opening the state back up.

Was the restaurant like normal or were they spacing out tables, wearing masks, or whatever?

Was the restaurant like normal or were they spacing out tables, wearing masks, or whatever? — praxis

Only every other table was used. The staff wore masks. It was pretty much empty other than my table and maybe a couple more people.

The gym class spaced everyone out and the instructors wore masks. It was pretty empty too.

So, there are precautions and most aren't getting out yet. I'm guessing it'll slowly get back to normal.

If warm weather matters, it's definitely getting hotter every day here. It's been in the 70s and maybe hit the 80s. That's F, not C.

Same temp here in southern Cal. When they open a lap pool I’ll be the first one in the water. Haven’t gone this long in years without a swim workout.

Our governor was talking about taking customers temperature before entering restaurants when they start opening. Hopefully it will be an oral test.

An interesting report into the way that care homes were required to shield hospitals while there were fears that the hospital ICU wards would be overrun. This included shipping out older people from hospitals into carehomes to create more bed space in hospitals. Sending out instructions to carehomes not to send suspected cases of Covid to hospitals, alongside this there was no provision of testing and little PPE provided to these ill equipped institutions populated by the most vulnerable.

This story is damning because these issues have still not be rectified and the carehome deaths are still rising.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-elderly-sp/special-report-in-shielding-its-hospitals-from-covid-19-britain-left-many-of-the-weakest-exposed-idUKKBN22H2EI?il=0

Will people stay this connected after?

It's unfortunate but I think we taught ourselves a great lesson through it. The harmony after chaos, if, you know, doesn't happen.

I don't agree with bullying a country at all.

That needs to stop. It's not beneficent for anyone. It is not the warrior way either. Sorry for those who are affected.

I guess America is trying to trade it's social problem with China, which is a strike of luck but you can't keep the jokes up for too long before, purely attitude will reverse it.

Be good to all colour, creed and nation.

(why am I saying this, people saying 'they eat anything those' like go away).

If warm weather matters, it's definitely getting hotter every day here. It's been in the 70s and maybe hit the 80s. That's F, not C. — Hanover

If that were C, the virus would be dead. So would you.

If that were C, the virus would be dead. So would you. — Metaphysician Undercover

I'd be fine, but I'll concede most would find it intolerable.

Crank up the AC?

Make me jealous. All we get is a rotten polar vortex.

Guess what? It worked. Just like we kept telling you it would. Early lockdown = less time needed on lockdown = less deaths + less economic disruption + shitloads more options to keep things as they are. Everybody wins. — Baden

:up:

I think it's useful in this thread to see the stages that various countries are at. The daily case graphs (10-day average) of other countries that have the virus under control (such as Australia, Austria and Norway) can be seen at https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries.

Harder-hit countries such as Italy, France, Spain and Germany are almost there.

Based on those countries' experiences, I don't see any reason in principle why the US can't also contain the virus. States just need to apply strong enough measures such that new cases are reduced and can be individually tracked. The stronger the measures, the sooner they will get there and be able to relax those measures (i.e., in weeks, not months).

Daily confirmed deaths and cases graphs for Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Australia, Austria, Norway and the US below.

Daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths, rolling 3-day average
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average?country=ESP+ITA+DEU+FRA+AUS+AUT+NOR+USA

Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, rolling 3-day average
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average?country=ESP+ITA+FRA+DEU+AUS+AUT+NOR+USA

Note that based on those graphs, it may look like the US is heading in the right direction overall. But as this article shows, that appearance is mainly due to the decreasing cases in the New York City region. Cases are, on average, increasing for the rest of the US. So the rest of the US needs to keep applying the hammer for now (as NYC has been doing), not relax measures.

You make decisions based on the best information available to you at the time. The best information available has been that in the absence of the type of voluntary cultural reaction (due to experience of previous pandemics) and track and trace mechanisms (not to mention the highly focused outbreak) that applied, for example, to South Korea, locking down hard and early is the most effective option available to save lives in, at the very least, the short term.

Analysing the situation critically and open-mindedly will get us there. — Isaac

I've been analysing the situation critically since day one and providing sources to back up my reasoning. Nothing I have seen has suggested there is a more effective approach (absent the very specific circumstances in S.K.) than an early and hard lockdown. I've got an open mind on it, but I think it's right to bat for the most likely approach to save lives rather than dither in the pursuit of an answer that isn't yet there while you're faced with arguments void of reason from extremes of the opposing side.

it may look like the US is heading in the right direction overall. But as this article shows, that appearance is mainly due to the decreasing cases in the New York City region. — Andrew M

A very salient point. Not that the Whitehouse won't pretend this isn't happening.

https://www.ft.com/content/b1d9a01d-01ba-4d75-899e-4ff04469a5b5

Another example of the hammer applied well and working:

"Vietnam didn’t just flatten its coronavirus curve, it crushed it. No deaths have been reported, official case numbers have plateaued at just 271, and no community transmissions of the virus have been reported in the last two weeks. On 23 April, the nation eased lockdowns in its major cities and life is gradually returning to normal

...

Vietnam’s first two confirmed cases of Covid-19 appeared in late January. On 1 February, Vietnam Airlines ceased all flights to China, Taiwan and Hong Kong and the border with China was shut days later. After a fresh wave of new infections in March, all international flights were grounded and a nationwide lockdown commenced on 1 April. While other nations announced lockdowns to deal with existing crises, Vietnam enacted one to prevent one."

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/06/vietnam-crushed-the-coronavirus-outbreak-but-now-faces-severe-economic-test

I saw this lady driving her car wearing a mask and texting. I think the danger of texting and driving exceeded the danger of my sneeze making it from the confines of my car to hers.

I'm enrolled in antibody testing research since the UK is a bunch of slowpokes and won't do it for us.

The goal is to finally get a decent model.

I think we allow people to think wearing the mask will keep you from getting it, it's really more that the mask protects others from you.

If everybody knew that, fewer people would wear them.

locking down hard and early is the most effective option available to save lives in, at the very least, the short term. — Baden

So you do get that. Cool.

I'd like to see a psychological profile study of those who take this coronavirus threat very seriously versus those who don't. It's actually pretty fascinating to me. I can say that I personally don't take it nearly as seriously as many, yet I'm fully convinced I'm right about my response. If I lived with someone who was elderly or had a weakened immune system, I'd be hypervigilant, but, as it stands, I pose little risk to myself or those I'm around.

There does seem to be a correlation between political ideology and concern, with the right caring far less than the left. I don't believe that comes from leadership, but I think it comes from worldview.

I have these weird conversations with people about the coronavirus where we both feel each other out as to where we each fall on this issue before we start speaking freely.

And even that depends on the masks. The ones with the hard plastic filters upfront don't protect others from the wearer. In Dutch they're called "expiration" masks but I doubt that that's the correct (literal) translation.

I pose little risk to myself or those I'm around. — Hanover

Why? Have you bought a magic potion? Bojo nearly died and he was a could-care-less conservative too. Probably infected his wife too. What makes you special? Lack of friends?

I think we allow people to think wearing the mask will keep you from getting it, it's really more that the mask protects others from you.

If everybody knew that, fewer people would wear them. — frank

It works both ways I'd think. The only way you can get it publicly is through your mucus membranes (mouth, nose, and eyes). If you cover those, you can't get it.

You make an interesting point though, and I'm not sure it's true, but it goes to my post above. Do you think the worry people have is primarily for their own safety? If that is true, then you're saying we're all selfish and that those unconcerned just don't accept the virus will have a significant impact on them or feel they can endure it.

Yep. The CDC wants people to wear cloth masks. My hospital is giving all its employees three of them.

It's because leftists tends to be collectivist and therefore also worry about others, even in the abstract, and you only worry about yourself or your immediate surroundings (based on the above reasoning). Whereas you getting the virus might not be a problem for you or your loved ones, there are those you'll inevitably meet or might infect via surfaces. Because of that I'd say : stay the fuck at home.

Three? They're saturated in about 15 minutes...

Why? Have you bought a magic potion? Bojo nearly died and he was a could-care-less conservative too. Probably infected his wife too. What makes you special? Lack of friends? — Baden

No, statistical evidence is abundantly clear that the primary threats are to the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. I'm not around those folks. I understand anyone can have an extreme adverse reaction, but if the elderly and the immune system compromised were not at any higher risk than all others, this pandemic would not have resulted in a shut down.