Zelensky government has effectively created the image both to Ukrainians and to the outside world of a unified country — ssu
Of course this will, as you say, increase the casualty figures — ssu
Ukraine did do two very smart moves. By not only saying that all 18 to 60 year old men have to stay in Ukraine, but that this has been at large obeyed is actually very crucial. I — ssu
And to just give out weapons the Zelensky government has effectively created the image both to Ukrainians and to the outside world of a unified country and a people ready to defend it. — ssu
Of course this will, as you say, increase the casualty figures, but that does have when nations opt to have for example universal conscription. — ssu
China is one and a half times the size of the USA.
Check for yourself: https://thetruesize.com — FreeEmotion
Will of the people to fight, to resist, is in every war essential.I have really serious doubts about the effectiveness of untrained civilians to wage the kind of war Russia is waging. — boethius
Now that deterrent has failed, motivation in war is crucial. Motivation is important to endure war. And motivation is important to rebuild the country after war.It's possible this is a smart move against some existential threat ... it's also possible it's a really dumb move if peace can be achieved by simply recognizing what it can't have anyways — boethius
I'm not praising anyone here. (Perhaps I ought to)On the same page you're arguing that Russian military capability is so vast no-one would dare attack it, then praising the sending of 18 year old boys out to fight it. — Isaac
Will of the people to fight, to resist, is in every war essential. — ssu
Now that deterrent has failed, motivation in war is crucial. Motivation is important to endure war. And motivation is important to rebuild the country after war. — ssu
There are many examples where the best technology has been unable to achieve anything while poorly armed defenders with outdated weapons have prevailed in the end. We are seeing it quite clearly for instance in Yemen, where one of the poorest countries one group has destroyed many American Abrams tanks of the Saudis and have captured them intact as the crews have abandoned the vehicles. You didn't see that with American troops. Will to fight is simply important. — ssu
How on earth are you reading...
they need to recognise that Donetsk and Lugansk are independent states.
...as "large chunks of Ukraine to itself"? — Isaac
We cannot stay idle and passively observe these developments … For our country, it is a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a nation … (Putin Speech Feb. 24 2022).
For instance, Visa and MasterCard pulled out of Russia, but how many normal Russians even have a credit card to begin with?
Russia's strategy is clearly to simply siege cities and wait them out.
I think the narrative that the convoy is stuck is pretty naive
On the same page you're arguing that Russian military capability is so vast no-one would dare attack it, then praising the sending of 18 year old boys out to fight it. — Isaac
I'm not praising anyone here. (Perhaps I ought to)
And if you think the Ukrainians are attacking Russia when they are combating Russian forces inside their own country, you are simply totally delusional. The fighting is in the outskirts of Kyiv, not in the outskirts of Moscow. — ssu
However, there is a way to stop Putin’s Ukrainian adventure that has nothing to do with military intervention. That is to go after his money. — TIME
As we look at the menu of policy options being discussed by the Biden Administration in response to Putin’s manufactured Ukraine crisis, many are either too indirect or too harsh. Some, such as broad sanctions, would result in a lot of unnecessary hardships for ordinary Russians, who are victimized by Putin as much anyone else. — TIME
Independent... like Belarus you mean? — Christoffer
So explain to me again why the ethical choice is to keep encouraging young men to throw themselves at an enemy they've little hope of defeating — Isaac
A substantial majority. 84% of households have cards, which are overwhelmingly Visa or MasterCard. 21% have cards using lines of credit. — Count Timothy von Icarus
They also have a better alternative in UnionPay than they did in 2014, but it is definitely hitting regular Russians hard in their day to day lives short term. — Count Timothy von Icarus
No modern economy is autarkic. 20.6% of Russian GDP goes to imports. By comparison, that figure for the USA is just 14.6%. Exports are 28.5% of the Russian economy; for the US it is 11.7%. — Count Timothy von Icarus
Connection to global markets is huge for Russia. China is a major trading partner, but they account for just 14.6% of Russia's exports. The EU makes up over 40% of Russian exports, the US another 4.6%. Gutting 1/7th of your economy (the amount these exports are equivalent too) is going to hurt no matter what you do to prepare. — Count Timothy von Icarus
Importantly for a longer term war, China only manufactures 6% of microchips. — Count Timothy von Icarus
I highly doubt that. The war is unpopular and costing them heavily. They want a quick war. This flies in the face of all their strategy to date. — Count Timothy von Icarus
Western intelligence agencies could have plenty of reasons to mislead about the situation on the ground, but so far most of their limited commentary has been borne out. Open source satellite imagery also seems to suggest this is the case. I'm not sure why else you would want to leave your supply convoy clumped together like that. To be sure, Russia surely has adequate AA along the length of the convoy, but even then, a miracle attack getting through is not something you want to risk if you don't have to. — Count Timothy von Icarus
It's also unclear why they wouldn't want to encircle Kiev as quickly as possible. You can hold most of the area around a city, and if supplies can still get through, your seige won't be effective. — Count Timothy von Icarus
I suppose the same as yours — Olivier5
Many Russian boys within draft age are fleeing their country. — Olivier5
Soon the economy will tank — Olivier5
It is in fact a real tragedy for Russia as well, not just for Ukraine. — Olivier5
All the sources I've read reveal a mixed picture that's difficult to call at this stage. — Isaac
Everyone already agrees Russia should immediately lay down its weapons and go home so there's nothing more to say on that front. Pointless to just keep repeating it over and over... — Isaac
Sarajevo held out for almost four years before the Siege was lifted with limited paths in for supplies. Even before modern food storage methods, cities in antiquity and the middle ages held out for months, sometimes over a year after losing all supply routes in. Hardly an ideal timeframe. Hence the heavy shelling and poorly implemented raids. — Count Timothy von Icarus
Personally I think it makes sense to say the truth again and again in the face of all the liars, so I will keep on. — Olivier5
looks increasingly grim on that front (depending on who you are I guess.) — Count Timothy von Icarus
Yes. If need be.
Belarus, ranked 53 on the United Nations Human Development Index — Isaac
it is a setback for the Russians so far, if not a total humiliation. — Olivier5
scores of war games conducted for the US and allied governments and my own experience as the US national intelligence officer for Europe suggest that if we boil it down, there are really only two paths toward ending the war: one, continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold; the other, a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine
This is a discussion forum, not an interview for an ethics committee. — Isaac
I don't know who you're arguing against. — Isaac
Except that Belarus has just recently become a primary puppet state of Russia. That's not independent, which was the definition I asked about. — Christoffer
Never heard of him. Any good? — Olivier5
He's more qualified than you or I. — Isaac
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