Because you wanted to score a cheap point on a message board? — Olivier5
Okay, it can remain an established fact only for me, no problem. — Olivier5
Why completing the siege of Kiev will change things considerably is that Putin is not insisting on taking the city, and if Russian lines (once setup around the city) cannot be practically broken from the outside, pressure will be pretty high to accept Russia's conditions of surrender. — boethius
The prediction is that Russia will simply end it's offensives at some point and declare it achieved its objectives; as, the land bridge, which it already achieved at that point, is already a major strategic achievement. — boethius
Achievements have to be measured against the costs. Russia will have wrecked it's economy, become a pariah state, suffered grievous military losses, and united the West against it for a security guarantee it didn't need and small amounts of land it already nominally controlled. — RogueAI
However, we also need to know Ukrainian soldier deaths as well. Even if Russians have lost a lot, if they can point to having killed twice or three time, etc., as many Ukrainians, then this can be some form of "military performance" measure (US uses this metric all the time to evaluate performance). — boethius
The ratio of Ukrainian soldiers killed per Russians killed would matter if Ukraine was actually any kind of threat to Russia and diminishing Ukraine's military capability somehow benefitted Russia. — RogueAI
911 attacks 2,977 people were killed,
As of July 19, 2021, according to the U.S. Department of Defense casualty website, there were 4,431 total deaths (including both killed in action and non-hostile) and 31,994 wounded in action (WIA) as a result of the Iraq War. — Wikipedia
Media even started to report Kiev as under siege, encircled, shelling everywhere. — boethius
Newspaper headlines: Kyiv faces siege and UK under fire over refugees
By BBC News
Staff
Published 12 March
FOX NEWS FIRST
Published February 25, 2022 4:02am EST
Kyiv under siege as Russian forces overrun Ukraine
Deaths will range from—
Now (March 11, 2022):
5-10,000 Ukranian troops; 10-20,000 civilians; 5-10,000 Russian troops
If fighting goes three months:
30-50,00 Ukranian troops; 50-500,000 civilians; 30-50,000 Russian troops
By March 11, he is certainly significantly weakened, no way back. Chances of losing power within 3 years, now 50%.
Ukraine says its troops have retaken more than 30 towns and villages since Russia pulled back from the area this week. — Al Jazeera
Putin’s preferred course of action, which focuses on undermining Zelensky and the current Ukrainian political environment in advance of Ukrainian parliamentary and presidential elections in 2023 and 2024 — FreeEmotion
Zelensky is now seen as a hero the world over and quite probably in Ukraine as well. Good job Vlad! — Olivier5
The operation to establish a land bridge from Rostov to Crimea is likely the most attractive to Putin in this respect. It solves a real problem for him by giving him control of the Dnepr-Crimea canal ,which he badly needs to get fresh water to occupied Crimea. It would do fearful damage to the Ukrainian economy by disrupting key transportation routes from eastern Ukraine to the west. He could halt operations upon obtaining an important gain, such as seizing the canal and the area around it or after taking the strategic city of Mariupol just beyond the boundary of occupied Donbas. — PUTIN’S MILITARY OPTIONS
Likely Ukrainian Initial Responses to Full-Scale Invasion
The Ukrainian military will almost certainly fight against such an invasion, for which it is now preparing.19 Whatever doubts and reservations military personnel might have about their leaders or their prospects, the appearance of enemy mechanized columns driving into one’s country tends to concentrate thought and galvanize initial resistance. It collapses complexities and creates binary choices. Military officers and personnel are conditioned to choose to fight in such circumstances, and usually do, at least at first. There is no reason to think the Ukrainian military will perform differently in this case. — PUTIN’S MILITARY OPTIONS
But he might also execute several of these sub-COAs on their own to achieve independent objectives without intending to go all the way to full-scale invasion. We will consider the major sub-COAs here ordered by the likelihood we assess for each and laying out the separate objectives each might pursue beyond setting conditions for the full-scale invasion. — PUTIN’S MILITARY OPTIONS
It would cause panic and crisis in Kyiv and drive Zelensky to plead for NATO help that would be unlikely to come — PUTIN’S MILITARY OPTIONS
You mean ***was*** under siege? Ukrainian troops have retaken the entire Kyiv oblast. — Olivier5
Be that as it may, the Russians can be argued to have functionally encircle Kiev with only 1 remaining road for supply, and the remaining south route in range of artillery.
Kiev is arguably under siege. Few sieges in history are "perfect". — boethius
Key word "why". I'm explaining what Russia was attempting to lay siege to the capital.
Media even started to report Kiev as under siege, encircled, shelling everywhere.
So, if you want to argue it's not a "true siege" or "100% encirclement", sure.
What's important, however, is the the military, political and social dynamic did change once Russia more-or-less encircled and laid siege to Kiev.
In the build up to Russia cutting off the West highway, if you're able to remember 4 weeks ago, there was still talk of potential NATO no fly zone or even just accepting Ukraine into NATO spontaneously etc.
After media at least reported Kiev as "basically" encircled and under siege, mood started to change, NATO taken off the table, deescalation. — boethius
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