However, the Ukraine-Russia situation is very different; pushing back Russia to its borders would not result in a situation such as Isreal and Mauritania where the persisting state of war could be said to be symbolic and there is no real threat. Russia would still be a considerable threat to Ukraine and could re-invade at any moment, the war would not be "over" and Ukraine would not have "won". — boethius
Putin's failure to invade Ukraine will probably lead to his death and/or replacement by someone else at the helm of Russia. — Olivier5
I suppose the regime isn't ready to unleash Stalinist purges on its supporters. — SophistiCat
So what? The point is that a better Russia could emerge from this war, IFF Russian forces lose the war. — Olivier5
Of course, in theory a worse Russia could also emerge from it, eg if a leader even more nationalist than Putin get to replace Putin. — Olivier5
Bottom line is: the future is wide open, Ukraine can win and Russia can change. — Olivier5
the point of geopolitical analysis is to try to tease out what is more or less likely to happen — boethius
https://www.rferl.org/a/scholz-putin-ukraine-ceasefire-russian-withdrawal/32032075.htmlGerman Chancellor Olaf Scholz has urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to find a diplomatic solution for the conflict in Ukraine based on a cease-fire and the complete withdrawal of Russian troops, the chancellor’s office said on September 13 after the two leaders spoke by phone.
It would appear that Russia - having abandoned the Kharkiv region without a fight - has no intention of conquering/holding any territory whose population is not predominantly supportive of Russia and also capable of deploying its own troops to defend that territory.
Although, the Ukrainians were successful in reclaiming a large swathe of territory in the Kharkov region - last week - the weight of evidence suggests that the Russians had largely already withdrawn and repositioned their defensive lines behind the Oskil River on the Lugansk border. — yebiga
With due respect for the fog of war - if we assume the above synopsis largely depicts events as they actually are - then it would seem that the Kremlin is prepared to play the long game in the Ukraine - or at least to the end of the coming northern winter. Putin's calculus maybe that the economic trade war is working to its favour and that European unity against Russia may begin to crumble, over the coming winter, as pressure on fuel prices, gas shortages and food continues to mount. — yebiga
Yet Israel never agreed on to stop a military engagement before reaching it's military objectives.Isreal did not continuously declare "we will not negotiate!" throughout all these conflicts with neighbours. — boethius
I'm not sure what your point is. Ukrainian have tried to negotiate with the Russians and understand that even a ceasefire needs negotiations. Remember the negotiations in Turkey. So I'm confused just what is your point here.So, it's when people say Ukraine does not need to negotiate and can "win" militarily, which is when I point out that without diplomacy "winning" means conquering and defeating your enemy; otherwise, the war just continues forever. — boethius
I'm not sure what your point is. — ssu
Why look at a map? — Olivier5
It is significant because it means that the Russians can be beaten. — Olivier5
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