What would be concerning if no Russian would want (secretly?) regime change. Yet many opt to leave... perhaps the ghost of Stalin is too frightening. — ssu
Putin had a somewhat good run for Russia. — ssu
I can totally believe that. But that's the official line: that foreign countries (the US) are out to get Russia. Many of the Russians that I've met have totally sound and realistic views about the state of their nation. If the US is polarized with democrats and Trump fans, Russia is even more divided with those that believe in Putin and those who are against the regime.... the general Russian population isn't particularly keen on the outward aggressions nor feels particularly threatened by other countries. — jorndoe
That the Russian invasion of Ukraine is only Western propaganda? Sure. — ssu
No. I asked for a geopolitical account by which he might be understood as a rational actor.
— apokrisis
Why would you be asking me for such an account, what makes you think I have one? — Isaac
The Minsk agreements were a series of international agreements which sought to end the Donbas war fought between armed Russian-backed separatist groups and Armed Forces of Ukraine, with Russian regular forces playing a central part.[1] The first, known as the Minsk Protocol, was drafted in 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, consisting of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE),[2][3][4] with mediation by the leaders of France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format. After extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, the agreement was signed on 5 September 2014 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of their status, by the then-leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). This agreement followed multiple previous attempts to stop the fighting in the region and aimed to implement an immediate ceasefire.
A map of the buffer zone established by the Minsk Protocol follow-up memorandum
The agreement failed to stop fighting,[5] and was thus followed with a revised and updated agreement, Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015.[6] — Minsk agreements
a quarter of a million people leaving the country does tell something. — ssu
It used to be called "voting with one's feet", in the good old days of the USSR. — Olivier5
We can just look at Venezuela, Belarus, Iran and Russia itself and notice that widespread dissatisfaction and protests don't topple totalitarian regimes. It's only in functioning democracies were large scale protests can make the administrations to resign.My gut feeling is pretty optimistic this has an effect on the war effort in Ukraine but it's just a vague sense and too many other variables swirling about to trust it. — Benkei
President Saakashvili has made membership of Nato one of his main goals - and Nato agreed in April 2008 that Georgia would become a member of the alliance at some unspecified date in the future. — BBC
Uh, by continuing to do what it has done now. :smirk:The issue under discussion was how Ukraine would be victorious, or Russia not-victorious, through military means, such as the collapse of the Russian state. — boethius
Yes, we have heard your argument that everything is just anecdotal. The quarter million leaving Russia are just anecdotal also. :snicker:An argument with zero supporting evidence except anecdotal that some Russians aren't happy — boethius
Actually the war has lweakened Russia far more than the war in Afghanistan did the Soviet Union. That Russia is using Soviet stockpiles is already quite telling. Meaning that the modern stock has already gone or very limited.For, the US' analysis was that this would be Russia's "Afghanistan" and so weaken Russia in conventional military terms, which is certainly true in terms of using up Soviet stockpiles. — boethius
Again, any evidence this has a chance to stop the war? Will all these people be signing up to fight to Ukraine? — boethius
This also reads like fiction.
I really think people here have a tendency to extrapolate all sorts of stories from a minimum of facts. — Benkei
a geopolitical account by which [Putin] might be understood as a rational actor.
Putin can be a mediocre autocrat and still have more than one reserve plan, he can be clouded by ambition and still think strategically a few years ahead, these aren't difficult tasks. — Isaac
I've been meaning to ask you as an actual professional of these things what would need to be proven for a judge to consider an actor "irrational". — boethius
They all tell the same story: not interested in committing war crimes, thank you very much. I thought they would say they are saving their skin, but it seems they primarily don't want to take part in what they rightly see as a crime. — Olivier5
Has anyone done any sums yet? — unenlightened
First of all, one should look at net flows. People come also back to Russia.Estimates seem to be very variable as to how many Russians are leaving. Has anyone done any sums yet? — unenlightened
STOCKHOLM, Sept 27 (Reuters) - A Swedish seismologist said on Tuesday he was certain the seismic activity detected at the site of the Nord Stream pipeline gas leaks in the Baltic Sea was caused by explosions and not earthquakes nor landslides.
Ukraine must have existed as a society and polity on 23 February 2022, else Ukrainians would not have collectively resisted Russian invasion the next day. What does it mean for a nation to exist? Is this a matter of structures, actions, or both? Why has the existence of Ukraine occasioned such controversy? In what ways are Polish, Russian, and Jewish self-understanding dependent upon experiences in Ukraine? Just how and when did a modern Ukrainian nation emerge? For that matter, how does any modern nation emerge? Why some and not others? Can nations be chosen, and can choices be decisive? If so, whose, and how? Ukraine was the country most touched by Soviet and Nazi terror: what can we learn about those systems, then, from Ukraine? Is the post-colonial, multilingual Ukrainian nation a holdover from the past, or does it hold some promise for the future?
Georgia and Kazakhstan likely have far more. — ssu
I'm skeptical of the NYT and the like. — Manuel
Russia has declared it cannot repair the leaks because of the sanctions. So a bit of hybrid warfare? — ssu
This is the interesting fact: gas to Europe has flowed through Ukraine by the Brotherhood / Soyuz pipelines. Yeah, all out conventional war going on...but don't that let hinder gas trade.Gasprom just issued an ultimatum to Ukraine's gas operator Naftogas. The likely outcome of this is that unless Ukraine consents to deliver Russian gas to Europe at no charge, this pipeline will be cut off as well, reducing the current amount of Russian gas flow to Europe by half. — SophistiCat
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