Ukrainians will fight an imperialist aggressor, which in the end will likely lose just like it lost in the Russo-Japanese war or in Afghanistan. — ssu

Yep. Ought they?

Clueless as ever.

It's a simple question. Ought the Ukrainians fight this imperial aggressor to regain their lost territory? Not "will they?", "ought they?"

They ought, if they want to be free.

Why? What's wrong with all the other routes to freedom?

Are there?

Are there? — Olivier5

Are there what?

Other routes to freedom.

Seriously? You're asking if there's any other route to freedom other than war?

Did the South Africans have a war to get rid of Apartheid?

Which war overthrew the Ceaușescu regime?

I must have missed America's second civil war which brought about full emancipation for Blacks in the 60s

Or England's which gave women the vote

Or the full on invasion currently being executed by a bunch of school girls in Iran.

What a fucking stupid question.

Since 1990. From Wiki

1990: People's Movement I was a revolution to restore democracy in Nepal and end the panchayat system in Nepal.
1990–present: United Liberation Front of Asom launch major violent activities against Indian rule in Assam. To date, the resulting clashes with the Indian army have left more than 10,000 dead.[183]
1990: 1990 Mass Uprising in Bangladesh Strikes and Protests topple the Bangladeshi military government and democracy is restored for the first time in nine years.
1990: The Poll tax riots were a series of riots in British towns and cities during protests against the Community Charge introduced by the government of Margaret Thatcher.
1990–1992: Anticommunist forces led a National Democratic Revolution that overthrew President Ramiz Alia and ended with an election victory by the Democratic Party of Albania, the biggest anticommunist party in Albania.
1990–1995: The First Tuareg Rebellion in Niger and Mali.
1991: The Kurdish uprising against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in Iraqi Kurdistan.
1991: The Shiite Uprising in Karbala, Iraq.
1991: The failed 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt takes place, leading to the dissolution of the Soviet Union
1991: The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front take control of Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, after dictator Haile Mariam Mengistu flees the country, bringing an end to the Ethiopian Civil War
1991: Somali National Movement rebels establish the Somaliland administration in northwestern Somalia, and declare the region independent from the rest of the country.
1992: 1992 Los Angeles riots
1992: Black May (1992) Thailand popular protest in Bangkok against the government of General Suchinda Kraprayoon and the military crackdown that followed. Up to 200,000 people demonstrated in central Bangkok at the height of the protests.
1992: Afghan uprising against the Taliban by United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan, or the Northern Alliance.
1994: The 1990s Uprising in Bahrain, Shiite-led rebellion for the restoration of democracy in Bahrain.
1994: The Zapatista Rebellion: an uprising in the Mexican state of Chiapas demanding equal rights for indigenous peoples and in opposition to growing neoliberalism in North America.
1997: The 1997 rebellion in Albania sparked by Ponzi scheme failures.
1998: The Indonesian Revolution of 1998 resulted the resignation of President Suharto after three decades of the New Order period.
1999: The Iran student protests, July 1999 were, at the time, the most violent protests to occur against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
1999–2000: The Cochabamba Water War in Bolivia.

2000s
Police clash with protestors during the December 2001 riots in Argentina.

2000–2005: The Second Intifada, a continuation of the First Intifada, between Palestinians and Israel.
2000: The bloodless Bulldozer Revolution, first of the four colour revolutions (in 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2005), overthrows Slobodan Milošević's régime in Yugoslavia.
2001: The 2001 Macedonia conflict.
following the 2001 war in Afghanistan which overthrew Taliban rule.
2001: The 2001 EDSA Revolution peacefully ousts Philippine President Joseph Estrada after the collapse of his impeachment trial.
2001: Supporters of former Philippine President Joseph Estrada violently and unsuccessfully stage a rally, so-called the EDSA Tres, in an attempt of returning him to power.
2001: Cacerolazo in Argentina. Following mass riots and a period of civil unrest, popular protests oust the government and two additional interim presidents within months. December 2001 riots in Argentina
2003–2005: Bolivian gas conflict.
2003: The Rose Revolution, second of the colour revolutions, displaces the president of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze, and calls new elections.
2003–2011: The Iraqi insurgency refers to the armed resistance by diverse groups within Iraq to the U.S. occupation of Iraq and to the establishment of a liberal democracy therein.
2004–2004: The Shi'ite Uprising against the US-led occupation of Iraq.
2004–2005: The Orange Revolution in Ukraine. After pro-Russian prime minister Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner of the presidential elections, people took to the streets in protest against mass fraud and vote falsification. Eventually, the country's Supreme Court ordered a recount, in which pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko was declared the winner. This was the third colour revolution.
2005: A failed attempt at popular colour-style revolution in Azerbaijan, led by the groups Yox! and Azadlig.
2004–present: The Naxalite insurgency in India, led by the Communist Party of India (Maoist).
2005: The Cedar Revolution, triggered by the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, asks for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.
2005: The Tulip Revolution (a.k.a. Pink/Yellow Revolution) overthrows the President of Kyrgyzstan, Askar Akayev, and set new elections. This is the fourth colour revolution.
2005: Paraguayan People's Army insurgency.
2005: 15 April Intifada – Arab uprising in the Iranian province of Khuzestan.
2005: Ecuador experiences a nationwide and countrywide revolution, consisting of rallies and demonstrations, rioting and protests in March–April 2005 from indigenous tribes that started with a protest that mushroomed into a widespread uprising and popular movement that led to the overthrow of the government.
2006: 2006 democracy movement in Nepal was a revolution against Undemocratic rule of King Gyanendra.
2006: The 2006 Oaxaca protests demanding the removal of Ulises Ruiz Ortiz, the governor of Oaxaca state in Mexico.
2006–present: The Mexican Drug War.
2007: The Lawyers' Movement in Pakistan emerged to restore a judge but eventually moved to rebel against the military dictatorship of General Pervez Musharraf.
2007–2009: The Second Tuareg Rebellion in Niger.
2007: The Burmese anti-government protests, including the Saffron Revolution of Burmese Buddhist monks.
2008: 2008 Armenian presidential election protests.
2008: 2008 Kashmir Unrest.
2008: A Shiite uprising in Basra.
2008: Attacks in Lanao del Norte in the Philippines by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front led by Kumander Bravo and Umbrfa Kato.
2008: Anti-austerity protests in Ireland
2008: 2008 Tibetan unrest.
2009: 2009 Iranian presidential election protests, leading to development of Iranian Green Movement
2009: 2009 Bangladesh Rifles revolt took place in Dhaka, Bangladesh killing 57 army officers.
2009–2011: A civil uprising popularly known as the Kitchenware Revolution brought down the Icelandic government after the collapse of the country's financial system in October 2008.
2009: The 2009 Malagasy political crisis in the Madagascar.

2010s
Tahrir Square protest during the Arab Spring in Egypt.
A line of riot police in the city of Kyiv during the 2014 Ukrainian revolution.
YPJ fighters during the Rojava Revolution.
The sentencing of nine Catalan independence leaders in a 2019 trial triggered protests in Catalonia.
2019–20 Hong Kong protests

2010 Thai political protests.
2010–2011: 2010–2011 Ivorian crisis.
2010–2012: Tajikistan insurgency.
2010: Kyrgyz Revolution of 2010.
2010: Kashmir Unrest 2010.
2010–2012: Anti-austerity movement in Greece
2010–2012: Arab Spring:
The Tunisian Revolution (2010–2011) forces President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to resign and flee the country, and sets free elections.
The 2011 Egyptian revolution brings down the regime of President Hosni Mubarak.
2011 Post-civil war violence in Libya.
Bahraini uprising of 2011.
2011 Yemeni Revolution, the revolt that led to the eventual resignation of Ali Abdullah Saleh as President of Yemen.
2011–present: Sinai insurgency.
2011: Cherán uprising.
2011: Wukan protests in China.
2011–present: Sudanese conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile.
Iraqi insurgency (2011–2013).
2011–12 Maldives political crisis: Public protests and police mutiny lead to resignation of President Mohamed Nasheed.
2011–2012: Occupy movement.
2012–present: Rojava Revolution in Syrian Kurdistan.
2012–2015: Northern Mali conflict.
2012–2012: 2012 Tuareg rebellion.
2012–present: Central African Republic conflict–François Bozizé, president of the Central African Republic, is overthrown by the rebel coalition Seleka, led by Michel Djotodia.
2012–2013: M23 rebellion.
2012–2015 unrest in Romania.
2013: 2013 Protests in Brazil
2013 Eritrean Army mutiny.
2013: Gezi Park protests in Turkey.
2013–present: Turkey–ISIL conflict.
2013 South Sudanese political crisis.
2013–14 Tunisian protests against the Ennahda-led government.
RENAMO insurgency (2013–2019).
2013–2014: Euromaidan.
2014 Ukrainian Revolution.
2013–14 Thai political crisis.
2013–14 Cambodian protests.
2014–present: 2014 Protests in Venezuela.
Iraqi Civil War (2014–2017).
2014: Abkhazian Revolution.
2014: The Umbrella Revolution of Hong Kong
2014 Burkinabé uprising.
2014: Ferguson unrest in Missouri
2015–present: Yemeni Civil War (2015–present).
Burundian unrest (2015–18).
2015–present: Kurdish–Turkish conflict (2015–present).
2015–present: ISIL insurgency in Tunisia.
2015: 2015 Baltimore protests
2016–present: 2016 Niger Delta conflict.
2016 Ethiopian protests.
2016 Mong Kok civil unrest, also known as "Fishball Revolution" in Mong Kok, Hong Kong
2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt, a failed military coup.
2016–17 South Korean protests, or Candlelight Revolution, in South Korea.
2016–17 Kashmir unrest.
2016–17: United States election protests – protests challenging the outcome of the 2016 United States presidential election.
2017 Ivory Coast mutiny.
2017: 2017 Military Police of Espírito Santo strike in Espírito Santo, Brazil.[184][185][186]
2017–18 Spanish constitutional crisis.
2017–2018 Romanian protests.
2017–2018 Iranian protests.
2018–present: 2018–19 Arab protests:
2018 Jordanian protests.
2018–2019: Sudanese Revolution, which resulted in the ouster of the President.
2019–2020 Algerian protests, also called Revolution of Smiles or Hirak Movement.
2019–present: 2019 Iraqi protests, also nicknamed the October Revolution, and 2019 Iraqi Intifada.
2019–present: 2019–20 Lebanese protests, also referred to as the Lebanese revolt.
2018 Armenian Velvet Revolution, which resulted in the ouster of the Prime Minister.
2018–2019 Gaza border protests, also referred to by organizers as the "Great March of Return".
2018–2020: 2018–20 Nicaraguan protests.
2018–2019: 2018–2019 Haitian protests.
2018–2019 Ingushetia protests
2018–present: Yellow vests protests.
2019–2020: 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests
2019 Papua protests.
2019 Indonesian protests and riots.
2019 Puerto Rico Anti-Corruption / Chat scandal Protest.
2019–present: Dutch farmers' protests.
2019 Ecuadorian protests.
2019–2020 Catalan protests.
2019–2022 Chilean protests, also called "Estallido social".
2019–2020 Iranian protests.
2019–2020: Citizenship Amendment Act protests, in India.

2020s

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Protests over responses to the COVID-19 pandemic – a series of protests around the world against various governments' responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly lockdowns.
Strikes during the COVID-19 pandemic – strikes against wages or low hazard pay, insufficient workplace hazard controls such as a lack of personal protective equipment or social distancing, high rents or evictions, and the pandemic's general economic impact.
2020–2022 United States racial unrest – a series of protests against racial inequality and police brutality in the United States, sometimes in favor of abolishing or defunding the police.
George Floyd protests.
Breonna Taylor protests.
Kenosha unrest.
2020–2022 Minneapolis–Saint Paul racial unrest.
2020–2021 Bulgarian protests – protests against Boyko Borisov's government.
2020–2021 Belarusian protests – protests against Alexander Lukashenko's government.
2020–2022 Thai protests – pro-democracy protests for reform to the Thai monarchy and against the 2017 Thai Constitution and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's government.
2020 Malian protests, also called "Malian Spring".
2020 Inner Mongolia protests
2020–2021 women's strike protests in Poland – protests against a Constitutional Tribunal ruling restricting abortion.
End SARS protests – protests to abolish the Special Anti-Robbery Squad in Nigeria.
2020 Kyrgyz protests, also called the Kyrgyz Revolution of 2020.
Indonesia omnibus law protests – protests against the Omnibus Law on Job Creation.
2020 Peruvian protests – protests against the removal of Martín Vizcarra.
2020 Guatemalan protests
2020–2021 Indian farmers' protest – protests against the 2020 Indian agriculture acts.
2020 United States election protests – protests challenging the legitimacy of the results in the 2020 United States presidential election.
2021 storming of the United States Capitol
Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election
2021 Boğaziçi University protests
2021 Tunisian protests
2021 Russian protests
2021–2022 Myanmar protests, also called the Spring Revolution.
2021 Greek protests
2021 Bangladesh anti-Modi protests
2021 Northern Ireland riots
2021 Colombian protests
2021 Senegalese protests
2021 Eswatini anti-monarchy protests
2021 South African unrest
2021 Brazilian protests
2021 Cuban protests, also called the Cuba Libre movement.
2021–2022 Iranian protests
Panjshir conflict, started on August 2021
2021–2022 Afghan protests
2021 Solomon Islands unrest
2021–2022 Serbian environmental protests
2022 Kazakh unrest, also called Bloody January, known originally in Kazakhstan as Zhanaozen22.
2022 Freedom Convoy
2022 Sri Lankan protests
2022 Corsica unrest
2022 Argentinian protests
2022 Azadi march
2022 Karakalpak protests
2022 Ecuadorian protests
2022 Peruvian protests
2022 Iranian food protests
2022 Iranian protests
2022 Brazilian election protests
2022 Azadi March-II

What a fucking stupid question. — Isaac

What a fucking stupid answer... The situation in Ukraine is totally different from women vote in the UK or apartheid in SA, and routes available there might not be available here.

The situation in Ukraine is totally different from women vote in the UK or apartheid in SA — Olivier5

And all the other countries listed above? Ukraine different to all those too? You're suggesting that the situation in Crimea and Donbas is different to virtually every other country in the world which has, at one time or another, brought about freedoms through means other than war.

Ukraine different to all those too? — Isaac

Each case is unique. History is not done in a laboratory with interchangeable mice, history is not replicable, and hence the course of history cannot be predicted. Nobody can tell with certainty, faced with situation X, that "based on what history tells us, the right move now is Y", because there never was in history a case that was exactly similar to X.

Beside, it's not like there is no historical precedent for war as a means to freedom. If the UK can wage a just war against the Nazis, then Ukraine can wage a just war against Putin's forces.

it's not like there is no historical precedent for war as a means to freedom. If the UK can wage a just war against the Nazis, then Ukraine can wage a just war against Putin's forces. — Olivier5

Yep.

I'm not the one arguing that there are no other choices.

There are two ways the region can move toward freedom.

Fighting a war to ensure control by a more freedom oriented government.

Ceding that war and fighting a series of protests and political campaigns to make the occupying government more freedom oriented.

I'm asking why you rule out the second option. And, more importantly, I'm asking for the expert evidence on which you base that judgment.

I'm asking why you rule out the second option — Isaac

I don't rule it out. The two options are not mutually exclusive and can be pursued concurrently.

Why rule out the first option?

Why rule out the first option? — Olivier5

Thousands dead (possibly hundreds of thousands). Tiny chance of success. No real improvement on the second option.

Let's do a little pros and cons. The pros for both options are obviously that the people of the region move toward greater freedom. So the cons...

Option 1 - Ukraine retake the region militarily and their government continues its moves toward greater freedom

• costs thousands of lives in war
• risks escalating into nuclear war
• costs thousands more lives in food, medicine, fertiliser and fuel disruptions
• leaves little further negotiation room if it fails. Has only one chance (Ukraine can't continually wage war - if they lose, that's it for at least a few years)
• most analysts think it has only a small chance of succeeding

Option 2 - the region is ceded to Russia and we support protest movements and political campaigns to oust Putin's regime so the people of the region can move toward greater freedom

• failure means a slightly more oppressive regime has control of the region (but still evidence is of fewer total lives lost by that means)
• lets a bully 'get away with it'
• upsets Ukrainians who wanted that bit of land to be in their 'territory'

Has Crimea's time under the Russians resulted in hundreds of thousands dead, infrastructure destroyed and decades of debt? No.
Has it risked nuclear war? No.
Has is caused global famines, health disruptions, economic crises and fuels shortages? No.
Has Putin 'getting away with' invading Crimea resulted in a mass campaign of European invasions? No.

So it's very hard to see how Ukraine invading Crimea is going to bring about a net gain in well-being.

Nobody is pushing for WW3 here. We just don,t understand why you guys would chose this hill to die on. — Olivier5

Risk assessment and probability. Is the "defeat of Russia" worth gambling a nuclear war? One issue is if a nuclear power can be so defeated when the stakes are this high. The gamble is extremely dangerous with very, very bad odds.

What is the point of defending mass murderers on a philosophy forum? — Olivier5

This is one of the issues here that we are incapable of communicating properly it seems. I think one can confuse explanations of behavior with defending the behavior.

If I say that no nuclear power would accept humiliation at such a scale, I am not defending Putin's actions, I am describing a situation.

Yes, he is a mass murderer. But so are most of the leaders in NATO too - given very recent history, so that's not a special argument of some kind.

evidence is of fewer total lives lost by that means) — Isaac

There is no evidence of that. Arguably, a thousand year Russian reich over Ukraine would kill many many times more people (over thge years) than a quick war of liberation.

Geopolitics are not a sub-field of mathematics. You cannot base geopolitical decisions on mathematical equations. There are too many unknowns.

There is no evidence of that. — Olivier5

There's ample evidence. We have the numbers killed in the current war and the numbers dead under Russian occupation of Crimea. These are known facts. The numbers don't stack up.

a thousand year Russian reich over Ukraine would kill many many times more people (over thge years) than a quick war of liberation. — Olivier5

Probably, yes. Can you cite a single country in the modern world which has suffered a thousand years of oppression without revolution? Most ex-Soviet countries didn't last more than a few decades before throwing off their oppressors, and we already have the figures from 8 years of Russian occupation of Crimea.

And do you have any expert evidence at all that this will be a 'quick war' of liberation. I'm not interested in your armchair reckoning.

You've provided no evidence at all that continued Russian occupation of Crimea will result in more deaths than continued war, you've given no evidence that the war will be 'quick' and you've given no evidence that Russia's 'Reich' will last a thousand years. We can all just make stuff up off the top of our heads.

You cannot base geopolitical decisions on mathematical equations. There are too many unknowns. — Olivier5

Then on what do we base decisions where there are fewer unknowns? So far you've offered nothing but your idiosyncratic, uniformed guesswork.

If I say that no nuclear power would accept humiliation at such a scale, I am not defending Putin's actions, I am describing a situation. — Manuel

No, you are just saying something you have absolutely no clue about and no evidence for. Uninformed opinions have zero value; and when taken as facts, they even have negative value (are detrimental). So please stop putting out your uninformed opinion as if they were facts. Try to think before you post, and challenge yourself a bit.

Is the "defeat of Russia" worth gambling a nuclear war? — Manuel

Rest assured that no one is gambling a nuclear war. Biden has told Putin that nukes should not be considered, and Putin has said that nukes are not being considered.

I'm not interested in your armchair reckoning. — Isaac

Well then, don't ask questions that require armchair reckoning...

Then on what do we base decisions where there are fewer unknowns? — Isaac

We take decisions based on gut feeling, most of times.

Well then, don't ask questions that require armchair reckoning... — Olivier5

I'm not. There's a whole army of qualified experts out there publishing their findings from whom you can obtain informed opinion.

The numbers of dead in the war thus far are not 'armchair reckoning', they are statistics gathered by various expert agencies.

The number killed in Crimea under Russian occupation are not 'armchair reckoning', they are figures gathered by several Human Rights groups with many years of experience doing just that.

The chances of Ukraine succeeding in re-taking Crimea are not 'armchair reckoning'. They are figures arrived at by experts with, collectively, hundreds' of man hours in the field doing exactly those kinds of calculations.

The experience of counties under oppressive regimes is not 'armchair reckoning'. Hundreds of historians have carefully reviewed the evidence and reached informed conclusions about how such cultures respond.

If you can't be bothered to back up your opinions with research then stick to topics where the facts don't matter

no one is gambling a nuclear war — Olivier5

So considering that...

Uninformed opinions have zero value; and when taken as facts, they even have negative value (are detrimental). So please stop putting out your uninformed opinion as if they were facts. Try to think before you post, and challenge yourself a bit. — Olivier5

You'll have no trouble backing up that opinion with evidence then.

There's a whole army of qualified experts out there publishing their findings from whom you can obtain informed opinion. — Isaac

So why do you ask me? Ask your qualified experts, if you trust them rather than me.

The numbers of dead in the war thus far are not 'armchair reckoning', they are statistics gathered by various expert agencies. — Isaac

You have no idea what you are talking about, displaying all the hubris of the typical armchair cretin, taking himself for God. How many Russians have died in this war so far, pray tell? How many Ukrainians? No armchair reckoning allowed...

The experience of counties under oppressive regimes is not 'armchair reckoning'. Hundreds of historians have carefully reviewed the evidence and reached informed conclusions about how such cultures respond. — Isaac

Oh yeah? Can you list the names of these historians? I'm curious about "how counties under oppressive regimes respond". Like, I am really curious about how the countries under the oppressive regime of the USSR responded. I wonder if Tchekoslovakia or Hungary or Poland ever tried to free themselves from Soviet oppression, and whether they succeeded... That would be interesting to study, no? :-)

You'll have no trouble backing up that opinion with evidence then. — Isaac

No problem at all.

No problem at all. — Olivier5

Go on then.

While you're at it, we'll have the evidence for...

nuclear escalation is an emotional fantasy entertained by some low-level bureaucrats and angry pundits in Russia, and by some knee-jirking western pundits. — Olivier5

The opposition paries are not banned. — Olivier5

Ukrainians are much freer than the Russians. — Olivier5

The only reason they left Kherson was the suffering they went through there. — Olivier5

Russia getting its way in Ukraine,... would result in attrocious consequences for both Ukrainians and Russians. — Olivier5

The odds for that are minuscule. — Olivier5

Ukrainian victory, ...would likely trigger a revolution in Russia — Olivier5

So why do you ask me? — Olivier5

I'm not asking you for data, I'm asking you why you hold the position you do.

How many Russians have died in this war so far, pray tell? — Olivier5

4.

How many Ukrainians? — Olivier5

100,000,000.

Presumably, if we have "no idea" then you'll have no grounds on which to contest those numbers.


I don't see how Ukraine could justify continuing a war which will likely kill another 45 million people as have already been killed when Russia have sustained only one stubbed toe of a soldier who tripped over a tree stump.

Especially when you consider that under Ukraine, 8,000,000,000 people were unlawfully killed in Crimea...or was it 4? Shame we just can't know these things isn't it.

I'm not asking you for data, I'm asking you why you hold the position you do. — Isaac

Which position, again?

You cannot process evidence, though, so there'd be no point in giving it to you.