I haven't made any predictions. — Paine

I never said you did, I was pointing out the value of considering what someone who has made accurate predictions says, maybe they have some insights into the forces driving events, even if you disagree with their politics.

Indeed, the whole reason I try listen to voices from every political persuasion is because people from every political persuasion are involved in and co-determine what happens (to larger and smaller degrees).

For example, the storming of the Capital building in the US came as a shock to a lot of people on the left, but it seemed pretty natural to me having listened to what they were saying, and then basically doing exactly what they said they were going to do. I wouldn't say it was some sort of well orchestrated plan, but we're in an epoch of online mob forces.

I never said you did, — boethius

But you said:

Predicting Ukraine will win when they won't, is not "pro Ukraine" it's just wrong if Ukraine doesn't win. If you think Ukraine will win, ok, why, how, when?

You put words into my mouth.

How would you guess that from my life of work? What is your life of work? — Paine

I don't care about your life work.

What I do know is that I post one video of a break down of a video that Forbs references (so vetted to some degree by a major organisation), with pretty much the bare minimum of analysis (such as the difference between a german army symbol and a Nazi symbol) that one would expect from a journalist, that Forbs doesn't do. The content of the video you can evaluate for yourself, if they're not Nazi saluting but just saying hello and the symbols are "ancient runes" or whatever and totally coincidence the Nazi's used them too, go ahead and argue that.

However, what does it matter that the bare minimum editing work was done by the New Atlas guy, and if Forbs isn't going to do it ... well why not the New Atlas guy?

But, even the Forbs article just gives rise to problematic questions, such as where did the Nazi's go? In this narrative that these groups "were Nazis ... but not anymore" ok, that would be great to know, but who (that is not a Nazi) does the dirty work of purging a Nazi organisation of undesirables? What was the motivation, what was their method of internal-de-nazification, when did this occur, where are these Nazis now that we know were there then ... but not anymore?

However, for you, just associating the person who did the bare minimum journalist work on the issue with the extreme right, and not even explaining what's so extreme right about him (and is Trump extreme right? ... isn't he just mainstream right as a a literal President? which pretty much anyone on the American right is going to defend, so is the idea we can't listen to what any republican says ever?). Otherwise, usually the "extreme right" accusation was people like Nazi's, which obviously the New Atlas guys doesn't like (and we have that in common, so why wouldn't I agree with him on this issue that Nazi's are bad, and Nazi symbols on NATO military equipment isn't a good look for NATO ... why would it be a good look?).

What makes you a fanatic of cancel culture is your idea that you can just start a circle jerk of "extreme right" if even the slightest association can be made with any reference whatsoever and certainly you believe that to be critical thinking.

Now, multiple your fanaticism by literally hundreds of millions of people with various bot farms as force multipliers forming an online mob that can get people fired, maybe you just like to participate in the virtue-signally, but certainly you could empathise with someone who's job would be on the line if they said something "controversial", such as, despite apparent short term success, and even if it really is success, Ukraine may not be able to "defeat" Russia in the war, may choose simply not to make that point.

Predicting Ukraine will win when they won't, is not "pro Ukraine" it's just wrong if Ukraine doesn't win. If you think Ukraine will win, ok, why, how, when?

You put words into my mouth. — Paine

This is just a general point, I don't say you made any predictions. I'm contrasting this "extreme right" of yours with the mainstream media.

The key word in an "if" statement is "if". So, just say you're not predicting Ukraine will win, and, to that extent, agree with the extreme right voices you reference that there is no reason to believe Ukraine will win, you certainly aren't predicting that.

However, insofar as your not predicting anything but just "extreme-right-reference-shaming" me obviously the alternative you have in mind is the mainstream corporate news (since, on this particular topic, the extreme left also doesn't like the Nazi's in Ukraine). However, if the mainstream media makes terrible predictions that don't come true on a topic, why would I increase my confidence in their analysis of that topic? Why wouldn't I see what others, so called "contrarions", have to say?

You keep making rebuttals to arguments I am not making.

You keep making rebuttals to arguments I am not making. — Paine

Ah, I see, you're just virtue signalling that you've found the extreme-right association after 420 pages.

Ok, well, if you want to make an argument rather than say nothing at all, the main reference in the Russia will win or then the actually trying to change that result will likely escalate into nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine is Mearsheimer:



Above is his speech in Romania, which at the time there was not insignificant cancel culture going around that "he talked to in Romania! He talked to Orban!

Is he not credible with is paltry professorship? Or is extreme right? If so why?

If you have no interest in arguing his points, what's your basis of that?

If you are interested in arguing his points, what's your argument with them?

And if you want some analysis of equally credible people who say Ukraine is "winning" in some sense (but maybe at a great cost), this is also excellent analysis:



So feel free to argue something or then just point to whoever in all this analysis you agree with, so others can do the work of arguing on your behalf.

quote="boethius;765395"]Ah, I see, you're just virtue signalling that you've found the extreme-right association after 420 pages.[/quote]

You put words in my mouth again.

, well, those Azov folks befriended the Israelis, no one detained. I suspect they enjoy Israel's warmer clime for their visit.

Meanwhile in Germany:

German court convicts 97-year-old ex-secretary at Nazi camp
^{— Geir Moulson · AP News · Dec 20, 2022}

Did she make a run for it, in 2021, in her 90s? :grin: Anyway, a young peripheral at the time (and with her current age), she was given a mild sentence, no living in fear of harsh repercussions.

And, on the subject of Nazis, they simply don't bother to address the main stream media (bbc, vice, guardian, reuters) reporting on these organisations before this year, don't even try to explain where these Nazi's supposedly disappeared to, the mere fact that only the "extreme right" or the "extreme left" needs to be linked to making making the same point, and everything can be dismissed. — boethius

As far as the invasion goes, the concern (at least that I've commented on lately) is what Kyiv possibly could have done, is doing, to be deemed a Nazi rule — a Nazi rule is what the Putinistas have claimed, their public rationale, and it's bunk. I imagine Ukrainian Nazis are doing whatever such extremists do. Going by the report, those Azov folks ain't it (unless Mossad screwed up royally).

Für Russland ist Selenskyj größenwahnsinnig: „Er sprudelt nur vor Ideen“ ^{(english via google translate)
— ZLIVE-NEWS · Dec 20, 2022}

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attacked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his "lack of understanding of the seriousness of the moment and lack of concern for his people".

I don't personally think Lavrov is delusional, but this doesn't look promising. I suppose, if we're talking propaganda, working the Belarusians, then it does make some sense.

I see where you're coming from. There's one accepted narrative and anything that remotely questions it is attacked as "pro-Russian". I agree it has things in common with cancel culture.

The narrative is so fragile that it cannot stand up to any kind of scrutiny, so the goal becomes to silence criticism. It's used in the domain of public discourse and in the political arena to silence political opposition.

However, I suspect for the "people in the know" as you put it, narratives are just a tool to influence the public, and they don't believe in them as fanatically.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attacked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his "lack of understanding of the seriousness of the moment and lack of concern for his people".

The murderer accusing his victims of a "lack of concern". :vomit:

And again the hubris of Ukrainians not having any role here... :smirk: — ssu

:up:

The murderer accusing his victims of a "lack of concern". :vomit: — Olivier5

:up:

Belarus restricts access to parts of region bordering Ukraine, Russia
^{— Lidia Kelly, Robert Birsel · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

... so, "anti-sabotage drills" starting Oct 11 in Belarus, Russian troops arriving Oct 15, Putin + Shoigu + military staff meet to discuss their "special military operation" on Dec 16, Putin visits Dec 19, Lavrov speaks on Belarusian TV (about Ukraine) Dec 19, ...

Putin says Russian army must tackle problems it has suffered in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Jake Cordell, Andrew Osborn, Hugh Lawson · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

... while subtly diverting/distancing ...

Maybe Putin is pushing Lukashenko's Belarus into the war? That'd be a significant escalation. Would it still be illegal to call it a war? Maybe Poland and the Baltics (and Ukraine) should annex Minsk because of the danger it poses. Wouldn't dragging Belarus in be seen as a weakness, though...? I guess it could be played as Belarus accusing Ukraine of whatever transgression.

Maybe Putin is pushing Lukashenko's Belarus into the war? — jorndoe

Lukashenko is doing a tightrope balancing act. Attacking Ukraine would be simply insane for Belarus. Starting from that the condition of the armed forces or the amount of Belarussian volunteers fighting already in Ukraine, one of the more stupid things to do. Yet once Belarus is such an important ally to Russia and for Russia the ability to use Belarussian territory and airspace as a safe zone from where to attack is already a huge factor. And I think the Belarussians and Lukashenko know this very well.

But I guess for Lukashenko rhetoric that hasn't got anything to do with reality is totally normal.

I guess talks are looking unlikely by either side at the moment.

Kremlin says no chance of Ukraine talks as Zelenskiy travels to Washington ^{(via jpost, alarabiya)
— Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

Didn't really seem like there was much chance earlier, either.

The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed during this time. And these realities indicate that new subjects have appeared in the Russian Federation. They appeared as a result of referendums that took place in these territories. Without taking these new realities into account, no kind of progress is possible. — Dmitry Peskov (Dec 13, 2022)

Crimea Donetsk Kherson Luhansk Zaporizhzhia constitute something in the range of a quarter of Ukraine, where Russia occupies a bit less at the moment, a sizeable part of Ukraine.

Any takeaways from Zelenskyy's visit to the US, apart from PR I mean?
(At least it's good to see that disagreement is open/unblocked (unlike ...), e.g. Gaetz, Boebert, though I'll have to admit finding it strange why anyone would vote for Boebert.)

Ukraine welcomes 'transparency' from GOP scrutiny of war aid, ambassador says
^{— ABC News via MSN · Dec 18, 2022}

... The Ukrainians did prepare a bit.

One lever is that if Russia meets certain demands of the international community, such as withdrawing from the areas occupied since the beginning of the war, the sanctions imposed as a result can be suspended. We have to increase the diplomatic pressure so that exactly that happens. — Martin Schirdewan (Dec 22, 2022)

That might be a bit optimistic; seems doubtful that Putin + team would get into talks on that background.

EDIT: Putin commented ...

Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Peter Graff, Frances Kerry · Reuters · Dec 22, 2022}

Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war. We will strive for an end to this, and the sooner the better, of course. I have said many times: the intensification of hostilities leads to unjustified losses. All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track. Sooner or later, any parties in a state of conflict sit down and make an agreement. The sooner this realization comes to those who oppose us, the better. We have never given up on this. An antidote [to the Patriot air defense system] will always be found. So those who do it are doing it in vain. It's just prolonging the conflict, that's all. — Putin

What stands out with the usual "unjustified losses", "prolonging the conflict", is that he could give the order now. Unless there are others (forcefully) expecting Russia to continue (and "crack" defense shielding), like people that ought to take up knitting. Maybe there's nervousness in the Kremlin about the Ukrainian support.

EDIT: Zakharova (peripherally) and Darchiev commented ...

Russia denounces EU for granting Bosnia candidacy status
^{— Daria Sito-Sucic, Tomasz Janowski · Reuters · Dec 23, 2022}

In the context of the current situation in the world and the West's expansionist line, it is obvious that this decision was primarily prompted by a task of the total geopolitical conquering of the region. — Maria Zakharova

Russian diplomat says NATO instructors must leave Ukraine before talks can start
^{— Edmund Klamann · Reuters · Dec 23, 2022}

No talks on security guarantees without recognition of true Ukrainian situation — diplomat
^{— TASS · Dec 23, 2022}

It will be premature to launch any serious negotiations on security guarantees in the context of Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic region as long as weapons and funds are being pumped into [Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s] regime, as long as US and NATO servicemen/mercenaries/instructors remain in the country and unless certain practical developments on the ground are recognized. — Alexander Darchiev

Taken together: No foreigners (EU bad too by the way), no aid, a fifth is now part of Russia, period, Ukraine to be on their own (and no voice in the matter) subject to Russian plans.

The mercs are on the move they say.

US believes Wagner mercenary group is expanding influence and took delivery of North Korean arms
^{— Kevin Liptak · CNN · Dec 22, 2022}

In certain instances, Russian military officials are actually subordinate to Wagner’s command. It’s pretty apparent to us that Wagner is emerging as a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries. [...] It seems as though Mr. Prigozhin is willing to just throw Russian bodies into the meat grinder in Bakhmut. In fact, about 1,000 Wagner fighters have been killed in the fighting in just recent weeks, and we believe that 90% of those 1,000 fighters were, in fact, convicts. [...] It’s all about how good he looks to Mr. Putin, and how well he’s regarded at the Kremlin. In fact, we would go so far as to say that his influence is expanding. — John Kirby

Everyone knows that it’s been a long time since North Korea has supplied weapons to the Russian Federation. And no other such attempts have even been made. Therefore, these arms deliveries from the DPRK are nothing more than gossip and speculation. — Yevgeny Prigozhin

Allegedly, prisoners with "serious medical conditions" are fair game, and Navalny of all people.

Navalny: mercenary boss visited his jail to recruit for Ukraine war
^{— Alex Richardson · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

No one can deprive a person of the right to defend his motherland, his mother and his family by all available means. — Yevgeny Prigozhin

The foundations of law are being destroyed in Russia for the sake of a future defeat in a shameful war. — Alexei Navalny

With recruiting from state prisons, granting pardons, whatever, those groups (Wagner, Rusich, ...) are already plugged into the system. But how much of a difference are they making? Can they become a political force in Russia?

Meanwhile, Dnipro, Ukraine, Ukrainian soldier sips coffee amid firefight (52s). Certainly, coffee is a requirement in any civilized society, but... :D

. But how much of a difference are they making? Can they become a political force in Russia? — jorndoe

Prison inmates etc. don't make good soldiers, on the contrary. But it tells about the attitude...

The whole system is designed for there not to emerge any kind of power bloc that could rival Putin's power. That is the simple reason just why the Russian Army was and is basically so tiny even if armed forces in all are over 1 million strong (and now more). A Mercenary group and a Muslim warlord that runs a small part of Russia cannot overthrow Putin, but they know their worth and can say truthfully how bad the special military operation is going.

In truth this "separation" of military has had serious disadvantages in this war: the surprising advances of Ukraine in Kharkiv region earlier happened because the forces were mainly the National Guard units, which were designed for internal security. Fighting protesters and fighting an enemy army are two different things. Yet what should be needed to fight this war, a large Russian Army with unified command, would hand too much power to the generals from Putin.

Just like Hitler had both the Wehrmacht and the SS.

Vladimir Putin faces legal challenge after calling the war in Ukraine a "war"

The opposition councillor who made the legal challenge said he knew it would go nowhere, but filed it to expose the "mendacity" of the system.

A St Petersburg politician has asked prosecutors to investigate Russian President Vladimir Putin for using the word "war" to describe the conflict in Ukraine, accusing the Kremlin chief of breaking his own law.

Key points:Vladimir Putin's reference to "war" runs afoul of the Kremlins laws against so-called fake newsThe legal challenge isn't expected to affect the Russian presidentInternal critics of Russia's war have previously faced harsh repercussions

Mr Putin has for months described his invasion as a "special military operation".

He signed laws in March that prescribe steep fines and jail terms for discrediting or spreading "deliberately false information" about the armed forces, putting people at risk of prosecution if they call the war by its name.

But he departed from his usual language on Thursday when he told reporters:

"Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war."

Nikita Yuferev, an opposition councillor in the city where Mr Putin was born, said he knew his legal challenge would go nowhere, but he had filed it to expose the "mendacity" of the system.

"It's important for me to do this to draw attention to the contradiction and the injustice of these laws that he [Putin] adopts and signs but which he himself doesn't observe," he told Reuters.

"I think the more we talk about this, the more people will doubt his honesty, his infallibility, and the less support he will have."

In his challenge, filed in an open letter, Mr Yuferev asked the prosecutor general and interior minister to "hold [Putin] responsible under the law for spreading fake news about the actions of the Russian army".

Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers
Russia’s president built a power structure designed to deliver him the information he wants to hear, feeding into his miscalculations on the Ukraine war

This article is based on months of interviews with current and former Russian officials and people close to the Kremlin who broadly described an isolated leader who was unable, or unwilling, to believe that Ukraine would successfully resist. The president, these people said, spent 22 years constructing a system to flatter him by withholding or sugarcoating discouraging data points. — The Wall Street Journal

Extremists...

Secret Service Members Found To Be Part of Far-Right Extremist Group—Report
^{— Darragh Roche · Newsweek vis MSN · Dec 13, 2022}

2018 Chemnitz protests
^{— Wikipedia · ongoing}

Some reemergence lately...

White Crusade: How to Prevent Right-Wing Extremists from Exploiting the Internet (pdf)
^{— Christina Schori Liang, John Cross · GCSP · Jul 2020}

Anyway, warring breeds hate. I'm expecting some of that among Ukrainians.

:/

Yes, ultranationalists are much alike in their way of identifying themselves through who they wish to expel or worse.

Eastern European nations have the extra twist of having had some of their populations participate in the Shoah. Other groups fought for autonomy against the Red Army or against the Germans depending on who was seen as the bigger threat. Ukraine had the special attention of Stalin before the war when much of the population was starved to death in order to eliminate the Kulaks. The swirling series of conflicting ends defies simple categories. The groups mentioned have a number of overlaps that History still has not resolved.

But to return to your point, Ukraine does have a lot on its plate if it survives.

Eastern European nations have the extra twist of having had some of their populations participate in the Shoah. Other groups fought for autonomy against the Red Army or against the Germans depending on who was seen as the bigger threat. Ukraine had the special attention of Stalin before the war when much of the population was starved to death in order to eliminate the Kulaks. The swirling series of conflicting ends defies simple categories. The groups mentioned have a number of overlaps that History still has not resolved. — Paine

I think the biggest problem is that basically Eastern European history isn't even looked at itself, but we in the West focus on the region either as a theatre for the implementation of the Holocaust or a geographical area where Germany and Soviet Union clashed during WW2. And then afterwards that these countries were either under Soviet rule or were their satellite countries. Some Katyn massacre is a side note some might know, but otherwise there is actually blissful ignorance especially what the Soviet Union did in the areas it occupied.

The real problem is that naturally during Soviet times anything critical to Soviet rule wasn't tolerated, history was only a tool for Soviet propaganda (and in Putin's Russia still is) and there wasn't much if any study what happened behind the Iron Curtain. Huge events, like just how long Soviet Union faced an insurgency against it's rule in the Baltics (and other places) is something people really don't know. That every tenth Lithuanian was deported to gulags hardly matters and the new countries simply cannot voice their own history.

Russian propaganda, which wants to white wash Stalin now, eagerly has played and will play the Hitler card and tries especially to portray for the American and West European audience East Europeans as nazi sympathizers and racists. After all, why would you support people who neonazis? And this works. This is evident in the case of Ukraine and obvious even in this thread, where a favorite subject has been for some to portray (and thus back up Putin's claims) Ukrainians being ruled by neonazis.

Yes, the Iron Curtain kept events and narratives out of view. It also put a lot of traumas in suspended animation. Dealing with complicity and resistance in each country was delayed when compared to the dialogue in Western Europe. As an American, I have to admit that my education of the region was blank in that regard until I became interested in the Nineties.

Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has participated in the support and encouragement of European and U.S. ultranationalists. Some of that is geared toward normalizing their agendas as discussed here by ORF. The violent and terrorist end of the spectrum can be seen in groups like the Russian Imperialist Movement. The international quality of that group is reflected in reports such as the following from OSCE:

Swedish investigators discovered that Thulin and another accomplice had received weapons training in St. Petersburg from the Russian paramilitary group Partizan. Partizan runs weapons-training courses on behalf of an ultranationalist organization called the Russian Imperial Movement, which has avidly supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian Imperial Movement was previously designated by the U.S. Department of State as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization in April 2020 for providing training for acts of terrorism. Despite the all-encompassing crackdown on domestic civil society groups across Russia, curiously the Russian Imperial Movement continues to operate.

Now, this element does not prove that the nation is ruled by this contingent alone. Russia does go pretty far in letting them think they are calling the shots. The brutality of the rules of engagement does nothing to belie that impression. At some point, actions reveal more than statements of intent.

(link injected by me)

Despite the all-encompassing crackdown on domestic civil society groups across Russia, curiously the Russian Imperial Movement continues to operate. — OSCE

... and Rusich ... :/ The invasion wasn't about that stuff anyway. A ruse, an excuse.

And Viktor Bout busts out of prison to run to that end of the field.

Neil Young put it best: "A different story for every set of eyes."

(link injected by me)

Despite the all-encompassing crackdown on domestic civil society groups across Russia, curiously the Russian Imperial Movement continues to operate.
— OSCE

... and Rusich ... :/ The invasion wasn't about that stuff anyway. A ruse, an excuse. — jorndoe

Why would you go after those organizations you sponsor?

It fits perfectly the bullshit narrative which Russian propaganda is based on. That the cause is to fight "neonazis" while promoting and supporting neonazis and the far right both in Russia and abroad. I first noticed this absurdity few years ago when Finnish neonazi groups invited Russian far-right groups to "celebrate" Finnish independence. It's as odd as Russian Imperial Movement celebrating Karl XII's memorial day in Sweden. Perhaps they were there celebrating the defeat of Karl XII by Peter the Great? Then of course, the memorial day of the battle of Pultava would be the proper date.

Lavrov delivers a bid for peace:

"The enemy is well aware of our proposals for the demilitarization and denazification of the regime-controlled territories and the elimination of threats to Russian security from there, including our new territories (the DNR, LNR, and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions)," Lavrov said, repeating false accusations of Nazism against Ukraine used by Moscow in an attempt to justify its invasion.
"There is just one thing left to do: to fulfill them before it's too late. Otherwise the Russian army will take matters into its own hands.
"With regard to the duration of the conflict, the ball is now in the court of Washington and its regime. They can stop this futile resistance at any moment."

"Resistance is futile!"

They just can't help acting like movie supervillains, can they?

In related news: Putin gives eight golden ‘rings of power’ to CIS leaders, keeping another for himself